GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO THE NATION. I'M LISA OWEN. AND I'M PATRICK GOWER. THIS MORNING, THE STATE OF THE NATION'S POLITICS ONE YEAR ON FROM THE ELECTION. HOW ARE THE PLAYERS AND THEIR PROMISES HOLDING UP? I CAN TELL YOU THAT THERE'LL BE NO SLACKENING IN THE PACE OF THE VERY BUSY YEARS AHEAD OF US. AS A NEW LEADER OF THE START OF THE PARLIAMENTARY CYCLE, I'M FULLY AWARE OF THE TASK I HAVE AHEAD. A YEAR AGO, IT WAS A FULL BLUE TIDE, BUT IS IT EBBING OR ARE THE OTHER PARTIES STUCK IN NATIONAL'S WAKE? WE'LL DISCUSS HOW THE GOVERNMENT HAS PERFORMED, THE BIG POWER PLAYS AND THE ISSUES THAT HAVE MOVED THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. TODAY WE TALK TO THE MAIN PLAYERS ` NATIONAL'S STEVEN JOYCE, LABOUR'S ANDREW LITTLE, THE GREENS' JAMES SHAW, NZ FIRST'S WINSTON PETERS AND ACT'S DAVID SEYMOUR IN THIS SPECIAL EPISODE. PLUS, POLITICS IN 60 SECONDS AND A POWER PANEL ` GUYON ESPINER AND TRACY WATKINS. Captions were made possible with funding from NZ On Air. Copyright Able 2015 THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY. TO GIVE US YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE YEAR SINCE THE ELECTION, WELL, TEXT 3330 FOR 50C, EMAIL THENATION@TV3.CO.NZ OR WE ARE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK @THENATIONTV3 AND WE'VE GOT A LARGER-THAN-USUAL TWITTER PANEL THIS MORNING WITH ECONOMIST SHAMUBEEL EAQUB AND BLOGGERS JORDAN MCLUSKEY AND LAMIA IMAN AT #NATIONTV3 NOW, A YEAR AGO, YOU WOKE UP TO THIS. JOHN KEY HAS WON AN EMPHATIC MANDATE, AND FOR EVERY OTHER PARTY, IT'S A TIME OF REFLECTION, REBUILDING, OR EVEN AU REVOIR. NATIONAL, THAT PHENOMENAL RESULT, AND LABOUR, THAT PHENOMENAL LOSS. WE DO THINK THE COUNTRY'S HEADING THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WELL, I DON'T AGREE WITH THE PHRASING 'ANNIHILATED.' VOTERS WERE SAYING MOST OF ALL THAT THEY WANTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE EXISTING GOVERNMENT. WELL, I'M NOT LOOKING BACKWARDS; I'M LOOKING FORWARDS. WE'LL BE BACK, AND IN A FEW MONTHS, PEOPLE WILL SEE WITH GREAT CLARITY WHAT WE MEANT WHEN WE SAID THAT THIS COUNTRY IS NOT A ROCK-STAR ECONOMY. WELL, YES, THEY DID, BUT HAS THE MOOD CHANGED? WE'LL TALK TO THE FOUR BIG PARTIES SHORTLY, BUT FIRST, TORBEN AKEL AND EDITOR STU MACKAY TAKE A TRIP THROUGH THE PAST 12 MONTHS IN POLITICS. CHEERING ONCE THE CONFETTI HAD SETTLED AND ALL THE DEALS WERE DONE,... GIDDAY. ...THE FIRST BIG ISSUES ON THE AGENDA WERE WHAT TO DO IN IRAQ... THE TRAINING IS DEFINITELY AN OPTION. ...AND HOW MANY STATE HOUSES TO SELL. IT COULD BE THOUSANDS. JOHN KEY THEN SPENT MUCH OF NOVEMBER RUBBING SHOULDERS WITH THE STARS, WHILE LABOUR'S CAUCUS LINED UP TO LEAD, ANDREW LITTLE WINNING WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM HIS FRIENDS. YOU WERE PUT THERE BY THE UNIONS. NO, I WON THE VOTE. AND HE SOON LET RIP OVER DIRTY POLITICS. THE DIRTIEST, FILTHIEST, GRUBBIEST, VILEST OPERATION WE HAVE EVER SEEN IN NZ POLITICS TODAY! PARLIAMENT RESUMED WITH DIFFERENT TAKES ON THE STATE OF THE NATION. THE ECONOMY'S GOING BLOODY WELL, MATE. THE LEVEL OF INEQUALITY IS NOW HOLDING BACK ECONOMIC GROWTH. THEN TWO RESIGNATIONS TWO DAYS LATER. ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. MY OFFICE WAS ADVISED MR SABIN WOULD RESIGN. WOULD YOU ENDORSE HIS CHARACTER? THANKS VERY MUCH. BUT IF THAT WAS UNCOMFORTABLE FOR KEY, WORSE WAS TO COME. FIRST, NATIONAL'S DIY DISASTER IN NORTHLAND. FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY KEY'S BAD-HAIR MONTH. WHAT ARE YOU DOING? SOON AFTER, WE LEARNED OUR TROOPS WERE BACK IN IRAQ AND FIRST HEARD ABOUT A SHEEP FARM IN THE ARABIAN DESERT. THE BUDGET BROKE PROMISES ` NEW TAXES AND NO SURPLUS, BUT ALSO BROKE ASSUMPTIONS. BENEFIT RATES WILL RISE BY $25 A WEEK. IN MAY TOO, JOHN BANKS CLEARED HIS NAME, WHILE HIS SUCCESSOR REBUFFED A CHALLENGE. IT MAKES A FOOL OF MAURICE WILLIAMSON ` WAS THAT YOUR INTENTION? NO, NOT AT ALL. THE GREENS CHOSE A ROOKIE TO BE CO-LEADER. THEN THE CONSERVATIVES HAD A MELTDOWN. I HAVE NEVER SEXUALLY HARASSED ANYONE. MORE RECENTLY, LABOUR'S BEEN RINGING ALARM BELLS OVER FOREIGN HOUSE SALES. THERE IS A TSUNAMI OF CHINESE INVESTMENT. AND PRIVATE PRISONS. THERE'S BEEN A TSUNAMI OF INFORMATION COME THROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE GOVERNMENT'S BEEN TALKING UP ANYTHING BUT AUCKLAND PROPERTY OR DAIRY. KIWIFRUIT, ICT, MEAT AND WOOL PRICES HAVE HELD UP PRETTY WELL. IT SEEMS WORM FARMING'S DOING WELL THESE DAYS TOO, BUT IF YOU CAN'T GET A POSITIVE HEADLINE OUT OF THAT, THERE'S ALWAYS THE RUGBY OR THE NEW FLAG ` IDEALLY BOTH AT ONCE. THE SILVER FERN MEANS A LOT. SOMETHING LIKE THAT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT. A WIN AT TWICKENHAM WOULDN'T HURT EITHER AS AN ANTIDOTE TO THIRD-TERM-ITIS, BUT WHILE THE AB'S HAVE A MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB IN EUROPE, KEY HAS THIS PEAK TO KNOCK OFF HERE. SO, WHILE NATIONAL'S WELL AHEAD IN THE POLLS, IT'S NOT BEEN A YEAR WITHOUT ITS CHALLENGES. NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN CHIEF AND, OF COURSE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER STEVEN JOYCE JOINS ME NOW. GOOD MORNING. EVERY YEAR HAS ITS CHALLENGES, LISA. ALL RIGHT. WELL, BRIEFLY, TO START OFF WITH, WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE NATIONAL'S PROUDEST ACHIEVEMENTS, AND WHAT'S THE BIGGEST HIT YOU'VE TAKEN THIS YEAR? OH, WE'VE HAD SOME GOOD ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE ECONOMY, PARTICULARLY KOREAN FDA, WHICH WILL GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE HOUSE. IT WAS MENTIONED IN THAT CLIP, THE BENEFIT CHANGES ` THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT. WE'VE GOT THE UNDER-13S ` THE FREE HEALTHCARE FOR UNDER-13S. THERE'S ACTUALLY, YOU KNOW, A WHOLE RANGE OF ADVANCES ON ALL FRONTS. < AND THE BIGGEST HIT? OH, PROBABLY TWO THINGS, I WOULD SAY, WHICH ARE SORT OF RELATED ` THE NORTHLAND BY-ELECTION WAS, FROM A POLITICAL POINT OF VIEW, DISAPPOINTING. WE HAD TO LEARN SOME THINGS OUT OF THAT, AND I THINK WE HAVE. AND THEN THE SECOND THING IS ` AND IT'S SEMI-RELATED TO THAT ` WE STILL HAVE YET TO BE ABLE TO BUILD A CONSENSUS IN THE HOUSE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RMA REFORM, WHICH MOST NZERS IN REGIONAL AREAS WANT, BUT SO FAR, THE POLITICIANS HAVEN'T ACTUALLY BEEN ABLE TO GET THEMSELVES TOGETHER TO VOTE FOR IT. AND, I MEAN, THAT'S POLITICIANS OF ALL SIDES OF THE HOUSE. OK. WELL, YOU MENTIONED NORTHLAND THERE. WHAT WAS THE BIG LESSON THAT YOU LEARNED? WELL, THERE'S A NUMBER OF THINGS. ONE WOULD BE, DON'T HAVE AN MP DISAPPEAR ON YOU IN AN UNEXPLAINED FASHION SO SOON AFTER A GENERAL ELECTION. AND THAT SOUNDS A LITTLE BIT TRITE, BUT ACTUALLY, THAT WAS VERY DIFFICULT. AND AS A RESULT, THERE WAS LOTS OF PEOPLE IN NORTHLAND CONFUSED AS TO WHY THEY SHOULD VOTE FOR SOMEBODY NEW THAT CAME UP. BUT WASN'T THE BIG LESSON, THOUGH, THAT THE REGIONS FELT THAT THEY WEREN'T GETTING ANY LOVE FROM THE GOVERNMENT? WASN'T THAT THE LESSON? NO, I THINK THAT THAT WAS PART OF THE LESSON IN NORTHLAND, THAT'S LABOUR'S NARRATIVE, AND, OF COURSE, WINSTON PETERS IS TRYING TO RUN THAT LINE AS WELL, BUT ACTUALLY, YOU GO ROUND OTHER REGIONS IN THE COUNTRY, AND THEY'RE IN POSITIVE SHAPE. EVERYBODY WANTS TO GET THERE FASTER. WE WANT TO GET THERE FASTER IN A WHOLE RANGE OF AREAS AS WELL, AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE DOING. WHEN YOU MENTION THE REGIONS, IN 2013 YOU PUT OUT THIS PRESS RELEASE, WHICH SAYS, 'REGIONS LEADING NZ'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY.' AND LAST YEAR YOU PUT OUT THIS ONE, WHICH WAS, 'REGIONS LEAD RECOVERY FROM THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS.' AND THAT'S TRUE. THE THING IS, YOU COULDN'T PUT THOSE OUT IN GOOD FAITH THIS YEAR, THOUGH, COULD YOU? OH, YES, YOU COULD. THERE'S SOME REGIONS THAT ARE GOING PARTICULARLY WELL. I WAS IN BAY OF PLENTY THE OTHER DAY, AND THAT IS REALLY HONKING AWAY, BECAUSE IT'S GOT A VERY STRONG RECOVERY, FOR EXAMPLE, FROM KIWIFRUIT. SO BAY OF PLENTY MISSED OUT A LITTLE BIT IN THIS STORY THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT BACK IN 2013. YES, TARANAKI WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN BOTH OF THESE PRESS RELEASES AS GOING GREAT GUNS. IT'S IN RECESSION NOW. WELL, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN SAY THAT. NO, YOU'RE USING NUMBERS THAT DON'T ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT AT ALL, SOME ANZ NUMBERS OR NZIR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. < SO DO YOU THINK IT'S ROSY? NO, I'M NOT SAYING THAT. IT'S ANZ NUMBERS, BUT DO YOU THINK IT'S ROSY? I'M SAYING IT'S TOUGHER THAN IT WAS BEFORE, BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT THE TWO BIGGEST INDUSTRIES IN TARANAKI STRUGGLING AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF