GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M SIMON DALLOW WITH MICHAEL PARKIN. TODAY - THE FIRST TV DEBATE BETWEEN THE TWO LEAD CONTENDERS FOR THE NORTHLAND BY-ELECTION. YES, IT TOOK SOME ORGANISING, BUT NZ FIRST LEADER WINSTON PETERS AND NATIONAL'S MARK OSBORNE ARE FRONTING UP FOR A DEBATE AND I'LL BE ASKING THEM ABOUT THE BIG ISSUES FACING THE NORTH. WE ALSO HAVE AN EXTENDED INTERVIEW WITH DEFENCE MINISTER GERRY BROWNLEE. WHAT WILL OUR TROOPS FACE IN IRAQ? Terrorist organizations will sprout out all over the world. AND PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN ` BACK AFTER HIS MYSTERIOUS DISAPPEARANCE. WHAT WILL HE DO TO HOLD ON TO POWER? I SPOKE TO NEW YORK TIMES WRITER AND AUTHOR MASHA GESSEN. AND WE'LL ANALYSE ALL THE ISSUES WITH OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR DAMIEN ROGERS, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT MICHELLE BOAG AND FORMER LABOUR PARTY CANDIDATE JAMES DANN. DUE TO THE LIVE NATURE OF Q+A, WE APOLOGISE FOR THE LACK OF CAPTIONS FOR SOME ITEMS. AS Q+A'S COLMAR-BRUNTON POLL MADE CLEAR TWO WEEKS AGO, IT'S A TWO-HORSE RACE BETWEEN THESE TWO MEN ` NZ FIRST'S WINSTON PETERS, WHO JOINS ME IN THE STUDIO, AND NATIONAL PARTY CANDIDATE, MARK OSBORNE, WHO HAS OPTED TO STAY IN THE SUNNY NORTH. HE'S IN MANGAWHAI. Why had you stayed up there today? It's a beautiful part of the Northland. Are you scared to take on the man you're taking head-to-head? Not one bit. We are talking to the electorate. In terms of its actual contest itself, why is it a 2 horse race in what should've been a safe national seat? Why aren't you streaks ahead in what should be your seat? By-elections are always challenging and we are not taking anything for granted. Those are wonderfully rehearsed lines. But I'm asking why aren't you comfortably ahead? You would have to ask the voters that. We are focusing on this campaign. It is tough and tight and we're not taking anything for granted. All the campaign has not gone wrong for me. Being a local here, I get to run around the communities. I will get to talk to people about the things important to them. If I had the privilege of being elected, they would have a government they can actually make a change. If you win this election, will Northland be your primary residence? Yes. Otherwise I will be in Wellington. I want to make sure the political establishment with this country does not forget these people. You want national voters to switch allegiance and get behind you. Why? The reality is we start from way behind. Why should Northlanders for the trust in me? Well, I have a track record for making things happen. This place has been neglected for a long time, and I have been touched by the number of people in this spectrum. They want to change. If you want a export plus provinces the top half to get a fair go, you need someone who understands how the second-tier economy goes. In short, if the dollar was far better set to be sympathetic to exporters, farming would've gone much better and farmers would not be so concerned about the banks. You mentioned you track record there. If you win this seat, you will cause chaos. What are your priorities? Do you want to see the RMA scrapped? So in the dirt, makes all sorts of false allegations. Take the RMA. National have never spoken to me and all my party about it. It's like the TPPA. They want us to sign a blank document. Mister Osborne, I know you've been primed to think you're going to interrupt here. But I will hear you out. But 1st hear me out. Up north, every industry that should be up is down. Everything is upside down there.. I am committed to turn everything right side up. Have you seen the RMA reforms. He's not gonna do that. He doesn't care. He only cares about himself. I care about Northlanders. I have worked here for the last 8 years. So I care and I understand and I know about Northland. He doesn't. He's been everywhere but here. I grew up north. He flew up north. He's only been there 15 years. About these routing investments, will they go ahead even if you don't win? Absolutely, they will. They are part of the infrastructure appear. Is it going to go ahead regardless if you winning this contest, why were the people not take the goodies and the bridges and vote for Winston peters? Winston's bee an MP for decades. And he has done nothing. My advice to Mister Osborne is for a start, don't buy cardboard shoes. He can't even name the bridges that he claims... I'm not prepared to go into the names of the bridges. There are 778 one lane bridges and Northland. That is what neglect reads. In Auckland the budget for her transport is $200 per person per year. We'll talk about more later. WE'RE BACK WITH OUR NORTHLAND DEBATE. Let's go through some local issues that have been sent to us. WHAT WILL YOU DO TO HELP FAMILIES LIVING IN POVERTY? ` DIANNE KHAN. Will make sure they have a job with 1st