MORENA, GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M GREG BOYED. ALL I CAN SAY IS THAT I GAVE IT EVERYTHING I HAD; I LEFT NOTHING IN THE TANK. AND SO BEGAN AN EXTRAORDINARY WEEK IN POLITICS. BY THURSDAY, THE CONTEST WAS OVER AND BILL ENGLISH WAS CROWNED THE PRESUMPTIVE NEW LEADER. WHAT KIND OF PRIME MINISTER WILL HE BE? WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION? AND WAS THAT A SMILE ON ANDREW LITTLE'S FACE THIS WEEK? WE'LL SPEAK TO NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER THEN ` WHENA OWEN VISITS NATIONAL PARTY HEARTLAND. THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO WILL VOTE BLUE. WHO DID THEY WANT AS LEADER? WELL, IF THAT'S ALL YOU'VE GOT TO CHOOSE FROM, JOHN ENGLISH, PROBABLY. I THINK PHIL ENGLISH. PHIL? BILL. BILL. (LAUGHS) DUE TO THE LIVE NATURE OF Q+A, WE APOLOGISE FOR THE LACK OF CAPTIONS FOR SOME ITEMS. AND WE'LL HAVE IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS FROM OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER FROM AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY; FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT, PR PRACTITIONER MICHELLE BOAG; MAORI PARTY CO-LEADER MARAMA FOX; AND MATT MCCARTEN, LABOUR ADVISER, BACK IN AUCKLAND AFTER A STINT AS CHIEF OF STAFF IN WELLINGTON. BUT FIRST HERE'S POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN WITH NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER AND NEXT FINANCE MINISTER, STEVEN JOYCE. Stephen Joyce, thank you for joining us. How much has the ground shifted now? It is a different game. It has changed the game for the next election. I'm not going to presume that we are going to win now. It is going to be decided whenever the election is held next year. There are lots of opportunities out of this. A great new leadership team. The Risk before was same old, same old. We have two put ourselves forward as the best option for New Zealanders. we have heard a lot this week about the old kitchen cabinet. What has changed about that kitchen cabinet? I would say we should not presume that this is the actual state of events. There is a senior group of ministers. There are lots of ministers who have not been in that group. To suggest that everything runs through that group is wrong. It runs through the Cabinet system. There are plenty of people like Amy and and Tolley who are part of that group frontbench change? He has to make that call. He has to be confirmed by the caucus tomorrow. Paula has to be confirmed as deputy. One of the first things he looks it will be the make-up of his cabinet. What about the overall direction of the government? Are we going to see a more driven government that wants to push through less government intervention? One of the hallmarks of this government is that it has been sensible, predictable, pragmatic. We all have a national party view of life ` encouraging the individual to succeed. I do not think Bill is not in step with that at all. He is definitely in step with that. John Key was the great salesman. You do not have that any more. It will be different. It won't be the same, different people in different roles. Paula has huge communication skills. Bill does too, but he has been happy to sit in the background. If Paula has too much of the limelight that's not going to work, is it? Bill is going to run it as a team. He has always been happy for me to have my say. He will take that approach as leader. He will fashion his own way. Let us start with superannuation. That promise was fundamental. Bill this week has said that he is not going to make that promise. Are you in the same camp? We will not discuss policy today. We have caucus tomorrow. We have a bit of a stock take coming up. That is interesting. Are you saying that you are going to rewrite the script here? You are under pressure on housing here. Could all That be back on the table? We were conscious that after eight years all this needs to be done anyway. You are under massive pressure with housing. I think we are making very good progress. You are saying that there is an opportunity to do something with housing. I am not talking about any portfolio, because that would be presumptive of me. Caucus has not met yet to confirm the new leaders. A new cabinet is going to be put together. We were are going to put forward a collective view. After eight years in government, you are saying that you have the opportunity here to say that you have made mistakes. We have always said to ourselves, actually getting