LOW DAIRY PRICES AND LOW INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES. THAT'S DEFINITELY HAVING AN IMPACT. BUT IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT THAT ACTUALLY, IT WAS THE REGIONS THAT LIFTED NZ OUT OF THE GFC. WHAT'S GOING ON NOW IS IT'S PROBABLY MORE THE TOP HALF OF THE COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY WAIKATO, BAY OF PLENTY, AUCKLAND. AUCKLAND WAS LATE TO THE PARTY AND SO WAS THE BAY OF PLENTY, BECAUSE OF THE KIWIFRUIT. AND IT ALL DOES CHANGE OVER TIME. AND IT IS CHANGING. I SUPPOSE THAT'S THE POINT. A YEAR AGO YOU WERE SAYING, NATIONAL WERE SAYING, THAT A STRONG ECONOMY WAS A TOP PRIORITY. AND IT IS. > BUT EVERYONE IS REVISING DOWN THEIR PROJECTIONS. EXPORTS ARE FALLING. UNEMPLOYMENT IS PROJECTED TO GROW. DO YOU CONCEDE THAT YOU'RE NOT MEETING TARGETS FROM LAST YEAR? WELL, EXPORTS AREN'T FALLING. CHINA. WELL, CHINA IS DEFINITELY IS. YEAH. THAT'S RIGHT, AND DAIRY DEFINITELY, BUT, ACTUALLY, OTHER EXPORTS ARE GROWING. IN FACT, THE REAL STORY OF THE LAST 12 MONTHS IN EXPORT TURNOVER IS HOW MUCH THAT OVERALL EXPORTS STAYED UP, NOTWITHSTANDING VERY TOUGH TIMES, AS YOU SAY, IN THE DAIRY SPACE. SO WHAT I THINK WE ARE SEEING IS A STORY OF NZ'S INCREASING RESILIENCE ACROSS A RANGE OF INDUSTRIES, AND, YES, DAIRY IS NOT ABLE TO CARRY THE WEIGHT THAT IT ONCE DID IN THE NZ ECONOMY AT THE MOMENT, BUT OTHER INDUSTRIES ARE COMING. YOU'RE NOT MEETING THOSE GROWTH PROJECTIONS FROM LAST YEAR, I MEAN, ARE YOU? WELL, THAT'S RIGHT. I MEAN, THE GROWTH HAS SOFTENED SINCE, BUT I THINK THE REALITY IS MOST NZERS KNOW THAT THINGS DO GO THROUGH CYCLES. THEY LOOK AT THE WORLD ECONOMY, AND THEY SEE THAT IT IS COMING BACK A LITTLE BIT, THAT CHINA IS COMING BACK A LITTLE BIT, AND WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS LOOKING TO US TO CONTINUE TO DO THE THINGS THAT ACTUALLY PUTS US IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LIGHT, AND WE ARE DOING SO. SO SOME OF THOSE BIG MACRO THINGS LIKE FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, WE'RE WELL AHEAD OF MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORLD. OUR INTERNATIONAL LIABILITY ` WHAT WE AS A COUNTRY OWE THE WORLD ` CONTINUES TO DROP. OUR EXPORTS HAVE STAYED UP REALLY WELL DESPITE THESE THINGS. OK. WELL, LAST TIME YOU WERE HERE ON THE SHOW, YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT ENCOURAGING FOREIGN INVESTMENT ` GROWING FOREIGN INVESTMENT. YES, THAT'S RIGHT. NOW, HOW VITAL IS THAT? BECAUSE YOU HAD SOMEONE STANDING BY TO INVEST $88M IN LOCHINVER STATION, AND YOU TOLD THEM TO GO AWAY. THE GOVERNMENT TOLD THEM TO GO AWAY, EVEN THOUGH THE OVERSEAS INVESTMENT OFFICE SAID YOU COULD DO THE DEAL. HOW DO YOU SQUARE THAT ONE AWAY? WELL, FIRSTLY, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IS VERY IMPORTANT ` INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN ALL OF IT GOES THROUGH, BECAUSE WE DO HAVE A TEST, AS YOU KNOW, A SENSITIVE LAND TEST, THAT MINISTERS HAVE TO APPLY. THEY HAVE TO DO IT ON THEIR OWN. THEY GET ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS, BUT, ACTUALLY, THEY HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL, AND, AS WE KNOW, THESE THINGS HAVE BEEN LITIGATED QUITE A LOT IN THE PAST, SO IT'S QUITE A LOT OF WEIGHT TO CARRY. AND IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A TEST, THAT MEANS ONE OR TWO OF THEM WON'T GET THROUGH. AND IN THIS CASE, THIS ONE DID NOT MEET THE TEST. THE TWO MINISTERS DECIDED THAT IT WASN'T SUFFICIENT` BUT JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, YOU WERE HERE SAYING IT WAS CRUCIAL TO GET INVESTMENT, YOU WANTED MORE INVESTMENT, AND THE OVERSEAS INVESTMENT OFFICE SAID, 'YEAH, YOU CAN DO THIS DEAL.' WELL, THEY SAID ON BALANCE, BUT DON'T FORGET THE MINISTERS ACTUALLY HAVE TO MAKE THE DECISION. IN THIS INSTANCE, THEY CAN BE LEGALLY REVIEWED IF THEY MAKE THE WRONG DECISION, SO THEY ACTUALLY DO HAVE TO TAKE ADVICE. THEY TOOK ADVICE FROM THE OFFICIALS, AND THEY TOOK ADVICE FROM AN ECONOMIST ` AN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST. THEY TOOK ADVICE FROM A RANGE OF SOURCES BECAUSE THEY'RE VERY AWARE THAT THIS PARTICULAR ONE, AS WITH OTHER ONES, CAN POTENTIALLY BE LITIGATED BEFORE THE COURTS, AND THEY'RE WANTING TO GET IT RIGHT. BUT WHEN LABOUR SAID IT WOULD BLOCK THIS DEAL, YOU SAID THAT WAS XENOPHOBIC, SO BY YOUR OWN MEASURE` NO, I SAID THEIR GENERAL ATTITUDE TO INTERNATIONAL` NO, I SAID` SO BY YOUR OWN MEASURE, YOU MUST BE THEREFORE BE XENOPHOBIC TOO. NO, I SAID IT'S THEIR MEASURE IS THAT THEY DON'T LIKE CHINESE INVESTMENT. < NO, NO. NO, IT WAS` I MEAN, THESE ARE THE GUYS THAT` NO, IT WAS SPECIFICALLY IN RELATION TO LOCHINVER. NO` LET ME HAVE A GO. NO, I WANT TO GET THIS RIGHT. IT WAS SPECIFICALLY IN RELATION TO LOCHINVER, AND YOU SAID` NO, IT WAS IN RELATION TO THEIR INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT. I WAS THERE TOO. 'A LITTLE XENOPHOBIA FROM LABOUR TO START THE DAY' IS WHAT YOU SAID. THAT'S RIGHT, BECAUSE ACTUALLY THEY ARE AGAINST CHINESE INVESTMENT. THEY'RE THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN OUT THERE ` AND YOU SAW IT ON YOUR CLIP ` SAYING THAT CHINESE-SOUNDING SURNAMES SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO BUY PROPERTY IN AUCKLAND. < BUT YOU DID EXACTLY WHAT YOU ACCUSED THEM OF DOING. NO, THAT'S NOT CORRECT AT ALL. WHAT WE DID IS APPLY THE SAME TEST THAT WE APPLY TO EVERYBODY. THE TEST HAS NOT CHANGED. AND ACTUALLY, MOST NZERS KNOW THAT WE DO APPLY A TEST OF ECONOMIC BENEFIT. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PARTICULAR COUNTRY THAT PEOPLE ARE FROM. WE'RE NOT THE ONES OUT THERE SAYING, 'IF YOU'VE GOT A CHINESE-SOUNDING SURNAME, 'IF THIS BRINGS AN ECONOMIC BENEFIT TO NZ, YOU'RE IN,' AND IT'S IRRESPECTIVE IF WHETHER YOU'RE CHINESE, AMERICAN OR WHOEVER. LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF YOUR THIRD TERM STRATEGY. YOU'VE INCREASED BENEFITS, YOU'RE TAKING MORE REFUGEES, YOU'VE INCREASED PARENTAL LEAVE, AND YOU'VE INTRODUCED A SORT OF NON-TAX TAX ON PROPERTY INVESTORS ` SO ALL THE THINGS` WELL, ACTUALLY, IT'S JUST A BRIGHT-LINE TEST. THEY'RE ALL THE THINGS THAT YOU HAVE ARGUED AGAINST IN THE PAST. NO. SO HOW ARE YOU FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT TO A LABOUR GOVERNMENT? I DON'T THINK WE ACTUALLY ARGUED AGAINST ALL THOSE THINGS IN THE PAST AT ALL. < YES, YOU HAVE. NO, NO, THAT'S NOT TRUE. PARENTAL LEAVE, WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN IN FAVOUR. THE CHALLENGE WITH PARENTAL LEAVE, AND IT'S STILL A DEBATE THAT'S GOING ON TODAY, IS HOW THE COUNTRY AFFORDS IT IN THE CONTEXT` THE QUESTION WAS ` HOW ARE YOU DIFFERENT TO LABOUR? OK, IF YOU WANT TO SAY THAT` FUNDAMENTALLY, GIVEN THAT LIST OF THINGS. FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF OUR TRUST OF THE INDIVIDUAL; OUR FOCUS ON GROWING THE ECONOMY, ATTRACTING INVESTMENT; PUSHING INNOVATION, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT LABOUR HAS ARGUED AGAINST; THE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AND ROADING; AND THINGS LIKE WATER STORAGE, CENTRAL PLAINS WATER, THE ENCOURAGEMENT OF THAT; THE INVESTMENT IN BROADBAND, WHICH HAS BEEN CRITICISED BY LABOUR ALL THE WAY; SO THE ENCOURAGEMENT OF GROWTH IN THE NZ ECONOMY; AND THE LOWER TAX` < SO THAT'S HOW YOU'RE DIFFERENT, YOU'RE ENCOURAGING GROWTH IN THE NZ ECONOMY? I'M JUST SAYING, THE METHOD BY WHICH WE DO IT. THE THINGS THAT THEY'RE TURNING AROUND AND SAYING AT THE MOMENT IS THAT, FIRSTLY, THEY'D WANT TO KNOCK MIGRATION ON THE HEAD, WHICH ACTUALLY IS A POSITIVE FOR NZ. IT'S A POSITIVE FOR NZ'S ICT COMPANIES; IT'S A POSITIVE FOR THE SOUTH ISLAND. AND THE OTHER THING THEY CAME UP WITH IN AN INTERVIEW, I THINK, LAST WEEKEND WAS THAT THEY WOULD DO NOTHING EXCEPT PROMOTE THE CRL IN AUCKLAND AND, PERHAPS, THIS OPOTIKI HARBOUR DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WE'RE ALREADY WORKING ON. SO THEY DON'T ACTUALLY HAVE MUCH OF THEIR OWN THINGS TO ACTUALLY PROMOTE AT THE MOMENT. < OK, BEFORE WE GO, I JUST WANT TO ASK YOU ONE FINAL QUESTION. IF YOU DIG INTO THE POLLS, JOHN KEY'S NUMBERS ARE HIGH, BUT THE TREND IS DOWN ` HONESTY RATINGS, LOWEST EVER; CAPABILITY, LOWEST EVER. IS THAT A REFLECTION OF BEING OUT OF TOUCH? LOOK, MY VIEW IS THAT IF YOU ASK ANYBODY IN THE NATIONAL PARTY, WOULD THEY WANT JOHN KEY TO BE THEIR PRIME MINISTER AND LEADER, THEY WOULD SAY ABSOLUTELY, BECAUSE` BUT IT'S A TREND, ISN'T IT? IT'S A DOWNWARD TREND. NO, I DON'T THINK IT IS AT ALL. AND WHEN YOU SAY THAT, I MEAN, QUITE GENUINELY, WE HAVE THE HIGHEST RATINGS OF A LEADER` NO, IT ACTUALLY IS A DOWNWARD TREND, COS THEY'RE NUMBERS, SO THE NUMBERS ARE TRACKING DOWN. BUT MY POINT IS ` IN ANY POINT IN NZ HISTORY, HAS THERE BEEN A PRIME MINISTER WHO IS MORE IN TOUCH WITH NZ IN HIS SEVENTH YEAR AS BEING PRIME MINISTER? I'D VERY VERY MUCH DOUBT IT. I THINK MOST PARTIES