Today on Newshub Nation, $400M for tourism. We ask Minister Kelvin Davis to show us the money. On the ground in Washington DC as protests continue to rage across the U.S. And National's new deputy Nikki Kaye on a rollercoaster first fortnight. Kia ora, good morning. I'm Tova O'brien. Welcome to Newshub Nation. Protests continued across the United States this week in response to the death of George Floyd. President Trump is threatening to mobilize the military to restore order, but senior members of his administration are pushing back, saying such a move would be unconstitutional. Pressure is mounting on the government to move to level 1, with only one known active case of COVID-19 left in the country. The Prime Minister will announce cabinet's decision on Monday. Manslaughter charges have been laid against three police officers over the death of a man in custody last year in Hawera. This comes as police consider whether the trial of Armed Police Units should be rolled out across the country. And with me now is Kelvin Davis, Minister of Crown Maori Relations in the era of armed polcie trials, and Minister of Tourism when our biggest exporter is in tatters. Plenty to talk about. Thank you much for being here. Kia ora, Minister. Kia ora. You have $400 million for tourism. Give us a clear idea, a breakdown, of where that money's going and how much has been spent so far. Yeah, I think first of all, though, we need to recognise how much money has gone into the tourism industry as part of our whole response package. So with the Wage Subsidy Scheme, the Small Business- No, let's talk about the $400 million. How much of that has been spent so far? It's important, though, to recognise that billions has gone into the tourism industry already. The $400 million has been split into two, and this is based on the feedback from the tourism industry. First of all, there's a Tourism Transitions Programme to help businesses to adapt to the domestic market. And secondly, the Strategic Tourism Assets Scheme. And it's important that we do protect the strategic tourism assets, because when domestic tourism ramps up and when borders eventually do open, we need to have those businesses there for people to go to. 100%. And you've said the bulk of that $400 million will go towards those strategic tourism assets. You've only announced four million so far, for Discover Waitomo. Businesses have two weeks to apply for that fund. So how are you going to get the bulk of that $400 million out? Hundreds of millions of dollars out the door in a couple of weeks? Yeah, so, we also announced in the week $20 million for the regional tourism organisations ` it's critical that they're able to promote their regions ` as well as the $4 million for Discover Waitomo. There are other applications coming through and as long as the businesses meet the criteria as a strategic tourism operation, then we'll get the money out the door quickly. We wanted to make sure that bureaucracy didn't get in the way the of funds getting out and supporting businesses. You might need to extend it for longer than that two-week period, though, right? Well, we'll see, because we do have applications coming in. We do have a Tourism Recovery Ministers group that receives the feedback from our officials and we make the decisions. But like I say, we want to get that money out the door quickly, because we know that businesses need it and our tourism industry is our biggest industry. And you've had a couple of other successful applications. Given the Prime Minister was supposed to be in Kaikoura on the day that you announced this ` it was cancelled because of the weather ` but can we read into that that Whale Watch Kaikoura is the other successful applicant? So, I'm not going to go into who the other groups are. But there was also, as well as weather issues, a key member of an organisation had a bereavement in the family, so we didn't think it was appropriate to make an announcement then. But there are other businesses that will be receiving funds. But we might see you heading down to Kaikoura this week. And we also understand that AJ Hackett is the other business that's had a successful application. Is that right? Well, like I say, I'm not going to talk about other applications. We'll make announcements when it's right to make those announcements. So, those are also big guys ` Whale Watch Kaikoura, Discover Waitomo, AJ Hackett. Is it as Tourism Industry chief Chris Roberts said that, 'There is no direct support for the thousands of small and medium businesses that make up the bulk of the tourism industry'? So, no, I disagree with that, because if a business is a strategic tourism asset and they meet the criteria, then they can apply, regardless of the size, whether they're a big or they're a mum-and-dad operation. But that's why I also started off talking about our broad response to businesses and tourism businesses have accessed billions of dollars in support through the Wage Subsidy, through the- Yeah, but it's the $400 million, and, actually, when you announced that fund on Budget Day, speaking privately to Newshub, some of your colleagues were aghast at the lack of detail in that announcement that you made, and the tourism industry has been kind of bereft