Today on Newshub Nation ` four cases of Covid-19 spreading here. Concert-goers and airline passengers at risk. Health Minister David Clark joins us live. An Auckland family from New Delhi responds to Shane Jones' comments about immigrants. And digital power rankings. How the election battle lines are bring drawn online. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 Kia ora. Good morning. I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation. In this week's political news, the founding female Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons has died at 75. She lead the party from 1995 to 2009, a pioneer on issues of conservation and climate change in New Zealand politics. She is survived by her husband and two children. Jami-Lee Ross used parliamentary privilege to accuse the National Party of holding $150,000 in donations linked to the Chinese Communist Party. It's not clear whether the allegation is related to the current SFO investigation into National. And National MP David Bennett has faced heavy criticism for encouraging panic buying in the face of Covid-19. He made the comments while critiquing the government's response to the virus. Others in the National Party have distanced themselves from his views. So to the top story ` four confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand so far, with more likely. And we've now learned that it has spread for the first time within our borders. The city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged. The new strain of coronavirus, which is similar to the flu, can spread from person to person. It spread from china to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore. We know containment is possible, but the window of opportunity is narrowing. Tensions are rising around New Zealand and the Pacific after our first confirmed case. Actually, this Covid-19 outbreak is looking like it's a much bigger threat to the world. A woman in her 30s has been confirmed as New Zealand's second case of coronavirus. We're about to be hit by a turbulent storm as coronavirus tips economies around the world into chaos. The issue of coronavirus is something that is now the government's top priority. Start worrying about the coronavirus. People are getting better. Almost everybody that we see is getting better. A third case of coronavirus has been confirmed in New Zealand. We now have four cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, and the latest person confirmed to have it attended the sold-out Tool concert at Auckland's Spark Arena last Friday. So it's a fast-moving situation. Most recently we've learned domestic airline passengers have been put at risk and now also those concert-goers. With me now, from Dunedin, is Health Minister David Clark. Minister, thank you for your time this morning. Four confirmed cases of Covid-19 that we know of ` do you have an update for us? I'm not aware of any further positive tests, Simon, at this stage, but the Director General is giving our regular daily briefings, and he will update on any specific testing that's happened overnight later this morning. Sorry, about 1 o'clock this afternoon. 1 o'clock this afternoon. OK. So, look, well, let's go back for this week, talk about the second case and her partner. It was revealed yesterday that he went to the sold-out Tool concert, and he was in the mosh pit. And we've got some pictures of what it was like there. Why is that only considered a casual contact for people that were in the mosh pit with that person? Well, I think the public health officials are experts in this area. This is what they have trained to do. It's why we have a comprehensive and long-standing pandemic plan in place. And so what happens is the public health officials make an assessment of how close people have been and what kind of contact they've been. Got to remember that this disease spreads by coughing, by big droplets, so you've actually got to be very close to somebody. Yeah, in a mosh pit, it's full of sweat, it's full of spit, and there's a lot of people there, and it's a two-hour concert. Isn't that the perfect breeding ground? Well, I think, you know, the reason that public health officials have made this announcement very public is so that people can monitor their own symptoms. This is something, you know, the government's acted decisively, it's acted early. It's meant that we've only got four cases here, where in Australia, for example, they've got 60. Germany's had another 134 overnight. We've acted early, and that's bought us time. But the most important thing here is that people have information, so that they can monitor themselves for any symptoms. We're going to have to become more health conscious as New Zealanders, and if we are worried, make sure that we are self-isolating or contacting their GP by the phone to make a plan. OK. So the people that were in that mosh pit, who were near the partner of the second case, so the man who now has Covid-19, what should they be doing? I mean, are they the ones that have to self-isolate? Are they the ones that have to look at themselves and ring Healthline? Are we relying on them? We are ultimately. This is what public health officials worldwide know works. When people have good information about the likely symptoms, if they develop a cold or a fever, if they start to feel unwell, it's really important that you do those things that you'd do for a cold or flu anyway ` that you self-isolate, that you concentrate on washing your hands. But make a plan, talk to your GP ` give them call and make a plan. Well, let's talk about the handling of this second case. This man's wife, she returned from Northern Italy on Tuesday the 25th. And she says she visited medical clinics in the following days and told them where she'd been, but she wasn't diagnosed. Do you know why that didn't happen? Look, I can't get too far into the specifics of individual cases, but I would say that, you know, the Italian situation was developing when these people got on the plane to come back to New Zealand. There was only 124 cases in the whole of Italy reported at that stage. It has been a rapidly developing situation since then. Yeah. Of course, we know there's been an explosion. We have asked that people self-isolate for a period of 14 days. Sure, but at that time` you say 124 cases at the time that they got on the plane, but at that time, Britain told its people to self-isolate if they'd been in Italy. Were the government too late in putting out a warning about Italy? No, we acted early and decisively. The measures we've taken have been amongst the most forthright in the world. And we don't make any apology for that. We've taken a very precautionary approach. And that's why I think we're doing so much better than most of the countries we like to compare ourselves with. Sure. But if we have put out a warning earlier about Italy and if it had been picked up when this lady said she went to medical clinics, we wouldn't have this situation of the Tool concert, of this lady going on a domestic flight, of her going to a cheerleading