WOULD LOVE TO HAVE A LEADER AS SUCCESSFUL AND AS IN TOUCH WITH NZERS AS WE HAVE. AND ACTUALLY, THE TEST WILL BE FOR US IN TWO YEARS' TIME ` WHICH IS I'M SURE WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO TALK ABOUT, BECAUSE THAT'S COMING UP QUITE RAPIDLY ` IN JUST ANOTHER TWO YEARS, WITH BE WHETHER WE'RE DOING THE RIGHT THINGS FOR NZERS, AND NOT WHETHER THEY SEE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET AHEAD, AND THAT WE WILL ENHANCE THEIR SECURITY, AND THOSE ARE THE THINGS WE'RE FOCUSED ON. WE'LL LEAVE IT THERE. THANKS FOR JOINING US THIS MORNING, MINISTER. LATER, WINSTON PETERS ON WHO'S THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, AND JAMES SHAW ON PRAGMATISM. BUT UP NEXT ` LABOUR LIKES TO SAY THEY'RE TRYING TO BOWL NATIONAL OUT, SO IS THAT WORKING? WELL, ANDREW LITTLE JOINS US AFTER THE BREAK. WELCOME BACK. A YEAR AGO, ANDREW LITTLE WASN'T EVEN SURE HE'D RETAINED HIS SEAT. BUT HE NOT ONLY SURVIVED ` HE BECAME LEADER. THE PARTY SEEMS TO HAVE STABILISED, BUT THE POLLS HAVE BEEN PRETTY STABLE AS WELL. WITH LABOUR STRUGGLING TO DENT NATIONAL'S LEAD, AND LITTLE'S OWN POPULARITY NO BETTER THAN HIS PREDECESSORS. PADDY IS WITH ANDREW LITTLE. ANDREW LITTLE, GOOD MORNING AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. THIS WEEK YOU SAID YOU PITIED AUSTRALIA, BECAUSE MALCOLM TURNBULL SAID HE WANTED TO BE LIKE JOHN KEY. DOES THAT MEAN THAT YOU PITY NEW ZEALAND? IF YOU HAVE A LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED UNDER THIS GOVERNMENT ` YOU KNOW, SEVEN YEARS INTO IT, WE'VE GOT RISING UNEMPLOYMENT, WE HAVE A PRIMARY PRODUCTION SECTOR THAT IS REALLY STRUGGLING NOW BECAUSE OF COMMODITY PRICES, A WHOLE RANGE OF OTHER ISSUES THAT SIMPLY AREN'T BEING ADDRESSED. SO IF MALCOLM TURNBULL'S AMBITION FOR AUSTRALIA IS TO REPLICATE WHAT WE'VE GOT IN NZ ` YOU KNOW, NOT VERY GOOD FOR AUSTRALIANS. SO DO YOU PITY NEW ZEALAND AS WELL? WERE NOT DOING WELL, AND YOU GET AROUND AND YOU SEE IT ESPECIALLY IN THE REGIONS. I SPEND A LOT OF MY TIME GETTING AROUND, TALKING TO PEOPLE, TALKING TO CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE, TALKING TO OTHER ORGANISATIONS IN THOSE REGIONS. PEOPLE ARE REALLY FEELING THE PINCH NOW, FEELING THE STRUGGLE, AND WHAT THEY SEE` THEY KNOW THAT A GOVERNMENT CANT CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS ON WORLD MARKETS AND COMMODITY PRICES, BUT WHAT THEY DO EXPECT A GOVERNMENT TO DO IS, A) UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM, AND B) HAVE SOME SORT OF PLAN TO RESPOND TO IT, WHICH WE DON'T HAVE AT THE MOMENT. SURE, BUT PITY IS SUCH A STRONG WORD, ISN'T IT? I MEAN, DO YOU THINK THAT NEW ZEALANDERS REALLY FEEL PITIFUL, OR IS THAT JUST TOO NEGATIVE? I THINK YOU'RE COMPLETELY OVER-INTERPRETING THE THING. THE QUESTION I WAS ASKED WAS ABOUT MALCOLM TURNBULL'S AMBITION FOR AUSTRALIA, AND HE LOOKS TO NZ. THE REALITY IS THINGS AREN'T WORKING THAT WELL IN NZ. WE'VE GOT A GOVERNMENT THAT IS SO MUCH FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM, HASN'T THOUGHT ABOUT A LONG-TERM PLAN, HASN'T THOUGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO WHEN YOU'VE BEEN SO DEPENDENT ON COMMODITY PRICES THAT GO UP AND DOWN, WHAT YOU DO FOR THE PERIODS WHEN IT GOES DOWN. WE JUST DON'T HAVE THAT TYPE OF THINKING IN THE GOVERNMENT AT THE MOMENT. SURE. WE'VE SEEN LOTS OF THIRD-TERM ITEMS FROM THIS GOVERNMENT ` YOU KNOW, WORM FARMS, SAUDI SHEEP SCANDALS, PONYTAIL PULLING ` BUT STILL THE POLL RATINGS HAVEN'T CHANGED. JOHN KEYS EXACTLY WHERE HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN. WHAT DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT GIVES HIM AN UNBREAKABLE BOND WITH CENTRE VOTERS? TWO THINGS. WE'VE HAD A HELL OF A JOB TO DO FROM OUR ELECTORAL RESULT LAST YEAR ` A PARTY THAT, FRANKLY, WAS IN DISARRAY. I HAD A BIG JOB TO DO NOT ONLY WORKING WITH CAUCUS ` GETTING THEM FOCUSED AND COHESIVE AND WORKING WELL, GETTING THE HITS ON THE GOVERNMENT; BUT OUR LEADERS OFFICE GETTING THAT SET UP RIGHT, GETTING GOOD TALENT AND WORKING PROFESSIONALLY WELL, GETTING THE PARTY WORKING, GETTING THE PARTY ORGANISATION, GETTING THEM SORTED OUT, WHICH IS ALL THE STUFF WE'VE BEEN DOING. AND, ACTUALLY, THE RESPONSE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD. WHAT WE'VE GOT IN THE GOVERNMENT NOW, YOU'VE SEEN IT ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR, A GOVERNMENT THAT IS TOTALLY OUT OF TOUCH. THEY WERE WRONG ON THE SELLING OF PRODUCTIVE LAND TO FOREIGN BUYS. THEY WERE WRONG ON SYRIAN REFUGEES. THEY WERE WRONG ON THE FLAG. THIS IS THE GOVERNMENT THAT HAS PRIDED ITSELF ON BEING IN TOUCH WITH NEW ZEALANDERS. THEY'VE PROVEN THEMSELVES TO BE TOTALLY OUT OF TOUCH. YEAH, BUT THE POLL RATINGS DON'T SHOW THAT THEY'RE OUT OF TOUCH, BECAUSE THEY CHANGE THEIR POSITION ON ALL THOSE THINGS THAT YOU'VE JUST ANSWERED TO MEET WHAT THE PUBLIC WANTS. YEAH, DID IT SLOWLY, GRUDGINGLY, RELUCTANTLY. WHAT I PICK UP AROUND NEW ZEALAND` WHAT I PICK UP AROUND NEW ZEALAND IN RESPONSE TO LABOUR IS PEOPLE SAYING, WE SEE YOU, WE HEAR YOU, WE QUITE LIKE WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. BUT WE WANT TO KNOW, WHEN YOU'VE HAD THREE ELECTION DEFEATS, YOU, FRANKLY, HAVEN'T LOOKED PARTICULARLY COHESIVE. 'WE WANT TO KNOW THAT YOU'RE GOING TO HOLD IT TOGETHER OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, 'AND THEN WELL THINK ABOUT SHIFTING OUR ALLEGIANCE.' AND THAT'S WHERE WERE AT AT THE MOMENT. SURE, SURE, SURE. SO IN TERMS OF WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT BEFORE, WHICH IS, SORT OF, HOLDING THAT CENTRE GROUND, HOW IS LABOUR EVER GOING TO GET IN AND TAKE THAT? BECAUSE YOU RAISED THEM YOURSELF THAT YOU'RE EXTREMELY PRAGMATIC RAISING BENEFITS, THE REFUGEES, LOCHINVER STATION. THEY'LL TURN ON A DIME, PUBLIC OPINION. HOW DO YOU BEAT THAT? AND WHAT I THINK PEOPLE ARE SEEING IS THIS IS A GOVERNMENT THAT'S VERY TRANSACTIONAL. WERE IN TROUBLE ON THIS; WELL DO JUST ENOUGH TO GET OVER THE LINE. TROUBLE ON THAT ISSUE; 'WELL, ONCE AGAIN WELL JUST FIDDLE AROUND A BIT HERE.' WHAT I THINK PEOPLE ARE NOW LOOKING FOR IS VALUES-DRIVEN LEADERSHIP, LEADERSHIP OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS ABOUT WHO WE ARE AS PEOPLE, NOT ABOUT WHAT FLAG WERE WAVING AND ALL THAT SORT OF STUFF, BUT OUR REPUTATION INTERNATIONALLY, HOW WE FEEL ABOUT EACH OTHER WITHIN NEW ZEALAND, A LEADERSHIP OF A COUNTRY THAT ACTUALLY HAS A MORAL COMPASS FOR ONCE, NOT JUST DRIVEN BY THE LATEST FOCUS GROUP OR THE LATEST POLL RESULT. YEAH, BECAUSE ITS EASY TO SAY THAT THEY'RE POLL-DRIVEN OR WHATEVER, BUT THE PUBLIC DOESN'T SEE THAT. THE PUBLIC SEES A GOVERNMENT GIVING THEM WHAT THEY WANT. WELL, THAT'S NOT WHAT I PICK UP, AND IT'S NOT` THAT'S WHAT THE POLLS SAY. THE POLLS PUT THEM AT 47%. YEAH, AND WERE TWO YEARS OUT FROM AN ELECTION. WE KNOW THAT THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE FEELING A SENSE OF DISQUIET ABOUT WHERE NEW ZEALAND IS AT, ABOUT WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES AND HOW THEY CONDUCT THEMSELVES AND WANTING SOMETHING DIFFERENT. SO I FEEL VERY GOOD ABOUT THE WORK WE HAVE TO DO WITHIN THE LABOUR PARTY TO GET OURSELVES FUNCTIONALLY VIABLE, GETTING HITS ON THE GOVERNMENT AND WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO LIFT PEOPLE'S CONFIDENCE IN US, AND IM VERY CONFIDENT IN THE PROGRESS WE'RE MAKING AND WHERE WERE GOING AND WHERE WE'LL BE IN 2017. SURE. SO IS ALL THAT WORK DONE? CAN YOU GET OUT THERE AND FOCUS ON VOTERS NOW, OR HAVE YOU STILL GOT WORK TO DO REBUILDING NOT JUST IN THE LEADERSHIP OFFICE AND THE CAUCUS, BUT WITHIN THE PARTY? IS THAT WORK DONE? WE'VE BEEN VERY FOCUSED, ACTUALLY, ON WHAT NEW ZEALANDERS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT. THAT'S WHY WE'VE RAISED THE ISSUE ABOUT HOUSE PRICES IN AUCKLAND, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE ECONOMY, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE HEALTH SECTOR; WERE DEALING WITH THOSE ISSUES. WE'VE HAD TO DO THE REBUILD AT THE SAME TIME. WE` IS THE REBUILD DONE? YEAH, BY AND LARGE, I THINK THERE'S A BIT OF WORK TO DO IN THE PARTY. BUT I THINK` WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IN THE PARTY? WELL, NOW WE'VE GOT THE BIG POLICY DEVELOPMENT STUFF TO DO. I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR THAT THIS YEAR WOULD BE A YEAR FOR ME AND THE PARTY TO GET OUT AND ABOUT AND TO LISTEN. NOT TO DO ALL THE TALKING AND TELLING PEOPLE HOW IT SHOULD BE, BUT TO LISTEN TO NEW ZEALANDERS. NEXT YEAR WILL BE THE YEAR FOR BRINGING TOGETHER THE IDEAS AND PUTTING OUT THE POLICIES. 