Today, on Newshub Nation ` Could the lockdown last more than four weeks? We ask Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Doctors and nurses on why they're still fearful for their safety. And Simon Bridges on how he plans to run and effective opposition through a state of emergency. Kia ora, good morning. I'm Simon Shepherd and welcome to Newshub Nation. Grabbing the headlines this week ` Christchurch gunman Brenton Tarrant pleaded guilty to 51 charges of murder, 40 charges of attempted murder and one charge of terrorism. He previously denied the charges and was set to go on trial in June. New Zealand is now in lockdown for at least a month. The government moved the country to pandemic alert 4 at midnight on Wednesday. A nationwide state of emergency is in effect and only essential services remain. We currently have 338 confirmed cases if Covid-19. And confirmed cases of Covid-19 are half a million worldwide, with a death count passing 26,000. The US is now the global epicentre, with nearly 95,000 confirmed cases. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for Covid-19. Well, our Prime Minister said we had to go hard and go early, but our cases are spiking and about to spike further. So I asked Jacinda Ardern, is our health system prepared? We've been talking about everything, from the scaling up of testing, which is incredibly important, the ongoing work of public health on contact tracing, which continues to scale up also and of course the all-important measures we need to take to protect our front line health staff with PPE or personal protective equipment. All of that we continue to scale up daily. OK, so you're talking ramping up testing. Is there facility to bring that even further up than the 1500 a day? So, we have a rolling average, at the moment, that's sitting around 1500. But actually the number that were tested overnight was over 2000. So you can see those numbers are climbing. We have an additional three labs that we expect will come online in the near future. So ` continuing to build that capacity. The number of tests we're undertaking for our population size is already very, very good. But we want to keep growing that capacity. Do you know how big that capacity will become? As I say, already we're processing overnight over 2000 ` that, you'll remember, is an excess of where we were even a short time ago. I don't have the additional capacity those three labs will add, but, as I say, we're continuing to grow the number of tests that we can undertake in New Zealand. Now, you've just the release of four million masks to essential service front line health workers, but we've been in pandemic planning for a while. Has this been a sluggish distribution process? No. In fact, of course, in our national reserves ready for a pandemic at any time, we have 18 million masks, but five million masks are also held by DHBs. What we constantly need to do is make sure that that distribution through all of our health network continues at pace. And that's what that four million masks going out to those front line health workers is all about. In addition, New Zealand's in a very lucky position to also have a producer of masks in Whanganui. They produce 60,000 surgical masks a day, but also 40,000 of those specific masks that our health workers need. And that is daily and so that is a very useful resource for us to have. Dr Ashley Bloomfield's been saying that they had 200` I want to tighten up the distribution network. At the moment obviously DHBs are part of that. I do think that's an area where ` because I've heard of some DHBs saying that they may have in some cases run out ` there is no reason for that. We have good supply, so I do want to tighten up that distribution network. So, it has been a concern of front line health workers ` to the nurses, to people talking to us ` that DHBs say, 'The stock's coming, the stock's coming,' and that the cupboard is bare. So you can reassure them now that the cupboards won't be bare. Yeah, and as you can hear, we have the stock. I am again reiterating to those who are working on this operational side ` we've got to make sure that that distribution line continues, because, as you can hear, we've got the numbers ` we need to get it out to the front line. You've mentioned contact tracing before as well. Sir David Skegg, epidemiologist, says we need to be contact tracing like 1000 people a day. Are nurses doing that? Are the front line workers doing that? And should they be doing that? Yes. Or should it be other people? You raise a good point. We actually need multiple layers to our workforce for contact tracing. So yes, we're using our public health units that will have nurses involved, but there's actually a range of different parts of contact tracing that doesn't have to be done by a nurse. So we're building those teams. That capability keeps building as our cases grow. Just this morning` Just today, reassured by the Director-General of Health that we are keeping up with our contact tracing. It's a key part of a successful response to a pandemic like this and we are keeping up with it. So, who is going to be helping out? Is it the retired workforce that's being asked to volunteer? Yep. And if it is, does` We were already` If it is those people, the retired workforce, should they be coming back into those situations? Because we're asking the over-70s to isolate. Yep, and so retired workforce ` you will have heard the Director-General say roughly 2000 individuals who are in our retired health workforce who are putting their hands up to come and support these efforts. And so I leave it to Health on how those individuals are utilised, but of course they will be very mindful of making sure