thing. It doesn't seem that particular case could get more mishandled. Well, we've got some of the strictest requirements in place of any country in the world, and we acted early and decisively. And I think that is why we've only got four cases at this stage. But we didn't act as quickly as Britain, though, did we? I think you'll see that we were right there at the forefront amongst global, if you looked at all, countries around the world. We were assessing evidence all the time, and we've based our decisions on public health experts giving advice, and we've moved very quickly to make sure that we do have some of the toughest restrictions. If we had some of the toughest restrictions, can you reassure New Zealanders that the same scenario that we've had with the Tool concert, with the domestic flight isn't playing out all around New Zealand. We had the Pixies concert in Auckland last night. What should be happening to those public events? Well, you know, the main advice is that we've got to work together to get through this. New Zealanders are going to have to become more health conscious than they historically have been, probably. I think people need to make sure that if they're feeling unwell ` this goes for colds and flus, any other similar virus ` do stay at home. Don't go to public events. Don't go to work. Make sure that if you're coughing, you're coughing into your elbow. You know, all of those basic things. Wash your hands regularly. And make sure that you are reaching out for help. Get on the phone. Get the advice that you need. All right. So get on the phone, but don't go necessarily to a GP. The question here is should you be setting up not dedicated medical hubs for people who suspect that they've got Covid-19? Because the Royal College of GPs wants this, because they don't want GPs to either get infected or be overrun. We're not at that stage yet. We are having conversations, of course, with the Royal College of GPs. I'm aware that the Director General of health is in regular contact. All of our GPs and primary care facilities have been issued with personal protective equipment. That's been very well orchestrated around the country. Sorry. Has that been well orchestrated? Because NewsHub revealed last night that some DHBs are actually charging the GP clinics for that protective gear. I mean, is that reasonable? Is that well-orchestrated? Well, I think the most important thing is that they have the gear. Sorting out who pays for it is a secondary matter. OK. Do we have enough stocks in the country of protective gear? We do. We've got over 9 million masks we know of one type and another further 9 million of another. We've got a factory in New Zealand. We are fortunate we've got a factory that constructs masks in New Zealand. Lots of other countries do not. We are well prepared for this, and that's the beauty of having this long-standing and comprehensive pandemic plan that we have and also the fact that we took that early and decisive action that's kept Covid-19 at bay. We've been able to look overseas and see what strategies have been working overseas, where sporadic cases come in, to do containment well. And so we've had the time to prepare well, and now we're rolling out our plan. All right. Let's talk about that containment or, say, the protection at the border. There's a travel ban on certain people from China, but I think there's a fair bit of misconception about what that actually is. And I say that because in the seven days to Thursday this March, there were 16 flights from China. That's about 3700 people. So the people that are allowed to come in from, say, China, where's a travel ban are who? Are they just New Zealanders and Australian permanent residents or are there other people allowed to come? That's right. So Australian permanent residents, New Zealand citizens and New Zealand permanent residents are allowed to return. They are expected also to go into self-isolation. They're registered with Healthline for a period of 14 days upon return. It's a very precautionary approach, but it has served us well to date. Sure. Do we know that those 3000-odd people just from China if those planes are full are going into self-isolation? Do we know that? Well, I think the first thing to say is that the planes have not been full. Secondly, around the world, the public health experts tell us that self-isolation is one of the most effective mechanisms we can put in place. It works. When people are kept to themselves, the virus doesn't spread. Do we know that`? The Healthline is checking regularly with people. People are able to get what advice they need from the Healthline. And we have powers ` if we have concerns about people, there are powers in place with this being a notifiable disease, where public health officials can act if they're concerned that people are not taking this seriously. But historically, where we've had other outbreaks, these powers have not been required. Are these powers required now? I mean, what are those powers? If someone is believed not to have self-isolated, what do you do? People can be quarantined. They can be ordered to by public health officers if there is concern. But as I say, historically, these powers have not been needed. OK. We have not needed to use them yet. All right. Just wanted to sort of wrap up. The last Covid-19 case was spread here. So does that mean in our pandemic levels, are we in the 'stamp it out' phase of the pandemic plan We are still predominantly ` it's not a linear thing ` but we're predominantly in the 'keep it out' phase. A lot of resource is going in to making sure that people, as they arrive in New Zealand, have the appropriate information to go into self-isolation if necessary to make sure that they know to watch for symptoms and also making sure that we do contain any cases that come in. Because we can expect to have further cases coming in. Yeah, sure. And then also we're getting public health information out, making sure people understand what symptoms to look for, the importance of self-isolation, washing hands. It's actually going to take all of New Zealand to get through this. I understand that everybody has to buy into this, but the question is, if it's spread from one person to another within New Zealand, hasn't the keep-it-out phase bolted and we need to be moving up that pandemic level? We're not at that stage yet, no. When do we get to that stage? What level of transmission makes this go to the next stage? As far as we are aware, there has not been any community outbreak that's gone further than just those isolated cases that have come in and been able to be isolated at this stage. We are better prepared and in a better position than most other countries in the world, and that's because of that decisive early action, as I've said. And while we've got that advantage, we're going to continue to use it. All right. Health Minister David Clark, I know you're very busy at the moment. Thank you very much for your time. Thanks, Simon. If you've got something to say about what you see on our show, please let