2017 IS ABOUT CAMPAIGNING TO WIN. THAT'S THE PROGRAM, AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE STICKING WITH. OK. SO LET'S LOOK AT IT THIS WAY ` WHY WOULD A SWING-VOTER, SOMEONE IN THE CENTRE, SWITCH FROM NATIONAL TO LABOUR? WHAT` WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT? CAN YOU GIVE ME A PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE? OF A SLOWING ECONOMY. THEY'RE A CONCERN` WHAT'S A PRACTICAL THING THAT LABOUR WOULD DO THAT WOULD MAKE SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN VOTING NATIONAL SWITCH OVER TO THEM? AN ACTUAL PRACTICAL EXAMPLE OF SOMETHING. SO IF YOU'RE STRUGGLING TO GET YOUR FIRST HOME BECAUSE IT'S JUST SO UNAFFORDABLE AND YOUR INCOME'S NOT KEEPING UP, WE HAVE A PROGRAM TO BUILD AFFORDABLE HOMES. THAT MEANS YOU CAN` KIWIBUILD? THAT WAS BROUGHT IN UNDER DAVID SHEARER. YEAH, WELL` YEAH` YEARS AGO. YEAH, IT HASN'T HAPPENED. WHAT'S THE BIGGEST FAILURE IN THE HOUSING MARKET RIGHT NOW? JUST A LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSES. SO BEYOND DAVID SHEARER'S KIWIBUILD POLICY, WHAT'S A PRACTICAL EXAMPLE OF SOMETHING THAT LABOUR OFFERS THAT NATIONAL WON'T GIVE THEM. WELL, THAT'S ONE. IS THERE ANOTHER ONE? THERE'S PLENTY. BUT YOU'RE ASKING` YOU'RE ASKING` IS THERE NOT A DAVID SHEARER ONE? IS THERE AN ANDREW LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LABOUR AND NATIONAL? SO I'LL GO BACK TO WHAT WE SAID BEFORE. WE HAD A BIG JOB OF REBUILDING TO DO FOR A PARTY THAT WAS` YES, I KNOW THAT. YEAH` NO, NO, NO. YOU'RE ASKING THE QUESTION, 'BUT WHAT'S THE NEW IDEA THAT ANDREW LITTLE'S COME UP WITH?' THAT'S` THAT'S` I KNOW, AND IT'S A GOOD QUESTION. IT'S THE RIGHT QUESTION TO ASK, WHICH IS WHY I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF MY LEADERSHIP, THIS IS NOT A YEAR FOR, WITHIN A MATTER OF WEEKS OR DAYS, TURNING AROUND OUR POLICY AND COMING UP WITH A 2017 MANIFESTO. THIS WAS A YEAR FOR GETTING OUT AND ABOUT AND LISTENING TO NEW ZEALANDERS. THAT'S WHAT WE'VE DONE. WE'VE HAD OUR FUTURE OF WORK COMMISSION PROJECT THAT GRANT ROBERTSON'S BEEN LEADING. THAT'S DEALING WITH A BIT LONG-TERM ISSUE THAT WE HAVE TO START THINKING ABOUT NOW. NEXT YEAR IS THE IDEAS AND THE POLICIES THAT WE'LL TAKE INTO 2017. TO CLARIFY, THE BIG ANDREW LITTLE IDEA THAT'S PRACTICABLY DIFFERENT TO ANYTHING THAT NATIONAL'S GOT IS COMING NEXT YEAR? NO, NO. I WAS VERY CLEAR ABOUT WHAT WE NEEDED TO DO FOR THE PARTY, FOR THE LABOUR PARTY TO RECONNECT, TO REBUILD. AND WE'RE ON THAT PROGRAMME. SO IF I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF YEAR, DON'T EXPECT ANY BIG IDEAS, BECAUSE WE'RE DOING THIS OTHER STUFF,' DON'T ASK ME. I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO NEXT YEAR. BUT I'VE GOT TO MOVE ON. I'VE GOT TO MOVE ON QUICKLY. ANNETTE KING DO YOU WANT HER TO STAY ON AS DEPUTY? I'M LOOKING AT ALL THOSE PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT.THERE'S A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE FRAME. DO YOU WANT ANNETTE KING TO STAY ON AS DEPUTY? THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE FRAME FOR THAT ROLE, AND WHAT I'VE GOT TO DO, WHAT I WANT TO HAVE IS A TEAM THAT'S GOING TO TAKE US THROUGH INTO 2017. WOULD JACINDA ARDERN MAKE A GOOD DEPUTY? WELL, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE FRAME FOR THAT ROLE, AND I'M HAVING THE INTERVIEWS AND GIVING CONSIDERATIONS NOW. HOW MANY ARE IN THE FRAME, THEN, IF YOU'RE HAVING INTERVIEWS AND STUFF? WELL, I'M NOT CONDUCTING THE CAUCUS REVIEW ON LIVE TV AT THE MOMENT; I'M GOING THROUGH THE INTERVIEWS, I'M GIVING VERY CAREFUL CONSIDERATION TO THE TEAM WE NEED TO TAKE US INTO AND BEYOND 2017. YOU'VE PREVIOUSLY SAID THAT THE DEPUTY SHOULD BE A WOMAN. WELL, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE FRAME. DOES THAT STILL STAND, THOUGH? SHOULD THE DEPUTY OF THE LABOUR PARTY BE A WOMAN? WELL, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE BEING CONSIDERED, MEN AND WOMEN, FOR THE ROLE. SO IT COULD BE A MAN, THEN? AND I'LL MAKE THOSE DECISIONS. IT'LL BE ROUGHLY THE END OF NOVEMBER FOR THE TEAM THAT'LL TAKE US THROUGH TO 2017. THAT'S A GOOD PLACE TO LEAVE IT. ANDREW LITTLE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. CHEERS, PADDY. OH YEAH, WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK NOW. BUT WHEN WE COME BACK, THE LEADERS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER PARTIES ` I WAS JUST REALLY ENJOYING TALKING TO ANDREW LITTLE, THERE ` BUT FIRST TIME FOR THE NATION'S MOMENT OF ZEN ` I ACTUALLY NEED IT AFTER THIS TOO ` POLITICS IN 60 SECONDS. THE BIG QUESTION THIS WEEK ` IS THE CURE FOR DEPRESSION JUST TO HARDEN UP? OH, OF COURSE NOT. THAT'S DISGRACEFUL. THE CURE'S TO WALK IT OFF. EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. OR JUST ACT HAPPY. YEAH. ACTUALLY, ISN'T THE BIGGER QUESTION THIS WEEK, 'WHY DON'T WE DO A REVIEW OF THE YEAR SINCE THE ELECTION?' OH, HERE WE GO. LOOK, PAUL, I WANT TO TAKE THE SHOW IN A NEW DIRECTION. IT'S TOO SIMILAR TO THAT AUSTRALIAN SHOW 'GRANTED.' BUT WE'VE GOT OUR FOUR OPTIONS. YOU CAN JUST SUDDENLY COME UP WITH A FIFTH OPTION, THIS PEAK AT THE YEAR, AND EXPECT IT TO BE INCLUDED. BUT EVERYONE WANTS IT INCLUDED. I MEAN, I'M HAPPY TO MEET WITH YOU ABOUT IT. I'M HAPPY TO MEET. I'D LOVE TO MEET. LET'S HAVE A MEETING. LET'S MEET. LET'S MEET. I WOULD LOVE TO MEET. I LOVE MEETINGS. HEY, THE FIRST QUESTION I'D LIKE TO PUT FORWARD WHEN WE MEET ` 'SHOULD WE EVEN BE CHANGING THE SHOW AT ALL?' I DON'T WANT A MEETING. NO MORE MEETINGS. I'M NOT GONNA MEET. WELL, WHY NOT? WELL, NOT IF YOU WANT THAT TO BE THE FIRST QUESTION. I DON'T! YOU JUST SAID YOU DID! WELL, ONLY VERBALLY. THAT'S NOT WHAT I PUT IN MY LETTER. OH YEAH. AND I REPLIED TO YOUR LETTER WITH MY LETTER. MUM EVEN LET ME TAKE IT OFF THE FRIDGE SO I COULD SHOW YOU. I THINK IT'S CLEAR TO EVERYONE, PAUL, THAT IF WE DON'T GET THIS PEAK AT THE YEAR IN THE SHOW, IT IS YOUR FAULT BECAUSE YOU DON'T WANT A MEETING. (SCOFFS) I WISH WE WERE MORE LIKE THAT AUSTRALIAN SHOW. OH, AND WHY'S THAT? WELL, AT LEAST THEY CHANGE THE HOST EVERY YEAR. (SCOFFS) LIKE WE'RE GONNA BE HERE IN A YEAR. THAT'S A GOOD POINT. WELL, THE NORTHLAND BY-ELECTION SHOWED THAT DESPITE HITTING 70, WINSTON PETERS IS STILL A FORCE TO BE RECKONED WITH. HIS WIN WAS JOHN KEY'S FIRST DEFEAT SINCE HE BECAME NATIONAL'S LEADER AND SPOOKED THE GOVERNMENT. PADDY SPOKE TO WINSTON PETERS BEFORE HE HEADED OFF TO THE WORLD CUP AND BEGAN BY ASKING JUST HOW HIGH THE STAKES WERE IN HIS DECISION TO CONTEST THAT BY-ELECTION. IT WAS AN AWFULLY HIGH-STAKES GAMBLE. I DON'T THINK PEOPLE REALISE THAT WE WERE PUTTING IT ALL ON THE LINE, BUT WE DID. WE TOOK ENORMOUS RISKS. BUT THEN IF YOU DON'T HAVE A GO, HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY WIN? SO IT WAS HIGH STAKES BECAUSE YOU COULD HAVE COME OUT A LOSER, WASN'T IT? YES. WE COULD HAVE WASTED A LOT OF MONEY, COME OUT A LOSER. WE WERE UP AGAINST A 70,412-VOTE START TO THE NATIONAL PARTY. THAT'S HOW MUCH THEY HAD AGAINST OUR VOTE IN TERMS OF A CANDIDATE IN 2014. SO IT WAS A BIG GAMBLE. BUT WE DID OUR WORK AND WE DID OUR STRATEGY, AND WE THOUGHT, FRANKLY, THAT PEOPLE UP THERE ARE SO NEGLECTED THAT WE WERE CERTAIN THAT THEY WOULD RESPOND. AND FOR YOU PERSONALLY, COS I WAS WITH YOU WHEN WE WENT BACK TO WHANANAKI, AND IT WAS A BIG THING FOR YOU PERSONALLY, WASN'T IT, THAT YOU STILL HAVE THAT SENSE OF PERSONAL ACHIEVEMENT OF WINNING YOUR HOME BASE? WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT IT BEING A MASSIVE CHALLENGE, PROBABLY THE BIGGEST ONE WE'VE TAKEN ON. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR YOU PERSONALLY IN POLITICS? POSSIBLY IN MY CAREER, YES. WELL, THAT IS A LONG WAY STARTING FROM BEHIND WITH ONLY 27 ACTUAL DAYS TO DO IT. BUT WE MADE EVERY ONE COUNT, AND NOW WE'VE GOT TO ENSURE THAT NORTHLAND IS NOT FORGOTTEN. HAS YOUR VIEW OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT CHANGED IN THIS YEAR IN ANY WAY? DO YOU THINK THEY ARE BETTER; DO YOU THINK THEY ARE WORSE THAN BEFORE THE ELECTION? I'M NOT BEING WISE AFTER THE EVENT, BUT WE CAMPAIGNED IN 2014 ABOUT THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS THIS COUNTRY WAS FACING AND THE INAPPROPRIATENESS OF THE NATIONAL PARTY'S STRATEGY. I SAID SO ON ELECTION NIGHT. AND SADLY, IT'S COMING TRUE. THE ECONOMIC PROGNOSIS IS NOT GOOD. MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ARE IN RECESSION NOW. AND WE THINK IF IT WASN'T FOR MASSIVE CONSUMPTION BORN OF MASS IMMIGRATION ` THAT'S ALMOST 60,000 NET A YEAR THIS COUNTRY WOULD BE IN RECESSION RIGHT NOW. SO WHAT ABOUT LABOUR? DO YOU THINK THEY HAVE STABILISED, LOOKING AT THE OTHER SIDE? WELL, LABOUR IS SUFFERING FROM FAR TOO MUCH CHANGE. THEY'VE HAD TOO MANY LEADERS AND TOO MANY DEPUTY LEADERS IN TOO SHORT A TIME. SO I THINK IT'S DIFFICULT FOR ONE TO MAKE A JUDGEMENT THERE. YOU CAN'T SAY WHETHER THEY'VE STABILISED OR NOT? WELL, IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY. ONLY THE PUBLIC CAN TELL YOU THAT. IT'S ONLY THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION WILL TELL YOU WHETHER THAT'S HAPPENED OR OTHERWISE. ON THAT, AND LOOKING AT ROLES IN POLITICS, ARE YOU THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION? THERE