they do that in a safe way that doesn't put any of their health at risk. But the call centre work ` yes, we can continue to use our health workforce but also other people with experience in call centre work are the kinds of individuals we can and will use as we grow that workforce. Let's talk about the broader workforce. How seriously is the government considering a universal basic income to get the population through this? Well, at the moment you will have heard of course of the wage subsidy and the role that it's playing to support New Zealanders. So we've already had $2.7B paid out, which is benefiting 428,0000 workers. Of course, we continue to process applications we've had for that wage subsidy. So that's our key tool at the moment to keep people connected to their jobs. Sure, so a UBI's not on the table. So while the whole country's in self-isolation` So, in a way, this is providing a similar outcome. We want people to have an income while they're not actively working and stay connected to their job. So that's the key part. Because this is being paid out by an employer, it helps keep that connection to work. OK, what about` You have announced the provision for a mortgage holiday for mortgage holders. But what about a rent subsidy? There seems to be quite a call for that. If somebody is getting a wage subsidy of $585 and their rent is $500, what about a rent subsidy for them? So, obviously for mortgages, that's something that we worked alongside the banks to really encourage that to be offered and that's something that they are facilitating. But of course those mortgage holidays ` that does mean of course that those repayments do need to restart and that debt still exists. We're very mindful for people in rentals that what we don't want is them to be in a position where they ultimately are evicted because they're unable to meet their rental payments while they, for instance, may have reduced income. So we've said no evictions for this time, no rent increases and if arrears build up, evictions can't occur for within a 60-day period of arrears. So we've tried our best to also protect them. But there's no consideration of a rent subsidy? That's off the table for the moment? Again, we've done our best to try and protect those who are in rentals. Again, I would also hope for anyone, for anyone, who is currently a landlord to hear the message that is being sent by the government with the measures we've put in place to protect renters, that they in turn pass on the compassion that they might be experiencing from their bank with mortgage holidays. You've also had concern about employers not passing on the subsidy. Are you disappointed in the actions of some New Zealanders over these subsidies? It's not widespread concern, but we do have concern that there will be pockets and it is something that we will chase. Of course, as I've said, that wage subsidy needs to be passed on in its entirety to workers. If we find circumstances where that has not been the case, that is fraud. OK. Let's talk about the lockdown and the powers that the police have. You also have the power to bring in the Army. What would be the trigger for bringing the Army to help out? I don't anticipate being in a position where we would need to use something to that extent. The police, of course, have had an increase in their front line workforce. And it's their intention that that is what they will be utilising. I mean, that's something that New Zealanders are used to seeing. Now, our army in these circumstances you'd expect to be playing various different roles, but ultimately that operational side of enforcement is the role for the Commissioner of Police. And he will be assessing what needs they have and to what extent we may or may not be needing the Defence Force. But at this point, my expectation is that will primarily be the police. OK. Can I ask about people's only reason to leave their home at the moment. You want them to stay at home, but their only reason to leave is to go to the pharmacy or the supermarket. Why not get online shopping going a lot faster and a lot broader? You could bring in the army or somebody else like that to help out with those issues. If you want people to stay at home, online shopping is the answer. A pretty simple reason. For every purchase you make online, there's an entire workforce that has to service that. That's people that have to come into a warehouse, process your order, deliver your order. It's not just about the people who are staying at home. It's the people who then are brought into work. We need to reduce down everyone's contact with each other. Now, we accept that there are some essential lines and items that people need access to. Of course supermarkets will be the primary provider of that. But we have to reduce the number of people that are out in workplaces. And that means in contact with other people. How long is the lockdown going to continue? Do you have current modelling which says that it might be extended? It will all depend on the compliance of New Zealanders. We'll have a good idea as we go through the lockdown. I've continued to just warn New Zealanders ` don't be disheartened when you continue to see our numbers increase. I expect that we will have a number of cases and that those cases will grow steeply because of the lag with Covid. People who have it today, we won't know about for several days time. So you will see those numbers come up. Then we hope to see them come away. And that will be an indication to us of how well we're tracking. And what compliance level do we need and what compliance level are we at? Do you have any idea? High. High? 80%? 