MORENA. GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M JACK TAME. TODAY ` IS A CRITICAL GOVERNMENT SUPPORT PARTNER IN TROUBLE IN HIS OWN SEAT? PETER DUNNE'S BEEN HERE LONG ENOUGH. I THINK PEOPLE WANT A CHANGE. IT'S ALWAYS BEEN PETER DUNNE. HELLO, PETER. WE HAVE RESULTS OF A Q+A-COLMAR BRUNTON SNAP POLL THAT MAY WORRY PETER DUNNE AND NATIONAL. WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT WHAT THAT POLL COULD MEAN FOR NATIONAL. CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR AND FINANCE MINISTER STEVEN JOYCE WILL FRONT UP TO POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN ` OUR LEAD INTERVIEW THIS MORNING. AND LABOUR'S NEW FRESHWATER POLICY ` A PLAN TO MAKE WATER BOTTLERS AND FARMERS PAY FOR THE WATER THEY USE. THE ROYALTIES WOULD GO TOWARDS CLEANING UP OUR WATERWAYS, BUT FEDERATED FARMERS SAY RURAL COMMUNITIES COULD BE CRIPPLED. CORIN WILL INTERVIEW LABOUR'S WATER POLICY SPOKESPERSON, DAVID PARKER. AND WE'LL HAVE ANALYSIS FROM OUR PANEL ` AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT MICHELLE BOAG, AND MATT MCCARTEN, LABOUR'S FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF. WE'LL HEAR FROM YOU ALL SOON, BUT FIRST HERE'S CORIN. Matt this is the first time you have joined us since labours marae saga. I was going to run the project. It went pear-shaped. I had to take responsibility for that and as Michelle knows when you make mistakes you stop and it is end of story. Forced retirement. Are you working for any political parties in this campaign? I have had offers but that would only make matters worse. I always know that when you become a story when you should not be it is best to take response ability and shut up. I would not admit to any political roles at all at the moment because once you have made a mistake it is best not to keep going. When you are digging a hole, stop digging. I have done my penance and I am back. THANKS, JACK. AND THIS POLL WILL BE A MASSIVE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PETER DUNNE, WHO IS A LONG-TIME MP FOR OHARIU AND ` ACCORDING TO THIS POLL ` IS FACING A FIGHT TO KEEP HIS SEAT. WHEN COLMAR BRUNTON ASKED ELIGIBLE VOTERS WHICH CANDIDATE THEY WOULD SUPPORT, 48% PICKED GREG O'CONNOR, FORMER POLICE ASSOCIATION HEAD, NOW LABOUR CANDIDATE; 34% CHOSE PETER DUNNE. THE NATIONAL CANDIDATE, BRETT HUDSON, WHO'S SUPPOSED TO BE KEEPING A LOW PROFILE IS ON 14; AND JESSICA HAMMOND-DOUBE, FROM THE OPPORTUNITIES PARTY IS ON 2%. The Greens are not sending a candidate. THE PARTY VOTE IS QUITE A DIFFERENT STORY. NATIONAL IS ON 46%; LABOUR ON 35. 12% FOR THE GREEN PARTY, AND NEW ZEALAND FIRST IS ON 4%. SOME DETAILS ABOUT THAT POLL ` COLMAR BRUNTON BEGAN POLLING LAST SATURDAY, FINISHING UP ON WEDNESDAY. 501 ELIGIBLE VOTERS WERE POLLED, WITH A MARGIN OF ERROR OF PLUS OR MINUS 4.4%. SO LET'S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON IN THIS MIDDLE-CLASS WELLINGTON SUBURB WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON THE ELECTION. HERE'S WHENA OWEN. JUST NORTH OF WELLINGTON CITY ARE THE STREETS OF JOHNSONVILLE, KHANDALLAH, TAWA AND CROFTON DOWNS. DON'T BE FOOLED; RIGHT NOW IN THESE PLEASANT DORMITORY SUBURBS, A STRATEGIC BATTLE IS GOING ON, AND THE STAKES ARE HIGH. THIS PLACE IS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE YOU'VE GOT THE NATIONAL PARTY CANDIDATE BEGGING ON HIS KNEES FOR PEOPLE NOT TO VOTE FOR HIM. THAT'S PRETTY UNIQUE. YOU'RE QUITE HAPPY FOR US TO PUT A BILLBOARD ON IT? THE BIGGER, THE BETTER. LABOUR'S HOPE FOR OHARIU, GREG O'CONNOR, HAS LIVED IN THE ELECTORATE AND PLAYED RUGBY FOR THE AREA. FOR TWO DECADES, HE WAS THE FACE OF THE POLICE ASSOCIATION. IT'S THAT EXPERIENCE OF THE REAL WORLD AND APPLYING IT TO POLITICS RATHER THAN JUST BEING CAREER POLITICIAN. THAT'S A REFERENCE, PERHAPS, TO INCUMBENT MP PETER DUNNE. HE'S REPRESENTED THIS AREA FOR 33 YEARS ` FIRST FOR LABOUR AND THEN HIS OWN UNITED FUTURE. AND WHAT'S YOUR FAVOURITE STORY? (CHILDREN SHOUT) MY ONE IS` SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE DINOSAUR STOMP! SATURDAY NIGHT` MY GOODNESS. (LAUGHS) DECADES LATER, THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER IS MIXING WITH NEW GENERATIONS OF OHARIANS. BUT DOES HE STILL HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE WIDER COMMUNITY? I BELIEVE SO. I THINK THAT THE ELECTORATE'S CHANGED A LOT. THE FEEDBACK I GET IS STILL GOOD, AND, CERTAINLY, THE SUPPORT I'M GETTING IS GOOD, SO YES. BUT HOW DOES THE ELECTORATE FEEL ABOUT THEIR LONG-SERVING MP? PETER DUNNE ` BEEN HERE LONG ENOUGH. I THINK PEOPLE WANT A CHANGE. DO YOU THINK PETER DUNNE HAS WIDE SUPPORT HERE STILL? ABSOLUTELY. ABSOLUTELY. GREG O'CONNOR'S A NICE CHAP. END OF STORY. (LAUGHS) PETER DUNNE ` HAS HE GOT YOUR SUPPORT? NO. NO. HE HASN'T? DO YOU THINK PETER DUNNE WILL BE RETURNED? YES, I DO. YEAH. RIGHT. I THINK HE'S VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. HE'S GOOD FOR THE AREA, IS HE? YES INDEED. IT'S TIME FOR A CHANGE. IT WAS TIME FOR A CHANGE LAST TIME. 