MORENA, GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M GREG BOYED. TODAY ` A NEW COLMAR BRUNTON POLITICAL POLL FOR OUR LAST PROGRAMME OF THE YEAR. WILL IT BE A MERRY CHRISTMAS FOR THE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT? AND COLMAR BRUNTON HAS CHANGED ITS POLLING METHODOLOGY, MOVING TO A 50/50 MIX OF MOBILE PHONES AND LANDLINES. THE HEAD OF COLMAR BRUNTON JASON SHOEBRIDGE WILL EXPLAIN WHY AND TALK ABOUT HOW BREXIT AND THE US ELECTION CHALLENGED THE POLLING INDUSTRY. AND A RARE TELEVISION INTERVIEW ` THE RESERVE BANK'S ACTING GOVERNOR GRANT SPENCER SAT DOWN WITH POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN THIS WEEK TO TALK ABOUT THE CHALLENGE OF PERSISTENTLY LOW INFLATION. SO WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS, YOU CAN'T RAISE INTEREST RATES TO COOL DOWN THE MARKET ANY MORE. NO. AND AS IT'S OUR LAST PROGRAMME OF THE YEAR, WHENA OWEN LOOKS AT Q+A'S KEY MOMENTS IN WHAT'S BEEN A FASCINATING YEAR IN POLITICS. CROWD CHANTS: JACINDA! JACINDA! WERE YOU SHOCKED BY THE RESULTS LAST NIGHT? DID YOU HAVE AN INKLING EARLY ON? NO, I DIDN'T. CAPTIONS BY CHELSEA BRADY AND JUNE YEOW. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017 AND WE'LL HAVE ANALYSIS FROM OUR PANEL ` JOSIE PAGANI, FORMER LABOUR CANDIDATE, THE DIRECTOR OF THE COUNCIL FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. PORIRUA MAYOR MIKE TANA, A FORMER PSA PRESIDENT. AND THOMAS PRYOR, FORMER POLITICAL STAFFER ` FOR NATIONAL AND IN THE UK ` AND NOW GOVERNMENT RELATIONS CONSULTANT. BUT WE'LL START WITH OUR Q+A COLMAR BRUNTON POLL, AND THERE'S BEEN NO TRADITIONAL POST-ELECTION BOUNCE IN THE POLLS FOR THE NEW LABOUR-LED COALITION GOVERNMENT. HERE'S POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN WITH THE NUMBERS. WHILE JACINDA ARDERN IS CLEARLY EMBRACING SOME OF THE SOFTER ROLES IN HER NEW JOB, HER FIRST SIX WEEKS AS PRIME MINISTER HAVE BEEN NO WALK IN THE PARK,... THERE'S A LOT OF WORK FOR US TO DO. ...WITH THE TASK OF BEDDING IN A GOVERNMENT MADE UP OF THREE PARTIES NOT MADE ANY EASIER BY AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AND STILL HURTING NATIONAL PARTY OPPOSITION INTENT ON ENSURING THERE'S NO HONEYMOON. THEY'VE GOT THREE PARTIES. THEY DIDN'T KNOW THEIR OWN NUMBERS. AND OUR FIRST Q+A 1 NEWS COLMAR BRUNTON POLL SINCE THE ELECTION SHOWS NATIONAL REMAINS THE LARGEST PARTY AT 46%, UP SLIGHTLY ON ITS ELECTION RESULT OF 44.4% OF THE VOTE. LABOUR HAS CLOSED THE GAP SLIGHTLY TO BE AT 39%, UP JUST OVER 2% ON ITS ELECTION RESULT. ITS SUPPORT PARTNER, THE GREENS, ARE ON 7%, UP A TAD ON THEIR ELECTION RESULT OF 6.3%. BUT LABOUR'S COALITION PARTNER, NEW ZEALAND FIRST, HOWEVER, ARE AT 5%, DOWN OVER 2% ON ITS ELECTION RESULT OF 7.2. TOP IS AT 1%, DOWN FROM ITS ELECTION RESULT OF 2.4, WHILE THE MAORI PARTY ARE STEADY ON 1%. WHEN IT COMES TO SEATS IN THE HOUSE, NATIONAL WOULD HAVE THE MOST, WITH 57, HOWEVER, EVEN WITH ACT'S ONE, WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT. LABOUR WOULD HAVE 48 SEATS, AND ALONG WITH THE GREENS' NINE AND NEW ZEALAND FIRST'S SIX, WOULD HAVE 63 SEATS, THE SAME AS THE LABOUR-LED COALITION CURRENTLY HAS IN PARLIAMENT NOW. WE'RE MAKING PROGRESS, BUT AS A GOVERNMENT, AS A TEAM, WE ARE COMMITTED TO EARNING PEOPLE'S SUPPORT. WE'RE GONNA DO THAT OVER THREE YEARS, AND ULTIMATELY, PEOPLE WILL JUDGE US ON WHAT WE ACHIEVE. BACK IN 1999 AND 2008, THE INCOMING GOVERNMENTS BOTH SAW BIG POLL BOUNCES AFTER TAKING OFFICE. I THINK THE GOVERNMENT WOULD'VE EXPECTED THAT WITH A LOT OF FAVOURABLE PUBLICITY FROM THE FORMATION OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE NEWNESS OF IT, THAT THEY'D GET A BIGGER BOUNCE IN SUPPORT FROM THE PUBLIC. BUT I THINK THEY'VE HAD SUCH A MESSY START OF NOT BEING ABLE TO DO THINGS THEY SAID THEY'D DO. NO, I DON'T THINK SO. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SORT OF FEELING THEIR WAY INTO THE NEW GOVERNMENT, TO BE JUDGED ON OUR RECORD. WHEN IT COMES TO LEADERSHIP, JACINDA ARDERN HIT THE GROUND RUNNING AT APEC IN VIETNAM, WHERE SHE PUSHED AUSTRALIA OVER THE REFUGEE ISSUE AND HELPED PROGRESS A NEW VERSION OF THE TPP TRADE DEAL. THIS IS A DIFFERENT DEAL. AND WHEN IT COMES TO PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER, JACINDA ARDERN HAS OPENED UP A BIG LEAD OVER BILL ENGLISH. IN THIS POLL, SHE'S ON 37%, WHILE BILL ENGLISH IS BACK ON 28%. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER WINSTON PETERS IS IN THIRD PLACE, ON 5%. THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS HAD SOME EARLY POLICY WINS, DELIVERING ON FREE TERTIARY EDUCATION AND THE EXTENSION OF PAID PARENTAL LEAVE. WE ASKED KIWIS WHETHER THEY THOUGHT THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT IS HEADING IN THE RIGHT OR WRONG DIRECTION. 51% OF KIWIS THINK IT IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, WITH 26% SAYING IT'S THE WRONG DIRECTION, AND 23% DON'T KNOW. A MORE DETAILED STEER ON THE GOVERNMENT'S DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SO-CALLED MINI-BUDGET, DUE NEXT WEEK. FOR JACINDA ARDERN,... WHISPERS: COME IN IF YOU'D LIKE. ...IT'S AN IMPORTANT MOMENT WHICH SHE'LL BE HOPING WILL HELP HER WIN OVER THOSE STILL SCEPTICAL OF HER NEW GOVERNMENT. OUR POLITICAL EDITOR CORIN DANN THERE WITH THE NUMBERS. Josie starting with you. A lack of balance for Labour. They do not want to hear this. They will be disappointed with that. Their internal polling is showing them a little bit better. But the response was spot on. You had James Shaw saying we expect people to be judging us on our record. It's only been six weeks. And Jacinda's response was exactly