Today on Newshub Nation ` Minister Shane Jones on cash, conflicts and the battle in Northland. Matthew Hooton and Neale Jones set the scene with their election year predictions. And Backstory ` MP Nicky Kaye talks work, home and heartbreak. Kia ora, good morning. I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to our first Newshub Nation of election year 2020. In this week's political news, Transparency International has warned our party finance rules are vulnerable to corruption. This follows investigations by the Serious Fraud Office into donations to the National Party and New Zealand First. The electoral finances of two Mayors are now also with the SFO. Jacinda Ardern met with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama this week. Climate change was top of the agenda in Fiji, while in Australia, Ardern pushed hard for Morrison to stop deporting Australian-raised criminals to New Zealand. But we have a simple request ` send back Kiwis. Genuine Kiwis. Do not deport your people and your problems. Ihumatao has been granted the highest possible heritage rating by Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga, increasing pressure on local and central government to stop the land being developed by it's owners, Fletcher Building. The decision deems Ihumatao to be of the same cultural significance as the Treaty Grounds at Waitangi. Well, he's Minister with a lot of money. NOt only does he oversea the $3 billion dollar provincial growth fund, Shane Jones is in charge of even more billions in infrastructure spend. He's also the target of a Greenpeace campaign to remove him from government decisions on commercial fisheries, alleging he is too close to the industry. Minister Shane Jones joins me now. Morena. Thank you for your time, Minister. So, Greenpeace wants you and your party excluded from any fisheries decisions and for any decisions involving fisheries company Talley's to be reviewed. What do you say to that? Look, I've always had an open book in terms of fisheries. I believe that New Zealand industries such as fisheries need a champion. I've had a professional background in the industry, and I just think that Russell and Greenpeace ` they're enthralled to this conspiracy thinking that somehow, I've fallen under the influence of Goldfinger in the fishing industry. So, Talley's, the company, gave you ten grand in Election 2017. What did they get for that? See, that's not how the system works. They are participating in the political process, and what really puzzles me is to` is what is really at stake here in these campaigns to demonise and stigmatise New Zealanders who are legitimately participating. Now, if they find in me a champion for industry, and the party and its policies, that's how democracy in New Zealand works. So, you can guarantee you'd not let Talley's or other commercial fishing companies influence your decision making about that when it comes to government policy? Uh, no, absolutely not. The ideas and policies which New Zealand First had when we came into the government, which is very strong on fisheries, very strong on aquaculture, they're out there for the public to vote on. Uh, yeah, some examples here to talk about. I mean, you commented on a court case involving a Talley's boat, your party has sort of opposed bottom trawling, the amount of cameras that actually ended up on boats shrank dramatically. Has your party and your position on those shrunk with those policies? No, these are ideas of contested- They're in a spirit of contestable ideas. In Taranaki, fisheries has been driven out by the mythical Maui dolphin. There is no Maui dolphin. They're just a Hector's dolphin. Right. So, you're saying it's not endangered? It shouldn't be looked after? Well, you can't blame exclusively the fishing industry for the demise of that subspecies of Hector's dolphin. Okay, but should- Are you exerting an influence which is beyond your remit? You are not the Fisheries Minister. That's absolutely true. I'm not the Fisheries Minister, but I am the Regional Development Minster, and when regional industries attract my attention and they want to ensure that the debates are balanced and they're not overtaken by these shrill voices not based on science, in terms of Greenpeace, then they should expect that my loud voice will be brought to bear. Look, according to reporting by Radio New Zealand and Stuff, Talley's also gave almost $27,000 to the New Zealand First Foundation. So, first of all, what do you know about that? Did you know about that money? Well, first thing I know is that the SFO have their process, so I don't want to run afoul of that. But in terms of the functioning of the foundation, I don't know anything about that. You don't know anything about that money? No, It was created before I came back into politics. For three years, I was a fisheries ambassador in the Pacific, and I'm told, during that period of time, the foundation was created. OK. So, just to be clear, because, you know, you were involved in fisheries, you were the chair of the Maori Fisheries Commission and throughout the Pacific, and Talley's have given to your election campaign ` that was declared ` but you don't know anything about the Talley's donations to the New Zealand First Foundation? No, I'm not across the detail of who and how various people, but I would say- ` You're not across the detail? So, that means you were aware, but you're not across the detail? No, no, no. To be honest with you, what has antagonised me is that these are God-fearing, patriotic New Zealanders. They have given money within the law. Sure, it's now in the clutches of the SFO, and I've had a gutsful of people putting out conspiracy theories that, somehow, they represent the Goldfinger of New Zealand democracy. It's wrong, and it's tripe. OK. The Cabinet manual says care should be taken to avoid creating a perception that representatives or lobbyists from any one organisation or group enjoy an unfair advantage. Are you taking that care? Yeah, I think I'm implementing the Cabinet manual in the same way that John Key did. (LAUGHS) But Jacinda Ardern has often said, or has said for you to go away and have a re-read of it every now and then. Yeah, and she's got every right as the Prime Minster to remind me that there's a perception that some of my statements or the stances I take- But I'm not going to part company with those proud New Zealanders who are participating in the political process, and I'm not going to shut up while they're stigmatised and demonised for operating within the law. Can I ask about the perception of the party, then? I mean, the revelations by Radio New Zealand and Stuff reporting that Rich-Listers are reportedly donating to the foundation, hence bankrolling the party ` what does that do to the perception or to the image of the party? It doesn't really say that you are 'a battler' or 'common sense' or 'centrist' or 'heartland.' Isn't that at odds with the image that you project? Well, I think the image of the party is that our roots are in the heartland, which- I'm a heartland politician, and a lot of the industries ` can I just use one that you've referred to, the fishing industry ` is as heartland industry. The racing industry is a heartland industry. Now, this notion that just because people are willing to contribute within the political process that they should be either crippled or face allegations that they're rupturing democracy ` I say to you