into an election for a fourth term, you have to go through a process of Head checking yourselves and your policies. Circumstances change. We were going to do it anyway. You probably would not have talked about it if we were not having a new leader. Is this something that you want to bring to the role of finance Minister? Can you give us a sense of flavour that you would bring to the job that is different? I do not think it will be massively different. For the eight years I have been MP, I have been his associate finance minister. We understand each other very well. I have contributed to the finance portfolio. I do not think you will see dramatic change in that respect. I do not think the country is looking for dramatic change. You will see some changes of emphasis on the margins. I want the opportunity to think about that as well. This time last week I was going to be the economic development Minister heading into Next year. Things change now. It is important that you do not forget the fact that the money that you spend comes from hard-working Kiwis. That is the reality. People forget that sometimes. You have to keep thinking about that. As we have always said, we have four things that we are really focused on. Paying off Our debts is one. Investing in society and infrastructure is also important. Kaikoura has reminded us of that. Tax cut is one of the things in the minx as it was last week. The word of the morning as presumptive. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE PROGRAMME ` WE DID HAVE AN INTERVIEW WITH OUR LIKELY NEW PRIME MINISTER BILL ENGLISH, BUT HE PULLED OUT LATE LAST WEEK. HIS LIKELY DEPUTY, PAULA BENNETT, ALSO DECLINED TO APPEAR. WE'LL HEAR FROM THE PANEL AFTER THE BREAK, THEN CORIN WILL BE BACK WITH ACT LEADER DAVID SEYMOUR, AND LATER THE OPPOSITION PARTIES ` LABOUR AND THE GREENS. IN THE MEANTIME, SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER, YOU CAN EMAIL US, OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF, EACH TEXT COSTS 50 CENTS. STAY WITH US, WE'RE BACK AFTER THE BREAK. Welcome back. LET US chat with our panel. I do not think anyone saw this coming. Matt, did you think anything like this was going to happen? Are you relieved? It has changed the dynamics of the election. I think now that people start to see that this will be an even contest. Let me just explain about NMP. You have got the government parties and the opposition parties. They have always been close. People will recognise that more now. John Key was so Far ahead. Now they will see that Bill English and Andrew Little, contenders for the Prime Minister ship, it has opened up. It looked reasonably bloodless. I think Jonathan Coleman was the most realistic challenger. I do not think they never had it under control. Yes, the backbench came out and express themselves. It was great that they came out to speak. Some of them are very impressive. I do not think they were ever going to throw things wide open And themselves apart. Bill English is the logical choice for us. He has been there with John Key. He understands where we come from. If it had not been for Bill, we may not have had such a big impact with te whanauora. Everyone is cling on to Paula's Maori roots now. We hope that will benefit us now. What about your place? In the next national government, it would be good. I am a little bit edgy. We have the mitigating Marama Hui every now and then. I would like to get stuff done. When you have a seat at the table, you want to effect change. Stephen Joyce has done pretty well. His job has got a lot harder. Yes. Finances very demanding in itself. It is a very different style of campaign that is being promised. John Key was the personification of the party brand. That will stick in the minds of party voters. Their differences in style will be very obvious. I am sure the government will very quickly Bill and Bill English's back story. He is well-known in Parliament, but not so much nationally. It is really important for people to get to know Bill English, even though he has been There a long time. Paula has a very vibrant image. She is known for being feisty, straight. She called a spade a spade. Sometimes she calls it something a lot more than that what is Bill known for? A great thinker and someone who has really driven social investment. People do know Bill. He does have that image of somebody who is in control, because he has delivered the things that we have needed from an economic perspective. That will be interesting to see