MORENA, GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M GREG BOYED. TODAY ` BUT WE DO HAVE THE MAIN CARDS. WE ARE NOT GOING TO SQUANDER THAT OPPORTUNITY. WE'RE IN FAMILIAR TERRITORY THIS MORNING ` WINSTON PETERS WILL CHOOSE NEW ZEALAND'S NEXT GOVERNMENT. BUT LAST NIGHT'S RESULT WAS ALSO REDEMPTION FOR NATIONAL LEADER BILL ENGLISH. THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN, AND NOW WE HAVE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF WORKING TO GIVE NEW ZEALAND A STRONG AND STABLE GOVERNMENT. (APPLAUSE) WHILE LABOUR'S RAPID RISE IN THE POLLS WAS NOT ENOUGH ON THE NIGHT. I'VE COME OFF THE FIELD KNOWING WE GAVE IT OUR ALL. (APPLAUSE) WE'LL BE SPEAKING TO ALL THE MAJOR PLAYERS THIS MORNING IN OUR TWO-HOUR POST-ELECTION SPECIAL. WE'LL HAVE INTERVIEWS AND ANALYSIS FROM CORIN DANN AND JESSICA MUTCH. CAPTIONS BY VIRGINIA PHILP AND ANTONY VLUG. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017 AND WE'LL HAVE MORE INSIGHT FROM OUR EXPERT POLITICAL PANEL. YOU'LL SEE A RANGE OF GUESTS AND OPINIONS THIS MORNING, BUT IN THE CHAIRS RIGHT NOW POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER FROM AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY; MICHELLE BOAG, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT AND PR PRACTITIONER; AND JOHN TAMIHERE, FORMER LABOUR MP, NOW CEO OF THE WAIPAREIRA TRUST. FIRST LET'S GO TO CORIN FOR A RECAP OF WHERE WE ARE AT. THANKS, GREG. We are entering into the interesting MMP where we do not have a clear winner. AND, YES, HERE WE ARE AGAIN ` NZ FIRST LEADER WINSTON PETERS HOLDING THE BALANCE OF POWER. LET'S LOOK AT HOW THE POTENTIAL COALITIONS ARE SHAPING UP. The majority is quite a bit smaller for the three opposition parties. Not a lot of wriggle room. One more scenario ` Personally, I don't think it is very likely. Maybe the Greens could add stain or look to a crossbench arrangement. It is not impossible but a bit unlikely. JOINING ME NOW IS NATIONAL PARTY CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR, STEVEN JOYCE. This is a very good result for us. You sound like you have been having a victory party. I went home earlier than most. It has been a long campaign and I have had a cold the last three days. You were targeting 47. We did not quite get there but I did not believe the last two public polls. Our internal polling said we were more like 44, 45. Do you believe that 46 gives you some kind of mythical moral mandate to form the government? That you have some sort of greater right? Nearly one in two New Zealanders chose the direction that we are heading to. It gives us a strong position to have those conversations. How would your supporters feel if the left could create a government? Anything is possible with MMP. We will look to work well with NZ First. A number of People have relationships with Winston and his team. Walk me through the process here. Have you made the phone call to set up the phone call? My understanding is that the two teams will be talking today And I'm sure the prime minister will talk to Winston Peters at some point. Do you have any idea what he wants? Not a huge amount, no. I am sure we will discuss that later on. The same people were here the last time we were involved in this process. Such as Gerry Brownlee. 46% of New Zealanders have voted for the direction that we are heading and And obviously Winston Peters people have voted for something a bit different And it is about getting that balance right so it is durable. Do you reiterate the fact that he has some expectation that he will support you? I will not be the person having those conversations. That will be Bill Hopefully is having a sleep at the moment will be fresh as a daisy when he makes the call. He has run a great campaign and has got stronger and stronger. Do you want to lay down any bottom lines? You on the show a month ago and you said to me the monetary policy was off the table. I think we were pretty strong on monetary policy. There are some certain things that are important from the confidence and of market and the policies. Let's have those discussions. We do not want to spook anybody. What about immigration he wants to cut it back to 10,000/ Can you agree to that? I am not in a position to conduct these discussions. The campaign ` Do you think you have mending of bridges to do? People on the left might think you have run a dirty campaign. I don't agree with that. We ran a campaign on policy. Did you take it a little bit further than you have seen before? 11.7b dollar claim. There were many who felt that was going to far, Along with the income tax claim. No regrets? No regrets at all. I have run five campaigns and it is no more or no less. And you do not feel that Bill English has lost any authority because of the campaign? We ran a robust discussion about things that matter to kiwis. I think it was refreshing for the New Zealand public and it is important for them. It is about what they get in their pockets And their concern about the balancing of the books. These are exactly the discussions you want to see. I called it an own goal from you. I apologise. I would not overplay any individual thing. About two weeks ago and to be fair to labour and everybody else, it was a concertina period And they changed to lead a quite late And the public sort of said We got all that and what is the selection about from my perspective? And then they had two weeks to assess that. Through that. They decided if they are talking about me and my family, I have too much doubt and I am going to stay with the status quo. What are the areas you are going to have to change? Will you be more a centre-left government? Every government changes after an election campaign and there are things that you learn out of it. We will say there are things that we need to do more quickly. You listen to the public can you see that they are not that convinced on some items And we feel that the way we have operated as we like to get things done and solve issues. Poverty? Housing? Some issues take a long time to solve and you have to show progress. You will be mad not to listen to the public. Bill English ran a remarkable campaign in the last two or so weeks. Were you surprised? He was able to bring that side of him out. He probably campaigned better than he expected he would. We all know him to be a better campaigner than a lot of other people do because we see him around the cabinet table and all those sorts of things And we had a chance to show the public a lot of things that they have not seen previously. He fared off it better than he thought. John was great but Bill was determined and unflappable over the course of the five weeks. Great energy. And for you as a campaign Dir, you must be pretty thrilled to get 46 but did you have a little secret smile when you saw Northland go back to national? I was really thrilled for Matt because he worked so hard. I did not think he would get there this time round. But people who work really really hard sometimes it the luck to go their way And he was a guy who had a big electorate any went all over it non-stop And got a really good reputation as someone who was prepared to turn up and listen and take it all And I think he will be a great MP. Is there any chance that you would put the call into the Greens to test them out? That is above my pay grade but I noticed that James Shaw was not looking for the call last night. They have been pretty clear all along that they would not to want to work with national and that way. How quickly do you think this can be done? Do you think it is going to take a full two or three weeks? It is too hard to say but it will take a bit of time because we know that Winston Peters likes to take his time. You want something that is going to be durable so if you rush these things, you could end up mucking it up. What are the good bits about NZ First that you like? Their passion for regional New Zealand. I think that is hugely important for our future. And people like Tracy Martin and their focus on skills. And Winston and I despite the fact... he has called me big ears over the years. You mention the markets. Will there be some uncertainty? They are not huge fans of Winston Peters, given their policies/ I would say just have a bit of confidence. We will look to put together a successful coalition or confidence and supply And I think people would recognise that because we have around the 46% mark as Finance Minister, he might be getting the cheque-book out. We have quite a few ministers in our own outfit that have big spending ideas. GST? Just putting it out there. Have you