world wages. That's a problem up north. The 2nd lowest income in the country. The lowest proportion of salary and wage earners in the country. How about you Mark Osborne? Nationals had a lot of time to work. The most important way out of poverty his job and job investments. There were 7 � thousand new jobs last year. CAN WHANGAREI HELP AUCKLAND BY BECOMING A SUBURB? ` ELISABETH BATT WILL YOU PROMOTE FAST TRAINS? That's my policy. And are you prepared to back that one? The reality is that people traveling from Northland use these roads and that is where we will invest. Stop right there. There is no plan or engineering reporter anything from Warkworth to Wellsford. Your feedback has been very very hot on Sorting dusty roads. You're putting in all the objections before I even get there. They're going to have the cell towers all over the North and fast broadband in 10 days. All, Winston. Come on. 1 MP turned up not once but 3 times ` me. I travel 1000 km a week around there. I know these issues. What are you going to do about them? For 40 years you did nothing. Amalgamation of the councils. Do you support it? Why? That's a choice for the people of Northland. They need to make that choice. Whatever the outcome be, what we want is for the government agencies to work closer together. The local government Commissioner is running it down their throats. I support the local people having a capital and local government and the decided by referendum not have it rammed down their throats. Mangawhai, Mangawhai, should taxpayers be picking up the bill? Were going to make sure it doesn't happen again or anywhere else. I support accountability. I support accountability. Why don't their party ratify the bill that said he you people who are innocent in every respect are now going to pay? Are you happy to see the ratepayers pick up that debt? What I am saying is accountability. If audit NZ are accountable, they should be held accountable. Don't slide past this. What will you do to create jobs and Northland? I grew up there where employment was full. Whether it be in farming or horticulture, they are going to get the benefits of it. Unemployment dropped from 9.5 to 8%. Any and employment is not good. The reality 7 � thousand new jobs were created last year and that's a start. That is false. That is not false, Winston. Both talk at once we are focusing on a range of opportunities across all of Northland so that they all get opportunities. Mark Osborne, the Northland ITM who knocked them off? TIME TO BRING IN OUR PANEL, DR DAMIEN ROGERS, A POLITICAL SCIENTIST FROM MASSEY UNIVERSITY, ALBANY. FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT MICHELLE BOAG AND FORMER LABOUR PARTY CANDIDATE, FROM CHRISTCHURCH, JAMES DANN. Damien, the performance overall drink the debate of the 2 candidates. I think it's pretty obvious to one that debate. I didn't see a decline off powers of Winston peters given his advancing years. Michelle, credit to Mark for turning up, but he didn't actually turn up. Unfortunately, although you say Damien might be neutral, he does have a history of activism. Mark wants to make the best of every single day campaigning. Mark Osborne is doing a really good job in very difficult circumstances. I thought he held up his site quite well. What amazed me was the promise is coming out of Winston. He talked about a set dollar, tax concessions for employers and fast train to the North. These are all promises being made. There it is not practical politics. There is no substance for the people the ante has been raised on the spending with the porkbarrel. The suggestion that Steven Joyce was in the room. I love how his eyes would shift to the side. He said any employment is not good ? I think he said unemployment. But not in the studio though. That is just a one hour away. That is a tactical decision. Let's be clear, while you are a very important program, he don't actually have 30% rating. But you have the opportunity to go head-to-head and he doesn't take it. But the question is why isn't Winston up there? Clearly Mark has the capability to come here and go toe to toe. It's already been a win for Winston peters and loss for John key. They have now started pork barreling with these routes. He has fronted up for the interview despite the terms being different. I think resorting to physical abusive descriptions is not a good way to tackle this. He has been media trained by you, Michelle. Are you telling me you would send a candidate into a by election without media training? That would be incompetent. No, I'm not involved. I'm everywhere as a volunteer. But you would accuse them of incompetence if they did not trained every candidate. Of course they are media trained. Every leaders media trained. How effective has it been to wrap Mark Osborne close to the Prime Minister all the time. I think the Northland people would've loved it