ARE MANY ISSUES IN WHICH WE HAVE LED THE OPPOSITION, THAT'S A FACT. FOREIGN ASSET SALES; THE NEED FOR THE RESERVE BANK TO BE REFORMED TO SUIT OUR TYPE OF ECONOMY; ON THE QUESTION OF THE FLAG, EVERY OTHER PARTY JOINED THE COMMITTEE. WE REFUSED TO, BECAUSE WE DEFEND OUR CURRENT FLAG, AND WE DID NOT THINK THE PROCESS WAS IN ANY WAY DEMOCRATIC, AND WE'VE BEEN PROVEN RIGHT. SO IN MANY WAYS WE HAVE LED THE OPPOSITION, AND THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. BUT DO YOU FEEL THAT YOU, WINSTON PETERS, THAT YOU ARE THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION? I'VE ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT UNDER MMP THE SO-CALLED LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION IS A TOTAL ANACHRONISM. LOOK WHO WE'VE HAD IN THE PAST BRASH, BILL ENGLISH, WE'VE HAD GOFF, WE'VE HAD CUNLIFFE. NONE OF THOSE, UNDER MMP, WAS EVER THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, EXCEPTING THAT TWO OLD PARTIES REFUSE TO CHANGE AND ACKNOWLEDGE THE CHANCE SINCE FIRST PAST THE POST TO MMP. SO YOU FEEL THAT DAVID CUNLIFFE WASN'T LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION WHEN YOU WERE THERE? DO YOU FEEL THAT ANDREW LITTLE ISN'T LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION NOW? WHY DID I THINK YOU WERE GOING TO ASK THAT QUESTION? THE REALITY IS WE DON'T REGARD THERE AS BEING A CONSTITUTIONAL POSITION WHERE IT'S NOT A JACK-UP CALLED THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION. ANDREW LITTLE IS THE LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY. I LEAD A PARTY CALLED NZ FIRST. NZ FIRST IS THE PARTY WITH THE SWING-SHIFT CHANGE IN MIND FOR 2017. ON THAT SCENARIO, DO YOU THINK YOU COULD BE PRIME MINISTER? WELL, YOU DON'T PREDICATE YOUR FUTURE ` IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A FUTURE IN POLITICS ` ON WHAT YOU WANT. BUT IN THE SCENARIO WHERE YOU WERE THE SMALLER PARTY, PERHAPS, IN A GOVERNMENT IN SOME FORM, DOES THE PRIME MINISTER HAVE TO COME FROM THE BIGGEST PARTY? YOU KNOW, IN 1932 THE PRIME MINISTER CAME FROM THE SECOND BIGGEST PARTY IN THE COALITION. THAT'S WHY FORBES BECAME THE PRIME MINISTER OF THIS COUNTRY. SO THE PRIME MINISTER COULD AGAIN COME FROM THE SECOND BIGGEST PARTY? I'M SAYING THERE IS A PRECEDENT, YES. I'M JUST REMINDING PEOPLE OF THE HISTORY. AND THAT WAS BEFORE MMP. SO IS THAT SOMETHING YOU'D LIKE TO DO? I MEAN, I'M NOT... IS THAT SOMETHING YOU'D LIKE TO DO? I'LL TELL YOU WHAT EVERYONE IN NZ FIRST IS FOCUSED ON ` ME, MY CAUCUS, EVERYONE IN THE WHOLE TEAM ` AND THAT IS TO MASSIVELY GROW OUR VOTE BY USING NEW SYSTEMS AND THE BEST TECHNOLOGY POSSIBLE IN 2017. YOU'RE ENTITLED TO DO THAT. BUT MY QUESTION WAS` AND WE WORRY ABOUT THAT THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION. YOU DON'T GET MY POINT. IN A LONG CAREER, WHEN HAVE I EVER RUN FOR THAT SORT OF POSITION? NOT ONCE. I'VE SEEN ALL SORTS OF PEOPLE WITH HIGH AMBITIONS, MOST FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE, MOST NEVER MAKING IT, WHAT ABOUT SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WHERE YOU SHARED BEING PRIME MINISTER? SAY IT WAS A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT; SAY IT WAS A LABOUR-LED GOVERNMENT. WOULD YOU SHARE BEING PRIME MINISTER? I'M NOT GOING TO BE ANSWERING THOSE QUESTIONS, BECAUSE IT'S IMMATERIAL UNLESS WE GET THE KIND OF SIGN-UP AND SUPPORT THAT WE ARE SEEKING IN 2017. BUT IT SOUNDS TO ME LIKE IF YOU DO, YOU WOULD DO THAT. YOU WOULD SHARE THAT ROLE OF PRIME MINISTER. GIVEN THAT I HAVEN'T ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION, HOW DOES ANYTHING SOUND TO YOU IN THAT CONTEXT? I'M NOT BEING EVASIVE. IN A LONG TIME OF MMP, FOR THE LAST 22 YEARS, I'VE TOLD YOU JOURNALISTS YEAR AFTER YEAR EVERY ELECTION YEAR THAT WE ARE GOING TO DECIDE WHEN THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN. AND I KEEP ON GETTING THE KICK-BACK FROM THE MEDIA SAYING, 'YOU'VE GOT TO DECIDE NOW.' NO. THE PEOPLE MUST DECIDE FIRST. IT'S CALLED DEMOCRACY. YES. AND I'M ASKING YOU ONE LAST TIME TO RULE OUT WANTING TO SHARE THE ROLE OF PRIME MINISTER ONE DAY. THAT'S A VERY ADROIT WAY OF ASKING THE SAME QUESTION. AND AS I SAID AT THE BEGINNING, THE PEOPLE WILL DECIDE THE NUMBERS WE HAVE IN 2017, AND EVERYTHING'S ACADEMIC UNTIL THAT HAPPENS. SO YOU WON'T RULE IT OUT. WINSTON PETERS, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME. > THANK YOU. (CHUCKLES) UNBELIEVABLE. WELL, LABOUR ISN'T THE ONLY PARTY TO HAVE CHANGED LEADERS IN THE LAST YEAR. POLITICAL NOVICE JAMES SHAW LEAPT OVER MORE EXPERIENCED GREEN MPS TO REPLACE RUSSEL NORMAN AS CO-LEADER IN MAY. HIS GOAL? TO DOUBLE THE PARTY'S MEMBERSHIP AND GET MORE GREEN PARLIAMENTARIANS. AND JAMES SHAW JOINS ME NOW. GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING. < WHAT'S THE INFLATION RATE, MR SHAW? UH, THIS QUARTER IT'S 0.3%. < I WAS JUST KIDDING, BUT, YES, 0.4%. 0.4%, YEAH. 3% ANNUALLY. YOU HAVE HEARD JUST THEN FROM WINSTON PETERS, REFUSING TO RULE OUT BEING PRIME MINISTER IN A COALITION. WHERE WOULD THAT LEAVE THE GREENS IF HE WAS? I THINK THAT'S A FANTASTIC IDEA, BUT IT'S JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. I CAN'T IMAGINE A WORLD IN WHICH WINSTON PETERS BECOMES PRIME MINISTER. OK, WELL, COULD YOU BE PART OF A COALITION THAT HAD WINSTON PETERS AS PRIME MINISTER? WELL, AGAIN, IT'S SUCH AN INCONCEIVABLY HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION, I` HE DIDN'T RULE IT OUT, THOUGH. HE DIDN'T RULE IT OUT, YOU KNOW. YEAH, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT NZ FIRST'S POLLING, GENERALLY WHAT HAPPENS IN GOVERNMENTS IS THAT THE LEADER OF THE LARGEST PARTY IN THE COALITION BECOMES THE PRIME MINISTER, AND SO THEY WOULD HAVE TO GO FROM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5% AND 8% IN THE POLLS TO SOMETHING LIKE 40% IN THE POLLS FOR THAT TO BE A REALISTIC PROPOSITION. SO I JUST THINK IT'S A SILLY QUESTION, TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH. OK, WELL, HOW AWKWARD IS IT FOR THE GREENS THAT YOUR POTENTIAL PARTNERS IN PARLIAMENT ` LABOUR AND NZ FIRST IT SEEMS TO SUIT THEM TO MARGINALISE YOU? THAT'S JUST PART OF THE PRE-ELECTION GAME, RIGHT. WE WANT TO BE A STRONG AND SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT, AND WE'RE WORKING HELL FOR LEATHER ON EXACTLY THAT PROPOSITION. SO WE'VE GOT TO WAIT UNTIL THE ELECTION AND SEE WHAT THE VOTERS HAVE TO SAY IN TERMS OF THE NUMBERS THAT WE GET, AND THEN WE'LL WORK OUT THE SEATS AROUND THE TABLE. BUT IT'S GOT TO BE ESPECIALLY AWKWARD FOR THE GREENS. THOSE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT ARE YOUR POTENTIAL PARTNERS, AND THEY LOVE TO PUSH BACK FROM YOU. LOOK, EVERY PARTY IS A POTENTIAL PARTNER TO EVERY OTHER PARTY IN PARLIAMENT, AND SO EVERYBODY'S JOCKEYING FOR POSITION OVER THE COURSE OF THE THREE YEARS. SO, YOU KNOW, I JUST THINK THAT'S JUST PART OF THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. YOU JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT. BUT I THOUGHT ACT AND NATIONAL WEREN'T POSSIBLE PARTNERS FOR YOU, SO THERE'S ONLY THOSE TWO. YEAH, NO, BUT WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL COALITIONS, RIGHT, YOU'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, ONE THAT'S BROADLY CENTRE-RIGHT, YOU'VE GOT ONE THAT BROADLY CENTRE-LEFT ` THERE'S A WHOLE LOT OF POSITIONING THAT GOES ON BETWEEN ALL OF THOSE PARTIES BEFORE THE ELECTION. VOTERS EXPECT US TO COMPETE LIKE CRAZY FOR THEIR VOTE DURING THE COURSE OF THE ELECTION AND THEN TO WORK IT OUT AND SAY, 'WELL, YOU KNOW, WHO ARE YOU GOING TO WORK WITH FOR THE SAKE OF THE COUNTRY AFTERWARDS?' BUT NATIONAL, I SUPPOSE, FOSTERS RELATIONSHIPS AND IS NICE TO THE ONES ON THEIR SIDE; IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE THE CASE WITH YOU AND THE GREENS AND NZ FIRST. WELL, I WOULD SAY THAT OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH LABOUR IS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED AT THE MOMENT. LABOUR UNDER ANDREW LITTLE HAS, I THINK, REALLY TURNED A CORNER. THEY'RE DOING THE HARD YARDS THAT PERHAPS THEY OUGHT TO HAVE BEEN DOING OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST SIX YEARS. THE MOOD IN LABOUR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED. THE FUTURE OF WORK COMMISSION THAT THEY'RE LEADING HAS GOT, FROM WHAT I CAN SEE, SOME REALLY CREATIVE AND INTERESTING POLICY IDEAS. WE'VE GOT A CONSTRUCTIVE WORKING RELATIONSHIP, AND WE'VE BEEN WORKING TOGETHER ON THINGS LIKE THE SAUDI SHEEP DEAL AND, YOU KNOW, A FEW OTHER THINGS AS WELL, SO STARTING TO COLLABORATE IN THE HOUSE. DO YOU THINK YOU WILL ACHIEVE A JOINED-UP POLICY PRESENTATION WITH LABOUR? WELL, WE HAVEN'T HAD THAT CONVERSATION WITH THEM YET, BUT I THINK GOING INTO 2017, VOTERS ARE LOOKING FOR A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE GOVERNMENT. SO IS IT