Today, on Newshub Nation ` fresh from a charm offensive in the Australian media, Foreign Minister Winston Peters on New Zealand's post-pandemic place in the world. Are you finding level three lockdown anti-climactic? Psychologist Jacqui Maguire on how to play the long game. We check in with digital editor Finn Hogan on who's up and who's down in party politics online. Is our government dragging its heels on a vaccine? Conor Whitten investigates. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 Kia ora, good morning. I'm Simon Shepherd and welcome to Newshub Nation. In political news this week ` final details of the Cannabis Legislation and Control Bill have been released, in advance of a referendum later this year. New details include a ban on items designed to appeal to young people, and a four-year prison sentence for anyone selling cannabis to under-20s. COVID-19 cases globally have now passed three million and total deaths are approaching 250,000. In the US, still the global epicentre of the pandemic, 64,000 have died. Despite the death toll, several states are planning to lift lockdown restrictions in the coming days. In New Zealand, there were only eight new confirmed cases of COVID-19 during our first week of level three. Non-essential businesses, including takeaways and cafes, can now operate, with the government claiming 75% of our economy is now back in operation. In our top story today, Kiwi scientists and researchers are urging the government to back a national COVID-19 vaccine programme, or risk waiting at the back of the queue. They've asked for help, but a decision could be weeks away. Here's Conor Whitten with his investigation. As Kiwis return to work by the thousands and new case numbers inch closer to zero, ever-so-slowly, hope is growing that COVID-19 is almost contained. Alert level three has brought small new freedoms. But before life can resume as normal, scientists say one thing is essential ` New Zealand will need a COVID vaccine. It's fundamentally important for our survival as a nation, our health and well-being, our economic future. It's the only way New Zealanders can leave the country, it's the only way we can actually have people coming as tourists. We need a vaccine for our nation to survive. Inside laboratories across the country, New Zealand's scientists are already preparing to design, test and make a vaccine. It may seem a long shot for a small island nation, but a home-grown vaccine could be vital. Even if one is developed elsewhere, we may not be able to buy or produce it without being involved ourselves. Because the whole world wants its hands on a cure. If that solution is found overseas, how long might we wait to see it? Unfortunately, we may be at the end of a very long queue. Because, at the end of the day, a lot of nations, they'll think of their own interests first. They've got people dying of this virus. They'll want to vaccinate and protect themselves first. Overseas, work is well underway on more than 100 possible vaccines. And some are already at human trials. The University of Oxford began tests in late April. Already, hopes are high for success. I'm very optimistic it's going to work. Formally, we are testing it in an efficacy study. And we have to find out if it works. But even if scientists find a breakthrough, demand for a vaccine could outstrip supply. The world will need billions of doses, and whether it's a Kiwi or foreign recipe, New Zealand may have to make its own. It just doesn't get served up to you on a plate. Not when there's a global crisis. In the Malaghan Institute, work is well underway. Pre-clinical trials could begin within months. They're used to dealing with infectious diseases ` samples of virus stored in freezers, chilled to negative 70 degrees. And that's some virus there that we can use to find out how to make a vaccine. And soon, they'll hold the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the pathogen causing COVID-19. And within a few months, it'll be COVID-19 virus within those vials? COVID-19 virus, absolutely ` and then we'll start testing and immunising, and unleashing hell on it with a vaccine. The virus itself is grown in Dunedin, at the University of Otago's high-security lab. It's dangerous work with strict protections. Scientists working to isolate the virus. Once they do, trials can begin. Not only will that help to accelerate that global search for a vaccine, but it will also place us well for understanding how any vaccine that is developed, wherever it is developed, works. And what we might need to locally produce that vaccine. But researchers say much more is needed for efforts like this to succeed. Investment from government and a national strategy to secure a COVID vaccine. This is a national crisis. It needs a national response. It needs a governmental response. We need Ministry of Health involvement, advice and guidance. We're the scientists. We'll play our role, but we need an overall structure to work within so it's actually ultimately made to be successful. A group of the country's top researchers and scientists have put a $10m proposal to government for a national effort towards a vaccine. Many tell Newshub Nation they're hopeful a positive answer could come next week. It would start with plans to test the best vaccines, produced either here or overseas. And to lay to the crucial groundwork that will enable us to manufacture our own. Look, without that ongoing support for the long and hard work that is required to develop therapeutics or vaccines, we're just gonna be delayed in progress. The Minister for Research, Science and Innovation, Megan Woods, says the strategy is still in development. An announcement's expected in the coming weeks, but before that, some projects may be funded short-term. But just what shape that will take is in question. Director General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield, says New Zealand can't go it alone. We're not anticipating New Zealand's best endeavours are to put funding and effort into trying to develop a vaccine, but rather to work alongside other vaccine developers. Graham Le Gros believes we can do it. We've got some of the best vaccine researchers in the world here in New Zealand. We just need to empower them, get them on with it. We have connections with some of the leading vaccine research companies, the leading vaccine research institutions overseas. Let's pull some strings. But he says action is needed fast. Right now. Yesterday. I'm a yesterday guy. We need to be engaged now. Even the most optimistic projections say a vaccine could take 18 months. Is that realistic? Do you think we'll get there? To roll out a population-wide vaccine in New Zealand and the Pacific, it's gonna take much longer than 18 months. So if you put that framework on your economy and our ability to move and do things, we're in trouble. So we need to make this thing happen as quickly as