GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO THE NATION. I'M LISA OWEN. AND I'M PATRICK GOWER. TODAY, BILL ENGLISH ON HIS FIRST FEW WEEKS IN THE TOP JOB. I LEAP OUT OF BED ENJOYING IT, UH, LOOKING FORWARD TO IT AND GETTING A LOT OF ENERGY AND POSITIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE PUBLIC. WE'LL ASK ENGLISH ABOUT HOUSING, IMMIGRATION, SUPERANNUATION AND HOW LONG HE PLANS ON STICKING AROUND. AND I WILL TALK TO REPUBLICAN COMMENTATOR EVAN SIEGFRIED, A HUGE CRITIC OF DONALD TRUMP BEFORE THE ELECTION. WHAT DOES HE THINK NOW ABOUT HOW THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATE OF AMERICA IS GOING? AND WE'LL WRAP UP THE WEEK IN POLITICS WITH OUR PANEL, GUYON ESPINER AND TRACY WATKINS, AND OUR IN-HOUSE FUNNY GUYS JEREMY CORBETT AND PAUL EGO. CAPTIONS WERE MADE POSSIBLE WITH FUNDING FROM NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017 IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US TODAY. WE ARE EXCITED TO BE BACK. I'M ACTUALLY REALLY, REALLY, REALLY EXCITED. (LAUGHS) LOOK, WE LOVE HEARING FROM YOU GUYS. YOU KNOW THAT, AND IT'S SO GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK AS WELL. SO LET US KNOW THOUGHTS ON FACEBOOK OR ON TWITTER. THE DETAILS ARE ON THE SCREEN NOW. AND IF YOU'RE ON TWITTER, YOU CAN FOLLOW ALONG WITH OUR PANEL, MORGAN GODFREY AND JENNA BURN. THEY'RE ON #NATIONNZ. WELL, NEW ZEALAND'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT NOW TO HOW IT DID WHEN WE SIGNED OFF LAST YEAR. IT CERTAINLY DOES. THERE WAS A GUY CALLED JOHN KEY IN PLACE WHO HAD A SEEMINGLY UNASSAILABLE HOLD ON THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP UNTIL HE QUIT, UNTIL HE PULLED THE PIN AND JUMPED OUT OF THE PLACE. AND THAT'S LEFT BILL ENGLISH WITH BIG SHOES TO FILL, SO I SAT DOWN WITH HIM FOR HIS FIRST LONG-FORM TV INTERVIEW SINCE BECOMING PRIME MINISTER AND ASKED HIM WHAT HE'S DONE SO FAR TO DIFFERENTIATE HIMSELF FROM HIS FORMER BOSS. WELL, LOOK, I THINK THAT WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE YEAR. LOOK, THIS GOVERNMENT IS UNDER MY LEADERSHIP AS A COMBINATION OF THE THINGS THAT WE'VE HAD IN TRAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME, WHETHER IT'S INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WE'RE OPENING, NEW SCHOOLS, NEW ROADS, AND SOME FRESH THINKING AND A BIT OF A RESET THAT'S FOCUSING BEYOND THE NEXT ELECTION. SO, ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE TERM 'IMPOSTER SYNDROME'? NO, I'M NOT. OK. WHERE PEOPLE THINK, 'HMM, I'M NOT SUPPOSED TO BE HERE.' BECAUSE I'M KIND OF WONDERING, DO YOU LEAP OUT OF THE BED EVERY MORNING AND THINK, 'YIPPEE, I'M THE PRIME MINISTER,' OR DO YOU THINK, 'OH, THIS IS A LITTLE BIT SCARY'? NO, I LEAP OUT OF BED ENJOYING IT, LOOKING FORWARD TO IT AND GETTING A LOT OF ENERGY AND POSITIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE PUBLIC AND LEADING A TEAM THAT IS RUNNING SEAMLESSLY FROM WHERE IT WAS UNDER THE PREVIOUS PRIME MINISTER. BUT IS NONE OF THAT DAUNTING? NO, NOT PARTICULARLY. I'VE BEEN CLOSE TO IT FOR A LONG TIME WITH JOHN KEY, AND IT'S SUCH A FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY. I MEAN, NEW ZEALAND'S HAD SOME PRETTY DAUNTING PROBLEMS, PARTICULARLY GOING BACK TO RECESSION, EARTHQUAKES AND SO ON. NOW THERE'S SOME REAL CONFIDENCE AND DIRECTION BECAUSE OF ALL THE HARD WORK THAT'S BEEN DONE. SO THE OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF US ARE SO POSITIVE. AND THAT'S NOT DAUNTING; THAT'S ENERGISING. SO WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF YOU, I'M WONDERING ` WHAT WILL SUCCESS LOOK LIKE FOR YOU AS PRIME MINISTER? LOOK, I THINK IT WILL BE AN ONGOING GROWING ECONOMY WITH THE INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT THAT GROWTH. THERE'S ALWAYS RISKS WITH AN ECONOMY. WE HAVE TO KEEP THAT IN MIND, PARTICULARLY OFF SHORE, BUT A SENSE OF RESILIENCE AND CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE ECONOMY. AND SECONDLY, EVERYONE SHARING IN THE BENEFITS OF THAT, AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE IN A RELATIVELY UNIQUE POSITION IN NEW ZEALAND WITH STRONG GOVERNMENT BOOKS AND JOB CREATION TO SPREAD THE BENEFITS OF GROWTH. WHEN YOU MENTION OFF SHORE, ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT DONALD TRUMP SPECIFICALLY? OH, THERE'S A WHOLE LIST OF THINGS ` THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY, THE CHINESE ECONOMY, THINGS NEED TO GO WELL THERE FOR US; BREXIT, AMERICAN PROTECTIONISM. ALL OF THESE THINGS REPRESENT RISK. HOW MUCH OF A RISK DO YOU THINK DONALD TRUMP IS? WELL, LOOK, IT'S THE POLICIES THAT WILL MATTER. PROBABLY THE AREA WHERE WE'VE GOT THE MOST CONCERN IS TRADE. THAT IF THEY DO ACTUALLY PUT IN PLACE SIGNIFICANT PROTECTIONIST MEASURES, THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON US AND ON OUR TRADING PARTNERS. I WANT TO LOOK AT THIS WEEK, BECAUSE IT'S BEEN A BUSY WEEK FOR YOU. IMMIGRATION NUMBERS EQUAL TO A CITY THE SIZE OF ROTORUA; AVERAGE AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICE STILL OVER A MILLION BUCKS; AND THE HOMELESS NUMBERS AND THOSE HOMELESS HOUSING GRANTS ARE A LOT HIGHER THAN YOU PREDICTED. ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE ISSUES UNDER JOHN KEY, SO WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? WELL, IMPLEMENTING THE POLICIES THAT WE'VE PUT IN PLACE. I MEAN, SOME OF THIS IS ABOUT SUCCESS. SO THE FACT IS WE ALWAYS HAVE ANTICIPATED THAT NEW ZEALANDERS WOULD START LEAVING AGAIN. IT'S NOT HAPPENING. THERE'S BEEN AN EXPECTATION THOSE IMMIGRATION NUMBERS WOULD DROP, BUT BECAUSE OF OUR RELATIVELY UNIQUE POSITIVE OUTLOOK, PEOPLE JUST KEEP TURNING UP, AND KIWIS KEEP STAYING HOME. SO OUR REAL CHALLENGE IS RESPONDING TO THAT GROWTH AND INVESTING TO SUPPORT IT SO THAT PEOPLE CAN HAVE THE QUALITY OF LIFE HERE THAT THEY COME FOR. BUT IF YOU ACTUALLY CRUNCH THOSE NUMBERS, MORE KIWIS LEFT IN THOSE NUMBERS THAN RETURNED HOME. WE'RE MINUS 1700-ODD KIWIS. SO THEY'RE NOT YOUR ISSUE. WELL, THEY'RE A POSITIVE RESULT, BECAUSE IT USED TO BE MINUS 40,000, MINUS 39,000, BUT NOW IT'S COME RIGHT UP CLOSE TO ZERO. BUT THIS IS ALL JUST PART OF A NEW ZEALAND THAT'S GOT GROWTH AND GOT CONFIDENCE AND GOT MOMENTUM, AND OUR CHALLENGE, WHICH WE'RE RESPONDING TO, IS THE INVESTMENT THAT SUPPORTS IT. WE OPENED THE KAPITI EXPRESSWAY JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO; WE'LL OPEN WATERVIEW. THESE ARE ALL THE KINDS OF INFRASTRUCTURE THAT YOU NEED. BIG INVESTMENT OF SCHOOLS FOR MORE KIDS FOR BETTER EDUCATION. THE THING IS, THOUGH, VOTERS ARE DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT HOUSE PRICES. SOME OF THEM ARE DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT IMMIGRATION LEVELS AND HOMELESSNESS AS WELL. SO I'M WONDERING ` WHAT IS YOUR ONE NEW IDEA TO HELP SOLVE THOSE DEEPLY INGRAINED PROBLEMS? WE'RE IMPLEMENTING THE POLICIES THAT HAVE BEEN IN TRAIN FOR SOME TIME, BECAUSE THERE'S NO ONE NEW IDEA THAT SUDDENLY MAKES HOUSES APPEAR ON SUBDIVISIONS. THAT'S A LONG, COMPLEX PROCESS. SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS STRONG` IT'S NOT A SILVER BULLET I'M ASKING YOU FOR, BUT I'M ASKING ` DO YOU HAVE A SINGLE NEW IDEA THAT YOU ARE GOING TO PURSUE IN THESE AREAS? WELL, WE'RE GOING TO, IN THE FIRST PLACE, IMPLEMENT WHAT'S IN TRAIN, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT'S PRODUCING THE 10,000 NEW HOUSES IN AUCKLAND AS WE WORK WITH THE COUNCIL. THE NEXT STEP IS THE HOUSING INFRASTRUCTURE FUND ` A BILLION DOLLARS ON THE TABLE FOR COUNCILS TO BRING PROJECTS FORWARD. NOW, THEY'RE FINDING THAT A BIT OF A TEST, AND SO ARE WE, TO FIND THE PROJECTS THAT WILL INDUCE MORE HOUSING SUPPLY SOONER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. BUT THOSE ARE THINGS, PRIME MINISTER, THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN ANNOUNCED. DO YOU HAVE A NEW IDEA THAT YOU'RE GOING TO PURSUE IN THIS ELECTION YEAR? WELL, YOU'LL HAVE TO WAIT THROUGH ELECTION YEAR, BUT WHAT I'M OUTLINING HERE IS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IDEAS THAT TAKE SOME TIME TO TURN INTO THE REALITY OF HOUSES ON THE GROUND, AND THAT'S WHAT MATTERS THE MOST. WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE IN THIS ELECTION YEAR IS THE NEXT REPORT OF THE PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION