Due to the live nature of Tonight, we apologise for the lack of captions for some items. First, the outrage over proposed education cuts. Now there's a lesson for John Key in our latest political poll. Three inquiries begin to find out why a woman died while being breath-tested in a booze bus. And a jubilee spectacular fit for a queen. A million people line the Thames to watch the royal flotilla. Good evening. After shrugging off a spate of controversies, the Government's Teflon could be wearing thin. Our latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows National's popularity on the slide. Taken just after the Budget hit the education sector, the poll has the party dipping below 50% support for the first time in two years. Political editor Corin Dann has the details. Budgets these days are designed to be low-key affairs with few surprises. ALL CHANT: Heck no, Hekia! Try telling that to teachers, not to mention students seething about changes to loans and allowances. STUDENTS CHANT Labour's had its own troubles ` Shane Jones stood down and facing an inquiry into an immigration decision he made while a minister in 2008. Tonight's poll has National down four points to 47%, with Labour the main beneficiary. The Greens have also climbed two points to 13%, while NZ First is down one to just 2%. ACT, the Conservative, Maori and Mana parties all remain steady on 1%. So how would this poll translate into seats in Parliament? Well, National would still have the most at 58. Add in a seat each from United Future and ACT, and the centre-right would have 60 ` one short of a majority, meaning they'd need support, most likely from the Maori Party, to govern. The centre-left block of the Labour Party, Greens and Mana has edged closer to a majority in this poll, with 59 seats. It's assumed that all existing electorate seats are held. To the leadership race, and while Labour's David Shearer has been busy trying to prove he has the X-factor, the song remains the same for now. John Key is steady in this poll, with 48% still wanting him as prime minister. David Shearer has climbed three, though, and is now almost on a par with where Labour's previous leader Phil Goff was during the last election. Plenty, then, for John Key to think about while in the UK for the jubilee celebrations. Is this poll just a blip or the start of something more serious? Earlier I asked Corin if the backlash over the education cuts posed a real threat to the Government. It is dangerous for them, because they've got teachers' groups meeting tomorrow. They're planning further action, and talk of` we've heard talk of industrial action as well. Labour will be really buoyed by this; the Greens as well. So they're gonna be coming at the government very hard, and, of course, John Key isn't here. He's in Europe, so they're gonna be on their own to some extent, him being their biggest asset at 48% in this poll for preferred prime minister. The Greens have wound up their annual meeting by attacking both major parties. Russel Norman says National, like the Labour government before it, seems to think NZ can just grow its way out of long-term problems, such as high debt. And to kick-start that elusive growth, they've backed every get-rich-quick scheme they can think of. We've got asset sales, we've got risky mining, we've got dairy intensification, we've even got casinos. Russel Norman says his party would boost the economy by investing in green technology and clean energy. He says it'd pay for it with some of the $14 billion National's set aside for motorways. Police are still trying to determine exactly what happened when a woman (56) died while being breath-tested last night. They say the Hamilton woman died of natural causes, but three separate investigations will look into her death. Donna-Marie Lever reports. Elizabeth Gilbertson was stopped and taken aboard this booze bus to be breath-tested. All fairly routine, until moments into the test she collapsed and died in the arms of police. It's upsetting for the family to have this occur in their, uh, in their group, but it's also upsetting for the police to have someone who they are trying to save die in their arms. The 56-year-old was driving alone and was stopped along this road for a routine breath-screening test, but she repeatedly failed to complete it. There may or may not have been an underlying condition that has prevented her physically completing those tests. It was during those attempts she fell from her seat, hitting her head, but post-mortem results show that didn't kill her, and it's likely she died of natural causes. At this stage there's still some forensic testing to be completed. When that's completed, we'll have a better idea of what the real cause of death is. The four police on site gave her CPR until the ambulance arrived. She was worked on for 40 minutes. Police are providing support to staff involved and are investigating internally. Donna-Marie Lever, ONE News. With less than eight hours till the holiday period ends, the road toll is still standing