SOMETHING YOU WANT, EVEN IF YOU HAVEN'T HAD A CONVERSATION WITH THEM YET? IS IT SOMETHING YOU WANT? I THINK THAT IN GENERAL, VOTERS ARE LOOKING FOR A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE GOVERNMENT, AND SO WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO DO IS TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE PEOPLE WITH WHAT THEY NEED IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO VOTE FOR US. SO THAT IS ONE OF THE CONVERSATIONS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'LL BE FLOATING AT SOME POINT DOWN THE LINE. SO IT IS SOMETHING YOU'D LIKE TO ACHIEVE? I WOULD IMAGINE THAT IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO HAVE, IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE GOVERNMENT, TO HAVE SOME KIND OF, YOU KNOW, SET OUT YOUR STABLE IN ADVANCE. OKAY. WELL, YOUR RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN EXEMPTED FARMERS FROM THE PROPOSED LEVIES FOR THE FIRST FIVE YEARS. IS THAT PART OF THE GREENS TRYING TO BROADEN THEIR APPEAL? YEAH, SO ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT THAT IS, IN NZ WE KEEP SAYING, OR YOU KEEP HEARING THE MYTH THAT WE CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, FARMING, YOU KNOW, HAS SUCH A HIGH RATE OF EMISSIONS. AND WHAT WE WERE TRYING TO SHOW WITH THAT PAPER IS ACTUALLY, AGRICULTURE DOES NOT HAVE TO BE THE BIG BLOCK THAT THE GOVERNMENT KEEPS SAYING IT IS; THAT ACTUALLY, YOU CAN ACHIEVE REALLY AMBITIOUS AND SIGNIFICANT EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS TARGETS BY THE YEAR 2030, EVEN BY, YOU KNOW, GIVING AGRICULTURE A FIVE-YEAR WINDOW AND A LOW TARGET THEMSELVES. IT DOES MAKE EVERYTHING ELSE WORK HARDER, AND WE HAVE TO HAVE A CONVERSATION ABOUT THAT, BUT YOU CAN ACTUALLY SAY, 'LOOK, IT DOESN'T NEED TO BE THE BLOCK THAT EVERYBODY SAYS IT IS.' BECAUSE JUST LAST YEAR, RUSSEL NORMAN SAID, 'I WOULD ARGUE THAT IT'S ESSENTIAL TO PUT A PRICE ON AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS,' SO HAVE YOU SHIFTED FROM THAT? HAVE YOU MOVED FOR THE SAKE OF PRAGMATISM? NO, ACTUALLY, WE ARE SAYING THAT THERE WILL BE A PRICE ON AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS, ALONG WITH EVERY OTHER SECTOR, JUST NOT IMMEDIATELY, THAT'S RIGHT. BUT WAS THAT A PRAGMATIC MOVE, THOUGH? YES, ABSOLUTELY, IT WAS A PRAGMATIC MOVE. I MEAN, AGRICULTURE IS USED AS A SORT OF A FOOTBALL, A POLITICAL FOOTBALL, TO SAY, 'WELL, WE CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, EMISSIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE ECONOMY 'BECAUSE OF AGRICULTURE,' AND WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS, ACTUALLY, THAT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THAT WAY. YOU CAN ACTUALLY DO BETTER THAN THAT, EVEN IF YOU GIVE A CONCESSION TO AGRICULTURE FOR THE FIRST FIVE YEARS. WHEN WE HAD YOU ON, YOU PLEDGED TO DOUBLE THE GREENS' MEMBERSHIP THIS YEAR. ARE YOU ON TRACK TO DO THAT? I THINK YOU WERE AROUND 6000 AT THE TIME YOU SAID THAT. HOW ARE YOU GOING? WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING PRETTY WELL. WE HAD A MEMBERSHIP DRIVE RECENTLY, AND WE GOT SOMETHING LIKE 400 NEW MEMBERS IN THE SPACE OF A WEEK. NOW, WE'RE NOT GOING TO DO THAT EVERY WEEK, BUT IT DOES MEAN THAT I THINK THAT WE'LL BE ABLE TO HIT THAT. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH, JAMES SHAW, GREENS CO-LEADER, FOR JOINING US THIS MORNING. YOU'RE WELCOME. THANKS. WELL, WE'VE HEARD FROM THE FOUR LARGEST POLLING PARTIES THIS MORNING, BUT WE THOUGHT WE'D ALSO SQUEEZE IN A FEW MINUTES WITH THE MP DUBBED PARLIAMENT'S MOST IMPROVED PLAYER. ACT LEADER DAVID SEYMOUR IS WITH ME IN THE STUDIO. GOOD MORNING, MR SEYMOUR. GOOD MORNING. OR SHOULD THAT BE COQ-A-DOODLE-DOO? WELL, GOOD MORNING EITHER WAY. HOWEVER YOU LIKE IT. (CHUCKLES) DAVID SEYMOUR, YOU KNOW, YOU'RE HERE AS A WILD CARD, BUT IT HAS BEEN A HELL OF A YEAR FOR YOU, I WILL ADMIT THAT. BUT LET'S FACE IT ` ACT'S BEEN A COP CASE; EPSOM'S BEEN A JOKE. HOW DID YOU FIX IT ALL UP? WELL, LOOK, LET'S JUST SAY WE STARTED WITH A DEFENSIVE 5M SCRUM, AND NOW WE'RE PROBABLY UP TO HAVING A 22 DROP OUT. WE'VE GOT A LOT OF WORK TO DO FROM WHERE WE'VE COME FROM, BUT I JUST TRY TO SHOW UP EVERY DAY AND SHOW THAT I CAN ACTUALLY BE A USEFUL POLITICIAN THAT REPRESENTS VOTERS' VIEWS, AND HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS, THAT WILL ACTUALLY GROW ACT'S SUPPORT WHILE I'M A GOOD MP IN EPSOM AND THEY WILL RE-ELECT ME TOO. NOW, RATHER POPULOUS VIEWS, REALLY, BECAUSE THE RED PEAK, PUBS OPENING FOR THE FOOTY, THESE AREN'T CORE ACT POLICIES. I MEAN, IT'S POPULIST HEADLINE HUNTING, ISN'T IT? IT'S GETTING YOURSELF ON THE NEWS. WELL, THAT'S WHAT YOUR CHANNEL CHOOSES TO COVER. HOWEVER, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN MY DAILY WORK IS ACTUALLY PARTNERSHIP SCHOOLS, KURA HOURUA. WE'RE GOING TO OPEN MORE OF THOSE. I VISIT THOSE SCHOOLS, AND I SEE THEM INNOVATING AND ACTUALLY ALLOWING KIDS TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES TO GET SKILLS, QUALIFICATIONS, JOBS, CAREERS AND SO ON. THAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING. AND WE'RE ACHIEVING MORE OF ROGER DOUGLAS' ORIGINAL ACT VISION WITH PARTNERSHIP SCHOOLS THAN ACT EVER ACHIEVED, AND I'M VERY PROUD OF THAT. SURE, AND SO WILL SUE RODGER. NOW, HERE IS A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO FOR YOU ABOUT THESE PUBS. SOMEONE GOES TO THE PUBS AND SELLS THEM EXTRA BOOZE. THERE'S SOME BIG PROBLEM, SOMETHING BAD HAPPENS ` WILL YOU TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THAT? NO, I WON'T, BECAUSE YOUR QUESTION ASSUMES THAT THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYBODY, AND THAT IF SOMEBODY DOES SOMETHING STUPID, IT'S BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT DIDN'T MAKE A RULE TO STOP THEM. MY VIEW IS THAT NZERS ARE FREE AND RESPONSIBLE PEOPLE ON THE WHOLE, AND WE SHOULDN'T CONSTANTLY BE PUNISHED FOR THE MISDEMEANOURS OF THE MINORITY. HAVING SAID THAT, I HOPE THAT IT'S GOING TO BE A JOYOUS FESTIVAL AND NZERS WILL SHOW THAT THE NANNY-STATERS AND THE NAYSAYERS WERE WRONG. WE CAN ENJOY OURSELVES RESPONSIBLY. I SAW THE EDINBURGH PUB JUST UP THE ROAD OPENING EARLIER. IT'S FANTASTIC. SURE. YOU'RE UNDER-SECRETARY NOW. DO YOU WANT TO BE A MINISTER THIS TERM? BECAUSE JOHN KEY'S KIND OF OFFERED THAT. WOULD YOU TAKE THAT UP? DO YOU WANT TO BE A MINISTER THIS TERM? IN A SENSE, IT'S SOMETHING, IF YOU GET OFFERED, YOU CAN'T REALLY REFUSE. < YOU CAN. BUT I` WELL, I'M NOT SURE WHAT THE CONVENTION IS. I ENJOY BEING AN UNDER-SECRETARY, BECAUSE IT ALLOWS ME TO GET MY HANDS ON THE TOOLS OF PARTNERSHIP SCHOOLS AND REGULAR` SO IF HE OFFERS YOU BEING A MINISTER, YOU WON'T REFUSE IT? IT'D BE DIFFICULT TO REFUSE. I UNDERSTAND THAT'S THE CONVENTION. ALL RIGHT. NOW, WHERE IN YOUR MIND ` AND COMING BACK TO THAT DROP-GOAL, THAT 22M DROP-GOAL YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT ` WHERE IS NATIONAL WEAK? WHERE CAN ACT TAKE VOTES OFF NATIONAL? YOU SAW STEVEN JOYCE THIS MORNING DUCKING AND DIVING AROUND THE ECONOMIC FIGURES, AND I THINK THAT THIS GOVERNMENT ACTUALLY NEEDS TO BE MORE ROBUST ON THE ECONOMY. I THINK THAT ACT CAN HELP NATIONAL. SO WHY CAN'T WE DROP COMPANY TAXES WHEN WE HAVE THE HIGHEST TAXES AND CAPITAL IN THE OECD ALMOST? WHERE HAS RMA REFORM GONE? IT'S MISSING IN ACTION. WHAT ABOUT INFRASTRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TOP HALF OF THE NORTH ISLAND? WHAT ABOUT INDEXING TAX RATES TO INFLATION FOR FAMILIES WHO ARE PAYING MORE AND MORE EVERY YEAR AS THEY STEALTHILY CREEP INTO HIGHER TAX BRACKETS? BUT ALSO FOR YOUNGER GENERATIONS. JOHN KEY SAID HE'S NOT GOING TO MOVE ON SUPER. WELL, I'M SORRY, BUT FOR OUR GENERATION, YOU'RE LOOKING AT FIVE WORKERS PER RETIREE NOW; TWO WORKERS PER RETIREE BY THE TIME CURRENT UNIVERSITY STUDENTS RETIRE. YOU THINK THERE'S A GENUINE WEAKNESS AROUND SUPERANNUATION? I BELIEVE THAT FOR OUR GENERATION, THERE CERTAINLY IS. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THAT'S ALL WE'VE GOT TIME FOR. OH, WELL, THANK YOU. STICK AROUND, AND WE'LL BE BACK WITH OUR ALL-STAR PANEL AFTER THE BREAK ` GUYON ESPINER AND TRACY WATKINS IN JUST A MOMENT. WELCOME BACK. WELL, IT'S A POWERHOUSE POLITICAL PANEL FOR YOU TODAY ` PADDY, OF COURSE, FAIRFAX POLITICAL EDITOR TRACY WATKINS, AND MORNING REPORT PRESENTER AND ONE-TIME POLITICAL EDITOR HIMSELF, GUYON ESPINER. GOOD MORNING TO EVERYBODY. CAN I START WITH YOU, TRACY AND GUYON? YOU'VE BOTH SEEN THIRD-TERM GOVERNMENTS BEFORE, SO HOW IS THIS ONE TRACKING? I THINK IT'S TRACKING PRETTY WELL IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS. 47% FOR NATIONAL IS EXTRAORDINARY AT THAT POINT. I THINK PADDY RAISED A GOOD POINT IN HIS INTERVIEW WITH ANDREW LITTLE THAT, YOU KNOW, THE WHEELS HAVE FALLEN OFF IN MANY RESPECTS, BUT THEY KEEP LISTENING. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE REFUGEE ISSUE, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY GOT IT WRONG. THEY WERE SEEN AS HEARTLESS AND OUT OF TOUCH. THEY CHANGED THEIR MINDS. YOU LOOK AT LOCHINVER ` NO DOUBT A POLITICAL DECISION, BUT THEY'RE LISTENING AND THEY CHANGED THEIR MINDS, WHICH IS WHY THEY'RE STILL ABLE, IN MY VIEW, TO COMMAND THOSE SORTS OF LEVELS OF SUPPORT IN THE POLLS. SO YEAH, A LOT OF THINGS ARE GOING WRONG. THERE'S BEEN SOME MINISTERS WHO'VE HAD SOME DISASTROUS MOMENTS. BUT THEY ARE STILL LISTENING AT THIS POINT. CAN YOU GET AWAY WITH CALLING IT LISTENING, THOUGH, OR IS IT U-TURNING? I DON'T THINK PEOPLE EVEN THINK ABOUT U-TURNS ANY MORE. I MEAN, BASICALLY IT IS ABOUT RESPONDING TO PUBLIC OPINION, AND I THINK IT'S AN EXTRAORDINARY THIRD-TERM GOVERNMENT. AT THIS TIME IN A CYCLE, WE'RE OFTEN STARTING TO TALK ABOUT 'IS THE LEADER GOING TO BE ROLLED?' 'WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO TO GET THEIR POLL RATINGS UP?' 47% ` IF THAT'S THE NUMBERS IN THE LATEST POLL, THAT IS QUITE INCREDIBLE. IT REALLY IS. YOU DO HAVE TO SAY ` YOU SAID IT, PADDY ` THAT BOND BETWEEN JOHN KEY AND THE VOTERS JUST DOESN'T SEEM TO BE` YOU CAN'T SHAKE IT, REALLY. IT'S QUITE EXTRAORDINARY. I MEAN, I THINK THEY'VE MADE AN ART FORM OUT OF THE U-TURN, AND THE REALITY IS THAT THE PUBLIC DOESN'T REALLY CARE IF THEY DO A U-TURN IF THEY GET WHAT THEY WANT. AND IN FACT, IT'S ALMOST LIKE THIS IS A GOVERNMENT OF MERCENARIES. THEY WILL DO WHAT IS EVER NEEDED TO KEEP THEMSELVES ON THOSE HIGH POLL RATINGS. BECAUSE THEY LOVE THE POLLS. THEY LOVE GIVING PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT, AND THAT IS ACTUALLY WHAT ANDREW LITTLE IS REALLY UP AGAINST, IS THAT NATIONAL WILL OBVIOUSLY ` LOCHINVER SYMBOLISES THIS ` AT ITS ABSOLUTE HEIGHT, THEY'RE PREPARED TO TURN DOWN AN $88 MILLION FARM TO BE ABLE TO STAY ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF PUBLIC OPINION. THEY'LL DO ANYTHING. YEAH, BUT DON'T YOU RISK LOOKING LIKE YOU DON'T STAND FOR ANYTHING? BECAUSE THERE HE WAS ON THE NATION, STEVEN JOYCE, ACCUSING LABOUR OF SERVING UP XENOPHOBIA FOR BREAKFAST WHEN THEY SAID THAT THEY WOULDN'T GO AHEAD WITH LOCHINVER. I AGREE WITH YOU, AND I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT. JOURNALISTS LOVE IT ` 'OH, YOU SAID THIS AT THIS POINT, 'AND NOW YOU'RE SAYING THIS. WE'VE CAUGHT YOU OUT.' AND THE PUBLIC GOES, 'OH, WELL, THEY CHANGED THEIR MINDS ANYWAY.' I TELL YOU WHERE I THINK A REAL DANGER POINT WHERE IDEOLOGY IS GETTING IN THE WAY FOR NATIONAL ` AND THAT'S THE INTRODUCTION OF PRIVATISATION INTO SOCIAL POLICY. IT HASN'T WORKED; IT'S BEEN A DISASTER WITH THE PRISONS. THEIR SOCIAL HOUSING, IN MY VIEW, HAS BEEN DREADFUL. IT WAS LAUNCHED IN 2010; THEY'VE GOT NOWHERE. YOU'VE GOT SERCO AND ANOTHER AUSTRALIAN OUTFIT ` I THINK YOU GUYS BROKE THAT STORY ON THE NATION ` SNIFFING AROUND, AND I THINK THAT'S BEEN A DISASTER. I THINK THAT'S A REAL AREA WHERE THEY HAVE TO BE CAREFUL. THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT SOCIAL BONDS AS WELL. I THINK THE IDEOLOGY TO WANT TO GET PRIVATISATION INTO SOCIAL POLICY, IN MY VIEW, COULD BE AN AREA WHERE THEY TRIP UP. IT'S FASCINATING THAT YOU PICK THAT UP, BECAUSE THAT IS ACTUALLY THE ONLY AREA WHERE THEY SEEM IDEOLOGICALLY DRIVEN, AND IT'S ACTUALLY FULL OF PROBLEMS FOR THEM AS WELL. BUT ALSO, THEY HAVE TO DELIVER SOMETHING TO THAT CORE CONSTITUENCY, THOUGH, TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE DELIVERING ON SOME OF THE CORE NATIONAL IDEOLOGY, AND I GUESS THAT'S THE DILEMMA THEY'VE GOT. THEY'VE GOT THREE TERMS ON; THEY HAVE TO HAVE SOME LEGACY THAT MARKS IT OUT ` 'THIS IS NATIONAL'S LEGACY, IT'S IDEOLOGY,' IT'S STICKING TO ITS KNITTING IN THAT RESPECT. BECAUSE IT ISN'T GOING TO BE THE FLAG, IS IT? CHUCKLES: NO. (LAUGHS) WELL, THEN` WHAT PUB'S OPEN EARLY TODAY? SO WE'VE GOT ANDREW LITTLE, THERE, AND HE'S HAVING TO BATTLE THIS. THE FUNDAMENTAL THING FOR THEM IS THAT THEIR POLLS ARE STARK. YEAH. AND THE FUNNY WITH ANDREW LITTLE THERE IS HE'S JUST OPENLY ADMITTING THAT HE HAS GOT NO IDEAS THIS YEAR. HE HAS GOT NOTHING. REALLY TOUGH IN THE FIRST YEAR WHEN YOU'RE IN OPPOSITION, BECAUSE NO ONE ` AND WE ALL KNOW THIS ` NO OPPOSITION LEADER'S GOING TO COME OUT WITH CONCRETE POLICIES IN THAT FIRST YEAR. THAT'S 2017 TIME, ACTUALLY, AND IT'S REALLY TOUGH. THEY SAY IT'S HARD BEING OPPOSITION LEADER ` YOU COME ON A SHOW LIKE THIS, YOU'VE GOT PADDY GOWER SAYING, 'GIVE ME ONE POLICY THAT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT,' AND YOU ACTUALLY REALLY CAN'T GRAB HOLD OF ONE, EXCEPT ONE THAT WAS PUT UP BY DAVID SHEARER. AND IT'S A REAL DEAD ZONE FOR THEM POLITICALLY IN TERMS OF RELEASING POLICY. NOBODY REMEMBERS IT THREE YEARS DOWN THE TRACK, AND THEN YOU DO RELEASE IT WHEN THE ELECTION COMES AROUND, AND EVERYONE SAYS, 'YOU'VE GOT NO NEW IDEAS. YOU RELEASED THAT TWO YEARS AGO.' AND THE OTHER THING THESE GUYS ARE GONNA FIND ` AND WE COME BACK TO THIS MAIN POINT ABOUT WHY NATIONAL IS SO SUCCESSFUL ` IF THEY COME UP WITH ANYTHING GOOD, NATIONAL'S JUST GONNA FIND A WAY TO TAKE IT, PINCH IT, CHANGE IT SLIGHTLY AND USE IT AS THEIR OWN. HOW LONG REALISTICALLY CAN THEY WAIT? BECAUSE THEY KEEP TELLING US THEY'RE WORKING ON THIS BEHIND CLOSED DOORS, BUT WE NEVER SEE ANYTHING. I THINK THEY'LL START ROLLING OUT SOME POLICIES, DRIBBLING THEM OUT. BUT WHEN YOU THINK BACK TO NATIONAL'S LAST YEAR IN OPPOSITION, THEY DID WAIT UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE ELECTION BEFORE THEY STARTED ROLLING OUT SUBSTANTIVE POLICY, AND THE SAME CLAMOUR WAS HITTING THEM ` 'WHERE'S YOUR POLICY?' ` AND THEY JUST IGNORED IT. TOTALLY AGREE, AND I THINK TRACY'S WRITTEN ABOUT THIS TODAY IN THE DOMINION POST `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` THE NUMBERS HAVE TO WORK OUT. THAT'S THE KEY THING. AND THE NUMBERS AT THE MOMENT DON'T WORK OUT. SO I AGREE WITH PADDY. LABOUR NEEDS TO GRAB MORE MIDDLE-GROUND VOTERS OFF NATIONAL TO EDGE UP TOWARDS THE LATE 30S. IF YOU'RE NOT NORTH OF 37, IN MY VIEW, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT. WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT WINSTON PETERS AND THE PROSPECT OF HIM BEING PRIME MINISTER. YOU TRIED YOUR BEST, PADDY, TO GET A STRAIGHT ANSWER THERE. PIPE DREAM, IS IT? I THINK IT WAS A YES. ALL LAUGH WELL, IT WAS NOT RULING IT OUT. YEAH, I MEAN, WELL, GEORGE FORBES DID IT. GEORGE FORBES DID IT, SO WHY CAN'T HE? HE HAD THE DATE ` 1932 ` OFF THE TOP OF HIS HEAD. WHEN THIS FIRST CAME UP, I THOUGHT IT WAS A THORNDON DINNER PARTY TYPE CONVERSATION. WINSTON SHARES THE ROLE OF PRIME MINISTER OR WHATEVER. BUT I THINK IF IT IS A KIND OF KING-MAKER THING, HE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A CRACK AT` YOU KNOW WHAT I THINK ANDREW LITTLE SHOULD'VE DONE, AND I THINK IT WAS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH YOU A FEW WEEKS AGO, LISA ` TO RULE THAT OUT. HE'S LEFT THAT ON THE TABLE. WHAT DO YOU THINK, TRACY? WELL, HE DID TRY IT BEFORE, I THINK, IN 1996 WITH THE COALITION NEGOTIATIONS. I THINK THAT WAS ONE OF THE STICKING POINTS IN HIS DISCUSSIONS WITH LABOUR AND NATIONAL. WELL, HIS PEOPLE DID, I THINK, HE WOULD ARGUE. AND IT DIDN'T FLY. AND I DON'T THINK` WELL, HE WOULD HAVE TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NUMBERS THAN HE'S GONNA GET AT THE MOMENT. OK, WE'VE GOT A LITTLE BIT OF TIME LEFT. I WANT FROM ALL OF YOU YOUR WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A NUTSHELL SO FAR WITH THE YEAR. WELL, I'M GOING TO HAVE SAY JOHN KEY. WINNER OR LOSER? WINNER. WINNER. DESPITE EVERYTHING. THIRD TERM, AND HE'S STILL MASSIVELY POPULAR, AND HIS GOVERNMENT IS STILL HUGELY POPULAR. THAT'S JUST EXTRAORDINARY GIVEN EVERYTHING THAT'S BEEN THROWN AT THEM AND WHERE THE ECONOMY IS AT THE MOMENT AND EVERYTHING. YEAH, BILL AND JOHN KEY IN TERMS OF WINNERS. I THINK ANDREW LITTLE GRINDING AWAY. HE'S DOING ALL RIGHT. WINSTON PETERS WINNING NORTHLAND ` EXTRAORDINARY. AND, LOOK, DAVID SEYMOUR. HE'S GRABBED LITTLE BITS HERE AND THERE, AND HE'S ACTUALLY BUSTED HIS WAY INTO THE LIMELIGHT AND MADE HIMSELF... GOT SOME OXYGEN. AND THAT'S DIFFICULT TO DO. I'D PICK THOSE GUYS AS WINNERS. IN TERMS OF LOSERS, THERE'S BEEN SOME MINISTERS IN REAL TROUBLE. SAM LOTU-IIGA ` HE'S NOT UP TO IT IN MY VIEW. YOU'VE GOT 10 SECONDS, PADDY. GIVE US YOURS. WINNER ` WINSTON PETERS. THAT WAS EXTRAORDINARY WHAT HE DID IN NORTHLAND UP THERE. JOHN KEY AS WELL FOR BEING SO HIGH. AND ANDREW LITTLE ACTUALLY DESERVES SOME CREDIT FOR STABILISING LABOUR. AS FOR LOSERS ` SAM LOTU-IIGA AS WELL. I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THEY CAN HANG WITH HIM THERE AS CORRECTIONS MINISTER. WE'LL LEAVE IT THERE. WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK, BUT BE BACK IN A MOMENT WITH A JUMP ON NEXT WEEK'S NEWS. WELCOME BACK. YOU'RE WITH THE NATION, AND WE'RE TALKING TO OUR ALL-STAR PANEL THIS MORNING, A YEAR ON