AROUND CHANGING OUR WHOLE PLANNING REGIME. THERE'S PRETTY BROAD CONSENSUS THAT IT SHOULD CHANGE, AND THROUGH ELECTION YEAR YOU'LL SEE SOME OF THAT START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE THING IS THIS NEW IDEA THING IS IMPORTANT, BECAUSE YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU WILL NOT WORK WITH LABOUR OR GREENS BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO NEW IDEAS. PEOPLE MIGHT NOT WANT TO WORK WITH YOU BECAUSE, SOME CRITICS WOULD SAY, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY NEW IDEAS EITHER. WELL, IN THE CASE OF HOUSING, WE WANT TO COMPLETELY RENEW THE PLANNING SYSTEM. NOW, THAT'S A FAIRLY BIG IDEA. THERE'S A SURPRISING CONSENSUS THAT THAT'S WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN, AND IF WE'RE RE-ELECTED, THAT'S WHAT WE'LL DO. SO, I MEAN, THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT'S BEEN TALKING ABOUT RMA REFORM FOR HOW LONG? SINCE WE'VE BEEN THE GOVERNMENT. RIGHT. SO HOW DO YOU MAKE IT HAPPEN, THEN? WELL, WE'VE HAD AN INTENSIVE PROCESS OF GETTING OUR CURRENT CHANGES THROUGH THE PARLIAMENT. NOW, SOME WE GOT THROUGH EARLY HAVE REALLY PAID OFF. SO BIG PROJECTS THAT USED TO TAKE SIX TO SEVEN YEARS NOW GET APPROVED IN A YEAR. THAT'S WHY WE CAN OPEN WATERVIEW NOW. AS WE LOOK AHEAD, THERE'S A CONSENSUS THAT WE NEED TO CHANGE THE SYSTEM SO THAT MORE HOUSES HAPPEN MORE QUICKLY WHEN THERE'S STRONGER DEMAND AND THAT WE DON'T HAVE THE SAME PRESSURE ON HOUSEHOLDS ABOUT HOME OWNERSHIP COSTS AND RENTAL COSTS. SO CHANGE IT SPECIFICALLY IN WHAT WAY? GIVE ME ONE SOLID EXAMPLE. OH, WELL, WE NEED TO CHANGE THE PLANNING REGIME SO THAT IT TAKES ACCOUNT OF HOUSE PRICES AND LAND PRICES. IN THE PAST, IT NEVER HAS. PRICES CAN BE GOING UP; NOTHING CHANGES ABOUT THE PLANNING. THAT'S WHY WE'RE DEALING WITH SOME OF THE REAL CHALLENGES IN THE HOUSING MARKET RIGHT NOW. WE CAN CHANGE THAT. SO PART OF THE HOUSING ISSUE IS IMMIGRATION ` RECORD LEVELS. ARE YOU PREPARED TO CHANGE THE SETTINGS AGAIN BEFORE THE ELECTION, IF THOSE RECORD LEVELS CONTINUE? WELL, THEY'RE ALWAYS UNDER DISCUSSION, SO WE ANNOUNCED SOME CHANGES IN THE LATTER PART OF LAST YEAR. BUT THEY MADE NO CHANGE TO THE QUARTER JUST GONE. YOU'RE STILL HITTING RECORD NUMBERS. SO ARE YOU GOING TO TWEAK ANY MORE, DO YOU THINK? WELL, WE'RE CONSIDERING MORE CHANGES, AND THAT WILL BECOME APPARENT WHEN WE'VE MADE DECISIONS ABOUT IT. SO WHAT KIND OF CHANGES ARE YOU CONSIDERING THERE? WELL, IT'S THE CHANGES THAT ARE... THESE CHANGES ARE ALL ABOUT TRYING TO GET THE RIGHT BALANCE, THAT IS THE SKILLS WE NEED IN A GROWING ECONOMY, AND THERE'S MORE CALLS COMING FROM BUSINESSES AND THE LABOUR MARKET ABOUT THE NEED FOR SKILLS, BECAUSE WE ARE CREATING SO MANY NEW JOBS, ON THE ONE HAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, MAKING SURE WE'RE GETTING THE PEOPLE WHO CAN MATCH THOSE SKILLS. SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WOULD BE THE MOST EFFICIENT CHANGE THAT YOU CAN MAKE, THEN, TO ENABLE THE RIGHT PEOPLE TO COME IN? BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT ` NOT TURNING THE TAP OFF BUT MAKING SURE YOU'VE GOT THE RIGHT PEOPLE. SO WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT TWEAKING TO ENSURE THAT? WELL, IT'S JUST REFINING THE TESTS THAT ARE ABOUT THE FLOW OF PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY FROM THE TEMPORARY VISAS INTO THE WORKFORCE, BUT, LOOK, THAT'S UNDER DISCUSSION. AND WHEN WE'VE MADE SOME DECISIONS ABOUT THAT` SO MAKING IT HARDER FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE TEMPORARY VISAS TO STAY HERE PERMANENTLY? TO TAKE THE STEP UP? WELL, YOU HAVE A LARGE POOL. MOST OF OUR NEW RESIDENTS AND CITIZENS THESE DAYS COME FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY IN THE COUNTRY, AND SO WE'VE JUST GOT TO MAKE SURE THAT BOTH THOSE COMING IN AND THOSE WHO ARE ALREADY HERE ARE WELL MATCHED TO OUR SKILLS REQUIREMENTS. SO DO YOU THINK THOSE CHANGES THAT YOU'RE DISCUSSING WILL HAPPEN BEFORE THE ELECTION? WELL, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DO YOU THINK PEOPLE SHOULD KNOW BEFORE THE ELECTION WHAT THEY'RE VOTING FOR... OH, WELL, THEY` ...IN TERMS OF YOUR INTENTION TO MAKE CHANGES TO IMMIGRATION? SO SHOULDN'T THEY KNOW THAT BEFORE THEY GO TO THE POLLS? WELL, OUR POSITIONS WILL BE QUITE CLEAR BY THE TIME THEY GO TO THE POLLS. BUT WHAT THEY DO KNOW IS THAT WE ARE OPEN TO TRADE, WE'RE OPEN TO INVESTMENT, WE'RE OPEN TO PEOPLE. WE'RE NOT SHUTTING DOWN` BUT VOTERS SHOULD EXPECT AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON IMMIGRATION BEFORE THE ELECTION FROM YOU? WELL, THEY SHOULDN'T EXPECT SOME MAJOR CHANGE IN POLICY. WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE IS A SUCCESSFUL COUNTRY THAT'S ATTRACTING PEOPLE, THAT'S KEEPING ITS OWN, WHERE WE CAN FINE-TUNE TO GET A BETTER MATCH TO THE SKILLS WE NEED. AND THAT WILL LOWER THE FLOW OF PEOPLE COMING IN? WELL, IT MAY OR MAY NOT DO. I MEAN, SOME OF THE ADVICE IS THAT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECISIONS WE MADE LAST YEAR, THE NUMBERS WOULD BE HIGHER. IT'S ALWAYS A BIT HARD TO TELL, BUT YOU SHOULDN'T EXPECT A DRAMATIC IMPACT FROM CHANGES IN THE RULES. OK. SPEAKING OF NUMBERS, THERE'S A LOT OF DEBATE AROUND THE HOUSING SHORTAGE AND AROUND THOSE NUMBERS. SO AUCKLAND'S UNITARY PLAN SAYS IT'S 40,000 SHORT OF HOUSES. TREASURY SAYS 30,000 TO 35,000. SO WHAT FIGURE ARE YOU USING? WE'RE NOT USING ANY PARTICULAR FIGURE. WHY NOT? WELL, BECAUSE IT'S A BIT ARTIFICIAL. YOU CAN` BUT IF YOU DON'T KNOW THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM, HOW CAN YOU COME UP WITH A PLAN TO FIX IT ` A PROPER PLAN TO FIX IT? WELL, BECAUSE REGARDLESS OF HOW BIG YOU MIGHT THINK THE SHORTAGE MIGHT BE, THE ANSWER IS ALWAYS THE SAME, AND THAT IS GET MORE HOUSES ON THE GROUND FASTER. AND WE KNOW THAT HAS AN IMPACT. YOU'VE GOTTA LOOK AT CHRISTCHURCH, WHERE HOUSE PRICES ARE` BUT YOU DON'T KNOW IF YOU'RE CHASING YOUR OWN TAIL, DO YOU, THOUGH, PRIME MINISTER? YOU DON'T KNOW IF YOU'RE GETTING CLOSE TO HOW MANY HOUSES YOU NEED. YOU'RE A NUMBERS GUY; WHY NOT SAY A FIGURE AND INDICATE THAT THAT'S WHAT THE SHORTAGE IS? WELL, BECAUSE THE ANSWER'S ALWAYS THE SAME. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER ONE ESTIMATE'S TWICE THE OTHER. AND IN THE END, WE DON'T CONTROL THE DECISIONS; THE DECISIONS ARE MADE IN AUCKLAND BY THE AUCKLAND CITY COUNCIL AND EVERY OTHER TOWN BY THE LOCAL COUNCIL. NOTHING ` NO HOUSE ` CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE UNLESS THE COUNCIL MAKES A SERIES OF QUITE COMPLEX DECISIONS, RANGING FROM SUBDIVISION OR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TO SIGNING OFF THE CONFIRMATION THAT IT'S BUILT PROPERLY. BUT THAT DOESN'T AFFECT YOUR ABILITY TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF HOW MANY HOUSES WE ARE DOWN. WELL, WHO KNOWS`? THAT WAS A TREASURY NOTE THAT WENT TO YOU THAT SAID 30,000 TO 35,000. WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT NUMBER? WHY DON'T YOU ACCEPT THAT NUMBER? WELL, WHETHER IT'S 30,000 OR 35,000 OR WHATEVER, WHAT WE'RE DOING IS WORKING WITH COUNCILS TO GET MORE DONE SOONER, AND, ACTUALLY, THE CONSTRAINT NOW ISN'T THE SIZE OF THE ESTIMATES. WE'VE PUT A BILLION DOLLARS ON THE TABLE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE TO BRING FORWARD HOUSING SUPPLY, AND THAT'S BEEN A CHALLENGE FOR COUNCILS TO MEET THE REQUIREMENTS. YOU'RE STRUGGLING TO GET TAKERS, AREN'T YOU, INSOMUCH AS THE PROJECTS AREN'T BEING RUBBER-STAMPED FOR THIS FUND? WELL, I THINK THE COUNCILS ARE REALISING THAT IT SERIOUSLY HAS TO BE PROJECTS THAT ARE BRINGING SUPPLY FORWARD, NOT JUST FUNDING WHAT THEY ALREADY HAD. AND WE'VE HAD TO` SO, WHAT, YOU'RE SAYING THEY'RE TRYING TO SLIDE PROJECTS PAST THE GOALIE, THEY'RE TRYING TO GET MONEY FOR STUFF THAT THEY WERE ALREADY GOING TO DO ANYWAY? WELL, NO, WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT BOTH THE GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL COUNCILS ARE GOING THROUGH AN INTENSIVE PROCESS TO WORK OUT WHAT'S REQUIRED TO GET THINGS DONE SOONER. SO WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THEIR FINANCING MUCH BETTER, AND WE'RE LEARNING FAST, AND THEY NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE'RE SERIOUS THAT IT SHOULD BE PROJECTS COMING FORWARD, NOT JUST PAYING FOR WHAT'S ALREADY IN THE PLAN. SO, JUST ON THE HOUSE PRICES, AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN AUCKLAND, DO YOU RECKON IT'LL DROP BELOW A MILLION BUCKS THIS YEAR? I CAN'T SAY. