Today, on Newshub Nation ` Green Party co-leader James Shaw with a grand vision for rebuilding a better New Zealand. Conor Whitten investigates ` is our contact tracing ready for level two? And Auckland Central MP, Nikki Kaye, on vacant buildings and ghost towns in our biggest CBD. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 Kia ora, good morning, I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation. In political news this week ` global cases of COVID-19 are nearing four million, while total deaths have passed 250,000. The United States is projecting unemployment of up to 20% within a month, and has upped its projected domestic death toll to more than 100,000. Closer to home, the government has revealed what Kiwis can expect from alert level two. Under the news rules, most businesses can re-open, provided they can maintain social distancing. Cabinet will make a decision about when we move to level two on Monday. And Winston Peters has stirred the international pot by claiming New Zealand backs Taiwan's inclusion in the World Health Organisation. But the Chinese Embassy published a letter of protest in response to his remarks. Peters said, 'My response to the Chinese ambassador is to listen to her master, 'Wang Yi, back in Beijing.' Green Party co-leader James Shaw says New Zealand must plot a new course from now on. He has a grand vision for rebuilding a better, greener New Zealand. The Guardian published it, but will New Zealanders want it, and can we afford it? He joins me live and thank you for your time this morning, Minister. Can I first address Friday's document release that came out yesterday? Thousands of pages of documents, but in it Ministry of Health advice to the Cabinet on March 20 recommended that New Zealand move to level two as soon as possible and remain there for 30 days. This was just before we went to level three and level four. What changed? Well, Simon, we were looking at a variety of sources of information. And if you looked internationally, you would see that the average number of cases around the world before things really went exponential was about nine. That was the sort of tipping point for most countries. Over the course of that weekend, we actually passed that number. I think we had about a dozen cases over that middle weekend of March. And, so it was pretty clear that if we didn't really observe the maximum precautionary measure, that we could well be on the same path as a number of other countries in the world that were going through absolute hell at the time, like Italy and Spain and others. And I think if you look subsequent to that decision, obviously we have managed to turn that around. Whereas it really is still quite out of control in a number of other countries ` even including countries that are currently in at least some form of lockdown. Because there have been critics that level four is too restrictive and a recommendation by the Minister of Health to stay in lockdown level two for 30 days would've made a huge difference to the economy. I think that the evidence, Simon, is that we have currently about 150`odd active cases entirely. We've gotten as low as zero new cases in the last week and it's slowed to a trickle of two or three. The counterfactual is if we'd stayed open for business, like, say, the United States, we would have a huge mortality rate and that itself would also cause carnage in the economy. So I just think the proof is in the pudding that we made the right call. OK, it seems the government wants to be transparent by dumping all these documents on a Friday afternoon, yet there's a directive from the Prime Minister not to talk to the media about it. Did you get that memo and is that the kind of politics that you want to play? I personally didn't. My understanding is that that went out to agencies and that is because it is really important in a time of crisis the government speaks with one voice. And the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been that voice and I think it's appropriate that she continues to be that voice. So, OK, ministers can't talk their respective areas and it all has to come from the Prime Minister? Are you happy with that? Um,... Well, I am talking about climate change, Simon. I've been talking about climate change the entire time. (SCOFFS) OK, but in terms of a way of operating, are you happy with that? For other ministers as well, you're buying into that? Well, like I said, I think it is entirely appropriate at a time of national crisis, the scale of which we haven't seen since the Great Depression and World War II, that the government speaks with one voice. I don't think that there's anything strange about that at all. OK. Let's talk about the post-COVID world. What is going to be your top priority as Climate Change Minister? Well, like I said in The Guardian article that you referred to, this is actually really our one chance to use the quantum of capital that we're currently putting into the economy to get us through the COVID-19 crisis to resolve some of the long-term challenges that are still there when we return to whatever form of normal we're looking forward to returning to. If you think about it, we are currently spending at least the next 10 years worth of budget allowances and so that's going to have to get paid for by future generations of our kids and their kids in terms of taxes to pay back those borrowings. So it's entirely appropriate that we put that money into things that are going to serve their interests, and if we don't use the quantum of capital that we're currently injecting into the economy to fix things like the housing crisis and the climate crisis, then we're doing them a disservice. But people are going to need to get back to work. They will want to go back to their normal, cos they want to be able to put food on the table. How can we look 10 years down the track when we've got a crisis right on our doorstep? Well, conveniently, Simon, some of the things that we need to do to de-carbonise the economy are some of the most jobs-intensive industries out there. so I'll give you an example. Retro-fitting a house for insulation or solar panels on the roof, actually building a house, creates more jobs per dollar spent than building a road. So given that we're about to see a bit of a spike in unemployment, and given that we are deploying vast amounts of capital to getting people back to work and getting the country working again as fast as possible, doesn't it make sense for us to do those in areas where you get multiple wins for the same dollar? OK. How about this, though ` some projects, or some areas of the economy, are going to have to fail to pay for this other kind of future. What are you willing` What areas of the economy, what areas of businesses are you happy to let go to make way for this? Well, it's more about what are the things that we invest in. We have a 30-year infrastructure deficit in things like housing, our schools and our hospitals, waste-water treatment, waste management, energy, transport ` all of those are areas where