got a student loan, Corin? No I have pay that off. GOOD MORNING TO LABOUR'S CAMPAIGN CHAIR PHIL TWYFORD. Are you feeling a bit flat this morning? The result last night showed that labour is back in the game. 54 days ago you could scarcely imagine the kind of campaign that Jacinda Ardern ran And a very creditable result last night. Last night's numbers are a little short of what we wanted to have seen but it puts us firmly in the game And there are now two negotiating scenarios as we move into this next phase. You must be disappointed that you not in a better position. Who would not want to be in a better position but Jacinda galvanised the central left. Quarter of a million New Zealanders switched to labour. Perhaps we have the opportunity to form a government. That is a huge achievement and for anyone who was at the Aotea Centre Would have known there was a fantastic positive energy in the room. National got the bigger number and they are in the position to form a government first. Do you agree with that? No, not at all. During the campaign in one of the debates Bill English said about the incumbent government But there is no rule and I do not think it is a formal convention And it is very clear under MMP it is simply the leader who can command the majority and other people have spoken And now we are going to start working out who can put together a progressive and stable government. The people have spoken and they have given the biggest proportion to national. Shouldn't they get the first right of reply? The fundamental democratic principle of MMP is who can put together a majority and I think we are well and truly in the game to do that. National have lost their governing majority and more New Zealanders voted for change. If you include NZ First and labour and the Greens. NZ First campaigned on have you had enough? That sounds like they are campaigning for change. What sort of government do we want? Do we want drift or action or do we want the past or the future? How do you go about that now? That process is going to begin now and Jacinda is leading that. She has a tight circle of people around her supporting her and advising. I am really not in a position to share anything. Did the first call go to the Greens? Jacinda has made it very clear that would happen so I have no doubt about that but I am not aware whether that conversation has take place. What about two NZ First. How are you going to approach that? How are you going to get around that? I think that we have a good relationship with Winston and with the rest of the NZ First caucus. Do you think you have a better relationship than with national? Yes, I do. There is more policy alignment between NZ First and labour. NZ First are committed to a much more hands-on approach to economic management. They are not afraid to use the levers of the state to make markets work better for people. There is very little space between. us I think there is a philosophical and policy alignment that I don't see on the other side. We have some strong relationships in our caucus. David Parker is very close to Winston. Is that on purpose? Because of preparing for moments like this? It is much more organic than that. National set out to deliberately humiliate Winston Peters and Northland. They threw everything at trying to tip him out of the seat. Have you seen any hints with Winston Peters that would suggest that he would prefer to go with labour? We have polled a number of times. Have you had any observations that he would look to go to labour? I think that Winston, personally my assessment is that he enjoys a good relationship out of the house. I presume you will be asking him those same questions today and he plays his cards are very close to his chest. We have worked with him for a long time. I am confident that labour is in a position to form a government with the Greens and NZ First. Here is the thing. You only have the barest of majorities and that is a problem. You are relying on not one NZ First MP gets grumpy and walks and it is all over. One thing is that 384,000 special votes. It would not surprise me if there is an extra seat from that. 63 could look more solid. Perhaps special votes could take a seat off national and delivers it to labour's side. We do know that MMP produces these tight results and when you look at the way governments have been configured, There are all sorts of scenarios there. For me to take away from last night is that Jacinda absolutely transforms labour and she electrified the election And she has demonstrated a new positive optimistic style of politician. Do you think the public is comfortable with the three-headed monster of with greens and NZ First. Can you hold it together with all three? In the morning after, our job is to listen to what the people have said and really do our best to put together a government that can provide progressive and stable government for New Zealand. And I am at salute the confident that we can do that. What is your message to the markets this morning who might be worried about Winston Peters? Stephen Joyce basically ruled out what he wants. I doubt very much whether there would be a significant concern in the markets. We are one of the best Chrissy's in the world and we have had stable and high quality government for a long time now In an MMP environment. I would be very surprised if there was any concern in the markets. I think with the election we had argy-bargy But it was a pretty amazing election and I think the public loved it. We had some real debates about the future of the country. How significant was that capital gains issue? There will be plenty of time for post-mortem. Now was not the time to do that. That was not a good move in hindsight. We set out a relentlessly positive campaign and we talked about the problems and set up the solutions and said how we were going to pay for them. I think that kind of campaign enhance the integrity of Jacinda Ardern. That is a good thing for labour. Supplying confidence with the Greens. Is it possible that you put them to the side. The only way is that you get a deal with labour and NZ First coalition. That is a realistic possibility. It is hypothetical and I don't want to go there. The coalition negotiations are above me. You cannot rule it out? You cannot rule out any scenario and it is all going to be on the table. We go on to it confident that we are going to have the relationships with NZ First and the Greens. A lot of policy and alignment. A lot of fun and games to come over the next few days and hours. SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER @NZQANDA. YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A AT TVNZ.CO.NZ OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF. EACH TEXT COSTS 50 CENTS. LET'S BRING IN OUR PANEL ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR RAYMOND MILLER. MICHELLE BOAG, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT AND PR PRACTITIONER. AND JOHN TAMIHERE, FORMER LABOUR MP, NOW CEO OF THE WAIPAREIRA TRUST. Raymond, are very buoyant Steven Joyce and Phil Twyford saying back in the game, which one is wrong? It is too early to say. The obvious thing is that National is in a strong position, But labour and the Greens and New Zealand first Are still they are. And if what happens happened in 1986 happens again, Then Winston Peters will enter into negotiations. It is a good ago strategy. It is possible that he forms a minority government. And that James Shaw will get ministerial positions outside cabinet. We are familiar with minority government. We have seen it for the last two years. Ad is likely. The problem for such an arrangement is the public feels that there is a mandate for national To form the next government, and it might be difficult to persuade the public. But this would happen sooner or later under MMP That the party with a few votes forms the government. Do you agree with that? Will it be Winston and national? I think there is a lot of obfuscation about the numbers. When you look at the comparison between the last government in this government, The three opposition parties only increased their seats by four. James Shaw says there is a mood for change. He is the most deluded person on election night. He lost half as Mps. It's as close to government as he thought he could get to government. The tragedy of the selection is that the Maori Party is gone. They will spend three years in opposition unable to do anything. Going back to the Greens outcome, it wasn't great but better than they thought. Quite possibly, but nevertheless I think James Shaw