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT EVEN AT THE HIGHER PRICES, THE AVERAGE COST OF SERVICING DEBT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER A LONG TIME BECAUSE INTEREST RATES ARE SO LOW, BUT THE HURDLE FOR GETTING IN IS HIGHER BECAUSE THE DEPOSITS ARE HIGHER. DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING IF IT DROPPED BELOW A MILLION DOLLARS? WELL, IT'LL DO WHAT IT DOES. WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SECURE REASONABLY-PRICED HOUSING. WE CAN'T DICTATE HOW THE MARKET WORKS. WHAT WE DO KNOW` NO, I KNOW, BUT I'M JUST CURIOUS OF YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS. DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING IF IT DROPPED BELOW A MILLION DOLLARS FOR THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN AUCKLAND? BECAUSE THAT'S A BIG NUMBER. WELL, FOR SOME PEOPLE, IT WOULD BE. NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. AND IT CAN HAPPEN. IN CHRISTCHURCH, WE'RE SEEING FLAT TO FALLING HOUSE PRICES, BECAUSE SO MANY HOUSES HAVE BEEN BUILT. IT'S NOW BECOME A VERY ATTRACTIVE CITY FOR MODERATELY PRICED HOUSING. SO FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, YOU SAY IT WOULD BE FOR SOME PEOPLE FOR IT TO DROP. DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR IT TO GO UNDER A MILLION? WELL, LOOK, IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME PEOPLE. WHAT WE'RE FOCUSING ON IS NOT SO MUCH WHAT THE PRICE ACTUALLY IS; IT'S ON GETTING MORE HOUSES ON THE GROUND, BECAUSE WE SEE THE DEMAND, AND THAT DEMAND IS THE PRODUCT OF A STRONG ECONOMY, RISING INCOMES AND PEOPLE WANTING TO LIVE HERE. WELL, ON THE DEMAND FRONT, THEN, IS THERE ANY PLANS TO BRING IN ANY MORE MEASURES BEFORE THE ELECTION ON THE DEMAND SIDE AND MAKE THE BRIGHT-LINE TEST LONGER THAN THE TWO-YEAR PERIOD? WOULD YOU LIKE ANY CHANGES TO LVRS? WHAT ARE YOU THINKING AROUND THAT? WELL, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. IT DEPENDS A BIT ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS, SO, FOR INSTANCE, AT THE MOMENT THERE'S SOME EVIDENCE THAT LEVEL OF SALES HAVE DROPPED, PRICES ARE PRETTY STATIC. THAT MAY STAY IN PLACE. IT MAY PICK UP AGAIN. WE'VE YET TO SEE. SO ARE YOU KEEPING THE PROSPECT OF DEMAND-SIDE MEASURES ON THE TABLE? WELL, LOOK, THEY'RE ALWAYS ON THE TABLE. AND OVER` NO, SERIOUSLY ON THE TABLE. WELL, THEY'RE ALWAYS ON THE TABLE, AND OVER THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS, WE'VE TAKEN QUITE A NUMBER OF DEMAND-SIDE MEASURES, AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE LEARNT FROM THAT IS THERE'S NOTHING BETTER THAN ANOTHER HOUSE ON THE GROUND. THAT'S THE BEST MEASURE. WELL, WITH THE SOCIAL AND EMERGENCY HOUSING, YOU'RE PUMPING AN EXTRA $304 MILLION INTO EMERGENCY HOUSING OVER THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. SO RIGHT NOW, HOW MANY NEW BEDS HAS THAT MONEY CREATED? WELL, WE'D EXPECT BY WINTER IT'LL BE SOMETHING AROUND 1200 ACROSS THE COUNTRY. I JUST OPENED SOME LAST WEEK IN LUKE ST. I THINK EVERYONE INVOLVED, INCLUDING THE PEOPLE WHO'VE LOBBIED EXTENSIVELY FOR MORE EMERGENCY HOUSING, ARE PRETTY HAPPY WITH THE ARRANGEMENTS. IT'S JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAST WE CAN MAKE THEM HAPPEN. IS THAT GOING TO BE ENOUGH, THOUGH? BECAUSE IF YOU LOOKED AT THIS WEEK THE GRANTS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN HOTELS ` 8800 GRANTS IN THREE MONTHS ` QUADRUPLE THE BUDGET. 1200 HOUSES, YOU'RE SAYING, BY WINTER, OR 1200 SPOTS. THEY'RE NOT EVEN HOUSES, ARE THEY? THEY'RE BEDS. THAT'S IN AUCKLAND. ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WE'LL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO DEAL WITH ABOUT 8000 PEOPLE OVER A YEAR, BECAUSE THEY STAY FOR THREE MONTHS IN THESE HOUSES. SO 2000 UNITS, YOU'D GET ROUGHLY FOUR PEOPLE THROUGH EACH OF THEM, BECAUSE THEY HAVE A LIMITED PERIOD. SO THE 8000 PLACES SHOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT. THAT'S ABOUT AS MANY AS WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE TIME THAT WE'VE GOT, WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY SHORT. I MEAN, THAT PROJECT THE OTHER DAY THAT I OPENED, THEY ONLY GOT ON THE SITE IN OCTOBER. FAMILIES MOVED INTO THE HOUSES JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. WELL, MORE FROM BILL ENGLISH AFTER THE BREAK, INCLUDING HOW LONG HE PLANS TO STAY PRIME MINISTER. YES, IT REALLY IS A MUST-WATCH, THAT, SO DO COME BACK, BUT LATER, ALSO, WE RATE DONALD TRUMP'S PERFORMANCE AS PRESIDENT WITH ONE OF HIS BIGGEST, HIS BIGGEST REPUBLICAN CRITICS. WELCOME BACK TO THE NATION. NOW, BEFORE THE BREAK, WE HEARD FROM THE PRIME MINISTER OF NEW ZEALAND, BILL ENGLISH, ABOUT HOW HE'S FEELING ABOUT HIS NEW JOB AND POTENTIAL CHANGES TO IMMIGRATION THIS ELECTION YEAR. YES, AND I ALSO ASKED HIM ABOUT ONE OF HIS SIGNATURE POLICY AREAS, WHICH IS SOCIAL INVESTMENT. THE SOCIAL INVESTMENT PROGRAMME ` NOW, THAT'S BEEN YOUR BABY. YOU EVEN CREATED A NEW MINISTER'S ROLE. WHAT PLANS DO YOU HAVE TO EXPAND THAT PROGRAMME? WELL, WE PLAN TO EXPAND IT, BECAUSE THERE'S STILL TOO MANY NEW ZEALANDERS, PARTICULARLY THE MOST VULNERABLE, FOR WHOM GOVERNMENT SERVICES DON'T WORK THAT WELL. WE'VE HAD SOME REAL GAINS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WELFARE AREA, WHERE` AND THE MOST SUCCESS, PROBABLY, WITH SOLE PARENTS, WHERE WE HAVE INDIVIDUALISED AND STRONG SUPPORT TO GET THEM INTO WORK. THE NEXT AREA WHERE WE WANT TO EXPAND THAT TO IS THE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE MILD MENTAL ILLNESS OR DISABILITY OF SOME SORT. WE'VE GOT A LOT TO LEARN ABOUT HOW TO DO A BETTER JOB FOR THEM. AND THE CHANGES COMING UP FROM 1 APRIL FOR VULNERABLE CHILDREN ARE GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST IT'S BEEN FOR YEARS. THE GREAT NEWS ABOUT THAT IS THERE'S BROAD SUPPORT FOR BIG CHANGE, AND THAT'LL BE AN AGENCY THAT'S DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES RATHER THAN COST. SO THE WHOLE PRINCIPLE BEHIND THAT IS SPENDING TARGETED MONEY NOW TO HAVE MONEY LATER, RIGHT? SO THE CHILDREN'S COMMISSIONER WANTS THE GOVERNMENT TO CUT CHILD POVERTY, TO SET A TARGET, AND THE SUGGESTION WAS 10%. CUT IT BY 10% WITHIN A YEAR. WOULD YOU TAKE ON A TARGET LIKE THAT? WELL, WE'VE GOT A WHOLE LOT OF TARGETS TO BEAR IN ON CHILD POVERTY, BECAUSE THERE'S TWO` I'M ASKING YOU ABOUT THAT TARGET. THIS IS THE CHILDREN'S COMMISSIONER WHO'S SAYING THAT HE REALLY WANTS THIS DONE. WHY NOT TAKE THAT ON AS TARGET? WELL, WE'RE NOT TAKING ON THAT PARTICULAR ONE. THERE'S LOTS OF ARGUMENTS ABOUT MEASUREMENTS, AND WE'RE FOCUSED ON TWO THINGS. ONE IS LIFTING INCOMES, AND WE'VE TAKEN ONE STEP LAST YEAR WITH THE INCREASED $25 A WEEK IN ALL WELFARE HOMES WITH CHILDREN. WE'VE GOT THE OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF US TO LIFT INCOMES FURTHER, AND ALONGSIDE THAT, GET INTO DEALING WITH THE CYCLES OF DEPENDENCY AND CRIMINAL OFFENDING AND ABUSE. BUT THAT IS A CATEGORICAL NO TO A CHILD POVERTY TARGET, A REDUCTION IN CHILD POVERTY? A CATEGORICAL NO TO SETTING A TARGET THAT THE COMMISSIONER WOULD APPROVE OF? WELL, WE HAVE A NUMBER OF TARGETS WHICH WE BELIEVE BEAR IN ON CHILD POVERTY, AND LIKE` YEAH, BUT THAT'S NOT THE TARGET THAT THE CHILDREN'S COMMISSIONER SET OUT. SO WE'RE NOT AGREEING TO THAT TARGET. AND YOU'VE GOT NO PLANS TO GET ON BOARD WITH THAT? NO, WE'RE NOT GOING TO. WE'RE NOT ADOPTING THAT TARGET, BUT WE HAVE A NUMBER OF TARGETS, MANY OF WHICH ARE QUITE CHALLENGING, THAT ARE COMING IN AT ALL THE ANGLES ON THE ISSUE OF THE WELFARE AND FUTURE OF OUR CHILDREN. SO ARE YOU GOING TO DO ANYTHING SPECIFIC IN A FINANCIAL LEVEL TO HELP THOSE FAMILIES? ACCOMMODATION SUPPLEMENT ` ARE YOU GOING TO RAISE OR EXPAND THAT? WELL, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. I'M IMPATIENT, THOUGH. YES, I KNOW. WELL` I'M WONDERING, ARE YOU GOING TO RAISE OR EXPAND THAT? WHAT WE'VE MADE CLEAR IS WE HAVE SURPLUSES, WHICH EVERYONE'S WORKED HARD TO ACHIEVE, SO THAT MEANS WE'VE GOT CHOICES, AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT DRIVES THOSE CHOICES IS THAT