90%? It needs to be high. It needs to be high. We just can't tolerate anyone flouting the rules, because when someone does that, that's one more chain in transmission and it means all of us could end up in lockdown for longer. And what do you base that on` I ask everyone to play your part. That high expectation on? Because one person can transmit it to between three and five people. And you've seen variations in that transmission rate around the world, but one person then passing it on to that many people then passes it on again. We've got to break the chain and actually no one should consider themselves to be part of any tolerance for people not following the rules that every other New Zealander is. OK, so in two weeks time if we do get the cases to taper off, people will become blase and say, 'We've beaten it.' What are you going to do then? We simply cannot afford to do that. We've got to get through a cycle of transmission and really start to see some real results. If people do slacken up, my fear is that all that will do is set off another chain of transmission. So, I actually, though, Simon, I believe in New Zealanders. I believe that they know that this plan is here for a reason and it's to save lives. And I believe that they all know they have a part to play. And so I have faith in us as a nation to do this. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, thank you very much for your time. Thank you. Well, if you've got something to say about what you see on our show, please let us know. We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram ` NewshubNationNZ. Our you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. Still to come ` we dissect the week's political news with our panel. Plus, a GP married to a surgeon explains what it's like for a family on the Covid-19 front lines. Welcome back. So the prime minister has said the distribution of PPE to healthcare workers hasn't been good enough. It's being fixed, but meanwhile doctors and nurses have had weeks of anxiety. The availability of protective gear has been of such concern to front line health workers, Newshub Nation has been given a letter from them to release to health managers. It was written as the country entered lockdown, and it starts, 'Dear Health Manager', and says... ...and goes on to say, 'You tell us we can't wear masks. It might scare people. 'You tell us supply is no problem, but you share no plan. It's our turn not to believe you. 'We asked you to make escalation plan and practice them. 'You tell us, 'No practicing in masks. We can't waste them. 'Signed the front line health force.' Well, that's a fairly bleak message there. Sarah Dalton is from the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists and represents many of these doctors. I asked her whether her members felt the same way. There is a level of fear. There's a lot of anxiety. It's partly the fear of, you know, how bad it's gonna get and how quickly, but I think it's also informed by accounts by their colleagues overseas and, uh, what doctors and epidemiologists have reported from other countries. OK. Is that fear gonna be reassured by the ministry which has just prioritised who can and can't get PPE - Personal Protective Equipment ` and they're going to release four million masks next month. Is that reassuring for your members? Information is always reassuring, because it gives us something that we can talk about. Obviously we'll be looking to get some feedback from our members, and we're hoping to see something in writing to follow up from Ashley Bloomfield's comments earlier today. OK, but the timing of this prioritisation in relation to the pandemic; we've been in a pandemic for a while. Is this too late? Uh... it's hard for me to comment on that. Obviously the earlier the better, and we would probably say that New Zealand's health public function generally is not as well-resourced` wasn't as well-resourced prior to this as we would have liked it to have been, and that's certainly a piece of work, I think, for us to do once we're on the other side of this. So you're saying that the health system wasn't resourced enough to cope with the pandemic? Well, that's what we've been arguing for a long time now. And has anybody been listening to you? Well, apparently not. I think... (CHUCKLES) I mean, if you look at our GDP spend on health, it's a little bit lower than similar countries to us. We certainly think we should have more senior doctors in place that we currently do, and I think if you talk to other health sector unions, they will probably say similar things around, um, junior doctors nursing allied health. So you mention that your members look overseas and see what their colleagues are going through. What is it that makes them fearful from what they see overseas? I think particularly the experiences they've had in Italy and Spain where the number of cases and the number of intensive care cases took off at such a quick rate and spread so quickly, hospitals were literally overwhelmed, and I think for a lot of those doctors, they weren't really able to treat people. They simply had to sort people out, and a lot of those people died. I mean, it's horrific, and it's not the sort of thing we expect to happen these days. I hope that the measures that we've put in place, in terms of the lockdown, are gonna flatten that curve to the extent that that won't be something our doctors are faced with here. Yeah, do your members say to you that the DHBs are prepared for the coming spike in the next 10 days? I think it's variable, and there's always that worry with such a limited number of ICU beds that... there may not be enough. I know that the DHBs are winding back on, you know, all non-essential services, and they've been working hard in the last week