us know. We are on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram ` NewshubNationNZ, with the hashtag #NationNZ. Or you can email us at... But still to come ` we dissect the week's political news with our panel. Plus ` an Auckland family from New Delhi in limbo after immigration rules change. Welcome back. Immigration has once again hit the headlines after New Zealand First's Shane Jones told this programme Indian students from New Delhi have ruined academic institutions. Well, this week we met an Indian family from Delhi. Piya and Sunil, not their real names. Four years ago they moved their family here to study and work. They applied for residency 12 months ago, but since then Immigration New Zealand has tightened up the criteria and they are left in limbo. Piya told me they only moved here because of New Zealand's clear and transparent path to becoming a resident. Yes, we did, because the systems here are very transparent. There's no corruption in the system. You don't have to bribe your way through. And so we did expect that, you know, ultimately if we had jobs we would be residents. And when did the family come out, when did you come out? We came out 6 months after she joined. That is around the middle of 2016. And so the plan was that, you know, I'd get some kind of employment here. And so both of us would have jobs, and the kids would then graduate into high school and thereon. So that was the hope. So you've got a lot of qualifications in public policy, and media, and a lot of work experience in this area. I've been in academia, I've been in think-tanks, I've done policy work and media work as well. In places like London and New Delhi? Yes, places like London and New Delhi. So, what are you doing for work? I'm, to supplement the family income, basically doing a retail job on a minimum wage at this point in time. Do you find that hard to accept? It's quite hard to reconcile to the fact that your career has probably come to a halt not for anything that you have basically done. What about the kids? I mean, they have been in high school? Yes. They are in high school? Yes. They came in as kids, young kids, and now they're both teenagers. And they've assimilated really well with the Kiwi society. You are working though, in your area? In your profession? Yes. I am in a marketing company. But you want to be a skilled migrant permanent resident, is that correct? Yes, that is correct. So you've applied for that? Yes. And what's happened? So we submitted our final application in March last year. And we have been waiting ever since. And, in the course of this one year, the processing time for skilled migrant applications have changed from 3 months to 17 months. Have you received any information as to why that has happened? Why it's taking so long? We just know that there is a priority and a non-priority category. And we've been categorised in the non-priority category. What do you need to be prioritised? You have to earn more than $100K or you have to be in a profession which requires registration, like be a doctor or a nurse or something like that. My company doesn't have that sort of income to be able to pay people that sort of money. It would be nice to pay them, but why should they be penalised just on an income point of view? Piya's boss Marilyn runs a small software company, and can't believe her employee's been caught out by a rule change. That is so unfair. There should have been a line put in the sand at the point at which those rules were changed, and that the people who applied prior to that were under a previous scheme rather than, you know, they've now changed. That is so unfair. So, you are in limbo? Yes. Our lives have come to a stop, because we are at a point where our son graduates high school this year. And he would be, you know, technically he would have to go to uni next year. But given the visa rules, now he only qualifies for two kinds of visas. One is a visitor visa, where cannot study or work. Even though he's been here for four years and gone through high school? Yes. He cannot do that. Or a fee-paying international student visa. Which is really beyond our means, because, you know, for one, you need to pay about $50,000 for one year. That's 120 credits in a university, which is absolutely unthinkable for us at this point. So, you're sitting here in limbo, and then you see Shane Jones come on the programme and say that Indian students, or students from New Delhi have ruined tertiary institutions. So, what did you think of that? I was really hurt by it. I mean, I don't think that's entirely true. And Shane Jones has been speaking out against Indians for a while. If you got to a point where it's economically not worth staying here, will you go? Yes, I guess so. And after so much effort to come here and set up your family, school your family, would you be sad to go? Oh yes. I think our children would be devastated. They have very good relationships here, they have very close friends. They love their teachers, they're` Yeah, I mean, my son is part of the school tennis team, he plays football, he... He... (LAUGHS) He'd be completely devastated, seriously. Yeah, I think the impact on the children would be really, really too much to, sort of, bear. So, a difficult situation for Piya and Sunil there. This year, New Zealand's population is forecast to exceed 5 million for the first time. Massey University's Professor Paul Spoonley has researched demographic issues, migration and social policy for decades. He says we should take lessons on immigration from countries that do it well. I began by asking him whether, in an election year, it's possible to have any discussion about immigration without it becoming racist. No. (CHUCKLES) No, I don't think so because as soon as you get to the, sort of, generalities that Shane's involved in at the moment, then you're beginning to be racist in whatever way, shape or form. So I think it's very, very difficult, and I certainly would appreciate a genuine discussion about immigration because it's complex and it's very important to this country. But, of course, once politicians get near it, no, I'm afraid it gets very murky very quickly. Speaking of Shane Jones, on the programme last week he talked about proposing a maximum population policy. What is a maximum population policy? Well, I agree with the population policy because at the moment, our immigration policy is our population policy and it's much more complex than that. So, we've got dropping fertility, we've got an ageing population. Migration is the major source of population growth for this country, and we've been growing quite fast. In the OECD, we've been one of the fastest growing countries because of our immigration. OK. In terms of a maximum population policy, I mean, there's predictions that we're going to hit 5 million population this year and Auckland's going to hit 2 million. It's not about just putting a cap, saying no more than 5 million, is it? No, it's not. No, no, no. No, it's not. So, one of the issues around that is that at 2 million, 40% of all New