and loved all the attention. You obviously need to bring out the big guns. Isn't it interesting how they parade all these high-level Mps. But it takes away from Mark. While agree that Mark might win on the day, this is not a win for national party. National campaign one of the parties worst; Winston near faultless. What strikes me is the pork barreling and I saw that today. What does that mean for democracy? Isn't this a sign of things to come? Is this the way national party think they can govern NZ, by giving away bribes. There are throwing huge amounts of money. Rio Tinto, sky city convention centre. When it comes to a small by election, they'll throw in 70 million bridges. This is about creating jobs, and this is what the government has done successfully. That is their job. That is a what it's meant to do. In Northland there a lot of people who don't want to exploit mineral resources. The people they need to accept that they want to look at these resources to make jobs. It's a win-win for the Northlanders, isn't it? This is why the resources are going. They are trying to keep the majority of the house. Winston is saying it's not necessarily a bad choice to vote for him. He is doing a great PR job for Winston. As for Winston saying he didn't know what the resource management act was all about, I think Winston should read. Michelle, don't flimflam the panel of views. No ministers ever come up to me and said I would like to speak to you about it. You show me the diary notes. You should not come along here without one diary to back up what you're trying to argue. I'm talking about legislative agenda, and you're saying you know nothing about the reforms. I am far more experienced about this than you are. We are now having a he said she says moment. We've got to leave it there. SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER ` @NZQANDA. YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A@TVNZ.CO.NZ. OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF ` EACH TEXT COSTS 50C. AFTER THE BREAK ` GERRY BROWNLEE ON WHAT OUR TROOPS WILL FACE IN IRAQ. AND HIS VIEW ON CHRISTCHURCH ASSET SALES. IS THE COUNCIL GOING FAR ENOUGH? DEFENCE MINISTER GERRY BROWNLEE HAS CONFIRMED THAT NZ TROOPS ARE NOW ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ AND THAT THE REST WILL BE LEAVING NEXT MONTH. I CAUGHT UP WITH MR BROWNLEE IN CHRISTCHURCH FOR AN INTERVIEW IN AMONGST THE INNER CITY REBUILD. WE TALKED ABOUT THE IRAQ MISSION, THE RISK TO SOLDIERS AND THE KIND OF PROTECTION THEY COULD EXPECT. BUT I STARTED THE INTERVIEW BY ASKING ABOUT SOME CHRISTCHURCH ISSUES. FIRST, HIS REVIEW OF THE OUR NATURAL DISASTER FUND, THE EQC. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES. I THINK IT WAS PRETTY OBVIOUS IN THE EARLY DAYS THAT EQC COVERING CONTENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS NOT A PARTICULARLY USEFUL THING FOR ANYBODY, SO THAT'S LIKELY TO GO. AND WHAT IMPACT DOES THAT HAVE ON PEOPLE'S INSURANCE PREMIUMS? OBVIOUSLY, THE PRIVATE INSURER THEN PICKS UP THAT ASPECT OF IT. YEAH, AND I THINK MOST PEOPLE WILL RESPOND TO THE INFORMATION COMING FROM THEIR PRIVATE INSURERS AROUND THAT. SO AT THE MOMENT THE FIRST $20,000 OF YOUR CONTENTS ARE COVERED THROUGH EQC, AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE UNTIL THERE IS A CHANGE, BUT IT'S A LIKELY CHANGE. AND WILL PEOPLE'S PREMIUMS CHANGE AS A RESULT? YOU KNOW, IS THE BACK POCKET GOING TO BE BETTER OFF OR WORSE OFF UNDER ANY OF THESE CHANGES? WELL, INSURANCE PREMIUMS CHANGE ALL THE TIME, BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S BEEN REALLY USEFUL IN ALL OF THIS HAS BEEN THE WAY IN WHICH EQC HAVE MANAGED THE CLAIM PROCESS, THAT'S MEANT THAT THEIR REINSURERS, THE PEOPLE WHO PUT CAPITAL UP TO BACK UP A BIG SCHEME LIKE THIS, HAVE STAYED ON BOARD, AND THAT PRICE HAS MEANT THAT IN THIS YEAR WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO BUY MORE COVER FOR THE SAME MONEY THAN WE HAD THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SO IT'S A DYNAMIC SITUATION. WE PUT THE PRICE UP A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO, AND PERIODICALLY THAT PRICE OBVIOUSLY WOULD RISE AS THE VALUE OF THE LIABILITY GOES WITH IT, BUT I WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY GREAT PRICE SHOCKS FROM ANY CHANGE WE MIGHT MAKE. IF WE CAN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THOSE QUAKE OUTCASTS. WE OBVIOUSLY HAD THAT SUPREME COURT JUDGEMENT LAST WEEK WHICH FOUND THE PROCESS BY WHICH YOU REACHED THAT 50% OFFER WAS UNLAWFUL. CAN THOSE PEOPLE EXPECT A GREATER PAYOUT THAN 50% NOW? I'M NOT MAKING A COMMENT ABOUT THAT, BECAUSE THE COURT HAS TOLD US TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT IT THROUGH A LENS THAT IS VISIBLE IN 2015. I'M NOT SURE WHERE THAT'S GOING TO END UP. HAVEN'T THESE PEOPLE ALREADY WAITED LONG ENOUGH FOR AN ANSWER? THAT WAS ONE OF THE CRITICISMS IN THE JUDGEMENT ABOUT THE IMPACT IT'S HAD ON THEIR LIVES. WHY CAN'T THEY JUST GET A NUMBER AND MOVE ON WITH THEIR LIFE? WELL, THAT WOULD ASK THE QUESTION, 'WHY DO YOU HAVE INSURANCE? 