or so to clear out space for potential incoming cases, and a couple of our emergency physicians have noted that in the last day or so, ED presentations have been lower than they're used to. OK, what about your members? I mean, apart from Personal Protective Equipment, what is concerning your doctors about being able to do the job, to be able to turn up every day? I`I'm talking about their families at home. Yeah, yeah, and that's what I was about to say as well. They're really worried about their loved ones. A lot of our members will have people who are in the vulnerable category ` either through age, or immune conditions, or existing health conditions, respiratory conditions ` so they want to know that they can come and go from work safely, that they're not gonna place their families at risk, and some of them have made the call that they need to self isolate and, kind of, leave their family bubble in order to, um, better protect them, and that's a tough call to make. But if you've got really little kids, they don't easily understand that it's not OK to hug Mum or Dad when they get home from work. OK, so if you were able to give the government one message from your members to the government, what would that be? Uh, keep the lockdown in place. Keep the information coming out as quickly as you possibly can, particularly to health workers, and to listen when doctors speak about matters of concern. Doctors don't panic. They are used to making tough decision and dealing, literally, with life and death situations. When they say something needs to be done, they are generally correct. Sarah Dalton, thank you very much for your time. Thank you. Well, my next guest is Sandhya Ramanathan. She's a GP in Grey Lynn, Auckland. Her husband is a surgeon. They're both on the front line. Sandhya works part time so she can care for their children, and she joins me now live. Thank you for your time this morning, Sandhya. What are the challenges of being a medical family with children in this` with covid-19? Uh... just as, um, your previous guest was saying, it's actually very challenging. The whole world is facing a new challenge, and we're all trying to rise to the occasion and fight it to the best of our abilities. Doctors, particularly, are assimilating a large volume of information, and they are at the same time trying to implement practices at work and at home in order to best protect the patients they're taking care of as well as their families. Let's talk about the family. I mean, you're potentially exposed to the virus every day, I guess, so what precautions are you taking? Just take me step by step through that. Well, um, it's pretty simple. We've all been told that we have to stay in our own protective bubble at home, and that means that, you know, you've got to minimise your contact outside of that bubble. In our situation, thankfully the government has ordered this lockdown, which has simplified matters such that at least our two children ` teenage children ` are at home, and that's, uh, helping the integrity of our bubble, but obviously my husband and I are leaving that bubble every day and going into high risk work environments, and so we have to take extra special precautions to make sure that we are not endangering` Sure. What` What are those precautions that you're taking? For example, um, as we were hearing that, you know, it has taken` it is still taking time for things like Personal Protective Equipment to feed down. We are hopeful that that will actually happen, but in the meantime, GPs I know are taking it upon themselves to source things like scrubs to wear at work or, you know, some sort of overalls etc to try and protect themselves, because there are a lot of processes. For example, we can't have anything on ourselves that could potentially carry the virus home, so we're taking our phones out of our cases. We're not even taking a pen to work. We're taking everything out of our wallet, and we're just basically ourselves alone going into work, and being very meticulous about, um, how we manage between patients. You know, cleaning our hands, and, you know, cleaning our equipment, the beds ` everything, and then when we leave the workplace, we again have to, pretty much, when we get home, have a designated station outside the house or in the garage where we basically undress, and in a very careful manner, decontaminate, and, uh, you know, wash our entire body and hair in hot water before we can even try and have any contact. Right. Yeah, so you have to go through all of that, and then how does that change your interaction and behaviour with the children? Look, it's challenging. It's been quite a lot to take in, and it's been a lot to take in while we've been very busy assimilating all the additional information. We actually have to have time to ourselves to put those practices in place at home. You know, making up those disinfectant solutions, and, um` and understanding that information, and so obviously we are lucky that our children are old enough to be able to understand that this is very important, but we do tell them to keep their distance. So we have, sort of, um... you know, for example, we are also` we're also acutely aware that we are a precious resource ` that, um... that we can't afford to be sick, because if we do get sick then that will increase the strain. You were just talking about the extent that where you had to` to go get scrubs and overalls. Where did you get overalls from? I mean, are you having to source your own things? I don't really know much about it all, so it was... It just happens that my older sister who lives in Perth in Western Australian is an anaesthetist, and she's a front line, um... She's a front line