Zealanders would live in Auckland. Is that something that we really want? And do we want to see the, sort of, West Coast of the South Island, which is already in population decline, continue to decline in population terms? So I think it's really around where the growth is, who's contributing to that growth, the sort of migrants that we need for our economy but also for our society. OK. First of all, one of the claims is that ` and Jones has done this ` is they sheeted a lot of ` our infrastructure problems back to the growth in immigrants. Is that fair? I think it's`In part, it is fair because what you're seeing is migration growth here which is quite substantial. Just to give you one figure. Between 2013 and 2018, we had a net gain of 260,000 from migration. That's huge. We've never seen it before in our history, and it's unusual in terms of the OECD. So that growth, that population growth from migration has certainly contributed to demand, but then I think it's much more complex than that. I think historically we've had a deficit in terms of infrastructure. Transport` So you can't just purely sheet it back--? No, no. OK. All right. That would be very unfair because what's ironic is that not only do those migrants contribute to demand, but also they're an important part of workforce building the infrastructure. OK, but does that point back to Labour's promise last election to cut migration by, say, up to 30,000? That seems to have disappeared as an official target, but what are they doing behind the scenes? Are they actually working towards that? Yes, well, I think they've been a little deceitful there because, in effect, they've dropped the number of residencies they're approving each year and that is dropping the net gain for migration. So if you look at the migration figures, they set a target of 20,000 to 30,000. They're not going to reach the 20,000, but they're certainly going to have dropped the numbers of permanent residents arriving here in this country down considerably. Because net migration's running about 44,000 now down from highs of 60,000 or 70,000. Yes, indeed. OK, but is the government still trying to keep enough of those migrants coming in to keep the economy looking healthy and keep the country growing? I mean, that's the balance, is it? It is the balance. There's a sweet spot there about the numbers coming in and meeting particularly our labour and skill demands. So it's quite an interesting, quite complex area. Do you know what that sweet spot is? Um, yes... You do? You should tell Labour. (LAUGHS) Well, I think Australia and Canada set their target at about 1% of their population, which I don't think is a bad target. That's net migration gain per year. And we don't have that target, though, do we? No, we don't, but at 44,000, we're below, because typically it would be around that 50,000 net gain. So Labour's doing these surreptitious things behind the scenes to reduce the migration. We've just seen a story of a family who's caught in limbo because of these changes in policies. They're no longer a priority. They don't know whether they're going to get residency here. Is that fair? Have the goalposts been moved without people knowing? No, I don't think it is. I mean, I think one of the things that makes us attractive is that when people come here on temporary work or study visas, hey get a chance to transition to permanent residents. That's very, very attractive. That's what makes` And have we been selling that? Well, we have been selling that, and I'm in the tertiary sector and that's been an important part of our attraction for international students. So what I think the government has done has increased the temporary workforce quite considerably but then reduced the number of residencies, so that transition from a temporary work visa to permanent resident has been reduced over the last two years. Is that creating a Dubai of the South Pacific kind of arrangement where we have temporary, cheaper labour? Uh, yes, it is. It is? The Dubai example is an interesting one. I don't think we're as bad as Dubai. think there are much more explicit rules and procedures around the temporary work visas here, but what I do think it is is it's producing a lot of frustration because the backlog of people applying for residency and not getting it has tripled over the last year. Does that mean we're going to see those people leave if they can't get their residency? Well, they'll have to leave. I mean, the rules are that if they don't meet the requirements, for example, double the median income ` so $160,000 salary ` in order to qualify... I mean, that's a huge ask, so I think some of the rules are making it very difficult for the temporary migrants to get approval to stay. OK. From research that you've done ` and I'm looking toward the March 15 anniversary here ` but what role do immigration settings have on breeding or preventing extremism in a country? A lot, really, because if you're bringing in migrants who are creating anxiety, then at the fringe of that, you're getting people who are radicalising the message about the Great Replacement, which is one of the key messages of the far right, and that is that somehow we, the host population, the white population, the Pakeha population, is being outnumbered by people who are not of our culture, not of our ethnicity, not of our religion. And so that produces not only a generalised anxiety; it also produces a fringe who are prepared to act on that. That fringe isn't based on fact because research out this week shows one in three New Zealanders were probably born overseas already. Indeed. So, we've got one of the highest proportions of overseas born, and of course, we are being interviewed in a city which is regarded as the fourth most diverse city in the world. So I think we should be careful because over the past few decades, we've seen this increase in diversity without some of the conflict and the anti-immigrant politics that we've seen in other countries. But I don't think we should be complacent. OK. Do you think that the government is going to address this? Can we expect any change in policy? Yes, I think they will, and they're going to do it in various ways. I mean, one of those is to look at the hate speech regulations, so expanding the protected characteristics. The other is to introduce a policy around social inclusion. What does that mean? It really identifies what we should be doing onshore. So the migrants have arrived here, they're part of our community. What should we be doing to help them settle here and what should we be doing to reduce any anxieties from the host population? So it's really a partnership between the new arrivals and the people that are here and making sure that all our systems are working. Okay, so a big debate to be had in an election year. Can you point us to one country where this system is actually working? I would point to Canada. I think that Canada does a lot of this really well, and some of the things we need to look at is what do the Canadians do post-arrival to help them? So, for example, they