with Stephen Joyce. he is going from a position where he has dispensed cash To having to be in charge of it. There are bound to be some casualties. There are some tough calls for Bill English to make. Nick Miller, Will he have to step to the side? What about Gerry Brownlee? Murray McCully. Gone. He has got to make those changes in those senior roles and bring some of those younger guys through. It is not going to be easy. who are these Names Chris Bishop. if you put some of those names in, how will you give the backbench More of a voice? When do you do it? Now or after Christmas break? With Joyce, he is talking about new and fresh. There is nothing new and fresh. Everyone is just moving up one. They need to get rid of some of the Retirees. You are taking the guy who took them to their worst defeat ever and saying that he is the best. They have bought up Joyce and Paula, Paula to bring up the vibrancy. When she was the Minister of social development, she got through by having labours training support to get them the benefit. As soon as she became a minister, she got rid of it. She may be bubbly and charming, but she has made choices that have affected people negatively. The Maori party does represent the Maori voice. While we talk about the reshuffle of the national party, if you have a look at the Labour Party, we see the brown tail of the Labour Party sitting on the backbench. 2002 was an outgoing tide. Helen Clark lost two elections before she became prime Minister. I do not think Bill will lose an election. 2002 was radically different. That was the year that NZ first, United future and act all benefited. National were able to bring it back in subsequent elections. Labour's vote has dived. We are back with the panel later. ACT LEADER DAVID SEYMOUR, NATIONAL'S SUPPORT PARTNER, JOINS ME NOW. ARE YOU IN THIS NEW-LOOK CABINET? It is quite a large change. I think there will be a very good prime minister. I do not think he will make 45%. John Key was a singular phenomenon. Coalitions become the order of the day. It is time for active setup. The Winston factor. Do you think you can build a gap in Winston? I think he has the extraordinary ability to stay in Parliament without achieving anything. There are younger New Zealanders who are wanting action, change. They are sick of paying such high taxes. Are you saying that you are going to put the guns on the government? People are saying that Bill English is going to be a better prime minister then Andrew Little. What is the agenda going to be? Stephen Joyce has said that they don't know. What are they going to do on tax? I think Act is in a good position to put pressure on the government to get stuff done. I think there are people out there who are comfortable with lower taxes, a better business environment in a more prosperous New Zealand. My appeal is that act has always been a Liberal party. Our basic outlook is that as long as you are not harming anyone else, you should be able to do what you want. You are running against the tide. How are you going to attract people? The answer to the housing market is to bring up the land use planning laws. Government is doing that. Not very effectively. there are approach has been very cynical. they've been making lots of noise about it without actually achieving Very much. That is an issue that comes back to classic Orthodox economics. Thank you for your time. COMING UP ` LABOUR LEADER ANDREW LITTLE WITH GREEN PARTY CO-LEADER ANDREW LITTLE, BUT FIRST, WHENA OWEN REPORTS FROM THE BLUE HEARTLAND TO FIND OUT WHO NATIONAL SUPPORTERS ARE BACKING FOR LEADER. IT'S REALLY REALLY INTERESTING. I'VE GOT THE MEN GOING FOR BILL ENGLISH, AND I'VE GOT THE LADIES GOING FOR JUDITH COLLINS. NATIONAL VOTERS HAVE HAD ALMOST A WEEK TO GET OVER THE NEWS THAT THEIR POPULAR PRIME MINISTER HAS RESIGNED. SO WHAT DO TRUE BLUE VOTERS THINK ABOUT BILL ENGLISH? WE SENT WHENA OWEN TO A NATIONAL HEARTLAND ` THE VAST, MAINLY RURAL ELECTORATE OF WAIRARAPA ` TO FIND OUT HOW VOTERS THERE ARE FEELING ABOUT A POST-KEY NATIONAL. LAZY MUSIC IN THE BACKBLOCKS OF A LOYAL NATIONAL ELECTORATE, THERE'S A LITTLE RESISTANCE TO DISCUSSING THE SUCCESSOR TO JOHN KEY; THEY'RE STILL PROCESSING HIS SHOCK RESIGNATION. # IF YOU EVER # CHANGE YOUR MIND # ABOUT LEAVING, # LEAVING ME BEHIND... # IT WAS VERY SAD. I FEEL LIKE A LOSS. A LOSS TO` REALLY? > YES, YES. # BRING YOUR SWEET LOVING, # BRING IT ON HOME TO ME. # JUST OUTSIDE GREYTOWN, WE ASKED WAIRARAPA'S BIGGEST FRUIT EXPORTER, JOHN VAN VLIET, HOW HE FELT ABOUT BILL ENGLISH. WELL, OBVIOUSLY JOHN KEY WOULD BE MY NUMBER ONE. HMM, STILL IN DENIAL. WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIME MINISTER IN WAITING, BILL ENGLISH? WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT HIM? BUGGER ALL. (LAUGHS) HE'S GOT SIX KIDS AND HE WAS A BIT STRESSED LAST TIME HE STOOD FOR IT, BUT, UM, I THINK HE'S PROBABLY THE LOGICAL MAN FOR THE JOB NOW. THEY'VE SEEN YOU, AND THEY'RE SAYING, 'WHO ARE THOSE PEOPLE? 