'WHY DON'T WE JUST LEAVE IT ALL TO THE GOVERNMENT ALL THE TIME?' AND WE DON'T. THESE PEOPLE COULDN'T GET INSURANCE IN SOME CASES. WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, IN MANY CASES, THEY COULD HAVE HAD SOME, BECAUSE THEY HAD BUILDINGS ON THEIR PROPERTIES. IN NZ, NO ONE IS ABLE TO INSURE LAND ANYWHERE, AND WE LOSE SECTIONS OF LAND THROUGH ACCRETION, THROUGH RIVER CHANGES, THROUGH FLOOD ACTIVITY REGULARLY IN NZ. SO YOU'RE PRETTY KEEN TO STICK TO THAT 50% OFFER, THEN? NO. I'M KEEN THAT WE FOLLOW THE DIRECTION THAT WAS SET DOWN INITIALLY BY THE COURT OF APPEAL AND UPHELD BY THE SUPREME COURT. BECAUSE IT WAS ONLY $21 MILLION TO PAY OUT THAT 50%. WELL, I'LL PUT IT TO YOU ANOTHER WAY, AND I DON'T WANT THIS TO BE SEEN IN ANY WAY AS A PREJUDICIAL POSITION THAT I'M TAKING. BUT IF YOU HAD BEEN GIVEN AN 100% OFFER SO CALLED BY THE GOVERNMENT BUT YOU'D HAD TO ASSIGN HALF OF YOUR INSURANCE LAND VALUE TO THE GOVERNMENT, AND THEN YOU FOUND OUT THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS GIVING SOMEONE ELSE 100% OF THEIR LAND VALUE WITH NO ASSIGNMENT, HOW WOULD YOU FEEL? AND THERE ARE THOUSANDS OUT THERE WHO MIGHT RIGHTLY SAY, 'WELL, ACTUALLY, IF YOU'RE GIVING THEM A LARGE SUM OF MONEY 'WITHOUT COVER, THEN WHY AREN'T WE GETTING IT?' LET ME FINISH THAT BY SAYING IT IS COMPLEX. WE'RE TREATING THE SUPREME COURT DECISION VERY SERIOUSLY AND WILL MOST CERTAINLY FOLLOW THE PROCESS THE COURT HAS REQUIRED US TO DO. SO, IF WE CAN MOVE ON TO ASSET SALES ` ANOTHER THING THAT IS REALLY RILING PEOPLE UP DOWN HERE. THE COUNCIL IS NOW LOOKING AT SELLING OFF $750 MILLION WORTH OF ASSETS TO AVOID SOME PRETTY MASSIVE RATES RISES. BUT YOU DON'T THINK THAT GOES FAR ENOUGH? WELL, LOOK, I THINK THE CONCEPT OF PUTTING RATES UP IN THIS CITY IS JUST NOT REALISTIC. HOW FAR BEYOND $750 MILLION DO YOU`? I DON'T THINK YOU CAN PUT A PARTICULAR PRICE ON IT. WHAT I THINK THEY NEED TO DO, AND I'M SURE THAT THE COUNCIL WILL GET THERE. I WAS GOING TO SAY THE COUNCIL HAVE BEEN EDGING THEIR WAY TO A POSITION THAT I THINK WILL LEAVE THEM IN A GOOD SPACE PROGRESSIVELY. WHAT REALLY IS NECESSARY IS A SALES PROCESS THAT GETS YOU THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE PRICE. IF YOU GO OUT AND SAY, 'LOOK, I'M JUST GOING TO SELL A LITTLE BIT OF THIS 'AND A LITTLE BIT OF THAT,' THEN YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET ANY PREMIUM ON IT AT ALL. AND IF YOU'RE GOING TO SELL SOMETHING, YOU MAY AS WELL GET AS MUCH FOR IT AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN. THAT'S MY REAL POINT. DOES THE COUNCIL NEED TO BE A MAJORITY SHAREHOLDER IN THE LIKES OF THE AIRPORT, THE PORT AND ORION? I DON'T THINK SO, PARTICULARLY IF YOU LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE THE AIRPORT. IT'S ESSENTIALLY A REAL ESTATE COMPANY THAT JUST PROVIDES PARKING FOR PLANES. YOU COULD BREAK IT DOWN TO BEING THAT SIMPLE. IT'S STILL GOING TO GET USED. IT'S STILL GOING TO PROVIDE THE SERVICE THE CITY REQUIRES WHOEVER OWNS IT. IT IS PARTLY PRICE CONTROLLED THROUGH THE COMMERCE ACT, AS IS ORION. COMPLETELY PRICE CONTROLLED. SO THE IDEA THAT SOMEONE ELSE WOULD BUY IT AND THE PRICING OF YOUR ELECTRICITY LINES ARE GOING TO BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL IS COMPLETELY WRONG. IF WE CAN TURN TO YOUR OTHER PORTFOLIO, THAT BEING DEFENCE, I UNDERSTAND THE RECONNAISSANCE TEAM FROM THE NZDF IS NOW IN IRAQ, SO WE ARE OFFICIALLY, FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, AT WAR WITH ISIS? NO. WE ARE THERE TO ASSIST THE IRAQI SECURITY FORCES IN THEIR TRAINING OF THEIR SOLDIERS, AND THEY ARE MOST CERTAINLY LOCKED IN A BATTLE WITH ISIS. BUT WE SHOULDN'T ASSUME THAT NZERS AREN'T AFFECTED BY THIS PARTICULAR TERRORIST GROUPING. THEY HAVE VERY BROAD TENTACLES, DEEP CONNECTIONS AND EXTRAORDINARY REACH TO PEOPLE WHO ARE DISAFFECTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA SUCH THAT WE'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THEY ARE ALSO FINANCIALLY RESOURCED IN WAYS THAT OTHER TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS HAVEN'T BEEN, AND THEY HAVE A MESSAGE THAT IS VERY MUCH OPPOSED TO THE WAY OF LIFE THAT WE ENJOY HERE IN NZ. BUT THOSE TROOPS THAT WILL HEAD UP THERE IN APRIL, THEY WON'T HAVE THE PROTECTION OF A 'STATUS OF FORCES' AGREEMENT? IS THAT STILL THE CASE? IT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT 'STATUS OF FORCES' AGREEMENTS HAVEN'T BEEN IN PLACE FOR A NUMBER OF OTHER DEPLOYMENTS UNDERTAKEN BY PREVIOUS GOVERNMENTS. THEY WERE IN PLACE IN AFGHANISTAN. NO, THEY WEREN'T. THERE WAS NO 'STATUS OF FORCES' AGREEMENT THERE? NO, THERE WASN'T. TIMOR-LESTE? I'M NOT SURE ABOUT TIMOR-LESTE, BUT` SOLOMON ISLANDS? ON THOSE SORTS OF DEPLOYMENTS, IT'S NOT LIKELY THERE WERE 'STATUS OF FORCES' AGREEMENTS. THE