GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE NATION. I'M LISA OWEN. AND I'M PATRICK GOWER. TODAY ` HAS THE GOVERNMENT GOT THE NUMBERS RIGHT ON IMMIGRATION? WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR WAS A SPIKE, AND THE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THAT WILL CONTINUE IF THE SETTINGS AREN'T TWEAKED. THAT'S WHAT WE DID THIS WEEK. WE ASK THE IMMIGRATION MINISTER MICHAEL WOODHOUSE IF THOSE TWEAKS ARE TARGETING THE RIGHT IMMIGRANTS. THEN ` DO WE NEED STRONGER SAFEGUARDS AGAINST WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS IN THIS COUNTRY? MIKE WESLEY-SMITH ON CALLS FOR A CRIMINAL CASE REVIEW COMMISSION. WE WOULD BE VERY HAPPY IF THERE WAS A UNIT LIKE THAT SET UP. I'M NOT SURE THAT YOU ARE ACTING AS A MINISTER OF JUSTICE IF YOU AREN'T TRYING TO RIGHT THE WRONGS THAT OCCUR IN THE SYSTEM. THEN WE WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH OUR PANEL ` BERNARD HICKEY AND TOBY MANHIRE ` AND FIND TIME TOO FOR 60 SECONDS OF POLITICS WITH JEREMY CORBETT AND PAUL EGO. YES, GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US TODAY, AND IT'S GREAT TO BE BACK, LISA. HAVEN'T BEEN HERE FOR A WHILE WITH YOU. NOW, AS FOR OUR AUDIENCE, WE LOVE HEARING FROM YOU GUYS, SO GET IN TOUCH. DETAILS ARE ON THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN, AND CHECK OUT OUR TWITTER PANEL, BECAUSE IT IS A GOOD ONE TODAY. OLD MATE AND UNIONIST MORGAN GODFERY AND SOCIAL COMMENTATOR BEVAN CHUANG. YOU CAN FOLLOW ALONG AT #NATIONTV3. ALL RIGHT, WELL, THE GOVERNMENT CLAMPED DOWN ON IMMIGRATION THIS WEEK, BUT DENIES IT WAS UNDER MOUNTING PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN CONCERNS ABOUT RECORD IMMIGRATION INFLAMING HOUSE PRICES AND DEPRESSING WAGES, BUT THE PRIME MINISTER HAS REPEATEDLY SAID THAT THE NUMBERS WERE ABOUT RIGHT. WELL, THIS WEEK THOSE NUMBERS GOT CUT, SO I SAT DOWN WITH THE IMMIGRATION MINISTER TO ASK WHAT THEY'RE UP TO AND WHAT THEY HOPE TO ACHIEVE. MICHAEL WOODHOUSE, THANKS FOR JOINING US THIS MORNING. I WANT TO START BY ASKING YOU A FEW PRACTICAL QUESTIONS, MINISTER, ABOUT HOW THIS WILL WORK. WILL IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE, FOR INSTANCE, TO TRAFFIC ON THE AUCKLAND MOTORWAY? WELL, PROBABLY NOT, BECAUSE THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF PEOPLE GAINING RESIDENCE ARE ALREADY HERE. SO WILL THIS CHANGE MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO HOUSE PRICES IN ANY WAY? WELL, IT'S NOT DESIGNED TO. WE'VE REVIEWED THE RESIDENCE PROGRAMME` OK, WELL, WHAT ABOUT SCHOOLS? WHAT ABOUT SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND THE PRESSURE THAT WE KNOW ARE ON THOSE? WILL THIS MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO THAT? WILL THIS MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO THE WAITING LISTS? WILL IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO THOSE PEOPLE THAT DON'T HAVE CLASSROOMS, THOSE SCHOOLS THAT DON'T HAVE CLASSROOMS? WELL, LOOK, THE CLASSROOMS ARE BEING BUILT, THE HOSPITALS ARE BEING REDEVELOPED, THE DEMAND IS BEING MET, BUT WHAT WE HAVE` WILL THIS IMMIGRATION CUT HELP IT OR NOT? YES OR NO, REALLY? WELL, IT'S NOT DESIGNED TO. IT'S DESIGNED TO HELP THE GOVERNMENT` WHAT IS IT DESIGNED TO DO, BECAUSE`? I'LL ANSWER THAT QUESTION. WHAT IS IT DESIGNED TO DO? BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE KINDS OF THINGS THAT ARE CONCERNING PEOPLE ABOUT IMMIGRATION, AND IT'S NOT GOING TO HELP ANY OF THEM? WELL, WHAT IT'S DESIGNED TO DO IS HELP THE GOVERNMENT PLAN FOR THE SORTS OF RANGE OF DEMAND FOR RESIDENTS THAT WE HAVE. WE'VE DONE THIS FOR ABOUT 15 YEARS, AND IT'S JUST A NORMAL REVIEW. WE HAVE THREE BROAD CATEGORIES OF RESIDENCE ` THAT'S OUR HUMANITARIAN OBLIGATIONS, OUR FAMILY AND PARTNERSHIPS` I UNDERSTAND THAT. I UNDERSTAND THAT IT'S FITTING WITH EVERYTHING. SO DOES EVERYONE WATCHING, BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO ACTUALLY` I'M NOT SURE THAT THEY DO, PADDY. IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT. IT'S NOT GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO WHAT THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT WAY TO EXPLAIN WHY WE DO WHAT WE DO. BECAUSE WE LIVE IN A GLOBALISED WORLD, A LOT OF THE PEOPLE THAT WE HAVE HERE WEREN'T BORN HERE. A LOT OF THEIR PARTNERS AND SPOUSES AND CHILDREN ARE ALSO COMING FROM OVERSEAS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT WE TRAVEL THE WORLD AND WE OFTEN FIND OUR LIFE PARTNERS SOMEWHERE ELSE. WE HAVE OUR PACIFIC AND HUMANITARIAN OBLIGATIONS. SO WE'VE ALWAYS HAD, BROADLY, THIS NUMBER OF PEOPLE COMING IN. WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR WAS A SPIKE, AND THE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT WILL CONTINUE IF THE SETTINGS AREN'T TWEAKED. THAT'S WHAT WE DID THIS WEEK. LET'S LOOK AT ONE OF THE CONCRETE CHANGES YOU'VE MADE, WHICH IS AROUND PARENTS AND FAMILY REUNIFICATION. YOU'VE SAID THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE COSTING THE TAXPAYER MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. CAN YOU TELL US EXACTLY HOW MANY MILLIONS AND HOW THEY'RE COSTING THAT? BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT THEY DON'T TAKE BENEFITS. THAT'LL BE THE SUBJECT OF A REVIEW, WHICH WE'VE DONE PERIODICALLY. SO DO YOU`? WHEN IT WAS LAST LOOKED AT` DO YOU KNOW? DO YOU HAVE A FIGURE? BROADLY, THE LAST TIME WE LOOKED AT THAT, WE DID SEE THAT THERE WERE HIGH LEVELS OF HEALTH CARE COSTS. WHEN WAS THAT? OH, THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO. IT WAS THE REASON WHY WE CLOSED ONE OF THE PARENT CATEGORIES, AND IT WAS ALSO THE REASON` OK, WELL, LET'S JUST STOP. SO YOU'VE GOT NO FIGURES RIGHT NOW ON HOW MUCH THESE PEOPLE ARE COSTING NZ? YOU'RE SAYING THEY'RE COSTING MILLIONS, BUT YOU'VE GOT FIGURES THAT ARE THREE TO FOUR YEARS OLD. THAT'LL BE THE SUBJECT OF THE REVIEW THAT WE'RE GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WHAT WE DID THIS WEEK WAS TAKE STEPS TO MAKE SURE THAT THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF RESIDENCE VISAS GRANTED WAS MAINTAINED. THERE ARE TWO BROAD AREAS WHERE WE CAN DO THAT. ONE IS IN THE CAPPED FAMILY CATEGORY, WHICH INCLUDES PARENTS, AND THE OTHER IS IN THE SKILLED MIGRANT CATEGORY. SO WE DID BOTH. ON THOSE PARENTS, WHEN YOU SAID THIS WEEK THAT THEY COST THE TAXPAYER MILLIONS, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY ACTUAL EVIDENCE OF THAT, DO YOU? ANY CURRENT EVIDENCE RIGHT NOW? WELL, LOOK, THOSE REVIEWS HAVE BEEN DONE IN THE PAST. THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO. I'M TALKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW, 2016, DO YOU HAVE A COST TO THE TAXPAYER OF THE PARENTS, YES OR NO? WE WILL CERTAINLY BE ANALYSING THAT AS WE UNDERSTAND WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO IN TERMS OF POLICY CHANGES. BECAUSE, WITH RESPECT, SHOULDN'T YOU HAVE ANALYSED THAT BEFORE YOU CUT THEM OFF? WE HAVEN'T CUT THEM OFF. WE'VE TAKEN A TEMPORARY PAUSE` YOU'VE BLOCKED THEM. YOU'VE PAUSED THEM OR WHATEVER. LOOK, PADDY` SHOULDN'T YOU HAVE DONE THE RESEARCH BEFORE THAT? I'LL JUST EXPLAIN THAT, BECAUSE I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT. THERE ARE OTHER WAYS PARENTS CAN COME IN. WE HAVE A PARENT AND GRANDPARENT LONG-TERM VISITOR VISA, WE HAVE A RESIDENT VISA WHICH FOR PEOPLE OF MEANS CAN COME AND STAY, AND THERE ARE OTHER WAYS THAT PARENTS CAN COME AND GO. BUT IT JUST LOOKS TO ME LIKE A CHEAP SHOT HERE. YOU'RE BLAMING THESE GRANDPARENTS. YOU'VE DONE NO RESEARCH. YOU'VE GOT NO NUMBERS. IT'S WINSTON PETERS KIND OF STUFF. WE DO HAVE THE NUMBERS, AND I WANT TO EXPLAIN THAT TO YOU. WHEN THE PARENT CATEGORY WAS LAST REVIEWED, WHAT WE DID SEE WAS THAT THE HEALTH CARE COSTS BY THEM WERE ABOUT THREE TIMES HIGHER THAN IN, FOR EXAMPLE, THE SKILLED MIGRANTS. WE ALSO SAW THAT THERE WERE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF INCOME SUPPORT, BOTH