MORENA, GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M GREG BOYED. IN LESS THAN A WEEK, WE'LL FINALLY KNOW HOW NEW ZEALAND HAS VOTED IN THIS HARD-FOUGHT AND VOLATILE ELECTION. BILL ENGLISH AND JACINDA ARDERN FACE THEIR FINAL Q+A INTERVIEWS TODAY WITH POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN. THEN THE TWO PARTIES THAT MAY HAVE A ROLE IN FORMING THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. GREEN PARTY LEADER JAMES SHAW IS HERE FOLLOWED BY NEW ZEALAND FIRST LEADER WINSTON PETERS. CAPTIONS BY FAITH HAMBLYN AND CATHERINE DE CHALAIN. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017. AND WE'LL HAVE ANALYSIS FROM OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR CLAIRE ROBINSON FROM MASSEY UNIVERSITY, ROBERT REID, FIRST UNION GENERAL-SECRETARY, AND NZME HEAD OF BUSINESS FRAN O'SULLIVAN. BUT FIRST, HERE'S CORIN. THANKS, GREG. AND GOOD MORNING TO NATIONAL PARTY LEADER BILL ENGLISH. Good morning. Can you guarantee homeowners watching this morning that their interest rates will not go up under national in three years? IT'S LESS LIKELY BECAUSE WE WILL BERUNNING FOR LESS DEBT, DROPPING DEBT. It would not be unreasonable to say you wouldn't run lower interest rates? We cannot errantly it, but we can do our bit to keep it lower. Why is it that you have a flyer going around in mailboxes saying lower debt, interest rates or higher debt and interest rates question make it's hypocritical to say that under labour you will have higher dress rates. We believe will be higher than they say. Enough to influence interest rates which mark no Marcus analyst thinks 20% of GDP is anything to worry about. Interest rates are low now. There is clarity that labour will be borrowing more. The Greens would be having them borrow more. Would that mean interest rates go up? You borrow tens of billions of dollars in government extra. You posted up from 9% to 25% of GDP when interest went rates fell. Reserve banks were pumping money into the system. That's not the situation. It is scaremongering to suggest to people that their interest rates are going to be higher when you can't rule out it will be higher under you. It makes clear the points we will have declining debt under national. By their own numbers, 11 billion more debt under labour. There is negotiation under New Zealand first or green. That will push debt higher. They are not going to spend more than you. As far as the reserve Bank is concerned, it won't forecast interest rates going higher. What government can do to keep your interest rates low because a lot of households have borrowed to get into houses, we will contain our spending and debt. All other parties are signalling significantly greater debt. It is part of a scare campaign. You have run on a negative campaign. Add this to the 11.7 William dollar hole that doesn't exist, you are scaring voters. I disagree. We are proud of our record. We are running on a plan for the next three years to take advantage of the strength of the New Zealand economy. The other parties have the obligation to answer the questions New Zealanders are asking. It doesn't look like you are running on your record. It is negative tax ads. Labour keep changing their mind. This is about cash in people's pockets. The decision to employ another person, what people can take home at the end of the week. Like a $11.7 billion hole? That is the best estimate. Are you comfortable personally as a leader of integrity to be running lines like $11.7 billion holes, which no economist will back. I have asked your office to tell me a name and they haven't come back. Do you feel comfortable with that sort of attack politics? Yes, because that is the estimate of this weird budget labour has put up. We have surpluses, and they will raise tax. They are trying to tell us there is big chunks of government over which there will be no new policy for the next three years. No one believes that. North at whole. Radio New Zealand suggests dairy farmers aren't paying virtually anything in tax. Are you scaring up the dairy industry? No, we're not. They have looked at the dairy farmers, there is also the horticulturalists, the numbers of the ones that the farmers produce. It shows how pointless that taxes. It is a tax that randomly selects one group with a punitive attitude. Labour have said if you disagree with us, we will doublet. Pollution going into the water and the extensive work and investment that is going on to manage that, you don't need the tax. It is a portal. We want to work with the community. Simon Upton, in his report, he made it clear there is a lack of ambition and that you are taking too long. Have we gotten to the point on the tax, because your government has done nothing for nine years. Nothing has happened. Farmers haven't had to change. You haven't forced them to. That is absolutely wrong. We have seen the distress among the farming community and the horticulturalists because there have been five or six years of intensive work. Labour and the Greens have used the water quality issue cynically. There is more to do because the next stage is to deal with the water quality in our cities. Can you say you have not sacrifice the environment to grow our economy? When you are living here, making a living as a high-value food producer, we are smart enough to be able to maintain our position as a high-value food position and left our environmental position. A lot of the night you can leakage, we haven't felt the full impact of this yet. Your government hasn't done enough. It has been too slow. I disagree. The science of nitrate flows into water has only been recently developed. Have we fenced our rivers? 