REAL POINT, THOUGH, IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT IS DOCUMENTATION THAT MEANS THAT SOLDIERS UNDERTAKING THE ACTIVITIES AS MILITARY PEOPLE ARE EXEMPTED OR REMOVED FROM THE CIVIL AND MILITARY COURT PROCESSES INSIDE THAT COUNTRY AND HAVE FREE PASSAGE OF MOVEMENT AND ABLE TO CARRY WEAPONS AND DISCHARGE THEM IN APPROPRIATE CIRCUMSTANCES. AND SO NZ TROOPS WILL BE AFFORDED THOSE PROTECTIONS SHOULD THEY HAVE TO TURN THEIR WEAPON ON SOMEONE, ON A CIVILIAN IN IRAQ FOR WHATEVER REASON THAT THEY WON'T BE PROSECUTED IN IRAQI COURTS? YOU'RE CONFIDENT OF THAT? THAT'S THE SORT OF AGREEMENT WE WANT. NOW, WE DON'T INTEND THAT OUR SOLDIERS WOULD BE GOING OUT SHOOTING CIVILIANS` NO, BUT YOU` BUT IF THEY ARE FIRED UPON, THEN IT WOULD BE UNCONSCIONABLE TO HAVE THEM IN A POSITION WHERE THEY COULDN'T FIRE BACK. SO IT'S THE AGREEMENT YOU WANT, BUT IT'S NOT THE AGREEMENT YOU HAVE, AND YET THESE GUYS ARE OFF IN APRIL. NO, THESE GUYS ARE THERE UNDER` THEY'RE DOING A DIPLOMATIC MISSION, THE FELLOWS WHO ARE THERE AT THE MOMENT. BUT THE ONES THAT ARE GOING IN APRIL. BY THE TIME APRIL ROLLS AROUND, THESE TROOPS LEAVE, YOU WILL HAVE AN AGREEMENT ALONG THOSE LINES? ABSOLUTELY. THEY WON'T BE GOING IF WE DON'T HAVE IT. AND HOW CAN YOU BE SO SURE OF THAT WHEN YOU HAVEN'T GOT IT SO FAR? BECAUSE THEY HAVEN'T GONE YET, AND SO WE WON'T SAY, 'GET ON THE PLANE AND GO,' IF WE HAVEN'T GOT IT. IN TERMS OF THE SOLDIERS THEMSELVES, HOW DO THEY FEEL ABOUT THE FACT THERE ISN'T WIDESPREAD POLITICAL SUPPORT AND EVEN PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THIS MISSION? WELL, LOOK, PEOPLE WHO JOIN THE NZ DEFENCE FORCE ARE PEOPLE WHO HAVE MY TOTAL ADMIRATION BECAUSE THEY CHOOSE TO PUT ON A UNIFORM KNOWING THAT THEY MAY BE CALLED ON IN DEFENCE OF THEIR COUNTRY OR TO CARRY OUT A MISSION LIKE THIS, ONE WHICH IS IN SUPPORT OF THE WAY OF LIFE THAT WE ENJOY IN THIS COUNTRY. AND THEY ARE VERY KEEN TO DEPLOY. YES, IT MUST BE HARD ON THEIR FAMILIES, BUT THAT'S THE CHOICE THAT YOU MAKE, I GUESS, WHEN YOU SIGN ON TO BE PART OF THE DEFENCE FORCE. IT'S WHY I THINK THEIR COMMITMENT IS SO ADMIRABLE. HAVE ANY PULLED OUT? NOT TO MY KNOWLEDGE. YOU MENTION THE SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGY THAT ISIS HAVE AND THE FAR REACH THAT THEY HAVE. IS THERE A FEAR FOR THE FAMILIES OF THE SOLDIERS THAT ARE GOING BACK, HERE IN NZ, THAT THERE WILL BE ANY REPERCUSSIONS THEY COULD FACE FROM GROUPS, GIVEN THEY HAVE THIS WIDER OUTREACH? WELL, WE'RE GOING TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY HAVE ALL THE NECESSARY PROTECTIONS. PART OF IT WILL BE ENSURING THAT IDENTITIES ARE NOT EASILY GATHERED BY THESE SORTS OF ORGANISATIONS. HOW DO YOU GO ABOUT DOING THAT? IF I WAS TO DO THAT, I WOULD BE TELLING A VERY SOPHISTICATED ORGANISATION WHAT THEY NEED TO DO TO UNPICK WHAT WE'RE DOING. THAT'S QUITE A SEA CHANGE, ISN'T IT, BECAUSE QUITE OFTEN WE'VE BEEN INVITED OUT TO SEE TROOPS DEPLOYING OVERSEAS. IS THAT GOING TO BE THE CASE THIS TIME? WE WILL STILL WANT TO RECOGNISE THAT CERTAINLY AT A GOVERNMENT LEVEL IN SOME WAY. IT WILL JUST BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT THIS TIME. DO YOU BELIEVE THERE IS A CREDIBLE THREAT TO THE FAMILIES OF THOSE SOLDIERS THAT ARE GOING TO SERVE IN IRAQ? I DON'T THINK IT IS A THREAT THAT WE SHOULD BE WORRYING ABOUT ON A DAILY BASIS, BUT IT IS SUFFICIENT FOR US TO WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THE IDENTITIES ARE PROTECTED, ETC. AND THAT'S OF ALL THE TROOPS THAT ARE GOING OVER THERE, AS OPPOSED TO A SELECT HANDFUL? THAT'S RIGHT. THIS MISSION, OVERALL, WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE TO YOU? IN THE END, YOU HAVE TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT THAT ACCEPTS THE RULE OF LAW AND IS ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN ANY PARTICULAR COUNTRY, AND YOU WANT A HIGH DEGREE OF DEMOCRACY AROUND THAT AS WELL. SO, FOR US, IT'S THE CURRENT IRAQI GOVERNMENT BECOMING MORE SUCCESSFUL. IT'S IRAQI SECURITY FORCES MAKING THE SORT OF PROGRESS THAT YOU'RE SEEING AT THE MOMENT IN THE NORTHERN PART AROUND TIKRIT AND THE DIMINISHED STATUS OF THE TERRORIST ORGANISATION. TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS WILL SPROUT UP ALL OVER THE PLACE, BUT THIS ONE NEEDS TO BE SERIOUSLY NIPPED IN THE BUD. BUT WE'VE GOT A FINITE TIME ON WHAT THAT COMMITMENT IS, AND AT THE END OF IT, WE WOULD EXPECT THAT WE WOULD BE ABLE TO SAY WE'VE MADE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROFESSIONALISM OF THE IRAQI SECURITY FORCES AND WE HAVE MET THE REQUEST THAT THE IRAQIS HAVE MADE OF US. THAT PROFESSIONALISM OF THE IRAQI FORCES ` THERE ARE REPORTS FROM THE ABC IN THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK THAT SOME OF THOSE US-TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES, IRAQI SPECIAL FORCES GROUPS, HAVE BEEN CARRYING OUT CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY AND WAR CRIMES THAT ARE BACKED UP BY SOME PRETTY GRAPHIC IMAGERY. ARE YOU CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS A FORCE THAT WE WANT TO GET INVOLVED IN THE TRAINING OF? WELL, THERE ARE MANY TYPES OF ACTIVITIES AROUND THE FIGHT AGAINST THE DAESH ` ISIL ` AND SOME OF THEM ARE MORE IN THE LINES OF VIGILANTE-TYPE FORCES THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY UNDER THE CONTROL AND SOME OF THEM ARE MORE IN THE LINES OF VIGILANTE-TYPE FORCES THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE IRAQI SECURITY FORCES. BUT THESE ARE BADGED SPECIAL FORCE IRAQI SOLDIERS. WELL, THAT'S NOT MY UNDERSTANDING, AND I THINK THE REAL POINT IS THAT IS WHY I THINK WE CAN MAKE A CONTRIBUTION IN A PLACE LIKE THAT, BECAUSE OUR MILITARY PEOPLE HAVE VERY HIGH STANDARDS ABOUT THE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT. AND THE AMERICANS DIDN'T? WELL, YOU'RE PUTTING SOMETHING TO ME THAT I'M NOT AWARE OF OR HAVE KNOWLEDGE OF. I THINK WHEN YOU'VE GOT VARIOUS MILITIA THAT PARADE THEMSELVES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE DAESH, IT'S NOT ALWAYS EASY TO WORK OUT EXACTLY WHAT THE COMMAND STRUCTURE IS BEHIND THEM. WE'RE WORKING WITH THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND THE FORMAL IRAQI SECURITY FORCES. GERRY BROWNLEE, THAT IS WHERE WE WILL LEAVE IT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME. THANK YOU. LOTS TO DISCUSS WITH OUR PANEL. THEY'RE BACK AFTER THE BREAK. AND LATER WE SPEAK TO AN EXPERT ON RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN. DID THE KREMLIN PLAY A ROLE IN THE DEATH OF RUSSIA'S OPPOSITION LEADER? AND HOW WILL PUTIN HOLD ON TO POWER? THAT'S COMING UP. LET'S BRING IN OUR PANEL AGAIN, AND MICHAEL JOINS US TOO. I'll start with Damien as the academic. I think this is a reflection of the government wanting to limit the participation of New Zealanders let the market decide. You have written on this. They are selling off assets. There is the collective prerogative. They have to do what is the best for Christchurch.He wants more asset sales. The government has put in 750 million. We want to build a stadium for $500 million. The convention centre for $284 million. These don't return the same dividends. Is about the social livability of Christchurch? If you want social livability you don't put a stadium that is three blocks in the middle of town that is deep space for most of the year. That is not urban design. The government spent hundreds of millions of dollars buying back up and leaving it as green space. It's not just about investment. It is about what a convention centre does for the city in terms of bringing people in and the economic benefit. It is what the stadium does in the terms of economic benefit. It's one game. In all blacks came once a year. I was toldNational was going to get smashed and Christchurch. The people in Christchurch are pretty happy with the job the government are doing. I think national getting 52% is a reflection of the property market. There are not that many houses in Christchurch. Prices have just gone up. Good rationalisation, that the fact is that` let's look at the defence side of the interview. There are two sides to every interpretation. Does it matter? Status of forces agreement are different all over the world. Gerry Brownlee described it as documentation accepting soldiers from the courts. The content is the same. It is to say that military personnel why be subject to the criminal jurisdiction and Iran. It was a really good question by Michael in the interview. Do we want to be aligning ourselves with this they like Iran whose forces have been committing extrajudicial killings and using torture? We should be very very concerned about these activities. Does this reflect the Iraqi government's ambivalence about us being there? Change in the Iraqi parliament could undermine any lease agreement that we have. Why are we actually there? It is not about combating these cruel people in Isis. It is about American oil in Iran. Oh come on. For heavens sake. It is about cruel and barbaric acts. New Zealand shouldn't just stand back and say we will let other people deal with it. It may be rhetoric but at the end of the day we have people saying we should not do anything this includes the Labour Party. It is now fight. Isis could be a fight at any time. Look at the people in Tunisia in the museum. There could have been New Zealanders. The government has to do something. As the saying Iraqis and Dublin, why did the leadership come all the way out here for meetings without government to urge us to support them if they are in public? Brownlee said our troops won't go without that sort of protection. John Key is off to Japan and Korea. Tomorrow expect a pretty significant announcement from the Salvation Army about social housing. THANKS TO OUR PANEL. WE'LL HAVE SOME OF YOUR FEEDBACK AFTER THE BREAK. PLUS, THE