TWO YEARS AND FIVE YEARS AFTER THEY CAME HERE. I CAN'T REMEMBER THE EXACT NUMBERS IN MILLIONS OF COST OF INCOME SUPPORT, BUT WE WILL BE UPDATING AND ANALYSING THAT AS PART OF THE REVIEW. BUT ARE THESE PEOPLE REALLY THE PROBLEM, THE GRANDPARENTS? ARE THEY REALLY THE PROBLEM WHEN WE'VE HAD SORT OF 94,000 NON-NZERS AS MIGRANTS LAST YEAR? ARE THESE PARENTS, A FEW THOUSAND PARENTS, REALLY THE ISSUE? WELL, I'M NOT SURE WHERE THE 94,000'S COME FROM. STATISTICS NZ. WELL, STATISTICS NZ PRODUCE AN AWFUL LOT OF DATA. THE MOST COMMON REFERRED TO IS THE PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM NET MIGRATION DATA, WHICH, OF COURSE, ALSO INCLUDES NZERS, AND THEN` WE'VE TAKEN NZERS OUT OF THIS FIGURE. THAT COULD WELL BE RIGHT. WELL, I WANT TO PICK UP ON ONE THING THERE, AND THAT'S SOMETHING THAT I'VE ASKED THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT AND OTHERS AS WELL. 5900 WORK VISAS FOR TOUR GUIDES ` I'VE ASKED THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT THIS. WHY HAVE WE GRANTED SO MANY VISAS FOR TOUR GUIDES? LOOK, I THINK IT'S EASILY EXPLAINABLE. OUR TOURISM INDUSTRY IS GOING AGGRESSIVELY AT THE MOMENT. WE ARE SEEING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS MORE PEOPLE FROM COUNTRIES THAT DON'T SPEAK ENGLISH WHO ARE WANTING TO VISIT OUR COUNTRY AND SPEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS HERE. IT'S OUR NUMBER ONE EXPORT EARNER RIGHT NOW. SO IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT WE NEED A FEW PEOPLE TO HELP IN TERMS OF THE WAY IN WHICH THOSE PEOPLE ARE FACILITATED, PARTICULARLY WHEN THEY GO ON GUIDED TOURS. AND IS IT THE SAME WITH CHEFS? IS IT THE SAME WITH CHEFS AS WELL? YOU KNOW, YOU THINK WE'RE BRINGING IN THE RIGHT NUMBER OF CHEFS HERE ` A COUPLE OF THOUSAND? WELL, LOOK, AGAIN, WHEN THERE IS VERY STRONG GROWTH IN TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY, OBVIOUSLY THOSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO NEED TO BE FED WHILE THEY'RE HERE, SO IT'S ALL A SYMBIOTIC PROCESS. AND SO THE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP OVER A NUMBER OF CATEGORIES, AND, AGAIN, THAT SHOULDN'T SURPRISE ANYONE. SO YOU DON'T THINK THERE NEEDS TO BE A CUT IN THE WORK OR THE STUDENT VISA AREAS AS WELL TO MATCH WHAT YOU'VE ALREADY DONE? WELL, AS I SAID, THE ESSENTIAL SKILLS WORK VISAS WHICH COMPRISE THE LABOUR MARKET TEST, EITHER BY HAVING A SKILL SHORTAGE ` AN OCCUPATION ON THE SKILLS SHORTAGE LIST ` OR BY THE EMPLOYER PHYSICALLY GOING AND CHECKING WHETHER THERE'S A KIWI AVAILABLE TO DO THE JOB, THE NUMBERS OF THOSE VISAS HAVE GONE DOWN IN OUR TIME IN OFFICE. BECAUSE WHAT SOME OF THIS LOOKS LIKE IS IF YOU'RE NOT ADJUSTING WITH THE STUDENT VISAS, YOU'RE NOT ADJUSTING WITH THE WORK VISAS, YOU'VE TAKEN THIS GIGANTIC SWIPE AT THE GRANDPARENTS THAT YOU'VE GOT NO RESEARCH ON. IT LOOKS AS IF YOU'RE REACTING TO POLLS. IT LOOKS AS IF YOU'RE REACTING TO PUBLIC PRESSURE. IT LOOKS AS IF YOU'RE REACTING TO POLITICAL PRESSURE. WELL, LOOK, THAT'S JUST NONSENSE. THIS IS A VERY NORMAL REVIEW THAT WE DO FROM TIME TO TIME. NO ONE'S TAKING A SWIPE AT ANYBODY. THERE ARE LIMITS TO THE WAY IN WHICH WE CAN CONTROL THE RESIDENTS, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE OF OUR HUMANITARIAN OBLIGATIONS, AND THOSE FAMILY AND PARTNERSHIPS. AND JUST ON THE STUDENT VISA ISSUE, IF WE LOOK AT THIS SORT OF WAVE THAT'S COMING IN IN TERMS OF APPLYING FOR PERMANENT RESIDENCY, SOME OF THAT IS OBVIOUSLY TO BLAME WITH THE HIGH NUMBER OF STUDENT VISAS THAT HAVE COME IN, ISN'T IT? STUDENTS WHO ARE WANTING TO STAY ON WHO ARE APPLYING FOR PERMANENT RESIDENCY. IS THAT WHAT SOME OF THIS IS DESIGNED TO CATCH? I THINK SOME OF THE PRESSURE HAS COME FROM THAT AREA, BUT WE HAVE AN INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION PROGRAMME THAT IS DESIGNED TO DELIVER GOOD EDUCATION, NOT RESIDENCY. BUT AS YOU SAY THERE, SOME OF THE PRESSURE HAS COME FROM THAT, HASN'T IT, STUDENTS FINISHING THEIR TIME AND WANTING TO STAY ON AND WANTING TO GET ON THAT PATHWAY TO PERMANENT RESIDENCY? YEAH, AND FOR THOSE WHO HAVE THE SKILLS THAT ARE IN SHORT SUPPLY IN NZ AND QUALIFY UNDER THE SKILLED MIGRANT PROGRAMME, THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE. I THINK THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE IS FEWER THAN 20% OF THE PEOPLE WHO STUDY HERE ACTUALLY GET TO STAY, FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS, NOT JUST THE SKILLED MIGRATION CATEGORY. SOME OF THEM ACTUALLY FIND THEIR LIFE PARTNERS HERE. BUT WILL SOME OF THEM FIND IT HARDER NOW THAT THEY'VE GOT TO PASS THE ENGLISH TEST, THAT THEY'VE GOT TO GET THE EXTRA 20 POINTS? WELL, FIRSTLY` DO YOU THINK SOME STUDENTS WILL FIND IT A BIT HARDER TO STAY ON? THE STANDARD FOR ENGLISH HASN'T CHANGED. IT'S JUST THE METHOD OF ESTABLISHING THAT. BUT THE INCREASE IN THE POINTS FOR SKILLED MIGRANT RESIDENT VISAS COULD RESULT IN FEWER GRADUATES QUALIFYING. BUT AS I SAY, THE GOAL OF INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION IS TO GET A GOOD EDUCATION. SO BASICALLY STUDENTS WILL FIND IT A BIT HARDER TO STAY ON, WON'T THEY? THAT'S POSSIBLE, YEAH. IS THAT SORT OF RIPPING THEM OFF? BECAUSE WE KNOW THEY DO COME FOR EDUCATION, BUT THEY ALSO COME FOR THAT PATHWAY TO RESIDENCE AS WELL. DO YOU FEEL THAT SOME OF THEM MIGHT BE THINKING THAT THEY'VE BEEN MISLED BY THIS, BY THIS GOVERNMENT? WELL, IF THEY HAVE` IT'S CHANGING THE GOALPOST, TO USE A VERY NZ TERM. IF THEY HAVE AN EXPECTATION OF RESIDENCE AT THE END OF THEIR STUDY, THAT'S NOT AN EXPECTATION THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS SET, SO I DON'T ACCEPT THAT WE HAVE PARTICIPATED IN THAT MISUNDERSTANDING. NOW, THE LABOUR PARTY HAS LONG CRITICISED GOVERNMENT POLICY AND CALLED FOR IMMIGRATION TO BE SLASHED. NOW THE GREENS HAVE COME UP WITH THEIR TAKE ON THE NUMBERS. GREEN PARTY CO-LEADER JAMES SHAW JOINS ME NOW. GOOD MORNING. GOOD MORNING, LISA. START BY OUTLINING WHAT YOUR PLAN'S GOING TO BE AROUND IMMIGRATION. WELL, WE THINK THAT THE COUNTRY NEEDS A MORE SUSTAINABLE IMMIGRATION POLICY, SO WHAT WE WOULD DO IS TO SET A VARIABLE APPROVALS TARGET BASED ON A PERCENTAGE OF THE OVERALL POPULATION, AND SO THAT WOULD BE AT ABOUT 1% OF THE POPULATION, WHICH IS HISTORICALLY HOW FAST NZ'S POPULATION HAS GROWN. SO WHAT WE WOULD DO IS WE'D SAY, WELL, IF YOU LOOK AT A PERIOD LIKE AT THE MOMENT, WHEN YOU'VE GOT LOTS OF KIWIS COMING HOME AND NOT MANY LEAVING, THEN THE NUMBER OF APPROVALS WOULD BE MUCH LOWER, AND IN OTHER YEARS IT WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SO, FOR 1% POPULATION GROWTH, YOU'RE SAYING` ON THE NUMBERS THAT WE HAVE, THAT'S A TOTAL NUMBER OF ABOUT 45,000` THAT'S RIGHT. ...BUT ONLY PART OF THEM WOULD BE IMMIGRANTS, BECAUSE SOME OF THEM WOULD BE RETURNING KIWIS. YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. SO HOW MANY IN A YEAR LIKE THIS YEAR WOULD BE IMMIGRANTS? WELL, THIS YEAR YOU'D BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 17-20,000 NET MIGRANTS TO NZ. IN ANOTHER YEAR` COMPARED TO? COMPARED TO 70,000. SO AT THE MOMENT, YOU'VE GOT` IMMIGRATION HAS ACTUALLY BOOSTED OUR POPULATION BY 1.5%, SO NZ'S POPULATION IS GROWING MUCH FASTER THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS YEARS, AND THAT'S WHY YOU'RE GETTING THE STRAIN ON HOUSE PRICES AND CONGESTION. WELL, I JUST WANT TO UNPACK THIS A LITTLE BIT. SO THAT'S 17-ODD THOUSAND THAT YOU WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT IN A YEAR LIKE THIS ONE. DOES THAT INCLUDE EVERYONE ` PERMANENT RESIDENTS, STUDENT VISAS, WORK VISAS AND PEOPLE BRINGING THEIR PARENTS? THAT 17,000 IS THE WHOLE LOT? THAT'S RIGHT, THAT'S THE TOP LINE NET MIGRATION FIGURE THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. AND IF THAT'S GOING TO GO UP AND DOWN DEPENDING ON HOW MANY KIWIS ARE COMING HOME, THE THING IS YOU CAN'T CONTROL THAT. YOU CAN'T CONTROL HOW MANY KIWIS ARE COMING HOME, SO YOU COULD BE TURNING