'THEY MUST BE FROM WELLINGTON.' FEDERATED FARMERS DAIRY REP FOR THE WAIRARAPA CHRIS ENGEL RECKONS OTHER FARMERS IN THE REGION WILL FEEL REASSURED ABOUT ENGLISH'S RURAL BACKGROUND. I MEAN, PRESUME EVERYONE'S TRADITIONALLY BLUE, AND HE'S THE BROTHER OF A CEO OF FEDERATED FARMERS, SO I THINK HE WOULD HAVE A LOT OF EMPATHY WITH FARMING. YOU KNOW, I REALLY DID UNDERESTIMATE THE EFFECT THE DROUGHT WOULD HAVE ON OUR ECONOMY. AND THAT FAMILIAR FACE AROUND POLITICS GOT SHOPPERS' VOTES IN MASTERTON. WELL, IF THAT'S ALL YOU'VE GOT TO CHOOSE FROM, JOHN ENGLISH, PROBABLY. I THINK PHIL ENGLISH. PHIL? UH, BILL. BILL! CARTERTON'S MAYOR, JOHN BOOTH, RAN HIS OWN LOCAL POLL JUST BEFORE BILL ENGLISH BECOME THE ONLY CONTENDER. IT WAS REALLY REALLY INTERESTING. I'VE GOT THE MEN GOING FOR BILL ENGLISH, AND I'VE GOT THE LADIES GOING FOR JUDITH COLLINS. THEY SEE BILL AS A STABLE, 'STEADY AS YOU GO', AS WE'VE HAD UNDER JOHN KEY, WHO I THINK HAS DONE A MARVELLOUS JOB. THE LADIES ARE SAYING THEY WANT JUDITH COLLINS BECAUSE SHE'S OUT THERE AND SHE'LL GO FOR IT ` A BREATH OF FRESH AIR. AND AS SOMEONE SAID TO ME, IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT WITH AN ELECTION COMING UP LATER ON NEXT YEAR, THAT MAYBE NATIONAL WILL NEED A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THINGS. ORCHARDIST JOHN VAN VLIET WANTS A GOVERNMENT THAT WILL OPEN DOORS TO NEW MARKETS. I THINK WE NEED A PROACTIVE GOVERNMENT TO MAKE SURE OUR EXPORTS CARRY ON GOING OVERSEAS, SO THAT'S PUSHING OVERSEAS COUNTRIES, INCLUDING AUSTRALIANS. BUT MOSTLY ALLOWING US INTO ENGLAND, AGAIN WITH BREXIT, AND INTO EUROPE. SO, WILL A BILL ENGLISH-LED GOVERNMENT HELP THIS APPLE EXPORTER? I THINK HE'D BE OPEN FOR IT, HE'D BE DEFINITELY OPEN FOR IT, BUT WHETHER OR NOT HE'S GOT ENOUGH CLOUT. I THINK JOHN KEY'S HAD THAT CHARISMA. JOHN KEY'S DEPARTURE WAS THE BAD NEWS IN A FUNNY OLD WEEK DOWN ON THE FARM. FOR CHRIS ENGEL, THE GOOD NEWS WAS THE JUMP IN GLOBAL DAIRY PRICES, BUT HE STILL WANTS THE GOVERNMENT TO BE AWARE IT'S TOUGH IN DAIRYING. SO, WE DUG A BIG FINANCIAL HOLE, SO IT DOESN'T` EVEN THOUGH IT'S COMING UP, IT DOESN'T MEAN` IT'S LIKE A DROUGHT. THE FIRST RAIN DOESN'T MEAN YOU'VE RECOVERED. IT'LL TAKE A FEW YEARS TO COME OUT OF THIS. BUT ALL UP, THE WAIRARAPA'S ON A BIT OF A BURN AT THE MOMENT; PEOPLE ARE MOVING TO THE AREA; THERE'S A LOT OF BUILDING; SMALL BUSINESSES ARE BUZZING, BUT THERE ARE HIGH NUMBERS OF BENEFICIARIES. SO YOU GETTING THOSE TOPS OFF, OR CAN'T YOU REACH THEM? YET THIS ORCHARDIST CAN'T GET GOOD LOCAL WORKERS. HE'S DEPENDENT ON HIS 55-STRONG CREW OF SOLOMON ISLAND RSE STAFF. HE AGREES WITH BILL ENGLISH'S CONTROVERSIAL COMMENT A YEAR AGO THAT MANY YOUNG JOBSEEKERS ARE HOPELESS. VAN VLIET WAS IMPRESSED WITH PAULA BENNETT, THE LIKELY DEPUTY PM, WHEN SHE VISITED THE ORCHARD TO DISCUSS HIS EMPLOYMENT ISSUES. SHE WAS INQUIRING INTO, YOU KNOW, WHY WE COULDN'T GET WORKERS, AND WHY NZ CAN'T GET WORKERS. I SAID, 'BASICALLY COS THEY'RE ON THE DOLE.' EARLIER THIS YEAR, CARTERTON REALLY TURNED IT ON FOR OUTGOING PRIME MINISTER JOHN KEY. HE ARRIVED BY HORSE AND SURREY TO UNVEIL A STATUE. EVERYONE TURNED UP, THE MAYOR RECALLS, TO SEE A MAN WHO WILL BE A VERY HARD ACT TO FOLLOW. I THINK YOU'VE GOTTA BE SOMEWHAT EFFERVESCENT, OUT THERE, AND, YOU KNOW, WITH A BIT OF CHARISMA, AS JOHN KEY HAS. AND I MUST ADMIT I'M STILL, UH, STILL A BIT GOBSMACKED THAT HE'S DONE WHAT HE'S DONE WHEN HE HAS. BUT AT LEAST THOSE IN THIS ELECTORATE LAMENTING THE PM'S DEPARTURE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT FROM THE FACT THAT THE MAN JOHN KEY WANTED TO SUCCEED HIM WILL BE PRIME MINISTER TOMORROW. JOINING ME NOW ` LABOUR LEADER ANDREW LITTLE AND GREEN CO-LEADER JAMES SHAW. Andrew Lytle, you position yourself as someone who wasn't a show pony To go up against John Key. if you're a young couple in Auckland, you still struggle to afford your own home. If you're homeless, putting Bill English and Paula Bennett at the top of the national government, It isn't going to change. you must be excited about the change in the dynamic. John Key