we knew we had huge problems and we knew we were going to have to spend quite a lot of money to fix them. We are spending that money right now, let's make sure we spend it on those things. Because in all of those areas, we've got an issue that needs fixing and in all of those areas that helps to de-carbonise the economy. Do you need to take money away from areas that do carbonise the economy, like, say, airlines? Like farmers? No, not at all. And actually, Simon, the thing is, it's not that we're taking money away, it's where we choose to invest. Because what we're doing is we're pumping tens of billions of dollars into the economy. Part of that is on demand-side measures - things like the wage-subsidy and making sure that people have got enough money to live and to continue to spend in their local communities and businesses will respond to consumer demand the way they always do. And some of it is on supply-side measures and which industries are we going to put money into? And like I said, there are industries where we can create jobs, de-carbonise the economy and get the country back to work and we can do all of that using the same dollar. OK` In fact, if we don't, it would be irresponsible not to, because we'd still have to fix those problems after we've recovered from the crisis. All right. Look, you signed up to the Fiscal Responsibility Rules it seems like a decade ago, but it's not. 20% ` those have gone out the window. What level of debt are you comfortable with to have this rebuild? Well, the Budget Responsibility Rules actually included a line saying that in a time of crisis, obviously you would change your strategy and that is exactly what we have done. In terms of the level of debt, Treasury have said that in a time of crisis, you could easily see debt go up to 50% of GDP and it would not effect our credit rating and it would be recoverable from. I'm going to continue to take their guidance. By comparison, a lot of OECD countries are anywhere between 100 and 200% of GDP in debt. And so we do have a lot of room to move there because of they way that we've managed the books over the course of this government. OK. Climate Change Minister James Shaw, thank you very much for your time this morning. Thank you. And if you've got something to say about you see on our show, please let us know. We are on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram ` NewshubNationNZ. Or you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. But, still to come ` we dissect the week's political news with our panel. Plus, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker, are we still behind on the safe contact tracing we need? Welcome back. In the effort to eliminate COVID-19, good contact tracing can be as good as a vaccine. But an audit of New Zealand's contact tracing in April found the system was overwhelmed. Urgent improvements were recommended, and they're about to be put to the test. Conor Whitten investigates whether we're ready for alert level 2. Inside the public health unit in Auckland, phones are the country's best defence. My name's Lucy, I'm calling from Auckland Regional Public Health. With months - maybe years - until a COVID vaccine, contact tracing is key to containment. Got any shortness of breath, coughs, fever, chills? finding and isolating every Kiwi exposed to the virus before it can spread. Gold-standard testing, case isolation and contact tracing is going to be the system that protects the public until we get a vaccine.' The greater freedoms of alert level 2 will test if the system is up to scratch. An audit by Dr Ayesha Verrall in April found contact tracing was overwhelmed. New Zealand needed three to four times the workforce to prepare for up to 1000 cases a day. The Government should be able to reassure us we're able to hit that target before we move to level 2. So we shouldn't move to level 2 unless we have hit that target? I'm really optimistic that they're on track to do that. And yes, I think we need to hit that target before we move down a level. Verral says despite good progress, New Zealand's contact tracing is not there yet. The Government has promised 300 more staff to meet Dr Verrall's recommendations in 12 public health units nationwide. But after several inquiries from Newshub Nation, the Ministry of Health still won't say how many are ready or when they'll be done. Auckland's Public Health Unit is scaling up quickly. Over the last couple of months we doubled our medical workforce and trebled our nursing workforce. In an outbreak they'd be needed fast. At the moment we're seeing fewer cases, so we don't need such a large workforce, but we do need to be able to flex up and down at short notice and that's part of our planning as we get through the rest of this year. The system was severely tested in Auckland where one of the country's biggest clusters emerged. It's still not known how the Marist cluster started, but 95 cases quickly ensued. The latest - a student - was confirmed only on Wednesday, six weeks after the first case was found. We know that there were some issues with contact tracing and symptom checking in the early part of the response. The student received a contact tracing call a month ago but had no symptoms, wasn't tested, and it wasn't followed up. Lessons have been learned since those first weeks in April and now close contacts get calls every day. The ideal is that people are contacted every day and their symptoms are checked in person. The goal is to isolate 80% of those exposed to a COVID-19 patient within 4 days of them getting sick. It was taking 10 days in the middle of April. Now that number's reduced to five. it's close, but not quite the four-day gold standard. And the task is easy with the country in lockdown - at alert level 2, bubbles will burst. What we expect when we go into level 2 is that people's lives will once again become more busy, more complex and consequently, if we do see cases, they're very likely to have more close contacts. so The thing the Ministry needs to focus on for the next week is really encouraging New Zealanders to get tested early, and that will drive that time down. Some believe massive investment is needed to match public health efforts overseas. I'm just calling from New South Wales Health. Even after extra resources, Australia's 7000 contact tracers will be double the number per capita here. The system for rapid tracing and isolation of contacts must be upgraded urgently so that we can achieve the same performance as the Australians. Australia's called in the army for tracing, aided by bluetooth smartphone tracking. '...and the new COVIDSafe app that lets people know quickly if someone they've had contact with 'has tested positive for coronavirus.' It's now been downloaded more than 5 million times. The Government is basically saying if we want to really actively start decreasing our social restrictions, we need to have some other form of tracking, and it makes sense. But hopes for a Bluetooth app in New Zealand have been played down in recent weeks. And if our contact