because of a lack of clarity over that announcement. So there's kind of a sense that you're maybe making these things up on the hoof. No. Like I said, during the initial response, once I engaged with literally thousands of people in the tourism industry in online discussions and the feedback was they wanted the regional tourism organisations to be supported, they wanted to support jobs, they wanted the strategic tourism assets to be supported and they needed help with transitioning to the domestic market. And that's exactly what this $400 million has delivered. We'll follow up on that, because you've spent $4 million of a $400 million fund on strategic assets, so I'm interested to see how you get those other few hundred million out the door. Let's move on now to Black Lives Matter ` the movement. Thousands turned out in New Zealand for the protests. As Crown/Maori Relations Minister, why do you think it resonated so much here? You could see the strength of feeling and sentiment, and I think it does resonate across the world. I think across the world we're horrified at what we're seeing. And for us in New Zealand, it's about looking at what we can do to address racism, intolerance and unconscious bias in New Zealand. Now, we're not going to argue that we're picture perfect here in New Zealand, because we're not. But at least we can have those discussions about racism, intolerance and seek to make changes. Clearly, and fairly, New Zealanders, I think, based on the numbers that we saw come out over the weekend ` people don't think enough has been done to address inequalities here in New Zealand, and that was writ large, wasn't it, during the debate over the Police armed response trial? The Labour Maori Caucus, you raised concerns about those trials with the Police, Minister. What specifically are your concerns about the ARTs? Well, we just don't think that our police should be armed. We believe that they do a great job as it is. And, again, they're not perfect and they won't admit to being perfect. But we're fortunate that our police do ` if mistakes are made, they do have a look at what's been done and what can be done better. In terms of race relations in general in New Zealand, I am the Minister of Maori/Crown Relations and I talk about the Treaty of Waitangi being a bridge between the Maori world and the non-Maori world, and that Maori in general have crossed over, understand what goes on in the non-Maori world. But the traffic the other way hasn't really been quite as forthcoming and as Minister of Maori/Crown Relations, my job is to get our government ministries and agencies, our departments and our public servants to cross that bridge. And my vision for New Zealand in 2040 ` the 200 year signing of the Treaty of Waitangi ` is that New Zealanders are flowing across that bridge freely, in both languages, and comfortable in both worlds. And where we need to address racism and intolerance is at either end of the bridge and those people who actually don't want to set foot on it and cross over. Mm. And just to clarify, sorry, so you don't support the extension of that ART trial? No. And that trial is concluded. It's been- And you don't want to see that rolled out? No. The Government expressed our concerns about that trial at the time with the then-Commissioner of Police. And it was an operational matter- But it's a no from you and the Maori Caucus. You don't want to see the ARTs- Certainly, our Labour Maori Caucus has expressed our concern about it and we don't want it to continue. And half of those apprehended during the trial were Maori. There was also a Waitangi Tribunal claim about the complete lack of consultation. Does it reinforce to you that there's systemic racism within our police force? Well, what it suggests is that we've still got more work to do with our ministries and our departments and that to cross the bridge and to walk in each other's worlds. So there is- Is there systemic racism within the police force? Look, I think there is racism throughout New Zealand and unconscious bias and intolerance. Including within the police force? We would be naive to suggest that there isn't across New Zealand. And you've said as well before in the past that the prison system are extremely racist. You've been in the Corrections gig for nearly a term. What difference have you made? Well, I'm glad you asked that question. Look, when we became the Government, the forecasts were that our prison population would be up around 12,500. And we know that half of those people ` over half ` are Maori, despite making up 15% of the population. The prison population, as of last Thursday, was 9,530. Which is still not a cause celebre. No, it isn't. But it is better than where it was heading. So we're about two and a half, three thousand people fewer. We know that at least 1,500 of those people would have been Maori and they're not in prison. Not because we've changed laws or done anything different other than improve efficiencies in our whole justice system. Yeah, but your strategic plan to break the cycle Maori re-offending ` Hokai Rangi ` had a focus on connecting prisoners with whanau. But prisoner advocates are telling us this week that it's a total shambles and it went out the window completely during lockdown. We've got a letter from one prisoner that outlines myriad problems during lockdown, but I want to pull out one thing, because it relates to Hokai Rangi, and that communication with whanau. He says, this is a quote, 'All they give us is a $5 phone card a week to ring family. 