GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M SUSAN WOOD. ON THE PROGRAMME THIS SUNDAY ` AN EXCLUSIVE Q+A COLMAR BRUNTON SNAP POLL ON THE EPSOM ELECTORATE AGAIN SHAPING UP TO BE A DECIDING FORCE IN THIS YEAR'S ELECTION. DO VOTERS WANT ACT? DO THEY LIKE NATIONAL'S DEAL? ALSO ON THE PROGRAMME... FOR THE FIRST TIME, ALL THE LEADING CANDIDATES LINE UP FOR A DEBATE. RACHEL SMALLEY FINDS OUT WHAT THEY'VE GOT TO OFFER EPSOM VOTERS. WE'RE ALSO IN CHRISTCHURCH, TAKING A LOOK AT A CRITICAL SEAT LOST BY LABOUR AT THE LAST ELECTION. WILL THE PEOPLE OF CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL VOTE IN NATIONAL AGAIN THIS TIME AROUND? HOW WILL THEY JUDGE THE GOVERNMENT'S REBUILD EFFORT? AND WE'LL ANALYSE ALL THE ISSUES WITH OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT MICHELLE BOAG AND LABOUR PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY TIM BARNETT. DUE TO THE LIVE NATURE OF Q+A, WE APOLOGISE FOR THE LACK OF CAPTIONS FOR SOME ITEMS. GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH US. RACHEL IS STANDING BY WITH THE CANDIDATES FOR THE EPSOM ELECTORATE, BUT FIRST, OUR COLMAR BRUNTON SNAP POLL, AND IT'S VERY INTERESTING. WE ASKED OUR ELIGIBLE EPSOM VOTERS ` WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR WITH YOUR ELECTORATE VOTE? 44% SAID NATIONAL'S PAUL GOLDSMITH; 32% SAID ACT'S DAVID SEYMOUR; 10% FOR LABOUR'S MICHAEL WOOD; 9% FOR JULIE ANNE GENTER OF THE GREENS; AND NEWLY ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE CHRISTINE RANKIN FROM THE CONSERVATIVES GOT 4%. SO WE THEN ASKED ` WERE YOU AWARE JOHN KEY IS ENCOURAGING NATIONAL PARTY SUPPORTERS TO GIVE THEIR ELECTORATE VOTE TO THE ACT PARTY CANDIDATE? 70% WERE AWARE OF THE DEAL; 28% WEREN'T. SO WE ASKED AGAIN ` WITH THIS IN MIND, WHO WOULD YOU NOW VOTE FOR WITH YOUR ELECTORATE VOTE? THIS TIME ` 31% SAID PAUL GOLDSMITH; 45% SAID ACT'S DAVID SEYMOUR; THE OTHER CANDIDATES BARELY MOVED. WE ASKED THE VOTERS ` DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE ARRANGEMENTS LIKE THE ONE JOHN KEY HAS MADE WITH THE ACT PARTY IN EPSOM? 47% WERE IN SUPPORT; 37% WERE NOT; 16% DIDN'T KNOW. AND WE DID ALSO ASK ABOUT PARTY VOTE ` WHICH POLITICAL PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? NATIONAL WAS BY FAR THE FAVOURITE ON 605. THE GREENS CAME SECOND ON 16%; LABOUR ON 14%; NZ FIRST ON 3.3; ACT ON 2.7; THE CONSERVATIVES JUST BEHIND ON 2.1%; INTERNET-MANA ON 1.5%; MAORI PARTY JUST REGISTERING ON 0.6 %. 501 ELIGIBLE EPSOM VOTERS WERE QUIZZED. THE POLL HAS A MARGIN OF ERROR OF PLUS OR MINUS 4.4%. WE'LL POST MORE DETAILS ON OUR WEBSITE. AS ALWAYS, WE'RE KEEN TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER @NZQandA. YOU CAN EMAIL US ` Q+A@TVNZ.CO.NZ OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. EACH TEXT COSTS 50 CENTS. LET'S GO TO RACHEL NOW. Welcome to our five leading candidates from Epsom. Julie Anne Genter from the Greens. How well do you know the electorate that you're in? I will take your answers. Who was Epsom's first MP? Will take that, Paul Goldsmith. How many people live in Epsom? 60,000. Paul Goldsmith, you will be the next MP for Epsom if you're not careful. I am after the party vote. Do you want to be the MP for Epsom? I want to be a list MP. It's a strange situation to be in, isn't it? We are after the party vote. It generally leads to coalitions. You generally have coalitions, which is why we are keen to have a stable government. What is the word on the street, Michael Wood? People have had enough of the games. They don't want the deal again. If you look at the poll, people are prepared to do what John key tells them to do. Only when we pointed out that John key wanted you to be electorate MP, then people said they would vote for David Seymour. John key needs to get to Epsom, doesn't