THE TAP WAY DOWN ON IMMIGRATION. AND WAY UP. SO THE WHOLE IDEA HERE IS TO TRY AND SMOOTH OUT THE PEAKS AND TROUGHS. IF YOU LOOK AT GOVERNMENT POLICY, WHAT THEY DO IS THEY TRY AND SAY, WELL, THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 45-55,000 A YEAR, BUT THAT SITS ON TOP OF MOVEMENTS IN THE GENERAL POPULATION, WHICH IS WHY YOU HAVE THESE BIG PEAKS AND TROUGHS. AND THAT'S WHY PEOPLE ARE GETTING CONCERNED ABOUT IT THIS YEAR ` BECAUSE IT'S HAVING AN OUTSIZE IMPACT ON HOUSE PRICES, ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND ON WAGES, ACTUALLY. BUT THE THING ABOUT THIS IS THAT YOU'RE A PARTY THAT HAS CONSISTENTLY SAID THAT YOU SUPPORT IMMIGRATION. THAT IS A MASSIVE DROP FROM 70,000 NET DOWN TO 17,000 FOR A PARTY THAT SAYS IT SUPPORTS IMMIGRATION. WELL, IN OTHER YEARS, YOU'D BE LOOKING AT 30,000 COMING IN, WHICH IS` STILL, THAT'S HALF THE CURRENT NUMBERS. WELL, THAT'S HALF OF WHAT IT IS AT CURRENT NUMBERS. SO IMMIGRATION IS REALLY IMPORTANT TO NZ. WE REALLY BELIEVE IN A DIVERSE SOCIETY. WE BELIEVE IN THE CONTRIBUTION THAT MIGRANTS MAKE. BUT YOU'VE ALSO GOT TO CATER FOR CHANGES IN INFRASTRUCTURE, AND BECAUSE OUR POPULATION HAS HISTORICALLY GROWN AT ABOUT 1%, THE COUNTRY IS SET UP TO ABSORB THAT. YOU SUDDENLY DOUBLE THAT NUMBER AND YOU'VE GOT A PROBLEM LIKE WE'VE GOT AT THE MOMENT WHERE YOU ACTUALLY CAN'T MEET THE DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THAT'S WHY PEOPLE ARE GETTING CONCERNED RIGHT NOW. BUT AS BILL ENGLISH WOULD SAY, YOU ALSO GET A BENEFIT FOR THAT, AND IF YOU LOOK AT OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH NUMBERS, HALF OF THAT IS MADE UP BY IMMIGRATION. YOUR PLAN WOULD PUT THE HANDBRAKE ON OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. YOU'D NEED TO MANAGE IT DOWN SLOWLY, SO WE WOULDN'T SAY THAT NEXT YEAR IT SHOULD SUDDENLY DROP BY THAT AMOUNT. WHAT YOU WANT IS TO SORT OF SMOOTH IT DOWN SO THAT WE GET BACK TO THE KIND OF SUSTAINABLE POPULATION GROWTH THAT WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES. SO FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE TIME THAT I'VE BEEN ALIVE, OUR POPULATION HAS GONE UP BY ABOUT HALF. BY THE TIME I DIE ` BENIGN ASSUMPTION ` IT WILL HAVE DOUBLED. IT DOUBLES ABOUT EVERY 70 YEARS. AT THE MOMENT IT'S DOUBLING EVERY 35 YEARS, AND THAT'S PUTTING A LOT OF STRAIN ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND HOUSING. THAT'S WHERE THE CONCERN COMES FROM. BUT YOU COULD POTENTIALLY CRASH HOUSE PRICES. YOU COULD CARVE OFF HALF OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. NOT IF YOU SMOOTH IT DOWN. CHANGES IN MIGRATION FLOWS TO THE EQUIVALENT OF 1% OF POPULATION ACTUALLY PUSH UP HOUSE PRICES BY ABOUT 6-12%, SO IT'S SIGNIFICANT AND NOTICEABLE, BUT IT'S NOT 100%. IT'S NOT A HUGE OUTSIDE NUMBER. IF YOU SMOOTH THAT NUMBER DOWN, YOU'RE GONNA PUT LESS PRESSURE ON HOUSE PRICES THE WAY THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST SORT OF 12-24 MONTHS. YOU'VE GOT A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING. WHAT DOES LABOUR THINK OF YOUR PLAN? WELL, WE'VE HAD A BIT OF A CHAT TO THEM ABOUT IT, AND THEY SEEM COMFORTABLE WITH THE IDEA. COMFORTABLE? THEY AGREE WITH YOUR NUMBERS? YOU'D HAVE TO ASK THEM. OK. THE OTHER THING IS THAT A LOT OF WORK VISAS AND STUDENTS COMING HERE TO WORK ` THEY'RE ALL TIED TO BILATERAL AGREEMENTS. I MEAN, CAN YOU TELL CANADIANS, BRITS AND AMERICANS, 'YOU CAN'T COME HERE ANYMORE IN THE SAME NUMBERS ON THOSE WORK VISAS,'? BECAUSE WE'RE ALL GOING THERE TO WORK. WELL, THIS IS THE THING ABOUT HAVING A NET NUMBER. SO IF KIWIS ARE LEAVING AND CANADIANS AND BRAZILIANS AND SO ON ARE COMING, THEN IT NETS OUT. SO THAT'S` BUT YOU'RE STILL LOWERING OVERALL NUMBERS, THOUGH. YOU'RE STILL LOWERING THE NET NUMBER. THAT'S CORRECT. YEAH. BUT THAT'S WHERE ALL THE CONCERN IS AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF THE HUGE IMPACT THAT THE CURRENT BUBBLE IS HAVING ON HOUSE PRICES AND ON TRANSPORT AND SO ON. THE COUNTRY'S GOT A CHOICE ` ARE WE COMFORTABLE WITH THOSE KIND OF PEAKS AND TROUGHS WHERE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC DRAG, WHERE YOU'VE GOT THESE HUGE BUBBLES IN HOUSE PRICES, WHERE` BUT COULD YOU BE THE PARTY THAT KILLS THE GREAT KIWI OE IF THEY TURN AROUND AND DO THE SAME THING TO US? LOOK, THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE WHOLE POINT IS THAT YOU NET IT OUT, SO THE NUMBERS OF KIWIS LEAVING WOULD BE ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO THE NUMBERS THAT ARE COMING IN. IF YOU TAKE STUDENT VISAS, FOR EXAMPLE, WE THINK THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS ACTUALLY BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE BY PUTTING THE PRESSURE ON THE FAMILY CATEGORY, BUT THERE'S HUGE NUMBERS OF STUDENTS THAT ARE COMING INTO NZ ON TEMPORARY WORK VISAS AND THAT'S ACTUALLY WHERE A LOT OF THE PRESSURE IS COMING FROM, ESPECIALLY ON HOUSING AND ON TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE. WELL, WE'LL WATCH THAT SPACE. THE MINISTER SAID THAT WILL BE A YEAR AWAY. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US, JAMES SHAW. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. WELL, WE WILL DISCUSS IMMIGRATION AND MORE WITH OUR PANEL LATER IN THE PROGRAMME, AND AFTER THE BREAK, DO WE NEED MORE SAFEGUARDS TO STOP WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS? SPEAKING OF SAFEGUARDS, RIGHT NOW ` JEREMY CORBETT AND PAUL EGO WITH THEIR TAKE ON THE LOCAL ELECTIONS. THE BIG QUESTION THIS WEEK ` LOCAL BODY ELECTIONS. WHAT'S THE SOLUTION TO LOW VOTER TURNOUT? ONLINE VOTING? MANDATORY VOTING? MAKE IT A REALITY TV SHOW? PAUL? I DON'T THINK THERE IS A SOLUTION, JEREMY. WHY NOT? WELL, BECAUSE YOU NEED MORE INTERESTING CANDIDATES. SO? WELL, YOU CAN'T BE INTERESTING AND WANT TO GET INTO LOCAL BODY POLITICS. OH, I SEE YOUR POINT. STILL, WE CAN DO BETTER ` ONLY A THIRD VOTED. YEAH, BUT SURELY INSTEAD OF SAYING 'A THIRD', WE COULD SAY 'A BRONZE', AND IN NZ, THAT MEANS WE CAN DO A HAKA. SO AN EXCELLENT TURNOUT, THEN. YES. WELL DONE. A FEW LABOUR PARTY MAYORS ` HAS THERE BEEN A SHIFT TO THE LEFT? WELL, IF YOU ASK LABOUR, OF COURSE, IT'S THE START OF A MASSIVE RISING RED TIDE THAT'S GONNA SWEEP THEM TO VICTORY IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION. IF YOU ASK ANYONE ELSE? EH, I DUNNO. IN OTHER NEWS, WHAT ABOUT CHINA TELLING NZ TO BUTT OUT OF THE DISPUTE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA? WELL, IF YOU ASK LABOUR, OF COURSE, IT'S THE START OF A MASSIVE RISING RED TIDE THAT WILL SWEEP THEM TO VICTORY IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION. JUDITH COLLINS HINTING AT INCREASING POLICE NUMBERS. WELL, THAT'S THE START OF A MASSIVE BLUE TIDE THAT WILL SWEEP NATIONAL TO VICTORY IN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION. AND FINALLY, JOHN KEY INSISTING FIRST HOME BUYERS NEED TO LOOK AT BUYING AN APARTMENT. WELL, JOHN KEY'S GOTTA REALISE THAT FIRST HOME BUYERS COME FROM ALL WALKS OF LIFE AND HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT NEEDS, DREAMS, ASPIRATIONS. AND WHAT'S YOUR POINT? YOU CAN'T JUST PUT THEM IN A BOX. MIKE WESLEY-SMITH ON CALLS FOR A CRIMINAL CASE REVIEW COMMISSION. WELCOME BACK. WHEN TEINA PORA WAS EXONERATED EARLIER THIS YEAR, IT WAS ONLY AFTER A LENGTHY LEGAL BATTLE AND THE DEDICATION OF A TEAM WHO BELIEVED HE'D BEEN WRONGED BY THE SYSTEM. NOW, SADLY, MANY OTHER CASES DON'T SUCCEED IN THE SAME WAY, SO IN THIS TWO-PART REPORT, MIKE WESLEY-SMITH HAS LOOKED AT WHY WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS COMES ABOUT, AND WHETHER ` AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT ` WHETHER OUR SYSTEM IS SET UP TO RESCUE INNOCENCE WHEN IT IS LOST. A JUDGE ONCE WROTE THAT ITS BETTER THAT 10 GUILTY PEOPLE ESCAPE JUSTICE THAN HAVE ONE INNOCENT PERSON SUFFER. CAN ANYTHING UNDO THE HARM THAT'S BEEN CAUSED TO YOU BY THIS WHOLE PROCESS? NOT REALLY, NO. BECAUSE THOSE WRONGLY SUSPECTED... NOW, THE REASON WE ARE SPEAKING WITH YOU, AARON, IS WE'RE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE RAPE OF A YOUNG GIRL ...AND WRONGFULLY CONVICTED... AARON ALL I AM AFTER IS THE TRUTH. I'M GIVING YOU THE TRUTH. ...DO SUFFER ` TERRIBLY. LIFE CHANGING? YEAH. PARTICULARLY SO BECAUSE AARON LIVES WITH ASPERGER'S AND OTHER MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES. IT'S THE REASON AARON'S MUM, BEV, IS PROTECTIVE OF HIM. BUT SHE COULDN'T PROTECT HIM IN JAIL. EVERY DAY, I GOT UP, AND I'D BE IN THE KITCHEN, AND I'D MAKE A POINT OF SAYING SOMETHING TO AARON, EVEN THOUGH HE WASN'T THERE. 