give them so many hours' English language instruction. What are they doing to distribute migrants around the country? What are they doing to help Canadians understand that diversity and migration are really important to Canada's success? So we should be doing all of those things. Paul Spoonley, thank you very much for your time today. Thank you, Simon. All right. Up next, we dissect the news and politics of the week with our panel. Plus, a deepening crisis in rural mental health. Reporter Lisette Reymer with her investigation. Welcome back. I'm joined now by our panel ` political reporter Dileepa Fonseka from Newsroom, NZME head of business Fran O'Sullivan and associate professor Khylee Quince from AUT. Everybody, thank you for your time this morning. Let's talk Covid-19. Four cases confirmed. Likely to be more, as the minister said this morning. Fran, how does the government appear to be handling this this week after such a volatile week? Look, I think the government's handling it probably as good as it can. It's been clear in its messaging. There'll be a lot happening behind the scenes, and particularly what do they do as crutches economically. I think there are some issues around, you know, how people actually go and get measured. You know, someone suggesting having a drive-in, kind of, station for working out whether people have the virus and to be tested, rather than coming into doctors' waiting rooms or directly into emergency centres. So I think there's a bit of stuff that needs to be sorted out. But, I mean, if it gets away on us, places being, you know, sewed up. It's all about really the population buying in to the message, isn't it, and doing self-isolation. Dileepa, do you think they're doing enough of a message around that? Are they getting that across? I think absolutely. I mean, it seems like that message is out there. I don't think there's anybody who's unaware of these measures that are in place. I think this whole Coronavirus thing is one of those things where you only really know if it's worked, you know, a few months down the track. So, you know, either we'll be sitting a few months down the track and going, 'Oh, you know, we all overreacted to that,' which would be a good sort of scenario, or we'll be saying we didn't do enough. Yeah. And I suppose in this respect, I think a lot of people have just decided we need to trust the officials and the official advice and go from there. When to get to sort of, you know, revelations that people who have Covid-19 have been to a Tool concert where there's 12,000 people, and they're in the mosh pit, I mean, if you've been to a mosh pit, there's a lot of stuff going on in a mosh pit, right? Mm. I was in a mosh pit on that Saturday night. Were you? Not at Tool, but at Alien Weaponry, just down the road, supporting Maori metal, yes. So were you concerned that somebody in that audience may have had Covid-19? Not at all. I mean, I think you're right in terms of social behaviour, that there's possibly slightly more contact than you'd get, even sitting on a plane next to a person who turns out to be infected, but I think the messaging's been strong. You know, as Fran said, you know, so moving from perhaps going to self-test now to say ring Healthline; don't necessarily put other people at risk. There is that concern, isn't there? I mean, should we have dedicated areas that are set up for testing, so you don't have these people coming in to GPs? Fran, what do you think? Yeah, I think we should, because the danger of cross-infection is quite high. And now they're actually advising people if you do have symptoms, to ring ahead and, you know, come in to your GP, but maybe the GP place is not the place for it. Maybe there does need to be some dedicated testing stations or places where people, you know, can stay for a while, and then perhaps go to hospital if they need it. OK. Will Coronavirus affect the election, Dileepa? Well, I mean, I think it's certainly going to affect the economy. Mm. And in that respect, it will affect the election. And, I mean, if this continues on, how is this election campaign going to be held? It will change, potentially, the way that people are going to operate in public areas. So how does that affect even the art of campaigning? We don't really know at this stage. So too early? I think so. But it is going to have an impact. And, I mean, I think that those things like what kind of stimulus are we going to provide in the economy are going to become real big issues in this election. Just quickly, is this an opportunity for National to get in and say, 'Look, we're the economic managers; 'we should be trusted'? I mean, this is what they're doing. Do you think that's the message that they're just going to plough on with? Bridges is certainly giving that message, isn't he? I think personally it's a big mistake. I think the much more kind of restrained messaging from Paul Goldsmith is what you want. What you actually want in these circumstances is a government to govern and to take charge. I really think they should be offering a hand across the house, taking out the aggressive messaging and saying, you know, 'What can we do together?' OK. Look, another big topic that's raised its head is immigration this week, Shane Jones obviously with his comments last week backed up by his leader, Winston Peters, on Friday, where he said that, you know, immigration is part of their platform. Dileepa, you've been writing about this this week. What do you take of what's going on? Well, I mean, they're saying that they want a population policy debate, which I think is fine, but at the moment, they've having a race debate, which is probably something that nobody in New Zealand, except a very small minority, really wanna have. And we've got this massive problem where we, as a nation, have been bringing in a lot of people on temporary and student work visas, promoting it overseas as a good pathway to residency, and these people have come here with that idea in mind. They don't think they've come through the back door and they're trying to sneak in; they think they've just followed the rules. Yeah. So it was promoted this way in their countries; they came over here and studied. Yeah. And now we're just turning the tap off. Is that fair? Is that fair, Khylee? No. What Professor Spoonley was describing sounds like musical chairs. You know, we let in a certain number of people, and then we funnel them into an ever decreasing number of permanent residence visas. No, that's not fair. No. You don't get your residence chair, you get out. That's right. OK. But we need immigrants, right? We need migration. Yes, we do. We have a declining natural population. Yes, we do. And the $108,000 is actually quite a major salary or wage to have prioritisation. Oh, the prioritisation wage, yeah. I think one of the issues, just to go back and look at the political constituency for this argument, you know, the argument that Mr Jones is making, it may well play well in Northland. Northland has got, you know, a large Maori population. And, you know, you