the same. They won the election. They weren't the biggest party. Jacinda really nailed the campaign. But they were not the biggest party. They still have to address the issues as to why that was. Why were they in opposition for nine years? It's a combination of an urban miserable is. Which they have now rejected. A little bit of making you a better person, rather than making you better off. Jacinda might have rejected all of that, but the proof is in the pudding. Voters are looking at that and saying we like Jacinda, we want to believe it, but we will judge later. Thomas, it has been a busy start. Manus Island, the list goes on. Has it been a messy start? I think it has. This is a government that isn't quite across the details. An operational level, they have been scrambling to get officers staffed. There have been some early problems. I think the challenge for Labour and the government is to come back firing in February. They need to make sure the basic business as usual stuff is looked after. If not, this will develop. And I think National have been good at exploiting it so far. I wonder if some of this is a result of a genuine MMP government. Because they have been in opposition for nine years, it is a total dynamic change for them. I think they were expecting to be in opposition. Now they have been given this opportunity. Now, especially Jacinda, is really running for it. When I see her speak and represent the whole of New Zealand, from where I am and Porirua, there is a whole lot of trust building around a young woman who is a great leader. The party itself is still being tested. Her favourability is have gone up, haven't they? People feel like the country is heading in the right direction. About two thirds is a lot. That is good for the government. It is not good that people feel the economy will get worse next year. If petrol prices are going up, the cost of living goes up, if they start to feel like that becomes a narrative, then Labour's option is to focus entirely on how we are going to increase your wages and incomes. The numbers speak for themselves. This is the strongest opposition, any government could hope for. Simon Bridges on the war path. How will that be a factor going ahead? This is the strongest opposition we've ever seen in New Zealand in terms of numbers. National have been united. They have hammered Labour on the procedural stuff. It plays a narrative that we are experienced and those people are inexperienced. After Christmas, if Jacinda is looking more experience, tthey will need another line of attack. It is a question of who wins a narrative? Inexperienced versus experience? This is a government that almost did not expect to be in government. Behind-the-scenes we hear that not everyone is in place. What do you hear about that? I think they weren't expecting to be in power to do a lot of the back room set ups. That is why they have done this mad scramble. The interesting thing about this poll is that it is a bit of a false thorn for National. It is going to be a massive challenge for them over the next three years. Maybe they will pick up some more percentage points from New Zealand First and one or two from soft Labour voters. I think it will be an ongoing challenge for them. The reality of this election campaign is that they cannot govern alone. No one party can. The challenge for Labour is they can really be a transformational Labour government if they decide to be, Rather than an incrementalist managerial government. It is regional development, wages, focusing on that controversial stuff, like work for the dole. Bill English ` the future for him. How much of a future do you think he has? I think that is up to Bill. He has a steady hand. He had really good ideas and the party was behind him. I think that is totally up to. Bill. But it will require the support of the leaders of the party. Should he stay on? I think that is up to him. I don't think he will be challenged. There is no other front runner. There are people trying to position themselves, like Bridges, they will see the damage to Labour in 2008, and they will want to avoid that. Labour has been pragmatic about what it takes to stay in power. I think they will live in Bill's hands. If he wants it. In a year, it wouldn't surprise me if he wants to stand down. I think the release of the art to out this week about child poverty, 20,000 kids being lifted out of material hardship, that is not nothing. The challenge for National is a come up with good ideas. It is probably what Labour didn't do enough of an opposition. THE Q+A-1 NEWS-COLMAR BRUNTON POLL WAS OF JUST OVER 1000 ELIGIBLE VOTERS AND TAKEN BETWEEN NOVEMBER 29TH AND DECEMBER 5TH. INTERVIEWS WERE CONDUCTED USING A 50/50 SPLIT OF LANDLINE AND MOBILE PHONES. THE POLL HAS A MARGIN OF ERROR OF PLUS OR MINUS 3.1%. SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER @NZQANDA YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A@TVNZ.CO.NZ. OR TEXT YOUR THOUGHTS AND FIRST NAME TO 2211. KEEP THEM BRIEF ` EACH TEXT COSTS 50 CENTS. UP NEXT ` WE'LL TALK ABOUT OUR POLL AND HOW THE POLLING INDUSTRY HAS BEEN CHALLENGED BY THE US ELECTION AND BREXIT. THE HEAD OF COLMAR BRUNTON IS HERE AFTER THE BREAK. WELCOME BACK, AND GOOD MORNING TO JASON SHOEBRIDGE, CEO OF KANTAR INSIGHTS, THE PARENT COMPANY OF COLMAR BRUNTON: Tthank you for being here. You have changed your polling for the first time. It is now a 50-50 split between mobile and landline. Why now? A lot of us have not had landlines for many years. It is about future proofing our poll going forward. Previously, we