that that's conspiracy thinking, and it's designed to drive New Zealand First out of politics, and it'll be unsuccessful. Okay, well, let's talk about that in a moment, but one of the founding principles of New Zealand First is transparency. Do you believe that the party's living up to that? Well, I don't want to talk about the SFO investigation for fear of running afoul of the law, but where I've been concerned, just go and read my donations, and I will not flinch from sticking up for mining, for fishing, for forestry or farming. The three Fs. In fact, I'm a three F politician. The Serious Fraud Office, you've mentioned, is investigating the New Zealand First Foundation. Do you believe that that is having an effect on the party's polling? Well, I'm not across whatever internal polling the leader's office might be doing, but look, the reality is when you have all this smudging driven by Radio New Zealand suffering a bout of distemper ordinarily associated with cats and dogs- Or just reporting on undisclosed donations to the party. Well, I mean, they're not being fair or balanced in my view, and I genuinely feel that Radio- Well, not all of Radio New Zealand. The gallery are quite sensible, and I accept that Stuff have also run these stories. Absolutely. But I think they're possessed by a conspiracy spirit, and it's writing out of the script what ordinary people think. Ordinary people aren't interested in what Guyon Espiner is warbling on about. OK. Well, let's talk about your polling. I mean, at the moment, according to which poll ` Newshub poll, Colmar Brunton poll, 3.6% - 3%. So, it's less than the 5% threshold. Surely, it's having an effect. Well, the reality is that our polls during the course of the government's life have never been all that flash, but we poll very good as we approach an election. We've always been under strict instructions from Winston Peters not to toss and turn about the polls, get out and do the job, and I think no one could doubt that the job that I do out in heartland New Zealand is gold medal status. What is going to happen to the New Zealand First Foundation? Well, look, that would be up to the trustees and the architects. I genuinely am not across those details. No doubt they're engrossed at the moment with legal advice in terms of working through with the SFO investigators. As a senior member of the party, what would you like to see happen to it? That's party business, and I'm certainly not going to in a fit of enthusiasm make announcements that I've got no mandate to do. I mean, should those kind of foundations exist? Do they have a role going on this election year in terms of raising money for parties? Well, yeah, but let's establish a fact here. They are established within the ambit of the law. Now, if you're asking me should the law change, well that's definitely an idea that's going to be contested, no doubt, in this election. But let's be very careful that a lot of these fears aren't driven by conspiracy, and in my view, a body of animus designed to destroy New Zealand First and drive Winston Peters out of politics. Well, let's talk about your potential` Well, you've thrown your hat in the ring for Northland, right? It's going through the process for approval by New Zealand First. Are you confident that you can win Northland when your leader lost it last election? Well, he did obviously win it in the by-election. But he lost it in the general election. In 2017 he went across the pall winds of the country, and that gave us 7.5% of the vote. Look, you've got to be confident whenever you stand for election. I'm not underestimating the difficulties. Wellsford has been taken out of the seat of Northland. Mangawhai, Dargaville, Kaikohe, Kaitaia, Kerikeri ` they're the big centres of population. And I'm not taking anything for granted, but there'll be a genuine option when I finally emerge from the end of our constitutional process. So you're confident that you get the nod? Well, let's just, uh` I'll abide by the process. OK. How serious a threat is it that National has refused to work with New Zealand First post-election? Is that going to ruin your chance of an election? Well, it just depends whether or not Simon Bridges is outed in this upcoming court-case. If it comes to pass` What are you saying, that Simon Bridges is in charge in this court case? Well, it depends what the nature of the evidence is that's going to be put before the court. I mean, everyone at the moment is piling in on Jami-Lee Ross, but if Jami-Lee Ross and these donors can show that the leader of the National Party is absolutely across the detail, then he won't be the leader of the National Party. So, you're willing to comment on National's SFO court case, but not the SFO investigation into New Zealand First. No, I'm commenting on media reports and Jami-Lee's own statements. All right. Do you believe that this whole donations law should be reviewed? Well, without a doubt the Prime Minister has put her finger on the pulse in the sense that increasingly more commentators... I do find a lot of these liberal, left-wing commentators out of universities, they don't understand how politics really works. And they bring a fresh bout of conspiracy thinking, and they forget that these are Kiwis that are participated in giving donations legally, within the ambit of the law, and that's the type of political engagement that they're comfortable with. Let's move on to the comments you made at the infrastructure conference yesterday. You said that you wanted a maximum population policy to reporters afterwards. What does that mean? What is a maximum population policy? Well, I think one of the problems in New Zealand with infrastructure is our population has grown well beyond originally what the architects thought was the case. Now, population policy has long since been surrendered to the employers of New Zealand, and in my view, employers are only interested in net profit after tax. They're not interested in nationhood. So that's what a population policy will do, is put the employers where they belong. So` So what is an ideal population policy? Yeah. Well, what is the maximum? But these are exactly the ideas that Kiwis should debate and Kiwis should rely on New Zealand First, my colleague Tracey Martin, to take forward. I, personally, am astounded at how quickly the last million people have arrived in New Zealand. OK. So, is this a way for you in election year just to go back to one of the never-ending issues that gets New Zealand First re-elected, immigration? Well, immigration is unfettered. Immigration has got out of control in Auckland, and it's put enormous stress on our social and our economic infrastructure, and you can't walk away from that. Unfortunately, immigration has for too long been surrendered to employers, and they do not have the best interests of our nationhood at heart. Their interests are in making a profit every year. So, you're not going to say that we should restrict population growth to a certain percentage at the moment? Well, we've got a host of ideas. We want to see population growth speak to the interests of New Zealand's regional areas, not only our urban areas. But I say to you, what sort of country do you want? We were originally settled through the Treaty of Waitangi, the indigenous people coming with their Pacific roots, the Maori people, then the Anglos came, and in my case, the Croatians came. If you want another million, two