MURDER OF RUSSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BORIS NEMSTOV. THE MESSAGE THAT PEOPLE GOT WITH THE MURDER OF NEMTSOV IS THAT EVERYBODY IS RISKING THEIR LIVES JUST FOR SPEAKING OUT AGAINST THE KREMLIN. WHEN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN DISAPPEARED FROM PUBLIC VIEW WHEN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN DISAPPEARED FROM PUBLIC VIEW LAST WEEK, THE RUMOUR MILL WENT WILD. SOME COMMENTATORS SPECULATED HE WAS ATTENDING HIS CHILD'S BIRTH IN SWITZERLAND, OTHERS WONDERED IF THERE'D BEEN A COUP. ACCORDING TO LONG-TIME PUTIN WATCHER MASHA GESSEN, THE INFORMATION VACUUM DEFINITELY PROVED ONE THING ` JUST HOW MUCH PUTIN DOMINATES RUSSIAN LIFE AND POLITICS. WE FIRST SPOKE TO THE NEW YORK TIMES WRITER AND AUTHOR WHEN SHE WROTE HER BIOGRAPHY OF PUTIN TWO YEARS AGO. WE WENT BACK TO HER TO TALK ABOUT THE MYSTERIOUS MURDER OF RUSSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BORIS NEMSTOV. I BEGAN BY ASKING HER ABOUT REPORTS THAT THE MEN IN CUSTODY WERE BEATEN AND PRESSURED TO CONFESS. CONFESSIONS IN RUSSIA ARE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT FORCED. IN FACT, ONCE WE SEE SOMEBODY IN CUSTODY IN RUSSIA, THIS IS SORT OF WHERE ALL CREDIBILITY HAS TO STOP, BECAUSE PRISON CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA ARE OFTEN, IF NOT ALWAYS, EQUIVALENT TO TORTURE; CONFESSIONS ARE OFTEN, IF NOT ALWAYS, FORCED; AND THE COURTS SERVE AT THE PLEASURE OF THE PRESIDENT, AND THE ACQUITTAL RATE AT THIS POINT IS LESS THAN ONE HALF OF 1%. SO ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE KNOW IS ONCE LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS PINPOINTED SOMEBODY AS A SUSPECT FOR WHATEVER REASON, THAT PERSON IS DONE FOR, CONFESSION OR NO CONFESSION. SO THAT'S ONE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE CONFESSION MAY HAVE BEEN FORCED. THE OTHER REASON TO DISBELIEVE THE CONFESSION IS JUST THE SHEER ABSURDITY OF IT. I MEAN, THIS MAN CLAIMS TO HAVE KILLED HIMSELF BECAUSE OF HIS POSITION ON CHARLIE HEBDO, THE PARIS TERRORIST ATTACKS, AND HIS SUPPOSEDLY ANTI-ISLAMIC STANCE. NOW, TRY AS I MIGHT, I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANYTHING THAT CAN BE REMOTELY INTERPRETED AS ANTI-ISLAMIC, ANTI-MUSLIM IN ANYTHING THAT HE HIMSELF HAS SAID. IN FACT, IT'S QUITE THE OPPOSITE. TO WHAT EXTENT, THEN, CAN WE ASSUME THAT THE KREMLIN OR VLADIMIR PUTIN HIMSELF IS INVOLVED? WHAT WE DO KNOW IS VERY TELLING. ONE IS THAT HE HIMSELF WAS KILLED ON THE BRIDGE THAT IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE KREMLIN. I AM QUITE FAMILIAR WITH THAT SPOT. IF YOU TAKE OUT A ZOOM CAMERA ON THAT BRIDGE, PRESIDENTIAL GUARD IS RIGHT ON TOP OF YOU IMMEDIATELY. ONE TIME ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF AGO, I WAS IN A GROUP OF BICYCLISTS WHO WENT UNDER THAT BRIDGE. IT WAS A LARGE GROUP OF BICYCLES ` FAIRLY UNUSUAL FOR MOSCOW ` AND ABOUT 15 PRESIDENTIAL GUARD RAN OUT OF THE KREMLIN AND TOWARD US TO SEE WHAT THIS IRREGULAR OCCURRENCE WAS. RIGHT, SO THIS IS A SPOT THAT IS UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE. IT IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE KREMLIN. SO WHAT WE UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS IS THAT WHEN THE MURDER HAPPENED NEMTSOV WAS IN PLAIN VIEW OF TWO RUSSIAN SECRET SERVICES ` THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD, WHICH IS STATIONED IN THE KREMLIN AND WHICH CONDUCTS SURVEILLANCE OF THAT BRIDGE; AND FSB, THE SUCCESSOR AGENCY TO THE KGB, WHICH HAD NEMTSOV UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE. AND NEITHER OF THOSE AGENCIES INTERVENED. NOW, DOES IT MATTER WHETHER THEY CHOSE NOT TO INTERVENE OR THEY ACTUALLY CHOSE TO CARRY OUT THE MURDER? I DON'T THINK IT MATTERS. IT WAS DONE IN PLAIN VIEW OF THEM. YOU'RE DRAWING SOME PRETTY CLEAR INFERENCES THERE. YOU'VE WRITTEN THAT MR NEMTSOV'S MURDER 'MARKS THE BEGINNING OF YET ANOTHER 'NEW AND FRIGHTENING PERIOD IN RUSSIAN HISTORY'. WHAT EXACTLY DO YOU MEAN THERE? WHAT I MEAN IS THAT I THINK THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO WAYS THAT THE KREMLIN HAS DEMONSTRATED OF DEALING WITH OUR POSITION. ONE IS THE KREMLIN'S OWN WAY, WHICH IS` WHICH IS QUASI-CIVILISED COMPARED TO JUST TAKING SOMEBODY OUT IN, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS EQUIVALENT TO BROAD DAYLIGHT. AND THE OTHER IS THIS, WHAT HAPPENED TO NEMTSOV, WHICH I THINK IS CONNECTED DIRECTLY TO THE KREMLIN FIELDING THIS ARMY OF NOT EXACTLY CONTROLLABLE AVENGERS. IT'S BASICALLY PEOPLE WHO ARE BEING TOLD THAT IT'S OPEN SEASON ON WHAT PUTIN HAS CALLED THE FIFTH COLUMN, WHAT HE HAS CALLED THE NATIONAL TRAITORS, THE ENEMY WITHIN ` PEOPLE WHO OPPOSE HIS POLICIES. AND THERE'S GREAT EFFORT BEING MADE BOTH BY TELEVISION PROPAGANDA AND, YOU KNOW, BY DIRECT MONETARY INFUSIONS TO ENCOURAGE VIOLENCE AGAINST THESE PEOPLE. AND I THINK WHAT WE SEE WITH NEMTSOV IS EXACTLY