possible. Every day wasted could prolong the pandemic. In the race to develop and produce a vaccine, Kiwi researchers are raring to go. Conor Whitten reporting there. If you've got something to say about what you see on our show, please let us know. We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram ` NewshubNationNZ. Our Twitter panel this morning ` Bevan Chuang and Lewis Holden. They're using the hashtag #NationNZ. Or you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. But still to come, we dissect the week's news and politics with our panel. Plus, Professor Anne-Marie Brady on a trans-Tasman- Pacific-Taiwanese-South Korean bubble. Welcome back. Foreign Affairs Minister, Winston Peters, emerged from far north lockdown this week and straight into the headlines. He outlined his vision for New Zealand post-COVID-19 and the case for creating a trans-Tasman bubble. Winston Peters joins me now from Whananaki. Good morning, Minister. Thanks for your time. Just checking that` Good morning. Good morning. Great. A bubble with Australia, can you tell me how that would work? Because we're doing so well ` and I've got to tell ya, I've got feedback coming into this phone at the moment. Feedback coming into your phone, right. If somebody could fix that up. But because we are doing so well against COVID-19, it is possible for us in a neutral sense to have a shared border in the event of us making sure that our border security is first rate in both countries. Can I ask, what are we waiting for? What is the one thing that would allow us to get this up and running? The assurance that when we do open this up, we nevertheless keep outside of our country COVID-19 and don't get careless at the border to allow it in. Whose call is that? Is it ours? It'll be worked on it together between Foreign Affairs New Zealand and Foreign Affairs Australia. It's the call, I think, of both administrations, but we're working on it at this point in time to see what can be done as soon as possible to reopen our markets. After all, for so many of our business-people, particularly small business, Australia is a big market for New Zealand and vice versa for Australia. When it comes to tourism, 55% of the tourists coming to New Zealand have been Australian. And we're Australia's second biggest tourist numbers going to Australia. So you can see the mutuality of opening up this economic lifeline together as fast as possible. Sure. Are the Warriors the first people trying to do this trans-Tasman bubble? Are you trying to help them get over there? Well, it's strange you say that, because they are, at this point in time, they have still to get the permission of the administration, but I hope they get it by this Friday. OK. Could we expand the bubble to other that are, to quote you, 'beating the crap out of COVID?' Yes, we could, provided we are certain that their border security is safe as well. Now, if you were to, for example, include the Cook Islands or, dare I say it, Samoa, you'd still be concerned to ensure their port or maritime and aviation access was as secure as ours. But it is a possibility, yes. What about going broader into Asia, like South Korea or Taiwan? Well, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore ` they're definite possibilities. But, again, it's all down to some serious preparatory work so that we are sure every population involved in this arrangement the utmost standards of safety. What about China, Minister? Now, China is only reporting a few new cases each day. Why not a COVID bubble with China? They are our biggest trading partner. Well, it's a pretty big reach to conceive of that being possible at this point in time. Given that this COVID-19 came out of China, I do not think that we are capable, at this point in time give our side, of contemplating such an arrangement with any surety at all. With any surety? So do you not trust China is either reporting the correct numbers or has tight enough borders? No, I'm not saying that. Excepting that I do note that very shortly` not so long ago, they just doubled their numbers with respect to Wuhan itself. They raised it, sorry, not by double. They raised it by 50%. So it's not about not trusting their numbers. But our job is to ensure that we've done everything we possibly can to protect the health of the New Zealand people. China makes sense, though, doesn't it? Because our economy seems to depend so much on it. Well, it makes sense in the context that previous administrations have made a terrible mistake of putting all their eggs in one basket. They oldest adage in the book is not to put all your eggs in one basket. But economically, that's what we did. One product ` milk. One company ` Fonterra. And one market ` China. And we all know what happened to Fonterra. Instead of adding value and broadening our markets and maximising our milk value in New Zealand before we send it off-shore, we did the reverse. I hope that some of the lessons that some of us have been talking to New Zealanders about for a long time now are finally learnt in 2020. Are you proposing to pivot away from China? No, I'm proposing that we learn from our lessons to massively broaden our markets to ensure that we're not dependent on any one market. That has always been a wise strategy. Why on earth has previous administrations foolishly gone down this line? Here we are under the COVID-19 disastrous explosion around the world, learning the dangers of such thinking. I hope that there's an admission of that mistake and that we'd have learnt from it, so that we do not, as we try and come out of this COVID-19 economic disaster, spend time going down fruitless paths. OK. Can I ask, is that why you're not concerned about kickback from joining an investigation, with Australia, into the origins of COVID-19? Because you're not worried about annoying China? Well, it's not a matter of annoying anybody. It is illogical and irrational not to think that a malignancy that has cost and will cost millions of lives has us so numbed to reality that we don't bother internationally to find out how this happened. How can we possibly look the victims' families in the face and say we didn't care? Now, let me just say this, there's a parallel to that when the global financial crisis happened in 2008, some of us were calling for a full-scale investigation as to how that happened. It was swept under the carpet. The economic cost went on for a decade. And we again are now in a different circumstance asking properly for an inquiry as to what happened, so that we might learn the lessons for the future. I mean, Australia got a frosty reception and, as you say, previous administrations have built our trade on China. Australia got a frosty reception when it proposed this inquiry, and you're not worried at all about any kickback? And a lot of people's livelihoods depend on that trade with China. I say again, where's the logic, the rationality or the sanity