million, three million people, then we should debate it and there should be a mandate, rather than opening up the options unfettered, and everyone comes here from New Delhi. I don't like that idea at all. You don't like the people coming from New Delhi? Oh no, I think that the number of students that have come from India have ruined many of those institutions. I think it's a backdoor to citizenship, and I think it's a good debate to have, what blend of policy do you want for your population? What size, what skill-base, how many untrained people, how many investors. In election year, people will label this dog-whistle politics. Um, well, there's an appetite out there to talk about a population policy. Now, look, I accept that the National Party won't, because they're funded by certain very rich overseas donors, and I accept that Labour won't because it offends there sense of political correctness. But I'm from New Zealand First and our heartbeat is in the provinces. OK, I've got one more question for you before you go ` coronavirus is obviously having an impact economically around the world, not only in New Zealand. Logging has come to almost a standstill in terms of the exports. What is the impact having on those jobs, and what is happening in terms of the workers that get laid off? Well, I'm told that Phil Twyford is going to Gisborne, I presume to make some announcements, because the package is being driven by MBIE, and he's the MBIE Minister. Look, what I've focused on is encouraging the social welfare to be very liberal in the interpretation. I don't want to see any Kiwi without income for 30 days. I think that there's a case for further interventions. The ideas are with cabinet, the Prime Minister and my leader will be working through. But it's not just forestry, unfortunately, there's a lot of other areas. So forestry shouldn't be getting the benefit alone, you know, tourism workers should be subject to no 30-day stand-down if they lose their jobs because of coronavirus? Oh no, I've been very clear with my colleagues. I think we need to be very robust and have the social welfare department exercise great liberal interpretations so we don't have Kiwis in Strugglers Gully. We're trying to get kids out of poverty, we can't have their parents living in unnecessarily straightened circumstances in the provinces where a lot of the ideas that come out of Wellington won't necessarily work. Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones, thank you very much for your time this morning. All right, if you've got something to say about what you see on our show, please let us know, we're on twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Newshub Nation NZ using the hashtag #NationNZ. Or, you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. But still to come Matthew Hooton and Neale Jones on the unknown quantity that is election 2020, plus MP Nicky Kaye on love and surviving cancer. Welcome back. Election 2020 is soon to be the only show in town. But what party strategies are about to be unleashed upon us? Who could win? What are the variables? Political commentators Matthew Hooton and Neale Jones join me now with their best predictions. Matthew and Neale, thank you for very much. So, the big question, gentlemen, who is going to win and why? Neale Jones first. Well, every MMP election is close and I think you're a fool if you make a prediction. But, I think odds on that Labour is probably the one to lose this election. And why is that? Oh, to lose this election? Well, sorry, it's theirs to lose, so I think odds are on them. And there's three reasons, I think. The first one's leadership. I think Jacinda Ardern's popularity against Simon Bridges who is deeply unpopular. I think even a few National voters will flinch at the idea of Prime Minister Simon Bridges. The second one, I think, is partners. I think Labour has an easier path to victory with more options, whereas National really only has ACT. They need to knock out New Zealand First and/or the Greens to have a chance. And the third one, I think, is most New Zealanders think the economy's doing well and the country's in the right direction. You know, the economy's strong, wages are rising, unemployment's low. And when those fundamentals are right, governments don't tend to get turfed out. All right. Matthew Hooton, would you agree with that? I'd agree with that. You'd agree with that? It is incredibly close. It's really between two coalitions ` National-Act and Labour and the Greens ` and they are absolutely too close to call. And then New Zealand First ` unless New Zealand First delivers in a big way to its constituency in Northland and also around the country on things like guns ` it's out. So it could go to the wire. We may be in an election where we have to wait for overseas votes. Historically, the Greens have done well in them. But I think Jacinda Ardern's popularity globally will mean that Labour will do better than usual in overseas votes. Well, that's a good point, isn't it, though? Because there's such a diaspora ` I hope I'm saying that the right way ` of Kiwis in London and in Australia that Jacinda Ardern in Australia just yesterday delivering something strong. Is that going to make the difference? Well, they're less aware of just how deeply incompetent the government has turned out to be. You know, I think New Zealanders have wanted change for a long time. We had too much change under Muldoon and Lange and Bolger. And then we had two governments with Clark and Key where there was stability. And New Zealanders wanted change. And Jacinda Ardern picked up on that with 'Let's Do This' and 'transformational'. Unfortunately, she's failed on every single one of her own measures, except, perhaps, state housing. OK. Well, Neale, has this government really failed on policy delivery? Well, I think the main issue they have is their message. I think that there have been a couple of high-profile failures ` KiwiBuild, the delay in light rail are an example. But actually if you look at the government's record, there is a lot they've done. You know? You look at the Families Package, you look at cheaper doctors' visits, the billions in health and education` Poverty's up. Poverty's down 20,000. Poverty is up. Material hardship amongst children is up. Anyway,... Those measures ` there's a lot of difference in those measures. It depends which measures you` Yeah, but carbon emissions are up, not down. If I could just finish what I was saying. I think that the challenge Labour has is to actually tell the story of what they have done, because they've let that narrative get away on them and there's now a common wisdom they haven't delivered. So they've got to get out there and really sell that story of what they've delivered. I think that's wrong. What they should really do is just focus on leadership. I think they should do what Labour did in 2002: just run ads that are entirely about the Prime Minister ` no content whatsoever and just make it 'Who do you want to be Prime Minister ` Bridges or Ardern?' And I think Ardern will win that. And you agree with that. I agree entirely. I think for Labour, they want to make a presidential campaign. As I say, Jacinda Ardern versus the most unpopular leader in New Zealand's modern political history in Simon Bridges ` it's easy. However, the thing is, they do need to cover off that delivery question, because that will dog them if they don't. OK, that's where National