'BECAUSE IT'S TIME FOR A CHANGE' IS REALLY A SILLY ARGUMENT. I THINK YOU'VE GOTTA ACTUALLY LOOK AT WHAT PEOPLE DO, WHAT THEY STAND FOR, WHAT THEY ACHIEVE. WE'VE BUILT STRONG BONDS, STRONG RAPPORT, AND I THINK THAT THAT'S THE WAY YOU PROGRESS A COMMUNITY FORWARD ` NOT JUST SIMPLY SAYING, 'WELL, IT'S TIME TO CHANGE THE FURNITURE.' IN THIS ELECTORATE, THE ISSUES ARE UNIVERSAL. ON A LOCAL LEVEL, ASK WHAT CONCERNS THEM HERE MOST, AND THEY'LL SAY... THE MALL. (LAUGHS) THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HAPPENING WITH THE MALL ` ANYTHING HAPPENING. YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF SHOPS CLOSING DOWN. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LOT OF THINGS HAPPENING WITHOUT GETTING FEEDBACK FROM THE COMMUNITY. AFTERNOON, GUYS. THE PLACE TO HEAR OHARIU'S POLITICS DEBATED IS AT THIS TABLE IN A JOHNSONVILLE PUB EVERY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE IS A STAGE, AND YOU'RE ALL BIT PLAYERS. (CHUCKLING) GREG O'CONNOR'S JOINED THEM OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, BUT THEY DON'T ALL SHARE HIS POLITICS. TODAY THERE'S SOME CONFUSION ABOUT WHAT NATIONAL HAS ASKED THEIR VOTERS TO DO IN THE ELECTORATE. THEY ARE STANDING A CANDIDATE. ON THE LIST? NO. (ALL TALK OVER ONE ANOTHER) HE IS STANDING, AND WE CAN PISS HIM OFF BY VOTING FOR HIM. WELL, HE'S GONE DOWN ON HANDS AND KNEES AND BEGGED YOU ALL TO VOTE FOR PETER DUNNE. I'M NOT GOING TO. WELL, HE HAS. HE HAS. 'HE' IS FIRST-TERM NATIONAL LIST MP BRETT HUDSON. YOU'LL SEE HIM ON SOME OF THE BILLBOARDS AROUND THE ELECTORATE, BUT MOSTLY, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PARTY VOTE. MY MESSAGE ` VERY CLEAR MESSAGE ` TO NATIONAL SUPPORTERS IN OHARIU IS, 'GIVE YOUR PARTY VOTE TO NATIONAL, 'BECAUSE THAT WILL GET US THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF MPS, 'AND GIVE YOUR ELECTORATE VOTE TO PETER DUNNE 'SO THAT WE CAN FORM THE BEST POSSIBLE SUPPORT ARRANGEMENT 'IN GOVERNMENT TO DELIVER FOR ALL NEW ZEALANDERS.' I'VE NEVER DONE ANYTHING EASY. I'M NOT ONLY TAKING ON PETER DUNNE; I'M TAKING ON, WELL, WHAT WOULD APPEAR NOW TWO NATIONAL PARTY CANDIDATES. IN THE LAST ELECTION, NATIONAL TOOK THE PARTY VOTE WITH A 10,000 VOTE MAJORITY OVER LABOUR. BRETT HUDSON SAYS HE'S ON THE BALLOT TO COMMUNICATE NATIONAL'S MESSAGE AND GIVE VOTERS A CHOICE. I WOULD REALLY QUESTION A COMMENT FROM A LABOUR CANDIDATE OR, QUITE FRANKLY, FROM ONE OF THEIR SUPPORT PARTNERS, AND THEY'VE GOT THIS COSY LITTLE ARRANGEMENT IN OHARIU, WHERE THE GREENS AREN'T EVEN STANDING A CANDIDATE. NOW, I LOOK AT THAT AND I THINK TO MYSELF, 'REALLY, THE GREENS ARE TRYING TO HERD VOTERS LIKE CATTLE 'INTO VOTING A CERTAIN WAY BY REMOVING CHOICE FROM THEM.' BACK AT THE PUB, THE GUYS ARE SHOWING THEIR CARDS. AND I TOLD GREG STRAIGHT OUT I WILL BE VOTING NATIONAL, BUT GREG WILL GET MY ELECTORATE VOTE. YOU COULD SAY THE OHARIU ELECTORATE IS A SORT OF MICROCOSM OF NEW ZEALAND. THERE ARE THE RURAL VALLEYS OUT THE BACK HERE; AREAS OF SOCIAL HOUSING; THE LEAFY, EXPENSIVE SUBURBS; AND IT'S THE MOST ETHNICALLY DIVERSE AREA OUTSIDE GREATER AUCKLAND. THIS COUNTRY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE THE WORLD'S BEST MULTI-ETHNIC, MULTICULTURAL SOCIETY. BACK IN THE SUBURBS, WE WANTED TO FIND OUT WHETHER RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS HAD SHIFTED OPINION. IT ISN'T THE JACINDA EFFECT THAT'S MAYBE PERSUADING YOU? IT MIGHT BE. (CHUCKLES) JACINDA ARDERN COMING IN ` DO YOU THINK THAT'S CHANGED THINGS A BIT? I THINK SO ` FOR ME, PERSONALLY. IT'S HELPED EVERYTHING. IT'S HELPED THE WHOLE POLITICAL SCENE. IT'S THE WAKE-UP EVERYONE NEEDED. THE JACINDA EFFECT? I'M NOT SURE WHAT THE JACINDA EFFECT IS. IT'S FRANKLY TOO EARLY TO TELL. WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT HEARING MUCH OF IT AT THIS STAGE. PEOPLE ARE FOCUSING ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES, FOCUSING ON WHAT THEY WANT FROM THIS ELECTION. WHEN DO YOU GO TO SCHOOL? CHILD: WE'RE STARTING. YEAH. HOW OLD ARE YOU NOW? PETER DUNNE HOPES IN A FEW YEARS, WHEN THESE CHILDREN ARE AT SCHOOL, HE'LL BE VISITING THEM AGAIN AS THEIR LOCAL MP. (CHUCKLES) WHENA OWEN REPORTING THERE. NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER STEVEN JOYCE WAS WATCHING TOO. WE'LL HEAR FROM HIM AFTER THE BREAK. WELCOME BACK, AND GOOD MORNING TO STEVEN JOYCE, NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER AND FINANCE MINISTER. Let's start with your campaign hat on first. Ohariu