in having a massive loss of life crisis like this, with devastation to the economies of the world, without we stop and say, 'How did this happen?' OK. That's what I've said from day one. And that's what I believe is the only sound course of action to take. All right. This week, Prime Minister` sorry, Deputy Prime Minister. My apologies. When you returned to parliament, you outlined three areas you want to see New Zealand focus on. One of those is manufacturing, saying that if you can manufacture something within 15% of the global price, it should be made here. But that's been tried before. And to protect those industries that you make here, you would have to tax imports. Is that what you're proposing? No, it's not been tried. It's not been tried before in the way that you say. Or when you say that it's been tried before, well, yes, when we were number two or three in the world it was successfully tried before. Before in 1984 along came this unparalleled neoliberal experiment and threw every lesson of our success out the window. And the cost for us has been huge. The Australians at the same time in 1984 went down the pathway of incremental change. We threw the baby out with the bathwater. Australia, in real terms, has grown 36% larger than us. That's the mistake we made. And it's high time we started recognising it. Right, OK. So, just yes or no, would you have to tax imports to protect local industry? Is that what you're proposing? No. You buy New Zealand-made. Here's the point` But would people` People won't buy New Zealand-made if it's more expensive. If it's more expensive, people won't buy New Zealand-made. I'm trying to answer that question. I knew you'd say that. But, as the economist Berle pointed out some considerable time ago, if it's within 15% of the overseas price, and given that the money and the contract will be spent in our economy and not in a foreign economy it makes rational economic sense to buy New Zealand-made. That's my point. OK. In your speech, you outlined other policies which you've outlined before, like putting up the shutters to more off-shore ownership and if a job can be filled by a New Zealanders. These kinds of points you've made before, and you've come out and said them again, and you've done the rounds of media. Are you speaking out because you feel that you've been side-lined in the last five weeks, while the Prime Minister has been dealing with COVID-19? No. I'm speaking out because I'm looking very hard at this country's last 35-year history. I'm looking at the people who have had power to have taken us to a situation that when the COVID-19 crisis hit, we were so open to being exposed. We didn't have the utilities to protect ourselves. As I said, we once used to have four major pharmaceutical companies. One of them was Glaxo. We didn't reinvest in those sorts of companies and that sort of manufacturing. And that's the price we're paying when we see what's happening now. My point is, they ran down manufacturing, they ran down exporting and they ran down New Zealand-made. OK. Now, in 2020, I hope we've learnt something. I would say, can I point out that you seem to be trying to differentiate yourself and there's a couple of examples this week, you spoke out talking about closing the borders. You told the Prime Minister you were going to do that, but nobody else had raised that. And secondly, you touted the tourism of Australia coming in under level two. Both things the government hadn't, or the Labour Party and the government hadn't really put on the table. Why did you do that? Well, two weeks ago I talked about the possibility of a Pacific or Australasian bubble. And I asked my people to do some work on it with the Australians. So I'm trying to put some flesh around it. It is possible to fly a plane out of Australia going to Queenstown, load it up for a ski trip that is safe. We've gotta start thinking now inside and outside of the square, rather than sit back and think that somehow these things will unfold by themselves. We need to be thinking laterally, outside the square and critically as possible, because our economy depends upon it. All right, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, thank you very much for your time this morning. Thank you very much. All right, Winston Peters there. Listening to that was Professor Anne-Marie Brady, a specialist in Chinese politics, Pacific politics and New Zealand foreign policy. Anne-Marie, thank you for joining us this morning. The Foreign Minister there was keen on the trans-Tasman bubble, but you're suggesting that we broaden it out to Taiwan. Why are you suggesting that? I call it a bubble alliance. And not just Taiwan. Obviously we've got to first of all work with Australia as the Deputy Prime Minister said. We need to get in place very strict protocols for a post-COVID-19 situation in our country, as well as in Australia. We need to agree on that and they need to be very strict. Australia's already talking to Vanuatu. We should be, and Mr Peters did mention, the Cook Islands and the other realm nations of Niue and Tokelau, who we have a special relationship with. But beyond that, the country that's actually done the best in managing COVID-19 is Taiwan. And they're an economic powerhouse. They're our eighth biggest trading partner. And in the past they've actually been more important to us economically than the People's Republic of China. We need to form a strategic alliance with like-minded states right now ` an economic and a political alliance for this very difficult post-COVID global order. We need to hedge. We cannot have all our goods, or a majority of our goods, for example, 42% of logging going towards one market ` China. Right. That's not safe. We've known this since Britain went into the European Community in 1973. We know that that is not a good strategy and that we need to lean into other relationships now for long-term reasons. Which other states ` can you list them? Who should we be lining up? Well, we are actually in negotiations at the moment with Britain and the EU and the US for a free trade agreement. And I think there's more appetite than ever before for those partners ` the signals I'm getting back, people who are contacting me ` there's more appetite than before. More momentum to get to a meaningful agreement there. But in general, we should be, as Foreign Minister Peters said, hedging and we need to pull close to other countries and look for opportunities. And I really urge our exporters to go beyond what they have been doing before. I've talked to NZTE early this year. They said that they were very keen for our exporters to not to be always going into` looking into the China market, to go beyond that. But they find it hard for the exporters to take the initiative to do so. So it's not just about buying New Zealand-made. It's about New Zealand go outwards ` look outwards. Sure. So, you've mentioned the EU, Britain, the