health care worker, and one of her jobs has been getting the Personal Protective Equipment organised, and even they are going` doctors are taking money out of their own pocket and sourcing equipment to try and test their masks are working, because everybody is afraid. So have you had to do the same kind of thing? Have you had to go to somewhere like Bunnings or somewhere else to get a mask, to get overalls? I went to work on Wednesday, and I, um... because I was pointed out that even if I'm taking my scrubs off, I should have an apron on the front to cover myself so that as I'm taking my scrub off, I'm not gonna contaminate my face if there's any covid on the front, so` so we've just bought some painting overalls to put over our scrubs so that at least the front is protected, and you just take that off and at least reduce some of that viral load, I suppose you could say, when I get into my car, because unlike hospitals, general practices don't have showers or, you know, locker rooms where you can basically change, so it's a bit of a logistical nightmare, and` and, you know, people in primary health are trying, and I think that's one of the problems is that we haven't received, you know, a good directive to say exactly how we can protect` protect ourselves, so not all GPs are wearing masks, and yes, there is a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment, and obviously the hospitals are always prioritised, and fair enough that they are on the front line, but currently a lot of the cases, the front line is actually in the community, and` and a lot of patients are asymptomatic, so just as we've been advised to act as if you have covid, we have to assume that every patient has covid, and that we potentially could also have covid, and we just may be asymptomatic, so, I mean, that does pose challenges. OK. All right, look, best of luck for the next four weeks and for the rest of the year. GP Sandhya Ramanathan, thank you very much for your time. Thank you. Thank you very much. Up next, our panel on the extraordinary news and politics of the week, plus a report on the great worker migration we are seeing as a result of New Zealand's lockdown. Welcome back` (CLEARS THROAT) Excuse me. I am joined now by our panel, political commentators from the left and the right, Neale Jones and Matthew Hooton. Thank you very much for joining us today from your homes. Good weather in Auckland and not-so-good in Wellington. Um, Matthew, you get the first question. Is the Prime Minister's messaging, which is, like, 'Stay home, save lives,' is that effective at the moment? Yes. I think the Prime Minister's picked that message up very strongly ` 'Stay home, save lives.' It's just four words and she's got that out pretty firmly across the country, and we're now even seeing that on the official ads that used to be about unite against COVID-19 which really didn't have any instruction element to them, but the Prime Minister has fixed that. So, Jacinda Ardern, Neale, is being the communicator we expect. Yeah, and look, I mean, if I can quote Lenin ` "There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen." And I think we've seen it this week ` these are unprecedented times. No-one has ever shut the country down before, no`one's ever done it in two days. I think that anyone in good faith would have to recognize that Jacinda Arden has done a remarkable job. And I think we've had remarkable goodwill in our community and remarkable resilience, and I think a lot of that comes down to leadership. I think you only have to look overseas to see the alternative. I mean, I talk to people I know in the US and Australia, they tell me people are confused, they're frightened, they're divided. And I think, you know, when you look at what we've got here, we've got a good political culture, we've got good political leadership, and we've got a good public service, and I think we're very lucky. OK, so, there are some people who aren't getting the message. The PM and the Finance Minister talking about those, sort of, flouting the rules. And what do you make of the Prime Minister, Matthew, saying that she wants the names of those people flouting the rules during press conferences? Yeah, I think that's an excellent idea. This is an enormous, almost disastrous economically disruption to everybody's lives. Um, we need it to work. And I think, um, the Prime Minister tends to focus on kindness and compassion and things like that. Which is fair enough. As leader of the country, I think we're also gonna need to see firmer messages from the likes of the Police Commissioner, and if necessary, the army. If people don't follow the rules, we're going to be in this lock-up not for 1 month, but for 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, months or beyond. So we're going to see the firm hand of the state, and appropriately so. OK. Do you think that this crisis is going to help Labour and Jacinda Ardern once we all get back to normal? Neale? Do I? No, it does. I don't think it matters. Oh, Sorry, Neale first. I don't think it matters right now, to be honest. I think at this time there is no Labour or National. There is the Prime Minister and the loyal opposition, and we get through the crisis. And I think anyone who is looking at the politics for partisan advantage right now is wrong. The PM has one job ` keep us safe, get us through this. What do you think, Matthew? I think that's absolutely correct. Um, you know, the question will it help her? You know, it is irrelevant, as Neale Says, and there's plenty of war leaders ` Churchill the most famous ` who led his country to victory and then was quickly turfed out by the voters. And there's plenty of examples the other way. I think