just dialled landlines. We have seen a decrease in penetration of landlines in New Zealand. The 2013 census told us 14 percent of households did not have a landline. But when you break that down, households containing 18 to 34-year-olds, 20 percent did not have a landline. We expect that to have increased since 2013 and will increase further. This is about future proofing our poll which gives us an accurate poll. That is quite a big chunk of the population, particularly the younger voters who are not part of your system. How did you make sure they were included? We still managed to get enough younger voters last time. If you look at our last poll and how close it was to the election night, results, that showed we got a pretty accurate read on people's voting intentions. We picked up enough younger people in our sample. The issue going forward is that it will be harder and harder. Why 50-50? These days, there must be adults who do not have access to a mobile phone, and perhaps are in rural properties will stop why not have an 80-20 split? We still like having landlines as a methodology, because we are able to get a geographic spread. The first few digits tell us where in the country you live. It means we can get a good geographic spread of New Zealand. We think 50-50 gives us the best of both worlds. Do you think that will change over time? Who knows how the penetration of landlines will decrease. We know it will continue to decrease, depending on that rate of change, we may have to revisit it. We are confident for the cycle of the next three years. Were you to slow in making this change? I do not think so. If you look at the results that we got on our last poll before the last election, and you compare that to the election might result, it was pretty accurate. Between one and two percent out for the major parties. The proof for us is how close we can get that last poll to the election night result. What about having an online element? Why haven't you included that? When you switch to an online methodology, the fact you are not speaking to someone, the fact the respondent is seeing questions on the screen, potentially gives you a discontinuity in the trend. We piloted this new methodology, and what we found was it gave us a more representative sample and a more accurate poll. This is the reason we have gone with a new approach. Did you try online? We have other companies within the Kantar Insights group, and we found this is a better way to go. I want to talk big picture, internationally. Brexit and the US election, the polls did not get it right. Do you think people lost confidence in the polls? Certainly there was a loss of confidence. It is fair to say our polls this time attracted more media attention then we would have had historically. What went wrong? There are some different factors. If you look at the US, the polls got the popular vote pretty much right. They had Hillary Clinton two or three percent ahead. That's how it went on the night. The issue with the US election is that the popular vote doesn't decide the election. There is an electoral college system. That makes it much more difficult. The other issue in the US elections is that turnout was quite different to what it had been historically. There was a much bigger turnout from lower income white voters and key states. And a lower turnout from ethnic minorities. There was also a large amount of undecided voters. When you run a poll, invariably those polls happen two or three days before the election, and if people have not made up their mind, you have to make assumptions. They tended to break for Trump. The issue with Brexit is it wwas a referendum. It was hard to predict. We have seen reports that said on the last day, nine percent of voters hadn't yet decided which way they were going to vote. And they tended to vote for leave. 54 percent of voters who hadn't voted in the previous general election. It turned out to vote in the referendum. So there were some unique factors around Brexit. So the underlying factors that were the rise and undecided voters and turn out. . Is that what's can skew vote? The poll is a snapshot in time. First of all, you are wanting people who said they are going to vote a particular way to make sure they do actually turn out. There are events that can happen after that last poll where people make up their mind. Is that different in New Zealand because of our size? Because where a smaller country? It is easier in New Zealand, but it is not the size of the country that does that. Our electoral system of proportional representation helps. You do not have that US situation where you poll that way and have the electoral college system distorting it. Also our turnout is pretty high and pretty consistent. We haven't historically been exposed to those sorts of swings that have influenced Brexit and the US election. We saw vote compass play a part in the selection. We had nearly half a million people participating. Are we going to see a changing face in polling where we have huge numbers wanting to take part in things like that. Is that a challenge for you going forward? Potentially. With polls where people opt in, you are not getting a representative sample. What we will see going forward, I think, is greater use of social media. Social media is complimentary to polling because it gives you a good view about what people are talking about. It gives you some context for the numbers you are seeing in the polls. It is a lead indicator for how polls may change. It will not replace polls, but it is complimentary. Things like Vote Compass as we you get a more rounded view. I wanted to get your thoughts on this quote. A British Labour MP said opinion polls take the poetry out of politics. What is your take on that? . There is always this discussion about should we have public polling. Winston Peters would agree with that. If we do not have public polling, you can be pretty certain the political parties themselves will still be doing their own internal polling. It seems to me it is a good idea for the public to have their own poll as part of a functioning democracy. I think it is in an essential role to play. Thank you. AFTER THE BREAK ` RESERVE BANK ACTING GOVERNOR GRANT SPENCER. HE SAYS EXPECT LOW INTEREST RATES FOR SOME TIME YET. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR SAVERS AND MORTGAGE HOLDERS? THAT'S NEXT. CONTROLLING INFLATION ` OR PRICE STABILITY ` IS A KEY ROLE FOR ANY CENTRAL BANK. TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE CAN BE HARMFUL FOR AN ECONOMY THAT IS AIMING FOR STEADY GROWTH. BUT IN A SPEECH THIS WEEK, THE RESERVE BANK'S ACTING GOVERNOR, GRANT SPENCER, ADMITTED HIS BANK'S WEAPON AGAINST INFLATION ` DIALLING THE OCR UP OR DOWN ` ISN'T WORKING SO WELL ANYMORE. GLOBAL INFLATION HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS, AND NO MATTER WHAT OUR RESERVE BANK HAS DONE, OUR INFLATION RATE HAS HOVERED AROUND THE BOTTOM OF ITS TARGET BAND. ONE RESULT OF THAT IS MORTGAGE RATES AND SAVINGS INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN LOW TOO. SO CORIN STARTED HIS INTERVIEW WITH GRANT SPENCER BY ASKING ` RATHER TONGUE IN CHEEK ` WHETHER THE LOW INFLATION ENVIRONMENT WAS PUTTING THE RESERVE BANK OUT OF A JOB? I DON'T THINK IT IS PUTTING US OUT OF A JOB; I THINK IT'S REALLY JUST, SORT OF, SLOWER REACTIONS. AND WE'RE NOT REALLY SURE WHETHER THESE ARE TEMPORARY SLOW REACTIONS OR MORE PERMANENT, BUT WE NEED TO EVOLVE AND CHANGE OUR FRAMEWORK AS THESE CONDITIONS` BUT IT'S SIGNIFICANT, ISN'T IT? BECAUSE IF OUR ECONOMY, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS TO GO INTO RECESSION OR IT RUNS TOO HOT, WE NEED THAT TOOL THAT YOU HAVE ` THE OFFICIAL CASH RATE TO DEAL WITH THAT. BUT WHAT YOU SEEM TO BE SAYING IS THAT OUR ABILITY TO DEAL WITH DOMESTIC PROBLEMS OR GOOD PROBLEMS IN THE ECONOMY IS REDUCED. IS THAT WHAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH? WELL, I'M SAYING IT'S HAVING LESS, POTENTIALLY, LEVERAGE OVER INFLATION. MONETARY POLICY CAN STILL BE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUTPUT, EMPLOYMENT, THE EXCHANGE RATE ETC. SO ONE OF THE THINGS I WAS SAYING IS THAT IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE FOR US TO ACTUALLY BE MORE FLEXIBLE IN OUR TARGETING OF INFLATION AND TAKE MORE ACCOUNT OF SOME OF THE CHANGES IN SOME OF THOSE OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY, SUCH AS OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR, FOR A START, BORROWERS? ARE WE LOOKING AT A SITUATION, IF INFLATION IS MORE STABLE, LOWER FOR LONGER, THAT THIS ENVIRONMENT WE'RE IN OF LOW INTEREST RATES IS GOING TO STAY? LOW INFLATION MEANS LOW INTEREST RATES, AND, YEAH, IF LOW INFLATION STAYS LONGER, LOW INTEREST RATES WILL STAY LONGER. THAT'S CORRECT. SO DOES THAT ALSO MEAN A BIG UNDERPINNING FOR A HOUSING MARKET THAT IS STILL VERY OVERVALUED, IN PARTICULAR IN AUCKLAND? WELL, THAT'S ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE'VE HAD, REALLY, OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS ` CERTAINLY, THE PAST FIVE YEARS ` WHERE LOW CPI INFLATION MEANS THAT WE'RE HAVING TO KEEP POLICY RATES LOW, BUT THAT'S BEEN A STIMULUS FOR ASSET PRICES AND, IN PARTICULAR, HOUSING. AND THIS HAS HAPPENED IN EVERY OTHER COUNTRY AS WELL. AND SO WE'VE HAD THESE ISSUES WITH ESCALATING HOUSE PRICES AND RISKS TO FINANCIAL SYSTEMS. SO WHAT THAT MEANS, RIGHT, IS YOU CAN'T RAISE INTEREST RATES TO COOL OFF THE HOUSING MARKET ANY MORE. NO. WE CAN TRY` WE HAVE REGARD TO, BUT YOU'RE RIGHT, BECAUSE THE MAIN TARGET FOR OUR MONETARY POLICY IS CPI INFLATION. SO INTEREST RATES CAN'T BE USED TO HEAD OFF A HOUSING BOOM, AND THAT'S WHY WE MOVED TO INTRODUCE MACRO-PRUDENTIAL POLICIES TO HELP US OUT ON THAT FRONT. THIS IS YOUR LVR LENDING RESTRICTIONS AND THE DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIOS WHICH YOU'VE ASKED FOR, RIGHT? YEAH, WELL, BACK IN 2013, WHEN WE SET THIS UP, WE HAVE A TOOLKIT WITH A NUMBER OF INSTRUMENTS IN IT. LVRS ARE THE MAIN ONE, AND THAT'S THE ONE THAT WE IMPLEMENTED, AS YOU KNOW, IN 2013. WE'VE HAD DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THAT OVER THE PAST THREE OR FOUR YEARS. WOULD IT JUST BE EASIER IF`? INSTEAD OF THE RESERVE BANK, AN UNELECTED BODY, HAVING TO DELVE INTO ISSUES OF AFFECTING HOW MUCH A FIRST-HOME BUYER CAN BORROW, WOULDN'T IT HAVE JUST BEEN EASIER FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO BRING IN A CAPITAL GAINS TAX OR ACTUALLY DEAL WITH THOSE ISSUES RATHER THAN LEAVE IT TO AN INDEPENDENT BODY? WELL, THERE ARE TWO ASPECTS TO MACRO-PRUDENTIAL POLICY. ONE IS THE MACRO PART, WHICH IS, LIKE, MACROMANAGEMENT, AND THAT'S PART OF OUR GAME IN TERMS OF MONETARY POLICY ` MACROMANAGEMENT. THE OTHER IS PRUDENTIAL, SO THE OTHER MAIN RESPONSIBILITY WE HAVE IS PRUDENTIAL MANAGEMENT. SO THESE TOOLS ARE MAINLY ABOUT TRYING TO REDUCE RISK IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. AND THIS IS THE BANKS LENDING TOO MUCH TO PEOPLE, PEOPLE TAKING ON TOO MUCH DEBT? THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE? THAT'S RIGHT. WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISKS IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. AND