he? Because people don't know about the deal. As candidate For Epsom, it includes support from John Key. If they wereN't instructed to vote for you, they would be voting for Paul Goldsmith. The important thing is I am offering to keep a centre-right government. If act gets in, do you want to be in government? The main thing is that we maintain stable centre-right government and keep Kim dotcom's Muppets out of government. It's my understanding act doen't want to be government. They want to be a support role. Julie Anne Genter, wouldn't the smart thing to be to encourage people to vote for Paul Goldsmith. The most democratic thing would be people voting for the candidate that best represents them. John key ask seem to vote for an unpopular party. They have been discredited and a number of Mps have been disgraced. The Greens always ask for the party vote. You're not encouraging anyone to vote for Paul Goldsmith. I have very clearly told people that if they want me in Parliament, they need to give me the party vote. Michael Wood, are you telling Labour supporters to vote for Paul Goldsmith? No, we're not directly. People are saying they understand the strategic issues, but they will give two ticks to Labour. Others consider a tactical vote. John key himself says he will not follow through on the deal. John key or vote for the national candidate. He has to, doesn't he? We would prefer people to vote for their preferred candidate. Christine, you don't have a chance of winning Epsom. Why are you standing? I don't think I don't have a chance. John key says the Conservatives are bridge too fa S Epsom does what he says. We got 800 new members in 10 days. It is buzzing. You watch this. It will change in the next few weeks. Are you trying to split the right vote? Why would you take on this amount of work to play A game? It's because you got rejected in East Coast Bays. This is the seat we can win. We have hundreds of people on the ground. I was out there last week and got a great reaction. I don't support many of Christine's policies, but at least she's giving people a choice. People have a choice. I am the candidate for the Epsom party. But do they? You just said you don't want to be MP for Epsom. My role is to maximise the party vote. If you like John key as Prime Minister, give us your party vote. David Seymour, this is it for act, isn't it? It is important to act. It is also important Epsom. People tell me they don't want political instability. They don't want taxes raised ` as the Conservative party would do. It is important to act, but it is also important to NZ in Epsom. You fail and act is done for. Welcome back. We had a crucial Epsom electorate candidates here. I would like to start this section By talking about local issues. Act wants to get rid of zoning. How do you reconcile that with a Epsom electorate? We don't want to move kids around ` we want to make all schools good. At the same time, we have to consider property rights. Essentially, this policy affects the well-heeled in it. School zoning is not a priority for the act party. Jamie and I have discussed this at length. The Ministry of education process of changing zones is abominable. So no changes to Epsom? No changes to zoning? Not at the moment. Act have written extensively about the fact that they want to abolish school zoning that's where the appearance because you don't get a guarantee of going to your local school. You're oversimplifying our policy. You can read it on interest.Co.NZ it is an unknown quantity what act will do in Parliament. He told the people of Epsom that he was concerned about public transport, but did nothing about it. I think the double grammar zone defines the Epsom electorate. People live there because they value the education. People are