did not look credible when he talked about a mood for change many locks 50% of his caucus How do you think this will work out? I see a totally different to Michelle. I think sure I had an amazing campaign in light of Metiria Turei He rescued the brand, and I think he is one of the better campaigners You have to give him credit for that. Winston will determine the Prime Minister. We can't second-guess where the negotiations will go. In the landscape that we have got after last night, Justin and I didn't just save the furniture, she shored up the foundations And builders are on the way. How far you gonna go with the analogy? We have got significant investments from the top party down the gurgler There are parties gone. The landscape has changed. We are getting truncated framework In terms of the politics. Significant shift has occurred. You have to give Bill English credit at 46. It is an outstanding result for fourth term. I think it is important that a couple of weeks ago there was the Jacinda effect And it looked like they were going to do it. Was just down to the $11.7 billion accusation? I think it was about tax and various forms. In the past 81 years of competition between labour and national, The issue of taxes come up every election. I think labour was blown away by the ferocity of the attack on tax. I think this was a really crucial issue, When she had to back down on capital gains, didn't look the best In terms of lack of experience and maturity. We could also complement Bill English on what I think was a very good campaign. It was a remarkable results are national. To get to 47% going into fourth term, As a remarkable achievement. And every election we think it is going to drop and that hasn't. If Jacinda was able to get labour up to the 40s, it would look more competitive. But it will be very difficult. From where they werewith Andrew little, it is a turnaround. Absolutely, and you have to acknowledge that. But there was a media that was very rose tinted when it came to Jacinda She got a lot of help and the coverage was huge. It was all about how wonderful it was. A lot like John Key got. Possibly, but you can't do anything else than admire the way That Bill English got up again. He campaigned differently and I think something we should talk about Slater Is what this means for the new government he leads. I think we saw a different side of Bill English. Last night and as comments he talked about the most vulnerable, He talked about the environment. Their traditional party approach is when you talk about those issues you are losing. I think the landscape has changed. Bill English has the capacity to address those issues And away we haven't seen before. Since he was given the job last year by John Key, He felt like he was in a caretaker role. How different of a government do you think you will lead? The jury is out. The numbers we get to whether the GDP or wage rates going north, Our averaged. There are people down $35 an hour treading water. There is a tale of two cities. The working poor is increasing. You have logjams that are occurring And you can't arrest yourself or jail your way out of difficulties and deprived communities. You have to unleash talent and potential. The social investment program at is much touted Has to bite hard. Since E has gone to every part of the country, do think he opened his eyes? Let's be under no illusion that he gets it. It's whether the ministries handled by his ministers get it And whether there is the performance capacity in the public service to handle it. And there is some major challenges for this government if it does get there. If he does get a deal with Winston and gets across the line, It is the fourth term. And it is a strong group and opposition if they are in opposition I think it will be a testy Parliament no matter who is Prime Minister. I want to hear about your bottom lines. As the Maori Party going to be one? Yes. I think being deputy prime minister would be an expectation he has, And he might get regional development as well. He will be a major player. I think he has a good idea of what he wants out of this. And three things that are smaller party has to deal with. First as policies and he will have a policy agenda. Next is portfolio. And the third is votes. He doesn't want to ruin his chances as happened in 1996 Of holding on to his electoral support come the next election. Michelle, losing a seat, In the big picture it doesn't matter, But does it matter to Winston? I don't think it will matter and coalition negotiations. It's all about what happens next. It was a by-election result and they are always one-offs. Winston has lost seats before and has come back. I don't think it will be a major for him. It is up to what the picture has looked like for the last 12 months. He is a kingmaker and is in a powerful position. Phil Twyford has said that National through the kitchen sink and beat him Is that how Winston will say at? He will raise above that. And the heat of the battle you do and say things. And then after that MMM P allows you to kiss and make up. It happened with Clark and Anderton. Three years later in 1909 they are in the same bed . Winston is a professional and will rise above it. He has ability to get ministers in.// THAT IS ALIVE SHOT OF RUSSELL. WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD two having Winston Peters here this morning. THIS HAS BEEN THE FIGHT OF OUR LIVES, AND WE ARE STILL HERE. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) WE ARE STILL STANDING. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) STILL STANDING AND WITH US THIS MORNING IN THE STUDIO, GREEN PARTY LEADER JAMES SHAW, WHOSE PARTY ENDED UP WITH SEVEN SEATS IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT. Are you confident of getting one more seat from the special votes? Yes I am. Have you had a look to see whether you are close to that threshold? I have not had the time but given the size of the special vote I think it will come through. You heard Michelle say that you were desperate and out of touch. Michelle is a former National party president and she is spinning their lines. You were quite optimistic. I don't think I overcooked it. The fact that the three opposition parties together have 61 seats and that will probably rise to 62 seats after the specials and all of us campaigned for a platform of change. You said it was not likely. That is a bit different from last night. It is possible and we can form a government. The factors that the three opposition parties all of whom campaigned on a platform of change commander majority together if Winston decides he wants to go with change. Are you going to say that you are not going to talk to national. If Bill calls us, we are duty-bound to speak with him but I said we have wanted to change the government. Crossbenches? Or you have an abstention agreement? Why would I do that? The thing is we have campaigned on a platform of change in the circumstances by which we would sometimes fourth term national government. But you would have some leverage over labour. I said 18 months ago that we were committed to changing the government and some people said that we had given away are leveraged but I think it is really important that we let voters know before the election what they are voting for. We said we are voting for change. But it puts NZ First in the position where they can go to labour and say they will do a deal but only if the greens are not involved. That is not going to be a stable coalition because that is a minority government. We have had minority governments for many years. That is quite a long way short. The only way we can support a minority government that does not include us. So you are ruling out the option of a pure supply and demand agreement. The only thing that I have said is that I have campaigned for a change of government. Literally nothing is off the table. It is going to take a few weeks to work through the implications of this. Winston has a big decision to make. I guess the point I was making last night if you took all the votes for opposition parties, that is currently a majority of Parliament. We know there are no rules here when it comes to forming of governments and we have had crazy arrangements, and do you think there is scope for those types of arrangements for NZ First and labour and the greens and that perhaps you can somehow technically be in government but be a minister? There is always scope but I think that we have kind of matured over the 20 years that we have had MMP and we are starting to evolve towards more