tracing doesn't match Australia, a trans-Tasman bubble could have to wait. We'd need to have a lot of similarities before you'd start actually allowing each other to transfer freely between countries. It may well be the Australians say, 'For this to be OK you need to double your contact tracing.' So it's definitely something that could happen, and it's down to the discussions between the two governments. In the meantime only days remain to prepare for a move to alert level 2. I'm optimistic we can, because I know how much we've improved across the last 2 weeks, so I think if we continue to keep that up, then yes, we will be able to go down to level 2. we should expect that they should be able to be ready for that. Cabinet will decide if we're ready on Monday. If we leave lockdown, stakes are high. Countries like Singapore saw big outbreaks after experiencing early success. Move too quickly without gold-standard tracing, and six weeks of sacrifice could be lost. Conor Whitten reporting there. Well, joining us now is Epidemiologist, Professor Michael Baker from the Department of Public Health at the University of Otago. Welcome to the programme, and this morning you're wearing a mask to talk to us, why is that? Yeah, morena. Yeah, there's a lot of evidence the wearing fabric masks, simple re-useable masks in public transport would reduce the risk of transmission of COVID-19. We're not talking up wearing masks everywhere, but certainly on aircraft, busses, ferries, terminals, we think this is a very good idea. And if you look at the countries that have really succeeded like Taiwan, they require this by law even though they've had no cases for a month. They still think this is an essential precaution to protect the public. Why do you think, Professor, that there is a reluctance to do this in New Zealand? I think it's just not part of our culture. But it is in countries that have been through SARS ` they recognise the need for masks. And the purpose of the mask is not to protect you, it's to stop you transmitting the virus to people around you. OK, are we sort of, like, arrogant in thinking that these kinds of viruses aren't part of our culture, or aren't part of our environments, and we don't need a mask? Yeah, in fact, the whole response to COVID-19 has displayed a great deal of western arrogance, because the Asian countries are the most successful in containing this pandemic. And the west has really failed very badly, with a few exceptions, and fortunately New Zealand and Australia took a different path, and I think they're on-track for elimination, so I think we did the right thing. Do you think that sense of arrogance or, I don't know, emanates from the decision-making in the Ministry of Health? No, I think our Ministry has responded very well, and I think in the nick of time, just as Australia did. I mean, the key thing, of course, was stopping this virus at the borders. And both countries took similar action at similar times. OK, so we're about to know whether we're gonna go to level 2. But it all depends on the contact-tracing. From what you've heard from that story that we've just had from Conor, are we ready for level 2, in terms of contact tracing? Yeah, I think we are. And I think this is a real tribute to our Ministry of Health and the public health services around New Zealand that have gone from having a very low base to having a system that could be world-class with just a few more tweaks, but I think we're basically there. OK. We hit zero cases a couple of times, but we haven't gone back there. Are we getting ahead of ourselves though? Is there sense that we're being a bit too` we've done this already? Yeah I think we can't really say we've eliminated the virus yet. I mean, we're on track to do that. Is the word 'smug' something that you would say about our response? I think that's balance of encouraging people to do the right thing, but not getting complacent. So the government's giving the right message? I think we need to maintain this huge sense of caution, because the virus is almost certainly still circulating in New Zealand. OK, in that story from Conor there was talk about, you know, what we need to do in terms of the trans-Tasman bubble. Are you supportive of that idea of a trans-Tasman bubble? Oh, very supportive. I mean, basically, once the virus is eliminated in New Zealand and Australia and other countries in Asia, we can look at linking up with those countries. I mean, obviously it's very cautious. You've gotta have an agreement on what elimination looks like. You've gotta have very good systems in place. I'm thinking of all of those layers of precautions. But I think we're getting there, and I think there's a lot of agreement between Australia and New Zealand about this. But what about the level of contact tracing? Could that be an issue between Australia and New Zealand? Especially if Australia has been more successful or has ramped it up further than we have. I think that we're now closer to being on parallel with them. And, really, it comes down to these key measures ` how long does it take after you've identified a case to identify all the contacts and get them into a quarantine. And I think the measures are really going in the right direction. Obviously, there is a role for digital technology to help with that, but it's not critical at this stage. But I think we should be looking towards using this technology, and being a very smart risk-manager. Because, ultimately, that technology reduces the workforce you need, but the core thing is what we've got now ` you still need that workforce, you still need to put resources into the public health service to make this all work. OK. You were complementary of New Zealand and Australia's response, but Australia seems to have succeeded at the same level of its health response with a less restrictive lockdown. Why do you think that is? Well, I think Australia started with a lot more resources. New Zealand really had to do a huge catch-up, because we've really underinvested in our public health infrastructure for decades. And has really, I think, just shown the problem if you don't have those systems in place. I mean, when we re-look at this, and I think we need to put that off until we're through this acute phase, we need to have prevention and preparedness right at the centre of our system. And this is just another example ` we've had other warnings our system was not really ready for this event, so I think that's the huge message from this. OK, so do we need a dedicated disease control unit, or a public health unit? That we used to have, once upon a time, and then got scrapped. Yeah, I think a national public health agency would be in a better position to manage this kind of event. And remembering New Zealand's done well, but some countries have done better, like Taiwan, and that's because they had the dedicated agency, they acted very early in January to manage their borders, and they didn't need a lockdown. And I think that's the lesson ` is if you have the capacity to identify problems