90%. Legislation will be passed. That is as the result of a definition of a slope. New Zealand is in a great position our rural sector needs to be profitable to afford the investment to lift environment of standards. They are investing, and we can measure progress. It is too late. We hear from business leaders that your government hasn't got the vision, the energy to make that change on climate change. Our reputation could be at risk now. We have Al Jazeera doing documentaries about our water quality. A Labour Party is supposed to be the poster child for this. The picture doesn't look the way it was meant to look. Are you going to suggest that the water quality in Canterbury is okay? No. Are you not saying it is been decreed dated over 10 years because you mark and has been degraded over 30 years. I have a complex challenging issue. One answer is to slaughter the dairy herd. The next idea will be to depopulated cities. It is called diversifying your economy. It is moving into things that don't have that policing costs. Our exports are diversifying. We have an burgeoning IT industry. A lot of the solutions around nitrate emissions and climate change is IT solutions. We haven't heard much from you on that type of stuff. We talk about it all the time. The campaign has got focused on the mercy policy from labour on tax. And who has exposure that? The public want to know. This is an about us. Fair enough. It is politics. You must have thought what about a positive campaign? What about highlighting things we want to do? We have had an announcement every six weeks. Why are these suddenly coming into the campaign and haven't been done earlier? People need to see the plan. We have been a busy government in any six week period. And we have sped up for the campaign. We know what needs to be done for New Zealand. That's why we want to mandate the election. Why is it we have a number of hospitals in this country turning people away because they are overcrowded? There has been a long, tough winter. The winter peak, which is challenging , has lasted longer. There are still big days in our hospitals. We have the capacity to make the investment needed to handle demand. You have now, but the population has grown rapidly over five years. We have people being turned away. We have the biggest increase in health for 11 years. We have large-scale investment. That's great, but you have been too late. You need to recognise these population pressures. It is getting serious. That is a function of the winter peaks, but in respect of population, we didn't predict hundred and 50,000+ Kiwis in New Zealand staying home. We thought the usual pattern would apply. They have stayed home. We can invest for the kind of growth to give us a population of 5 million the infrastructure and jobs. This is a positive, confident country going somewhere. THANK YOU BILL ENGLISH, LEADER OF THE NATIONAL PARTY. COMING UP, THE WOMAN WHO WANTS YOUR JOB ` JACINDA ARDERN. WITH ONE MORE WEEK OF CAMPAIGNING TO GO, CAN LABOUR CONVINCE VOTERS THAT THEY SHOULD FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT? THAT'S NEXT. WELCOME, LABOUR LEADER JACINDA ARDERN. You spoke passionately about fixing the housing crisis. And tax in this country. What happened to that passion this week? I maintain those two points that we do have to address the housing crisis, particularly after nine years of drift. You are not willing to put your neck on the line. You rolled over. I am doing the work. I am committed to doing the work. If you look at the timeline, I will do that work and office. You panicked in the face of polling. If suggested by that working group, I will legislate. I have had to listen on the campaign trail. I put my case and the public put theirs. They said they feel urgency and want certainty. I can find the balance between those two. You made it a leadership issue. You put it out there and said I am going to make this my call. I will go to the electorate and say I will do this. I will be going to the electorate and saying this is the thing I have made the decision on. I have to show leadership and listen to what people tell me. The message came back that we get your passion. We need passion, because those who were hoping you would be a politician to deal with New Zealand's issues with taxing capital and fairness and you are not. I am doing the work. I will make the decision. I will legislate on that decision. I pushed up the time that it takes effect. I can balance the urgency with what the public gave me. In my mind, if it took a few months to find that balance, that was the right thing to do. What else have you flip-flopped on? I haven't. There is leadership and listening. When I came out on this, I was taking a risk. I was felt strongly enough to take that risk. It was a matter of months to listen to people. It wasn't electable? I don't believe that. What about the issue of superannuation? What is your take on raising the age of super? We have stuck with 65. That is a matter of certainty for people. My agitation with the national government which Bill English has described the raising of the age is that they do that without having contributed to the superfund. That includes the cost of borrowing. It is separate. That only partially pre-fund super. The country has an ageing population. Why have you made this decision? The time I spent on the campaign trail, one third of New Zealanders who are in hard labouring jobs to eyesore come to Andrew little in that period, they said thank you for making that decision. I remember a gentleman who told me about working under the walls in the water most of the year, and he said I couldn't do it. How will you pay for that person's health care in 20 years