traditional forms of government. People are saying that they kind of look a bit weird and why don't we act normal? Taking a mature approach, is it your main aim to change government policy? Isn't that the whole point of your existence and wouldn't you be better to try and do that from within as part of a national government and perhaps even be a minister, isn't that even the point? It is not about the job description for me but it is about the policy wins we can get. Can't you do that better from within? The reason why we want to change of government is because when we look at the Where national and labour is that we have far more policy alignment with labour than we do with national. Fundamentally the things that we consider to be critically important ` climate change in cleaning up rivers and ending poverty in this country ` fundamentally the way that National has run the economy runs contrary to those outcomes. On climate change national are the only party that have not committed to the net zero emissions by 2050 target. Everyone else in Parliament has, including NZ First. Seeing the fate of the Maori Party the selection, that has got to make you nervous. Of course. We voted together 89% of the time. I am really sorry to see them go and they think that is a cautionary tale about supporting parties from the other side of the house. Your support base does say hang on a second, what are you doing here? What are the things you are not prepared to give up? As I said before, we do not say what are bottom lines are and through the media, but we saw the things that we were campaigning on really strongly about climate change and clean out rivers and ending poverty and all of the outcomes have been costed and independently audited. What is the Green party now? You have seven Mps/ you are a different beast than you were. You do not have a co-leader. More debate about more social justice than environment. We are the same Green party that we have always been. We have been through multiple changes in our time. We have had increases in numbers of Mps and trunk and this is one of those occasions. We are going to expand again in 2020. We have the same values that we have always had. Different people but same party. Did you have to contemplate the fact a few days out from the election that your party might be gone? A few days out, I was confident but a few weeks back it was looking pretty grim. It sounded almost like it was pleading with people to stick with us and not go to labour. That was summoned that we really detected in the last two weeks of the campaign was a real misunderstanding about how MMP works. We had lots of people who were really call Green voters who said they really wanted to vote Green again but if I don't vote for labour, they won't get over the line. That is a misunderstanding that every vote for the greens is a vote for a labour lead government There was a lack of understanding around that we had to do a lot of work to educate people about how the mathematics work. Thank you very much, James Shaw. We will hear more from you in the coming days. Have you got the phone call yet from Jacinda Ardern? No, we are seeking to day. We have not scheduled it. Are you doing the phone call to have a phone call? It was a text message. A bit later on, Russell, Winston Peters. WELCOME BACK. THE ACT PARTY MAY BE OUT OF GOVERNMENT THIS TERM NOW THAT WINSTON PETERS WILL BE PICKING THE WINNER. LEADER DAVID SEYMOUR WON HIS ELECTORATE SEAT OF EPSOM BY MORE THAN 4700 VOTES. GOOD MORNING TO ACT LEADER, DAVID SEYMOUR. How are you feeling with those numbers? Bittersweet to be elected by my neighbours and representing Epsom Is a good thing. But it was a very poor party vote for ACT. We had candidates that would have made fantastic members of Parliament. But sometimes when the tide goes out it does not matter how good a swimmer you are and that is what United Future and Maori Party discovered last night. You have been thrown a lifeline by the National Party. Is that fair that you are at the Grace of them? I do not think it is fair for the Epsom voters for you to put it that way. But you are there because of the cup of the tea and the deal. I am there because of the Epsom voters and they want to go to local MP. I am looking forward to working hard for the electorate. The way democracy works is that electorates belong to people. Why do you think the act party did not do well in the party vote? Every minor party got hammered. We went back to to a first past the post environment. James Shaw said we had the difficulty about wanting to vote Green but then wanting to vote labour in order to help the left one. We had people who like act but I am worried that the right will lose if we vote for act. This is the first time that I have been on this show in five weeks when we have just had an election. You came on the environment debate. I was one of seven. One debate on one topic and people might ask why we pay taxes to NZ on air when even shows like this choose to run an FPP campaign. In defence, you are a minor party. There you go, that is the choices that you guys make and that is why we had a FPP election. Can you work with Winston Peters? Ultimately we can work with anyone but at this point act has kept NZ First out of government three times and they are probably going to want to do the same thing to us. I am a member of Parliament and Act is still in Parliament. My end of life choice bill is still in. The partnership schools will be a legacy of this term of the act party. Are you concerned about that? Woe and betide any government that wants to shut or ameliorate partnership schools. See you and Winston Peters go toe to toe and it seems a very fractious relationship. I do not have a great deal of respect for the guy but you work with people to work for New Zealand. But if you don't have respect for him isn't it difficult to work together? We do difficult things all the time. The reality is there is no possible combination where we need to work together and I thought that would happen right from the start. It is unfortunate that the combination excludes us from government rather than excluding him but Epsom has voted act and provided centre right stable government. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose and last night we lost but the good news is that we are back. Have you talked to the National Party today? No, but we are still going to be friends and in Parliament with them together. It is a shame that the way the cookie has crumbled is that there will not be the numbers to do the coalition with act. What does it mean for the future of the act party? What has happened is that what we have done has not worked in the last three years in terms of raising our party boat. I thought we ran a good campaign in spite of the lack of one environment debate is supposed to be good media exposure. The Green party was halved. NZ First lost their only seat. I suspect we would have picked up a few seats. When I came along and covered your party launch and we did a story on that, the audience was very energised and you had been working hard. Is it just the message that needs to change? We know that the particular message that we should pay good teachers more was extremely popular and popular beyond people that normally vote act. It came down to the strategy of an election that people were saying if I am on the right, I have to vote for the biggest party. Totally untrue as far as MMP goes. Nevertheless that is the way the cookie crumbles. You do not think that the tide has gone out here on neoliberalism? The world has moved against that. You say that every time you interview me. We do have a poverty and inequality problem but it rises out of the need to get a decent house that is connected to transport at a price you can afford and I would argue that the reason we don't have that is because red tape and regulations. The public is in buying your prescription any more. We are right on the facts of that issue. Poverty and inequality and resentment of immigration is caused by a housing issue. Housing is terribly red taped. If you want to solve those problems, an education is a big issue. The inability of some of the most disadvantaged people to get a education preparing them with skills. Bill English campaigned on partnership schools. You had three years talking about charter schools. And through this campaign you have barely rated half a percent. The pointers your message and your policy did not resonate and this election result has moved the centre a little bit to the left. I would argue it was a