in the end, we're not going to be holding an election until we're allowed outside for a sustained period of time. And when it comes to that election, hopefully this is behind us, largely, and the issues will be, you know, health, education, and repaying the billions and billions of dollars of debt, and that's what people will vote on in the end, one way or the other. OK, let's talk about preparedness. Can I just` Can I? Oh, sorry, yes, go on, Neale. Can I just say anyone who makes predictions at this stage as well is a charlatan? OK. (LAUGHS) (LAUGHS) We cannot tell now. Well, I'm definitely not gonna ask you for your crystal ball, then. Let's look retrospectively, then. Uh, Neale, do you think we got to Level 4 quickly enough in the country? Look, I think we can all look in hindsight, we can say we should have been here 2 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago, the reality is` There are two points I'd make, the first one is we have moved faster and further than any other country at this stage in the cycle, the second thing is if the Prime Minister had announced two or three weeks ago that she was going to shut down the country, close businesses, confine people to their houses and have the police roaming the streets and suspend parliament, people would have been bewildered and outraged. We live in a democracy, and you actually have to bring people with you. And I think that she actually managed to do that by stepping people through the process, explaining each point, what would trigger the change and what that would mean, so that by the point that we got to the lockdown, it wasn't absurd any more; It was the most blindingly obvious thing in the world. And if you look at a, you know, recent poll came out, showed 93% public support for what has happened. So, look, of course the best time to have done this was weeks ago. But I don't think that it could have been any faster than it did. And, so, Matthew, we've ended up with a State of Emergency. The government has increased power. Is this all warranted? Should parliament have been suspended, and should we have gone to this level? Uh, yes, I think it's entirely warranted. And, you know, in the future there will be fierce debates about whether the Prime Minister moved too fast or too slow. I totally agree with Neale's point that the public health advice is important, but for public health measures to work they have to be publicly supported. And so it is not wrong for a political leader to consider the politics with a small 'p' when they make their decisions on this. I mean, probably, a public health expert would have said we should have done this three weeks ago, but I endorse entirely what Neale said ` the politics, with a small 'p', are important too. We now do have extremely unusual powers. The Prime Minister has been given enormous power that has never held by a Prime Minister, really, in peace-time. The Prime Minister herself, to her credit, understands that that is dangerous. Companies exist to make profits, politicians exist to get more power for themselves, no matter how well intended. And the Prime Minister herself has recognised that risk and is working constructively with the leader of the opposition, with the new select committee. We should support the leader of the opposition too. When he critiques the government, even if we don't agree with his particular critique, it is vitally important that the opposition fulfils its role as well. And we need to be tolerant of that process as well. Sure. So, we're going to be talking to Simon Bridges shortly. Neale, do you agree that this role of Simon Bridges chairing this new select committee is the right way to go? I think it's crucial. It's a really important time to have an opposition. Not only because the government has extensive powers, unprecedented powers that need to have a check. Also the government won't get everything right. This is a very fast moving situation, they're moving quickly with incomplete information, doing their best. And there'll be things they get wrong, there'll be things they need to do better. And it's important that we have that critique. OK. I've been critical before, can I just say, about the National Party's response. I thought early on, they were overtly political and negative. But I do want to praise Simon Bridges and his team. in the last week they've played that role of constructive and critical, which I think is crucial. We need them to be not fearmongering, not turning it into a circus, but actually asking those questions that we need to keep the public safe. OK, so, look the Prime Minister you say is handling it very well, but there are gonna be bumps in the road, we've just had one where the health force workers are saying not enough PPE out there, and the Prime Minister's acknowledged that the distribution hasn't been good enough. Has she handled that quickly enough, Matthew? There have been all sorts of` I don't mean this in a terribly negative way, but yeah, fiascos, little fiascos behind the scenes. The worst one of those was the definition of essential services where you had MBIE officials being asked whether superettes were supermarkets and they decided, instead of just making a decision, that it was probably best to spend some time white-boarding questions like that. So, you know, as Neale says, things are not all going to go well. It is acceptable for the opposition to criticize and critique things that are not going, um, well. But we should be tolerant of the fact that that is just the reality in a situation like this. OK, a call for tolerance from Matthew Hooton, and for patience from Neale Jones. Thank you very much for your time this morning, Neale Jones and Matthew