big trouble therefore Peter Dunne and your support partner. Peter has it all ahead of him. There is a lot of National party voters who are saying they will support him. The Greens have gone over to Greg by the looks of it. We have been doing our own numbers there and they are a bit closer and more don't know. We are encouraging people to support Peter Dunne because he gives support to the government and we have had good stable government over the last few years compared to other countries and Peter has contributed to that. If you got all of the 14% that Brett Hudson is getting it would not be enough. It depends on a number of things. Whether anybody shifts. There was a lot of shift in the last couple of weeks. People are following issues around the country. It is going to become more interesting. All of the left presumably have sorted out their seats. It will be the leaders and deputy leaders and all the parties. Maybe Winston Peters wants to kick Ron marks just to get some attention. I assume we are done with leadership changes. Do you want to hone people's thinking and Ohariu and send the prime minister there for a cup of tea? I don't know about that. We are being very clear. We are keen for Ohariu voters to support Peter Dunne because he has brought stability to the government. We have instability compared to Australia and the UK. For a new government to achieve that same level of political stability in the economic progress we have achieved is unlikely. Will you have a campaign event that is staged in Ohariu to convince the 14% of voters were voting for National? I don't know about that. You might find David Seymour behind in Epsom sometimes. It happens quite late. Whether it is in Ohariu or Epsom or anywhere else. The moves happen quite late. This is a realisation now that Peter Dunne is in trouble. The Maori Party are not doing as well. You will have to rely Winston Peters. I'm not sure about that. You think you can make it without Winston Peters? We will see what we can get. We have proven in the last three elections that if people want to see are selected the best and most stable government that you can get as when you can have options. You don't want just one option. He is the last cab on your rank and now he is moving up to the top because the other guys are falling away. That is not true. It is tough to say that the Maori Party are falling away. There has been a lot of talk on the left that Te Ururoa Flavell is in trouble. I have not seen a poll that has suggested that. There was a Labour internal poll. The UMR ones are scientific but they tend to be biased. Are your polls biased as well? We will have to wait and see. We are about three points shy of where we want to be and need to be. We have a lot of work to do over the next few weeks and it is four weeks until the polls open. We want to change people's minds and show the sort of government you can expect under the the National government commit to the alternative under Labour. If the Opportunities Party were getting close to 4% would you talk to them? Very unlikely. Gareth Morgan's policies are largely interchangeable with the left. I would not have thought so. That is one for the leader not for the campaign chair? Things changing campaigns. Last week who knows? Stability tends to be not on the left. What about the Jacinda effect? It is having an impact on Ohariu. They are all close. It is MMP. Nobody wins by a big margin. People think that we have one by big margins but we have not. Each time we have only got there by a seat or two. It is MMP. I think it is slightly different and it was looking like a 2002 campaign with everybody's votes going all over the shop but now it is like 2005 we National voters and Labour voters... you have been attacking the Labour Party saying they are a tax-and-spend party. Do you see this as a party that is going to tax and you are going to offer our tax cuts are you? We have a strong economic performance. A number of things second contributed to that. Taxing a productive economy is not one of them. It is part of the differentiation. Labour are saying they will do a regional fuel tax in Auckland and possibly elsewhere. They are going to do a water tax that they will not tell anyone what the amount is going to be. Yesterday Grant Robertson is saying they might do a capital gains tax. He said he will have a tax working group. That is three years down the track. They will form a tax working group. It is another way` it another way of saying and it is a very important argument at the selection, you either make a tax policy clear or you don't. They are clear. They have a water tax and a petrol tax. They don't know whatthe water tax is. And then