'That sucks, because I have a grandmother that is 76-years-old. 'I always try to make sure she is doing okay. 'The Hokai Rangi plan, well, it's not being properly here in this prison. 'A 14-minute phone call a week is very degrading.' How does that square with the promises that you made when you rolled out Hokai Rangi and promised to fix inequality in prisons? Well, we've got to realise that COVID-19 was a very complex situation. We didn't see in our prisons, because of the work that Corrections did, the outbreaks. And if we'd had an outbreak of COVID in our prisons, that would have decimated everybody. Letting a guy call his grandmother. Look, so, there had to be changes to the way things ran. We made sure that everybody received their minimum entitlements under the law. But what we did was we stopped people dying in prisons. I want to pick you up as well, and you're lauding the prison population numbers, but you still haven't set a clear Maori prison population reduction target. You've had this aspirational target to have it compare with the Maori general population in New Zealand, but it's 53%, and that's actually more ` the Maori prison population is greater than it was when you took over. Where have you gone wrong? No. That's not true. The number of Maori in prison has reduced, but we have implemented Hokai Rangi, which is based on a Maori worldview` It's gone from 50% to nearly 53%. And in actual numbers, it's reduced. So, we've implemented- As a percentage of the population, Minister? Hokai Rangi takes a Maori-world point of view. We've got two prisons that have Maori pathways, because access to your language and your culture is a right, not a privilege, even if you are in prison. Our work on that is progressing. COVID has obviously slowed thing down, but what we are doing is we're engaging with communities, whanau, with kaumatua, kuia, and we're making a difference. But all these things take time. We've had the prison system as it is for over 160-odd years and it takes more than just six months since we launched Hokai Rangi to make the changes that we- Yeah, but you've been in the job for nearly a term and last time you came on this programme you said, quote, 'The incarceration rate of Maori is something that cannot be tolerated anymore.' Based on those numbers, and I know you can point to the raw numbers, but actually as a percentage ` the percentage of Maori in the prison population is increasing. You're not only tolerating it, it looks like you're actually making it worse. No, I entirely reject that. We're not tolerating it. We are working very hard to make sure that our whole Corrections and our whole justice system does better by Maori. We're not claiming perfection. We are claiming improvements. We are getting better at what we're doing. Hokai Rangi is a start. It was only launched, I think, in September of last year. You don't change 160 years of a system in six months. We're nearly out of time, but just quickly, yes or no ` Grant Robertson's kind of become an de facto leader of the Labour Party during the COVID crisis. Do you still want that gig beyond the election? Look, I'm the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. In lockdown I was up north, of course. Grant and Jacinda, they're, you know, very good communicators. It was important that we had just a couple of voices giving very clear, concise and consistent messages. Yes or no, do you want the gig after the election? Well, we'll wait for the election and we'll see how things pan out in the election, but the big thing is is that this government has navigated COVID-19 probably better than any country in the world. Thank you very much for your time, Minister. Kia ora, thank you for joining us. Thank you. If you've got something to say about what you see on our show, let us know. We're on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at NewshubNationNZ. Or you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. Still to come, we dissect the week's political news with our panel. Plus, on the ground in a chaotic Washington DC with political commentator Ameisha Cross. Welcome back. Anti-racism protests have swept the United States over the 12 days and nights since the death of George Floyd. And as they enter their second weekend, President Donald Trump is threatening to deploy the military. The protests against the killing of George Floyd that started in Minneapolis six days ago and swept across America... (PUBLIC ENEMY'S 'FIGHT THE POWER') ALL CHANT: Black lives matter! TRUMP: My Administration will stop mob violence and will stop it cold. It does not serve the interest of justice or any citizen of any race, colour or creed for the government to give in to anarchy. BIDEN: It's no time to encourage violence. It's a nation crisis. We need real leadership right now. (SHOUTING, HUBBUB) TRUMP: These are not acts of peaceful protest. These are acts of domestic terror ` an offence to humanity and a crime against