SO THOSE RISKS ARE GOING TO INCREASE IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE BIG BOOMS AND BUSTS IN HOUSING. WE'RE TRYING TO MODERATE THAT. WE'LL NEVER STOP IT, BUT THE MACRO-PRUDENTIAL POLICIES ARE AIMED AT MODERATING THOSE CYCLES. LET ME PUT IT ANOTHER WAY, THEN. NOW THAT WE'RE IN A PERIOD WHERE HOUSE PRICES HAVE FLATTENED ` CERTAINLY IN AUCKLAND, IF NOT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ` AND THIS GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO LOOK AT THE TAX ISSUES, WOULDN'T IT MAKE SENSE FOR THEM TO PUT IN A CAPITAL GAINS TAX? WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE A PROPER CAPITAL GAINS TAX SO THAT YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY SO MUCH ABOUT THE MACRO BIT THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT? WELL, THE TAX TREATMENT OF HOUSING IS VERY RELEVANT, AND WE'VE CALLED FOR MORE APPROPRIATE TAX TREATMENT OF HOUSING IN THE PAST, BECAUSE HOUSING HAS BEEN A TAX-FAVOURED INVESTMENT. AND SO THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS PROPOSING TO SHIFT OUT THE BRIGHT-LINE TEST FROM TWO YEARS TO FIVE YEARS. THAT'S EFFECTIVELY A CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON HOUSING, SO IN THAT SENSE, THAT'S ONE THING THAT WILL HELP TO HEAD OFF FURTHER ESCALATION IN HOUSE PRICES FROM THE INVESTOR SIDE OF THINGS. DOES IT NEED TO GO FURTHER, THOUGH? THAT'S MY QUESTION. ANYTHING MORE? WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'RE NOT TAX EXPERTS. I THINK THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT. I THINK IT HAS HAD AN IMPACT ALREADY ` JUST THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF IT. AND SO THAT'S HELPED TO REDUCE THE INVESTOR INTEREST. THAT'S BEEN ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS OF WHY THE AUCKLAND HOUSING HAS COME OFF OVER THE PAST YEAR. IS IT YOUR ROLE TO THINK ABOUT EQUALITY? BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CAME THROUGH IN YOUR SPEECH WAS THAT WAGES HAVE CLEARLY NOT RISEN GREATLY, THAT THEY ARE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF SOME OF THESE GLOBAL FORCES YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT BUT ALSO SOME DOMESTIC FACTORS AS WELL. YET, WITH BORROWING COSTS SO LOW, PEOPLE ABLE TO INVEST IN THE SHAREMARKET AND ASSETS, THEY'RE DOING VERY WELL. IS THERE AN EQUALITY ISSUE AROUND YOUR THINKING? DISTRIBUTION EQUALITY, THAT IS NOT PART OF THE RESERVE BANK'S MANDATE. OUR MANDATE IS ABOUT PRICE STABILITY AND ABOUT FINANCIAL STABILITY, AND THAT'S WHAT WE CAN DO. WE HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO ADDRESS THOSE OBJECTIVES. WE DON'T HAVE A MANDATE FOR ECONOMIC DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTION OR WEALTH DISTRIBUTION. THAT'S THE JOB OF THE GOVERNMENT. EVEN IF YOUR POLICIES AFFECT IT, THOUGH? EVEN IF THE POLICIES THAT YOU'RE SETTING MAY AFFECT IT? YEAH, ALL THOSE POLICIES THAT WE HAVE WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT. I MEAN, WE MOVE INTEREST RATES UP AND DOWN. THEY HAVE AN IMPACT. YOU INCREASE AN INTEREST RATE, IT IMPROVES THE WELL-BEING OF A SAVER, BUT IT'S TOUGHER FOR THE BORROWER. SO THERE'S ALWAYS SOME IMPACT IN WHAT WE DO. BUT THAT'S INEVITABLE. THAT'S NOT OUR PRIME PURPOSE. WE HAVE TO RUN THOSE INSTRUMENTS, ADDRESSING OUR OBJECTIVES. WE TALK TO THE GOVERNMENT, AND WE CONSULT WITH THE GOVERNMENT ON EVERYTHING WE DO. WE HAVE OPERATIONAL INDEPENDENCE WITH MONETARY POLICY, BUT, CERTAINLY, THOSE FINANCIAL POLICIES IN MACRO-PRU, THERE'S A LOT OF CONSULTATION WITH GOVERNMENT, AND THEY WILL GIVE THEIR INPUT, WHICH WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THOSE DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS. DO YOU FEEL AS THOUGH YOU ARE GETTING THAT INDEPENDENCE THAT YOU NEED FROM THE GOVERNMENT? THERE HAVE BEEN CLEARLY TENSE PERIODS OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH THE LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIOS AND THE IMPLEMENTATION ON THEM, BECAUSE SOME WOULD ARGUE THAT IS ENCROACHING ON AREAS WHERE AN ELECTED OFFICIAL SHOULD BE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. YOU HAVE ASKED FOR DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIOS, WHICH GO A LOT FURTHER AND ARE A LOT TOUGHER. I GUESS SOME OF THE SIGNALS COMING FROM GRANT ROBERTSON AND STEVEN JOYCE ARE THEY'RE NOT THAT THRILLED ABOUT THOSE IDEAS. WELL, WE RECOGNISE THAT THOSE INSTRUMENTS, WHILE THE PRIME PURPOSE IS FINANCIAL STABILITY, DO HAVE THESE OTHER EFFECTS. AND THAT'S WHY WE DON'T HAVE PURE OPERATIONAL INDEPENDENCE ON THOSE INSTRUMENTS, LIKE WE DO WITH INTEREST RATES, FOR EXAMPLE. SO WHEN WE BROUGHT IN THE LVRS IN 2013, WE WERE CONSULTING VERY CAREFULLY WITH THE GOVERNMENT, AND IF THE GOVERNMENT HAD SAID, 'DON'T DO IT,' WE WOULDN'T HAVE INTRODUCED THOSE INSTRUMENTS. THAT WOULD'VE BEEN A PRETTY BIG MOVE FOR A GOVERNMENT TO MAKE ` TO STARE DOWN A RESERVE BANK ` THOUGH. WELL, THERE WAS A LOT OF DEBATE AT THE TIME, AND EACH OF THOSE MOVES WE DID IN 2013 AND 2015 AND THEN AGAIN LAST YEAR, THERE WAS A DISCUSSION WITH THE MINISTER OF FINANCE AND OTHER MINISTERS. AND SO THEY RECOGNISED THAT HOUSING WAS AN ISSUE AND THAT THERE WAS RISK BUILDING UP AND THAT THESE INSTRUMENTS WERE ACTUALLY APPROPRIATE. CORIN GOING BACK TO THE ISSUE AROUND THE OFFICIAL CASH RATE, THE MAIN HEADLINE, I GUESS, INSTRUMENT THAT PEOPLE REALLY KNOW, WHAT HAPPENS IF WE GET INTO ANOTHER BIG SHOCK, ANOTHER BIG GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS? WE DON'T SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF AMMUNITION UP OUR SLEEVE, AND