they will hand it to a tax working group for the capital gains tax. I want to come back to water. You are saying you would be okay with a royalty on bottled water but the farming sector is off-limits. You would not impose any pollution tax or anything on them. Our food producers are some of the most efficient in the world but they are in a competitive situation. Whether it is in Hawke's Bay or the Bay of Plenty or Canterbury or Marlborough or somewhere around the country, they need to be competitive. More taxes will reduce the employment and challenge the viability of regional New Zealand. Have you put that focus on the agricultural sector at the expense of the environment and water quality? Absolutely not. Nobody can argue that. We are putting this National policy in place. We are requiring people to measure their water use. And control the water use. And we have got the farmers fencing of the waterways. I will argue it. Your chief science adviser has argued that is a clear link between intensifying dairy and water quality. The Parliamentary Commissioner has consistently warned about intensifying dairy farming is hurting water. The Canterbury medical officer of health said the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff because they are worried about pregnant women drinking water from private bores. The whole issue of how a region actually affords to clean up their waterways. they are being cleaned up now. You have taken your eye off the ball the last nine years. No. It was for the 20 or 30 years previous. These things were done over the last nine years so there is no way people can be critical of the progress is government has made Ken head to all previous government. You have encourage more dairy farming and there is 100 million more cows. There are stringent requirements around the environment. You think that has worked well in Canterbury? I think now working. The commission has come in there. It is because the system was not working previously over the last few decades. That is why the Commissioner is in there. Canterbury has an operative water plan for the first time ever. We have given them a National policy statement and we have made all the progress. We don't want to tax the regions to make them poorer. There is no part of the world where there is a poor country that does a good job and its environment. You have to balance it. Can you give me an answer have we reached peak cow? The argument from these guys as unless you reduce the amount of dairy or slow it down you will never get good water quality again. That is unfair to pick on the dairy industry on its own. This is a very big problem in urban waterways. These people are very quiet about the quality of urban waterways because they don't want to upset consumers. The left are keeping very quiet on some of the quality of municipal waters and that is really important. They are proposing to charge the farmers, horticulturalists and winemakers and leave the industrial uses in the cities completely off Scott free. I will ask about that. When you allow the cow numbers to increase? Do you see there being a limit you can reach? Most of the growth in the dairy sector is productivity around higher value usages of dairy which is fantastic. Whether there can be more cows in any one area it is controlled by local governments in those areas and that is the right place for that to be done. You don't want someone like me saying the exact number of cows in Taranaki is X. I firmly believe that we can improve environmental outcomes and increase the economic performance of our regions and if we don't we will end up with poor regions and bad waterways. You can't do these things unless you have the money to do them. Our farmers are profitable and they are fencing off waterways and taking the steps required. But they are not paying for their fair share of the pollution. That is Mr Parker's argument.But they are paying. What are they paying in terms of pollution? You talk to them. They are doing stands to put their stock on and winter. That is mitigation. That is the true outcome. If you just text them you take the income of them and give them less ability to respond. What about other farming? You are giving them a subsidy at the moment by not making them pay for it. If you say what we should do is taxis people so their income drops and I can't afford to change the way they farm is this a good idea? They are either competitive on their own or not. If you say take out$100,000 of a farmer's income, that is money they don't have it` I don't want to hit them with a 50 or 100 K tax just because David Parker and the Labour Party think so. That is crazy. If you want people to invest in fencing of the waterways and change their farm systems, then don't tax them into oblivion. It is the left approach. The New Zealand economy is performing well. We have many steps in place to improve our environment and the way we are for those things like electric vehicles, as to be wealthy enough to make those changes. THANKS, CORIN. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE PANEL THERE. BUT WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK TOO. WE'RE ON TWITTER @NZQANDA. YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A@TVNZ.CO.NZ. OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF. EACH TEXT COSTS 50 CENTS. WE'LL BRING IN OUR PANEL AFTER THE BREAK AND PICK UP ON THAT POOR SHOWING FOR PETER DUNNE IN OUR Q+A COLMAR BRUNTON SNAP POLL. IT'S AN IMPORTANT SEAT FOR NATIONAL TOO. WHAT COULD THAT MEAN FOR THE GOVERNMENT? WELCOME BACK. WE'VE GOT A LOT TO DISCUSS WITH OUR PANEL. LET'S GO OVER THE NUMBERS FOR THAT COLMAR BRUNTON SNAP POLL AGAIN. WHEN ASKED WHICH CANDIDATE THEY WOULD SUPPORT, 48% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS PICKED GREG O'CONNOR, FORMER POLICE ASSOCIATION HEAD, NOW LABOUR CANDIDATE; 34% CHOSE PETER DUNNE; THE NATIONAL CANDIDATE, BRETT HUDSON, IS ON 14; AND JESSICA HAMMOND DOUBE, FROM THE OPPORTUNITIES PARTY, IS ON 2%. COLMAR BRUNTON PROVIDED ANOTHER INTERESTING BIT OF POLLING THAT I WANT TO SHOW YOU. THOSE ELIGIBLE VOTERS WERE ASKED WHETHER THEY VOTED FOR PETER DUNNE AT THE LAST ELECTION, AND IF SO, WHICH WAY THEY WERE VOTING THIS TIME. 63% WERE VOTING FOR PETER DUNNE AGAIN. 27% WERE SWITCHING THEIR VOTE TO LABOUR'S GREG O'CONNOR, AND 10% WERE PICKING ANOTHER CANDIDATE. Michelle, I was not with you. Do you think Peter Dunne is in real trouble? Yes I do. I think the National party is in trouble. Steven Joyce made the point about him are contributing to stability are valid. The Greens have moved out of the race. They do not have a candidate. All that support has gone to Labour. Will the National party pull Brett Hudson because even if you say as many times as you like we want you to vote for Peter Dunne there will be people who go into the ballot box and see the National party candidate and ticket. I think it also makes the Epsom race even more important because of the National party do not have Peter Dunne they really need ACT. Let's consider the National party's position in regards to ACT and the Maori Party. And the reliability of New Zealand first and Winston Peters. Let's focus on Ohariu. What you put down to the strengthening of support of Labour? That said he almost lost it last time. To Shelley Anderson the Labour candidate, with a very strong green candidate in there. Now that has changed. Also it gets to a point after 33 years that people just think it is time for a change. Is it apathy? You have a strong Labour candidate and no green candidate, and and Peter Dunne the change in the Labour Party leadership the dynamics of change. The wind is behind the sales. I was watching Peter Dunne on TV and I thought dead man walking. Once you have a smell about it the role is over. I personally think he was lucky to survive last time. I thought he was in trouble this time. We have all be doing polling it is not just a recent thing. The National party are doing more to support him now but they put a letter out to every voters saying vote for Peter Dunne when Peter Dunne and ACT did the deal with National, they had a lot of other MPs. Now they are one MP parties. Why are we keeping these people and as proxies? They don't make any difference. Peter Dunne is not going to get any more MPs. They make a difference to who governance. The only way the National party will govern is of Winston smiles on them. What you make of these poll results? I think Peter Dunne is not doing that badly. He is where he was at the last election. And the election before that and the one before that. But the other point is that Labour is doing well at 48%. There are six weeks to the election and we don't know how long the Jacinda effect will last. If it goes through then it will look like he will go out, but there are too many variables to consider right now. We have seen so many changes in the last few weeks. You don't want to be out of the country for more than a couple of days the way things are going. If you look at those poll results, to add Peter Dunne's support to the National support you only get about even. Do you expect National to pull Brett Hudson? They are worried about impacting on their party vote. It is not all electors who are sophisticated when they walk into the polling booth and work it all out. They have been very deliberate. People who go about their daily lives don't look in the newspapers every