EVERYONE BENEFITS FROM A GROWING ECONOMY, SO WE'LL BE MAKING THOSE CHOICES THROUGH THIS YEAR. WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME IT WAS CHANGED? WHAT WAS CHANGED? THE ACCOMMODATION SUPPLEMENT ADJUSTED? OH, IT HASN'T BEEN ADJUSTED FOR SOME TIME. YEAH, 2007, BASED ON 2005 RENTS. SO CAN FAMILIES EXPECT AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON THIS BEFORE THE ELECTION? YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. WHAT ABOUT WORKING FOR FAMILIES? WELL, AGAIN, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. I MEAN, THE POINT HERE IS THAT THERE'S A NUMBER OF TOOLS THAT ENABLE A COUNTRY THAT'S GOT A GROWING ECONOMY AND GOT GOVERNMENT SURPLUSES ` A NUMBER OF TOOLS THAT ENABLE US TO SHARE THE BENEFITS OF THAT GROWTH. OK, LET ME PUT IT ANOTHER WAY. THE MAN WHO HAD THE JOB BEFORE YOU INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME KIND OF FAMILY PACKAGE PROBABLY IN THE BUDGET, SO ARE YOU STILL THINKING ALONG THOSE LINES AND STILL THINKING THAT WE CAN AFFORD IT? YES. CAN YOU GIVE US AN INDICATION OF WHAT FORM THAT MIGHT TAKE? NO, NOT YET. NOT EVEN A HINT? NO, NOT YET. OK, SO THE AVERAGE WAGE ` DO YOU STILL RECKON IT'S GOING TO HIT 66,000 BY 2021? WELL, LOOK, IT DEPENDS A BIT ON THE ECONOMY, BUT WHAT` THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AVERAGE WAGE IS MODERATE BUT CONSISTENT GAINS, AND THAT'S`GIVEN THE ECONOMIC STABILITY THERE'S BEEN AROUND THE WORLD, COMPARED TO MOST COUNTRIES, IT'S PRETTY GOOD. STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR EVERYBODY. WE NEED MORE GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY, MORE SUSTAINED INNOVATION, MORE SUSTAINED RESEARCH AND RISK-TAKING. THAT'S WHAT'LL GENERATE BETTER INCOMES. BECAUSE THE THING IS, AS YOU'LL BE ACUTELY AWARE, GIVEN THAT IT'S CREEPING UP AROUND THAT TOP TAX BRACKET, IS THERE A NEED TO SHIFT THE THRESHOLD? WELL, THAT'S ANOTHER ISSUE` ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY THAT WE HAVE. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT TAX REDUCTIONS, FOCUSED ON LOW AND MIDDLE INCOMES. YOU'RE QUITE RIGHT. THE AVERAGE WAGE IS SNEAKING TOWARDS THE TOP THRESHOLD. BY INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, THAT'S PRETTY LOW. BUT WE'VE GOT TO LOOK AT THE BALANCE HERE. AS WE'VE SAID, WE WANT TO SHARE THE BENEFITS OF GROWTH WITH EVERYBODY. EVERYONE DESERVES THAT. IT'S NOT JUST A MATTER OF US DECIDING. AND THE TAX SYSTEM IS ONE WAY OF DOING IT, BUT IT'S HARD TO TARGET. IS IT ONE THAT YOU WOULD FAVOUR? WELL, IT'S AN OPTION. IT'S PART OF THE MIX. WOULD YOU THINK IT WOULD BE` WOULD IT BE FAIR FOR THE AVERAGE WAGE TO SLIP OVER INTO THAT TOP CATEGORY? WOULD THAT BE A FAIR SITUATION TO HAVE? WELL, LOOK, IT WOULD PROBABLY FEEL TO PEOPLE LIKE THEY'RE NOT EARNING THAT MUCH, AND THEY FIND THEMSELVES PAYING THE TOP TAX RATE. WHAT IT HELPS PEOPLE UNDERSTAND IS THAT OUR RATES` SO YOU THINK THAT, FUNDAMENTALLY, IT WOULD BE UNFAIR IF THE AVERAGE WAGE CAME INTO THAT TOP TAX BRACKET? WELL, FAIRNESS IS RELATIVE TO EVERYONE ELSE, RIGHT? I'M ASKING YOU. WELL, YOU HAVE TO WEIGH IT UP AGAINST THE OTHER NEEDS ACROSS YOUR COMMUNITY. SO THERE'S A CASE THERE FOR MAKING CHANGES IN THE TAX SYSTEM. THERE'S ALSO A CASE FOR LIFTING THE INCOMES OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LOWEST INCOMES. SO THAT'S THE BALANCE WE'LL BE LOOKING TO ACHIEVE OVER THE NEXT WEE WHILE. AND DO YOU PERSONALLY FAVOUR ONE SIDE OF THAT EQUATION OVER THE OTHER? WELL, WE MAKE OUR DECISIONS AS A COLLECTIVE IN THE GOVERNMENT. OK. WE'VE GOT A FEW THINGS TO GET THROUGH, SO I'M GOING TO SKIP ACROSS A COUPLE OF THINGS QUICKLY. SUPER ` JOHN KEY SAID NO CHANGES ON HIS WATCH. WELL, HIS WATCH IS OVER. CAN WE AFFORD TO CARRY ON AS WE ARE? WELL, IT'S TURNED OUT THAT BECAUSE SO MANY MORE PEOPLE ARE WORKING AS THEY GET THROUGH THE AGE 60, 65, THAT SUPER IS MORE AFFORDABLE THAN WAS EXPECTED, SAY, 15 YEARS AGO. I HAVEN'T MADE THE SAME UNDERTAKING AS JOHN, SO WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A RESET THERE. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN, 'A BIT OF A RESET'? WELL, WE'RE JUST WORKING THROUGH THE LONG-TERM AFFORDABILITY. THAT SOUNDS LIKE CHANGES. RESETS SOUNDS LIKE CHANGES. SO ARE YOU LOOKING AT THE AGE OF ELIGIBILITY? IS THAT ON THE TABLE FOR YOU? WELL, AS I SAID, I HAVEN'T MADE THE SAME UNDERTAKING AS JOHN, AND SO NOW WE NEED TO THINK THROUGH WHAT DIFFERENCE THAT MAKES. THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT TO A BUNCH OF PEOPLE WHO ARE WATCHING THIS, AND WITH AN AGEING POPULATION, INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE PEOPLE. SO, WHAT, MAYBE DON'T INDEX IT AGAINST WAGES? WELL, LOOK, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE, BUT WE WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DRASTIC CHANGE. I MEAN, SUPER HAS` WE'VE BENEFITED FROM THE STABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVEN OR EIGHT YEARS. THAT'S WHY THE PREVIOUS PRIME MINISTER MAKE THE UNDERTAKING THAT HE DID, SO PEOPLE DIDN'T HAVE TO WORRY THROUGH TOUGH TIMES ABOUT WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH NATIONAL SUPER. BUT YOU'RE SAYING YOU'RE NOT MAKING THE SAME COMMITMENT AS JOHN KEY NOT TO TINKER WITH THIS, AND YOU'VE ALSO JUST INDICATED THAT YOU'RE KIND OF LOOKING AT IT. WELL, JUST REMEMBER THE COMMITMENT THAT HE MADE WAS IF THERE WAS ANY CHANGE IN NATIONAL SUPER, HE'D RESIGN. I MEAN, THAT WAS A PRETTY CAST-IRON, CLEAR-CUT` WELL, HE'S GONE NOW. HE HAS RESIGNED. A CLEAR-CUT COMMITMENT. THAT'S RIGHT. SO DO` AGE OF ELIGIBILITY? YOU SAID NOT MAJOR CHANGES, SO MAYBE RAISING IT A COUPLE OF YEARS? IS THAT WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT? WELL, LOOK, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE, BUT THE` THE THING IS, THIS IS A HUGE THING FOR VOTERS, THOUGH, SO IF YOU'RE NOT GOING TO MAKE A COMMITMENT TO KEEP IT HOW IT IS, CAN YOU COMMIT TO TELLING VOTERS BEFORE THE ELECTION EXACTLY WHAT YOUR PLANS ARE FOR SUPER? YES, YES. SO YOU'LL MAKE IT CLEAR BEFORE YOU GO TO THE POLLS IF YOU'RE GOING TO CHANGE ANY ELEMENT OF THE SUPER PROGRAMME? THAT'S RIGHT, YEAH. PEOPLE DESERVE TO KNOW WHAT THE GOVERNMENT'S VIEW IS WHEN THEY GO TO THE POLLS. SO WE CAN EXPECT AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON THAT, THEN? WELL, YOU'D EXPECT PEOPLE TO KNOW WHAT THE GOVERNMENT'S POSITION IS. YOU'VE INDICATED ALREADY WHO YOU'RE PREPARED TO WORK WITH POST-ELECTION, AND SO LET'S LOOK AT SOME OF YOUR CURRENT PARTNERS. THE MAORI PARTY ` YOU HAVE IN RECENT TIMES REPEATEDLY DESCRIBED THEM AS CHALLENGING. WAS THAT A COMPLIMENT? YEAH, IT WAS IN A WAY. LOOK, THIS IS A PARTY THAT WE WENT INTO PARTNERSHIP WITH ORIGINALLY BACK IN 2008, WHEN PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WAS A PRETTY LATERAL, UNEXPECTED THING TO DO, AND WE'VE MAINTAINED THAT PARTNERSHIP RIGHT THROUGH. IT'S, I THINK, MADE US A BETTER GOVERNMENT, BUT IT DOES MEAN WE'VE HAD TO DEAL WITH SOME PRETTY CHALLENGING ISSUES, BECAUSE THEY PUT THEM ON THE TABLE. AND IN THAT SENSE, I THINK THEY'VE REPRESENTED MAORI VERY WELL. THE MAORI MPS AND LABOUR HAVEN'T HAD ANY INFLUENCE ON GOVERNMENT EVER. WELL, THE THING IS THEY'VE GOT A NEW FRIEND, THOUGH, HAVEN'T THEY? HIS NAME'S HONE HARAWIRA. WILL THAT MAKE THEM EVEN MORE CHALLENGING TO WORK WITH, THAT RELATIONSHIP? LOOK, THAT ALL DEPENDS ON THE MAORI PARTY, YOU KNOW, WHAT POLICIES THEY BRING TO THE TABLE. I WOULDN'T GET TOO MIXED UP ABOUT THE PERSONALITIES. YOU KNOW, WE'VE WORKED WITH A WHOLE RANGE OF PERSONALITIES, INCLUDING HONE HARAWIRA WHEN HE WAS IN PARLIAMENT. BUT THE THING IS, YOU DON'T ACTUALLY THINK HE'S GOING TO MAKE IT TO PARLIAMENT, DON'T YOU? BECAUSE YOU HAVE SAID THAT IN TE TAI TOKERAU, YOU DON'T THINK HE WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE. WELL, LOOK, THAT'LL BE SORTED OUT BY THE VOTERS IN TE TAI TOKERAU. WELL, IT RAISES A QUESTION, THEN, ARE YOU BACKING KELVIN DAVIS TO WIN, THEN? WE'RE NOT BACKING ANYONE UP THERE. WE PREFER TO SEE` BUT DO YOU THINK HE'S GONNA WIN IT? IF YOU'RE SAYING THAT HONE HARAWIRA'S NOT GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE, YOU THINK KELVIN DAVIS IS GOING TO WALK AWAY WITH IT. WELL, LOOK, THE VOTERS THERE WILL SORT IT OUT. WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT WE NEED TO GET OUR PROPORTION OF THE VOTE HIGH SO THAT WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY, IDEALLY, TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE PARTIES WE'VE WORKED WITH FOR SOME TIME, AND IF NOT, WORK WITH WHOEVER ELSE THE VOTERS PUT THERE. OHARIU, WHERE YOUR OTHER SUPPORT PARTNER IS, PETER DUNNE. DO YOU THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE A TIGHT RACE? THAT'LL DEPEND ON THE CANDIDATES. PETER DUNNE'S A VERY EXPERIENCED LOCAL MP. HE IS, BUT HE ONLY HAD A MARGIN OF 700-ODD LAST TIME. DO YOU THINK YOU COULD BE DOING YOURSELF A DISSERVICE BY STANDING A CANDIDATE THERE? LOOK, WE'LL DEAL WITH ANY ISSUES RELATED TO OHARIU CLOSER TO THE ELECTION. DO YOU MEAN BY GIVING A MESSAGE TO VOTERS ABOUT WHAT THEY SHOULD DO? WELL, LET'S JUST SEE HOW THINGS GO. LIKE EPSOM? LET'S JUST SEE HOW THINGS GO. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE ARRANGEMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE THERE BETWEEN LABOUR AND THE GREENS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE THE CHOICES AROUND VOTING LABOUR, BECAUSE THEY'RE NO LONGER THE KIND OF, THE MODERATE ALTERNATIVE GOVERNMENT THAT THEY USED TO BE. SO, ARE YOU GOING TO TELL VOTERS TO GIVE YOU THE PARTY VOTE THERE AND GIVE THEIR CANDIDATE VOTE TO PETER DUNNE? WELL, LET'S JUST SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS THROUGH THE YEAR. LEAVING THAT OPEN, THEN? YEP. OK. WOULD YOU ARBITRARILY CHANGE IMMIGRATION POLICY IN ORDER TO GET WINSTON PETERS' SUPPORT POST-ELECTION? IS THAT A POSSIBILITY? WE'RE NOT NEGOTIATING POST-ELECTION POSITIONS WITH ANYBODY, AND OUR FOCUS IS` I'M JUST CURIOUS ABOUT THAT. WELL, I CAN SEE WHY PEOPLE MIGHT BE CURIOUS, BUT OUR FOCUS IS ON WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE WE CAN SELL TO NEW ZEALAND THE PROSPECT OF AN ENERGISED, FOCUSED, NEW NATIONAL GOVERNMENT AFTER THE 2017 ELECTION. THAT'S WHAT'LL GET OUR VOTE UP FAR ENOUGH TO NEGOTIATE WITH ANYBODY. OK, WELL, THE THING IS YOU'VE BEEN IN THIS GAME FOR MORE THAN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY. YOUR SOCIAL INVESTMENT PROGRAMME, WHAT, THAT'S GOING TO TAKE 10, 15-ODD YEARS TO BEAR RESULTS. SO IF YOU WIN THE ELECTION, HOW LONG ARE YOU COMMITTED TO STAYING IN THE GAME FOR? OH, AS LONG AS IT TAKES. I'M HUGELY ENJOYING THE JOB. IT'S A GREAT TEAM. IT'S ENERGISED. THEY'RE COMING UP WITH SOME REAL FOCUS THROUGH TO THE ELECTION AND BEYOND, AND WE HAVE TAKEN UNASHAMEDLY A LONG-TERM VIEW ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS, A NUMBER OF ISSUES, BECAUSE THEY TAKE QUITE A WHILE. AND A LONG-TERM VIEW MEANS YOU'VE GOT TO BE AROUND FOR A LONG TIME BEFORE YOU SEE IT TO FRUITION, SO IF YOU WIN THIS ELECTION, AND YOU'RE PRIME MINISTER, YOU'RE GOING TO GO AGAIN? YES, THAT'S RIGHT. I MEAN, WHEN WE SET TARGETS` YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED TO THAT YOURSELF? I MEAN, YOU PERSONALLY? YES, THAT'S RIGHT, BECAUSE AS WE'VE DEVELOPED THESE FRAMEWORKS AROUND LIFTING THE QUALITY OF OUR FRESH WATER OR PREDATOR-FREE NEW ZEALAND OR A BETTER START AND A BETTER LIFE FOR OUR MOST CHALLENGED CHILDREN, THAT TAKES A WHILE, AND WE DO HAVE TO PROTECT THAT, PARTICULARLY FROM THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, WHO ARE LOCKED INTO A 1970'S VIEW OF THE STATE, WHICH WOULD BE DAMAGING TO MANY OF THE PEOPLE THAT WE'RE NOW HELPING EFFECTIVELY. WHAT ABOUT THE ONE AFTER THAT? DO YOU KNOW YET ABOUT THAT? WELL, I HAVEN'T THOUGHT ABOUT THAT. LET'S JUST GET THE NEXT TWO. SO THE FIRST TWO? ALL RIGHT, I APPRECIATE YOUR TIME. THANKS FOR JOINING US. THANK YOU. YEAH, REALLY GOOD INTERVIEW. NOW, A LOT TO TALK ABOUT, ACTUALLY, LATER IN THE SHOW WITH OUR BLOCKBUSTER PANEL, TRACY WATKINS AND GUYON ESPINER. BUT FIRST, OUR FAVOURITE COMEDIANS HAVE BEEN ORDERED TO UP THEIR GAME. THE BIG QUESTION THIS WEEK ` THE BOSS WANTS THIS SHOW TO BE MORE WATCHABLE THIS YEAR, PAUL. IDEAS? WHY DON'T WE JUST CHANGE THE DEFINITION OF WATCHABLE? NIP IN THE BUD. NICE. LIKE IT. KEEP DOING THAT, AND 90% OF THE SHOW WILL BE WATCHABLE BY THE YEAR 2040. PLUS, WE WON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THE LEVEL OF CRAP IN IT. YES, INDEED. BIG WEEK FOR ARDERN, OF COURSE. FIRST, MT ALBERT, THEN, DISMOUNT KING. AND WHAT A DISMOUNT BY KING, TOO. A PERFECT BACKFLIP FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY ON THE RETIREMENT MAT. BEAUTIFULLY EXECUTED. FROM 'THIS IDEA IS AGEIST' TO 'THIS HAS BEEN MY IDEA FOR AGES.' LABOUR USING A LOT OF EXPERIENCE WITH ANNETTE. CAN ARDERN STEP UP? OH, I THINK SHE CAN GO EVEN FURTHER. IF SHE CAN JUST 'SHIFT A LITTLE' AND 'SETTLE THE BILL,' SHE COULD BE PM. EW, PRIME MINISTER UNDER 40. YEAH, IF YOU THOUGHT POLITICS WAS HARD TO FOLLOW BEFORE... WE ARE GONNA HAVE TO BE WOKE TO STAY LIT, PAUL. OOH, WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO NETFLIX AND CHILL, DUDE. STAMMERS: I DON'T THINK WE WANNA... THE FINAL BIG QUESTION ` IS BILL ENGLISH RIGHT? DO WE NEED IMMIGRANTS TO GRAB OUR CHERRIES BECAUSE KIWIS ARE FAILING DRUGS TESTS? WELL, HE HEARD IT FROM A FEW BUSINESS MATES, SO MUST BE TRUE. THE DATA DOESN'T BACK HIM UP. (SCOFFS) FACTS. SO 2016! (CHUCKLES) WELCOME BACK. DONALD TRUMP'S BEEN THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT FOR SIX WEEKS, AND IT'S BEEN ANYTHING BUT DULL. ALLEGED TIES WITH RUSSIA, THE SO-CALLED ANTI-MUSLIM BAN, ATTACKS ON THE COURTS AND THE MEDIA, OF COURSE, ARE JUST A FEW OF TRUMP'S TACTICS THAT HAVE MADE NOT ONLY WASHINGTON BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS. YEAH. EVAN SIEGFRIED IS A REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST WHO CAME OUT AGAINST TRUMP LAST YEAR. HE JOINS US NOW, LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY. EVAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, AND I WANT TO START BY ASKING YOU ` FOR A REPUBLICAN, YOU WERE REALLY ANTI-TRUMP; WHAT'S IT LIKE LIVING NOW IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNDER THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP? WELL, MY ANSWER WOULD PROBABLY DEPEND UPON WHETHER OR NOT YOU GUYS WILL GRANT MY APPLICATION FOR ASYLUM. BUT IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, IT'S VERY DIFFERENT. I THINK WE'RE SEEING A BATTLE FOR THE SOUL OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. I STAND HERE AS A CONSERVATIVE, AND I SEE THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE ` WITHDRAWING FROM THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, THE HEAVY GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN PRETTY MUCH THE DAILY ASPECTS OF LIFE, THE CRONY CAPITALISM WHERE THE PRESIDENT PICKS UP THE PHONE AND CALLS A COMPANY AND SAYS, 'NO, NO, NO. I DON'T WANT YOU TO MOVE A JOB OUT OF HERE, SO I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU ALL THESE BENEFITS, 'AND YOU DON'T MOVE THOSE JOBS.' IT JUST DOES NOT SIT WELL WITH ME. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE POSITIVE THINGS THAT HE'S DONE. I APPLAUD HIS APPOINTMENT, OR NOMINATION, I SHOULD SAY, OF JUDGE NEIL GORSUCH TO SIT ON THE SUPREME COURT. HIS APPOINTMENT OF H R MCMASTER TO REPLACE MICHAEL FLYNN AS THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER IS ANOTHER STRONG MOVE WHICH I THINK THE WORLD COMMUNITY CAN EVEN RESPECT, GIVEN HIS VIEW OF TERRORISM AND IT BEING TO COUNTER TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S OWN VIEW. YEAH, SURE. DO YOU FEEL LIKE THAT HE'S WRECKED THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THAT HE'S WRECKED THE PARTY THAT YOU OBVIOUSLY LOVE, THAT GRAND OLD PARTY? WHAT SORT OF DAMAGE, LASTING DAMAGE, IS HE DOING? WELL, I'M NOT ENTIRELY SURE JUST YET. I THINK WE HAVE A GENERATIONAL DIVIDE IN AMERICA, NOT JUST IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BUT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL, BETWEEN BABY BOOMERS AND MILLENNIALS. BABY BOOMERS, THIS ELECTION WAS THAT LAST GASP OF THAT GENERATION, AND OVERWHELMINGLY IN POLLS, THEY APPROVE OF WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT MILLENNIALS, SUCH AS MYSELF, WE ARE COMPLETELY AGAINST IT. WE BELIEVE IN FREE TRADE, WE DON'T BELIEVE IN PROTECTIONISM, WE BELIEVE IN ALLOWING IMMIGRANTS TO COME INTO THE UNITED STATES AND NOT BUILDING A WALL. BUT BABY BOOMERS ARE THE EXACT OPPOSITE. THEY'VE SORT OF GOTTEN OLD AND CURMUDGEONLY, FOR