question of circumstances in this campaign. We had a massive increase in vote share for two large parties. We could make the same argument that because the Greens have halved their representation, things have just gone right. Maybe you could argue that the extremes on either side, that the public has gone we are not interested in the extremes on either side. ACT is in Parliament and we have some proud achievements. We might have to leave that debate now. OUR PANEL NOW ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST, DR MARIA BARGH, HEAD OF THE SCHOOL OF MAORI STUDIES AT VICTORIA UNIVERSITY; ELIJAH PUE, ADVISOR IN THE OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY VICE-CHANCELLOR MAORI AT VICTORIA UNIVERSITY AND MAORI PARTY MEMBER. AND FRAN O'SULLIVAN, NZME HEAD OF BUSINESS. We will talk about what James Shaw and David Seymour said. Elijah Pue, your reaction to Maori Party. I think it is a sad day for Maori politics in general. The seven Maori seats are now going to sit in opposition. I think we have made sacrifices but we have also made gains for our people. I think the Labour Party are going to have to pick that up and I think our Maori people are going to be less. What went wrong? I think one of the things that we saw that labour ran a very aggressive campaign and that is one of the factors. I was pretty shocked at the turn out of Waiariki. Whether it is the 18-24 demographic. The aggressive campaign that labour ran. The fear factor that their argument was party vote for labour as well. Tamati Coffey is in the Waiariki seat. We will have Te Ururoa Flavell later in the program. Greens-NZ First-Labour coalition? It is not the ideal and it is a difficult one to pull off. Even Jacinda Ardern recognises that. The only commitment she gave to the Greens was the MOU would continue. She has made no commitment that they would be in cabinet. That is why there was a sense of unreality listening to James Shaw before. She knows that Winston Peters is the kingmaker and she really needs to have him on side. The Greens have said that they will just fall into line. Winston Peters said one of his bottom line was he wants to reform the reserve bank. That is huge. Steven Joyce said that was off the table. There is very little room for wriggle room. It is one of a number of policies and it remains to be seen. You can mend elements of it. It depends who the Governor is. I do not think there would be wholesale changes. What is your take on a Winston Peters and labour and Greens coalition? It depends what gets put on the table. We were talking about the portfolios on offer. In terms of the greens playing a role with that, I think there are probably a lot of national supporters and the blue/green area. But their rules would make it incredibly difficult to get that. They need to go back out to the membership. 75% of agreement is required for a coalition. My senses that MOU is very challenging. What is your take on the future for the Greens if they aren't part of a government? They will sit there with reduced numbers. What is their future? I am not too sure and I think these three years will be trying for them. I think it might be a good thing for Maori if they profit people like Marama Davidson. I was wondering if that is kind of the next port of call for Maori vote? I think greens being closer to the centre gives me a little bit more excitement knowing they are not going to oppose at salute Lee everything. I think it is a waste to the Maori Party. Did that shock you? I was shocked. I have a certain amount of admiration for the Maori Party. It has been staunch and stood for things. I think the mistake was to single that they would go with labour this time round. It made it to me more that if you are going to do that, why don't you just vote for labour anyway in the Maori seats. They have more leverage when they looked that they could go with national. They did not sell what they had done by having those avenues for power. The position in the cabinet and the whole 9 yards. Did they make a difference? Yes, I do think they have. We are going to wrap on that. Feedback. Smooth (!) We are coming up to a break. Our panel will be back. We will hear from Winston Peters and Te Ururoa Flavell. Welcome back. A live shot of Russell, where all roads lead to. We are waiting for Winston Peters. But doesn't that shot look beautiful? We're looking forward to hearing from him. But let's face it, he will keep us guessing for a couple of weeks. It will be a game of cat and mouse. And it almost always is with Winston Peters. And it will be no different this time. He has assured us that he won't fluff around. He will get organised. I was blown away that he talked before 10 o'clock, and I know it was because of the Ferry. Maybe he owed me one. LET'S LOOK AT HOW THE POTENTIAL COALITIONS ARE SHAPING UP. National and New Zealand first is enough to form a government. I don't think acts will be a part of that of Winston is in. The other scenario is labour Greens New Zealand first. It is tights but it gets there. That is why we will have a couple of weeks of negotiations. We are also waiting for the specials. The third scenario is and I think James Shaw ruled this out this morning. Is that they might potentially abstain. I don't think so personally. He left the crack in the door. I can't see that. It would wrap the Greens in half. EARLIER I SPOKE WITH NATIONAL'S CAMPAIGN CHAIR STEVEN JOYCE. Others would argue that it's nearly one in two. A gives us a strong position. HOW WOULD YOUR SUPPORTERS FEEL IF THE LEFT COULD CREATE A GOVERNMENT? ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE WITH MMP. WE WILL LOOK TO WORK WELL WITH NZ FIRST. A NUMBER OF PEOPLE HAVE RELATIONSHIPS WITH WINSTON AND HIS TEAM. Let's see that help that plays out. The Prime Minister will start on that today. WALK ME THROUGH THE PROCESS HERE. HAVE YOU MADE THE PHONE CALL TO SET UP THE PHONE CALL? The important phone call. MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT THE TWO TEAMS WILL BE TALKING TODAY AND I'M SURE THE PRIME MINISTER WILL TALK TO WINSTON PETERS AT SOME POINT. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT HE WANTS? NOT A HUGE AMOUNT, NO. I AM SURE WE WILL DISCUSS THAT LATER ON. THE SAME PEOPLE WERE HERE THE LAST TIME WE WERE INVOLVED IN THIS PROCESS. SUCH AS GERRY BROWNLEE. It takes a little bit of time. To come back to your earlier point, 46% OF NEW ZEALANDERS HAVE VOTED FOR THE DIRECTION THAT WE ARE HEADING AND AND OBVIOUSLY WINSTON PETERS PEOPLE HAVE VOTED FOR SOMETHING A BIT DIFFERENT AND IT IS ABOUT GETTING THAT BALANCE RIGHT SO IT IS DURABLE. He says he didn't have a victory party last night. He assures me he just had a cold. But he must be happy of being campaign minister. They are 1% away from where they wanted to be. He will be feeling pretty good. That is his version of jumping around. I think I pushed him on the issue of campaign tactics, the negative campaigns and $11 billion. He was comfortable with that. He said he didn't have any regrets, But I think he has to be showing a bit more He can't look smug. And I think he demonstrated he has effective statesman. Statesman is a good way to describe it. When he talked about the phone calls, Maybe Winston Peters is too busy on the phone. We are keeping our fingers crossed. AND EARLIER TODAY, I SPOKE TO LABOUR'S CAMPAIGN CHAIR PHIL TWYFORD. And it is very clear under MMP it is simply the leader who can command the majority and other people have spoken And now we are going to start working out who can put together a progressive and stable government. The people have spoken and they have given the biggest proportion to national. Shouldn't they get the first right of reply? The fundamental democratic principle of MMP is who can put together a majority and I think we are well and truly in the game to do that. National have lost their governing majority and more New Zealanders voted for change. If you include NZ First and labour and the Greens. NZ First campaigned on have you had enough? That sounds like they are campaigning for change. The majority of New Zealanders voted for change. What sort of government do we want? Do we want drift or action or do we want the past or the future? How do you go about that now? What phone calls are going on today. That process is going to begin now and Jacinda is leading that. She has a tight circle of people around her supporting her and advising. I am really not in a position to share anything. Did the first call go to the Greens? Jacinda has made it very clear that would happen so I have no doubt about that but I am