day to see what directions they have been given by political parties. If they do it, which I don't think they will, it would show panic that they have lost the seat. Brett has been the sole soldier there. If it was pulled, it would mean National now knows that Peter Dunne has lost. Then you get the momentum. Everyone goes well this is game on. The wind will go behind Greg. Let's consider this poll result in the broader context of National coalition partners at this stage. Do you think it is possible come September we will have an election result where Peter Dunne and United Future are gone and the Maori Party, if Waiariki goes to Tamati Coffey and Te Ururoa Flavell finds himself out of Parliament, you never know but nothing has changed in the big picture for the last couple of years. Winston has always looked like he would hold the balance of power and he still looks like he will hold the balance of power. So all parties and the National party in particular will be asking for the party vote because that will give us the strongest possible claim on government. Whether they are negotiating with Winston or not. The National party will be very pleased their figures have held up very well, in spite of the Jacinda effect. Yes we don't know how long it will last and how many more taxes they will announce and so I still think the big picture has not changed a lot. Raymond, we heard campaign Dir Steven Joyce reference past elections. He made an interesting comment about Epsom and that David Seymour is behind the moment as well. As is typical of campaigns? He mentioned 2005. In bad elections, small parties like the Greens get one in five votes. 80% go to the two major political parties and it becomes a two horse race. This election could be another one like 2005. The Greens and New Zealand first might not get far over 5%. Who knows? It comes down to very small numbers about which of the two major political parties form the government. We are hearing the words Jacinda effect from everyone. What about Bill English? When will we see him in full campaign mode or is it? Grey and white and dull has been put as solid and steady. He had a perfect match with Andrew Little. It was to very similar respected, intelligent solid people. The game has now changed and National has to rejig, but I think Bill English is in real trouble. He looks old and tired. Having Steven Joyce being the spokesperson for the campaign reinforces that. It is all old and tired. Bill will have to come out with something completely new and I don't think they have it. Will he attacked some potential perceived weakness regarding Jacinda Ardern? I think what we have seen the last week was very strategic. There was no point in the National party rating on her parade and attacking Jacinda. It was quite deliberate. You don't try to badmouth somebody and you just congratulate them get on with the job. People start to focus on Jacinda may be the new leader but it is still the same old team. That team of incompetence compared to Bill English` I'm talking about the Labour Party. Very few have actually run anything. It is new and fresh. We have got people who have done a bloodied the job and why throw that away? Bill English will be seen by many as a safe pair of hands. So much changes taking place at the moment and he represents stability for many voters. He is a proven finance minister and now proving himself as Prime Minister. We can't discount just because he doesn't have the charisma of Jacinda Ardern. Or John Key. Or David Lange. He has other strengths such as is ability to present economic policy that Labour might be scratching. Let's pause there. WE'LL PICK UP ON LABOUR'S FRESHWATER POLICY AGAIN, BECAUSE WATER SPOKESPERSON DAVID PARKER WILL BE JOINING CORIN AFTER THE BREAK. CAN HE BREAKDOWN THE REAL COST OF HIS WATER ROYALTY SCHEME? THAT'S NEXT. IT COULD BE A HUGE COST IT COULD BE A HUGE COST THAT ACTUALLY PUTS SOME TO THE BRINK OF BANKRUPTCY IF NOT OUT OF BUSINESS. FEDERATED FARMERS PRESIDENT KATIE MILNE REACTING TO LABOUR'S ANNOUNCEMENT THIS WEEK THAT IT WOULD INTRODUCE A ROYALTY SCHEME FOR BUSINESSES ` AND THAT INCLUDES FARMERS AND GROWERS ` WHO USE WATER FOR COMMERCIAL PURPOSES. DAVID PARKER, LABOUR'S WATER SPOKESPERSON, JOINS ME NOW. Let's clear this up. What is the rate that you would charge farmers? I supposed to water bottlers, it's one or two cents per thousand liters. Two cents. What is that going to equate to? Steven Joyce says it's about 50,000. It would be about $100 million across the whole country per year. It is what Nick Smith since we need to spend every year to clear the waterways. They put a working group on. So you get the credit for going for that. But going after