IF YOU'RE SAYING THAT THESE GLOBAL FACTORS ARE HAVING A BIGGER AND BIGGER INFLUENCE ON NEW ZEALAND, WE SEEM TO BE LOSING CONTROL. WELL, THE NATURE OF CONTROL CHANGES, AND NEW INSTRUMENTS ARE INTRODUCED WHEN CONDITIONS CHANGE. WHAT WOULD SOME OF THOSE NEW INSTRUMENTS`? BUT YOU'RE RIGHT; THERE'S LESS HEADROOM. OFFICIAL CASH RATE'S AT 1.75%, AND, OF COURSE, RATES IN MOST OTHER COUNTRIES ARE LOWER THAN THAT ` IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES. AND THAT'S WHY THEY'RE GETTING A BIT NERVOUS, BECAUSE IF THEY HAVE ANOTHER BIG RECESSION, THEN, YEAH, THERE'S LIMITED SCOPE TO EASE POLICY. SO WHAT DOES NEW ZEALAND DO IF THERE WAS A BIG DROUGHT? WELL, WE'RE A SMALL, OPEN ECONOMY, WE'RE SUBJECT TO THE WEATHER, AND WE HAVE TO WEAR THOSE SHOCKS. THINGS LIKE MONETARY POLICY CAN SOFTEN THE IMPACT A LITTLE BIT, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE FARMERS AND OTHER BUSINESSES HAVE TO TOUGH IT OUT THROUGH THOSE SORTS OF SHOCKS. SOME COMMENTATORS ` BERNARD HICKEY WAS ONE ` SEEMED TO INFER THAT YOUR SPEECH WAS SUGGESTING THAT MAYBE YOU EVEN START TO LOOK AT NEW MECHANISMS THAT ARE, SAY, USED IN SINGAPORE ` WHICH, INTERESTINGLY, WAS SUGGESTED BY WINSTON PETERS HEREBY YOU USE THE CURRENCY, THE DOLLAR, TO SET YOUR LOCAL INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES. IS THAT ACTUALLY REALISTIC? WELL, WHAT I WAS SAYING IS THAT INCREASINGLY, A LOT OF INDUSTRIES IN NEW ZEALAND THAT WERE SHELTERED AND HAD SOME DEGREE OF MONOPOLY POWER ARE INCREASINGLY OPEN, WHERE PRICES AND WAGES HAVE DRIVEN, BASICALLY, WHAT'S HAPPENING IN GLOBAL MARKETS RATHER THAN DOMESTIC CONDITIONS. SO THE MORE OPEN THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY` AND WE'RE THINKING THINGS LIKE UBER AND WHATEVER ELSE? YEAH. YEAH, ALL OF THOSE ONLINE ACTIVITIES AND OTHER THINGS. AND JUST THE INCREASED MOBILITY OF LABOUR CAN MAKE SOME OF OUR INDUSTRIES, SUCH AS EDUCATION, FOR EXAMPLE, OR HEALTH, IN BECOMING MORE PART OF A GLOBAL INDUSTRY RATHER THAN JUST A LOCAL, PROTECTED INDUSTRY. THE MORE THAT HAPPENS, THEN THE MORE THAT WE BECOME PRICE-TAKER ` WE JUST TAKE IT; PRICES AND THESE THINGS ARE SET IN THE REST OF THE WORLD. AND WHAT I'M SAYING ` IN THAT SITUATION, THE EXCHANGE RATE BECOMES A RELEVANT INSTRUMENT OR INDICATOR FOR MONETARY POLICY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFLATION, WHICH, AS YOU SAY, IS ESSENTIALLY THE SINGAPOREAN MODEL. BUT THAT'S AN EXTREME CASE, BUT IF THINGS ARE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION, THEN THE EXCHANGE RATE BECOMES MORE RELEVANT. SO THAT'S A PROBLEM OR AN ISSUE FOR FUTURE GOVERNORS, PERHAPS, TO START SERIOUSLY THINKING ABOUT? POTENTIALLY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. BUT I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE THERE ANY TIME SOON. YOU HAVE STARTED A LITTLE BIT OF WORK ON THE LIKES OF BITCOIN AND THE NEW WAVE OF ONLINE CURRENCIES. HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT? WE HARD THIS WEEK, OF COURSE, THAT BITCOIN'S VALUED AT THE SAME AS THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY NOW ` $270-ODD BILLION. SOME PEOPLE THINK IT'S A BUBBLE; SOME PEOPLE THINK IT'S THE FUTURE. WHAT DO YOU THINK? IT LOOKS REMARKABLY LIKE A BUBBLE FORMING TO ME. WE'VE SEEN THEM IN THE PAST. OVER THE CENTURIES, WE'VE SEEN BUBBLES, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A CLASSIC CASE. BUT HOW FAR UP`? WITH A BUBBLE, YOU NEVER KNOW HOW FAR IT'S GOING TO GO BEFORE IT COMES DOWN. A BUBBLE, PERHAPS, BUT IS THERE ACTUALLY`ARE WE LOOKING AT A, SORT OF, DOTCOM BUBBLE, WHERE THE FIRST ROUND WAS THE BUBBLE BUT THE SECOND TIME WAS THE ACTUAL, SORT OF, GAINS THAT PEOPLE FORESAW? IS IT THE FUTURE? YEAH, I THINK THE DIGITAL CURRENCIES, CRYPTOCURRENCIES, ARE A REAL, SERIOUS PROPOSITION FOR THE FUTURE, AND I THINK THEY ARE PART OF THE FUTURE, BUT NOT THE SORT THAT WE SEE IN BITCOIN. BITCOIN IS, TO ME, VERY MUCH LIKE GOLD. IT'S MINED; IT HAS A FIXED QUANTITY; AND THE PRICE IS VERY VOLATILE. I THIN A CRYPTOCURRENCY THAT HAS A MORE STABLE VALUE WILL BE THE SORT OF CRYPTOCURRENCY THAT'S MORE USEFUL FOR THE FUTURE. TO BE A USEFUL CURRENCY, IT HAS TO BE STABLE VALUE IN TERMS OF FACILITATING PAYMENTS AS OPPOSED TO JUST A SPECULATIVE INSTRUMENT, LIKE GOLD OR LIKE BITCOIN. GRANT SPENCER, WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE, BUT THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME. THANK YOU. WHENA OWEN WRAPS UP THE YEAR AFTER THE BREAK. SOME OF THE BEST BITS OF Q+A 2017: NO MORE SITTING ON THE COUCH. ...SITTING ON THE COUCH. THERE'LL BE NO MORE SITTING ON THE COUCH. WE SEE A PM WITH A PERSONALITY OF A ROCK. WE'VE GOT THE JACINDA EFFECT. I'M NOT SURE WHAT THE JACINDA EFFECT IS. MY JOB WAS TO TAKE CARE OF HER. THE YEAR STARTED WITH A NATIONAL LEADER STILL SETTLING IN TO HIS NEW JOB AND A LABOUR LEADER STRUGGLING TO MAKE AN IMPACT IN HIS. WHO KNEW THOSE TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION WOULD BE SO DRAMATIC. THE GREEN PARTY'S RISE AND FALL, A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP AT LABOUR AND UNITED FUTURE, AN ELECTION THAT SEEMED ALMOST PREDICTABLE SUDDENLY GOT VERY INTERESTING INDEED. WE HAD HORT NEW ZEALAND SAYING $18 CABBAGES. THAT EQUATES TO A MILLION LITRES PER CABBAGE ` THE THIRSTIEST CABBAGE ON THE PLANET. (COLDPLAY'S 'PARADISE') NEW ZEALAND IS NOT FOR SALE. IT IS THE MOST SENSATIONAL COUNTRY ON THE PLANET. I THINK YOU'D BETTER HOLD ON TO YOUR LAND. I LOOK AT THE LANDSCAPE; I DON'T LOOK AT THE OWNERSHIP. THE LAND IS NOT GONNA GO ANYWHERE. WINSTON IS GOING AFTER THE VOTE. HE'S DOING THE DIVIDE AND CONQUER. THIS IS A TYPE OF POLITICS` IS IT IWI-KIWI RACISM? 