not aware whether that conversation has take place. I think the phone calls. Today. What about two NZ First. How are you going to approach that? How are you going to get around that? I think that we have a good relationship with Winston and with the rest of the NZ First caucus. Do you think you have a better relationship than with national? Yes, I do. Why? There is more policy alignment between NZ First and labour. Like what? Immigration? NZ First are committed to a much more hands-on approach to economic management. They are not afraid to use the levers of the state to make markets work better for people. I look at my own area of Housing and Urban Development. There is very little space between. us I think there is a philosophical and policy alignment that I don't see on the other side. We have some strong relationships in our caucus. David Parker is very close to Winston. Is that on purpose? Because of preparing for moments like this? When you work in government all those years, Those things happen. It is much more organic than that. National set out to deliberately humiliate Winston Peters and Northland. They threw everything at trying to tip him out of the seat. Mr Joyce said that as politics. And that might be the rough-and-tumble of coalition negotiations. BACK ON OUR PANEL NOW, DR RAYMOND MILLER FROM AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY; MICHELLE BOAG, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT AND PR PRACTITIONER; AND JOHN TAMIHERE, FORMER LABOUR MP, NOW CEO OF THE WAIPAREIRA TRUST. Once this has us waiting. Is this what we are to expect? He has to call his own team and have discipline. It was a really telling comment. About is discipline with a New Zealand first. As sooner you have the balance of power and ability to choose prime minister, You need to go into a tight negotiation to do that. Do you need to get a sense of what the bottom lines will be And what you will strike a deal with. There is a lot of work that needs to be done Within the New Zealand first confederation and caucus. I suspect he is doing that now. David Seymour said what he thought I Winston Peters And not a lot of respect or love. Did he rule himself out of national and New Zealand first? I think he realises that Winston Peters wouldn't want to be part of a government with act. I think David Seymour can see the writing on the wall. The only way he can build his party is from the crossbenches or opposition. It makes it difficult for him affairs part of the government to raises profile and support. You tend to be identified as the person they are because National gave you the seat. Effectively, Winston Peters National don't need him. I think David would relish the opportunity to be a bit more strong and the advocacy of issues he wants. It is difficult when you are in a coalition arrangement. I think we will see a David Seymour out of a coalition much more active and outspoken. He is outspoken already. It will be hard for him while National is in government For him to build up his party. If National was in opposition, would be zero. Easier* actors seen as compendium to national. The same thing happened with the Maori Party. You don't wanted to be, but over time it is assimilation. It is interesting that in the election since we got MMP, There have been seven small parties that have joined the government And all have been burned by the experience And lost heavily in support. Is that part and parcel and problem with MMP. I think it is. You think it would deliver small parties with power, But what we see as most of the power lies with the major party. And the small parties struggle And they become identified with the failings of government, And they do not get blessed for any goods that they have done. And then they get punished at the next election. I think the one thing that people are ignoring about labour green New Zealand first coalition. Is that it is a bare majority. And as you know, every year in politics is either one or two Mps who exit. 61 and a bare majority with three parties And the potential for someone to resign or get sick And these things happen. I think it would be a very unstable coalition For those three parties. And I think Winston will be aware of that. National and New Zealand first have a lot of headroom, And the markets will like that And that they aren't subject to one person dropping off. It doesn't matter. It is basic arithmetic. Look at the Australian experience. Shipley did it She cobble together the renegades from Winston and alliance. From 96 to 99 A government that worked. Am MMP isn't about instability, It's about whether you can actually form the government and hold it. But the bottom lines are a lot more freeboard. Shipley was in third term of a national government, So she could afford to just get through for the last bit. A minimum winning coalition can be very stable, Because they have to be disciplined And the more Mps over the majority of the more difficult it is to hold them. It is not always the case that being in a government with a large majority That you will have stability. I COULDN'T HAVE DONE THIS ALL WITHOUT YOU. I'M JUST... I LOVE YOU ALL. I'M OVERAWED BY... YOUR SUPPORT AND YOUR LOVE. AND I'M COMING HOME. THAT'S ALL THAT MATTERS. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) AN EMOTIONAL TE URUROA FLAVELL AT HIS MARAE IN ROTORUA LAST NIGHT. THE MAORI PARTY IS OUT OF PARLIAMENT. HERE'S HOW THE NIGHT ENDED UP IN MR FLAVELL'S SEAT OF WAIARIKI. TAMATI COFFEY HAS WON WAIARIKI BY 1321 VOTES. MORENA, MAORI PARTY CO-LEADER TE URUROA FLAVELL. As at the first time you watched that back? Yes. Were you shocked by the results? I thought we were there based on the polls. It was a long day and emotional experience. Is thanking all the people. What about the future of the party? Do you still have scrap in you? Not me personally, But I am proud of what my people have done over 12 years. I think we have done amazing achievements. And young people have come through who will stand up, Because they recognise that you can't just talk about it, You have to walk it. And the young people are ready. I am ready to step aside because I think our party is in a good space despite the loss. I am sad but proud of what we have done. Your biggest achievements, what do you think it is? Surviving maybe. I think there's so many you can talk about. You can talk about legislation and changes. We had a landmark legislation or occasion That his descendents. Last night at the marae and office I had an opportunity to help people. And it is little things. From the mum and dad booted out of the house with three kids. They came to my office. And the opportunity to help those people. All the way through to the Maori language bill And the legacy left behind by Pita. And the disappointments that either the people lost faith in us And a self belief of what we can do and a political movement of R and making. We have worked our backsides off that and to have it all end As disappointing. And also to be in the leadership role when it happened. Aligning yourself with National, has that been a mistake? Some might say that And we might have been punished. But if we weren't in that relationship, we would have had nothing. The big catches being in opposition. And that is what will happen now. I want to congratulate all those they got into Parliament And I hope that all can change. If those in labour don't get in, Then they aren't used to our people Unless they can stitch up deals. And then you have a coalition of national and New Zealand first moving against the Maori seats And then you have the whole nation of Maori wards and treaty obligations That is serious stuff for Maori, And that is what they delivered and you have to live with that. If Winston Peters has is way, then things are gone. That is what I am saying and what the people voted for. It took 12 years of hard grind and it might be gone. The treaty is the keystone of Maori policy. It was to make sure we always had a part and legislative processes or outcomes. And that is up for grabs. Does labour need credit because they put Kelvin Davis as deputy. They have a strong Maori team. They put up good reasons for Maori to vote labour. They are no use if they are in opposition. And yet we had a political vehicle in our own hands That could have been in government every time Because as we saw those two seats with Maori Party Could have been the catalyst of forming a government. Did you get the strategy wrong? There was some signals that you are interested to with working with labour. It just seemed that an historical