'HI, AARON HOPE YOU'RE ALL RIGHT TODAY. JUST HANG IN` HANG IN THERE AS LONG AS YOU CAN. WE'LL WIN. 'WE HAVE TO WIN.' AARON WOULD BE CLEARED OF RAPING A WOMAN BY DNA. SADLY, THOUGH, LIKE OTHER WELL KNOWN CASES, IT WAS A LONG, HARD ROAD TO EXONERATION. I WENT THROUGH SOME SHOCKING TIMES. SHOCKING TIMES. DAVID: I WAS ON A SUICIDE-RISK WATCH. I GOT DOWN ON MY KNEES AND I TOLD THE LORD THAT THAT WAS ME; I'VE HAD IT. WOMAN: DO YOU FIND THE ACCUSED, TEINA PORA, GUILTY OR NOT GUILTY OF MURDER? WOMAN: GUILTY. TEINA: I HAD NOTHING. NO ONE CARED` IT WAS LIKE NOBODY CARED ABOUT ME. BUT HOW DOES A SYSTEM DESIGNED TO PROTECT AN INNOCENT END UP IMPRISONING THEM? WHAT ARE THE HUMAN ERRORS THAT CAUSE THIS TO HAPPEN? WELL, THANKS TO THE ALMOST 1900 EXONERATIONS SO FAR UNCOVERED IN THE UNITED STATES, THERE'S NOW A HUGE DATASET FROM WHICH TO IDENTIFY THE COMMON CAUSES OF WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS. THE AMERICAN REGISTRY OF EXONERATIONS HAS IDENTIFIED THE MOST COMMON CONTRIBUTING FACTORS IN WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS CASES. THEY ARE ` MISTAKEN WITNESS IDENTIFICATION, PERJURY OR FALSE ACCUSATIONS, FALSE CONFESSIONS, INACCURATE FORENSICS AND MISCONDUCT BY OFFICIALS. WE KNOW THAT FORENSIC EVIDENCE CAN BE WRONG, AND THERE WAS THE DAVID DOUGHERTY CASE. WE KNOW THAT CONFESSIONS CAN BE, YOU KNOW, NOT UNCONVINCING BUT STILL WRONG, AND THERE'S THE TEINA PORA CASE. WE KNOW THAT IDENTIFICATION EVIDENCE CAN BE WRONG AND WE HAVE THE AARON FARMER CASE. TO TRULY UNDERSTAND THESE CAUSES, YOU FIRST NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES OF A CRIMINAL CASE THAT CAN BRING THEM ABOUT. RESEARCH SHOWS THERE ARE CERTAIN CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO GIVE RISE TO MISCARRIAGES OF JUSTICE. THEY ARE ` PUBLIC PRESSURE TO CONVICT IN SERIOUS, HIGH-PROFILE CASES. REPORTER: HIS SUPPORTERS BELIEVED HE HAD NO CHANCE OF ESCAPING A GUILTY VERDICT AND THE DICE WERE LOADED FROM THE VERY START. AN UNPOPULAR DEFENDANT, OFTEN AN OUTSIDER OR MEMBER OF A MINORITY GROUP. GRAB A SEAT OVER THERE, TEINA. AND A LEGAL ENVIRONMENT THAT CONVERTS THE INVESTIGATION AND TRIAL PROCESS INTO A GAME, WITH THE RESULT BEING BOTH SIDES CAN WANT TO WIN AT ALL COSTS. SITTING OF THE ROYAL COMMISSION TO ENQUIRE INTO THE CASE OF ARTHUR ALLAN THOMAS IS NOW TO CONTINUE. ALL OF THESE INFLUENCES CAN RUN COUNTER TO THE ORIGINAL INTENTION OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM ` TO FIND THE TRUTH OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE CRITICAL MOMENTS BEFORE THE CRIME IS DISCOVERED. THERE'S A SENSE OF URGENCY AROUND THE INVESTIGATIONS, AND THAT IS IT SIMPLY BECAUSE THAT THERE'S PERSON OUT THERE WHO HAS KILLED SOMEBODY, AND WE'VE GOT TO FIND THEM. RETIRED DETECTIVE INSPECTOR LANCE BURDETT SPENT 22 YEARS WITH THE POLICE CHASING OFFENDERS, INCLUDING MURDERERS. THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF PUBLIC PRESSURE PERHAPS, SOME MEDIA ATTENTION. YOU WANT TO HELP THE FAMILY. WHAT IMPACT DOES THE 'NEED TO WIN' MENTALITY HAVE ON POLICE INVESTIGATORS? PERSONALLY, IT WAS A BIG THING FOR ME. IT'S NOT SO MUCH THE NEED TO WIN BUT THE NEED TO FIND THE PERSON RESPONSIBLE. I'VE NEVER MET A POLICE OFFICER YET WHO HAS SAID 'THAT PERSON WILL DO'. RIGHT. IT DOESN'T HAPPEN. BUT WHAT WE DO SOMETIMES IS THAT WE SATISFY OURSELVES BY SAYING, 'HERE'S ALL THE INFORMATION.' DEFENCE COUNSEL ARE THERE TO BRING THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT BECAUSE WE'RE GOING TO GIVE THEM ALL THE INFORMATION WE HAVE ON OUR FILE, AND THEN THERE IS A JUDICIAL PROCESS TO GO THROUGH. LANCE'S VIEWS ARE SHARED BY THE POLICE ASSOCIATION, WHO BELIEVE AVOIDING TUNNEL VISION IS VITAL. INDEED, THEY SUPPORTED A REVIEW OF THE TEINA PORA CASE. ANY GOOD DETECTIVE GOES INTO A TRIAL OR AN INVESTIGATION WITH THE ABC OF POLICING ` YOU ACCEPT NOTHING, YOU BELIEVE NO ONE, AND YOU CORROBORATE EVERYTHING. THE WORST THING YOU DO AS A DETECTIVE IS LET THE SCENE FIT YOUR THEORY. JULIE-ANNE KINCADE IS A DEFENCE LAWYER AND FORMER CROWN PROSECUTOR, SOMEONE WHO HAS SEEN ALL SIDES OF POLICE WORK. SHE SAYS WHILE POLICE MOSTLY DO A GOOD JOB, TUNNEL VISION CAN SOMETIMES BE AN ISSUE. THEY HAVE GOT THE BIT BETWEEN THEIR TEETH ABOUT A PARTICULAR POINT, AND THEY CARRY ON AND CARRY ON INVESTIGATING IT. PERHAPS TREATING WITNESSES IN A MANNER WHICH IS FAR FROM IDEAL. AND THESE ARE NOT THE STANDARDS THAT ANYONE WOULD WANT ANY OF OUR POLICE OFFICERS TO BE UPHOLDING. IN AARON FARMER'S INVESTIGATION FOR RAPE, AARON WAS WRONGLY TOLD BY A DETECTIVE HIS DNA HAD BEEN FOUND ON THE VICTIM. HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN WHY YOUR DNA HAD ENDED UP HERE? THE LOCAL POLICE COMMANDER WOULD LATER ACCEPT THE DETECTIVE'S CONDUCT HAD BEEN WRONG. YOU COULD CALL IT BLUFFING. YOU COULD CALL IT A LIE. IF YOU WANTED TO CALL A LIE, I'D ACCEPT THAT. THEN, OF COURSE, THERE WAS THE MISCONDUCT WIDELY PUBLICISED INVESTIGATION OF ARTHUR ALLAN THOMAS FOR THE CREWE MURDERS. IN EVERY ORGANISATION, THERE IS BAD APPLES. AND UNFORTUNATELY WE REMEMBER THE NEGATIVES IN LIFE. WE DON'T REMEMBER THE HUNDREDS OF SUCCESSFUL CONVICTIONS. BETWEEN 1980 AND 2015, THERE WERE MORE THAN THREE MILLION SUCCESSFUL CONVICTIONS, WHILE OVER THE SAME PERIOD OVER 670,000 CHARGES WERE NOT PROVED. MOST OF THESE DIDN'T ATTRACT THE PUBLICITY OF THE HIGH-PROFILE EXONERATIONS THAT INVOLVED DECADES-OLD INVESTIGATIONS. POLICE POINT OUT THAT INVESTIGATIVE TECHNIQUES HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, INCLUDING BETTER INTERVIEWING PROCEDURES AND USING INDEPENDENT DETECTIVES TO VET THE WORK OF OTHER OFFICERS. YOU'LL QUICKLY GET SOMEONE BROUGHT IN FROM THE OUTSIDE JUST TO EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE TO MAKE THE SURE THE BLINKERS HAVEN'T GONE ON, THAT WE'RE HEADING OFF DOWN THE WRONG PATH. AND IT'S NOT JUST THE POLICE THAT CAN HEAD DOWN THE WRONG PATH. IN AARON FARMER'S CASE, HIS TRIAL COUNSEL WAS CRITICISED BY APPEAL JUDGES FOR NOT CALLING KEY ALIBI EVIDENCE THAT PLACED AARON AWAY FROM THE CRIME SCENE. HIS LAWYER ALSO ADVISED AARON THERE WERE NO GROUNDS TO APPEAL HIS CONVICTION. THE FACT IS MY LAWYER DIDN'T DO HIS JOB. AARON'S CASE INVOLVES MANY FEATURES COMMON TO WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS, LIKE WITNESS MISIDENTIFICATION. THE VICTIM SAID SHE WAS 90% SURE HE WAS HER ATTACKER, EVEN THOUGH DNA SHOWED THAT COULDN'T BE THE CASE. DAVID DOUGHERTY WAS ALSO WRONGFULLY IDENTIFIED. SO HOW CAN EYE WITNESSES BE SO SURE, SO COMPELLING, YET BE SO WRONG? WOULD IT BE RIGHT FOR PEOPLE TO CONSIDER THEIR MEMORY TO BE LIKE A RECORDING DEVICE, LIKE, SAY, A VIDEO CAMERA? ABSOLUTELY NOT. DANNY OSBORNE IS A PSYCHOLOGY LECTURER. HE HAS STUDIED THE WEAKNESSES IN EYE WITNESSES' EVIDENCE, INCLUDING THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN FACE-TO-FACE WITH THEIR OFFENDER. MEMORY IS VERY MUCH A RECONSTRUCTIVE PROCESS, SO PEOPLE END UP TRYING TO PIECE TOGETHER THE DIFFERENT TINY PIECES OF INFORMATION THEY HAVE, AND AS A RESULT, SOMETIMES END UP GETTING IT WRONG. EXPERTS SAY MEMORY IS FRAGILE, OPEN TO INFLUENCE FROM OTHER WITNESSES, POLICE INTERVIEWERS OR THE MEDIA. SO WE ENLISTED DANNY'S HELP TO CONDUCT A SOCIAL EXPERIMENT TO ILLUSTRATE HOW MISTAKEN IDENTIFICATIONS CAN OCCUR. THESE THREE UNSUSPECTING WITNESSES WERE TOLD THEY WERE GOING TO BE INVOLVED IN A FILMED WINE-TASTING SESSION. WHAT THEY DIDN'T KNOW IS KRISTIN, POSING AS THE WINE SALESPERSON, IS AN ACTOR ABOUT TO GET HER BAG SNATCHED BY ANOTHER ACTOR CALLED CRAIG. OH MY GOD. HE GOT HER BAG? OH MY GOSH. DID THAT REALLY`? EACH WITNESS WAS THEN TAKEN DOWN TO SPEAK WITH FORMER DETECTIVE TIM MCKINNEL ABOUT WHAT THEY SAW. YOU SAW HIM GRAB THE BAG? YES. DID YOU GET A GOOD LOOK AT HIM? A REASONABLE LOOK, I THINK. NOW, JUST TO REMIND YOU HERE IS A CLOSE-UP OF CRAIG, OUR BAG SNATCHER. HE IS 24, HAS BROWN HAIR AND WAS WEARING A BLACK LEATHER JACKET AND BLUE JEANS. CAUCASIAN, BLONDE HAIR. MID-LENGTH BROWN HAIR. MID-30S. MAYBE LATE 20S. BLACK T-SHIRT, I THINK, OR BLACK TROUSERS. A BROWN JACKET ON. IF YOU SAW HIM AGAIN, DO YOU THINK YOU'D RECOGNISE HIM? I THINK SO. SO, WHAT I'D LIKE TO DO IS SHOW YOU A SERIES OF PHOTOGRAPHS, IF YOU COULD HAVE A LOOK AT THOSE AND TELL ME IF YOU RECOGNISE THE PERSON YOU SAW. I THINK IT WAS 'C'. E. YEAH, I WOULD GO WITH 'C'. NOW CAME OUR FINAL SURPRISE FOR THE WITNESSES... BUT I CAN TELL YOU THAT THE PERSON WHO TOOK THE BAG ISN'T IN THE PHOTO BOARD HERE. (GASPS) OHH. RIGHT. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT A CROWN CASE THAT RELIES ENTIRELY ON WITNESS IDENTIFICATION? I'D BE VERY VERY CAUTIOUS WITH CASES LIKE THAT. NOW, OUR TRIAL SYSTEM RELIES ON THE APPEAL COURTS TO DETECT LEGAL ERRORS AND ISSUES LIKE FALSE CONFESSIONS AND WITNESS MISIDENTIFICATION. JUSTICE YOUNG SAYS THE APPELLATE COURTS LARGELY PERFORM THIS FUNCTION WELL AND POINTS OUT THAT THE DAVID DOUGHERTY AND AARON FARMER CONVICTIONS WERE QUASHED IN THE COURT OF APPEAL. JUDGES DO RECEIVE A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF TRAINING FROM THE INSTITUTE OF JUDICIAL STUDIES, THAT THEY'RE AWARE OF THE WAY MEMORY WORKS, THE TRICKS OF MEMORY, ITS FRAILTIES, HOW IT CAN BE BEST PRESERVED. THEY'RE AWARE OF IDENTIFICATION ISSUES. THEY'RE GENERALLY AWARE OF THE WAY CONFESSIONS WORK. AND OF COURSE, WITH CONFESSIONS, WE HAVE ROUTINE VIDEO TAPING, REASONABLY CLEAR RULES ABOUT HOW THOSE INTERROGATIONS CAN BE CONDUCTED BY THE POLICE. ALL RULES DESIGNED TO MAKE SURE INNOCENCE IS PROTECTED, BECAUSE WHEN IT ISN'T, THESE ARE THE TYPE OF MOMENTS A MUM CAN'T HAVE WITH HER SON. I'M GLAD HE'S HERE. I'M GLAD HE'S HERE! I REALLY REALLY AM. AND WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE FROM MIKE WESLEY-SMITH AFTER THE BREAK. WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY. BACK TO THE NATION. NOW, BEFORE THE BREAK WE SAW JUST HOW EASILY ` JUST HOW EASILY ` MISCARRIAGES OF JUSTICE CAN HAPPEN, BUT IN NZ, DOES IT TAKE TOO LONG TO RECOGNISE THEM? THAT'S THE QUESTION, REALLY. AND IF SO, IS IT A CASE OF JUSTICE DELAYED BEING JUSTICE DENIED? AGAIN, HERE'S MIKE WESLEY-SMITH. HIS COURT RECORD SHOWS AARON'S NAME WAS CLEARED, BUT IT DOESN'T SHOW THE HUGE AMOUNT OF WORK REQUIRED TO PROVE INNOCENCE IN NZ. YOU JUST HAVE A LITTLE HAMMER AND A LITTLE CHISEL AND YOU JUST KEEP HACKING. YOU KEEP WRITING LETTERS AND YOU JUST KEEP GOING ON AND ON AND ON. ON AND ON LIKE THE EX-DETECTIVE WHO SPENT THOUSANDS OF HOURS TRYING TO FIND EVIDENCE OF INNOCENCE. THESE CASES SHOULDN'T HAVE TO RELY ON PEOPLE GIVING UP A LOT TO ACHIEVE JUSTICE. IN TEINA PORA'S CASE IT TOOK MORE THAN TWO DECADES FOR HIM TO PROVE HIS INNOCENCE, WHICH BEGS THE QUESTION, IS THE SYSTEM SET UP TO ROOT OUT INNOCENCE WHEN IT IS MISSED BY THE APPEAL COURTS? THE APPELLATE COURT WON'T INVESTIGATE ANYTHING OFF ITS OWN BAT. IT DEALS WITH THE CASE THAT THE PARTIES PUT UP ON EACH SIDE. WE'LL OCCASIONALLY SAY PERHAPS THERE SHOULD BE MORE WORK DONE ON THIS, BUT ON THE WHOLE IT REACTS TO THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED. APPEAL COURTS ARE NOT THE PLACE OF LAST RESORT FOR PEOPLE CONVICTED IN NZ. THEY CAN APPLY TO THE GOVERNOR GENERAL FOR A PARDON. IN PRACTICE, THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE AND THEIR OFFICIALS ARE TASKED WITH ASSESSING APPLICATIONS AND ADVISING THE GOVERNOR GENERAL, WHO THEN FOLLOWS THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS. SINCE 1995 THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE HAS CONSIDERED 162 APPLICATIONS FOR THE ROYAL PREROGATIVE OF MERCY. OF THOSE, IT HAS REFERRED 15 CASES TO THE COURTS, RESULTING IN 12 CONVICTIONS BEING QUASHED, AND THAT IS EQUAL TO 80% OF CASES REFERRED. THE GOVERNMENT STANDS BY ITS PARDON FRAMEWORK, BUT LAWYERS LIKE JULIE-ANNE KINCADE ARGUE THE PROCESS CAN BE HARD TO ACCESS FOR PRISONERS WITH POOR LITERACY. IT CAN BE OVERWHELMING FOR THEM TO TRY AND UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED OR TO TRY AND IDENTIFY WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE GONE WRONG. AND SHE BELIEVES SOME PRISONERS MIGHT NOT TRUST GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO REVIEW THEIR CASES. WHETHER IT'S JUSTIFIED OR NOT, THEY WOULDN'T FEEL A CONFIDENCE IN THAT BODY ` THE GOVERNMENT ` ASKING PARLIAMENT IN EFFECT TO OVERTURN THEIR CONVICTIONS, AS THEY WOULD PERCEIVE IT AS PART OF THE SAME INSTITUTION THAT CONVICTED THEM IN THE FIRST PLACE. INVESTIGATORS LIKE TIM MCKINNEL ALSO SAY THE PREROGATIVE OF MERCY PROCESS LACKS THE ABILITY TO FORCE AGENCIES LIKE THE POLICE TO TURN OVER EVIDENCE. WHEN YOU'VE GOT A SMALL TEAM WITH LIMITED FUNDING, FINDING A WAY TO GET ACCESS TO THAT INFORMATION WAS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT. IT'S NO SURPRISE, THEN, THAT TIM MCKINNEL THINKS WE SHOULD HAVE WHAT THEY HAVE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM - AN INDEPENDENT BODY TASKED WITH INVESTIGATING POTENTIAL MISCARRIAGES OF JUSTICE. OF THE CONVICTIONS THAT WE REFER TO THE COURT OF APPEAL, AROUND 2/3 GET QUASHED. SO IN A TYPICAL YEAR THAT WOULD BE 20, OR AROUND ONE A FORTNIGHT. RICHARD FOSTER IS THE HEAD OF THE ENGLISH CRIMINAL CASES REVIEW COMMISSION. WE HAVE QUITE WIDE-REACHING POWERS. WE CAN REQUIRE THE PRODUCTION OF ANY PUBLIC DOCUMENT AND ANY MATERIAL WHICH IS HELD BY A PUBLIC ORGANISATION, WHETHER THAT'S THE POLICE OR THE SECURITY SERVICES. SCOTLAND, WHICH HAS A COMPARABLE POPULATION TO NZ, HAS FOLLOWED ENGLAND'S LEAD. SINCE IT WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1999, THE SCOTTISH CRIMINAL CASES REVIEW COMMISSION HAS COMPLETED MORE THAN 2000 INVESTIGATIONS AND REFERRED 127 CASES TO THE COURTS. THIS HAS LED TO 34 CONVICTIONS BEING QUASHED, EQUAL TO JUST AROUND 26% OF ALL REFERRALS, ALL ACHIEVED WITH AN ANNUAL BUDGET OF ALMOST $2 MILLION. THE POLICE ` ALTHOUGH UNDERSTANDABLY THERE WAS SOME RESISTANCE FOR UNDERSTANDABLE REASONS INITIALLY ` ARE NOW VERY SUPPORTIVE AS WELL. THE SUPPORT FOR A SIMILAR ORGANISATION IN NZ IS GROWING. APART FROM NATIONAL AND ACT, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES WANT ONE. SOME FORMER COPS DO AS WELL. IF YOU'D ASKED ME THIS QUESTION WHEN I WAS A POLICE OFFICER ` WOULD I LIKE TO HAVE AN INDEPENDENT BODY ` I WOULD HAVE SAID NO, CATEGORICALLY. NOW THAT I'VE BEEN OUT FOR TWO YEARS NOW, I LOOK BACK AND REFLECT AND THINK, WELL, ACTUALLY, IT'S PROBABLY A GOOD THING. THE POLICE ASSOCIATION WOULD SUPPORT A BODY, PROVIDED IT WAS OBJECTIVE AND WELL-RESOURCED. OTHER THAN ` I SUPPOSE ` DRAWING MANY OF THESE CASES OUT FOR ANOTHER YEAR OR SO LONGER THAN THEY ARE NOW, THE ASSOCIATION WOULD ACCEPT IT. AND JUSTICE YOUNG WOULD ALSO WELCOME A REVIEW COMMISSION. I'M NOT IN A POSITION TO MAKE AN ASSESSMENT OF A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, WHICH WOULD BE FOR OTHERS, BUT I WOULD BE VERY HAPPY IF THERE WAS A UNIT LIKE THAT SET UP. BUT IT'S NOT THE ONLY MODEL WE COULD FOLLOW. IN THE UNITED STATES SOME PROSECUTORS ARE NOW INVESTIGATING WRONGFUL CONVICTION CLAIMS. I THINK I'M MOTIVATED BY FEAR, SO THE LAST THING I WANT TO DO IS READ A LETTER AND GO, 'EH, THERE'S PROBABLY NOTHING HERE,' AND NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO IT AND THEN FIND OUT YEARS LATER THAT THAT PERSON ACTUALLY WAS