is obviously going to target, isn't it? But let's just talk about New Zealand First. You mentioned them before. Neale, do you see New Zealand First getting back in? I think that's the big question of this election and I wouldn't care to make a prediction. On the current polling, they're not. But I'd be a fool to write off Winston Peters. I think they have a good story to tell, particularly in regional New Zealand around the amount of money they've put in. But they've got to address this issue of donations and I think they've got to deal with it like any other political party would. Does the donation issue, Matthew, really play any part in the New Zealand First voters' psyche or do they just think that's big city media beating up on the poor guys? I don't think that what we've learnt about the New Zealand First Party and the New Zealand First Foundation and the way it operates is new information to anybody who follows politics closely. I think that dodginess is already built in to the New Zealand First brand. And the people who support it aren't going to be concerned about these latest things. Sorry, can I say that the issue is New Zealand First currently poll around 4%. They actually need to pick up some National voters, so they need to appeal beyond their current base to get back in. My concern for them is if they spend the next 7-8 months being dogged by donation scandals, it's very hard to actually sell your message to the people you need to reach. Or it could be just that Shane Jones wins Northland and brings some people in with him. Yeah. I think he's got a decent shot at that. Well, that's an issue I'm both passionate about ` as the Ports of Auckland issue ` and working on professionally. And I think that is the big issue. I think if New Zealand First does convince and win the argument against Phil Twyford and convinces Labour to support the development of Northport and the roads and the rail and the dry dock and all these things that the people of Northland are wanting and I'm working on, I should say, it's got 5% written all over it and Northland, because Matt King from National is very unpopular. OK. Has Simon Bridges made a mistake by ruling out New Zealand First as a coalition partner? No, I don't think he had any alternative. He would've looked ridiculous after the harsh rhetoric that National has used. He had to make that move. All right. Neale Jones, the Greens, could they get a high enough percentage on their own to be king- or queen-maker and rule out the relevancy of New Zealand First in the coalition? Well, I mean, Labour would like to be in a situation where they can go with the Greens or New Zealand First and have both, rather than be reliant on both. However, I think with the Greens, their real challenge is to make the argument to go stronger and faster in government. There have been some issues around poverty and the environment where they would've liked Labour to have done more. And I think they can go out there and actually appeal to some of those left-Labour voters and say, 'Vote for the Greens'. And for Labour, a Green Party on 8 or 9%, even if it takes some Labour voters, is better than a Green Party hovering around five and risking going out. And could Labour stomach another term with New Zealand First as a coalition partner? I think they'd like to have the option. I think if they could go with the Greens or New Zealand First and tack left or right as it suited them that would be ideal for them. I don't think they want to be again be in a situation where they need both the Greens and New Zealand First, because that's a recipe for stasis. OK. Let's talk David Seymour and ACT. He had an improvement in the polls at the end of last year ` quite a strong showing as a politician last year. Will he have friends in parliament in 2020? I think so. He's polling between 2 and 3%, depending on which pollster you ask. Yeah, which pollster are you asking? He's either 1.8% in Colmar Brunton... And there's UMR polling that has him always in that 2 to 3 range. So he should come in with two, three maybe even on a good day even four MPs and that makes ACT a serious party again, because one-MP parties are not serious parties. And this is why this is an important point, because it is really between National and ACT, given that ACT is two or three MPs, and Labour-Green. OK. The other thing I wanted to cover off is there seemed to be a groundswell of Maori politics after criticism of Oranga Tamariki and the Ihumatao occupation. Are we going to see that translate into a big Maori Party showing or another kind of party this year? We hear this every election ` that Labour's going to lose the Maori vote; Maori seats; that it's all over. In every election for the last 10 years, Labour's picked up Maori seats. So I don't think they should take the Maori vote for granted. But, you know, last election Labour won on material issues with Maori. They won on jobs, health, education ` those bread and butter issues. And I think if Maori are feeling that they're getting wealthier, that they've got jobs, that they've got houses ` that works for Labour. I think a lot of those issues around Oranga Tamariki, Whanau Ora, Ihumatao ` they're important to a sector of Maori, and Labour needs to address them so that the Maori Party has nothing to run on. But I don't see them turning the Maori seats necessarily. Do you agree with that, Matthew? Yeah. We do predict every election that Labour will lose the Maori seats. And sometimes they do. I don't see this election as being one of those elections` OK, all right. Just quickly, Matthew, what's the inside word of internal strategies say for National, polling for National? Do you have anything in that, Matthew? Well, as I say, it's just absolutely too close to call. Labour has this asset in the Prime Minister's personality. National has the facts about the government's poor performance on their side. But I think the election is more likely just to be about St Jacinda than anything else substantial. St Jacinda. OK, so it's going to be factual and positive and St Jacinda is it, Neale? I think Labour will run a very positive campaign and you'll see Jacinda Ardern front and centre. I think you'll also see a lot of focus on infrastructure. There's that $8 billion that was announced earlier this year. There's another $4 billion to go. I think you'll see Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson up and down the country with schools being upgraded and roads and rail and all that. Lots of money being spent. And I think there'll be the usual things from Labour: health, education and the environment ` their bread and butter. Right. OK. Well, too close to call. Thank you very much for your time, Neale Jones and Matthew Hooton. Coming up ` a few surprises in Nikki Kaye's backstory. And a report from Mitch McCann on the extent of Northland's drought. Welcome back. Drought in Northland is crippling farms, businesses and local access to clean water. The big dry could cost the local economy hundreds of millions, with some farms on the brink of failure. When Mitch McCann visited this week, locals called for more action from local and central governments before Northland dries up completely. It's a bit like oxygen. You can live without it for a little while, but not very long, and that's water. The water's like your oxygen, and if we run out of water, we've got to completely de-stock. John Blackwell hasn't seen too many droughts