early, it's the old prevention paradigm, you can avoid then having to take quite extreme measures like a lockdown. And I think that's one of the big messages. Australia was in the same boat. They also acted quite late, but just in the nick of time, I think, like New Zealand. OK. Well, let's look forward, then. How concerned, uh... What are the concerns about how this virus is going to behave when we come into winter? As we are now, and we're all out and about more. Yeah. Well, if we all stick with the current plan and we manage to achieve elimination, then winter will be OK because we won't have circulating virus. I mean, this virus is very seasonal. It likes winter conditions. But if we haven't eliminated the virus, then that is a problem. OK. On our current trajectory, the way we're behaving at the moment, how normal would life be, say, Christmas time? Can you push it that far? I think we'll be largely back to normal. Back to normal? Yeah, I think so. I think it could be largely back to normal in New Zealand. We could be having reasonable volumes of travel to Australia and other countries that have eliminated the virus, and also to the Pacific. The problems are, of course, that international tourism will still be in the doldrums for a long time, and actually, New Zealand has no control over that. Because unfortunately, unless there's a vaccine or very good anti-virals, this is going to be a huge problem, maybe for a year or two more, in much of the world. OK, and if there's one thing about the virus which you wish you knew now that is not known, what would that be? I think the big unknown is immunity. Can we induce it with a vaccine? Which I think is likely, and how long it lasts. OK. Professor Michael Baker, thank you so much for your time this morning. Thank you. OK, up next, can beloved venues like Auckland's The PowerStation survive this pandemic? Plus Auckland Central MP Nicki Kaye on the new ghost towns in our biggest CBD. Welcome back. Not everybody is celebrating the move to level two when it happens. No gatherings of more than 100 people means concert venues cannot open. A campaign is underway to save our small ones, and the biggest spaces won't be opening for months. One of those is Auckland's iconic music venue, The Powerstation. I think there's not many people that are into a really broad swathe of musical styles that have not been to a show at The Powerstation. One, two. (GUITAR RIFFS) We've been able to trade really successfully ` really, really successfully ` and build an internationally recognised venue. Are you proud of some of the names that you've` Some of the names ` it's always really been able to punch above our weight in terms of the venue size and the facility, et cetera. I'm absolutely blown out at some of the acts that we've been able to put through, such as The Pixies, the Arctic Monkeys, Snoop Dogg. # It's like that, as a matter of fact. # Rat-tat-tat-tat. # This was gonna be the strongest year we'd ever had. We had huge trade right through the middle of the year and right into the end of April next year. It was definitely going to be the biggest trading and most successful trading period we'd had. And when COVID-19 hit, what did you think? Um, well, obviously a huge amount of uncertainty. (ROOTS MUSIC) We won't have any trade, we won't have any business. We will lay off all staff but one. # And fight for the hopeful and hopeless. # Venues are integral to an eco-system for musicians. It means that we have places and spaces to go and grow and develop and small venues especially. # My only dear long wasteful son. # You may not have seen Marlon Williams at the Wine Cellar or Whammy Bar, at Blue Smoke. But you will have seen him at the Auckland Town Hall. In fact, you're gonna see him on television this weekend. And the only reason that Marlon Williams got to play at the Town Hall is because he first started out in those venues and they gave him a place to grow, develop as an artist and build an audience. They are vital to Aotearoa's music scene. And in level two, we've talked to our venues and they're looking at having half the capacity, less than half of the income through bar sales, if they try to open. It's actually not even viable for them to open at level two. They might as well keep their doors shut. And so we really need a cash injection from the government right now. We've got level two on the way, does that provide any comfort to you? Nah, not at all. It doesn't mean a thing, really. Even when we do finally go to level one, what are the terms and conditions that are required around level one that we have to deal with? It will probably mean extremely limited trade for us right through until the middle of next year, I would say. Are you, as a business, going to be able to survive? Um, yeah, we'll survive. We will. It's an industry that's always been challenging. Here's another one and we'll make sure that we survive somehow. Powerstation there from Peter Campbell. With us now is Nikki Kaye, who is MP for Auckland Central, represents New Zealand's biggest concentration of businesses. Welcome to the programme, thanks for your time this morning, Nikki. Now, look, you've talked about vacant buildings and ghost towns in Auckland, what do you mean? Well, look, what we know is that there are a number of businesses that have already gone under and people are losing their jobs. The Heart of the City the other day came out with a report that projects potentially 12,000 jobs will be lost. So, what has happened here is the government support has not been enough. I think we all understand the difficult situation with coronavirus, but the businesses that I talked to, whether it's a lack of rent relief, rates relief, or even the proposal that we put up around GST refunds, it's not enough. OK. These are your constituents, these businesses. You're saying that some are going under. What are you seeing for food businesses and retailers? Well, look, what I'm seeing is it's particularly been very hard for a group of food and hospitality businesses because the takeaway situation's not been viable and many of them haven't been able to operate. I'm getting some figures about the numbers that may for instance not open their doors in central Auckland. But I'm also hearing from, whether it's bars` What are those figures? Well, again, I don't want to get ahead of what those official figures are, but there will be a number of businesses in an electorate where we've got over 10,000 businesses. As I say, the projections are that we could lose 12,000 jobs. And I am certainly hearing of businesses that are on the edge and the combination the restrictions around level two but then also not having anything around rent relief and rate relief means some of them will go under. Are you saying` You proposed ` well, Simon Bridges proposed this week an $8B GST payback for businesses. But are you also proposing other cash injections for rent relief? Well, certainly I think that it has to be a combination. Basically what businesses are saying to me is they need some cashflow. The