INNOCENT. TEXAS PROSECUTOR INGER CHANDLER IS EMPLOYED TO INVESTIGATE INNOCENCE. SHE HEADS WHAT IS CALLED A CONVICTION REVIEW UNIT. IF SHE FINDS A CONVICTION IS UNSAFE, HER ADVICE TO THE CHIEF PROSECUTOR IS CLEAR. WE WOULD JOIN THE DEFENCE IN TRYING TO SEEK A REVERSAL OF THAT CONVICTION AND A FINDING OF ACTUAL INNOCENCE. AROUND 30 CONVICTION REVIEW UNITS HAVE SO FAR BEEN SET UP BY PROSECUTORS IN THE UNITED STATES. COLLECTIVELY THEY'VE HELPED SECURE ALMOST 200 EXONERATIONS. I'M NOT SURE THAT YOU ARE ACTING AS A MINISTER OF JUSTICE IF YOU AREN'T TRYING TO RIGHT THE WRONGS THAT OCCUR IN THE SYSTEM. THOSE CALLING FOR A JUSTICE REFORM SAY ONE OF THE REASONS IT'S NEEDED IS BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THE SYSTEM HAS A REAL INABILITY TO ACCEPT WHEN IT GETS IT WRONG ` THAT EVEN WHEN INNOCENCE IS STARING IT STRAIGHT IN THE FACE, IT LOOKS AWAY. TEINA'S CASE ` IT ENDED UP TAKING FIVE AND HALF YEARS. I THINK IF THINGS HAD BEEN DONE MORE COOPERATIVELY ` COLLABORATIVELY ` THERE'S EVERY REASON TO THINK WE COULD HAVE HAD IT DISPOSED OF AND DEALT WITH WITHIN TWO, TWO AND A HALF YEARS. PROSECUTORS ARE REQUIRED TO CONDUCT THEIR CASES FAIRLY AND RESPONSIBLY, AND LAWYER JULIE-ANNE KINCADE SAYS THAT HAPPENS MOST OF TIME IN THE MORE THAN 5000 CROWN PROSECUTIONS BROUGHT EACH YEAR. BUT SHE SAYS IT'S WHERE THE PUBLIC SPOTLIGHT IS AT ITS MOST INTENSE THAT THERE CAN SOMETIMES BE AN INCLINATION TO PURSUE OR DEFEND A CONVICTION AT ALL COSTS. WHAT WE SEE INSTEAD IS ` IN PARTICULARLY THE HIGH PROFILE CASES ` IS A DOGGED DETERMINATION TO DEFEND WHAT BECOMES INDEFENSIBLE. IN 2013 THE THEN-DEPUTY COMMISSIONER OF POLICE WAS ASKED WHETHER IT WAS POSSIBLE TEINA PORA COULD BE INNOCENT. I GUESS LEGALLY THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE HE HAS INDEED BEEN FOUND GUILTY. THE PRIVY COUNCIL LATER FOUND TEINA PORA'S CONFESSIONS UNRELIABLE DUE TO HIS MENTAL IMPAIRMENT. WE ACCEPT MR PORA IS INNOCENT. THE SYSTEM SIMPLY DIDN'T KNOW AS MUCH ABOUT FOETAL ALCOHOL SPECTRUM DISORDER AS IT DOES NOW. I DON'T THINK WE CAN REGARD THAT AS NECESSARILY A FAILING. BUT WAS IT A FAILING FOR BOTH CROWN LAW AND POLICE TO STILL ARGUE AS RECENTLY AS AUGUST 2015 THAT IT WAS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT MR PORA WAS GUILTY? A TIME WHEN THEY HAD FULL KNOWLEDGE OF HIS MENTAL IMPAIRMENT. HOW COULD SUCH A CHASM EXIST BETWEEN THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THEIR CASE AND THE LATER FINDINGS OF A JUDGE THAT THERE WAS NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THAT MR PORA WAS AT THE CRIME SCENE? WAS IT A FAILING THAT THEY SO VIGOROUSLY OPPOSED HIS COMPENSATION CLAIM FOR SPENDING 22 YEARS WRONGFULLY IMPRISONED? FOR MISSING THE FIRST TWO DECADES OF HIS DAUGHTER'S LIFE? WERE THEY PUTTING INSTITUTIONAL PRIDE OVER THE PURSUIT OF TRUTH? THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS WE WANTED TO ASK EITHER CROWN LAW OR THE POLICE. BOTH DECLINED TO DISCUSS THE CASE. I CANNOT SEE HOW THEY COULD HAVE HAD ANY CONVICTION IN THEMSELVES TO CARRY ON UPHOLDING IT. RIGHTING THE WRONG IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING, AND THEN LEARNING FROM YOUR MISTAKES AND MAKING SURE IT DOESN'T HAPPEN AGAIN. IT'S TRUE THAT MEN LIKE ARTHUR ALLAN THOMAS, DAVID DOUGHERTY, TEINA PORA AND AARON FARMER DID FIND FREEDOM, EXONERATION AND COMPENSATION. WE SHOULD RECOMMEND TO THE GOVERNOR GENERAL THAT HE EXERCISE THE PREROGATIVE OF MERCY. I ACKNOWLEDGE AND I APOLOGISE TO MR DOUGHERTY. FOR THE DEVASTATING IMPACT THE WRONGFUL CONVICTION AND IMPRISONMENT HAS HAD ON YOUR LIFE. FAIRLY COMPENSATES MR FARMER. BUT DO THESE MEN EVER REALLY FIND JUSTICE? CAN MONEY EVER COMPENSATE FOR FREEDOM OR FAMILY LOST? VIVIENNE DIVORCED ME WHILE WAS I STILL IN PAREPAREMO AND THAT WAS THE HARDEST TIMES. MY FATHER NEVER LIVED TO SEE THE DAY THAT MY NAME WAS CLEARED OF THESE CHARGES. HE DIED OF CANCER WHILE I WAS IN PRISON. BUT TO LOCK AWAY A MAN FOR SOMETHING HE DIDN'T DO, AND LET HIM GO THROUGH HELL AND GO THROUGH THE SHIT I HAD TO LIVE WITH. MONEY COMPENSATES. IT DOESN'T REPLACE, AND THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE. AND THE DAMAGE THAT IS DONE WILL BE THE DAMAGE FOREVER. AND FOR WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS IN CASES LIKE AARON'S, WHERE THE REAL OFFENDER IS YET TO BE CAUGHT, JUSTICE ALSO ESCAPES THE VICTIMS. THERE IS STILL SOMEONE OUT THERE THAT HAS COMMITTED A CRIME AND GOT AWAY WITH IT. AND THAT STILL BOTHERS YOU? IT DOES. BUT DOES IT BOTHER THE REST OF US ENOUGH TO ASK, 'IS THERE MORE THE JUSTICE SYSTEM COULD DO TO PREVENT THIS HAPPENING?' BECAUSE HERE IS ANOTHER CASE WHERE A GUILTY MAN HAS YET TO FACE JUSTICE, BUT AN INNOCENT MAN HAS STILL SUFFERED. WELL, CROWN LAW DECLINED TO DISCUSS PORA'S CASE, BUT DID TELL US ` AND I QUOTE ` 'WE MUST HAVE A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT RESIST RELOOKING AT MATTERS 'BECAUSE OF THE EFFORT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUT INTO HEARING OF THE CRIMINAL MATTER.' AND THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SAID, 'LOOK, PEOPLE ARE EASILY ABLE TO APPLY 'FOR THE ROYAL PREROGATIVE OF MERCY.' IT SAYS A LACK OF POWER TO FORCE AGENCIES TO DISCLOSE INFORMATION HAS NOT INHIBITED INVESTIGATIONS AND COMPARED TO THE SCOTTISH SYSTEM, OUR JUSTICE AND MERCY PROCESS OFFERS STRONG APPEAL RIGHTS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF A CONVICTION BEING OVERTURNED. DO STAY WITH US. AFTER THE BREAK, OUR PANEL ` TOBY MANHIRE, BERNARD HICKEY AND OUR VERY OWN PATRICK GOWER. THAT'S ME. THAT'S ME. WELCOME BACK. NEWS OF HELEN KELLY'S DEATH THIS WEEK LED TO AN OUTPOURING OF TRIBUTES. THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL OF TRADE UNIONS WAS DIAGNOSED WITH CANCER LAST YEAR. I SPOKE TO HER IN AUGUST ABOUT HER WORK, MEDICINAL CANNABIS AND SEIZING THE DAY. BUT WHAT I WOULD LIKE IS MY DOCTOR TO BE TRAINED IN CANNABIS PRODUCTS, FOR HIM OR HER TO ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND EACH ONE AND SAY, 'THIS IS THE BEST ONE FOR YOU. THIS IS ONE DURING THE DAY IF YOU DON'T WANT TO GET STONED,' YOU KNOW? IDEALLY, THERE'D BE A MARKET AND I'D BE ABLE TO GET PRESCRIBED. SO YOU'D LIKE DOCTORS TO HAVE THE POWER TO PRESCRIBE THIS IF THEY FEEL THAT THEIR PATIENT WOULD BENEFIT, NOT THE ASSOCIATE MINISTER OF HEALTH? NO. I'M NOT QUITE AT THE POINT WHERE I'M HANDING OVER MY HEALTH PROGNOSIS TO PETER DUNNE. SO DO YOU THINK THERE'LL BE A FOURTH-TERM NATIONAL GOVERNMENT? NO, I DON'T. I THINK LABOUR WILL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION. IT'LL BE A LABOUR-GREEN` SERIOUSLY? I DO. I THINK LABOUR-GREEN WILL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION. YOU KNOW, SOME SORT OF COALITION OF THOSE PARTIES. I THINK THERE'S A CHANGE ON, YEAH. PEOPLE WOULD SAY YOU'RE AN OPTIMISTIC PERSON. WHAT HAVE I GOT TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT? I WON'T EVEN SEE IT, RIGHT? I WON'T BE HERE TO VOTE FOR IT. BUT THAT'S WHAT I BELIEVE. I'M JUST AS GUESSING AS ANYONE ELSE, BUT MY FEELING IS THAT PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE HARD SIDE OF THESE AUSTERITY MEASURES, OF THESE CUTS, OF THESE HOUSING ISSUES. WOULD YOU BE STANDING AT THE NEXT ELECTION IF YOU WEREN'T SICK? YES, I WOULD. I WAS GOING TO STAND AT THE LAST ELECTION. THANK GOODNESS I DIDN'T. SO THAT'S UNFINISHED BUSINESS FOR YOU? WELL, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE FINISHED. IT'S NOT MY BE ALL AND END ALL POLITICAL AMBITION. I'M NOT DYING AS A TRAGIC FIGURE WHO NEVER GOT TO RUN THE COUNTRY. YOU CONTINUE TO FIGHT FOR WORKERS' RIGHTS. DO YOU EVER FEEL THAT ACTUALLY, 'NAH, I JUST WANT TO LOUNGE AROUND, WANT TO LOUNGE AROUND AND SPEND SOME TIME WITH MY FAMILY'? YOU'RE A LONG TIME DEAD, RIGHT? (LAUGHS) I DON'T WANT TO LOUNGE AROUND. THAT'S THE LAST THING I WANT TO DO. I WANT ENERGY AND TO DO THE STUFF I CARE ABOUT. AND I SPEND A LOT OF TIME WITH MY FAMILY. HONESTLY, MY