our productive sector, putting an extra tax on making them more Uncompetitive, does make sense? We once had talk about $18 cabbage. That is the most expensive cabbage on the planet. If farmers do have to pay an increased cost, they will pass it on to consumers. Let's say they did, it will be a tiny percent per cabbage. In respect of milk and cheese, that is set by international prices. If there is a cost of cleaning up our rivers because that is our birthright, for our kids to put their head under our waters, last week it was thought it was going to be $100 million per annum for the central government. Who should pay that? That is all we are asking. Not percent per liter, like with the water bottlers. We are seeing two cents per thousand liters. Why are you giving exemption to Coca-Cola and other businesses in the cities. Coca-Cola already pay a dollar per cubic meter to the Auckland Council. Were not going to charge them twice. Many were in the farming sector will be frustrated. It is them polluting our riverS so I don't know how that is unfair. Let's deal with one of the issue Steven Joyce said. Over the last decade, cities have improved their quality` but they do pollute waters. Not as much as the others. Factories have cleaned up. Where do they get the money from? Who should pay? Should the polluter pay? Or should the taxpayer pay? But how should people enjoy their lifestyle and standards living? We are all reliant on the productivity of the sector. We are not penalizing them. We are saying that they should make a contribution to clean up our rivers so that they in you and your children and I can swim in our local waters in summer. You haven't actually dealt with the iwi rights. There has to be some sort of see Lord deal with the water bottling. The Waitangi tribunal says you have to. That came up with the current government was flocking of the shares. You have to negotiate with them as to how much. But not one cent states with the central government. You think you can do that without saying who owns the water? I say everyone note owns the water. It doesn't take you very far. Other people have more interest in the water than others. We are saying for the likes of those water bottlers, they should pay. To be fair, Nick Smith is going slow on this, but you do need to be slow. That is a fair point in respect, and need to be resolved. But going so does not mean you need to go backwards. It said it increase, a significant increase in livestock activity should not be permitted any more. Each cow produces the effluent equivalent to 14 people. I want to come back to the Maori` why should Maori trust the Labour Party? We've been explicit that we will settle the treaty claim that is recognized by the Waitangi tribunal. No one else is saying that. Why should they trust you? I actually think people have the right to go to court if they feel dissatisfied. But your government remove that. That was the same mistake that was made by this government with the Kermadecs. Some of Maori say give us a share of the royalty. I don't think there is anyone who doesn't want to clean up our rivers. The farmers are now saying that they are causing the problem but they're not willing to make a contribution to clean up. In the last Labour government, we had taxes for the greenhouse emissions. And then they got cold feet and then there was come sort of compromise. Why should labor be trusted? At this season, Federated farmers don't bat for us. I know. So stand up to them. I fought many decades of my life fighting for clean rivers. When I float my kids down there or myself, I don't want to have to question if it is clean. Do you think labor rushed this policy? It is the same policy they've had since the last three elections. It has been presented as something new. No one is doubting. I'm sure even Michelle on a bad day will want to clean up the rivers. We do. Nick Smith has said we need $100 million over the next many many years just to do the cleanup. When David Parker mentioned 14 cows do more pollution than each human being, you've got to start making a contribution. People get that. What national is doing because there trying to make it about a tax question, they are asking who pays to clean that up. We let the people who are producing the pollution off? David Parker said let's say it's two cents per thousand liters. Why wasn't there detail? Exactly. Exactly. You've had your say. you've had your say. Let me give you some facts. I don't care if that's been the last policy for the last few years. They haven't done their homework. On the current rate, what he's talking about is to sense for these particular producers, but the wine industry would impose a cost of