concerned about the issue. There is a premium that people pay to move into the zone. The issue arose because one tree Hill School and Selwyn College had been doing well. They didn't handle the process perfectly. What's the Conservative position on school zoning? We don't have a policy on changing. I'm surprised that this is the major issue that you came across. People are concerned about drugs and alcohol, brothels. School zoning is a big issue. That's settled. They are feeling confident about it. I haven't heard anyone talk about brothels in Epsom. In the south of the electorate, there is some concern about that. The number one issue in Epsom, people are terrified of the prospect that David Cunliffe and Annette Skyes coming in and running the government. The school zoning point is relevant. We have successful public schools in Epsom. We don't want to privatise The education system, which is acts policy. Act is extreme right wing. Julie Anne Genter, the Greens are doing pretty well. You're second behind national. Most people talk to me about transport. That is one of our big policy. The National party is denying them that, by holding up the city rail link. People deserve a train every 5 min. Another major issue in Epsom is Len Brown's plan to intensify the electorate. If you do the coalition, Ipsen is the densest electorate in the country. Michael Wood, Labour is talking tough on foreign investors. The biggest issue I get on Epsom this housing affordability. If you have an issue with affordability, a good Epsom. You don't go to Epsom. Labour will build 100,000 affordable homes. It won't be popular with Epsom ` telling people who they can sell their houses to. The current national government is doing nothing about this policies. David Seymour, I want to touch on Jenny Whyte speech on race. There has been a long struggle for ending slavery, equality for women... In every battle, people have said you don't understand the situation. We say everybody is better off in a society where everyone is equal. The Conservatives agree? Yes. Race-based laws cause more division. The treaty says we should have equal responsibilities and privileges. Julie Anne Genter, The fact that you have 16% of the party vote, indicates a liberal presence. What do they think of this policy? The law needs to ensure that people do have equal opportunity. Some people are very privileged and don't realise that. You can't take act seriously on this issue when they don't know what Whanau ora is. Can I respond to Julie and say that I went to a Decile one school so I know what she's talking about. Jamie went to Oxford University. Is he a philosopher? Maybe the issues that NZ faces fit into a broader history of Western society. If you want John key to remain in power, party vote national we are encouraging Epsom electorate to vote for David Seymour. That national party is popular in my electorate. Appreciate your time. It will be a busy six weeks for you all. THANKS, RACHEL. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE PANEL AFTER THE BREAK. AND LATER ` WE LOOK BACK TO WHAT WAS MAKING THE POLITICAL NEWS THIS WEEK IN 1998. I WEIGHTED THAT ISSUE UP VERY CAREFULLY AGAINST THE CONSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF HAVING A TREASURER BRINGING THE INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION OF NZ AS A COUNTRY TO DO BUSINESS WITH INTO DISREPUTE. LET'S GO TO OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER FROM AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT MICHELLE BOAG, AND LABOUR PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY, A FORMER LABOUR MP, TIM BARNETT. Starting with Raymond. What did you make of that? Very interesting. I thought it was quite an accomplished performance by all of them. And quite very