FAMILY'S JUST COME FROM AROUND THE WORLD, THEY'VE BEEN AVAILABLE. I'VE HAD A WONDERFUL YEAR. THIS IS A CRAZY THING TO SAY BECAUSE I'M DYING AND I'M SICK, BUT I'VE CAUGHT UP WITH PEOPLE, OLD SCHOOL MATES, YOU KNOW, WE GOT MARRIED, BLAH BLAH BLAH. SO IT'S A REAL MIXED TIME, ACTUALLY. AND SO IT'S NOT LIKE I'M SACRIFICING ANYTHING TO DO THIS WORK. THIS IS WORK I DO. I'M JOINED NOW BY OUR PANEL ` THE SPINOFF'S TOBY MANHIRE, BERNARD HICKEY FROM HIVE NEWS AND PADDY. THE THING THAT STRIKES ME ABOUT LOOKING BACK AT THAT INTERVIEW, PADDY ` SHE'S SO OPTIMISTIC IN FIGHTING FOR EVERYBODY WHILE SHE WAS FIGHTING FOR HER LIFE. YOU MUST HAVE SOME GOOD HELEN KELLY STORIES. WELL, I REMEMBER ONE TIME ACTUALLY SITTING ON THIS PANEL THAT` AND SHE WON'T MIND ME SAYING THIS ` UH, SHE ABSOLUTELY RARKED ME UP, TOTALLY GOT UNDER MY SKIN DISCUSSING THE DOTCOM-HONE HARAWIRA DEAL THAT I CALL HER HELEN KELLY. UH, IF I'D KNOWN HER MIDDLE NAME, I WAS THAT ANGRY AT HER, I WOULD'VE USED IT AS WELL, LIKE A MOTHER USES WITH A CHILD. AND THAT'S JUST WHAT SHE WAS. BUT WATCHING THAT INTERVIEW IS EXTRAORDINARY TO MY MIND. LUNG CANCER ` I KNOW A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IT. IT'S A REALLY EVIL DISEASE. AND FOR HER TO FIND THE ENERGY TO DO INTERVIEWS LIKE THAT AND CAMPAIGN LIKE THAT` YEAH, SHE KEPT GOING. I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT SHE'S THE NZER OF THE YEAR, BUT YOU NEED LOVE AROUND YOU TO DO STUFF LIKE THAT, AND I ACTUALLY THINK THAT HER HUSBAND, STEVE, AND HER SON, DYLAN, TO PROVIDE THE LOVE AND SUPPORT FOR HER TO ACT LIKE THAT, THEY'RE MY NZERS OF THE YEAR. YEAH. BIG SHOES TO FILL. WHAT DO YOU THINK HER LEGACY IS, BERNARD? WELL, SHE'S DONE AN AWFUL LOT AROUND HEALTH AND SAFETY, IN PARTICULAR. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TRIBUTES, A LOT OF THE DISCUSSION, FROM BOTH THE WORKER SIDE AND THE EMPLOYER SIDE, IS THAT HER TIRELESS CAMPAIGNING AROUND FORESTRY AND AROUND AGRICULTURE HAS MADE A REAL DIFFERENCE. AND AT PIKE RIVER. AND THAT HEALTH AND SAFETY LEGISLATION, I MEAN, IF IT SAVES MANY LIVES AND STOPS A LOT OF INJURIES, THAT IS A GREAT TRIBUTE. AND ONCE SHE GOT SICK, TOBY, CANNABIS WAS ANOTHER THING THAT SHE OBVIOUSLY SPOKE ABOUT REALLY OPENLY. YEAH, SHE TOTALLY THREW HERSELF INTO THAT. IT WAS REALLY IMPRESSIVE. AS SHE DID EVERYTHING. I MEAN, IT'S JUST AMAZING TO THINK` 52, IT'S PRETTY YOUNG. YEAH, WAY TOO YOUNG. SHE HAD A LOT OF PUBLIC LIFE TO GIVE. YOU KNOW, SHE WOULD'VE BEEN A SENIOR MINISTER ` IF LABOUR EVER FIND A WAY TO GET INTO GOVERNMENT ` MAYBE THE LEADER OF IT. YOU KNOW, I MEAN, IT'S A TERRIBLY SAD` TERRIBLY SAD LOSS. HEY, LET'S MOVE ON TO IMMIGRATION NUMBERS. UM, TALKING BOTH TO THE MINISTER THERE AND TO JAMES SHAW. THE GOVERNMENT'S PLAN, BERNARD, BASICALLY IS TALKING ABOUT 5%` DROPPING OFF 5% PERMANENT RESIDENCE. IS THAT REALLY GONNA DO ANYTHING? I MEAN, PADDY ASKED HIM, AND HE DIVED AROUND THAT QUESTION. BUT IS IT GONNA UNCLOG OUR ROADS? IS IT GOING TO MEAN MORE SPACE IN SCHOOLS? IS IT GOING TO LOWER HOUSING COSTS? IS IT ENOUGH? WELL, IT'S GONNA SEND A BIG SIGNAL, PARTICULARLY TO INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AND PEOPLE COMING HERE ON TEMPORARY WORK VISAS, THAT THERE'S NOT AN EASY PATHWAY TO RESIDENCY. SO THE 160 POINTS ` THAT'S A RECORD HIGH. YEAH. > AND THE CHANGES TO THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE REQUIREMENTS, ACCORDING TO THE IMMIGRATION LAWYERS THAT I TALKED TO, IS GONNA MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE WHO'VE COME HERE ON A RELATIVELY LOW-LEVEL INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION. MUCH HARDER TO GET PERMANENT RESIDENCY. SO THAT PATHWAY TO RESIDENCY IS GONNA BE HARDER. IT ALSO MAY MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE TRADIES AND THE CONSTRUCTION WORKERS THAT ARE GONNA BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS IN AUCKLAND, BECAUSE, AGAIN, 160 POINTS ` HARDER TO GET THAT PERMANENT RESIDENCY. TOBY, WINSTON PETERS MUST'VE BEEN CHARGING AROUND, FIST-PUMPING, WHEN THIS CAME OUT? WELL, HE'S` IT'S HIS WIN, ISN'T IT? I MEAN, IN TERMS OF THE GREENS' ANNOUNCEMENT OR THE WOODHOUSE ANNOUNCEMENT? WELL, BOTH, REALLY. I MEAN, THE GREENS' ONE SOUNDED A LITTLE BIT LIKE IT WAS DESIGNED FOR WINSTON PETERS, TO SOME DEGREE. I MEAN, YOU COULD SEE HIM GETTING ON BOARD WITH THAT. I MEAN, THE WOODHOUSE ONE CERTAINLY IS` I MEAN, HE DENIES IT ALL DAY LONG, BUT IT SEEMS PRETTY CLEARLY A POLITICAL ANNOUNCEMENT. MM. SPIKE THE GUNS. I MEAN, I THINK IT LOOKED LIKE WINSTON` WINSTON WOODHOUSE ` BASHING THE GRANNIES AND THE GRANDDADS. THAT WAS WINSTON PETERS STUFF STRAIGHT OFF THE BAT, WITH NO EVIDENCE AS WELL. IF YOU'D SAID THAT POLICY ON THE HOOF ABOUT IMMIGRATION WHACKING THE GRANNIES AND GRANDDADS, THAT'S WINSTON WOODHOUSE. SO HOW MUCH OF A BACKDOWN IS IT FOR THE GOVERNMENT, DO YOU THINK? OH, IT'S A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THEY PRESENT IT AS A FEW TWEAKS, BUT PARTICULARLY THE BIG INCREASE IN THE POINTS, THE CHANGE IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE REQUIREMENTS AND THE COMING REVIEW AROUND STUDENT MIGRATION AND TEMPORARY MIGRATION ` THAT IS A BIG ISSUE. AND YOU CAN SEE THE GOVERNMENT'S WATCHING THE RISING POLL RATINGS FOR WINSTON PETERS, THE RESONANCE THAT HE'S GETTING WITH THAT MESSAGE OUT IN THE PROVINCES, AND GOING, 'WE ACTUALLY NEED TO THINK ABOUT HOW THIS OPERATES.' AND THAT PATHWAY THAT YOU TALK ABOUT, WHEN STUDENTS COME IN, WHICH IS SOMETHING THEY'RE LOOKING AT LATER IN THE YEAR, THAT IS A HUGE, HUGE THING IN THE IMMIGRATION STORY. HE MENTIONED` HE SAID IT WAS ONLY ABOUT 20%. 20% IS QUITE A LOT. I MEAN, PROBABLY 20% OF PEOPLE WHO GO AND STUDY AT OTAGO DON'T STAY THERE, YOU KNOW. IT'S A BIG DEAL. AND MORE THAN 70% OF THE SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS FOR PERMANENT RESIDENCY COME FROM PEOPLE WHO WERE HERE ON TEMPORARY WORK VISAS AND HERE AS INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS. I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLITICS OF THIS, A LOT OF THIS IS ABOUT WINSTON PETERS, AND I THINK JOHN KEY AND STEVEN JOYCE AT THE MOMENT PROBABLY AREN'T THAT WORRIED ABOUT THE LABOUR PARTY; THEY'RE MORE WORRIED ABOUT A COLLAPSE IN LABOUR'S VOTE AND WINSTON PETERS GOING TO 12%, 15%, 16%, COMING IN WITH 15 TO 20 MPs. SO WHAT YOU'RE SEEING HERE IS THEM STARTING TO CUT WINSTON OFF AT THE PASS. BUT WITH WHAT TOBY WAS SAYING THERE, THAT HE THOUGHT JAMES SHAW WAS SOUNDING A BIT LIKE HER WAS DELIVERING A NZ FIRST POLICY ` HE'S TALKING 17,000 NET, VERSUS WHAT WE'VE CURRENTLY GOT, ABOUT 70,000. THAT IS A MASSIVE DROP. AND GIVEN THE ECONOMY IS BEING LARGELY ` A BIG CHUNK ` DRIVEN BY THOSE IMMIGRANTS, WHERE'S THAT GONNA LEAVE US? YEAH, I THINK THIS IS A REALLY INTERESTING REFRAMING OF THE DEBATE. WINSTON IS OBVIOUSLY ARGUING ALMOST ON A CULTURAL SENSE ` WE CAN'T ALLOW ALL THESE FOREIGNERS TO COME IN. THIS IS A DIFFERENT WAY OF LOOKING AT IT, SAYING, 'ACTUALLY, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MIGRATION WE'VE SEEN, 'IT DOESN'T ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE ECONOMY AND WAGES THAT MUCH. 