like this one. It hasn't rained on his Kaipara sheep and beef farm for months, and the problem is he mightn't see any rain for months to come either. What really concerns me is the water levels have never been so low. Yeah. The creek down to my left has never been drier before, and it's just dried up last week. This map shows just how dry Northland is right now. The region is almost two months behind normal rainfall levels. On the farm, that means less feed for the animals, so stock is sold off, saturating the market and forcing prices down and costing farmers like John. So, lamb was about $9 a kilo in December, November. Now, I think it's hedging below $7. Bull got up to about $6.60, and it's down to $5.80. So, that's a huge hit we've taken financially. Blackwell helps run Federated Farmers in Kaipara. He knows the region and its farmers well. He has stored plenty of feed away for a rainy day or dry summer like this. But not everyone around here has that luxury. Federated Farmers estimates that farmers in this region have about five or six weeks of feed left for their stock. After that, things are gonna become extremely tough, and there's still no rain in sight. The conditions are threatening to have a bigger impact than just on animals. One of the things we're always frightened about is depression, and when you get a drought, it puts a huge emphasis on your credit or your debit, and banks, you know, can actually` Some farmers will probably have to sell up because of this. Down the road, Michael Roberts too is making cutbacks on his family's farm. He hasn't done the math yet, but like many, this farm will lose thousands of dollars. He's having to dry off cows, meaning they stop milking so they don't need as much food. We have dried off probably a third of our herd. 650 cows is our peak figure, and we're down to 400 now. So, that's a lot of milk out of the vat. It's not just traditional farmers sweltering under the heat. 95% of New Zealand's kumara supply comes from here. This year, production is estimated to be down 30% ` another cost well into the millions of dollars. Might be one little one going to form there, and maybe a little root there. So, normally, we'd expect probably five or six kumaras to see in there. This kumara crop is usually completely green at this time of the year. Our drone footage shows how patchy and dry it is right now. Doug Nilsson isn't very optimistic as to what he'll find when harvesting begins soon. Growers have been telling me it's the driest they've seen, and they've been growing longer than I've been growing` around 30 years, and some have been longer, and they said it's very significant. Yeah, it's probably one of the worst ones they've had. The government is offering some assistance to Northland. Agriculture Minister Damien O'Connor allocated $80,000 to the Northland Rural Support Trust. That's money set aside to provide events for rural families to make sure they don't become isolated, but it's not a handout to farmers, and it doesn't pay for shipping and any extra water. Kaipara's mayor says central government needs to be doing more. The $80,000 for the Rural Support Trust for all of Northland simply, right now, is inadequate in the situation we're in with the levels of distress the community has. Jason Smith told me that in the last two weeks, more than a million litres of water has been carried from outside the region to fill water tanks belonging to locals who don't take the town's supply. That's an extra cost in the hundreds of dollars for locals on top of their rates. He has a stark warning if there's still no rain in the next few months. The trees will be dying, the water pipes that currently connect the towns will be breaking open at joints as the cracks in our soil become wider. They'll literally be wrenching apart the water pipes. Further north, in Kaikohe, it's crunch time for water supply. Civil Defence has water tanks in the town centre in case it runs dry. In Kaitaia, the defence force was called in this week to take water out to isolated towns. It's feared water tanks used at marae and community facilities will soon be empty. In some situations, they have already run out, so we're going up to replenish them as much as we can. On the ground, there's a sense of helplessness from locals who say it should have never come to this. When we did have water, the council didn't do anything to repair leaks. We met this woman at a local laundromat because her tank supply at home is too low to do washing. Cos we've got no water at home ` not enough water anyway. Is it pretty concerning for locals at the moment? There seems to be people worried about it. Yes, we are. We need water. Everything's drying up, you know? Yeah. A week and a half ago, the government allocated $2 million to help source temporary water supplies to the towns. That will take time and long-term solutions. When allocating the funding, minister Shane Jones said the council has dropped the ball, criticising its lack of readiness for a disaster like this. It's a criticism the Far North mayor admits is fair. We have seen it coming, but we didn't understand that it would be as fierce as it is right now. John Carter says the council is planning long-term solutions, but at the minute, he's focused on what he calls the immediate crisis. It's getting close to running out, and in another 10 or so days, if we keep taking at the rate we are, we could run out of water in the stream. So, it's quite significant. Rivers and streams are drying up, farms are becoming dustbowls. Northland can't look to the skies for help, so it's asking those in charge to offer some relief before this region runs dry. Mitch McCann reporting there. Coming up, our panel dissects the news and politics of the week. Plus, MP Nikki Kaye on love and competing in the Coast to Coast post-surgery. Welcome back to Backstory. We're used to seeing MP Nikki Kaye in work mode. She's been a fixture in parliament for 12 years as MP for Auckland Central and, at times, a minister. But how well do we really know our MPs and the values and experiences they bring with them to parliament? Nikki Kaye hosted us at her house this week, where we asked about love, surviving cancer, and the impact of politics on her personal life. So, Charlie is one of the loves of my life. He is a beautiful wee boy. He was in an accident, so he had a full shave, but as you can see, his fur is growing back. And his sibling is Lily, who you will meet soon. When I am not working, which isn't often, they are amazing to come home to with unconditional love. I have flatmates ` my mate, who is also 40. We call it 'flatties at 40.' (CHUCKLES) Usually, we have a debrief ` sort of, a bit of a yarn about the week, and I usually have a cup of peppermint tea and some dark chocolate. Usually, a bit too much dark chocolate. And then, I like to sit out on the deck, in the garden. It's usually later in the evening, and then, I will cuddle Lily and Charlie. My brother and sister might have a view of the world that I was the baby. They would say that I got it easy, but I think I've always been quite determined. I've got a fair few certificates of being the most enthusiastic. I think I did stand up for people from quite a young age, which didn't mean I necessarily had heaps of friends. I had friends, obviously, but I was often, I think, fighting for something. I was naughty at school in that I was talking back to the teachers and all that stuff. I