US. A couple of those places, they're looking inward at the moment. They're not looking at free trade agreements. Who closer to home would form a strategic alliance so we are more independent? Well, as I said, in fact, we are currently in negotiations. MFAT, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, even during lockdown level 4, were in negotiations with the EU, so those negotiations carry on. But there's another really interesting development that's happened that our wonderful trade diplomats have been working on. That's a strategic alliance with Singapore ` a plurilateral agreement that has already spread to six other countries. And that's about supply chains. Cos we're not talking about how things worked a few months ago. We're in a completely different global order. So supply chains are crucial. And the countries who can support each other and keeping those supply chains together, the relationship can expand beyond that. So I'm saying that our bubble alliance should focus on economic and political links to countries that are willing to guarantee supply chains to New Zealand and mutually, particularly on essential goods. We've actually only got a couple of weeks' supply of PPE. That's what David Clark said only a couple of weeks ago. And the news has been that China is actually delaying or prohibiting exports of PPE to New Zealand, so that's not good. They're also blocking our Hong Kong representative from taking up his normal appointment. And they're doing the same to Australia. So, are you saying the` So they are already punishing us. We've gotta lean into other relationships and balance against this pressure. All right. So, the Foreign Minister also seems to be talking about harking back to a more golden era of New Zealand, saying manufacture local and buy New Zealand-made. Is that too insular? There will be products, as in the story you had just before you spoke to Foreign Minister Peters, you talked about a virus that it would be wise if New Zealand produced a virus against COVID-19 itself, we couldn't just wait for it to be handed to us. Vaccine, yes. The whole world needs this` Sorry, the vaccine. Yeah, the vaccine. We need our own vaccine. We need to produce our own vaccine. So there will be strategic products that it would be wise for us to produce ourselves. Again, here's an example from Taiwan of why they've done so well in managing COVID-19. As soon as they got the news of this new virus that's coming out of China, they instituted strict protocols on immigration, they did contact tracing, and then they got six manufacturers in Taiwan to start making PPE. And they even got the army to do it so very quickly they could start handing out masks to everybody in China and they were rationed and even foreigners were able to get them. They're a population of 26 million. That's where it's sensible, sometimes, to make those strategic decisions... Sure. ...about what you're gonna manufacture. Is it a strategic decision to suddenly pivot away from` or, not suddenly, but move away from China, which has become such an integral part of our economy and the exporters depend upon? We can't just pivot on a dime and say, 'That's it with China.' We wouldn't pivot away. Not at all. I've always been arguing we engage with China as much as possible. But we address the risks. And right now we're getting a risk of PPE apparently is being denied to us, and our diplomatic representative in Hong Kong is not being recognised by China, so that's an example of the risks. So we engage as much as we can. We continue to export, but we look to other markets. That's absolutely common sense to broaden and hedge. And that is, in fact, what our trade diplomats have been doing for years. That's what TPP was all about. Sure. Just finally, why can't the COVID bubble include all those states you're talking about, but include China as well? Do you not` You say that China's punishing us for certain decisions. Do you not trust the situation in China, the numbers being reported out of there? What is the problem? A bubble alliance ` an alliance of COVID-free states ` would have to have very strict health protocols in place. You'd have to have a trusted relationship with that country ` that you could absolutely trust their numbers and absolutely trust their ability to manage any outbreaks in their country. Well, you'd assess it on a country-by-country basis. So New Zealand never excludes any country from all our trade negotiations and other strategic relationships, we just ask that countries follow the protocols that we think of as a bottom line. OK, Professor Anne-Marie Brady, thank you so much for your time this morning. My pleasure. Coming up ` Digital Editor Finn Hogan on who's up and who's down in party politics online. Plus, the panel on the news and politics of the week. Welcome back. I am joined now by our panel, Dr Lara Greaves from Auckland University's school of politics, and Public Policy Specialist at Senate SHJ Marg Joiner. Thank you very much for joining me this morning. First to you Marg, out of lockdown and into the limelight, is he just trying to boost his party's profile after a stint on the sidelines? Yeah, wouldn't you? I mean, this is a well-worn path for New Zealand First and its leader Winston Peters. There's a nice symmetry in that you'll remember when he entered the term back in 2017, he talked about capitalism needing to regain its responsibility, a human face. So this a well-worn path for New Zealand First, and the vision he set out in parliament this week about 'buy local, employ local, invest local,' this is all what has been talked about by the party for 20-odd years, and it's underpinned by a distrust of capitalism, distrust of globalization, and, now more than ever, perhaps that's got some traction with voters. Whether that's sustainable or not is a question. Yeah, Lara Greaves, I mean, is this perfect time for New Zealand First to come out with this agenda? We're all going, 'Well, we can't trust everybody overseas, let's just do it within New Zealand.' Yeah, I think that it is. And I think that it's really interesting, because you listen to, say, Professor Brady. And just the idea of opening our borders at this point, I mean, I'm like everyone else. We've been, kind of, at home, kind of staying at home and really quite fearful and afraid of this virus, right? So just that idea of opening our borders kind of seems a bit freaky to us, right? And a bit nerve-wracking. So I think it's, like, really good timing to be able to pick up on that kind of sentiment. And it is really tough for him at the moment, because Ardern is doing so well in the polls and so well in any research at the moment, and he really does need to shore up some kind of voter base going into the election, which is looking to be on for the next four months time, so... Yeah, interesting tactics this week, but we shouldn't be surprised, Marg, I mean he came out and