was a mark it's about priorities. We have made a decision that if you adjust your health spending based on population changes, inflation, if you plan and do not do tax cuts, you can prioritise health. Are you saying you will resign if you one a second or third term, no raising the age? If we plan and invest, we can give people certainty. This is what I don't understand. I present questions in absolute terms. Certainty in this area is what people crave. I believe in universalism. We have lost that in New Zealand. You had a chance to lead openly. John Key was worried people didn't trust him. You didn't have that same problem. It seems extraordinary to rule that out. The issue has bounced back and forth. People wanted certainty. I wanted to demonstrate that we plan for the next innovations future. They are the ones that have been sold on the river by not enough planning. They have been lumbered with the cost of not planning for retirement, environment, healthcare, education. Free trade what happens if South Korea says we will not renegotiate the free trade deal? If you asked me to give away my negotiating position, it will make it hard. Would you be prepared to walk away from a hardfought free trade deal over your policy, which is to ban foreigners buying houses in New Zealand. You are asking me to give away the terms of my negotiation. Given career negotiated that position for themselves, they will look kindly to us seeking the same. No one except that they will not want something in return. We will protect New Zealand's position. You'll give them something in return? I'm not going to negotiate a free trade agreement on Q and a. The government never tried. Australia negotiates successfully with career. These are hard deals to get. Why would you put that at risk? I will maintain we need to generate an agreement to preserve New Zealand's trade agreements and doesn't sell down the river our ability. Do you believe in free trade? I do. I would you risk that? You are implying we would risk that. Labour to go to South Korea and say what we want and not want anything in return is inscrutable. If they were locked, done and dusted, no one would enter into such agreements. It is not an even fight. We are the small player here. No one does us favours. Which is why it should have been negotiated in the first place. It should be a cause of concern for New Zealanders. It was never attempted in TPP. I am not going to trade off New Zealand's need to increase our exports and remove those barriers for trade. I am going to advocate for our ability to regulate our domestic housing market. We need to make that effort. Are we going to continue to have a close relationship with China? Labour has fought that close relationship. Would you go there every year? That relationship was extended by labour negotiating a free-trade agreement. Labour has a lot long held close relationship with China. I have travelled there several times. Should China be building military installations on reclaimed islands in the South China Sea? Hour free trade agreement was negotiated when we had concerns about labour and human rights issues. When I worked with Phil Goff, we raise concerns whilst maintaining. We have continued to raise concerns across human rights issues. That doesn't preclude our ability to advocate for New Zealand. Should they be building military installations? I would always raise that issue. That's what you do in a close relationship. What about the US? Would you go to the White House next year? Yes. I would keep a close relationship with the United States. Those are ongoing relationships that would not end under my leadership. I am not going to remove our ability to continue as an ally to raise issues of concern. What do you make of this campaign in terms of its tone? Is it fair for National to have criticised your numbers? We took the numbers, but to the question if it's fair, the attack on Bill English was incorrect. They have reported to the public that we are going to increase income tax. That is untrue. It has been frustrating to battle on false information. You made tax an area that was unclear and there was uncertainty. That was your captain's call. I raised the issue of tax as it related to speculators and the effect on our homeownership rates. We ruled out from the beginning any increase on income tax. Why shouldn't Bill English be able to highlight the fact that they would bring in tax cuts and you would get rid of them. If that National wants to raise the fact we would not bring in the tax cuts, and make sure 70% of families are better off, that is fair. Saying we would increase income tax is not true or fair. Why won't you raise income tax? It is not necessary. We have a plan to achieve our goals. We will reprioritise and not deliver tax cuts. We will crackdown on negative gearing in New Zealand. We will increase taxation on multinationals. THANKS, CORIN. SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER @NZQANDA. YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A@TVNZ.CO.NZ OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF ` EACH TEXT COSTS 50C. YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE PANEL VERY SOON, BUT FIRST, CORIN IS BACK AFTER THE BREAK WITH GREEN PARTY LEADER JAMES SHAW. THEY'VE HAD AN UNEXPECTEDLY VOLATILE CAMPAIGN. One of the things we want to push the monitor capital gains tax. You are saying that in a negotiation you would push labour to follow through on a capital gains tax. We have been saying that since 1999. Jacinda Ardern can't do that. She has just ruled it out. That's a subject for negotiations. This is what happens in a coalition agreement. So condition of your support is