well behaved. Absolutely. I think the people of Epsom would be pleased that they were dignified and constructive than any other debates. I think they all presented themselves very well. They presented their arguments well. Paul goldsmiths very clear steer was what I found interesting ` I want your party vote. The national party has been very clear that that's what they want you to do this year. It's how many of the Labour and green voters will vote for Paul Goldsmith, and that's a danger for national. I didn't find that clear. What is the policy? Is Labour advising people to vote for Paul Goldsmith? No. We never will do and we have never done so. People make up their own minds. And that's something that national has gotten themselves into. The facts are last time 11,000 people voted for labor, party vote. Only 6000 of them voted for the labor candidate. So 5000 of them to try to get rid of Act. They went to Paul Goldsmith. The thing with Epsom is there is story of three strikes and you're out. John key is going to be voting for Paul Goldsmith. I think national has gotten themselves into a tactical spot. It only works if Act is able to bring in other Mps. The seat was gifted to Act. Act is currently scoring below 1%. There is very good chance that they won't bring any other Mps. so if some voters may be asking why to revote for Act. Why would they want to support somebody who is not going to be a strong voice in government? They hadthe likes of Rodney Hide in the past. It doesn't matter if it's only one vote, last time that one vote was critical, and that made the difference. That one vote secured a strong John key-led government for New Zealand, and maybe well again. There is no way that Paul Goldsmith is standing there saying they encouraging their voters to vote for Act is any different from last time. Jamie Whyte said he's not going to take any ministerial position from the selection. He preferred to stand outside of government and be a critic as much as a supporter. Epsom voters are used to having a strong advocate in government. What we saw from David Seymour today is very unclear. There is absolute clarity over the fact that Act will support national in government. It is the same as Winston Peters. National need, even if it is that one vote, from Act to stay in government. What are the chances of national pushing Paul Goldsmith off? I wouldn't say it is strong, but I personally would. This whole thing comes down to mathematics. It is early in this six-week campaign to say how it is going to end for National. We haven't talked about yet Christine Rankin. She turned the debate around to issues that are important to her party, particularly law and order. They're relatively new, so they don't have that many issues, other than those that they borrowed from New Zealand first. Christine Rankin is going to have certain issues that she's trying to push. She is going to use her candidacy for Epsom to show a different side to the party from Colin Craig. I think she was talking it up as the greatest turnaround the country has seen. She may bring in extra complications. Are you seeing the momentum that Christine Rankin had talked about? The conservatives would not support labor, those really diehard conservative labor voters could well be attractive to a conservative message. This isn't a national in 2002. This is 2014. The interesting thing with Christine Rankin as an Epsom candidate what it does say is if the conservatives get to 3% to 4%, they can bring in by and large supporters for national. John key has already said he doesn't want to deal with the conservatives. How was introducing David Seymour into Epsom going? It's gone very well. Voters have been left impressed with David. David Seymour has been literally doorknocking