was a very popular leader. the issues haven't gone away. The people who have missed out and be left behind for the last eight years As to lift out. The new guys offer nothing. James Shaw, do you accept there is some rejuvenation for national? There have given themselves a chance to offer something new. Bill English has been the philosophical policy English in the national government for the last eight years, So the idea all be radically different is highly unlikely, Especially with someone like Stephen Joyce and finance. he made it clear they are looking at it reset. They have that opportunity. Let's see if they take it. The one thing the government has been singularly focused on has been staying in government. Grey managerialism in which there is no real vision for the country. They have been papering over the cracks when they should have been building houses. Andrew Lytle, we had David Seymour say he doesn't think national can get to 45. Are you buying for Winston Peters? there is a whole heap of issues out there. We know housing is front and central. The Mount Roskill by election results what tipped it was housing. those problems are still there. When we can get out and campaign hard on those things, We do very well. he is talking about a reset. Your job is just got harder. does anybody take that seriously? Bill English and Paula Bennett have been that two of the troika of housing ministers And nothing is improved. Stephen Joyce is anything really going to change? he has a big war chest, James. He has 2 billion+ a year extra and infrastructure spending. It could, but the reason why Viv got money in the bank at the moment As because in real terms budgets in health, education, conservation, police Have been declining over the course of the last eight years. That's starting to bite, particularly in the regions. The money is by cutting core public services to the bone. going back to the point about Winston. DSD Winston's role increasing in this environment? It's hard to see Winston with 10% not being the kingmaker. Every election for the last 20 years there's been a great game about what will Winston do? Next year will be a change the government election. Do you want status quo or do you want change? Do you want past or future? If New Zealand first wants to be part of changing the government, that's great. do you think you can bring Winston on board? he is pretty clear he doesn't want to give the appearance of doing deals all cuddling up to anybody. He wants to cut his own path. New Zealanders will have a choice next year And it will be that do we accept 41,000 homeless? Do we accept it's okay for freezing school funding? Is it acceptable that a 96-year-old woman Should have her home care cut? There is a real choice for New Zealanders next year. There are two parties committed to real change. I wonder if we will get choice around social issues. James Shaw, your party is announced a policy run marijuana. You would imagine Bill English won't go anywhere near that. Are you signalling a change in that area? we have long supported medicinal use of cannabis. That's why Damien O'Connor has a bill in the ballot ready to go. We have a different group than the greens on a broader use of cannabis. I have a personal view about more liberal access for young people Because I know of the long-term harmful effects that even modest use can have. you talked about a referendum at one point not that long ago. it was put to me that if there was a referendum - That's always a possibility. But when it comes to drug reform, it's a conscious issue. James Shaw, you might have a hard task be to convince labour of going down that road. Corin, the whole point of memorandum of understanding is to build a strong relationship With a likely coalition partner in advance of the election. One of the things we learnt from the last election As voters really want to see parties working closely together. We've got policies that are identical, Some that are similar in some that are different. The whole point of memorandum of understanding is to get into the practice Of working together effectively as a credible government before we get into government. David Shearer is departure, You don't want to see a by-election. will see when David gets back what the arrangements have to be. He tells me he has to be in place in South Sudan by the end of January. His resignation has to take effect by that time. You're looking at roughly July is six months from them. Having a by-election in