wage subsidy did an amount, but they've got outgoings around their commercial rent. A number of them were left with difficult situations where they may have had perishable products and they've got bills. So it's just not enough and they need cashflow. Potentially they've gone to their bank. I had a major business the other night that had gone to their bank. They can't get the loan. So they need something additional and what we all need to realise here is we're dealing with long-term damage to places like Central Auckland. And we will have a number of vacant premises as a result. OK. Look, we had a dumping of documents on Friday afternoon by the government. What do you think about that? There was ministerial advice saying that ministers shouldn't talk about that. What are your views on that? Well, look, I think we're pretty concerned about that. I think what's really important is people can deal with very difficult situations. This is unprecedented ` the scale of what is occurring is having extraordinary hardship. But what people don't think is fair, I think, is not having transparency about the decisions that are made. So this whole issue of potentially a gagging order to ministers to be able to talk about the information that may be there, but also the information that's not there, we think is very problematic. Like what? Well, for instance, take the Education portfolio, I read what was online last night, but I can tell you I have major questions about, for instance, the public health and science advice. Where are these papers? So I think that over the coming weeks, we need to see more transparency from government. We need to see the full release of papers in particular areas. And we need to not have the behaviour that on a Friday afternoon, thousands of papers are dumped and then ministers are ordered not to speak about them. Yes. Is that something that, say, you didn't do when you were in government. Surely National dumped documents on a Friday afternoon as well. Well, I think it's the cumulative impact of the number of documents, the situation that we're dealing with, the fact that these documents relate to often people's impact, in terms of their businesses going under, and then that combination of a very strong direction to not actually be held accountable and speak to them. I think that that accumulation of things is quite extraordinary in the times that we're in. It's not an open and transparent government. OK, well, how about the National Party. Have you been happy with the tone of the Opposition ` that the Opposition has struck during this pandemic? Look, I think it's really challenging. I've heard that ` I have heard that from some people. But I think what we're dealing with is we need to discharge our moral obligation as an opposition party. So, take the Education portfolio. I actually argued for potentially schools to close earlier, because I was very worried about safety. We have to do that because we are part of the protection system for the public. Sure. But I think the way that we do that really matters, and the timing of when we do that. So it's a balance ensuring we keep public order and get that tone right. Right. Are you happy? Cos most of the tone is set by your leader, Simon Bridges, so have you been happy with that? Or are you saying that you haven't got the tone right? Well, look, I take responsibility as a National MP as well trying to get that tone right. So I think we're all dealing with very difficult situations that are imperfect, in the middle of a major emergency, trying to discharge our moral obligation. And we won't always get it right. OK. Well, that's a nice, interesting admission there that you won't always get it right. It is a tricky situation. Just say, has Simon Bridges got it right? Is that a yes or no answer you can give me? Look, I personally think overall Simon has done an incredible job. I know the hours that he's been working to, I think, hold the government to account, but then also put up constructive proposals, such as the GST proposal that we've put up. It's not going to be a perfect science, and I, as another National MP, take responsibility for that. OK. Can I just ask you how long is it since you've seen internal polling from the National Party? Well, look, we don't tend to talk about polling generally. But from my perspective, I'm reasonably relaxed. The biggest thing I've been focusing on is working 18-hour days to help my constituents and help those businesses going under. Sure, but I just wanted to see ` how do you feel, I know it was an UMR poll which was probably commissioned by Labour, but it did have National down at 29%. How concerning is that? Well, look, I think typically governments do go up in national emergencies, which is perfectly natural. They're running the country through that period. I think that, more than ever, we're going to be fighting hard at this election to demonstrate that we have the best plan to rebuild our economy and the country. And I accept that the polls will bounce around a bit on that. But what's important is who has the best plan to rebuild our country. Auckland Central MP Nikki Kaye. Thank you so much for your time this morning Thank you. All right, up next, the news and politics of the week sliced and diced by our expert panel. Plus, will the government move to help, or is there more pain to come for our universities? The international education market is the nation's fifth biggest export earner, and it's all but gone. And now hundreds of academics are calling for urgent government help as universities face an immediate loss of around half a billion dollars, with more pain to come. Corazon Miller reports. International Students contribute around $5 billion dollars to New Zealand's economy. But when our borders closed in march, Tertiary institutions saw around a third of their total tuition revenue dry up almost overnight. We're seeing emails that are bouncing around the departments saying that there's going to be massive cuts in 2021. That means that people who are towards the end of their PhDs or just finishing their PhDs are suddenly gonna be outside of that work. Luke Oldfield is part of a group of academics petitioning for increased funding and an end to the casualization of the tertiary workforce. Without that support, universities would have to cut costs, threatening livelihoods, putting future projects in doubt, and then there's the flow-on effects for the rest of the country. We need to be there to be funding to ensure those precarious, those vulnerable workers are maintained as best as possible, and not just dumped on the unemployment queue. Wellington-based academic Kasia Wallace knows what that looks like. Earlier this year she wrapped up research positions at Victoria University just as COVID-19 arrived. For me, I had to go on WINZ for the first time. And that was a pretty demoralising experience. And if nothing is done to boost funding, she fears more jobs will go. What are we gonna be like if we don't have a whole generation who can think critically? In 2017, just