dig down in various places, there is the sense that people haven't got what they should have got, and including in Auckland, where, you know, you've got Pasifika and Maori, growing Chinese population, which is doing very well. And, you know, we've been very lucky that we've managed it without, you know, the natural populations, if you like, that have been here a long time actually not pushing back Yeah. It's coming to a crunch point, isn't it? First of all, what do you say to the idea that Shane Jones is just pushing it because of his Northland bed? Well, I think it's interesting that Fran raises Northland, because, I mean, he's dog whistling to the New Zealand First constituents, who are the Pakeha populations of Northland, not to my whanaunga, not to my relatives. But I think you're right ` I think we've actually been quite fortunate that, you know, there is a very thinly veiled racism amongst those populations that hasn't come to a head yet. So, 11% of Northland is Asian, actually, by ethnicity, so, I mean, it's not massively out of proportion to the rest of the country. But I think what we have had, though, is we've had a very rapid move from biculturalism to multiculturism, and so far we've managed it very well. But there always pressure points. And, you know, I think they're obviously going to scratch that itch. If you go back in history, remember, you know, the Asian invasion hysteria, which actually New Zealand First leveraged quite well back in previous elections, so, yeah, they are going for votes. There's no Indian invasion, I mean, so why would they be targeting the Indian community? Dileepa, any thoughts on that? It is a good question. I mean, I know some Indians who voted for New Zealand First, so, I mean, I assume they're not going to this time. And, you know, Paul Spoonley, you know, mentions since 2013, there's actually been quite a few migrants who've been added on to the electoral roles, effectively ` I think something like 250,000. Those are all going to be potential voters this election as well. So I don't know if he's reading the electoral mood correctly, if people really wanna have the culture debate they might have had 10, 15 years ago. And I guess in terms of the electoral mood, Jacinda Ardern, I've gotta wrap it up, but she is really sort of starting to push herself away as much as she can, so it's the voters who decide now. Yeah, very, very difficult position, though, cos she might still need those votes being hoovered up by New Zealand First with its, you know, vaguely racist tactics. (CHUCKLES) We'll see what happens later on the year. Thank you very much to the panel. OK. Up next ` digital editor Finn Hogan on how the election battle lines are being drawn online. Plus ` a report from Lisette Reymer on our farmers struggling with their mental health in a changing landscape. Welcome back. We've seen it happen around the world ` online campaigns with the power to change the course of history. In New Zealand, our political parties are jockeying for position now ahead of election 2020, so we're going to be checking in regularly with digital editor Finn Hogan. Finn, thank you for joining us. Can you tell us what's defining the online race so far? Good morning, Simon. Well, so far National's really been dominating with this really pointed series of attack ads. You know the ones I'm talking about ` they're quite slickly produced, they're quite playful. But what they're very good at is undermining the government's authority while being very difficult to succinctly refute without just further enhancing National's message, you know, increasing the reach. And this is a pretty familiar playbook by this point. We saw Boris Johnson do this in the UK. We've seen Scott Morrison do this in Australia. And that comparison's quite key, because Simon Bridges and National actually brought over a key campaign staffer from Scott Morrison's campaign, by the name of Nick Westenberg, over to the National Party retreat earlier in February. I wonder what they were talking about (!) (CHUCKLES) No dollars for guessing, but they were behind closed doors. How do we know what's actually going on with their online campaigning? Yeah, this is really important because Facebook's actually set up a transparency tool in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, and it's basically a way for people to see how much money a party is spending on their ads and where they're targeting it. Now, Green's have signed up to this. ACT have signed up to it. Labour are soon to. And National haven't. And why? Well, I just think the obvious answer is the correct one on this ` they just don't want people to know how much money they're spending on ads because, you know, to use a technical term, I think it's heaps. Yeah, I'd like to know as well. Do you think if they are spending a lot of money, do you think National's strategy is working? There's a couple of things on this. I think in strict sense, in the numbers game, Jacinda Ardern and Labour are always going to wipe the floor with National and Simon Bridges online, and that's because Jacinda Ardern is inarguably just a massive superstar internationally. But that doesn't necessarily translate domestically, and I think domestically Simon Bridges really is landing blows on Labour's brand. Like, for example, when he keeps hammering them over gangs, you know, using this really evocative language, like, 'Gangs are cancer. Gangs are cancer.' I've crunched the numbers on this, and those posts tend to do up to six times better than posts averagely do on his page, and what that tells me is that I think National's taking a really granular, meticulous look at their use of social media advertising this year, and in that sense, I think they're kind of ahead of the game with Labour and Greens. OK. So do you think that National is too far ahead to catch them on the online race? Well, no. Definitely not. I just think as we get closer to the election, Labour's going to have to shift gears a bit and start hitting National where it hurts. They've been doing a very policy-heavy game so far online, and while we like to think the average voter is a massive policy geek, like us, they're just not. If Labour turn this into a popularity contest, just pitting the massive popularity of Jacinda Ardern against the massive unpopularity of Simon Bridges, they're gonna have a much stronger case. (CHUCKLES) All right, well, let's wrap it up. What's the best and worst use of social media by a politician so far? Let's start with the best. OK, for my money, the best use of social media so far this year is Andrew Little's take on the display picture challenge. Look, a) it's objectively quite funny, but b) what it speaks to more broadly is I think he's found this really fun balance between being the stern justice minister and being the fun uncle of the Labour Party, and I think it really plays well for him online. All right. And the worst. The worst is unquestionably Nicola Willis, National MP, attempting to use Tik Tok. We've got a clip, and I must warn the audience ` this is very