'COURSE IT IS. 'COURSE IT IS. SO, WHY HAVE YOU COME ALONG TODAY? I JUST WANTED TO SEE THE MAN HIMSELF. (CHUCKLES) WINSTON PETERS. THE POLLS SHOW ONE PARTY GOING THAT WAY... EVERY DAY. (ELECTRONIC MUSIC) WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE CURRENT POLITICIANS WE'VE GOT AT THE MOMENT? DON'T REALLY CARE FOR THEM, TO BE HONEST. LIKE, THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH SWAG. AND YOU'RE JUST OUT THERE TO SCARE VOTERS. ARE YOU NOT PROUD OF YOUR RECORD? I ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE. WHO WOULD YOU RATE AS YOUR TOP FIVE NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTERS? THEY'D BE FRASER, SEDDON, MASSEY, CLARK, LANGE, KEY. I'VE PUT SIX IN. (LAUGHS) (ELECTRONIC MUSIC) WHEN PEOPLE ASK ME THAT AND I SAY, 'OH, WELL, I'M FROM BIRKENHEAD...' AND THEY'RE LIKE, 'NO, BUT WHERE ARE YOU FROM?' 'PAPATOE.' (LAUGHS) LET ME TELL YOU THIS. WE LOOK OVER AT THE OTHER SIDE THERE, AND WE SEE A PRIME MINISTER WITH THE PERSONALITY OF A ROCK. WE'VE GOT THE JACINDA EFFECT. THAT'S A BIT HARSH. I'M NOT SURE WHAT THE JACINDA EFFECT IS. LABOUR HAVE ALREADY HAD TO ADMIT THAT THEY DON'T HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THIS WILL COST,... BUT NUMBERS-WISE. ...THEY DON'T HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE LAND IS. A POINT OF CONTRAST` AMY, THAT'S SIMPLY NOT TRUE. THEN WE'VE GOT PAULA BENNETT, WHO'S MASTERED THE LYN OF TAWA EFFECT. LABOUR ARE PULLING NUMBERS OUT OF THIN AIR THAT ARE NOT COSTED, HAVE NO LAND, AND EVEN THEIR FINANCE SPOKESPERSON` SO WHAT ARE YOUR NUMBERS? THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT IT WILL COST. THAT IS INCORRECT, AMY. HEY, MATE. SHANE. I'M SHANE. HI. I'M FOLLOWING HIS INSTRUCTIONS ` WINSTON. 'SHANE, DON'T SIT ON YOUR NONO; GO AND MEET THE PEOPLE.' SWEET. THIS IS OUR RECYCLING LINEUP. GREEN BOTTLES, CLEAR BOTTLES, PLASTICS. (LAID-BACK ELECTRONIC MUSIC) PAPER, ALUMINIUM, CROCKERY. IT'S... I HAD A TINY LITTLE BABY. VOICE BREAKS: MY JOB WAS TO TAKE CARE OF HER 100%. SHE HAD NOBODY ELSE TO` YOU KNOW, I WAS... SHE HAD ME TO RELY ON, AND THAT WAS MY JOB. YOU WOULD DO IT AGAIN? THEY WERE THE CHOICES I HAD. DO YOU THINK PETER DUNNE WILL BE RETURNED? YES, I DO. TIME FOR A CHANGE. IT WAS TIME FOR A CHANGE LAST TIME. 'BECAUSE IT'S TIME FOR A CHANGE' IS REALLY A SILLY ARGUMENT. 48% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS PICKED LABOUR CANDIDATE GREG O'CONNOR. 34% CHOSE PETER DUNNE. CROWD CHANTS: JACINDA! JACINDA! JACINDA! WERE YOU SHOCKED BY THE RESULTS LAST NIGHT? DID YOU HAVE AN INKLING EARLY ON? NO, I DIDN'T. I ACTUALLY THOUGHT WE WERE THERE. NO. I MEAN, LAST NIGHT, I WAS SAYING THAT WE COULD DO IT; IT IS POSSIBLE; WE CAN FORM A GOVERNMENT. WE'RE NOT HAVING COALITION NEGOTIATIONS ON Q+A. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE'VE HAD A PROPER COALITION IS KNOWN FOR NOT PLAYING TOO NICE. HOW DO YOU MANAGE THIS? VERY INTERESTING THAT JACINDA ARDERN REFERS TO HIM AS MR PETERS. (UPBEAT ELECTRONIC MUSIC) BUT LOOK AT WHAT THE HOUSE IS BUILT ON. THIS IS THE VERY BEST SOIL FOR GROWING OUR FOOD. FOOD SECURITY SHOULD BE AT THE FOREMOST OF EVERYBODY'S MINDS. OUR POLICY IS TO GET RID OF THE URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY. YOU CAN'T JUST SMASH DOWN THE RURAL-URBAN BOUNDARY WITHOUT HAVING A FOOD POLICY PLAN IN PLACE. GOLRIZ, YOUR BACKGROUND, OBVIOUSLY, IS A HUMAN RIGHTS LAWYER. IT'S A HELL OF A CHANGE FOR SOMEBODY SO YOUNG TO HAVE GONE FROM THAT TO GO TO THIS, ISN'T IT? I DON'T KNOW THAT IT IS. I SEE IT AS A CONTINUATION OF THE WORK THAT I DO. THERE'LL BE NO MORE SITTING ON THE COUCH. ...SITTING ON THE COUCH. THERE'LL BE NO MORE SITTING ON THE COUCH. (UPBEAT MUSIC) THIS IS THE INNER SANCTUM. SO, WHAT'S JACINDA LIKE TO DRAW, TOM? I'M STILL LEARNING. I'M STILL BREAKING DOWN THE DNA OF HER FACE. REGARDLESS OF MY AGE OR GENERATION, I HOPE TO SPEAK ON BEHALF OF NEW ZEALAND AND ITS VIEW AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER. Jess joins us on our panel. An embarrassment of riches into B-17. A pivotal moment or person for you? I think the lack of a Maori Party on election night. If they had gotten on with two seats, that would have been a game changer. Just see what a dominant part of their played and all the colour they brought. Materia was the big moment as well, with the coming of the show. You could see it was inevitable she would have to go A couple of turning points for us. Thomas? I think it metiria James Shaw worked incredibly hard over the campaign manager scrape their own governments. I think if materia had been more upfront. If she had said 'I did something that wasn't right. It was wrong. It was fraud, but this is why I did it.' She didn't quite say that's. I think in addition to being a future minister, to say you have broken the rules, it isnt a workable. Here is a different scenario with Winston Peters and Super. digging and found more things. She framed in a way that she presented herself as a victim rather than somebody who could tell a story that was really problematic and have a debate about welfare dependency and solo mums without justifying benefit fraud. Winston Peters hates the title kingmaker. Was that a masterclass? I think it was. That is what Winston is struggling with now. They got lucky. They ran a fantastic campaign, where she came out and gave a stellar performance, didn't put a foot wrong and managed media in a way that was respectful. But you are right ` they depended on Winston going with them. He could have gone the other way. Winston was the queen maker. It's