have ben open about the fact that when I was 14, I smoked marijuana. But then, I never have done any form of drugs since then. In part, you know, it's family stuff. I've seen the effect of drugs on people. My parents split up when I was quite young. It was very hard. So, Mum really worked multiple jobs to look after my siblings. I really had an amazing example of resilience and someone who worked really hard from a young age, and so, I think there was sort of a drive from that ` that, you know, the example that my mum gave me. But my stepfather, he really taught me to think about issues and have a view, and that was just the way that our family operated, but not political at all. I would call my parents` I've accidentally said 'swingers' before, but swinging voters. I've got a fair few ex-boyfriends, but I had, um,... I've had a two and a half year relationship at university. He was my first love, and then, I had a great love for five and a half years. I was 28. It was my dream, and it felt like the dream to be able to win the seat of Auckland Central, and then be able to serve. But then, it was also quite tough, because I was then, you know, breaking up from a long-term love. We had been doing long-distance because I had come back to stand. I said, 'Look, I'm going on a plane, and I need to go and do this,' and then, we had long distance, and then, he had taken a job back in New Zealand. But then, he was on the plane` (CHUCKLES) on the Thursday before the election, and he basically got off. And he was pretty shy, and that just wasn't the life that he wanted. But it was a very difficult... um, period. So, I think I feel very fortunate, I mean, even though I'm, like, world's longest single person. That's not true. There's lots of single people out there. But I, um, have obviously dated since I've been in parliament. I do feel that I've been very fortunate to have a couple of long-term relationships that have been amazing. But I do watch my friends' Bumbles and Tinders. So, I, um,... I am au fait with the dating apps, but no. I think it would be weird if I did. Look,... I hold out hope. I hold out hope. When I got sick, I, um,... one of the beauties of trauma is you become closer to people, in my view, and I'm definitely closer to my mum and my sister, and I spend more time with my family now. There's this contradiction in that you don't want to get older, but you also` you, um,... are grateful for being alive, so... I've really tried to build a home. So, I` which is a kind of a healing place, in a way. Maggie Barry actually helped me with my garden. I did not create this. My grandmother was a great gardener. She died a few years ago, and I never imagined that I would... sort of be able to be that person, but I find it really therapeutic. This is a life. It's a calling. It's public service, so you will always be available and serving people, but you also have to look after yourself. So, did the Coast to Coast, which was a bit of a nightmare, but it was a really good personal achievement, and I want to keep fit. It was probably not the smartest thing to do, but I'm really pleased that I finished it. I was the second to last woman home, so I was not an elite athlete, but I was really stoked to finish it. I have had a double masectomy. So, the kayak was the hardest thing ever because it was probably` physically, it was hard, but it was the mental element of it. To do what had previously taken me like seven hours. The total race, I ended up beating my time, but it was really important for my confidence. I have lived an amazing life in that I've had great loves, I've been in my dream job, I think I've helped people. Yeah, I've still got, I think, a lot to contribute, and that's why I'm still here. Nikki Kaye there. Right, time now for our first panel of the year. Welcome to Thomas Pryor from Sherson Willis PR, Tracy Watkins ` editor of the Sunday Star-Times, and Russel Norman ` executive director at Greenpeace. Thanks to you all for being here. Russel, let's kick off with you. The minister, Shane Jones, said that, basically, you're indulging conspiracy theories with your petition to remove him from any decision making about fisheries. Yeah, and I guess the thing about that is that there's hidden elements, which is surely one of the defining natures of a conspiracy, the fact that the New Zealand First Foundation and New Zealand First haven't declared the money that they're taking from Talley's, I guess, does go some of the way to reaching the conspiracy theory kind of point. Look, they took money from Talley's, they didn't declare it. New Zealand First are very involved in decision affecting Talley's, and they've been defending court cases, all the rest. It is very important` But there's no apology from Shane Jones. He says he's just representing a heartland industry. Yes, or, um` (CHUCKLES) It's true that the New Zealand fishing industry is important, I take that, but like any industry, it needs to be regulated for the public good, not the private good, and that requires politicians who are willing to take decisions that the industry doesn't always like, and so, there needs to be independence. What we've said is that Shane Jones and New Zealand First should be taken away from those fisheries decisions because, clearly, they're caught up with the fishing industry. Well, Thomas, Shane Jones is unashamedly pro-industry, and so, what is wrong with that? Well, he'd say very little, and I mean, I think Shane and Russel are in some ways each-other's best friends, because actually, it's good for Shane kind of have this sort of spat with Greenpeace. And it's probably good for Greenpeace, right? To kind of be... (LAUGHS) To be standing up and holding people like Shane to account. So, no, listen, I think you can` That there is a very fair and reasonable argument, which Russel's making, around transparency and accountability here. But I think, frankly, from Shane's point of view, he, uh, you know, he'll see it as a positive. He's very happy to be seen to be standing up. And I mean, and to give him his credit, he's never made a secret of the fact that he a unashamed champion of the fishing sector. That's true. And he's gonna be anything but, sort of, impartial in assessing their arguments. And he's never actually made a secret of the case either, that, in Shane's case, that he received money as a candidate from the fishing industry, which is separate to the New Zealand First Foundation. And that is true. So, I did ask him about whether he knew about the money that went to the New Zealand First Foundation. Yeah, he didn't quite answer that in a way, did he? He said he wasn't across the detail. Which is quite a good politician' answer, I think. But doesn't it, the whole lot of it, show, just like with New Zealand First and the foundation, we've seen with National now, the SFO investigating the charges, and then we see Lianne Dalziel and Phil Goff. The whole issue around electoral donations is just a mess, it needs to be tidied up. There are loopholes, or you could say, you know, there could be illegalities or loopholes. We don't know. That's really the heart of the issue, isn't it? It's just transparency is not there, and this has caused all these problems. Has anybody this election year actually said that they're gonna clean this up. Has anybody said that? Probably the Greens. And I think the Greens are the only ones who are relatively clean in this regard. I think all