'AND IF YOU WERE TO DIAL IT BACK A BIT ` IN A VERY TWEAKY SORT OF WAY ` 'BUT IF YOU DIALLED IT BACK, WOULD IT ACTUALLY HURT THE ECONOMY THAT MUCH?' AND IT'S INTERESTING THE DEBATE NOW ABOUT MIGRATION ` WE ALL ASSUME THAT IT'S GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY ` BUT THE RESEARCH IS NOT CLEAR THAT IT'S ACTUALLY BENEFITING EVERYONE. MM. AND THE AUSTRALIANS, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY HAD A PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION REVIEW INTO WHETHER AN INCREASE IN MIGRATION ACTUALLY IMPROVES THE ECONOMY, AND THEY FOUND IT DOESN'T, REALLY. OHH, YOU KNOW, IT'S A BACKDOWN, AND IT'S` YOU KNOW, THIS IS THIS ASPECT OF THE KEY GOVERNMENT THAT I CALL THE 'SELL YOUR GRANDMOTHER' ASPECT OF IT ` THEY WOULD SELL THEIR GRANDMOTHER IF POLLING SHOWED THAT THEY'D HAVE TO SELL HER... BUT WHAT ABOUT THE GREENS' POLICY, THEN? UH, THAT'S JUST CLASSIC GREENS ` THEY HAVEN'T THOUGHT IT THROUGH. THEY'RE GONNA SMASH OUT A WHOLE LOT OF AGREEMENTS FOR WORKING HOLIDAY VISAS, THE WHOLE WORKS. THERESA MAY AND STUFF LIKE THAT WON'T HAVE TO BOTHER BANNING KIWIS, COS JAMES SHAW` JIMMY SHAW'S GONNA DO IT FOR US. THE OE'S OVER UNDER THAT GUY'S POLICY. (CHUCKLES) ALL RIGHT. THEY FORGOT TO ASK INFOMETRICS TO WORK A FEW THINGS OUT. SO TYPICAL GREENS. BUT I'VE GOT AN ANNOUNCEMENT` HANG ON, PADDY. YOU'VE HAD YOUR LAST WORD. WE'RE OUT OF TIME. GOTTA GO. WE WILL BE BACK AFTER THE BREAK WITH WHAT'S MAKING NEWS NEXT WEEK. MIKE WESLEY-SMITH ON CALLS FOR A CRIMINAL CASE REVIEW COMMISSION. WELCOME BACK. YOU'RE WITH 'THE NATION' AND OUR PANEL. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT SURPLUS THIS WEEK. MUCH BIGGER THAN EXPECTED, BERNARD. WHAT SHOULD WE BE SPENDING IT ON? WELL, THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOOKING AT INFRASTRUCTURE, HOUSING, POTENTIALLY HEALTH AND EDUCATION, BUT, OF COURSE, THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE TAX CUTS? AND THEN THERE'LL BE THIS DEBATE. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING IT WITH LABOUR'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF A THOUSAND EXTRA POLICE FOR $180 MILLION. THERE'LL BE A BIT OF A LOLLY SCRAMBLE ` PEOPLE SAYING, 'WELL, HERE IT COMES. '1.8 BILLION AND GROWING MUCH FASTER THAN WE ALL THOUGHT. 'LET'S SPEND IT ON THE THING WE WANT TO SPEND IT ON. ARE YOU BETTING ON A LOLLY SCRAMBLE, TOBY? YEAH, IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING HOW MUCH THEY PUT INTO THE BUDGET AND HOW MUCH THEY HOLD OFF FOR ELECTION ANNOUNCEMENTS, BUT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A YEAR OF THE LAUREL AND HARDY ROUTINE WITH JOHN KEY BOUNCING AROUND SAYING THERE ARE GOING TO BE TAX CUTS AND BILL ENGLISH SAYING WE'VE GOT TO BE CAREFUL PUTTING THOSE PALMS OVER THE EXCHEQUER AND STUFF, AND THEN THERE ARE BOUND TO BE SOME. I THINK THE CRUCIAL ASPECT IN THIS IS, AND I'VE ACTUALLY GOT A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT TO MAKE HERE ON 'THE NATION',... OF COURSE YOU HAVE. (LAUGHS) ...THE ELECTION DATE WILL BE SEPTEMBER 23 2018, EVERYBODY. THAT'S THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT. THANK YOU, PRIME MINISTER. I THINK YOU MEAN 2017. I THINK YOU MEAN 2017, ACTUALLY. CORRECTION TO THAT. 2018. 2018. 2017. 2017, IT IS. AS THE POLITICAL EDITOR OF NEWSHUB... JEEZ. ANYWAY, THE POINT I'M TRYING TO MAKE` LAUGHTER THE POINT I'M TRYING TO MAKE IS WE'RE IN A ONE-YEAR COUNTDOWN NOW, WELL AND TRULY, AND, YES, THE LOLLY SCRAMBLE'S GOING TO COME OUT. YES, THE FLIP-FLOPS BY GOVERNMENT, THAT IS ACTUALLY MAKES ITS BREAD BY FLIP-FLOPPING, WILL BECOME EVEN THICKER AND FASTER. WE'RE SEEING TWO OR THREE THIS WEEK ` BUILDING HOUSES, IMMIGRATION AND POLICE NUMBERS, WHICH WILL GET AN INCREASE. IT'S ALL ON. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN'S BASICALLY STARTED. YES, BECAUSE, I MEAN, THE OTHER THING THAT CAME OUT THIS WEEK IS HOUSING NZ NEEDING A TOP-UP, IN ESSENCE. YEAH. I MEAN, THEY'VE GOT 30,000 HOUSES THEY NEED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS OR SO, AND THEY'VE ONLY BEEN BUILDING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED A YEAR. SO A HUGE RAMP UP. AND THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO PUT SOME OF THAT BIG SURPLUS ASIDE TO HELP GET THESE HOUSES BUILT IN AUCKLAND BECAUSE THE PRIVATE SECTOR STILL AIN'T DOING IT. WE'VE ONLY GOT 9000, 10,000 HOUSES BEING BUILT, AND IT NEEDS TO BE 13,000, 14,000 JUST TO KEEP UP. ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT THAT IS THEY HAD RUN OUT OF CASH BEFORE BILL ENGLISH WAS TALKING ABOUT THOSE EXTRA HOUSES. THAT'S NOT ACTUALLY FACTORED INTO WHAT THEY'RE SAYING THERE, AND THIS GIGANTIC MAD SCIENTIST EXPERIMENT THAT BILL ENGLISH HAS TRIED TO RUN IN HOUSING NZ HAS EFFECTIVELY BLOWN UP IN HIS FACE. WELL, THEY NOW NEED TO RAMP IT UP, SO THEY'VE GOT THE TAMAKI THING AND NORTHCOTE, AND NOW THEY NEED TO DO IT IN LOTS OF OTHER PLACES IN AUCKLAND. AND YOU'RE RIGHT ` THERE'S AN AWFUL LOT OF WORK THAT HAS TO BE DONE AND PLANNING AND PLANS FOR EXTRA CASH, WHICH IN THE NEXT YEAR THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME FRANTIC WORK. AND ALL THE INFRASTRUCTURE IN AUCKLAND, AND THEN ACROSS THE PUBLIC SECTOR, PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN STAYING SHTUM ON DEMANDS FOR EXTRA MONEY BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, WE'RE POST FINANCIAL CRISIS, POST CHRISTCHURCH REBUILD, NOW THEY SEE THE SURPLUS COMING DOWN THE TRACK, AND THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE SO MODEST. AND IT'S RISING REAL FAST. SO THE NUMBER ` 1.8 BILLION ` WAS MORE THAN DOUBLE WHAT WE EXPECTED IN MAY, SO IN FIVE MONTHS, THE SURPLUS DOUBLED. AND WITH AN ECONOMY GROWING AT 4.5% GDP-WISE AND HUGE SORT OF FISCAL DRAG, THAT'S POWERING SOME BIG NUMBERS IN NEXT YEAR. THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE MONEY TO THROW DOWN. HEY, LET'S MOVE ON TO CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS. WE SAW MIKE WESLEY-SMITH'S PIECE THERE ABOUT MISCARRIAGES OF JUSTICE. POLITICAL PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILDING TO HAVE SOME KIND OF CRIMINAL CASE REVIEW COMMISSIONED, BUT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T SEEM TO WANT A BAR OF IT. WHERE DO YOU RECKON THE PUBLIC OPINION LIES ON IT? WELL, I THINK AFTER TEINA PORA AND THE POLITICAL CONSENSUS AT LEAST ON THE OTHER SIDE AND WHEN YOU HEAR THE SORTS OF COMMENTS IN MIKE'S STORY FROM THE POLICE MEMBERS AND THE POLICE ASSOCIATION, THAT SHOULD RETHINK` RETHINK THE GOVERNMENT'S OPPOSITION TO IT. MM. PADDY? SEEMS LIKE A TOTAL NO-BRAINER TO ME TO HAVE A CRIMINAL CASES COMMISSION THAT CAN GET DOCUMENTS OUT OF AGENCIES LIKE THE POLICE AND WHATEVER FOR A PRETTY LIMITED SUM. I MEAN, IF WE'VE GOT THINGS LIKE A MINISTRY FOR WOMEN, IF WE'VE GOT THINGS LIKE A COMMISSIONER FOR CHILDREN AND THE ENVIRONMENT, WHY CAN'T WE HAVE A REALLY PRACTICAL CRIMINAL CASES COMMISSION LIKE THIS? WELL, I SUPPOSE THE COUNTER TO THAT, PEOPLE WOULD ARGUE THAT THOSE GROUP OF CASES ` TEINA PORA, ARTHUR ALLAN THOMAS, DAVID DOUGHERTY ` THEY'RE ALL OUT; THE SYSTEM WORKED` SO SOME OF THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ADVOCATING FOR THIS CRIMINAL REVIEW COMMISSION, INCLUDING TIM MCKINNEL, WHO WAS ON THE TRACK, AND JARROD GILBERT, THEY'VE SET UP THIS OTHER ORGANISATION CALLED THE PUBLIC INTEREST PROJECT, WHICH DOESN'T HAVE VERY MUCH MONEY BUT IS INVITING PEOPLE TO` WHO THINK THEY'VE HAD WRONGFUL CONVICTIONS. YEAH. THEY'VE HAD ALREADY 80 SUBMISSIONS. NOW, EVEN IF JUST ONE OF THOSE IS A MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE, THAT SEEMS A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD ARGUMENT FOR USING A LITTLE BIT OF THAT SURPLUS TO BUILD THIS COMMISSION. PARTICULARLY NOW THE PRIVY COUNCIL IS NOT AVAILABLE TO A LOT OF PEOPLE AND IT SEEMED TO WORK ON A COUPLE OF CASES, MAYBE WE NEED SOMETHING LIKE THAT ` OUR OWN VERSION OF A PRIVY COUNCIL ON THESE SORTS OF CASES. OK, WE'LL LEAVE IT THERE. HERE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WILL BE MAKING THE NEWS NEXT WEEK. FIJIAN PRIME MINISTER FRANK BAINIMARAMA WILL BE VISITING. HE'LL MEET WITH PRIME MINISTER JOHN KEY AND WITH LABOUR LEADER ANDREW LITTLE. 3000 JUNIOR DOCTORS GO ON STRIKE ON TUESDAY, PROTESTING OVER LONG WORKING HOURS. AND THE SALVATION ARMY IS RELEASING A MAJOR REPORT ON WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT THE EMPLOYMENT NEEDS OF SCHOOL LEAVERS. BUT THAT'S ALL FROM US FOR NOW. SEE YOU NEXT WEEKEND. DO HAVE A GREAT DAY. CAPTIONS BY ABLE. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ CAPTIONS WERE MADE POSSIBLE WITH FUNDING FROM NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2016