that they reopen a capital gains tax negotiation? Is not a condition of our support. It is something we want to put on the table and we think it is an important part of solving the housing crisis. We've also said we want to put a proper price on the pollution that causes climate change. Jacinda Ardern has just backflip on this issue and now you want to put it back on. Every party has different policies. In a coalition some people get what they want and not everything that they want. You would also push them further on water tax? We've got a different view when it comes to pricing water. What we have said is that while there is an argument for a resource rental on water, our preferred solution is to price the pollution directly. We want to put a charge on nitrate leaching. It's a tax on the pollution that leaches into the soil and the water. Can you give you is at home an indication of what sort of tax that would be? What would be the impact on a farm? The way we've modelled using dairy NZ's figures is that the average profit of the average dairy farm would see no more than 5 to 6% of that profitability margin. The way that we have organised the package, many farmers would be able to offset that through tree planting and so on. Deputy president of Federated farmers modelled it for his own farm and said that in his case he wouldn't end up paying anything more. You're saying that the average farmer has to expect a 5 to 6% decrease in profitability? Possibly. All of that money gets ploughed back into the farming community to aid in transition. Many farmers have a lot of debt right now and the price of dairy internationally is quite thin sso we don't want to tell people to carry on with that cost itself. What's to stop the farming community charging more for their produce? We already have quite high prices in New Zealand. If you take 5% of their profitability they will increase food prices. Competition drives productivity. When all of that money goes back into the farming community, it enables farmers to apply to that fund for things that will help to bring down the cost so that in time most of them won't pay anything at all. We want that tax to be eliminated over time because it's unnecessary. If farmers clean up the rivers and change their practices, they actually won't be paying any of that levy. Yyou want to be primary industries minister don't you? When I said that, the thing that I was saying was that these are the things that make the greatest difference. The things to do with air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, what are the agencies that make the biggest difference? In New Zealand, you look at transport, energy, housing,, primary industries, tourism ` these are the ones we have the greatest environmental impact. As primary industries top of your list? No. Like Jacinda, I'm not in the habit of giving a lame negotiating position on television. We are releasing our full costed manifesto tomorrow. It lays out all of our plans. We will carry that into the election. Do you think labour would let you be Primary Industries Minister? I don't know. I haven't asked for it. There are a number of areas we are if you really want to make a difference to the environmental impact that we can have, you look at the industries with the rubber hits the road. Primary Industries is one of those, as is tourism, construction, etc. Could we say that those are the sort of portfolios that you and other green Mps would want going into a labour lead government? Our number one priority is making New Zealand a world leader in the fight against climate change. The number two is to clean up our rivers and the number three is to end poverty. WELCOME GREEN PARTY LEADER JAMES SHAW. THANKS, JAMES SHAW. WELCOME, NEW ZEALAND FIRST LEADER WINSTON PETERS. Good morning. Let's start with the issue of the capital gains tax. I'm a bit surprised that the greens have said they would try to put that on the table. What were New Zealand first do on the issue of capital gains tax? Is it on or off the table? It's clear that it's off the table for us. The two factors are that it doesn't work and there is no fairness that if you haven't got capital losses consideration as well. In 2011 and 2014, it's a long range return so you don't get the value until five or seven years out. Is it fair that someone doing 40 hours a week pays their income tax, yet someone who is flipping two or three properties in making hundreds of thousands of dollars isn't? His flipping properties because we have massive house prices in this country. We have massive house prices because of immigration. If it's an issue of fairness in our tax system, you're saying you won't address that. We will address the main drivers that everyone seeks to avoid. Now they're all dog whistling but we'll do it. Are you accusing labour of dog whistling on immigration? Well, Mr little started it. The Labour Party has become weak kneed on it, but they are still doing it. You've never done a dog whistle in your time? You don't need to. I haven't heard you talking about immigration that much this campaign. Why not? I have. You just haven't been there. Look at the commentators saying immigration won't be an issue. It has been a huge issue around New Zealand. We want to cut it back to around 10,000 expert people that we actually need and some regional jobs. What we are going to do is train our own people first. Your poll numbers are haemorrhaging because National has targeted you in the regions. Are you talking about immigration because the regions need immigration? I'm going with my instincts and read in the mood of the people out there. I've travelled this country extensively. The regions