the other parties have certainly fairly cynically exploited the loopholes in our donations, and I don't think have really` They kind of make the noises, but I don't think have a great appetite for a reforming them. Cos it's useful for them, right? The threshold levels are useful, the way that, you know, the way that you can get around them, they all take advantage of them one way or another. So we've got, you know, New Zealand First foundation getting investigated, we've got charges against the National Party donations process, and now we've got Labour mayors involved, Russel, I mean, is Labour gonna be dragged down by this as well? It's obviously a bit more distant with the Labour Mayors. But clearly they're gonna be caught up in it a bit. I mean, you know, I've always thought that there is a common interest in actually improving the system. And at various times, we have reformed the system a bit. But it would be great to see it improved dramatically. Cos it is a huge threat to our democracy. The influence of money on politics is a real threat to our democracy. And so I do think we should clean it up. But it seems, is there a functioning western electoral system that has good, robust, clear electoral donation laws that aren't' exploited by the parties? It just seems the moment you reform it, they go and find away around it. Yeah. It's like tax law, I mean, it's kind of like, 'Yeah, sure.' But you just need to stay on top of it. It requires constant attention. I mean, you don't do anything just because other people haven't succeeded? And ultimately, it just comes down to that issue of people just need to know. Not stopping the donations, but people need to know about them and make their own judgements, I think. I think that's the issue, it's the fact that there's so much effort being made, being put into hiding them or to not disclose` you know, avoiding naming people is the issue. So do you think that, you know, with this reporting done by Radio New Zealand and Stuff about the New Zealand First Foundation, that is gonna have any influence on New Zealand First voters? Well, we've seen that before, didn't we, in 2008 when New Zealand First was voted out of parliament, and there were a lot of sort of, like, allegations then swirling around, which I would say, none of them were proven to be illegal. I think the SFO did investigate, and they cleared them. But it did impact on New Zealand First getting back into parliament. So I think, given where they are in the polls at the moment, it's perilous. It will definitely impact` The only thing I would say, it's now become so messy and so universal, it's a bit of a plague on all their houses. Yeah. Yeah, but in terms of for New Zealand First going forward, how dependant are they going to be on Shane Jones winning Northland? Well, exactly. And I mean, you know, cos if the narrative around New Zealand first is the battlers party that they try to portray, in fact, it turns out they're the billionaires party, cos, you know, Billionaires First, cos that's where their money's come from. If Shane Jones is running in Northland, there's a lot of recreational fishers in Northland who are pretty upset by the way the commercial fishing companies get away with basically stealing all the fish out the ocean, and the fact that Shane is so close to Tallies and the commercial fishing companies is not gonna play well in an election in Northland. But will the good people of Northland overlook that with the amount of regional spending that's been going on up there. I mean, I dunno. It'll be fascinating to see. Because, I mean, to their credit, there has been a huge amount of investment through the PGF going to Northland. Shane's been really present up there, he's been really visible. I mean, obviously, he lives there. But the's been spending a huge amount of time... Will that actually filter through? It's a big ask, it's a really big ask, actually. And what will be really interesting will be if at some stage, I know that Ardern has been firm so far in ruling out telling Labour voters in Northland to vote for Shane, but it wouldn't surprise me if, a few weeks to go, it kind of looks like they'll need New Zealand First, if there's, sort of, some sort of wink-wink, nod-nod. Even if it's not an explicit deal, it wouldn't surprise me, you know, if it's the difference between being a Labour-led government, or there not being a Labour-led government, they'd be mad not to. Yep. One last thing about Shane Jones, he yesterday after Friday on the Infrastructure Commission Symposium, he talked about having a Maximum Population Policy. Is this just reverting back to type come election year, Tracy? Well, it's always been a popular bandwagon for New Zealand First, the anti-immigration platform. I noticed that previously, I think that, you know, Winston Peters has always been very strong on the sort of Asian immigration, and this times Shane Jones is taking pot-shots at Indian immigration. That's not gonna work well for Labour, which has a large ethnic vote, so I don't think they'd be happy about that. But yeah, I think it's just, you know, going back to the old tried-and-true for New Zealand First, really. And you'd agree with that, Thomas? Yeah, it feels to me New Zealand First at the moment are just flying a bunch of kites, they're looking for their hot button issue, right, and what people will seize on to. And obviously, this is one they've tried, and it's worked for them previously, so it'll be fascinating to see if it resonates. I think, equally, there'll be some businesses or some sectors that I would expect New Zealand First might seize to make a bit of a target of, they think there's votes in it, so it'll be fascinating to see what else they choose to focus on in coming months. Oh, well, we're gonna see what's gonna happen. To the panel, thank you very much for your time this morning. And stay with us, we're back after the break. Welcome back and we are back with our panel ` Thomas Pryor, Tracy Watkins and Russell Norman. Jacinda Ardern in Australia this week. Tracy, what did you make of her press conference with Scott Morrison? Well, interesting. She really gave him a serve, as they say, about the deportees issue. It was stronger language than we've ever seen` than we've seen previously from a Prime Minister, particularly to do that while they're standing side-by-side. It's one of those diplomatic gasp of breath ` intake of breath moments. But, you know, we were discussing this before ` it works for her. It works for him. He likes to look strong on this issue. He's never gonna budge on it. Jacinda Ardern is playing to her domestic audience at home about this issue. You know, Labour was very critical of John Key not being tough enough with the Australians on this matter and so she really had to ratchet up the rhetoric, if you like. OK. So Jacinda Ardern's playing to the domestic audience there, Thomas. Is that because Labour's putting all its eggs in one basket in election year? No. I mean, what I think is interesting in the language she used and how forceful it was suggests that actually they are concerned that that kind of 'law and order', 'tough on gangs' pitch that National is doing is getting some traction and that they are a bit weak on it. And so I think what will be fascinating is I think we're going to see more of that kind of populist rhetoric from Labour to try and ensure they don't get outflanked by Bridges. And, I mean, the