past our people have hedged their bets. There have either voted for us and labour To cover their bets. But that has backfired at this point in time. There is serious lessons to be learnt, And just may be with Maori Party out of the political environment, Our people can set back and think about the fact that our vehicle is gone. And do they believe in the independent Maori voice. Because right now it doesn't seem like they wanted. What happened and you electorate? Coffey ran an energetic campaign. I think we tried our best. As a minister I thought we had done the work. But the youth vote may have contributed. Do you think Jacinda Mania? I think it is a part of it. Word around the electorate is that he promoted. Do you think Bill English deserves another three years? I do because I believe he is an honourable person. And has people's interest in heart. We have debated huge issues around poverty, And that he has pushed ministers to dig deep To find the families that we are affecting. And I won't be part of the picture to move that along. But I think it has the right person. I think you can take the country forward. He has made strides to reach out to Maori. I think he has. And while we have been a smaller party we punched above our weight To bring significant change. A couple of years ago when John Key talked about the flag, And it didn't actually happen. It was part of taking the country forward. The National party has never needed us, Yet they decided to invite us to be part of the government arrangement And I think we have bought something significant and special That we are proud of. You talked in your speech about coming home, Is that the silver lining? But thank you for coming on and your time. Thank you. TO OUR PANEL NOW ` POLITICAL SCIENTIST DR MARIA BARGH, HEAD OF THE SCHOOL OF MAORI STUDIES AT VICTORIA UNIVERSITY; ELIJAH PUE, ADVISOR IN THE OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY VICE-CHANCELLOR MAORI AT VICTORIA UNIVERSITY AND MAORI PARTY MEMBER; AND MICHELLE BOAG, FORMER NATIONAL PARTY PRESIDENT AND PR PRACTITIONER. the move by labour having Kelvin Davis and number two is it clever or cynical? I think it is tokenistic. They haven't done anything to prioritise Maori. They did it because they had to. And Kelvin Davis would have been off the lists if he didn't winners electorate. He talked about lessons being learned. And what are the rewards to the Maori Caucus for labour. They have had a stronghold and the electorates. Often around 40%. And there is an unshakeable support even in 2005. There is something that Maori voters seem to go back to. The question is whether Maori Caucus will work hard And they are all within labour, What are the rewards or concessions they will have on policy. Will it be around water. Maybe there was a mistake to raise water tax. He raised the points such as the treaty that might get put on the back burner. If we see a nationalNew Zealand first coalition, The other question is if the referendum on the Maori seats is back on the table. And that is certainly something over the next three years the Maori party could build around. What does this do for the? This could be something Winston Peters has been hot on. What is it do for Maori seats? It depends on negotiations. I agree that Bill English is committed to improving outcomes for Maori. More so than John Key? He has a close relationship. He started learning Te Reo in 2001, And he continued to with that even though he didn't think he was Prime Minister. And that is his is dedication. His social investment is about improving the lives of Maori. I don't think we will see Bill saying That all those programs are gone. We have a new Maori member of the Maori Caucus And we have other members with a national. Such as Shane Reti. And if I was Bill English, I would be putting in place a strategy within Caucus To make sure the good work continues. And it just doesn't have to be Mps of Maori descendants. People like Nikki Kaye can make a contribution. I don't think national or jettison those programs. Do you agree with that? Could you bite this labour? Bill is one of few ministers who understands Whanua ora it is about providing support to the vulnerable. I think he has a grasp of the issues. I think what won't happen Is that the National Party have the Maori conscious And that some of that hard work that he did as Minister for Maori development Could be in jeopardy. And that is up to the seven Maori Mps and To carry on the good work. As party presidents, They were visible, why did it go wrong. I have no idea, but I know that the phrase that Marama used is that they have gone back to their abuser. And that is a tragedy For the next three years no matter the concessions they make, They cannot affect anything in government. Thank you to our panel. We have Willie Jackson after the break. IT WASN'T THE NIGHT THAT LABOUR HOPED IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WHEN JACINDA ARDERN TOOK OVER AS LEADER SEVEN WEEKS AGO. WHENA OWEN SPENT THE NIGHT AT LABOUR'S ELECTION NIGHT HEADQUARTERS IN AUCKLAND AND WATCHED THE REACTION AS THE NIGHT UNFOLDED. ELECTION PARTY PREPS BEGAN EARLY AT AUCKLAND'S AOTEA CENTRE. THERE WAS MERCHANDISE TO UNPACK, TECHNICAL CHECKS AND SETTING UP FOR 154 MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES. IN A CORNER, MARK BAMBLE WAS IN CHARGE OF ORGANISED JOLLITY, A PHOTO BOOTH. DO YOU THINK THEY HAVE A PHOTO BOOTH ACROSS THE ROAD AT THE NATIONAL PARTY? I'D SAY IT'S PROBABLY UNLIKELY. DEFINITELY, THIS IS WHERE THE FUN IS. SO, THIS IS THE MAIN ROOM IN THE LABOUR PARTY. YOU'VE GOT MERCHANDISE HERE, RED WINE HERE, RED FLOODLIGHTS, A WALL OF MEDIA, AND THE STAGE OVER HERE, WHERE SOMETIME TONIGHT JACINDA ARDERN WILL ARRIVE AND DELIVER HER SPEECH. I'M HOPING, MINIMUM, THAT NATIONAL CAN'T FORM A GOVERNMENT BY THEMSELVES. THEN WE'RE IN THE GAME WHATEVER. I'M FEELING THAT IT'S GONNA BE PRETTY CLOSE, BUT I THINK THAT SANITY WILL WIN IN THE END, AND IT'S TIME WE GOT RID OF THIS NEOLIBERAL STUFF WE'VE HAD FOR THE LAST NINE YEARS, AND WE JUST NEED TO GET BACK TO WHAT PEOPLE REALLY WANT. FEELING IT'S OUR TIME. WE CAN'T WAIT THREE MORE YEARS. IT'S GONNA BE A SITUATION FOR BILL ENGLISH WHEN HE'S NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO CLAIM THE MAJORITY LIKE HE HAS IN THE PAST. JUST TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF STOCK HERE AND TRY AND WORK OUT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THESE PARTY VOTES THERE. NATIONAL AT 46.6% WITH 13% OF THE VOTE COUNTED. YOU'RE HOPING THAT LABOUR'S GONNA PULL THROUGH TONIGHT? YES, LABOUR, GREEN, NZ FIRST COALITION. AS FANCY FOCACCIA SANDWICHES WERE SERVED, ALL EYES WERE NOW ON THE MAORI SEATS. BUT PLEASANTLY SURPRISED THAT IT'S ACTUALLY ME OUT IN FRONT. SO, TELL ME. IT'S 7.55. WHAT'S HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT? IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE MAORI SEATS MIGHT BE WON BY LABOUR. ALL OF THEM, WHICH WOULD BE THE END OF THE MAORI PARTY. HE'S AHEAD BY 2500. KELVIN? KELVIN IS. SO, THAT'S LOOKING PRETTY SECURE? I THINK THAT WE'VE SUNK HIM. RIGHT. TWO FOR ONE DIDN'T WORK. A WIN FOR LABOUR IN CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL WAS ANOTHER WELCOME BOOST, BUT FOR THIS AUDIENCE, NATIONAL'S LEADING PARTY VOTE MADE FOR GRIM VIEWING. IF YOU GET THE SENSE THAT IT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH ALL NIGHT, YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. THE PREDICTIONS HAVE STAYED RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THIS IS THE REPRESENTATION OF PARLIAMENT AS IT LOOKS ON THOSE NUMBERS. WE ARE DISAPPOINTED, BUT FEW ISSUES, SOME FOR MYSELF AND PUBLIC ISSUE, BECAUSE SHE EARLY DECLARE SOME TAX POLICIES. SHE SHOULDN'T DECLARE THE TAX POLICY. IT'S NOT NECESSARILY TURNING OUT HOW WE WOULD LIKE TONIGHT. IN THE LONG RUN, I REALLY THINK IT'S GOING IN OUR DIRECTION. I THINK THERE'S ONLY 48% OF THE VOTE COME IN, AND THERE'S A LOT OF SPECIAL VOTES TO COUNT, SO IT'S NOT OVER YET. NOW AUCKLAND-BASED LABOUR MPS WERE BEGINNING TO TRICKLE IN, ALONG WITH DEPUTY LEADER, KELVIN DAVIS. EVEN AS IT STANDS, WE'RE GONNA GET PROBABLY A DOZEN NEW MPS IN THE LABOUR PARTY, AND, YOU KNOW, WE JUST WANT TO BUILD FROM WHERE WE ARE, AND HOPEFULLY OUR PARTY VOTE INCREASES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. YOU ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC. DO YOU THINK PEOPLE WILL STILL BUY T-SHIRTS SAYING LET'S DO THIS? I THINK THE IDEAS STILL GO ON. THE IDEAS AND THE CHANGE THAT JACINDA'S BROUGHT TO THE WHOLE PARTY STILL GOES ON, AND WE STILL WANNA REMEMBER THAT. IT'S 10 O'CLOCK, AND WE'VE HAD 80% OF THE VOTES COUNTED, WITH SOME GLUM-LOOKING FACES HERE. BASICALLY, WE'RE JUST WAITING FOR JACINDA TO ARRIVE. YOU ARRIVED HERE WITH PRETTY HIGH HOPES. ABSOLUTELY. HOW IS IT PANNING OUT FOR YOU? REALLY SAD. REALLY SAD FOR THE PEOPLE THAT WILL HAVE TO ENDURE ANOTHER THREE YEARS OF THIS GOVERNMENT. WE WERE ALL LOOKING FORWARD TO JACINDA TO COME UP AS A PRIME MINISTER, BECAUSE WE CAN TELL THAT HER HEART WAS FOR THE PEOPLE, AND SHE ALWAYS PUT THE PEOPLE FIRST. I'M FEELING GUTTED, REALLY. REALLY GUTTED. THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE LIVING IN DEPRIVATION WHO WILL NOT BE HELPED BY THIS GOVERNMENT. THE BEST THING THAT JACINDA TAUGHT US IS TO BE RELENTLESSLY POSITIVE NO MATTER THE OUTCOME. WE BETTER GET DOWN THERE. THANK YOU, GUYS. ALL: BYE! WITH THE LEAD MAJORITY TONIGHT, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT... WHEN THE SUBDUED ROOM LEARNT THAT JACINDA WAS FINALLY ON HER WAY, SOMETHING HAPPENED. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) ALL CHANT: JACINDA! THE MOOD LIFTED, MEDIA AND GUESTS CRAMMED THE VENUE ENTRANCE AND JACINDA-MANIA KICKED IN. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) NO MATTER WHERE TONIGHT'S RESULT TAKES US, I'M COMMITTED TO A FUTURE WE CAN ALL BE PROUD OF, A FUTURE THAT IS BETTER, SO LET'S KEEP DOING THIS. (CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) JOINING ME NOW IS WILLIE JACKSON, NEW LABOUR LIST MP. YOU MUST BE VERY PERSONALLY HAPPY WITH THIS. You have all the Maori seats now. You ran their campaign for the MaOri Mps. I am very proud of the performance our Mps. I was lucky because I had such great and committed Maori Mps. Tamati Coffey was icing on the cake. Maori have been hurting. The Maori Party has been tainted by the association with national. They cannot find homes and house to sticks down the tubes. Someone was going to suffer. What can Labour do if you are in opposition> they may as well have been in opposition the last year. It is only fitting that we congratulate them in terms of their commitment but the reality is that their association with national particularly in the last year has killed them. Our people cannot get into state houses. They have marked up in terms of their strategy going forward. They cannot waffle on about tino rangatiratanga. It is a nonsense to suggest that they are so independent and so Maori. Winston Peters ` do you think labour can do a deal? No doubt about it. Winston has proven to be a very good partner for labour in the past. Helen Clark said that. You know that he is a great politician. He was a tremendous foreign affairs Minister. Helen Clark talked about him as being a stable and a genuine and credible partner. How well do you know him? I know him pretty well. It would make sense for you to talk to him. Talk to the boss but I would not mind being involved. They have some good people. I have admired him through the years in terms of his stance. What is your gut telling you? I think we have a good chance with Winston because he is not happy with national. They all ganged up on him and took his Northland seat away. They leaked information on him. I was watching Steven Joyce, but the reality is he has got a few beefs with him. He has a relationship with us and he has working class principles. We hear all his talk about the Maori Party. Have you sent him a text or communicated with him overnight? Not overnight. We have been concentrating on labour staff and proud of the team last night. Jacinda Ardern did a terrific job. We are a big chance. All these national party people like Michelle Boag, they want to get the limos now but that is nonsense and there is a way to go in this. We have a real chance not just with Winston. Ron Mark came from labour and Shane Jones came from labour. Thank you very much for your time. Kia ora. We are still hoping we are going to get Winston Peters. You are looking at a picturesque scene of Russell. The only thing that is missing is Winston Peters. DR RAYMOND MILLER IS BACK ON THE PANEL, ALONG WITH FRAN O'SULLIVAN AND JOHN TAMIHERE. What did you make of what Willie Jackson had to say. Pretty dismissive of the Maori Party. There is no love lost. There is two competitors in the Maori seats and our labour has taken them all back. Maori Party's survival in the next election is not a done deal either. Maori people have voted en masse against the National Party. that was the net result of it. Willie Jackson ran a very good campaign. He has done it before. They organised as a group and they shared resources. Maori Party has run very poor strategic campaigns as a group in the past. They have paid the penalty for that. There is no catalyst for shift. What there was was a growing axed and un-ease and mistrust of the present government and the Maori seats. He has a long-term relationship with Winston Peters, Willie has. It is a very trusting one and loyal one. I don't want to second-guess these things. Bill English will lead the negotiation with Winston and Jacinda will. Far be it from me to advance Willie's interests. We have seen a flavour of what we were not expecting ` Winston did not turn up. What can we expect over the next week? If he is true to form and behaving like he did in 1996, they should be checking the fishing boats leaving Russell right now. He went away on a five day fishing expedition in 1996. I do think very strongly that there will be parallel negotiations taking place between Winston and labour and national. Even though national looks like it is in the box seat I do not think we can rule out the possibility of labour forming a labour and NZ First minority government. I tend to agree with that. One theory also he might not go fishing but he might go down to Geraldine. He might take a bit of counsel there. I think it will be difficult either which way. Some of the polities don't fit together. What are those bottom line is going to be? I do agree here that there was a lot of anger during the campaign between Winston and between national. Whether they can put that one side, I don't know. I really believe Labour could have played a little bit more craftily and given the nod two don't vote for Willow-Jean Prime in that seat and he could have had that. LET'S BRING IN OUR PANEL ` RAYMOND, CORIN AND JESS. It has been a long month away from home. Happy birthday to my third son who turned eight today, Jacob. A couple of weeks ago it looked like Jacinda had this in the bag. It plateaued and dipped. It surprised me a little bit how quickly it turned. It was volatile. The tax attack was absolutely instrumental in that. The flip-flop. It was a crucial factor. I think what we have learned is that we have the real deal and she has the potential to be a prime minister now or in three years time if she wants it. Her grip on the Labour Party is strong. Some people thought that she really have the substance or the credibility but I think she showed she is a very fast learner. Bill English campaigned so well in the end. We saw that side of him. He brought it out in the campaign and it really worked in those last two weeks. Would you agree with what Corin said about Bill. In the beginning of the campaign he sounded like a finance minister. The numbers kept getting trotted out. It was all pretty technical. Somewhere during the campaign he just let himself go and he became a prime minister and we saw much more of the big expansive picture. He has replaced one of the most popular prime ministers of all time so it has been hard for him to make that adjustment. He certainly made in the latter two weeks. The other things I noticed in the regions is just how in gauged people were with politics in a way that a lot of people had been before. Getting involved in looking at policies. Talking about policies at the dining room table and tuning into shows like this and commenting on them. I think that is Jacinda did coming and did for that campaign. You do quite a lot with Winston Peters over the last couple of weeks. Some people think he is prickly but that is not your take? It is political theatre for Winston Peters and I covered him for the 2008 campaign when he lost Tauranga and I was learning that the bluster and the friction that he has with the media he turns off and gives a big smile and walks away and then you get a better insight into him. Thank you for your hard work. MARAE IS NEXT WITH A ONE-HOUR PROGRAMME. REMEMBER Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.30PM. THANKS FOR WATCHING, AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. 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