the same year as a general election - I don't think many voters will be particularly fussed about that. We are practised and tried and we can succeed when we campaign. I say we are ready, bring it on. are you guys presenting yourself effectively as leader and deputy leader in waiting? the MOU crystallised what was already happening. We as parties are committed to one central thing we want to get people into homes, James sure, if you can pole half the size of labour, You would expect to be deputy, wouldn't you? We haven't talked about it to tell you the honest truth. It's more important to me that we get the policy changes we want. We want to be a leader in climate change not a follower. We want to fix the housing crisis. The actual job titles are less important to us than the policies. We want to make a transformational difference to this country. It is time for a government that has some actual vision. what's the view one deputy? We'll see how it goes. The only two jobs that are set in stone other Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance because they go to the party that is the largest. Anything else that happens in that cabinet is a function of what happens on election day. James Shaw, Andrew little, thank you very much. We have a camera coming. He is running. Will try that again. Back to you, Greg THANKS, CORIN. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT WITH OUR PANEL AFTER THE BREAK. Welcome back to Q and A. we asked Winston Peters to appear on the show but he declined. I think it's very interesting that they are talking about post-election government. The issue is whether or not there would ever be able to be in a position to do that. One of the things that struck me Was when Andrew little talks, he talks about representing the left behind. That's important. That's part of their core constituency. But there is much more than that. The last 17 years of been fought in the centre ground in New Zealand politics. Andrew little made the remarkable admission this week that he didn't know what the centre ground was. He doesn't believe the centre ground exists. It's important he does understand that Because between now and the election he has to increase the parties support significantly. He has to do what John Key and Helen Clark did Which has moved the party into the centre ground While still representing the people who are traditional labours supporters. this has been raised a number of times. This is a good opportunity to address it. In the centre, The centre is wherever the right or the left go. Wherever they move around it is the middle. If you go off to the right is like in the US, the centre then moves. So you have to go on policy. What are the policies which middle New Zealand want to be addressed? Don't get fascinated of catching this mythical person Which goes back and forward. The middle is where the elections are won. The centre is the person who was in the centre of the vote. What addresses the policies? The policies are how to chase the mythical person instead of saying one of the key issues. Of course they have to address the middle. I think it's hilarious Because Matt should be the leader. Because you have articulated it better than your leader. New Zealand want a change. Maori constituents want to change. they are waiting for an alternative governance model. But they are not seeing one. On the left they have gotcha politics they want strong stable policies that shift people to the left. Left Wayne, right wing policies are the same bird. the challenges they were up against an extremely popular Prime Minister who crowded them out. They have an opportunity now for voters to have another look at them and look at Andrew little. he has a chance to get in front of boaters, but he has to connect to voters And connect to people who aren't always interested in policy. here's the thing. Andrew little thanks because John Key is out of the way That if he just says the thing he's always been saying that people will listen. What he hasn't recognised is that he also needs to reset. this sort of stuff is talking about is the stuff that voters want. He is using the same rhetoric he was using last week. He needs to move his rhetoric to - whether he likes it or not - Where the centre is. If he says the same old stuff that appeals to his hard left base And denies there is a centre block of votes, then he won't make any progress. All talk at once the thing about it as it has to be intuitive. You have to understand where