over half of tertiary funding came from the government compared to an average 70% across the OECD. A 2019 report shows New Zealand spends almost 2000 less per student than the average OECD country, well below Australia, the US and the UK. Universities are compensated by attracting overseas students who pay up to three times as much as their local classmates. They make an economic contribution to the country. So international education in New Zealand is about the fifth biggest export-earner, it supports a lot of jobs. The sudden end to foreign student arrivals will cost universities an estimated half a billion dollars this year alone, and with no signs as to when our borders will re-open, the tertiary sectors booming international market is for now a distant dream. But as a sector that injects billions of dollars into the regions and represents up to 6% of our GDP, it is one that critically needs support in order to thrive in our post-COVID world. We need education, training, skills development, upskilling, reskilling, all of those sorts of opportunities to get through that transition. So we all need our universities to be on full strength when we come out of COVID. And that's been our aim ` to keep our staff with us, to keep our students with us. Universities are clearly needed for our economy to thrive in a post-COVID world. Corazon Miller reporting there. All right, it's time for our panel. I'm joined now by associate professor in political marketing and political leadership, Dr Jennifer Lees-Marshment, and Thomas Pryor, associate director at Sherson Willis PR. Thank you very much for your time this morning. Jennifer, first to you ` great to have a political marketing specialist on just after a late Friday night data dump from the government. Did that move surprise you? It's a trick used by a lot of governments sometimes to bury bad news. Although I'm not entirely sure this was just bad news. They're obviously feeling under pressure to reveal some of the official advice that they've been given, so they've released it. But doing it on a Friday afternoon, I mean, it's a debate. Are they doing it to hide it or are they giving people the weekend to look over it, who knows? Who knows? We don't have any insight as to why that is, why they choose Friday afternoons? Seems to be part of all governments. No, I mean` Yes. Yeah, sometimes they do do it if they want to try and, you know, stop there being too much attention on it, cos people have got better things to do on a Friday night. Perhaps not so much in lockdown. Perhaps that's why we're paying more attention to it than normal. (LAUGHS) OK. Thomas, couple of things going on here, the dump of stuff, but also the email from the Prime Minister's office to minister's staff or agencies staff saying ministers should not give interviews to media on the data dump or the response, what do you think about that? Yeah, I mean, to be honest, it's pretty standard political management. I saw very similar instructions when I worked in the beehive many years ago. So I think it's easy ` I just heard Nikki Kaye being a little bit critical of it ` but I'm sure similar instructions were issued when she was a cabinet minister. So it's pretty standard practice, I mean, to be honest, it's just a message that's been message controlled. So is it cynical? Yes. Does it surprise me? No. James Shaw on the programme this morning said that, you know, 'Oh, well it's just to make sure that all the communication really just comes through one person.' That's Jacinda Ardern. Jennifer, is that a` a` a` a suitable response? Well, that's a truthful one. And there are arguments, particularly in a crisis such as a pandemic and, you know, world recession that we have at the moment that you particularly need to make sure that you have message control and that you have clear information and advice, particularly about decisions that the government is making and instructions that are given to the public in order to safeguard our public health. So I understand that people would be critical of this, that they don't like governments having too much control over communications. And I think perhaps in a more normal period we might be more critical. But in this one, it kind of makes sense. Right. So, Thomas, can we forgive them? Because the government campaigned on being the most transparent ever. I mean, I think that's the issue with this government. I mean, as I say, it doesn't surprise me. It's pretty standard practice. But this government has claimed the most open, transparent. They're just the same as every other government. So I think we can accuse them of hypocrisy, and we can accuse them of being cynical political operators, but, frankly, that's probably the staff at the beehive doing their job. (LAUGHS) OK. They need to. Sorry, what was that? They need to. I was just gonna say, don't forget, in terms of transparency, they have released documents. So that is actually transparent. The issue of the gagging order is perhaps a little bit more questionable. But the fact they've given us all this information is actually a form of transparency. OK. Uh, look, Jennifer, I was just looking at the recent poll that had the Greens at 5%. Now, James Shaw was on the programme this morning outlining a Green vision. Will they survive the election, with support for Labour at the moment so high? In that recent poll? Well, it's very difficult to judge polls at the moment, because we're in this crisis period. And in crisis periods, we've seen it around the world, even with Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, you know, people tend to have more support for the main leader, the Prime Minister, than at other times. So we won't really be able to judge those polls until we move out of this crisis period. And then it's anybody's guess. You've got to remember that the Greens have been in partnership with Labour in this government despite voters frustration over issues like housing and so on, they have still made progress ` the Zero Carbon Act, for example. So I think it really comes down to ` can the Greens present an effective vision and an alternative policies to take us through the next very challenging period while we try to recover. OK. Well, in terms of presenting a vision for the future, Thomas, how do you think the oppossition has performed so far during this? Well, I mean, it's a pretty thankless task being opposition, leader of the opposition in these pretty unprecedented times. I think, you know, Bridges, his tone has been off, and his timing hasn't been great. But I actually think if you look at the substance of what he's saying, he's been pretty good. And actually, he's pushed the government right back at the very beginning of this, of COVID, on some pretty important issues ` on closing the borders, on testing, on PPE, and I think for political tragics like myself, who have been watching the select committee, he's done a pretty good job of chairing that select committee. I think, you know, as Jennifer Said, I just don't read too much into polls at the moment. I