need migration. They are crying out for it. This country has brought them all to Auckland. We've got more and more of them coming every year. You spread the cost of crisis in Auckland around the rest of the regions. You want to/from 70,000 to 12,000. There will be massive skills shortages. There already are skills shortages. We brought in 10,000 chefs and we don't have that many restaurants. There are a large number of unskilled people coming here. How do they get here? We haven't run a focused immigration policy. What is your position on the Maori party at the moment? Could you be in a government where they were offering supine confidence? The Maori party has disintegrated itself. It might be an issue. I have a wide engagement with Maori. I have to tell you, I don't deal in hypotheticals. The reality is the Maori party started with so much promise. In the last nine years they've signed up with the national party. They may get some seats and may be crucial. Viewers need to know if you work with them. When I see Maori homeownership declined by 38% in the last 20 or 25 years, that is a tragedy and I cannot understand how we let it happen and how Maori politicians were so with their eyes off the prize to let that happen. But what I want to know is if you work with them. You work with who the people tell you to work with. That is the lot of a politician. You have to look at what the public is served up on 24 September. You have to put aside your personal interests and look at the national interests. Half want me to go one way, half want us to go the other way. In the end it's a better choice but you have to make it. You want to have a referendum on the Maori seats. Does that prohibit you from working with them? Like the Commissioner that set up MMP said, in time they would do away with the need for the Maori seats. 24% of Parliament have a Maori background. 55% of New Zealanders don't want to get rid of Maori seats. If we put a referendum alongside other referenda, it won't cost like the flag referendum. I am talking about wrapping it up with other referenda to minimise the cost. You don't think it would be highly divisive for this nation? Stir up race relations in a bad way? There are laws right now based on racism and separatism. They are the pathway to apartheid and will take Maori nowhere. I have to make a stand for that. I believe in one law for all. It is the only pathway for equality in this country and collective. Progress THANKS, CORIN. OUR PANEL HAS BEEN WAITING PATIENTLY. WE'LL HEAR FROM THEM AND TAKE SOME OF YOUR FEEDBACK AFTER THE BREAK. WELCOME BACK. LET'S BRING IN OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR CLAIRE ROBINSON, ROBERT REID, FIRST UNION GENERAL-SECRETARY AND NZME HEAD OF BUSINESS, FRAN O'SULLIVAN. clear I want to start with you. James Shaw ` did he just take a missile to what Jacinda Ardern said about a capital gains tax? I think he might have, because labour has been working hard this week to take pressure off nationals attacked messages on its tax. Now Jane Shaw has put capital gains tax back on the table and saying it's one of the importance things he's going to be negotiating with after the election. If I was Stephen choice right now I'd be making a new series of attack ads asking whether you can trust a labour greens coalition government, because one party is not necessarily reflecting the interests of the other party and I think that that is probably not so good for the greens this week. Fran, what was your take on that? Labour has been trying to distance themselves from that for two weeks. Listening to Jacinda I very much thought that there would be a capital gains tax. They will pass legislation and it will take effect in April 2021. Assuming they can get the balance in the house. Listening to Winston Peters, I started to wonder if it would be NZ first and labour. I couldn't see capital gains tax is coming and because Winston wouldn't have a bar of it. What James Shaw said, with that of confirmed people's fears that a labour greens government is too far left? I don't think so. What is done is put capital gains on the agenda, but labour hasn't taken off the agenda anyway. For him to say that is really just saying that the Green party will make sure in the tax working group that capital gains is one of the priority areas. What is actually done is trying to harvest votes which you must believe are out there are for people who really believe, and lots of New Zealanders do, that we need a capital gains tax. Let's go back to what Bill English had to say. As Corin said, it is largely ban about attack. Has that worked for them? I think it has worked in the last week, would you can see why labour having to come out much more clearly about its position on tax. The interview was very interesting because it exposed nationals weaknesses around nine years in office and not investing enough in health and water. I think Corin was very good this morning. Jacinda Dern, as we all know, there has been some change on the things that she is said. What message does that send? I think this is a leader who is willing to listen. Which ever way Jacinda or anyone else goes, if they change or Nuance a position, they are damned either way. I actually seen a problem with her clarifying a position. I see it as a rookie mistake. It's an electorate saying we don't like captains calls. I think she made the wrong captains call. She should have sounded out the colleagues more and just not said what she said on capital gains tax without taking a clear policy to the election. She taken a clear policy and sold the policy. There is a constituency out there are which says the principal position is to extend the