Hooton. All right, coming up, Simon Bridges live from Tauranga on how to run an opposition through a pandemic. Plus, a week like no other in the halls of power. Welcome back. Under level four lockdown, food producers are considered essential services, but many say they can't find enough staff, so it's giving an opportunity to the thousands of Kiwis in other industries who are losing their jobs. Connor Whitten has the story. Breaking the silence of a nationwide lockdown. The hum of a tractor is the only sound. They're among the country's essential workers ` farms and fields remaining busy keeping food on Kiwi's plates, and despite panic buying, there is no shortage. New Zealand could survive on potatoes alone. We produce around about half a billion kilos. That's 125 kilos per man, woman and child. Across food production, business is booming. We've had between 30 and 50% increase in demand from the supermarkets. Driven by Kiwis stocking up. There's plenty of food but a shortage of workers, as coronavirus fears keeps staff away. What we do need is labour and staff, and that's going to be the critical issue going forward ` that people feel confident about coming to work, that they feel safe coming to work. The nation's growers are still in business, but in the midst of a level four lockdown, business as usual has to change. There are strict safety measures, and at least 2m of social distance applies here too. But it's not enough to satisfy every worker. Newshub Nation understands some food producers have a third of their staff not turning up. We're concerned that we don't have adequate labour in the packhouses to continue to produce domestically, but also for export internationally, cos that's really important. That's on top of a shortage of migrant workers for crops like kiwifruit at a key time of year. With fruit now in season, growers and packers are frantically searching to find enough staff. We're probably running at maybe a half to two thirds of staff that we require. We require a lot more staff, and we're only one post-harvest facility sitting in the Bay of Plenty, so the area is desperate for more staff. But that shortage could be a lifeline to the growing number who have lost her jobs, like Margie McTainsh, an early childhood carer. Our services all got put on lockdown, and so, um... all my day care babies are staying at home. Now she works in the packhouse kitchen, grateful for whatever pays the bills. This time last week, I didn't think I was gonna be working in a packhouse, but here I am, and I'm enjoying it, and you've just gotta do what you've gotta do for your whanau, your friends. The food industry as a whole is thriving and supermarkets most of all. In the North Island alone, Pak'nSave and New World have hired 949 people in just the last two weeks. Roger Betham is one of those workers. Normally, he's a personal trainer, but no clients means no pay and a big financial risk. Four weeks is a lot of money that we lose, so I thought I better get out there and do something, and I knew I had a bit of background in the supermarket trade as well, so went and saw the local, um... I saw the owner of the local supermarket, and yeah, I'm helping them out. And the opportunities are desperately needed. Job site seek.co.nz is getting four times its normal traffic. Hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk as the economy grinds to a halt. 261,000 are employed in retail, but 185,000 of those are not at work. 133,000 more in hospitality ` another whole industry forced to stay home. Survey data from the Restaurant Association estimates 50,000 could lose their jobs. Add to that tourism, aviation, construction ` industry's fighting just to survive. And amidst an almost total lockdown, options for new jobs are slim,... (FORKLIFT BEEPS) ...but not here in the Bay of Plenty, where it takes no time at all. Took me half an hour, basically. I just sent a text message to, um` to the` human resources here, and yeah, half an hour later, I got a job offer. We're getting a constant stream of people calling in, but really, it's still not enough. The message the same across the industry. Go to the Work and Income, their local branch, ask them if they're available` if there are jobs available, and take up the opportunity of the work. There will be work there. We do need workers, and it will be an ongoing demand. Amid a crisis, Kiwi food is doing more than filling bellies. For some, it's also filling pockets in a time of desperate need. Connor Whitten reporting there. Stay with us. We're back after the break. Well, there's the politics and then there's the economics. We've got mortgage relief but no rent relief. We've got support for businesses but no UBI. What it will mean economically if lockdown is extended beyond 4 weeks? Here to try and answer some of these questions and more is economist Gareth Kiernan. Thank you for your time this morning. Gareth, how bad is it going to get? What are the numbers that you are predicting? Yeah, we're expecting a contraction in GDP of about 9-10% over the first six months of this year. And then we're not really sure at this stage how quickly the economy is going to bounce back out of that. We're taking a conservative view and looking at potentially 125 to 150 thousand job losses or more. You say 9-10% in the first six months of this year. Have we ever seen anything like that before? No, if you look back over the last 30 years in terms of the GDP numbers we've got, the biggest quarterly contraction has been between 2.5% and 3% over 6 months. Even in the Great Depression, the economy only shrunk by about 12% over the course of 2-3 years. So this is a very sharp and a very deep shock. Right, and so, if we look back at, you