best thing for Simon Bridges is every time the Mongrel Mob criticise him, right? It's manna from heaven for populist right-wing politician who's trying to sound tough on law and order. So it's clearly going to be one of the big issues for the campaign. Well, one of the issues that we were talking about earlier in the programme was whether Labour, Russell, has to try and convince people that it has brought policy wins. Is that going to be an uphill battle for them? Well, I mean, if you look at climate change, the latest projections showed that New Zealand's emissions are going to keep increasing. So, with the Paris Agreement, we agree to increase our net emissions by 10% from 2005 to 2030. That's what, believe it or not, we agreed to do. And our part was to increase 10%. But we're on track to increase in 20%. Right. Based on the current policy settings. So from, obviously, a climate change point of view, it's pretty bad news. And then on fresh water, which was another big issue at the last election, Labour still don't have anything at all to show on progress on fresh water. So on those two big environment issues, Labour really ` and the Greens, I guess ` are struggling. And there's broader policy issues as well, isn't there? Yeah, and I think Neale Jones actually hit that button on the head ` or hit that nail on the head. There is this narrative that has become quite entrenched that they just haven't done much in government ` that they haven't delivered on their promises. And that's gonna be their hardest thing to combat come the election time. I think National has been quite effective with that. Plus, they've also had criticism from others like Greenpeace and people who might normally be seen as allies. That they're not delivering on some of those flagship policies as well. So I think it's a problem for them. Agriculture is still not part of the Emissions Trading Scheme. I mean, this is John Key's policy. Right? To not have agriculture in the ETS. So it is an unbelievable failure that they haven't got on top of climate change. I'm not sure there's going to be any votes in it, you know? I think that's the kind of brutal reality. The middle voters that actually Labour needs to hold, or to get back from National, probably aren't going to be voting on climate change or environmental issues. What about child poverty? We had the child poverty stats out this week. You could read them any which way you wanted. 20,000 up, according to National. 18,000 down, according to Labour. Does that really resonate with you? Well, I think for the PM, maybe it's not so much the issue, it's the broader credibility, right? Because the Prime Minister ` this is her personal project. She made herself the Minister for Child Poverty Reduction. She made some very strong statements early on that essentially she was going to eliminate child poverty in New Zealand. So that is potentially risky for her. Because she's so personally associated with it. I saw, interestingly, Neale touched on it earlier on in the show and I heard a senior Labour MP talk about it this week. For Labour, this campaign's going to be all about leadership. That's what they're going to talk about. That's their one biggest strength. So if there's any damage to her brand, then Labour's in serious trouble. Their one issue with that is that they have been somewhat captive to New Zealand First and there has been this perception that Jacinda Ardern has been too weak to deal with Winston Peters and New Zealand First. And we have seen when it comes to that 'did we deliver?' It's not just on the environment or child poverty, there's KiwiBuild. Housing was a huge issue at the election. And, of course, we've just seen recently New Zealand First put its foot down on the EV policy as well. I think leadership is absolutely Labour's biggest strength. Jacinda Ardern is a hugely potent weapon for them. But I think there are also negatives in that as well. It would have been great to see her stand up to Winston Peters like she stood up to Scott Morrison. Yeah. (LAUGHS) And she was trying to present that thing at Scott Morrison, but it's like, well, hang on. But here you've got this big problem with New Zealand First and all this donation scandal happening right in front of you and still there's no action. And that's the funny thing when we talk about New Zealand First and the donor issue. People talk about, 'Is it doing damage to New Zealand First?' I actually don't think it is doing a huge amount of damage to New Zealand First. I think their voters either don't register it or don't believe it. I think if there is damage being done, it's probably to Labour and to Ardern. For sort of standing by him. Cos day-after-day she's got to stand by. It lowers her down to that level of grubby politics which a lot of New Zealanders` And they've tried to keep her away from all of that, haven't they? Yeah. But the fact that we're talking the donation investigation into the Labour mayors now, it's starting to spread its tentacles, this. But also Winston Peters is her deputy prime minister. There was more distance between Helen Clark and Winston Peters last time around. I mean, he was Foreign Minister, but they weren't in government. He wasn't quite her right hand man to the extent that perhaps Winston Peters has become Jacinda Ardern's. So there is a close relationship between the two and he is her deputy prime minister. It's going to be fascinating. She's gonna have to defend this pretty much every day between now and the election. Yeah. She's gonna have to defend Winston Peters and New Zealand First donations they didn't declare. Oh, she won't be enjoying that. OK, (CHUCKLES) to the panel, thank you very much for your time today. OK, before we go, we want to play a tribute to someone precious we recently lost. Emma Jolliff was our Newshub Nation co-host until she became sick last year. In true Emma-style, she fought hard with grace, intelligence, empathy and humour until the very end. So this is our little goodbye to such a beautiful person. Kia ora, good morning. I'm Emma Jolliff. We've gathered a few friends here this morning to celebrate another great year. (NAT KING COLE'S 'UNFORGETTABLE') # Unforgettable. # That's what you are. Do you want to come down here and be the background? (LAUGHS) # Unforgettable. # Tho' near or far. It's just 11 nautical miles from the stricken Rena. Emma Jolliff is live at the Blue Bridge Ferry. She joins us now live from Tauranga. Emma Jolliff joins us now for more on this. Live in Wellington. Live outside the Stock Exchange. She joins us now live... It should be a great night. Emma, thank you. # Unforgettable. # In every way. Good morning to you, Prime Minister. Are you muddying what is a sensible debate? Is this naivete or is it poor advice? Emma Jolliff is there. Oh, kia ora from Labour central at the Wharewaka in Wellington. More like ridiculous. Hello? And (LAUGHS) Sorry, I forgot my next line. (CREW LAUGHS) I have a straight back. 'Sit up, for (BLEEP) sake', is what he's trying to say. (LAUGHS) # Thinks that I am # unforgettable too. # That's why, darling... Thank you very much for your company throughout the entire year. And wishing you happy holidays from all of us here at Newshub Nation. And that's all from us for now. I'm Emma Jolliff. Bye. # Unforgettable too. # www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 This programme was made with the assistance of the New Zealand on Air Platinum Fund.