challenging footage. Your cringe-ometer is just going to overload on this. (CHUCKLES) And look, I get it. I get it. Everyone's trying to, kind of, get down with the youth and, you know, chase that youth vote, but this clip, when it got out, was so badly received online that The Daily Mail literally ran a headline which was just 'Please Stop.' And even in these divided times, I think we can all get onboard with that. A message we can all get behind. Finn Hogan, thank you very much. Thank you very much, Simon. All right, stay with us. We're back after the break. Welcome back, and we're back with our panel, Dileepa Fonseka Fran O'Sullivan and Khylee Quince. This week we had some sad news about the passing of Green Party co-founder Jeanette Fitzsimons. Dileepa, how will she be remembered? I think she'll be remembered as somebody who really set the scene for the place of the Greens in the MMP landscape. And also, probably, you know one of the most successful small parties in the MMP environment. And that legacy has carried on right through. She's still the only one to have won an electorate seat, but the party doesn't need it. And, you know, as one of the few small parties that doesn't need, you know, an electorate backstop, can survive on the party vote, and be relatively secure in that footing, and she, I think, through her leadership, was able to really inspire the next generation to come through and she... We've had this managed transition into the new Green leadership. And now you wouldn't have even known any different. You wouldn't consider the political landscape without the Greens now. Exactly. And, yeah, it's been such a` They're such a... They're such a well-established force in the political landscape. And that's her legacy. OK. We've also had some unfortunate news this week of Sir Michael Cullen diagnosed with lung cancer, and Sir Rob Fenwick as well, who's battling cancer, Fran. Yeah, I mean, it's very tough. I mean both these men, you know, they have aggressive cancers, it's fair to say, and that's why Sir Michael has stood down from a range of governance roles. And Rob has been, you know, battling away, as he calls it, dancing with his cancer for some time. Some five years now. But there's just a couple of points I wanted to make about them, and I was reflecting when we were thinking about, you know, the position of the opposition at this time, talking about coronavirus. And I remember very clearly in parliament at a function, as he was stepping down from his political career, at the time of the GFC, and he was openly wishing the government, the new government, National, luck. And he knew what they were up against, he knew what they would need, and I think there's a kind of message here for the opposition today with this government too. And in terms of Sir Rob, what he has done is he's said, in terms of the coronavirus, yes it's an existential type of threat, but it's not that different to what we're seeing on biodiversity at this time, which also is an existential threat. So, real clarity of messaging there in a poignant time for all. Yeah, OK. All right, I just want to move on to politics as well for the Maori Party, and John Tamihere has announced that he's gonna stand for the Maori Party. Khylee, um, interesting to see him putting his hand up again. Look, a pretty odd rebranding, in my view. To choose JT, not only to run in Tamaki Makaurau, against Peeni and up against Marama Davidson this time, but in terms of party leadership, to put upfront a guy who voted as a Labour MP for the Foreshore and Seabed legislation, now to be standing for the party who of course grew out of that crisis, a really odd choice, I think, and quite backwards looking. Dileepa, do you think he's actually got a chance? It's hard to say. I mean` He's a popular but polarizing figure. He's popular and polarizing. I'm not sure what kind of appetite there is in the Maori seat to elect him. It also would seem to pull against the kind of direction the Maori Party has been leaning in recently. We heard noises from the President and party leaders saying, 'Well, 'you know, we would prefer a coalition with Labour this time.' And this would seem to be going in the other direction. Yeah, well, he's not even allowed to be a Labour Party member any more, remember? (LAUGHS) What role do you think JT's looking for here, Fran? I mean, as Khylee says, it seems to go in the other direction` Well, he's wanting to resume his political career, essentially, and any horse will do. That's the way I see it at the moment. But, however, you know, he's a wildcard. You can't` He's experienced, he's agile, he knows how` You know, and he can push the boundaries. And if he can, I guess, scratch a sore in the Maori community which says, 'Hey, you haven't really delivered to us, government.' And it might just be a good idea to have someone who can add a little bit of tension. It's a big ask, isn't it, against Peeni Henare, I mean, Labour has all seven seats. Well, they haven't always had all seven seats. And in some ways, it actually the Maori constituencies clout with the government if they're seen as a captive part of a political party. It places quite a lot of pressure on Maori voters in Tamaki Makaurau, like myself, to think very carefully about strategic voting, not to split the vote between Marama and JT against Peeni. Um, so, yeah. OK. All right, well, thank you very much to the panel this week. Water reform, climate change, mounting debt and now the unpredictability of M. bovis and coronavirus ` over the course of just one generation, the once golden farming industry has been redefined as a mental health minefield. Now health professionals are warning that unless the rural health crisis is addressed, more people will die and the industry will struggle to survive. Lisette Reymer reports. If you ask a farmer why they love what they do, they'll tell you it's about being on the land, having their families close, it's about the animals, it's about putting in hard work, and in their words, getting a bloody good product in return. Come on! But sometimes when you're in the thick of it all of that is hard to see. Man, now... (INHALES) (SIGHS) Yeah. It's such a, you know` Now I'm the happiest we've` Um, yeah, I'm not showing happiness at the moment, but just emotion. But, um, the happiness I've ever been, and I just look back and I think, 'Wow, what a mistake that would have been to, to get out of it.' Mark and Maria Gascoigne are proud dairy farmers, but four years ago, they came painfully close to calling it quits. I do remember Maria saying, you know, 'Maybe you should go to the doctor,' um, and, um, 'Maybe you've got depression.' And I felt like it` And I felt like it was a slap in the face, you know? Bogged down by the wet winters and dry summers, decision-making became impossible and 2AM wake-ups with worst-case scenarios playing on repeat, on the brain, became the norm. And then one morning, while getting the cows in, something snapped. Suddenly this felt like the whole world was just closing in. And, you know, the feeling