know, the GFC, we seem to have got through that with, like, unemployment rising not that much, but this is totally different. Why is it totally different? Well, at the moment, with the lockdown, of course, you've got businesses which are just simply not operating, you've got people who are not working, people are not spending either anywhere near as much as they could. So our estimates suggest the economy is probably at best only operating at about 65% of capacity once you take into account the fact that some people can work from home and then you've got the essential services on top of that. So that is a huge hit in terms of people and resources that our sitting idle at the moment. And the real issue coming out the other side is how many businesses are gonna be able to survive because of the massive constraint in terms of cash-flow at the moment, with those firms just not getting the revenue in. OK, look, you've done these figures. Are they calculated on lockdown ending in 4 weeks? I mean, if we get an extension, are you gonna have to revise those even further downwards? Yeah, that's right. So, look, every week that lockdown is extended you're talking another 2.5% off GDP, roughly. So every week of extended lockdown is another 2.5% of GDP? Effectively, yes. Cos you're not operating at anywhere near that full capacity, so it is big numbers, very, very big. So if the lockdown goes for 8 weeks instead of four weeks, we're talking a 20% drop in GDP? Yeah, that's right. And the most concerning thing about that is not necessarily the extent of that drop, it's what's left of that economy coming out the other side in terms of businesses and jobs and that sort of thing. The longer it's in lockdown, then the more difficult it is to get the economy going on the other side. OK, well, let's look about efforts to sustain the economy and sustain workers. What do you think of the government's response so far in terms of the wage subsidies, it's lifted the cap, it's rolled all the isolation payments into the wage subsidy. Is that enough of a stimulus? I don't know if anything is enough of a stimulus at the moment. But, look, it's a big step in the right direction in terms of the work they've done there trying to make sure that people's jobs are maintained, taking some of that cashflow pressure off businesses in terms of, you know, wages or expenses that sort of need to keep being paid, otherwise you lay off the staff. And, you know, there's no sort of business or jobs at the other side. That's a great start, with the mortgage repayment holiday as well in terms of helping people who maybe are going to be losing their jobs, or certainly their incomes are under pressure. That's also good in terms of taking some of that hit that the housing market might otherwise take because we know that as people lose their jobs, that's when people start to get the forced sales and prices really being driven down. But even with that, we're gonna see the housing market take a big hit, aren't we? I think you're delaying the hit to the housing market, but yes, you look forward. If you've got unemployment sitting at 10% in a years time, presumably the mortgage repayment holidays will be over by then. That's when the pressure will come on the housing market, and we are expecting to see price falls of 5-10% if not greater. So, 5-10% price falls once the mortgage holiday is off, and we possibly could see that's when the mortgaging sales kick in. Yeah, that's right. I mean, if you're able to take holiday in the meantime with your repayments, then you're not forced to sell. But we think it, you know, it's a couple of years, really, before the economy potentially turns around and, you know, new jobs start to be created. Can I just ask, you know, we've got the mortgage holiday, but what about rent subsidy, or a rent holiday? The Government doesn't seem to be keen on that, it's just said no rent rises and no evictions. Could it possibly do a rent subsidy? Uh, there's a bit of scope in there for something to be done. Obviously in terms of that renting space, you know, there's stuff such as the accommodation supplement and support in there anyway. I think the issue or the difference between the sort-of home-ownership side of things and the renting side of things, with them, if they lose their jobs, they'll be forced to sell their house, then that has broader economic ramifications. I'm not trying to downplay the personal financial ramifications of people who can't meet their rent, cos there are obviously issues there which the government probably is thinking about as we speak, but it doesn't quite have the same broader flow-on effects on the economy if people aren't able to pay their rent as opposed to not be able to pay their mortgage. OK, so, finally, economists don't have a crystal ball, but we do ask you to look into one anyway. Any idea what the economic landscape is gonna look like in 6 months? In 6 months time, look, it'll probably be at it's most painful, I'd suggest. We've taken a pretty conservative view in terms of when the economy might really start recovering, and that may not well be until the second half of next year, so I think, yeah, you talk about it in six months time. Even if the lockdown is only four weeks, we'd be expecting that to be some of the most difficult times for both households and businesses as those job-losses start to mount up. Ever-changing times. Gareth Kiernan, thank you so much for your time this morning. Great, thank you. And that is all from us for now. Thank you for watching, stay safe in your bubble and we will see you again next week. Captions by Annie Curtis, Joshua Tait and John Gibbs. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020