1Prediction 1: National's vote has been forced down to 45%. Prediction 2: There is a 45% probability of National's candidate Paul Goldsmith winning the Epsom electorate. Prediction 3: After the minor party leaders' debate last night, the Greens are at 11.5%, NZ First at 4.7%, Act at 2.5%, Mana at 1.9%, Maori Party at 1.3% and United Future at 1%.