said, you know, revealed the border closure proposal by the Ministry of Health, and then he touted Australian tourists flying into Queenstown on Level 2 when we can't actually at the moment travel anywhere on level 2. Is that classic Winston just going off-script or putting a poke into the Prime Minister, saying, 'Here I am.' Well, I think it's very on-script for him and for the party in an election year. And just picking up on Lara's point about the popularity of the Prime Minister and Labour in the recent poll, we've got to remember that polls are a snapshot in time, and this has been one month in lockdown. We look at the psychology of being in lockdown, and five months down the track, that sentiment may have changed. The poll that came out last week was a fair reflection of the excellent job the government has done, particularly the Prime Minister, but that sentiment may change as we start to see some of the economic fallout and the social challenges that come with that. Yeah, I mean, let's talk about that poll, you bring it up. It was a UMR poll done for Labour, Lara, I mean, do you place any credibility on it? Well, generally UMR polls do tend to show Labour in a positive light. And those polls suspiciously always seem to leak when Labour is doing well. But if you look at` And we haven't seen a Reid Research or Colmar Brunton poll, so that will be the real kicker, like, what happens on that trend line. But basically` I mean, I'm a political psychologist by training, and after any kind of crisis ` so we saw this after 9/11, we saw this after, more locally, after the earthquakes, after the terrorist attack, the incumbent government tends to get a boost in the polls. It's call the 'rallying around the flag' effect. And we know that timing is everything in politics, so at the moment, I think Marg's completely right, we have to see what happens over time in terms of these polls and I think it will be really good to see, sort of, that same poll from someone like Newshub/Reid Research to see what the results are there. So does that mean, Marg, that the other shock statistic from this particular poll, Labour at 55%, National at 29%, would Simon Bridges be looking at that going, 'Oh, I'm in trouble.' Well, I think the entire caucus will be looking at the numbers, but also, this is just one poll of many, so now more than ever, political leaders will be looking at where voter sentiment is headed. This is such a fast-changing environment, and it's important more than ever that they stay in tune with the electorate sentiment. OK, you looked before, Lara, about the idea of coming out of the bubble, and we've all been sort of locked down and a little bit fearful of expanding our horizons, and yet there's all this talk about, 'OK, let's not just go with Australia, 'let's go with the Pacific, oh, how about Taiwan?' Do you think that we are ready for that? I think that in order to be able to do that there would need to be some more education around, like, just Taiwan generally. I don't think everyday New Zealanders really think about Taiwan on a day-to-day basis, or know much about Taiwan. I mean, last night I was googling it to try to see what do we know about Taiwan. And I mean there's this great thing when Austronesian languages, Austronesian Language Family or whatever that Maori` They know through that research that Maori and Pacifica ` we kind of come from there. So that'll be kind of cool to sort of learn more about that and New Zealanders to get to know that Taiwan is actually quite like us and there's no need to be afraid of places like Taiwan. And I think just that idea of more diverse out-groups, or people perhaps are viewed as more different to us in values, that's kind of something in political psychology ` you need to get over that hump in order to build trust. At the moment, most New Zealanders trust Australia and most New Zealanders have whanau in Australia, everyone's got an auntie over on the Gold Coast, so you've kind of got that relationship there already. But I think further afield places we would need to kind of introduce that more slowly and kind of get people used to that idea. Yeah, the other thing which interests me is that, you know, China says that it's only reporting a few cases each day, sort of like us, sort of like Australia. It would make sense on paper, their being our biggest export market, that we should join a bubble with them, Marg, but that doesn't seem to be on the table with the Foreign Minister at the moment. Yeah, and I think it's important, you know, picking up on what Lara said about how we feel scared as a nation, perhaps, and it's important that we have Australia and the Pacific on the table now, because they will become very important to us. And it's a no-brainer, as the Deputy Prime Minister said, in terms of the synergies between our markets and what that would do for our tourism and hospitality industries if we were to open up that bubble. But, again, as he said, it's a long way off and we need the assurances in order to go forward with that. But there's merit in having that idea on the table now. Yeah, but should we be looking further afield? I mean, because it's about getting the economy kick-started again and we're so dependant on China. Yes, China, and also we have free trade agreements with Korea, Singapore and others. So perhaps, this is now where we look at deepening those relationships. And as Lara said, there's a good opportunity here for New Zealanders to increase their knowledge and understanding and familiarity with these neighbours of ours. I just wonder whether you think that, you know, psychologically as a nation we've just come into Level 3, and we're sort of, you know, feeling our way, is the idea of a trans-Tasman bubble and the one with the Pacific sort of like a comfort bubble? We're OK with doing that, Lara. Yeah, so I feel, again, like I was saying before that we're kind of quite close to those countries already. And that will potentially be a good first step, but I think it has to be sold to the public in a way that people are comfortable with. And I think I've seen bits and pieces of polls ` again, it'd be great to get some high-quality polls to come out ` but all of this stuff needs to be done in a more gradual, sort of, phased thing. That being said, people are hurting financially, and over time people will be hurting more financially and potentially will be more open to that. All right, uh, Marg, do you think that people will be open to that sooner rather than later? I thought that people would be gagging for it. Well, that's something that I'm sure the politicians will be polling on. Because, again, it's about getting the sentiment right, and we are going through such a rollercoaster of emotions as a nation. If you think about where we were at when the first COVID-19 case was detected and where we are today in such a small space of time, so it's important to stay in tune