God. (PROTESTERS CHANT 'I CAN'T BREATHE') BIDEN: Using tear gas and flash grenades in order to stage a photo op. A photo op. The President held up the Bible at St John's Church yesterday. I just wish he opened it once in a while. I spoke earlier to political commentator Ameshia Cross and asked her about the mood on the streets in Washington, DC, right now. I am in Washington, DC and the mood here is one that is solemn, but also one that is very much ready for change. DC is extremely energetic. We've been met with a lot of resistance from President Trump directly, in terms of the tear gas that was recently shot out. Peaceful protesters ` for peaceful protesters ` just so that he could get his photo op in front of a church in DC. Many of the protesters have been marred as people who are rioting, and at least in this city we have not really seen that, so it's very disappointing that that is a news story that he wants to perpetuate here, in addition to the fact that he is arguing to bring in the military and use military forces in a democratic nation against people who are protesting, which is one of our rights under the Constitution. I wanna talk a little bit more about that in a minute, but does it feel like it's still escalating in Washington? Absolutely, and things are still escalating in Washington because President Trump continues to escalate a race war with the rhetoric that he's using. People in DC, by and large, have been waiting to see change, just like black people across the country, in police brutality and police reforms, but also other things that are affecting the African-American community. The backdrop of all of this is COVID-19. If you're a black person in America, COVID-19 has affected you and your community more than it has anyone else. Talking about the number of deaths, the number of infections, the fact that black people don't have the same access to high-quality healthcare as other individuals in this country. It has really created a perfect storm of disaster, and that's why a lot of people are taking to the streets. And George Floyd's death has been such an incredible global catalyst. What sets his death apart from other similar tragedies that we've seen in the United States? Well, here in the US there have now been` over the past two weeks we have learned of three different people who were murdered ` two of which were murdered by officers ` both Breonna Taylor and George Floyd. But we also had Ahmaud Arbery in Georgia, who was murdered by an ex-police officer in a vigilante justice situation. So we saw video after video of people being chased down, gunned down and, in Breonna Taylor's case, actually murdered while she was sleeping in her bedroom when a police officer ` a police group ` entered the home on a no-knock warrant and were actually looking for someone who they had already had in custody and somehow had the wrong place. Everything was just entirely incorrect. And a young woman lost her life. So I think that here in America, there is just so much frustration around the fact that these stories just keep happening and happening and happening. And there's a sense of being fed up and George Floyd's death was the catalyst. You've got a United States President, you've got Donald Trump tweeting that 'when the looting starts, the shooting starts,' and he's also, as you say, threatening to deploy the military on protesters. How can this situation end when you've got a US President who is further escalating the situation? There is (SIGHS) a mantra among protesters ` 'No justice, no peace.' And I stand behind that fully, because what we're seeing is a president who is absolutely fine inciting race wars and using segregationist rhetoric. The statement that he made, 'When the looting starts, the shooting starts', is one that, if you're black in America, it is not new. It's actually a statement that was made by segregationist George Wallace, it was a statement that was made by Bull Connor when he was siccing dogs and water hoses on individuals who were protesting in the '60s during the civil rights movement. This is something that has a resonating, reverberating and very visceral reaction from African Americans specifically, because we've heard it used over decades when people were trying to protect the status quo and keep black people away from their civil rights and civil liberties as afforded to us by the Constitution of the United States. This president utilising that right now when the tensions are so high, when the expectation is that a president` the President of the greatest nation in the world is not calm. He's not using a voice of calm, he's not using a voice of leadership, he's using a voice to continue to dismantle and to destroy and to disrupt something that we're trying to build. The promise of America has always been one that no matter who you are or where you come from, you come here and you have an opportunity to succeed. That is a bald-faced lie for anyone who is born here and was born here under a melanated skin tone. If you are black in this country, it is very hard for you to reach that rung. It is very hard for you to not be treated like a second-class citizen, and I think that there are many people who are fed up with it and are also equally