THAT BEING CARRIED OUT, SORT OF A NON-DIRECT MESSAGE FROM THE KREMLIN, BUT NONETHELESS ONE THAT IS OF CLEAR ENCOURAGEMENT FOR VIOLENT INTERVENTION IN THE OPPOSITION. THE MESSAGE THAT PEOPLE GOT WITH THE MURDER OF NEMTSOV IS THAT EVERYBODY IS RISKING THEIR LIVES JUST FOR SPEAKING OUT AGAINST THE KREMLIN, AND WE'RE NEARING A POINT WHERE IT MAY ONLY BE POSSIBLE FOR PEOPLE IN OPPOSITION TO BE ACTIVE AND EFFECTIVE IF THEY LEAVE THE COUNTRY. GIVEN HIS PATTERN OF BEHAVIOUR OR THE PATTERN OF BEHAVIOUR THERE, HOW MUCH OF A THREAT IS PUTIN TO THE WESTERN WORLD? OH, I THINK IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT PUTIN IS TO THE WESTERN WORLD. WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THIS STOP. IT'S NOT GOING TO STOP WITH CRIMEA. YOU KNOW, THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A PEACEFUL SOLUTION. AND I'M NOT EVEN SURE THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS GOING TO SURVIVE THIS. WHAT DRIVES VLADIMIR PUTIN IN ALL OF THIS? WHAT DOES HE ACTUALLY WANT? POWER. HE WANTS TO HOLD ON TO POWER. AND IS HE PREPARED TO BEND THE CONSTITUTION AGAIN, SWAPPING ROLES ` PRIME MINISTERSHIP, PRESIDENCY? WHAT CAN HE DO NOW? HE IS WILLING TO DO ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING, AND THAT INCLUDES NUCLEAR WEAPONS. WHAT'S HE PREPARED TO DO IN THE UKRAINE? YOU KNOW, UKRAINE IS NOT ABOUT UKRAINE. IT'S NOT THAT PUTIN WANTS TO TAKE OVER UKRAINE OR HAVE UKRAINE OR NOT HAVE UKRAINE. PUTIN PERCEIVES HIMSELF AS BEING AT WAR WITH THE WEST. IN FACT, HE PERCEIVES RUSSIA AS FIGHTING A CIVILISATIONAL WAR, A WAR ON THE BEHALF OF A TRADITIONAL VALUE CIVILISAITON AGAINST THE WESTERN CIVILISATION WITH ITS VALUES OF UNIVERSAL HUMAN RIGHTS. SO UKRAINE IS A PROXY WAR AS FAR AS PUTIN IS CONCERNED, AND SO, YOU KNOW, FOR THAT REASON, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY WHAT HE WANTS TO DO IN UKRAINE. WHAT HE WANTS TO DO IN UKRAINE IS ESCALATE, SO THE SIMPLE PREDICTION TO MAKE IS THINGS ARE GOING TO GET WORSE. TWO YEARS AGO ON THIS PROGRAMME, YOU SAID THAT PUTIN WAS IN THE LAST STAGES OF HIS REGIME. HASN'T HE ACTUALLY TIGHTENED HIS GRIP ON POWER IN THE MEANTIME? I STILL THINK HE'S IN THE LAST STAGES OF HIS REGIME. WHAT I MEAN BY FINAL STAGES IS THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A CHANGE OF STRATEGY. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE ANOTHER SORT OF KREMLIN EPOCH. THIS IS THE END GAME, AND THIS IS AN END GAME THAT'S BASED ON A POLITICAL CRACKDOWN, AND IT'S BASED ON ESCALATION. AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE IT ESCALATING RIGHT UP UNTIL THE POINT WHEN IT IMPLODES. WE KNEW THAT THAT USUALLY HAPPENS BECAUSE THE DICTATOR MAKES A MISTAKE. YOU KNOW, HE MISCALCULATES, HE RAISES THE STAKES TOO MUCH OR HE LOWERS THE STAKES OR SOMETHING HAPPENS THAT MAKES IT ALL FALL APART. THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE SOVIET UNION. THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED WITH MILOSEVIC'S YUGOSLAVIA MORE RECENTLY. BUT IT'S AN UNPREDICTABLE EVENTUALITY PRECISELY BECAUSE IT'S A CLOSED SYSTEM. HOW SHOULD THE WEST RESPOND TO HIM? WELL, I THINK THAT THE WEST NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND THAT THERE'S NO STRATEGY THAT WILL WORK AGAINST PUTIN. THERE'S A FALLACY AT THE BASIS OF THE CONVERSATION THAT WE'VE BEEN HAVING FOR THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF ABOUT PUTIN, AND THE FALLACY IS THAT THERE'S SOMETHING THAT CAN BE DONE THAT WILL MAKE HIM PULL BACK, DE-ESCALATE, YOU KNOW, ACCEPT AN EXIT STRATEGY. THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THERE'S NO STRATEGY IN THE WORLD THAT WILL GET HIM TO STOP, BECAUSE HE DOESN'T WANT TO STOP AND IT CANNOT BE BENEFICIAL FOR HIM TO STOP. SO UNDERSTANDING THAT, THE WEST NEEDS TO TAKE AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT APPROACH, WHICH IS NOT A REALPOLITIK APPROACH; IT'S NOT A STRATEGIC APPROACH. IT'S A MORAL APPROACH. IT'S A QUESTION OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT DOES THE WEST WANT TO BE IN RELATIONSHIP TO A THREAT LIKE THIS? WHAT DOES THE WEST WANT TO BE WHEN SOMEONE DECLARES WAR ON WESTERN CIVILISATION ITSELF, AND WHAT DOES THE WEST WANT TO BE ONCE PUTIN IS OUT OF POWER, WHICH EVENTUALLY IS GOING TO HAPPEN AND THE WORLD IS GOING TO HAVE TO REORDER ITSELF ONCE PUTIN IS OUT OF POWER. WILL HE LEAVE POWER HIMSELF, OR WILL HE BE ULTIMATELY OVERTHROWN? HE WILL NOT GO VOLUNTARILY. Gerry Brownlee phoned in and said there are no troops currently in Iran. There are just over four representatives on a diplomatic mission. MARAE IS NEXT, AND THIS IS GOOD ` THEY'VE BEEN INVITED TO SHANE JONES' HOUSE FOR A BARBECUE WITH A NUMBER OF PROMINENT NGA PUHI POLITICIANS, INCLUDING WINSTON PETERS. REMEMBER Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.35 PM. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS, AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A.