since February. You can't replicate that coming in six weeks in from the election. You have to do the work from the ground, and people respect that work. And I think Dave Seymour showed that by showing issues that really concerned the people of Epsom. I think we have a very fascinating fight here with high-quality candidates. But I think nationals strategy has failed. WE Will find out a September 20. COMING UP ` AS CHRISTCHURCH SLOWLY STARTS ITS REBUILD, HOW WILL VOTERS IN ONE OF THE MOST AFFECTED ELECTORATES MAKE THEIR DECISION THIS SEPTEMBER? CAN LABOUR WIN BACK A FORMER SAFE SEAT? THAT'S NEXT. THE 2011 ELECTION THREW UP A NUMBER OF SURPRISES IN POST-EARTHQUAKE CHRISTCHURCH. THE CITY WAS STILL REELING FROM THE MASSIVE QUAKES AND THE DAILY ORDEAL OF AFTERSHOCKS. MANY PEOPLE HAD LEFT THEIR HOMES. THE CITY SWUNG TO THE RIGHT, WITH A NUMBER OF KEY SEATS GOING TO NATIONAL CANDIDATES. CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL WAS ONE THEM, WHERE NATIONAL MP NICKY WAGNER CAUSED A MASSIVE UPSET IN A TRADITIONALLY SAFE LABOUR SEAT. THIS TIME AROUND, THE REBUILD IS UNDERWAY, ALBEIT SLOWLY, BUT MANY FRUSTRATIONS REMAIN. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SEPTEMBER'S ELECTION? DITA DE BONI VISITED CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL TO FIND OUT: NATIONAL'S NICKY WAGNER IS HARD AT WORK TO HOLD ON TO THE CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL ELECTORATE. THE FORMER TEACHER AND BUSINESSWOMAN BECAME THE FIRST EVER NATIONAL MP FOR CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL WHEN SHE BEAT LABOUR'S BRENDAN BURNS BY 47 VOTES IN 2011. THE PARTY VOTE WENT TO NATIONAL TOO. A SURPRISE TO EVERYONE, EXCEPT NICKY WAGNER HERSELF. I'VE BEEN WORKING TO WIN THAT ELECTORATE FOR A VERY LONG TIME. THE FIRST TIME I STOOD, I LOST BY 13,000 VOTES. THE SECOND TIME I STOOD, I LOST BY 7,000 VOTES. THE THIRD TIME, I STOOD I LOST BY 800 VOTES AND THEN I WON BY 47. IT WASN'T A SURPRISE FOR ME. BUT THIS INNER CITY ELECTORATE WAS A LABOUR SAFE SEAT, TAKING IN THE TRADITIONAL BUSINESS DISTRICT, SOME WORKING CLASS INNER-CITY SUBURBS, PLUS SOME MORE AFFLUENT AREAS TO THE NORTH. WHEN CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL WENT TO THE POLLS IN 2011, IT WAS JUST MONTHS AFTER ONE OF THE MOST DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKES THE COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN. MANY PEOPLE WERE DISPLACED FROM THEIR HOMES AND THE TURNOUT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN. POPULATION LOSS MEANS BOUNDARIES HAVE CHANGED FROM A FAT, WIDE ELECTORATE TO A TALL, SKINNY ONE, TAKING IN LOWER SOCIO-ECONOMIC AREAS LIKE SYDENHAM AND BECKENHAM AND DROPPING SHIRLEY AND AVONSIDE. THE REBUILD IS FINALLY, SLOWLY UNDERWAY, BUT SOME BIG ISSUES REMAIN ` SCHOOL CLOSURES AND FINDING GOOD AFFORDABLE HOUSING. POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR BRONWYN HAYWARD SAYS FRUSTRATION REMAINS. WE'VE GOT A CENTRAL GOVERNMENT THAT IS COMING IN AND MAKING FAST AND RAPID AND CONTROLLING DECISIONS AND THEY ARE EXACEBATING COMMUNITY ANGER. YOU'VE GOT TO TAKE THE HAND OFF FROM CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND TRUST THAT THE COMMUNITY WILL COME WITH YOU. AND THAT'S A LESSON THIS GOVERNMENT, BUT ALSO THE LABOUR PARTY, HAVE TO LEARN. WE MET NICKY WAGNER VERY EARLY ON A CHILLY CHRISTCHURCH MORNING BECAUSE OF HER BUSY SCHEDULE. AS WELL AS BEING THE MP FOR CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL, SHE'S IS ALSO MINISTER OF CUSTOMS AND STATISTICS AND ASSOCIATE MINISTER OF THE CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY AND CONSERVATION. SHE'S ALSO A CHEERLEADER FOR NATIONAL'S REBUILD EFFORT. GENERALLY, I BELIEVE THAT MOST PEOPLE THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS MANAGED THE EARTHQUAKES