with that. All right, Lara Greaves and Marg Joiner, thank you so much for your time this morning. Right, we came out of Level 4, did it change your life? Or did you feel, 'Oh, it's a little bit anti-climactic.' Do you have friends who normally suffer from anxiety but seem perfectly calm now there is an actual crisis going on. Have you wondered what the long-term effects of lockdown will be when we look back 20 years from now? Here to answer some of those questions is clinical psychologist Jacqui Maguire. Jacqui, thank you very much for your time this morning. Thanks for having me. No problem, thanks for being here. We've gone from four to three, physical distancing seems to have slightly gone out the window if you look at the takeaway shops. Are we being complacent now? Has the fear been replaced by the complacency? Well, I think there is a psychological difference between a level 4 national lockdown where we're all in this together, and when we look at level 4, we had a common fate, in terms of we were all facing the fear of the virus together, and we had a common goal to protect each other. We've now shifted to Level 3, and I think that brings a number of complexities. One, we're fragmented. Some people are off to work and others are still staying at home. So we're split as a country. We've had words like elimination used in the media, and for the average Joe Blogg in New Zealand, is there a difference between elimination, eradication? And is there this sense that we've already beaten the virus? And therefore can't we just get on with life as normal? And I think also in Level 4 we were all very committed to following the rules. People would cross the street to avoid other people, even if they wave and say hello. And as you now look at takeaway bars where everyone is huddled together, there's something called 'social proof' which basically means if you're doing it, it must be OK and it must be right. So if I can see it, I can do it too. So I think there are a lot of layers going on in terms of why we have seen a psychological shift in attitude and behaviour in the last few days. OK. What would happen if, because of this behaviour, we actually had to go back to level 4? Would we be able to handle that? Well, I think New Zealand, and the way I've written about it in the last week, are I think there are cohorts of people. I think transitioning out of level 4, there are those that are ecstatic about it, that they can get some glimpse of normal life. And I think that cohort, having to go back into level 4 would be quite damaging for them. It would be like you running a marathon and you get to the last 100m, and then you have to go back and start again. I think there are another cohort of people whose anxiety has actually risen in level 3 because the rules aren't being followed perhaps as much as before, they may not believe that we've got this under control, and therefore seeing social-distancing rules being broken has made them really fearful. So for that cohort it might be quite comforting. I think there are also another group of New Zealanders, and worldwide, who have really enjoyed lockdown in a way. It's given them a chance to pause, to break the hustle culture, and to kind of re-prioritize and reflect on their life. And so I know that there are cohorts of people here that potentially are grieving about coming out of level 4. (LAUGHS) So I think it's not a black and white answer, actually, in terms of how people will manage that. All right, well let's talk about` Oh, sorry. What is important is the communication is clear, sorry, so in terms of our directorate and our communication from government, from Dr Ashley Bloomfield, we know that has to be very transparent, and clear, and if there are decisions made on that, to be upfront with us about that so we can come along the journey with them. OK, so, you talked about all sorts of cohorts of people. But what about the cohort of people that have found lockdown really hard, and they're looking to the future, their jobs under threat, financial stress. What are the effects of lockdown that are coming to you, that you are seeing. Yeah. So I've been labelling that 'crisis within a crisis.' Because we've got impacts that come from quarantining more than 10 days, that's historic research from quarantine around SARS, and Ebola, etcetera. We also have research from economic recessions. And we've got those two colliding at the moment. So, yes, particularly those people that are vulnerable, so they have prior mental illness, they may have immune compromised, but also those that have lost their roles at the moment, or their jobs, that's quite a scary prospect as we look into the future for those people. Because we know that that can increase rates of anxiety and depression. Alcohol abuse goes up with economic recessions and job-loss, which then can in turn lead to domestic violence and unsafe family dynamics, etcetera. So, you know, if you're in that vulnerable cohort where this has been extremely hard, and we don't quite have a clear light at the end of the tunnel, we know it might be coming, but we also don't know what the world is gonna look like. I think for some people, you know, that's an interesting prospect of we need to all be coming aware that level 2 or level 1 life is gonna be very different to pre-COVID living. So I think that's where well-being and support comes into play. And when you look at both of those research sets, post-traumatic stress features both from a quarantine pandemic and an economic recession view. So there may be a cohort of people that experience symptoms akin to post-traumatic stress disorder. And what we know from that research is it's not actually the trauma itself that has the major impact on how people cope afterwards, it's the support following that incident and the structure that's in place around those people that makes the major difference. So when we're looking at a government policy level, what are we gonna put in place for people to help them transition through when we come out of lockdown and when we come out of level 3. You talked about research with SARS and Ebola and those kinds of things; do we have any research which says what the long-term effects on a society are gonna be, in 10 or even 20 years from now? Uh, no. We know some long-term effects in terms of individual groups of people. (DOG BARKING) Sorry, that's the neighbours dog having a bark as we're talking. (LAUGHS) We know that for 3-4 years afterwards, some people can experience symptoms like post-traumatic stress. But we have not had a global shutdown like this before, we don't have a blueprint. So we have to go off the research we have around isolation, for example, which is equivalent physically to smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Wow. You know, we have to go off information around unexpected job loss and the major impact that can have on mental health. And if we gender