FROM THE ELECTION. PADDY, YOU WERE TALKING TO ANDREW LITTLE THERE. HE WAS TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE WANTING VALUES-DRIVEN LEADERSHIP, SOMEONE WITH A MORAL COMPASS. IS THAT ACTUALLY WHAT PEOPLE WANT, OR DO THEY WANT PRAGMATISM? WELL, THE NATIONAL PARTY, OR JOHN KEY, HAS GOT A COMPASS, AND IT MOVES WITH PUBLIC OPINION. WHAT'S DIFFERENT BETWEEN THAT COMPASS AND A MORAL-DRIVEN ONE IF PEOPLE GET WHAT THEY WANT? THEY DON'T CARE IF THE COMPASS IS A MORAL ONE OR A POLL-DRIVEN ONE, AS LONG AS THEY'RE GETTING WHAT THEY WANT. AND I THINK THAT IS THE KEY TO THE SUCCESS OF THIS GOVERNMENT. MM. WELL, YOU HEARD FROM STEVEN JOYCE AS WELL. HE BASICALLY CHALLENGED EVERY FIGURE I PUT TO HIM AND SAID, YOU KNOW, 'OH, NO, NO.' WE WERE USING RESERVE BANK FIGURES, ANZ FIGURES THERE. IS HE READING FROM A DIFFERENT ECONOMIC BOOK? I THINK HE NEEDS TO BE A BIT MORE UPFRONT WITH PEOPLE, AND I THINK THEY ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THAT. THEY KNOW THAT THE WORLDWIDE ECONOMY HAS BEEN TURNING DOWN. THEY KNOW THERE ARE PROBLEMS IN CHINA. THEY KNOW THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH THE DAIRY INDUSTRY. I THINK THAT HE'S BEING DISINGENUOUS AND NOT BEING UPFRONT WITH NZERS NOT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THOSE THINGS. SURE, HE CAN TALK UP THE OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY. WHEN YOU'RE TALKING TO GOVERNMENT MINISTERS, IT'S USUALLY ABOUT 20 SECONDS BEFORE THEY USE THE WORD KIWIFRUIT. THEY LOVE THE KIWIFRUIT INDUSTRY. YEAH. OR WINE INDUSTRY AND TOURISM. TOURISM. YEAH, DAIRY HAS STARTED PICKING UP AGAIN, SO IT'S NOT ALL BAD NEWS. AND WHEN YOU'VE GOT SOMEONE LIKE MALCOLM TURNBULL, ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS HE SAYS WHEN HE'S BEEN ELECTED PRIME MINISTER IS, I WANT TO FOLLOW NZ'S ECONOMIC PROGRAMME. YOU'RE DOING A LOT OF GOOD THINGS, YEAH, AND THEY DON'T NEED TO QUIBBLE WITH ALL THE NUMBERS ALL THE TIME. AND THE NUMBERS AREN'T THAT BAD. THE RESERVE BANK AND TREASURY PREDICTIONS FOR GROWTH ARE 2% ANNUALLY. A LOT OF COUNTRIES WOULD DIE FOR THAT. CANADA, FOR EXAMPLE, IS IN RECESSION RIGHT NOW. SO THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS AREN'T THAT BAD. I THINK HE NEEDS TO BE JUST A BIT MORE UPFRONT WITH IT AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YEAH, THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN TURNING DOWN. THE OTHER THING I FOUND REALLY INTERESTING IS WHEN I ASKED HIM FOR THE THING THAT THEY'D DONE BADLY OR THE HIT THEY'D TAKEN, HIS GO-TO PLACE WASN'T NECESSARILY NORTHLAND ` HE RAISED THE RMA. SO DID THEY LEARN ANYTHING FROM THAT, PADDY? FROM NORTHLAND, I THINK THEY LEARNED A LOT, BUT IT'S STUFF THAT THEY WON'T ADMIT IN PUBLIC, AND THAT IS STEVEN JOYCE AND CROSBY TEXTOR SHOULDN'T TRY AND CONTROL THE CAMPAIGN IN RURAL NZ FROM HEAD OFFICE IN AUCKLAND. THEY LEARNED LOTS OF THINGS FROM THAT, BUT THEY WON'T ADMIT IT IN PUBLIC. THEY GOT ABSOLUTELY BASHED AND OWNED UP IN THAT PLACE, AND STEVEN JOYCE ACTUALLY LOST SOME OF HIS REPUTATION AS A CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST. YEAH. IT'S ACTUALLY DAMAGING FOR STEVEN JOYCE QUITE BADLY, I THINK, IN TERMS OF HE HAD THAT MIDAS TOUCH TILL THEN. HE HAD RUN ONE SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN AFTER ANOTHER, AND THAT WAS HIS FIRST BIG FAILURE. AND THEY JUST MISREAD THAT ELECTORATE COMPLETELY. THAT BRIDGE BRIBE JUST WENT DOWN SO BADLY. AND, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THE THING ` YOU CAN LOOK AHEAD AT THE NEXT ELECTION. COULD IT BE LOST IN THE CAMPAIGN BY MISREADING THE ELECTORATE AGAIN WITH SOMETHING LIKE THAT? I MEAN, THAT'S HOW QUICKLY IT COULD TURN. I WANNA MOVE NOW TO LOCHINVER STATION. SO THAT SALE'S NOT GOING THROUGH. WE HAD A BUYER, A CHINESE BUYER, $88M THERE, AND MINISTERS HAVE TURNED IT DOWN. WHY DID THE MINISTERS TURN IT DOWN, DO YOU THINK, GUYON? POLITICS, PURE AND SIMPLE. I THINK IF THAT DECISION HAD BEEN BEFORE MINISTERS AT ANOTHER POINT IN THE GOVERNMENT'S TENURE, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN DEFINITELY APPROVED. I THINK THE QUOTE TO COME BACK TO IS JOHN KEY ` WE DON'T WANNA BE TENANTS IN OUR OWN LAND. AND I THINK THAT HAS HAUNTED HIM ON THIS DECISION, AND I THINK THAT IT WAS PURE POLITICS ON THIS ONE. THEY'VE TICKED OFF OTHER DECISIONS THAT ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS. THEY'VE SAID THAT THE GATE'S OPEN FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT, AND THEY'VE COME DOWN PURELY FOR POLITICAL REASONS. YEAH, WHERE'S THE CONSISTENCY IN THAT, THOUGH, TRACEY? BECAUSE HE WAS ON THIS VERY SHOW, ACCUSING LABOUR OF XENOPHOBIA. IT WAS IN RELATION TO LOCHINVER STATION, AND THEN THEY DO THE SAME THING. THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO CONSISTENCY, AND THEY DIDN'T FEEL ANY NEED FOR CONSISTENCY. THEY JUST WANTED TO GET THIS ONE OUT OF THE WAY. YOU KNOW, IT'S HIS OBJECTIVE DECISION, BUT EVERY OTHER DECISION HAS GONE THE OTHER WAY WHEN THEY'VE USED A SUBJECTIVE SET OF MEASURES. THIS WAS FAR TOO BIG A POLITICAL HOT POTATO TO APPROVE, BASICALLY. AND LABOUR WOULD HAVE WISHED THEY'D MADE THE OPPOSITE DECISION, IS THE BRUTAL TRUTH THERE. I MEAN, ANDREW LITTLE AND GRANT ROBERTSON CAN TALK ABOUT HYPOCRISY ` THEY'RE RIGHT, BUT THEY WISHED NATIONAL HAD MADE THE OTHER DECISION AND LET THIS SALE GO. AND LOOK, NATIONAL HAVE GIVEN THEMSELVES A GOLDEN LION IN THE FOREIGN INVESTMENT DEBATE FROM HERE TO ELECTION DAY. WHENEVER THEY ARE HAD UP ABOUT IT IN ANY DEBATE, ON ANY INTERVIEW, ON ANY STAGE, THEY CAN SAY, 'WE BLOCKED LOCHINVER.' AND PEOPLE CAN LOOK TO THAT. THEY HAVE ACTUALLY GIVEN JOHN KEY A GOLDEN LION. BUT IT HAS SOMETHING THAT COULD COME BACK TO BITE THEM ON THE BUTTS, BECAUSE THIS MEANS THAT STEVENSON GROUP DOESN'T HAVE THE MONEY TO INVEST IN THIS PROJECT THAT THEY WERE GOING TO OUT IN SOUTH AUCKLAND. TOTALLY RIGHT. POLITICS TRUMPS ECONOMICS. IN THEIR VIEW, I THINK YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. THAT WOULD'VE HAD ECONOMIC BENEFITS. I CAN'T REMEMBER HOW MANY JOBS` 2.3 BILLION JOBS OVER 15 YEARS. THAT'S HUGE NUMBERS. BUT AGAIN, IT'S POLITICS, AND THAT'S TRUMPED ECONOMICS. IT'S ACTUALLY A SPECIAL HOUSING AREA OUT THERE AS WELL. ONE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES TO GET MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING GOING, THAT WILL BE HELD UP, BECAUSE THEY WON'T HAVE THE MONEY FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE THERE. SO IT'S NOT JUST THE JOBS, IT'S ACTUALLY SOME HOUSES AS WELL. AND STEVENSON GROUP ` GOT TO FEEL FOR THEM. THIS IS A 100% KIWI COMPANY THAT HELPED BUILD AUCKLAND. IT HAS HELPED PUT IN THE MOTORWAYS HERE, AND THEY HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY STIFFED, BASICALLY, BY THE GOVERNMENT ON THIS. TRACY? WELL, I THINK THE BIG THING WILL BE WHAT THE PRICE` THE PRICE IS NOW GOING TO BE DISCOUNTED IF IT HAS TO BE A NEW ZEALAND BUYER, THEY TOOK IN $20 MILLION LESS. THAT WAS THE NEW ZEALAND OFFERS FOR THAT. STEVENSON GROUP HAVE REALLY HAD TO TAKE ONE HERE. RIGHT. BEFORE WE GO, MM, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FLAG. HAS RED PEAK PEAKED? ABSOLUTELY. (LAUGHS) IT'S ALWAYS BEEN MISCHIEVOUS. I WOULD'VE LIKED TO SEE IT ADDED IN THERE ` I DON'T LIKE THE FLAG MYSELF ` FOR A BIT OF FUN; SOME SORT OF REALITY TV WILDCARD. IF THEY ADD THAT FLAG IN, I HAVE STRONG OBJECTIONS. WHAT ABOUT THE ONES I LIKE THAT ARE IN THE 40? IT WOULD MAKE A MOCKERY OF THE PROCESS, WOULDN'T IT? TO HOLD THE CONSULTATION MEETINGS, HAVE AN EXPERT FLAG PANEL, AND THEN JUST GO, 'OH, LOOK, THERE'S 1% OF THE POPULATION ` 50,000 PEOPLE ` SIGNED AN ONLINE PETITION. 'LET'S PUT THIS ONE IN.' YOU CAN'T. LABOUR SUPPORTERS, ETC, THEY SET THIS ONE UP, AND THEY'RE SURPRISED AT HOW MUCH BACKING THEY'VE GOT. POLLS BY UMR, I THINK, SHOW THAT THERE'S NO SUPPORT FOR THE RED PEAK FLAG IN THE INITIAL STAGES. EVERYONE THOUGHT IT WAS A DOG. SO IT'S THE SOCIAL MEDIA. WE'LL LEAVE IT THERE. HERE'S OUR HEADS UP ON NEXT WEEK'S NEWS AGENDA. STAY TUNED LATER TODAY FOR THE LATEST 3 NEWS POLITICAL POLL WITH A SPECIAL EXTRA QUESTION ON THE FLAG; KIM DOT COM'S EXTRADITION CASE HEADS TO COURT TOMORROW; FONTERRA'S ANNUAL RESULT IS RELEASED ON THURSDAY; AND THE CHIEF NEGOTIATORS OF THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP WILL MEET IN ATLANTA NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THAT'S ALL FROM THIS WEEKEND. ONE THING I WOULD LIKE TO SAY, THOUGH, IS IT HAS BEEN GOOD TO HAVE MY OLD MATE GUYON ESPINER BACK ON THE BOX. GOOD TO SEE YOU, BUDDY. IT'S GREAT TO HAVE ALL OUR PANELLISTS HERE TODAY. ON BEHALF OF EVERYONE HERE ON THE NATION, THANKS FOR WATCHING AND DO HAVE A GREAT WEEK. AND GO THE ALL BLACKS. (LAUGHS) Captions by Desney Shaw, Faith Hamblyn and Jake Ebdale. www.able.co.nz Captions were made possible with funding from NZ On Air. Copyright Able 2015