LACK OF A BETTER DESCRIPTION, WHEREAS US MILLENNIALS, WE BELIEVE IN PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT. YEAH, SO, I MEAN, IF WE LOOK AT TRADE, WHICH YOU TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT ` OBVIOUSLY VERY IMPORTANT TO A COUNTRY LIKE NEW ZEALAND, WHERE THERE IS LITERALLY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AT STAKE. PICKING UP ON THE TAPE-RECORDED CONVERSATION WHERE DONALD TRUMP WAS TALKING ABOUT 10% TARIFFS AND ALSO USING FOOD SAFETY TO, SORT OF, INFLUENCE TRADE, HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT THAT OUT HERE IN NEW ZEALAND? WELL, PART OF IT IS WHILE THE PRESIDENT DOES SET TRADE POLICY, IT STILL HAS TO GO THROUGH THE CONGRESS, AND THE CONGRESS HAS TO PASS IT. THERE ARE MANY REPUBLICANS WHO BELIEVE THAT ACTIONS LIKE THAT THAT ARE PROTECTIONIST ACTUALLY NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE ECONOMY. HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, WE DON'T DO AS MUCH TRADE WITH NEW ZEALAND AS WE DO WITH, SAY, MEXICO, AND WE GET THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AVOCADOS FROM MEXICO. AND THE PRESIDENT WAS TALKING ABOUT SLAPPING A 20% TARIFF ON AVOCADOS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM MEXICO. BUT WHAT PEOPLE FAIL TO REALISE, AND I THINK THE PRESIDENT INTENTIONALLY IGNORES, IS THAT IT'S ACTUALLY THE CONSUMER WHO WILL PAY THAT PRICE. SO IT WILL ONLY HURT THE COST OF LIVING FOR EVERY AMERICAN. AND I THINK THAT THERE ARE MANY REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS WHO HAVE BEEN QUIET, BUT THEY WON'T LET IT HAPPEN OR AT LEAST SLOW WALK IT TO THE POINT WHERE WE ARE SEEING THIS PROTECTIONIST IDEALS, BECAUSE THAT JUST NEGATIVELY IMPACTS ANY ECONOMY, BE IT YOURS, MINE OR EVEN MEXICO'S. AND I ALSO WANT TO PICK UP ON WHAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT EARLIER WITH THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER AND SECURITY IN GENERAL, OR IN PARTICULAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST ` IRAQ AND SYRIA. CAN YOU SEE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE WAY THAT THEY ARE FIGHTING THE ISLAMIC STATE OVER THERE? NEW ZEALAND WOULD BE INFLUENCED; WE'VE GOT TROOPS OVER THERE. CAN YOU SEE SOME CHANGES IN TACTICS, MATERIAL CHANGES IN TACTICS, THAT MIGHT COME? I'M NOT ENTIRELY SURE, TO BE HONEST WITH YOU. I THINK PART OF THE TACTICS IS ` AND I'M GOING TO BE GOING AGAINST MY OWN PARTY HERE ` BUT WE NEED TO STOP CALLING IT RADICAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM, BECAUSE, AS GENERAL MCMASTER HIMSELF POINTED OUT, CALLING IT THAT, CALLING IT ANYTHING ISLAMIC, GIVES THEM CREDENCE WHEN TERRORISM IN ITSELF IS AGAINST THE FUNDAMENTALS OF ISLAM. AND I THINK THAT IF PRESIDENT TRUMP WERE WISE AND LISTENED TO GENERAL MCMASTER AND GENERAL MATTIS, WHO'S NOW SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, AND SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY KELLY, THEN THAT WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL THING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE COMPETING POWER CENTRES WITHIN THE WHITE HOUSE, SUCH AS STEVE BANNON, THE SENIOR COUNSELLOR, OR THE CHIEF STRATEGIST TO THE PRESIDENT, WHO BELIEVES IN SAYING RADICAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM AND THAT WE SHOULD JUST WIPE THEM OUT. I THINK ON THE SECURITY LEVEL, WE'RE SEEING THAT IN THE SO-CALLED TRAVEL BAN. THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF DISINFORMATION ABOUT IT, SUCH AS MUSLIMS CAN'T COME INTO THE UNITED STATES. MUSLIMS FROM ONLY SEVEN NATIONS CANNOT COME INTO THE UNITED STATES FOR 90 DAYS WHILE WE IMPROVE THE VETTING SYSTEM FOR THOSE PARTICULAR SEVEN NATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME, MUSLIMS FROM INDONESIA, THE MOST POPULOUS MUSLIM NATION ON THE PLANET, CAN COME INTO THE UNITED STATES AND LEGALLY IMMIGRATE. YEAH, I MEAN, WHEN WE LOOK AT THINGS LIKE THIS AND WE LOOK AT IT FROM AFAR, YOU DO SEE DONALD TRUMP ADVANCING HIS AGENDA AND KEEPING HIS PROMISES, BUT THERE IS SO MUCH CHAOS AROUND THE WHITE HOUSE AND THINGS THAT THEY ARE DOING THAT ARE OVERSHADOWING IT. I MEAN, I WANT TO ASK YOU THIS ` IS THE WHITE HOUSE IN CONTROL OR IS IT OUT OF CONTROL OVER THERE? THE WHITE HOUSE CLAIMS IT'S IN CONTROL, BUT IN REALITY IT'S LIKE THAT SCENE IN THE WOLF OF WALL STREET WHERE HE DRIVES THE CAR HOME FROM THE COUNTRY CLUB AND HE'S HIGH ON QUAALUDES AND THINKS HE DOES AN AMAZING JOB DRIVING IN A STRAIGHT LINE WHEN THE NEXT MORNING HE DISCOVERS HE CRASHES IT INTO ANY AND EVERYTHING. THE WHITE HOUSE IS NOT IN CONTROL. A PERFECT EXAMPLE FOR YOU IS WHILE IT MAY SEEM ON THE SURFACE THAT HE'S DELIVERING ON ALL OF HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISES, HE ACTUALLY NEEDS TO HAVE RESULTS AND HAVE THEM PASS THROUGH THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS THE CONGRESS. AND HE CAME OUT ABOUT FOUR WEEKS AGO AND SAID, 'OH, MY TAX REFORM PLAN IS AMAZING. 'I'LL BE PRESENTING IT IN TWO WEEKS.' AND REPUBLICANS ON CAPITOL HILL SAID, 'WAIT A SECOND. WE HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN CONSULTED. 'WE'RE THE ONES YOU NEED TO TALK TO, BECAUSE WE'RE THE ONES WHO LEGALLY PROPOSE THE LEGISLATION 'AND PASS IT AND GET IT THROUGH.' IT'S VERY CHAOTIC. AND WHAT WE'LL DO IS WE'LL LEAVE YOU NOW OVER THERE IN NEW YORK CITY TO GO AND MAYBE TAKE A QUAALUDE OR SOMETHING AND JUST CHILL OUT A BIT. (BOTH LAUGH) ALCOHOL IS MY COPING MECHANISM. GOOD ON YOU. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. ALL RIGHT, WELL, STICK AROUND. WE'LL BE BACK AFTER THE BREAK WITH OUR PANEL, GUYON ESPINER AND TRACY WATKINS. YOU'RE BACK WITH 'THE NATION' AND OUR PANEL ` FAIRFAX POLITICAL EDITOR TRACY WATKINS AND RNZ PRESENTER GUYON ESPINER AND, OF COURSE, OUR PADDY. UM, WE HAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SIT DOWN WITH THE PRIME MINISTER THERE. IS HE OWNING THIS JOB? IS HE COMFORTABLE IN IT, DO YOU THINK? I FELT HE WAS SPEAKING A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH LIKE A FINANCE MINISTER AND NOT ENOUGH LIKE A PRIME MINISTER. THERE WAS NO NARRATIVE. THERE WEREN'T THE STORIES YOU MIGHT GET WITH JOHN KEY ABOUT HOW I MET AN IMMIGRANT WHO'S FILLED A JOB PLACE OR SETTLING IN REALLY WELL OR A YOUNG COUPLE WHO'VE JUST BOUGHT A HOUSE ON THE FRINGES OF AUCKLAND OR WHATEVER IT WAS. I THOUGHT HE GOT A BIT STUCK IN THE MUD AND WAS SPEAKING MORE LIKE A FINANCE MINISTER. YOU THINK HE REVERTS TO HIS COMFORT ZONE? I THOUGHT SO. I THINK THE THING WITH ENGLISH IS HE HAS TO LEARN THAT IT'S HIS JOB NOW TO SELL THE VISION. YOU KNOW, HE'S GOT TO TELL THE PEOPLE, GET THEM EXCITED ABOUT VOTING FOR NATIONAL AGAIN. AND AT THE MOMENT HE IS VERY MUCH STUCK IN THAT FINANCE MINISTER'S ROLE. HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE NUMBERS, HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE RECORD. BUT HE'S GOT TO ACTUALLY SELL ANOTHER TERM. AND WHEN I ASKED HIM WHAT DOES SUCCESS LIKE, HE STARTED TALKING ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH. YEAH, AND HE MENTIONED THE DREADED WORD 'INFRASTRUCTURE'. YEAH. (LAUGHS) WHICH ISN'T GREAT FOR A VISION. SURE, IT'S IMPORTANT, BUT AGAIN IT'S NARRATIVE. HE'S GOT TO INTEREST PEOPLE. THEY'VE BEEN THERE THREE TERMS. AND JOHN KEY'S, SORT OF, LIKE, HOKEY 'BRIGHTER FUTURE' MIGHT'VE BEEN A BIT HOKEY, BUT, ACTUALLY, IT WAS, SORT OF, QUITE SIMPLE, AND I DON'T THINK I HEARD ANYTHING FROM ENGLISH THAT ACTUALLY ENCAPSULATED THINGS IN A COUPLE OF WORDS. YEAH, I THINK HE LOOKS` HE'S LOVING THE JOB, THAT'S CLEAR. HE LOOKS LIKE A KID WITH A NEW TOY, AND HIS TOY IS THE COUNTRY. BUT I PICK UP ON WHAT YOU GUYS ARE SAYING. HE NEEDS TO PUT SOME BATTERY IN THE TOY GUN AND GET THAT GOING, COS IT NEEDS A BIT OF OOMPH. YEAH, BECAUSE HE CLEARLY IS EXCITED. HE TALKED ABOUT JUMPING OUT OF BED EVERY DAY, EXCITED TO BE IN THE JOB. BUT THAT MAYBE DOESN'T NECESSARILY COME ACROSS` NO, THAT WAS HIM BEING EXCITED. ALL RIGHT, WE TALKED ABOUT SUPER, WHICH I FOUND REALLY INTERESTING. AND HE USED THE WORDS RESET ` AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESET. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? YEAH, AND I THINK IT WAS PRETTY HUGE THERE THAT HE DIDN'T RULE OUT CHANGING THE AGE. THAT'LL CREATE A LOT OF TALK NOW THAT HE'S PREPARED TO GO THERE. WHETHER HE DOES OR NOT BY THE ELECTION IS YET TO BE SEEN. BUT THAT HAS OPENED UP A REALLY BIG POLICY DEBATE ISSUE. I THINK IT HAS, BUT I CAN'T SEE WHY HE WOULD DO IT. WOULDN'T HE MAKE A CHANGE ON THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT IMMIGRANTS HAVE TO BE IN NZ BEFORE THEY GET SUPER? FOR EXAMPLE, DIANE MAXWELL, RETIREMENT COMMISSIONER, WANTS IT TO GO FROM 10 YEARS, WHICH IT CURRENTLY IS, TO 25 YEARS. NOW, I'VE DONE THE MATHS ON WHAT THAT WOULD SAVE YOU, BUT I THINK IT WOULD PROBABLY PLAY QUITE WELL POLITICALLY. IT WOULD SAVE YOU A LOT OF MONEY. LABOUR'S BEEN DOWN RAISING THE AGE OF ELIGIBILITY TWICE AND GOT HAMMERED FOR IT BOTH TIMES. HE'S BEEN IN GOVERNMENTS WHERE` BUT THEN WHY NOT RULE IT OUT WHEN YOU ARE ASKED? HE SAID NO DRAMATIC CHANGES, SPECIFICALLY ASKED ABOUT THE AGE. IF YOU'RE NOT GONNA FLOAT THAT ONE THAT SINKS EVERYBODY, THEN RULE IT OUT. BECAUSE AT SOME STAGE HE IS GOING TO` HE IS GOING TO KEEP BEING PUT ON THE SPOT, 'ARE YOU GOING TO REAFFIRM JOHN KEY'S PROMISE?' AND AT SOME STAGE, HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO GIVE A YES OR NO TO THAT. AND IF IT'S A NO, HE HAS TO SAY WHAT HE'S GOING TO DO. IF IT'S A YES, BOY, THAT REALLY TIES IN A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT TO A COMMITMENT THAT PROBABLY SOME OF ITS CORE BASE ISN'T COMFORTABLE WITH. AND THE REAL POLITIC OF THIS IS IF WINSTON PETERS IS IN THERE, THE CHANGE OF THE AGE IS GONE. BUT THERE ARE WAYS` BUT HE SAYS HE'S GOING TO SAY BEFORE THE ELECTION, THOUGH. HE'S GOING TO SAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. I CAN'T SEE WHY YOU WOULD GIVE WINSTON A STICK LIKE THAT TO BEAT YOU WITH. THE LAST NATIONAL PRIME MINISTER TO MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE ON SUPER IN AN ELECTION YEAR WAS JENNY SHIPLEY IN 1999 WHEN SHE... ...LOWERED THE FLOOR OF SUPER, YEAH. ...REDUCED THE FLOOR OF SUPERANNUATION FROM 65 TO 60 AND GOT SMASHED ON IT. BUT WHAT ABOUT THIS? YOU'RE RIGHT. HE DIDN'T RULE IT OUT. BUT I CAN'T SEE WHY YOU WOULD DO IT. WHAT ABOUT THIS? BUILD A BRIDGE TO PETERS. BUILD A BRIDGE TO PETERS THROUGH THE IMMIGRATION CHANGES. BUILD A BRIDGE TO PETERS THROUGH AUTO-ENROLMENT IN KIWISAVER. MAYBE THAT IS THE WAY THAT BILL ENGLISH` WINSTON IS NEVER EVER GOING TO NEGOTIATE, HAVE ANYTHING BUT A BOTTOM LINE ON SUPER. WHERE'S THE POLITICAL IMPERATIVE COMING FROM TO MAKE YOU RAISE THE AGE OF ELIGIBILITY? LABOUR'S RULED IT OUT, WINSTON WOULD` BUT IT GOES BACK TO WHERE WE STARTED THIS CONVERSATION, DOESN'T IT? HE'S A NUMBERS GUY. HE'S A NUMBERS GUY, BUT THE NUMBERS HE'S MOST WORRIED ABOUT ARE ABOUT HOW MANY VOTES HE'S GOING TO GET. AND, LOOK, ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, HE COULD REAFFIRM THAT PROMISE, AND THEN HE GETS A BIT OF A BANG OUT OF THAT, YOU KNOW. I THINK HE'S PLAYING HIS CARDS HERE. HE LIKES TO NOT GIVE MUCH AWAY AND THEN COME OUT WITH A... HE DOESN'T SOCIALISE AN IDEA LIKE JOHN KEY DOES. YES. JOHN KEY WOULD` ...FLOAT IT, GET SOME FEEDBACK, SEE IF YOU WANT TO CARRY IT ON. THEN IT WOULD HAPPEN. HE DOESN'T SEEM TO OPERATE LIKE THAT. HE LIKES TO PLAY HIS CARDS CLOSE TO HIS CHEST AND THEN COME OUT WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT. YEAH, I THINK HE TOLD ME ABOUT NINE TIMES 'WAIT AND SEE'. THE OTHER THING HE DID, THOUGH` JOHN KEY HAD SIGNALLED THERE'D BE SOME KIND OF FAMILY PACKAGE IN THE BUDGET, AND HE HAS COMMITTED HIMSELF TO DOING THAT AS WELL. WHAT FORM, FROM THAT CONVERSATION, DO WE THINK IT'S GONNA TAKE? THRESHOLDS. YEAH. MOVING OUT THE THRESHOLDS. AT 48 K YOU GET TAXED 17.5%. ONCE YOU EARN A DOLLAR OVER 48 K, YOU START TO GO INTO THE 30% BRACKET. I THINK HE'S GOING TO SHIFT THAT OUT FROM 48 K. THAT THRESHOLD WILL COME OUT. AND THEN THAT DOES TARGET THAT LOW TO MIDDLE INCOME AREA THAT THEY REALLY NEED TO TARGET. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THRESHOLDS DON'T DELIVER THAT MUCH BANG FOR YOUR BUCK IN THE POCKET, YOU KNOW. I THINK IT'LL BE MORE SOPHISTICATED THAN BOTH OF THOSE. I THINK YOU'LL SEE MOVEMENT IN WORKING FOR FAMILIES WITH THE ACCOMMODATION SUPPLEMENT AS WELL ` THAT HASN'T MOVED. THEN IF YOU MOVE THE THRESHOLDS, THEN EVEN IF YOU HAVE SOME TAX CUTS IN THERE. I'M TALKING ABOUT FOUR THINGS WHERE EVERY FAMILY IS AT HOME AFTER THE BUDGET WITH A BIG CHART ON THE KITCHEN TABLE GOING, 'WHAT DO WE GET?' AND THAT IS` TAX CALCULATORS AND... ONE OF THE OTHER PHRASES HE USED MORE THAN ONCE WAS 'LIFTING INCOMES' AND 'EVERYONE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A GROWING ECONOMY'. YEAH, HE'S QUITE BIG ON THAT, AND I THOUGHT HE'S STRONGEST ON THAT SORT OF SOCIAL STUFF WITH YOU. I THINK THAT'S WHERE HE GETS QUITE PASSIONATE, AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE HE'S MOST ENGAGED. HE IS INVESTED IN THAT, ISN'T HE? BECAUSE THAT WAS HIS BABY. AND THAT'S THE DIVIDEND, YOU KNOW. IT'S NINE YEARS IN POWER. THERE'S THE DIVIDEND OF A SUCCESSFUL ECONOMY, A SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENT. AND THEY DO HAVE A LOT OF MONEY TO PLAY WITH. THEY DO. I ASKED HIM FOR A NEW IDEA, THOUGH, AND HE'S NOT KEEN ON NEW IDEAS. HE'S GOT TO FIND HIS PR PEOPLE AN ANSWER TO THAT, BECAUSE YOU'VE TRIPPED HIM ON IT SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. I DID ASK HIM AT THE LAST ELECTION DEBATE WHAT HIS NEW IDEA WAS, AND HE HAD NO NEW IDEA. BUT HE'S SAYING HE JUST WANTS` HE'S COMMITTED WITH THE DIRECTION. HE'S THE ROLLING MAUL GUY, ISN'T HE? YOU COULD READ THAT AS CONFIDENCE. HE WANTS TO SAY IT. AND HE'S RIGHT, TO A DEGREE, ISN'T HE? IT'S 20 OR 30 THINGS THAT YOU'RE DOING. BUT JUST IN TERMS OF MEDIA ENGAGEMENT, HE DOES NEED TO FIND A WAY TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION. I THINK THAT'S SYMBOLIC OF WHAT BOTH OF YOU GUYS WERE TALKING ABOUT, THOUGH, AS WELL. THE WAY THAT BILL ENGLISH CAN GET BOGGED DOWN, THAT HE CAN GET BOGGED DOWN. HE NEEDS TO HAVE ANSWERS FOR THOSE SORTS OF THINGS. HE'S THE PRIME MINISTER NOW. IT'S NOT WAIT AND SEE THAT HE GETS ASKED A WEEK BEFORE THE BUDGET. HE'S GOING TO BE ASKED ABOUT THINGS ALL OF THE TIME. AND HE NEEDS TO FIND ANSWERS AND TO STEP IT UP A BIT. HE HAS TO BE CAREFUL OF GETTING BOGGED DOWN. THAT'S PROBABLY HIS WEAKNESS. YEAH, AND, I MEAN, HE ACTUALLY DID KICK OFF THE YEAR WITH A NEW IDEA, WHICH WAS THE EXTRA POLICE. AND THEY HAVE MADE` THAT WAS LABOUR'S IDEA. YEAH, WELL, YEAH, OK. THEY PICKED IT, SO IT GETS TO BE HIS. AND THEY HAVE BEEN ROLLING OUT QUITE A FEW POLICY INITIATIVES OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. SO, REALLY, HE JUST SORT OF NEEDS TO REPRISE SOME OF THAT, AND THERE WILL BE NEW PROMISES. OK, SO HE SAYS HE'S IN THE HUNT FOR TWO ELECTIONS. WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT HIS LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE? OH, LOOK, I DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING, BECAUSE JOHN KEY SAID HE WAS GOING TO BE AROUND AS WELL. YOU JUST SAY THAT. DOES THAT QUESTION EVEN MEAN ANYTHING ANY MORE? ANNETTE KING WAS SAYING SHE WAS GOING TO BE THE DEPUTY A FEW DAYS AGO. THAT WAS ON SUNDAY, YEAH. EXACTLY. BUT HE OBVIOUSLY... HE, IN HIS MIND, IS SUGGESTING IT'S A LONG-TERM GAME FOR HIM, EVEN THOUGH HE'S BEEN THERE FOR MORE THAN QUARTER OF A CENTURY ALREADY. OH, FOR SURE, AND, YOU KNOW, HE'S BEEN WAITING HIS WHOLE LIFE FOR THIS. REMEMBER, IT'S SECOND CRACK AT IT, REMEMBER? HE WAS LEADER, OBVIOUSLY, INTO THE 2002 ELECTION. THAT DIDN'T GO SO WELL. SO, YOU KNOW, HE'S WAITED HIS WHOLE LIFE FOR THIS. HE'S NOT GOING TO BE WANTING TO EXIT` AND THAT'S WHAT HE DID SAY TO ME WHEN THE CAMERAS STOPPED ROLLING. 'YOU WAIT ROUND LONG ENOUGH, YOU GET WHAT YOU WANT.' WE'LL LEAVE IT THERE. WE'LL BE BACK SHORTLY WITH WHAT'S MAKING NEWS NEXT WEEK. DO STAY WITH US. WELCOME BACK. YOU'RE WITH THE NATION AND OUR PANEL. THE OTHER PIECE OF BIG NEWS THIS WEEK WAS NEW, WELL, A CANDIDATE WE SHOULD CALL HER AT THE MOMENT, JACINDA, FOR THE DEPUTY LEADER'S ROLE IN THE LABOUR PARTY. WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THAT? WAS ANNETTE PUSHED? I THINK SHE WAS` IT MADE CLEAR TO HER THAT THIS WAS INEVITABLE. WHAT AMAZED ME WAS THAT THERE WASN'T MORE PLANNING. I MEAN, WHO KNEW THAT JACINDA WAS GONNA WIN THE MT ALBERT BY-ELECTION? WHO COULD'VE GUESSED? WHO COULD'VE GUESSED THAT? AND WHO COULD'VE GUESSED WHAT SORT OF IMPLICATIONS THAT MIGHT HAVE? SO THEY DIDN'T SEEM` I MEAN, THEY GOT THERE IN THE END, BUT UM` BUT IT WAS STILL KIND OF MESSY, WASN'T IT? BECAUSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS, YOU HAVE ANNETTE SAYING THAT ` 'THE ONLY REASON TO GET RID OF ME IS AGEISM OR SEXISM.' ...OR SEXISM. YEAH. YEAH. AND SO WHICH WAS IT? I MEAN, SHE WAS` SHE WASN'T PUSHED, BUT SHE WAS LED TO THE WATER, I THINK IS HOW YOU WOULD PUT IT. AND, UM, ANNETTE` AND` AND, YEAH, THE PROBLEM, AS GUYON SAID, IS THEIR MANAGEMENT OF IT, BECAUSE, UM, SHE SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN OUT THERE ON A SUNDAY, MAKING IT` YOU KNOW, DIGGING HER HEELS IN, SAYING IT'S` YOU KNOW, 'IT SHOULDN'T BE ABOUT JACINDA. 