those people on middle incomes Who have been voting John Key for the last six or nine years, Who voted for Helen Clark and then switched, Who don't have any strong loyalties to any one party, you have to understand what their needs are. And it doesn't come out with Andrew Little at the moment. It's something that comes deep inside. It's all very well defusing the words, but he has to actually empathise With the aspiration of the middle ground in New Zealand. except you look at people's past, What he has been as a leader of working people At the professionals in the trades are aspirational. That's his make-up. When you say he needs to be more like that, that's where he is. Michelle will nod her head because she's never been in that world. I'd from Glen Eden, Matt. what we have now and I think that you got it right, Is that with John Key, no one got a look in. What we have now is people see two potential prime ministers - One warming the seat for now - And I think the race will be That after last week there was the " how do you beat this guy?" Now you have two leaders. he does have to step up and let people know more about him. He has to sell history much better. he will get that opportunity now because people will want it. They will look at Bell and look at Andrew and think tell us more. He has to establish credibility with the voting public. Otherwise he doesn't have the credibility to form a government. That's a big task between now and the election is to do that. they have to get over 30. They will campaign much better than they did in the last campaign. I think that is a vain hope on the part Because when you said, Corin, we've got a prime minister and a deputy here, that leaves no room for Winston. Winston is in play. absolutely. but those two guys, if either of them increase their vote, It's probably going to be also at the expense of Winston. In that case, Winston if he is sitting there with Andrew Little, And James sure, he's thinking, we do I go? One of them has to be dislodged. his upright exit stage left, Raymond. the remarkable thing about Winston Peters as he draws support from both the left and the right in the centre ground. So he's a guy that will drive a very hard bargain. He would do that with whichever party appears to be forming a government. We have forgotten Maori politics in this. Andrew Little has had some faux pas is around Maori politics. He is told of his Maori Mps. He is not let them vote for charter schools. Winston is talking about the iwi Kiwi. he is voting against proportional representation that Maori want. Winston is turning his back on Maori. And Andrew L has a disconnect with Mari. They are relying on the Maori Mps from the Labour Party who are being hamstrung by the leader. putting the Maori politics into the equation, it is wide open. how likely is an early election or snap election next year? my feeling is they are leaning away from it now. I think July would be at the earliest but that would be winter. Michelle will remember Bill Wentz in winter 2002. Helen decided. my feeling is they will go for a budget and then pushed through into later in the year. I think it's less likely now than it was. John Key would have had an inclination to go early. The latest in election can be held this November 18. I think will go almost right through the year. He'll be aware that voters are wary of early elections. We've had a couple in the postwar period The Muldoon one and the clark one. During the time she campaigned, Helen Clark support went down 10 percentage points. People are very suspicious of early elections because they feel there must be something that is being hidden. labour is one them twice. T I think Bill English is likely to go as close to full term as possible. a Shearer by-election, how likely is that ? if you're thinking about a longer term time for the election, then there would be a by-election. This is the dynamics that are being played up. Good to see Nikki Kay was looking very healthy the other night But that would be in the calculations as well. at that point the government would call an early election. it's good for labour is intact? by-elections, yes. It will be another by-election which national will lose because of the support from the middle of New Zealand. You talk nonsense. But your whanau so I let it go. all talk at once I want to whip around all of you on this. Who knew this last week? A prediction for next year how you think this will play out, Corin. Bill English cannot maintain