split that, women who have unexpected job loss seem to experience greater rates of anxiety and depression, men on the other hand have greater rates of suicidal behaviour. So we need to go off those evidence, empirical bases, and also keep a very open mind and new research coming as we look forward into the future. And when we look at that in the UK at the moment, the UK has done some polling around the psychological impact of COVID-19, currently, at the moment. Interestingly, what they are finding is one of the largest at-risk groups in the UK is young people. And we've been speaking lots about the vulnerabilities in the elderly, because of that isolation and disconnection, but actually, some of what they're showing is that it's young people that feel trapped at home, that are really missing their social connections with their peers, that they are really struggling. OK, and we've seen that as well by some research by Youthline, which said 72% or so were saying similar kinds of things. Jacqui Maguire, thank you so much for your time this morning. Can I add one more thing for you, because it's important. And then I'll run away. Yep, Go. Which is there is also a cohort of people which experience post-traumatic growth, and that is really important, that if you come through a challenging time, there are people that can have a greater sense of strength, appreciation for their life, meaningful relationships, etcetera. So it's actually not all bleak. There's definitely a cohort that I think will come out of this stronger, and more resilient. Good on them, lucky them. Now I'm done! All right, thank you, Jacqui. Thanks! See you. Up next, digital editor Finn Hogan on who's up and who's down in party politics online. Plus highlights from a historic but physically distant week in the halls of power. Welcome back. With Kiwis at home in their bubbles, the political fallout from COVID-19 has been unfolding online. So this morning, we checked in with Digital Editor Finn Hogan to see who's up and who's down after five weeks of lockdown. And I started by asking him, what's defined pandemic politics so far? Well, good morning, Simon. I don't think it's gonna surprise you to hear that it's really been the Ashley Bloomfield show so far online. I mean, he really stepped into that authority vacuum left by David Clark. And to say the country kind of fell in love with him is an understatement. All right, we've all seen the Tik Toks, but what does Ashley Bloomfield turning into a meme really mean politically? I mean, except for the obvious comedy factor, it's actually very useful for the government. Because he's now de facto Health Minister, Labour get to bask in all that reflected popularity. But he's not actually the Health Minister, he's a state servant, and because he's a state servant, he has a reasonable expectation of being left alone to do his job. And that kind of makes National in a really tricky position, because they can't critique him without setting quite a bad precedent moving forward. So it's tricky for opposition right now. The opposition's got to oppose something, so what does it mean for them doing their job? Well, I mean, if you want a good example of this, look at Simon Bridges' recent I'll-fated Facebook post. I think the strength of the pushback against that is really telling, because the content of the post was pretty standard opposition rhetoric, right? But I think the strength of the pushback shows two things. A, the government's COVID messaging has been very effective. And B, the opposition is having to tread very lightly right now. Yeah, but what's made the government's response so successful? Obviously there's a lot of answers to that question, but if we want to pick one, take the 'Stay home, be kind, save lives' campaign. That was actually designed with the help of Topham and Guerin. They're the two social media whiz kids ` Kiwi guys ` who Boris Johnson employed to help him A, get elected, and B, manage his COVID response as well. And this campaign's quite typical of them. It's very succinct, very direct. But also completely inarguable, right? No voter wants to hear anyone suggest we shouldn't be doing those three things. And whether he meant it or not, that's kinda what it came across to people, with Simon Bridges making that post. There's just no appetite for it right now. Right, so, safe to say, so far the government's come out stronger online during the pandemic ` so far. I mean,... maybe not the government as a whole. Just look at David Clark for an example of that. But Jacinda Ardern specifically ` she's always had an edge in social media, right? But that's been growing exponentially during this pandemic. She gained 150,000 followers on Facebook in the last 30 days alone. You know, that's a Dunedin worth of people. She has a million followers on Instagram now. Compared to Simon Bridges, who has about 7,000, that is a huge edge. Yeah, but, the thing is, does that actually translate to anything come election time? Yes, of course, there is this question ` are social media numbers just smoke and mirrors? But I think the power of social media over elections has been proven again and again and again since Donald Trump's election. I mean, let's look at some hard numbers here. There's 2.3 million Kiwis logging into Facebook every day. 75% of the country have some form of social media presence. By the time we get to the election, Jacinda Ardern is going to have a captive audience that she can campaign to at any point without spending a cent. And there's no way that's not an edge. All right, well, we'll see come election time. We've all been forced to live our lives online to an extent, even the government. The government processes have gone online as well, how is that going? I think this has been one of the really surprising silver linings of this pandemic ` how well it's done for the select committee process. Cos the select committee is essentially the boring factory where the sausage of politics gets made. And so far, it's only really been watched by massive political nerds like you and me and probably you at home watching, viewer, if you're watching this show. But ever since the pandemic, thousands of people have been tuning in to watch the select committee livestreamed every day. And that kind of has to be a good thing for politics as a whole. I'm here for it. (LAUGHS) OK, just before you go, any other honourable mentions? I'm so glad you asked, Simon. I just want to give a quick shout out to the many pets of parliament who we've gotten to know over the past 30 days. Until this morning, I saw more of Winston Peters' dog, Beau, who, yes, I now know on first-name basis, than I saw of the man himself. If there's one thing that unifies us, it's appreciation for our furry friends. I'm all about it. OK. Isn't the Internet all about that? Finn Hogan, thank you very much for your time. Thank you very much, Simon. All right, stay with us. We're