millions a year. Each Apple would cost two dollars. Craft we would cost another dollar 50. They haven't other numbers. Everything in New Zealand we grow takes a lot of water. It's silly. It is not silly. This is a tax on people labor doesn't like. I'm happy to focus on dairy farmers. I'm not sure about production, but every liter of milk, it will cost an extra four dollars. Look at how much water goes into production. Steven Joyce is it will cost about $50,000 a year. David Parker says about 2c. We are talking about 2.5 billion liters of irrigation. On their farms. They haven't done their homework. They haven't looked at how much water New Zealanders take. They're trying to say rain. After trying to say if rain hits the ground` they are talking about irrigation. They are being very picky. No other government has metered the waterways but us. The national government has put in place measures and standards so now we know What we are dealing with. Now we know what the issue is. This is just silly. You are trying to pretend to use the same figures. That means 1 million L of water for one cabbage. That is rubbish.Rubbish. You've got no idea` Apples is going to cost another two dollars? We are going to stop here. Raymond, we have heard so much about water quality New Zealand of late. It is a popular move. There have been many who are concerned about the purity of our waters and our waterways. There is also concern about the water bottling issue and exporting New Zealand water. David Parker was speaking to his constituency. And we heard the minister speaking to his constituency. It is going to be a difficult policy to implement. You have to achieve consistency. We have to think about different regions and different qualities of water. When you think about the needs of waters farmers and horticulturalist and gardeners. There was one little interesting piece Steven Joyce said which is that he will support water bottling being charge. That hasn't been a natural position in the past. Here is the flaw in the labor argument. Each regional Council can decide whatever they want to charge. Labour talking about taking all this tax and giving it back to the regional Council. YOUR FEEDBACK NOW. AND WATER IS A HOT ELECTION TOPIC, WITH MANY PEOPLE WRITING IN ON BOTH LABOUR AND NATIONAL'S IDEAS AROUND THIS. Time for our hits and misses of the week. My miss Of the week is the green party. We've heard so much about Metiria Turei. Then use of the two Mps leaving and then Metiria was very badly managed. I thought I was completely excessive considering he's been a long-standing member of the party. I just felt that here we had a situation which could've been managed better. Should she have allowed Kennedy Graham to stand? There was a strong argument to bring him back in. It seems to me as if he he's being punished. The hit of the week, I would have to say it's the display of Jacinda Ardern. You would think that Andrew little might have said to her six months ago prepare that you are going to be the leader in August 2017. That's how effective she has been. She's got a lot of problems that she will have to confront over the next few weeks, but I think let's give her credit for what she has done in the first week. My hit of the week is and that King. I was a bit annoyed the two other Mps left this week from national given their 30 years of service. Including Murray McCully. And they were ignored. She has been a fantastic MP, and that. I just have to agree with the Raymond in terms of the greens. They were like a possum caught in the headlights. I wouldn't be surprised if they go under 5%. That is more hope on your side (!) Obviously we are going to talk about the greens and Jacinda because that is quite obvious. I thought this morning that some of nationals panic on the water was on the front page ` you put it into perspective that there is an international company getting water every day and they pay nothing. That sums it up. I think the thing with James was he was caught in a difficult position. Whatever he did, the chips are down and you should button down. I think he came out fine. The thing is he's been making sure not to throw his coleader under the bus. I think he had to dig his Mps. He cut them off. The rest of the caucus has to be tight he got 12%. The greens polled 12%. I think they will recover and they will be fine. MARAE IS NEXT. REMEMBER Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.35PM. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. GREG'S BACK FROM HOLIDAY NEXT WEEK. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY MORNING AT 9. CAPTIONS BY INGRID LAUDER AND GLENNA CASALME CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017