PRETTY WELL, AND IN REAL TERMS, WE HAVE. OUR POPULATION IS COMING BACK. OUR WAGES ARE UP, OUR JOBS ARE UP, OUR UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN, MORE YOUNG PEOPLE INTO TRAINING, NEW SCHOOLS ARE OPENING. THERE'S LOT OF REAL POSITIVE THINGS HAPPENING, AND I THINK PEOPLE WEIGH THAT UP. I WAS WALKING DOWN HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND I CAN ACROSS TWO YOUNG MAORI GUYS WHO HAD NEVER HAD JOBS BEFORE AND THEY'RE WORKING ON THIS BUILDING SITE AND THEY'RE SO EXCITED THEY WERE THERE HALF AND HOUR BEFORE THE THING OPENED. I SAID, 'WHY ARE YOU SO EARLY?' 'OH, WE GOTTA GET HERE EARLY.' THESE OPPORTUNITIES ARE COMING THROUGH. HOW DO YOU RATE YOUR OPPONENT? LOOK, I THINK HE'S A VERY NICE YOUNG MAN. HI, I'M TONY MILNE. I'M THE LABOUR PARTY CANDIDATE IN THIS AREA. TONY MILNE IS THAT 'NICE YOUNG MAN'. THE LABOUR CANDIDATE, FORMER THE NATIONAL MANAGER OF HEALTH FOR THE PROBLEM GAMBLING FOUNDATION, SAYS VOTERS ARE GIVING HIM QUITE A DIFFERENT VIEW TO THAT OF HIS OPPONENT. I FIND THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF CHRISTCHURCH DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE. THEY DON'T KNOW THE SCALE OF THE HOUSING CRISIS IN THIS CITY. WHEN I'M DOOR-KNOCKING, EVERY THIRD TO FOURTH HOUSE, SOMEONE IS LIVING ON A COUCH, IN A CONVERTED GARAGE OR A CARAVAN. INITIALLY,PEOPLE GAVE OUR GOVERNMENT A LOT OF LEEWAY IN TERMS OF THINGS NOT HAPPENING. FOUR YEARS ON, WE HAVE 20,000 EQC INSURANCE CASES, WE'VE GOT 5000 TO 7000 PEOPLE HOMELESS. WE NEED 25,000 HOMES BUILT IN THE CITY. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST FAILURE IS AROUND HOUSING. WE HAVE PEOPLE IN DESPERATE SITUATIONS IN THE CITY ` RENTS THAT HAVE SKYROCKETED, FORCING PEOPLE INTO POVERTY AND HARDSHIP, SO, SO MANY PEOPLE HOMELESS, AND THE GOVERNMENT COULD HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE THERE. WE ARE STUCK WITH A HOUSE THAT IS UNLIVABLE AND A SITUATION THAT IS UNBEARABLE. JO BRYNE WILL NEED CONVINCING THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S DOING A GOOD JOB. SHE HEADS UP THE RESIDENT GROUP FOR A PEOPLE LIVING IN THE FLOCKTON BASIN, A GROUP OF SUBURBS THAT HAVE SUFFERED FREQUENT FLOODING SINCE THE EARTHQUAKES. RESIDENTS WANT TO BE PAID OUT FOR THEIR DAMAGED LAND. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE REALLY BITTER AND ANGRY. THEY FEEL THEY ARE FIGHTING ON THEIR OWN AGAINST INSURANCE COMPANIES. A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THIS AREA ARE PRETTY MUCH MIDDLE NZ. THEY ARE FULLY INSURED, BUT, YOU KNOW, FOUR YEARS LATER, PEOPLE ARE STILL LIVING IN BADLY DAMAGED HOMES, WITH NO IDEA OF WHEN THEY ARE GOING TO GET REPAIRED. THEY FEEL LIKE THEY ARE GETTING SUBSTANDARD REPAIRS. THEY DON'T TRUST REPAIR STRATEGIES. THEY DON'T TRUST GOVERNMENT ORGANISATIONS, WHICH IS REALLY SAD. AND THAT DESPONDENCY IS EASY TO FIND ON THE STREETS OF THE CENTRAL CITY. THERE ARE ALWAYS SO MANY PEOPLE INTERFERING. THERE ARE THINGS TO DO, BUT IT'S THREE-ODD YEARS AGO. IT'S HAPPENING QUITE SLOWLY GERRY BROWNLEE SEEMS TO BE A PERSON WITH AN ABRASIVE PERSONALITY WHO IS NOT QUIET SUITED TO THE JOB HE IS IN. ARE YOU UP AGAINST NICKY WAGNER OR UP AGAINST GERRY BROWNLEE OR UP AGAINST JOHN KEY HERE? I THINK, TO SOME EXTENT, WE'RE UP AGAINST APATHY. THERES'S A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT, AT THE MOMENT, AREN'T MOTIVATED TO GET OUT AND VOTE. NATIONAL'S REBUILD EFFORT DOES HAVE THE SUPPORT OF MANY IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY. IT'S WORKED CLOSELY WITH THE GOVERNMENT ON THE RECOVERY AND BLUEPRINT ` PLANS BASED HEAVILY ON BUSINESS INVESTMENT. I THINK YOU WILL FIND PEOPLE ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CHRISTCHURCH. CERTAINLY, FROM THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY'S