key light levels. There are some shops coming globally that will rock this government. I think the two or three weeks after the election will be where it's all going to happen. There will be negotiations, no question. It will be very tight I reckon. I think that's right. I think what labour and greens of cedars these are stable alternative. Winston will keep his cards close to his chest. But we been saying that for 20 years now. The rest of the time he wasn't needed. With English, it makes up people's minds at least. This options. He would never have done it with key. People would see it is too real of Turner tips for prime minister. People will be watching the Maori political seats. They are the real seats that will be up for change. The Maori party are positioning themselves to take out all of those seats. With an alliance of some sort. Make sure we can come out fighting. Maori in this country want an independent voice. they don't want to be tied to somebody else. We realistically would be prepared to go with whoever comes through in the end Because we need to be at the table so we can have independent voice in this country. the thing that hasn't changed over the last week Is that national will still be the biggest party. That will actually feature very importantly In the make-up of the next government. Prof Miller. I think going for � term with the new leader you can expect that national support will drop somewhat. Labour is bound to gain some ground between now and the election. I personally think Winston Peters will play a really strategic role come October/November next year. thank you all very much. OUR LAST POLITICAL HISTORY FOR THE YEAR AFTER THE BREAK ` BILL ENGLISH INTERVIEWED BY PAUL HOLMES WHEN HE BECAME NATIONAL LEADER FIRST TIME AROUND. YOUR FEEDBACK NOW. ROGER GRAY TWEETED... IAN PATTISON TWEETED... ARRAN STEVENSON POSTED ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE ` LEWIS HOLDEN TWEETED... BILL ENGLISH HAD HIS FIRST GO AT BEING NATIONAL LEADER 15 YEARS AGO IN VERY DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES, OF COURSE. NATIONAL WAS IN OPPOSITION, AND PRIME MINISTER HELEN CLARK WAS INTO HER SECOND YEAR OF WHAT WOULD BE A 9-YEAR ADMINISTRATION. HIS LEADERSHIP WAS OVER WITHIN 2 YEARS AND A YEAR AFTER NATIONAL'S WORST-EVER ELECTORAL DEFEAT, BUT HERE'S BILL ENGLISH AND HIS WIFE, MARY, IN 2001, ON THE NIGHT HE BECAME LEADER, INTERVIEWED BY PAUL HOLMES. IT IS A VERY TOUGH BUSINESS. I MEAN, POLITICS IS FLESH AND BLOOD. I'VE WORKED WITH JENNY SHIPLEY FOR 14 YEARS. I CAME INTO PARLIAMENT, I WAS A JUNIOR MINISTER WHEN SHE WAS A MINISTER OF HEALTH, AND IT'S THE SAME FOR EVERYBODY. THESE ARE TOUGH CHOICES, BUT IN THE END, SHE WOULD ACKNOWLEDGE, JUST AS EVERYONE ELSE DOES, THAT THE ISSUES ARE BIGGER THAN THE PEOPLE AND THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY IS BIGGER THAN THE PEOPLE. BUT HOW ARE YOU GONNA WIN AUCKLAND? AUCKLANDERS HAVE A SET OF THINGS THAT CONCERN THEM, PARTICULARLY TO DO WITH THEIR CONGESTION, THEIR MESS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, ALL THE INFRASTRUCTURE PRESSURES THERE. I'VE SPENT A LOT OF TIME IN AUCKLAND OVER THE LAST FOUR OR FIVE YEARS, AND I'VE ACTUALLY FOUND THAT THEY'RE A BIT LESS CONCERNED WITH YOUR PERSONAL ADDRESS AND A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER YOU'RE PRACTICAL, WHETHER YOU'RE OPEN, WHETHER YOU'RE NOT TOO POLITICAL ABOUT EVERYTHING, WHETHER YOU CAN SOLVE THEIR PROBLEMS. WHO ARE YOU? WHO ARE YOU? I AM THE SON OF A FARMING FAMILY FROM SOUTHLAND. UH, I'VE BEEN BROUGHT UP ON SOME PRETTY STRONG PRINCIPLES AND VALUES, BASED ON, UH, THE CATHOLIC FAITH AND RELIGION, BASED ON THE PRACTICALITIES OF FARMING AND BASED ON THE ENQUIRING MINDS OF TWO VERY INTELLIGENT PARENTS. I'VE HAD A LOT OF EXPERIENCE IN POLITICS, BEEN A MINISTER OF FINANCE, BEEN A MINISTER OF HEALTH, HAD A WONDERFUL LOOK AT A WONDERFUL COUNTRY. AND I'M READY TO GO. WAKA HUIA IS NEXT. REMEMBER, Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.35 PM. THIS IS OUR LAST PROGRAMME FOR THE YEAR, AND THANKS TO NZ ON AIR, WE'LL BE BACK IN 2017 WITH ANOTHER 40 EPISODES OF POLITICAL CURRENT AFFAIRS. IT'S GOING TO BE A FASCINATING YEAR. THANKS FOR WATCHING, AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A FOR 2016 ` ANOTHER MEMORABLE YEAR. HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY HOLIDAY. CAPTIONS BY SHRUTIKA GUNANAYAGAM AND JESSICA BOELL. CAPTIONS WERE MADE POSSIBLE WITH FUNDING FROM NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2016