at seven. But more detail has emerged on the crash that killed four farmhands near Putorino in northern Hawke's Bay. A publican's confirmed that the men bought 48 bottles of beer on Saturday night. The wreck was discovered at 7.30 yesterday morning. To the Queen's birthday honours list now, and at the very top, Prince Philip has been awarded this country's highest honour. The Duke of Edinburgh, along with Sir Peter Jackson, Dame Malvina Major, and Dame Margaret Bazley have all been made a member of the Order of NZ. Meanwhile, the former All Black and Warrior, who's battled depression, is now Sir JK. John Kirwan is one of four knighted. The others being long-time Labour MP Michael Cullen, former Telecom boss Roderick Deane, and diplomat Maarten Wevers. And Fashion Week founder Pieter Stewart, broadcaster Beverley Wakem, and June Mariu for services to Maori, have all been made dames. Here's what some had to say about their awards. Life wouldn't change. It's just part` I guess part of my world that people matter and people are there to work with me. I am what those people have made me, through being with me and supporting me. I think there's a recognition of the pressure and the roles, and of what people do in politics and the kind of role I performed. So it's very nice to get it, in a funny way, from a government of the opposite hue. If the word sir can, you know, give more people hope who are suffering, then I thought it was important to accept, and, uh, I just felt a little bit, you know, humbled by it all, really. Just ahead ` the Scott Guy murder accused goes on trial tomorrow. Nigeria counts the dead after a plane comes down in the midst of Africa's largest city. And soaking rain doesn't deter a million-strong crowd gathered for a royal extravaganza. 1 Our stock market looks set for a torrid day tomorrow after world markets slumped over the weekend, the Australian index hitting a 6-month low today, dipping 2% to well below 4000. Asian markets also tumbled. Tokyo stocks are now at a 28-year low. Investors around the world have been spooked since late last week, fearing a triple whammy of Eurozone break-up, a relapse in the US economy fearing a triple whammy of eurozone break-up, a relapse in the US economy and a sharp slowdown in China. The trial of the man accused of murdering Scott Guy is set to get underway in Wellington tomorrow. Simon Bradwell looks back at the case that shocked the small farming community of Feilding. Who could have imagined as Ewan MacDonald carried the body of his brother-in-law, Scott Guy, that one day he would be charged with killing him? Shot at the gate of his Feilding farm early on a July morning two years ago. This is like someone's put their hand in and just pulled a piece out. Scott Guy was a man of the land, an expert horseman, and the father of one boy. His wife, Kylee, was pregnant with their second. As 40 police officers searched for clues, his family searched for answers. He was very much loved. He was very much loved. Um, it's` it's really quite bizarre, you know. We've got no idea what happened, or why. Ewan McDonald was among the mourners at the funeral eight days later. His wife, Anna, was Scott Guy's sister. Two weeks after the crime, police appealed for information about three Labrador puppies like these that went missing from Guy's farm around the time of the murder. After six weeks, whoever took a shotgun to Scott Guy was still at large. It ruined our lives, my` they've taken a wonderful, beautiful father away from his children, his sons. Then, nine months after the shooting, Ewan MacDonald was charged with murder, an accusation he strongly denied. It's in this dock in the High Court in Wellington that Ewan MacDonald will face trial, after the judge moved the case from Palmerston North because jurors there could be affected by rumour and speculation. Now, almost two years after Scott Guy's death, the speculation ends and the trial begins. Simon Bradwell, ONE News. Nigeria's declared three days of mourning after a plane ploughed into a built-up area in Lagos. Crowds of onlookers hampered rescue efforts after the passenger jet crashed into the country's densly populated commercial heart. The BBC's Will Ross is there. PEOPLE SHOUT All that's left of the aircraft is this smouldering, charred wreckage. There were more than 150 passengers and crew on board. As first feared, none of them survived. It crashed in a densely populated area of Lagos, causing more casualties on the ground. People reported hearing a deafening explosion at the moment of impact. The exact cause of the crash is not yet known. The aircraft was coming in to land at Lagos' busy airport from the Nigerian capital, Abuja. The plane was owned by the Indian company Dana Air ` a relative newcomer to Nigeria's competitive domestic market. The airline had built up a good reputation, although last month a similar Dana Air plane made an emergency landing in Lagos, due to a technical fault. Nigeria does not have a good air-safety record, with three similar incidents in the last decade. While the investigation into this crash continues, the Nigerian president has called for three days of national mourning. Officials have confirmed one of the passengers was a leading oil official. Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer. The royal jubilee celebrations are set for the next big event tonight as the likes of Stevie Wonder, Sir Paul McCartney and Madness perform for the Queen at Buckingham Palace. This morning, despite typically worsening weather, a million-strong crowd crammed vantage points along the River Thames for a thousand-boat river pageant. Europe correspondent Garth Bray was there. Happy and glorious, and perhaps just a little chilled, the Queen marked 60 years of public service as the English summer lived up to all expectations ` low cloud cancelled a flypast, but river-borne celebrations went on undeterred. ALL SING: # Whakaaria mai. # Before John Key boarded this vessel behind the royal barge, the Prime Minister called to congratulate three distinctly NZ crews. It's not gonna happen again in our lifetimes again, probably, so it's quite a big deal. Was it hard getting here? Uh, yeah, there was a lot of fundraising involved. And not a cent came from taxpayers, while the Government spent $200,000 to put a waka on the water. As NZers took to the Thames, organisers prepared to close off the flood barrier downriver, slowing the current to just over a knot, smoothing the path for kayaks, gondolas and this dragon boat paddled by breast cancer survivors from NZ, Australia and beyond. I can almost see, but not quite. Crowds lined the embankment 20 deep in some places. Were there a million? Who could be sure? We've had a bracing wait in the breeze here on Lambeth Bridge, but for the waka paddlers and other rowers down there on the Thames, they've been hard at it for 45 minutes, keeping just ahead of the royal squadron that's just coming past now. Take a good look ` you haven't seen anything like this on the Thames for 300 years, and it's hard to imagine there will ever be a repeat. As for what Her Majesty made of it all, John Key will be among the first to learn. The Queen would like to see me on Wednesday, so we're going down to Buckingham Palace, and it'll be a great opportunity, obviously, to pass on the best wishes of the people of NZ. If the Queen abdicated tomorrow, her son would need to rule to a 123 to celebrate his diamond jubilee. And even if Charles were to yield immediately to his son, William would be nearly 90 at the same watershed. The monarchy's future is an open question, but this has been a day for the history books. Garth Bray, ONE News, London. A new wave of young country talent has stolen the show at this year's Gold Guitar Awards. The Gore event showcases NZ's best amateur talent. Max Bania was there. # So put your... # ...hand in the hand of a man... # For the Miti family, this is a country music dream come true. The best feeling in the world is to come off that stage knowing you've done your best. Aged 17, 19 and 21, they hail from Porirua, where music's helping keep youngsters out of trouble. I try to make sure they've got something to do, make them busy just to stay away from the streets. ALL SING What do your mates back home say about you being into country music? Do you ever get a hard time for it? Oh man, you shoulda seen when we first started. (LAUGHS) At first they used to mock us, but now` now they're cool about it. Yeah, you know, at first they're, like, 'What's this Islander doing singing country music?' This year's event drew a record 708 entries ` from gospel to movie themes, ALL STRUM GUITARS ...and, yes, yodelling. (YODELS) But this was a year for the youngsters, led by Dunedin teenager Kylie Price. My dad got diagnosed with cancer last August, and so I could never tell him what I wanted to, so decided I'd do it in a song. # ...just a man I know. # It was very very emotional. I was fighting to hold it back again. The Mitis also snapped up a pair of awards to savour on the long van trip home. Max Bania, ONE News. Just ahead, severe weather's on the way. I'll have the details. Also, a magic result in tonight's trans-Tasman netball from Hamilton. And the top sports figures featuring in the Queen's birthday honours. The Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic continue to build momentum in the trans-Tasman netball competition, thrashing the Southern Steel 66-47 in Hamilton tonight. The Magic got off to a slow start, but put together a strong second quarter to pull away from the Steel. Oh, beautiful shot. The win moves them to 10 points on the ladder, equal with the Central Pulse, who they meet next week. Many leading sport figures featured in the Queen's birthday honours today. Top of the list, as we mentioned earlier, the man known all his career simply as JK. Martin Tasker reports. Since the 1987 World Cup, John Kirwan's always looked like he belongs on the world stage. But his knighthood recognises not just his rugby career, but also his extraordinary and personal campaigning on mental