interesting with Winston that you see in opposition he is veryconfrontational. Foreign affairs love him as a minister. You read briefs. He does work, very committed. Here's what everyone is saying ` wherever Winston went, there will be trouble. No. I think Winston is the Queenmaker but he will be a downfall of this government. He wants to be in government. You want to get stuff done. In 2018, you will see two things coming through ` a very New Zealand First theme ` regional developments ` that will be quite transformational. Jess, you are at the coalface. Life after Winston Peters ` as a Shane Jones/ Yes, I think so. I think there will be something that he can't stand up and say 'I can't follow this. I think it'll be a split between nationalism versus what labour wants, which is nationbuilding. They want to build infrastructure, reach out to the world. Parker wants to make trade popular again. YOUR FEEDBACK NOW. YOU WERE HOT ON THE POLL RESULTS AND ON TWITTER. THIS JUST SHOWS NEW ZEALANDERS WERE TOTALLY COMFORTABLE WITH HOW THEY VOTED AND THE OUTCOME IN GOVERNMENT. WITH THE 50/50 CELL PHONE AND LANDLINE METHOD OF POLLING, MARTYN TWEETED ` 'THIS IS THE BEST EVER POLLING LANDSCAPE FOR THE LEFT, YET ALL THEY'VE DONE IS STAY STATIC.' CRAIG'S ASSESSMENT OF THE POLLS ` 'THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE WINSTON FIRST PARTY.' GRAHAM TEXT IN ` 'DUMP POLLS. THEY DISHEARTEN PEOPLE ON THE FRINGE OF VOTING.' AND FINALLY, BRENT TWEETED ` 'TUNING IN FOR THE LAST Q+A, AND BEING REMINDED WHAT A 'ROLLER-COASTER ELECTION CYCLE IT WAS.' YOU SAID IT, BRENT! Let's look ahead to the year that's coming up. This 100 days about to start. What can we expect from the government's? They had come back firing and should have a smooth operation. There's a bit of challenge for them. There is a growing disconnect between expectation and reality. You have the PM and the finance minister saying they don't have much money. I heard a speech on Friday where Jacinda said upping big ticket spending in the mini budget and don't expect much next year. Expectations? The got a bit of work to do from the New Year. I think specifically on housing, education, health and child poverty, which is a priority. I think porirua is something to focus on. Housing. We worked out about a house an hour.. no one is expecting them to do much of the first two months, but they have to get started. They have told a very big game. We have to see some action on this. He has certainly took that up. Of course there will be things they can't do. What wall be the things the public will take this government to to task to? They have made child poverty number one thing. You think New Zealand was going to hell in a handbasket with the housing shortfall. But you only get away for a little while with saying 'we inherited a mess.' I think child poverty is a big one, regions, and the other one is Paker is labours high priest and MR Fixit. That is selling the benefits of trade for many, not the few. They have a big task ahead of them. you see the polls settling as people are waiting to see. They need to see some benefits in the New Year. This has been the course for Jacinda. I think a one level it's courageous, it's brave, huge and important issue, but if he doesn't achieve and get some significant outcomes there, there will be some hard questions asked of her. Under the last governments, there were lots that's on child poverty. Interesting to see how Labour will deliver. And other issued bubbles away next year is international North Korea, Trump. Watergate took two years to roll out. The fact that he hasn't been impeached yet or resigned ` we don't know what has happened yet is. Suddenly New Zealand has to make a choice whether a goes in coalition with an American led coalition or a European lead coalition. There is a real hotspot. Climate change, independent referendums. Speaking of relations, on a domestic front, Greens, New Zealand First and labour - that's going to be a mission to keep together. I think was the Peters is very much head in the foreign affairs portfolio. He has been a good minister before, and he will do that. When he comes up for air, that's when you will see that in the balance you have him building a big part, the relationship with him and Jacinda, and the Green Party all swilling together. It's a very interesting and our usual cocktail. Not much discretionary funding. Not much in the next three is to throw it something that might quell the discontents. I also think when you are talking before about national looking for friends, we are going to have to see some kind of other party come into play with this. It'll be interesting to see more green blue party playouts, whether someone who tries to fill the hole left by you to future. National has have friends or create that old friends. It'll be interesting to see where the gaps are. Mike, the Labour Party gone. Has labour taken all the oxygen away from them or could we see another Maori party? I think you could see another Maori Party. They need to be talking about things Maori. AND THAT'S US FOR TODAY AND THE YEAR. REMEMBER Q+A REPEATS TONIGHT AT 11.35PM. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. WE ARE THRILLED TO CONFIRM THAT NEW ZEALAND ON AIR HAS FUNDED US FOR ANOTHER 40 EPISODES NEXT YEAR. SO WE'LL BE BACK AGAIN IN MARCH. WE LOVE WHAT WE DO, AND WE LOVE THAT YOU KEEP WATCHING US EVERY SUNDAY MORNING AT 9. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US. CAPTIONS BY CHELSEA BRADY AND JUNE YEOW. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2017