think normal politics is sort of suspended currently, but that will resume. And I think we're actually beginning to see some frustration with the restraints of lockdown. And let's be honest here, or let's be frank here, there's some pretty tough economic times ahead. And the reality is people are more likely to blame that on the government of the day, and there's opportunity for the opposition to make gain on the back of that. OK. Do you think, Jennifer, if the government would even consider postponing September 19 election date because of, as Thomas said, the bleak outlook? (SIGHS) It's a difficult question. The problem is if they do, then it's increasing their control without a democratic mandate. And I think, you know, the opposition would have concerns about that. And then the other thing is the further we go on, who knows whether there might be more crises in say, January or February next year. So in general, unless we have, you know, have a major crisis again, and unless we end up having to go back into lockdown, we can't get out to vote, then no, I think they'd be wise just to keep it as it is. Because people are going to want the opportunity to express their views. And I'm sure Simon Bridges would want people to express their views, to give him a chance to get back into power. Sure, OK. What about the Prime Minister, then. At the beginning of this crisis everyone was saying she's done an amazing job, she's been lauded globally, has that lustre worn off as lockdown continues, Thomas? Uh, I don't think it's worn off yet. I think perhaps the process might be beginning. And don't forget, the Prime Minister has sort of had unprecedented exposure. You know, the fact that we were all tuning in to see her speak live to the nation, essentially uninterrupted every day at 1pm is pretty extraordinary. So she's had this amazing platform, and she's done an amazing job of communicating and talking to us, and I think, essentially leading the country through a very challenging time. As I say, this is really, I guess, the end of the beginning in some ways. And it's the next period which I think will be really challenging for the PM, and for the government, you know, managing that recovery process, dealing with, as Nikki Kaye was saying before, potentially pretty significant job-losses. That's gonna be the very real hard ask for the Prime Minister, and that will be when she really will be challenged. Do you think that's gonna be a challenge to, you know, the coalition government might not be so united as a front, Jennifer, moving forward? Yes, because it is an election year, and you've got very different parties within that coalition. You have different views. And also going into an election year they have to distinguish themselves from each other. So, you mentioned the Greens and Labour, Greens need to, you know, show something that is different to Labour to give people a reason to vote Green, not Labour. And of course New Zealand First are gonna want to have their own distinctive position. So I think we will start to see the coalition after the crisis start to separate, because they need to present their potential, you know, separate products, so-to-speak, their separate policy programmes, and there'll be much more debate. It doesn't mean, necessarily they're gonna be disunified, but, you know, in terms of looking forward and proposing solutions to get us out of the recovery and back on the right track, then they're gonna provide diverse views on that. So I think we'll see a lot more debate ahead. OK. Thomas Pryor and Jennifer Lees-Marshment, thank you very much for your time this morning. Right, stay with us, we'll be back after the break. Welcome back to what very well could be the last of our temporary segment 'In the Bubble', where a political leader takes us on a self-filmed tour of the private space where their political decisions are being made. This week Hutt South MP Chris Bishop gives us a look at his life in level 3, with wife, Jenna. So my bubble is at home in Petone, where I live with my Jenna. She's very much the boss of our household. She wins all the arguments with me, and our dog, Ladyhawke very much looks to her for guidance, not me. First Coffee of the day. It's the Flying Bee Coffee Cart across the road from em hear in Petone, on the esplanade. OK, what are you making, Jenna? This is a beetroot and berry smoothie. Oh, yes. Ladyhawke's helping, but actually she just wants a second breakfast I think. Moroccan chickpea burger. I think that might be dinner tonight. Or if Jenna lets me I might see if I can get Dirty Burger. Yay! (LAUGHS) Burgers! Delicious! So you start the day with a healthy beetroot and berry smoothie, and end with pretty unhealthy but frankly delicious burgers. We have the lockdown quite hard, to be honest. Just on a, sort of, more personal level, not being able to see my mum and dad, you know, they live in Wellington, I haven't seen them for, probably, two months now. I haven't seen my sister for, probably, three months, and just, you know, my close friends. We've been doing Friday Night Zoom dinners. So I actually haven't had a bite yet, but I'm told it's delicious, so` Obviously I've been doing a lot of work from home, so, a lot of phone calls or zoom meetings instead of, you know, actual physical, face-to-face meetings. But it has just been hard not, sort of, being out and about. Chris goes into his office, and I get all the space, which is nice. Sometimes it feels like just going to work like normal. We don't see each other for a whole day sometimes and then re-emerge at the end of the day. He's got a very loud phone voice though, so we've gotta keep the door shut. So I am fitter than I was when I went into lockdown. I've lost about 4-5 kilograms over the last couple of months, and probably about 11 kilograms since the start of the year. So, I said to myself at the start of lockdown, well, it'd be really easy, actually, to just, kind of, vege out and get back into the booze, and I said to myself, 'No, I'm not going to do that, I'm gonna keep my exercise up.' So Ladyhawke I think has really enjoyed having us both at home more. She's been able to go for a bunch of daily, long walks down the esplanade, down the river. So she's really loved that. Jenna's been teaching her all the se tricks. Just the other day she did the 25 press-up challenge. So she's absolutely loving all that. My message to Kiwis is that we've done a fantastic job so far, you know, the lockdown has worked. We've flattened the curve, things are definitely heading in the right direction, but we've just got to make sure we keep the at social distancing from people and keep following the rules, and, you know, New Zealand can be the envy of the world. And what a fantastic advantage it will be for New Zealand in a year or two's time when, hopefully, we're COVID free and lots of other countries are not. What a great advantage for New Zealand that would be. Chris Bishop in the Bish-bubble. Oh, we're back now with our panel, Dr Jennifer Lees-Marshment, and Thomas Pryor. Thanks for