PERSPECTIVE, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, BUSINESS ACTIVITY IS GOOD, PEOPLE HAVE ADOPTED NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS IN CHRISTCHURCH, FORMING NEW COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIPS, LEARNING HOW TO BUILD SCALE, LEARNING HOW TO COPE WITH THE CHALLENGES WE HAVE AHEAD OF US. AND, BY THE WAY, BUSINESS ATTRITION IN CHRISTCHURCH HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN THE POST-EARTHQUAKE ENVIRONMENT. PETER TOWNSEND SAYS NICKY WAGNER HAS DONE A GREAT JOB FOR CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL, BUT BELIEVES SHE'LL STRUGGLE TO HOLD ON TO THE SEAT THIS TIME AROUND BECAUSE OF THE BOUNDARY CHANGES. BUT DR BRONWYN HAYWARD BELIEVES NICKY WAGNER'S SUCCESS WASN'T JUST BECAUSE OF EARTHQUAKE DISRUPTION. WHAT NICKY WAGNER WAS DOING IN CHRISTCHURCH WAS JUST GROWING AND GROWING THE PARTY VOTE FOR NATIONAL ` BUILDING BUILDING PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS AS WELL AS HER ELECTORATE VOTE, SO IT BECAME A VERY TIGHT RACE, SO I THINK IT UNFAIR OF HER OPPONENTS TO JUST SAY LABOUR VOTERS SOMEHOW EITHER LEFT OR MOVED. NICKY HAS WORKED HARD AS A LOCAL ELECTORATE MP. THREE YEARS ON, DR BRONWYN HAYWARD SAYS THE ELECTORATE IS STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX, AND IT MIGHT TAKE TWO OR THREE ELECTORAL CYCLES FOR VOTING PATTERNS TO BECOME CLEARER. THIS WINTER HAS BEEN IT. PEOPLE ARE TIRED AND FED UP, SO I THINK THAT THIS ELECTION IS NOT GOING TO BE TYPICAL OF THE LONG-TERM, AND I THINK THAT THE NEXT ELECTION WILL BE EASIER TO CALL. THE ELECTORATE SEAT WILL GO TO LABOUR. I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED IF THE SEAT GOES TO NATIONAL. THE REAL COMPETITION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THAT PARTY VOTE. WILL WAGNER GROW THAT VOTE? OR WILL TONY MILNE AND HIS CAMPAIGN TEAM BE ABLE TO START PULING BACK THE LOCAL LABOUR VOTE FOR LABOUR? THAT'S THE REAL COMPETITION. AFTER THE BREAK, WE RETURN TO THE PANEL AND LOOK BACK TO WHAT WAS MAKING POLITICAL NEWS THIS WEEK IN 1998. WHICH MP GOT SACKED FROM PRIME MINISTER SHIPLEY'S GOVERNMENT? WELCOME BACK. We Were the panel. The question at the end, will Nicky Wagner make it back and grow the national vote. I think labor will win the vote this time. There are certain communities out that I would consider the city central, but the issue for an electoral vote is the quality of representation. I think Tony has the skills as an advocate and public health professional to do a great job. But I also agree with what was said in the piece that it is about the party vote. I think there's a rebound happening. The party vote of course is so important. We don't know really, yet, the extent of the earthquake to impact on the vote across Christchurch. We are yet to see that. We can tell by boundary changes with respect to the Christchurch Central electorate. But the impact of their work is yet to be felt on the National scene. What is your polling show? We're seeing a rebound. What is underreported is that we inherited a 30% part of vote in Christchurch in 2011. And then our candidate got 60% of the vote. That was An extraordinary swing. We really advocated for the people of Christchurch and brought up strong issues like the housing issue. What happened in Christchurch in terms of the party vote was a huge surprise for everyone. Although Nicky Wagner has been a strong strong advocate for Christchurch for a long time. So she has done a great job. Very hard for Her to keep the seat, however. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound towards labor in the party vote. But I think the people of Christchurch will had to be wary of one thing ` a change of government will give them a better deal, but the spending promises of labor and the green are going to be so huge I'll be very wary of just assuming that people a Christchurch are going to get money funneled into that area. There's going be a lot of competition for those spending promises. For many, it would be a vote out of anger and frustration. People will blame the government for a lot of that. It is understandable. I want to get on to campaign launched today. The bus rolls out, so to speak. Tell us what you can. We're expecting 8000 people out in Viaduct. The health promises out today. They'll be part of our spending promises. Our campaign theme will be about work and families. The big campaign thing will be the very tangible commitment to health. Another big issue ` the Lochinver sale. Will this change to game? I don't practically think so. The extent to which this will be explored Remains to be seen. A lot of people are genuinely concerned, but I don't think it's necessarily anti-Chinese concern. This comes on the back of the asset sales. I think labor things they can exploit this kind of opportunistic sales. What I detected amongst the media was a big sigh of relief that they have an issue where the government is vulnerable. They were talking about it as a game changer. The last election was fought on asset sales. That was much more and deeply unpopular. But New Zealand still voted for a stable center-right government. I think the political context of that issue is between the greens, NZ first and and labor is the political overlap. For a lot of people, that'll be a very scary prospect. Thank you all for your time. BEFORE WE GO, LET'S LOOK BACK AT WHAT WAS MAKING POLITICAL NEWS THIS WEEK IN 1998. AFTER MONTHS OF TURMOIL, PRIME MINISTER JENNY SHIPLEY SACKED HER DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND TREASURER, WINSTON PETERS. HERE'S HOW IT UNFOLDED. MRS SHIPLEY'S TRUMP CARD. IT IS WITH REGRET AND SOME SADNESS THAT I HAVE TO ANNOUNCE THIS AFTERNOON THAT I HAVE ASKED THE GOVERNOR-GENERAL TO DISMISS THE RIGHT HONOURABLE WINSTON PETERS AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND AS TREASURER. MR PETERS HEARD ABOUT HIS DISMISSAL NOT FROM HER BUT AT A BUSINESS LUNCH. IF THAT'S THE CASE... I MEAN, I JUST LEARNT FROM MY HOST. A RATHER UNUSUAL EMISSARY, IF I MIGHT SAY SO. (CHUCKLES) DID YOU TELL HIM? OH, ALL RIGHT. OK, WELL, THIS IS NOT THE BUSINESS WE'RE HERE FOR. I HAVE MADE EVERY ATTEMPT, I CAN ASSURE YOU, TO MAKE CONTACT WITH MR PETERS IN THE LAST HOUR. WHEN JIM BOLGER SIGNED THE COALITION AGREEMENT, HE GUARANTEED HIS JUNIOR PARTNER BOTH THE DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND THE TREASURER'S JOBS. TODAY, NZ FIRST LOST BOTH. I WEIGHTED THAT ISSUE UP VERY CAREFULLY AGAINST THE CONSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF HAVING A TREASURER BRINGING THE INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION OF NZ AS A COUNTRY TO DO BUSINESS WITH INTO DISREPUTE. I BELIEVE THAT MY CONSTITUTIONAL RESPONSIBILITY TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THAT ISSUE FAR OVERRODE ANY POLITICAL UNDERTAKING THAT HAD BEEN ENTERED INTO. THEY TURNED ON MMP AND THEIR COALITION PARTNER. MRS SHIPLEY HAS WRITTEN TO THE OTHER NZ FIRST MINISTERS, ASKING FOR INDICATIONS OF SUPPORT. THESE ARE NOT PEOPLE WHO CAN BE BOUGHT OFF. THEIR PRINCIPLES ARE NOT FOR SALE FOR 30 PIECES OF SILVER. MARAE IS NEXT WITH AN INTERVIEW WITH NAPIER MAN, ZION KING, WHO'S STILL TRYING TO CLEAR HIS NAME AFTER BEING FALSELY ACCUSED OF MURDER SIX AND A HALF YEARS AGO. AND Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AFTER 'THE SECRET STATE' ON TV ONE. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY MORNING AT 9. CAPTIONS BY ANNA BRACEWELL-WORRALL AND AMY PARK CAPTIONS WERE MADE POSSIBLE WITH FUNDING FROM NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2014