health issues. It's an incredible honour, and I'm really humbled, and I don't really know what to think, to be honest. So, for the first time, I don't have a lot to say. Fellow rugby coaches Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith were also recognised with the CNZM, in particular for their work with the World Cup-winning All Blacks. I was happy to accept it on behalf of them and the other group of people that, without their support and love, which is my family, I wouldn't be able to do the job I do. A CNZM too for yachtstman Neville Crichton, who won 147 races back to back, including most of the offshore classics like the Fastnet and Sydney-Hobart. It's nice to be honoured for something you have had so much enjoyment out of and given a lot of people enjoyment, particularly for the yacht racing. Crichton also acknowledged for helping set up the NZ super yacht industry. Through his Fight For Life fundraisers, Dean Lonergan becomes a member of the NZ Order of Merit, the former rugby league international boosting a number of charities by more than $5m over 10 years. Just incredibly flattered and humbled that somebody would take the time out to nominate me. The NZ government turns round and endorse it, and it gets a tick from Lizzie. Yeah. Pretty rapt, to be honest. Netball's stalwarts also get recognition, with gongs for former Ferns star Temepara George (36) and veteran coach Robyn Broughton, whose weekend has been capped with her new Central Pulse team winning three matches in a row for the first time in their history. Martin Tasker, ONE News. A big boost for our men's hockey players ahead of the Olympics. The Black Sticks have won the Sultan Azlan Shah Cup in Malaysia for the first time in the competition's 21-year history. Andy Hayward's drag flick from the Kiwis' only penalty corner of the game, securing a 1-0 win over Argentina in the final. HORN BLARES Kyle Pontifex in the Black Sticks goal was named player of the match and goalkeeper of the tournament. The Olympic team will be named next week. Scott Dixon has recorded his 28th win in American Indycar motor racing; the feat made all the more difficult by a Detroit street circuit full of surprises. Here's Blair Norton. It was IndyCar's first time back at the motor city of Detroit since 2008. He's not out yet. Now he is. Yesterday's fastest qualifier, Scott Dixon, jumping out of pole position and into a commanding lead. The fifth race Scott Dixon has led this year. Dixon getting the balance between speed and fuel management spot on, building a 10-second lead over series leader Will Power. Then came a trip into the bizarre. Whoa, no. Trouble for James Hinchcliffe as he is into the tyres. The terrific downforce created by the cars literally sucking up recently patched pieces of track. Hinchcliffe was none too pleased. Dammit! The track just came up. They leave that big piece of track just sitting there, and look what happens! Dixon forced to sit in the pits for over two hours as the track was patched up. Oh, and boy, Dixon really snookered Will Power. Organisers deciding on a 15-lap sprint to complete the race, but there was more drama to come as the rain starting falling. And there goes Helio around! Dixon successfully negotiating three restarts and holding off his teammate Dario Franchitti for the final seven laps. Scott Dixon, for the 28th time in his career, is going to win here on Belle Isle in Detroit. Another 1, 2, uh, for the team ` two weeks in a row, which is fantastic. Big day for points, which helps us immensely for the chase on Will there. The flag-to-flag win propelling Dixon into second in the standings, 26 points behind Will Power. Blair Norton, ONE News. Now to the weather. The MetService has issued severe weather warnings for both islands. A deep low approaching tomorrow crosses the country overnight, bringing heavy rain to both islands with very cold air moving on to the south. In Auckland, rain with the chance of thunder in the evening and strengthening northerlies. Rain developing in the afternoon for Hamilton, and northerlies strengthening. In the capital, rain developing with a late severe northerly gale possible. Cloudy in Christchurch with some evening rain and a cold southerly change. And in Dunedin, rain by midday and some evening snow, with a bitter southerly change. Looking ahead to Wednesday. The North Island, rain. South Island, rain and snow clearing, becoming fine apart from showers near Foveaux Strait. And on Thursday ` rain over the North Island easing to occasional showers, becoming fine from Wanganui to Wellington, and mainly fine and frosty over the South Island, but showers about southern coasts. 18 PEOPLE ARE BEING RESCUED ON A YACHT NEAR NORFOLK ISLAND THAT'LL BE ON BREAKFAST TOMORROW MORNING We'll leave you with some more of this morning's very colourful, very British, and thoroughly sodden Jubilee regatta. Thanks for watching. Goodnight. Captions by Hugo Snell and Anne Langford. Captions were made possible with funding from NZ On Air. Copyright TVNZ Access Services 2012