tax base. Capital gains as part of that. What about the point that Winston Peters raised? If you have a capital gains tax, you have to have a capital loss tax as well. There are a suite of issues that could be looked at. A tax working group in 2010 suggested a land tax. I think the whole area does need to be looked at. You have had people in the past like Sam Morgan who sold his trade measures to Fairfax saying that he should be taxed. One of the interesting things about tax as the voters often feature tax very low when asked what matters to them in an election, and it's interesting to wonder about why that has become so important. It's not really about tax. It's about the issues around tax. It's about credibility and testing the leadership of the party. She tried to sell transparency without the detail. If she had had the policy in the detail, it could have been a wedge issue against national. The superannuation age. This is something that many hard-core labour fans to feel shortchanged by. I think what happened in the last election when labour stood on the fact of raising the superannuation age, the feedback from the member's and the public was so bad. That was Andrew little saying that that was one of the issues which he believed caused a loss in the election. Working people, their bodies to break down at that time. Lots of people are concerned about that. The interesting thing is all of this rubbish that there is no money to pay for it as more and more burning discredited. As we are moving towards a technological society where wealth is created by machinery just as much as by people, we should see superannuation as the first step for a universal basic income. It's good to keep it at that level and maybe eventually being able to bring it down. We now have the ability in modern societies and the money to be able to afford those programs. I think the case was made about this being generational. Subsequent generations want to have what other generations have got now. The Bolger government over a 10 year period put superannuation up from 60 to 65. My generation will have to be 65 to get super, not 60. I see no difference between a guy from 65 to 67 given the people of so much longer. It is very hard for any tax brace, short of bringing lots of immigration, to support that. LET'S TAKE SOME OF YOUR FEEDBACK NOW. MARIA SHERWOOD TWEETED,... JOHN EMAILED... JAMES SHAW MAY HAVE PUT CAPITAL GAINS ON THE TABLE. GIA GOT IN TOUCH AND NOTED... Job done then, I guess. What did you make on what she has to say in negotiations with South Korea? She doesn't have a clue. She will have to renegotiate other FTA's. They cannot stop at this stage of the game. It's a very tricky one. There is another avenue, which is a bit rough, but you could put in a stamp duty on 500% on offshore acquisitions or that sort of thing. I know Fran likes to think of yourself as an expert on trade, but the real problem we have is that New Zealand trade negotiators are putting up the most extreme neoliberal positions, whether it's career, TPP, anything else. Under the national government they have allowed us to actually start giving away stuff that we are wanting to see. I don't regard myself as an extreme neoliberal, and I don't regard the the negotiators is that either. Winston Peters pretty much decided in his mind that the Maori party is not a force to be reckoned with. Is that necessarily right? No, I don't think so. I think they are on track to winning three seats. The Maori party and Horne will probably be holding the balance of power after Saturday. A lot will depend on how many people vote for New Zealand first. If they only get 6%, New Zealand first will be in a much weaker position and the strength will lie with the Maori party. To write them off is wrong in his comments reflected more of a concern that they were going to be in a good position. This is the part of the show you all knew was coming. Who's going to win and what's the next government going to look like? I'm not going to make that call. Out you go! I think it's too volatile and it's a big contest. So many New Zealanders are wrestling with which way to go. WHAT WOULD BUSINESS LIKE TO SEE? BUSINESS IS STILL WRESTLING WITH OUR OWN. Business wants change. Everyone is now focused on what hasn't been done under national. It is that catch up that has to be attacked by either party. Workers and unions would like to see labour and the greens have enough votes to be the government. That was a forlorn dream six weeks ago. It is now eminently possible. With a bit of reproach moment of its leader with the Maori party and the additional seats there are, I think that will be the result. I think New Zealand first could end up being out in the cold. I think it will be close obviously. I think national will probably lead labour by 1 to 2 points. I think New Zealand first will get six or seven. Six is probably the danger territory for them. I'm really worried that the greens won't make it five. Actual get one, Maori three and mana one. In that scenario, I can see that that'll probably be a National, New Zealand first or national, act, Maori party and mana party will be an interesting one to look at. MARAE IS NEXT. REMEMBER Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.35 PM. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. NEXT SUNDAY MORNING WE HAVE A TWO-HOUR POST ELECTION SPECIAL WITH ALL THE RESULTS AND ANALYSIS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE. WE'RE STARTING OFF BRIGHT AND EARLY AT 8AM. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY MORNING AT 8. CAPTIONS BY CATHERINE DE CHALAIN AND FAITH HAMBLYN. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017