your time again, guys. This Thursday is supposed to be the show-stopping third budget of the coalition. Jennifer, what are we gonna expect instead? That's a good question. I mean, I don't know about the economics, but they're gonna have to do something to frame it in a way that suggests that they feel people's pain, that they understand the challenges ahead and have some kind of idea in terms of how to manage it. But not easy. Not easy? Thomas, do you think that they'll be able to manage that kind of narrative? I think it'll be difficult. And it's interesting, isn't it? You know, last time around it was all about the wellbeing budget. That seems to have been very quickly parked as we focus on essentially what is almost like a wartime budget. And I think, as Jennifer says, that challenge of getting support, but actually, not just doing it in a helicopter way, but getting it targeted to those sectors that need it most. Because one thing about the kind of economic hit of COVID is some sectors are in a lot of pain, others, not so much. So it is gonna require some quite clever targeting. I think the other thing to look out for is just a massive infrastructure spend. I think Shane Jones is gonna be getting that high-vis vest out as much as he possibly can. (CHUCKLES) Is this an opportunity? Winston Peters wants local manufacturing, Jennifer, Shane Jones will be saying, you know, 'Give me more money for the provinces.' Is this an opportunity for New Zealand First? Absolutely, particularly given that they tend to, you know, champion the popular sentiment, and look after people who might get ignored sometimes otherwise. But you just said two people that will be asking for money for particular things. There'll be lots of other ministers and politicians asking for money for other areas. And there's only so much money to go around, and there's less of it than there was. So it's kind of a challenge, really, for Grant Robertson and Jacinda Ardern, because they need to be seen to respond to concerns and those areas of the economy which are doing it toughest, but they've also got to be seen to be good economic managers, particularly going into an election when they're going to be going up against National, which has traditionally had a good reputation for that area. Yeah. Also, Thomas, James Shaw was on the show saying we've got to look forward and the investment that we're doing now has to pay dividends in terms of climate change into the future. But that's going to be a hard sell, isn't it, when people are paying right now? Yeah, I think it will be and good on James for getting up and making that point. I think it's an important one, especially for his constituency, but, again, it will just reveal the tensions within the coalition, because you're gonna have the New Zealand First ministers championing any sort of economic development, ripping back the RMA and just getting things underway. And on the other hand, you've got James talking about climate change and environmental considerations. I think the one challenge for this government will be ` it will require boldness. BAU won't be enough. And equally, actually, for the opposition. I think it's going to be really contingent on National to present an alternative approach, an alternative scenario. We saw a little bit of that last week, but we're gonna have to see boldness from both sides. It'll be fascinating to see who wins that debate. Yeah, Jennifer. Really hard task for National to shine at this time, isn't it? It is and they just keep falling into the traditional role of an opposition in terms of carping at the government in the middle of a crisis. They just tend to look petty and they're gonna erode their traditional brand's strength, which is of a party that understands that leadership involves taking difficult decisions and that there isn't an easy answer. So they've really got to try and pull back from that and instead say we're the party of business, we're gonna work with the public to identify alternative ways and imaginative ways to deal with the new normal. Whereas if they just argue about going back to where we were before ` people aren't looking for that. They know things have changed. Even if we get through the pandemic in New Zealand well, there's still a global crisis all around us. And so people are going to be looking for new ideas ` fresh ideas. If they can do that, then they've got a chance of competing with Labour at the next election. OK, well, let's just look really short-term. We're getting ready for level two. A lot of sense of excitement about that, and then we've got the Prime Minister and Grant Robertson suddenly saying 'phasing'. So what are they trying to do with that kind of narrative there, Thomas? Well, yeah, I think that talk of graded approaches or a 2.5 is really concerning, especially from the business community perspective where if we don't go level two next week, I think the hit on the business community and on SMEs up and down the country's going to be huge. And, frankly, they need certainty. If there's a clear indication of this is what level two involves, this is what will happen when we move there and this is what's required to move there, which is what the government has done to date ` is great. It allows them to plan, it allows them to get ready for that gradual re-opening. So to then start talking about a phased approach or a graduated approach I think is concerning. I think there is real tension within the government on this as well. I think New Zealand First are clearly chafing at the bit, both spoke privately and publicly to go straight to level two. And I must say, when you look at all the indicators, it seems very hard to mount an argument why we shouldn't be going to level two. I understand there's always got to be an abundance of caution ` an excess of caution ` that's absolutely right. But ultimately we are going to have to balance a degree of acceptable risk versus the long-term damage to our economy and to our country by staying in lockdown. OK. Just quickly, Jennifer, are they trying to temper enthusiasm using that kind of language? They need to be careful, because as Siouxsie Wiles from my university has said, we haven't seen the effects, health-wise, in terms of the number of new cases of level three yet. And if they move us too quickly down the levels and then we have we have to go back up, that will cause way more dissatisfaction and way more disruption and stress than if they just take another few days or another week to move down. OK. Thomas Pryor and Jennifer Lees-Marshment, thank you so much for your time. Thank you. Thank you. And that is all from us for now. Thanks for watching, but a special note first. Tune in this coming Thursday Newshub Nation's live budget special. As we've been saying, it'll be a budget like no other. And we'll have interviews with all the key players on air from 1.55pm. But we'll also see you again here at our regular time next weekend. See you then. Captions by Joshua Tait and John Gibbs Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020