you get when someone gives you a fright jumps out from behind a door, and it's just, you know, that adrenaline rush for a second, it felt like that for 10 minutes. It was just the most awful feeling. Their farm just out of Cambridge has been in the family for 100 years. You don't wanna be the one that gives up, you know? But that was where Marc's depression was driving them. Like, if this is farming, then I don't wanna be doing this, cos it's too hard on you, and also on the family. One in four New Zealanders live in rural areas, and the Rural GP Network says mental health services are so overloaded farmers are falling through the cracks. Actually, we have got to a crisis time. We're not just talking about this being in 10 years time, it's happening right now. It's gonna be worse in 10 years time, cos we know most of our GPS and nurses who work rurally are in their 50s now, and are planning to retire within the nett 10 years. So we're looking at a massive issue that's just gonna get worse. The Government has committed $1.5 billion dollars to mental health in its well-being budget. But Dr Fiona Bolden worries that money won't be invested in the rural community. We need a whole rural healthcare team, and we need them everywhere. With agriculture making up almost half of New Zealand's gross emissions, farming has become a lightning-rod for public criticism and government legislation. New Zealand's biggest dairying region has been slammed. In fact, we've passed peak pollution. And that means no special treatment for farmers. It's a double whammy for farmers. The Gasgoines have invested tens of thousands of dollars into planting 7000 natives. The riparian area helps offset emissions and acts as a filter for runoff from the paddocks. Gotta do that 2000 times. (CHUCKLES) Takes a bit of work. But the deepening urban-rural divide makes all the work feel futile. It's not cheap, and it takes a lot of time. And that's where it does get frustrating. Sometimes I do feel like saying, 'Well, OK, what have you done for the environment today?' I mean, I've spent the whole day in the hot sun, yeah, looking after these trees. 20% of Kiwis have a negative view of dairying. 12% have a negative feeling towards sheep and beef farmers. Small percentages that are having a profound impact. People are not looking up to farmers any more. Some farmers are actually ashamed to say that they're farmers in mixed social settings. Neil Bateup is the chair of the Rural Support Trust. In the Waikato alone, they receive a call a day from a farmer in need of help. At the moment, the Jersey cows are camouflaging into drought-stricken paddocks on Neil's farm, but for the first time in the 48 years he's farmed here he's feeling more pressure from people than the weather. In the old days, most urban people had a relation on a farm, and they visited the farm, and they could see what was happening. MPI research has that these days 60% of urbanites won't regularly visit rural communities. And Neil says the perceived public perception, along with new legislation, is pushing those already vulnerable farmers to breaking point. They feel like they've almost been a burden on society and that they've ruined New Zealand. The pressure on the rural sector at the moment, he believes, is rivalling what was felt during Rogernomics. There's more, sort of, mental pressure there. We could, sort of, do the numbers in those days, and you could see a way through it. We're just not quite sure what's ahead of us. He wants the government to communicate better and work with farmers... Actually putting people together, um, with some scientists, with some science, to actually look at what proposals are there. ...to help them understand new regulations so people can see a positive future for their businesses ` and for their life on the farm. Over the past decade, 172 farmers have taken their own lives. Provisional data shows that in the year 2018 to 2019, 13 farmers died by suicide. That's actually down from 23 the year prior. But already in the months since, another 10 suspected suicides have been referred to the coroner. I don't know the stats, and I probably don't need to, because all you need to know is that there's a heap of farmers out there killing themselves because they're just getting into these dark holes, and they can't get out. Stephen Thomson's seen it firsthand. Born and raised on a farm, he's worked as a beef and sheep consultant, and now sells rural real estate. He's also a surfer. Are you more passionate about farming or surfing? Mate, I'm passionate about helping people. Which brings us here, to Gisborne, the home of Surfing for Farmers. Come down to the beach for a couple of hours every week, out in the ocean, no cell phones, no dogs, no sheep, no dramas. Farm gear is traded for wetsuits. You got shorts on? Yep. Yep. And stress is swapped for surf. (WHOOPS) The initiative is sponsored by local businesses and spear-headed by Stephen, all in a bid to get farmers off the farm and active. Ultimately, to save their lives. So we get guys who will come down a long, windy, gravel road for over an hour, week in, week out, for no particular reason, but they just keep coming. And they go in, and they look a bit grumpy, and they come out, and they're grinning ear-to-ear. The programme has expanded around the country to Christchurch, Waihi, and the Mount, with around 150 farmers getting out on the water weekly. It's great to walk out there and for a short period of time every week have no worries in the world, be thinking about the next wave coming in, rather than what's happening out on the farm. And when the surfing's done, old and young get around the barbie and trade tips about surfing... You just go a bit further up on the board. ...and farming. With the Zero Carbon Bill and National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management being introduced, there's plenty to get their heads around, and connecting with fellow farmers has become a lifeline. For the last 100 years in New Zealand, you know, we've been able to do almost whatever we wanted, and then overnight they just want us to fix it, flat out, and most guys are quite keen and hungry to improve their farms from a clean water perspective and native bush and stuff like that, but the big thing is it actually costs a lot of money. Money also the only thing stopping Stephen from getting Surfing for Farmers on the road. His dream is to have a travelling truck bringing surfboards to isolated areas of the coastline so all farmers can experience this. It's good for the soul. Oh, brilliant. Yeah, wish I'd done it 20 years ago. And with the next 20 years of farming promising more reform, more extreme weather, more challenges, arming farmers with the necessary strategies to ride the wave has never been more critical. Lisette Reymer reporting there. And that's all from us today. Thank you for watching, and we'll see you again next weekend. Captions by Able Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 This programme was made with the assistance of the NZ On Air Platinum Fund.