'I DESERVE THIS JOB ON MERIT. SHE DOESN'T,' IS PRETTY MUCH THE SUBTEXT OF WHAT SHE WAS SAYING. YOU KNOW WHAT, THOUGH? I THINK ANDREW LITTLE DESERVES SOME CREDIT HERE. I MEAN, HE HAS MADE SOME BIG MOVES. ANNETTE KING ` HE GOT THERE IN THE END. THAT IS A MEGA MOVE. SHE WOULD'VE BEEN HARDER TO MOVE THAN MT ALBERT, AND THAT'S WHY IT'S SO TOUGH. GREG O'CONNOR IN OHARIU ` ANOTHER ONE HE'S GOT ACROSS THE LINE. WILLIE JACKSON ` EVEN THOUGH IT WAS MESSY, HE GOT THAT TOO. AND HE KEPT MARYAN STREET AND MOANA MACKEY OUT OF PARLIAMENT SO RAYMOND COULD COME IN. THEY ARE FOUR POWER PLAYS. THEN WHY NOT OWN THE POWER PLAY? YEAH. HE'S GETTING NO CREDIT. WHY SAY IT WAS SOMEBODY ELSE? HE'S GETTING NO CREDIT FOR IT. UH, WELL, I THINK, YOU KNOW, AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT'S HOW IT, SORT OF, APPEARS IN THE PUBLIC, AND, I MEAN, HIS OTHER MOVES WERE WITH WINSTON, PUTTING HIM ON THAT SECURITY COMMITTEE AND DOING IT WITHOUT HAVING A HUGE KICK-UP FROM THE GREENS, WHICH WAS ACTUALLY QUITE EXTRAORDINARY IN ITSELF. SO THIS IS` SHEARER'S` SHEARER EXITING PARLIAMENT MEANS THERE'S A SPACE ON THE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, AND THEY ARE` THEY'RE SHARING IT WITH WINSTON,... YEAH. ...WHEREAS THE GREENS KICKED UP LAST TIME WHEN THEY TOOK BOTH SPOTS, BUT NOT A WORD. YEAH. YEAH, AND I THINK, AS TRACY SAYS AND AS PADDY'S SAYING, THERE'S SOME GOOD STRATEGIC STUFF GOING ON THERE, AND IF YOU LOOK BACK AT THOSE THINGS THAT PADDY MENTIONED, I MEAN, HE'S IN A REASONABLE SPACE NOW, AND HE'S STARTING TO HAND THE OLIVE BRANCH OUT TO WINSTON PETERS. I THINK THE CHALLENGE, AS MANY HAVE POINTED OUT, COMES OVER WHETHER JACINDA OUTSHINES HIM AND ALSO HOW ATTRACTIVE IS YOUR` HAVING YOUR ROCK STAR AT NUMBER TWO? I MEAN, DO YOU TURN UP TO SEE LORDE PLAY BASS GUITAR,... (ALL LAUGH) ...IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN, AND SHE'S NOT SINGING LEAD VOCALS? DO YOU DO THAT? I HAVEN'T SEEN IT HAPPEN. I HAVEN'T SEEN THE NUMBER TWO BE YOUR BIG DRAWCARD. YEAH. IT WAS BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY '90S WITH PETERS AND BOLGER, AND THAT DIDN'T WORK WELL. SO WHAT DIFFERENCE WILL SHE MAKE? WHAT I'M TOLD FROM INSIDE LABOUR IS THEY ARE NOW GONNA OPERATE AS A TWOSOME, STARTING THIS WEEK. ARE THEY? THEY ARE GOING TO GO... ...ON BILLBOARDS, YEAH. ...ON BILLBOARDS TOGETHER,... SO YOU'RE EXPECTING` ...THEY ARE GOING TO GO TO PUBLIC EVENTS TOGETHER. SO YOU EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE AND ARDERN'S FACE ON THE BILLBOARDS THIS YEAR? I RECKON. STARTING THIS WEEK AT PUBLIC EVENTS AROUND THE COUNTRY, YOU WILL SEE LITTLE AND ARDERN GO TOGETHER AS TWO. THAT WILL BE THE TACTIC THEY ARE GONNA USE. AND I AGREE WITH YOU; YOU KNOW, I WOULDN'T TURN UP TO SEE LORDE PLAY BASS GUITAR. BUT THEN IS` IT'S HIGH-RISK. IS LITTLE GONNA BE LOOKING OVER HIS SHOULDER? HE COULD BE` LOOK, NOT SIX MONTHS OUT FROM THE ELECTION, NO. I MEAN, THE LEADERSHIP IS SET. AFTER THE ELECTION, WHO KNOWS? BUT HE'S TAKING A HUGE RISK, BUT... HE IS. AND CREDIT TO HIM THERE. ...IT'S WORTH IT TO WIN. HE'S LOOKING` UH, BEFORE HE LOOKS OVER HIS SHOULDER, HE'S LOOKING AT SOMETHING ELSE FIRST, AND THAT'S CALLED SEPTEMBER 23. THIS HAD TO BE DONE. OK, SO, IN A WEEK WHERE BILL ENGLISH WAS OUT THERE TALKING ABOUT WORKERS ON DRUGS AND, UM, ANDREW LITTLE WAS MAKING THIS MOVE, APPARENTLY, BEHIND THE SCENES, WHO WON THE WEEK? LABOUR, 100%. UM, AND WE TALKED EARLIER ON ABOUT, UH, BILL ENGLISH GETTING BOGGED DOWN THEY CANNOT HAVE TOO MANY WEEKS WHERE THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT IMMIGRATION, HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ` MILLION-DOLLAR HOUSES IN AUCKLAND. THEY GET BOGGED DOWN. THEY CAN LOSE THE ELECTION IF THEY SPEND TOO MUCH TIME HAVING TO TALK ABOUT THIS. AND LABOUR CLEARLY WON THE WEEK WITH THOSE POWER PLAYS. YEAH, I AGREE, AND BILL ENGLISH IS GOOD WHEN HE'S GOOD, BUT HE CAN GET BOGGED DOWN. AND I THINK HE DID A LITTLE BIT TODAY IN YOUR INTERVIEW WITH HIM. AND I THINK HE HAD THAT SORT OF WEEK THAT WE SAW AT THE START OF THE YEAR WHERE HE'S REACTING VERY SLOWLY TO TRUMP, AND IT STARTS TO GET ON TOP OF HIM. HE'S NOT AS AGILE AS JOHN KEY, I DON'T THINK. OK. WELL, THE OTHER INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE LABOUR SITUATION IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT THEIR LINE-UP, THERE'S ONLY, I THINK, ABOUT THREE PEOPLE LEFT THERE THAT HAVE EVER BEEN A MINISTER BEFORE. AND THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE A DISADVANTAGE FOR THEM, I DON'T THINK. I MEAN, THEY'RE TRYING TO SELL` JOHN KEY WASN'T A MINISTER. YEAH, JOHN KEY WASN'T, STEVEN JOYCE WASN'T, CHRIS FINLAYSON WASN'T, AND TIM GROSER WASN'T. THERE ARE A WHOLE BUNCH OF PEOPLE THAT WERE VERY SENIOR IN THAT MINISTRY WHO WENT STRAIGHT INTO CABINET. HE'S TRYING TO SELL A NEW VISION. I MEAN, THAT'S THE ONLY THING HE CAN DO. HE HAS TO BE DIVORCED FROM THE LAST GOVERNMENT. AND ENGLISH IS TRYING TO SELL STABILITY, CERTAINTY. SO THE NEW VISION IS ALL LABOUR CAN OFFER, AND THAT MEANS NEW PEOPLE. WE'VE ONLY GOT A LITTLE BIT OF TIME LEFT, BUT NO PANEL IS COMPLETE WITHOUT DONALD TRUMP. SO THE SPEECH THIS WEEK, SOME PEOPLE SAY IT WAS A CHANGE IN LANGUAGE AND DEMEANOUR AND IT WAS THE OLIVE BRANCH. WELL, IT'S KIND OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, WHEN IT'S BEEN RAINING FOR THREE WEEKS AND YOU LIVE IN WELLINGTON AND IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY AND YOU GO, 'OH MY GOD, IT'S JUST FANTASTIC.' ONE 25-DEGREES DAY ALL SUMMER. NO, NO, AND IT'S 18 DEGREES. YEAH, 18, YEAH. AND SO, YEAH, OK, BECAUSE HE'S BEEN SO UNPRESIDENTIAL ` LET'S FACE IT, WHETHER YOU LIKE HIS POLICIES OR NOT ` AND THEN WHEN YOU APPEAR PRESIDENTIAL` DID YOU THINK THAT WAS PRESIDENTIAL MARCHING OUT A GROUP OF VICTIMS, A LOT OF VICTIMS? DID YOU THINK THAT WAS PRESIDENTIAL OF OPPORTUNIST? NOT FOR MY TASTE. NO. AND, I MEAN, A LOT OF HIS SPEECH` IT WAS A VERY DARK SPEECH. IT WAS TOTALLY SCRIPTED, THOUGH. HE SHOULD'VE BEEN ABLE TO APPEAR PRESIDENTIAL WITH A SET PIECE LIKE THAT, TOTALLY SCRIPTED FROM A TEAM OF SPEECH WRITERS AND EVERYTHING. I MEAN, IT CERTAINLY APPEALED TO HIS BASE, AND IT WAS MUCH MORE OF A CAMPAIGN SPEECH THAN YOU'D EXPECT. AND, YEAH, I THINK FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, A NZ AUDIENCE, WE'RE SQUEAMISH ABOUT THAT SORT OF THING` ...OF BRINGING OUT THE WIDOWS. BUT I'LL TELL YOU THIS. THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE. BECAUSE IF YOU GO TO THE CONVENTIONS, THEY BRING OUT THE WIDOWS, THEY DO SPEECHES LIKE THIS, AND IT GOES DOWN A TREAT. MAYBE SOME OF THAT IS OUR NZ STYLE. IT IS VERY MUCH, YEAH. WE WILL LEAVE IT THERE. BEFORE WE GO, LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT WHAT COULD BE MAKING THE NEWS NEXT WEEK. MINISTER FOR WOMEN PAULA BENNETT WILL ON TUESDAY RELEASE NEW RESEARCH INTO THE GENDER PAY GAP. ON THURSDAY SENIOR MPS FROM THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES WILL HAVE THEIR FIRST ELECTION DEBATE AT AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY. PADDY GOWER WILL BE MODERATING THAT. AND THE LABOUR PARTY CAUCUS WILL VOTE IN ITS NEW DEPUTY LEADER ON TUESDAY. WE CAN'T WAIT FOR THE RESULT. (LAUGHS) YEAH, I CAN'T WAIT TO SEE WHO IT IS (!) NOW, THAT IS ALL FROM US FOR TODAY. WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK. IT'S A CRACKER DAY OUTSIDE. ENJOY IT. CAPTIONS BY ALANA DRAYTON, IMOGEN STAINES AND DESNEY SHAW. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ CAPTIONS WERE MADE POSSIBLE WITH FUNDING FROM NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017