back after the break. Welcome back, and we are back with our panel, Dr Lara Greaves and Marg Joiner, thank you for staying around. Lara, we had this sniff of freedom this week with the first week of level 3, and then we saw queues outside of takeaways, how hard is it gonna be for the government to try to get us to maintain this, sort of, orderly, subservience that we've been doing in level 4? Well, I think it's gonna be quite difficult. I mean, I live in downtown Auckland. I'm like a classic millennial, went out and got my sushi and coffee as soon as I could. And from what I could see people were complying quite well with social distancing and doing quite well. I think it's gonna behaviourally be quite tough. I think some people will take a while to get out of, just, that sort of lockdown mentality, whereas others will just go full-on, hardcore, get into it. I think something that we have remember is that a lot of the projections have shown that not everyone needs to be perfect all the time in order for us to still eliminate COVID. And so that's been something that's been quite stressful for me personally. I think the rules at the moment ` it's gonna be a bit of a shift to see how the government communicates the rules. We've some inconsistencies, legal academics have been talking about inconsistencies between what's in the Health Act order for level 3 and what is actually being communicated. So I think we'll just see. Some of those communications now are getting a bit, kind of, dull, and you don't really notice them as much, so perhaps a slightly different strategy there is needed. But I think New Zealanders generally are doing a pretty good job. Well, you raise a good point there. I mean, are we getting a bit complacent about those communications, Marg? I mean, at one stage everyone was hanging on to the 1 o'clock announcement, and all those kinds of things, and now I don't know that anyone's actually tuning in, because we're past that now. Yeah, and the Prime Minister is certainly being quite exposed through this, and has been the face of the crisis and the response. The big gamble that Labour has taken there is that you also become the face of any fallout, and there will be fallout. We see that in Treasury's COVID-19 economic reporting that the lay-offs are starting to happen as winter sets in and we start to see unemployment rise, there will be some sentiment change in terms of the economic fallout from this. And that's where National has been targeting really, I mean, and from the get go has been saying every day of extra lockdown is another small business going out of business. Is National` Is that the only way they can sort of target and find a place to be the opposition, Lara? Yeah, well, I mean, I think generally` I'm part of the New Zealand Election Study, and we've been sort of looking at the relationship between, say, being a business owner and voting for the past 30 years, and small business owners have never really been a pocket of Labour voters over that time period. They tend to trend National anyway. It's not clear` Because, I mean, in New Zealand elections it's really trying to find those few percent of voters in the middle and swing them your way. It's not really clear that they are small business owners anyway. So I don't think that from a political party support perspective, that that's really that crucial. Right. So where would that pocket be, Marg, do you think, as we're coming along towards September? Where would that pocket be that would decide what's gonna happen September 19? Well, political leaders are positioning their campaign in the potential post-COVID world. So I think it's about the timing of that and the messaging of that. But, also as I've said earlier, the staying in touch with voter sentiment and making sure that you're in tune with that, because it is fast-moving. OK. Lara, we had the cannabis legislation revealed this week. Normally this would be a big thing as we're moving towards the referendum, but these kind of other major issues have all been pushed to the side, haven't they? How long is that gonna happen? Yeah, see, I was quite critical originally about having two referenda alongside an election just because that's been something that's` People are already just trying to process what's happening in the election, so it's kind of hard for them to sit down and figure out exactly where they stand on these two very huge issues. So I think that that's gonna be, like, a bigger challenge for people because it's kind of hard to, with your crystal ball, figure out what's gonna be happening in September, and whether we are all gonna be able to sit down and process and figure out where we all sit on these two issues. I mean, I don't think there's any mechanism to delay them now. But it's just, kind of, less than ideal that we would have to be voting on these two huge issues at this time. Right, we'll see what information breaks through the COVID bubble as we head towards the election. Lara Greaves battling the wind and Marg Joiner battling the noise of the suburbs, thanks very much for your time. All right, a heavily reduced parliament was finally able to meet this week, and it wasn't long before shots were fired from both sides of the house, here's Finn Hogan with the week that was in Wellington. After 5 weeks of lockdown, the house has finally returned. And for a brief moment, Simon Bridges seemed like he was keen keep up that united front across the aisle. We've flattened the curve. National has always supported lockdown. But it didn't last long and he was quickly back to his favourite line of questioning. Does she accept that every day New Zealand remains in level 3, means more businesses failing and more jobs lost. Winston Peters was obviously relishing being back in his element. Mr Bridges, I made more money in my law firm than you ever made` In one month than you made in six months. And that's a fact. And while there were many empty chairs, and the conspicuous bottles of disinfectant in this socially distanced parliaments, Gerry Brownlee still thought it wasn't up to scratch. So there's 4. That's right, except that- There's one in each quadrant. Yes, I know, but it requires significant moment, which I'm sure you'd be upset about. And quite often. I'm very happy. A proximity closer than a meeting. Order, Member resume his seat, I will be happy to double the numbers in order to save the Member moving 3 or 4 metres. But if you thought the speaker had gone soft after spending five weeks at home, think again. As we announce the` It's been five weeks since I've had to wear a tie Mr Speaker. You are not the only one, Stuart. Another week in the house where a lot has changed but more has stayed the same. And that's all from us for now. Thank you so much for watching, and we will see you again next weekend. Captions by Joshua Tait and John Gibbs. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020