fed up with a president who is dead-set on continually trying to make black people feel as though they do not belong in the country that we've been in for hundreds of years. So, looking forward to November, how do you think this will change the President's popularity ahead of the election? The President's popularity ahead of the election right now is really underscored by the backdrop of him failing at preparing America for COVID-19. No one can blame any president of any nation or leader of any nation for COVID-19 as an outbreak, but we can look towards a president's leadership once it was here, once they knew and had knowledge of what was going on. And this president started off by telling everybody that it was a hoax. He said that it was contained in China, it would never get here. He glorified medications that doctors and scientists have said don't work with COVID-19. Including bleach. (INAUDIBLE) ...has gone the wrong way. So I think that folks are now very upset, not only because of the police brutality issues, but also because we need leadership and we need leadership very badly right now, and we're just not getting it from the Oval Office and from the White House. So folks are definitely looking to use their voice in November, and I predict that this will be a one-term president. Thank you so much for your time, Ameshia Cross. It was such a pleasure talking to you. Thank you. You as well. Thanks. Up next, the news and politics of the week with our panel. Plus National's Deputy Leader Nikki Kaye on uniting the leakiest caucus in Wellington. Welcome back. I'm joined now by our political panel, lawyer and academic Khylee Quince, and private investigator and former police detective Tim McKinnel. Thank you very much for joining us guys, kia ora. Khylee, let's start with you. Your core area of research is Maori and criminal justice. What does international evidence tell us about armed police? So, seeing as the United States is in the media at the moment, this week, it tells us that there's a pretty high correlation, obviously, between fatal police violence and the arming of police. Obviously it's much easier for police to commit homicide. One third of all homicides between strangers in the United States, a long-term pattern, are committed by the police. And I think a lot of that can be put down to the ease of access to firearms. It's a different context here in New Zealand, though, isn't it. So does it transfer? Well, the risks are there around militarization of police. Once you start equipping our police officers in our communities to look like soldiers, the risk is that they will begin to act like soldiers. And if you look at what's happening in the US, that's very much the case there. And you were a cop, Tim, were you comfortable with guns as an officer? Uh, well, no, never comfortable. They were a necessary tool. And I have some sympathy for the police in terms of their argument that they need to make some adjustments to how they access firearms. But I'm far from convinced that the armed response teams is the way to do that. It's interesting hearing the Minister there, because his comments on the ARTs ` he actually went further than that Maori Caucus statement which was talking about the general arming of police, and now he's saying, actually, he doesn't want to see the ARTs extended beyond that trial. What did you make of his comments, Khylee? I think that's pretty affirming. I think the Maori caucus has finally read the room, and read the Maori community appropriately. Took a while. Where there's been very strong messaging from the Maori community specifically that this is not for us. You know, that if we do get into the militarization and routine arming of New Zealand police, and the people who are going to fare badly from that are us, Maori and Pasifika people. Mm. And, conversely, Maori wardens in South Auckland have said that some elderly actually feel safer with armed police. So how do you balance that with the risks? I think you need to look at the evidence that police have indicated that they're gonna conduct surveys, let's have a look and see what they say. I think there'll be differentiation between different communities, who feels safer with armed police and who doesn't, but, you know, there is no doubt in terms of the evidence that Maori and Pasifika communities are over-policed in this country. And what's your sense, pre-surveys, but what's your sense of which way the police will go? They're currently considering the results of the trial and whether they will extend it. What's your sense, both of you, of which way it will go? So, the Police Commissioner seems to be pretty firm on saying that this doesn't look like it's going to be necessary, really. So we've got some political support, police support, and quite a clear message from the community. And, of course, we've seen during the week that the data from the ART trial is pretty severely compromised. So it can't really tell us very much if we're looking for continued rolling out of a trial that we can't really draw many inferences from. Do you think the same? Yeah, it seems like the trial itself was fundamentally flawed from the very beginning. There's no baseline data from which they compare the ARTs, and, as Khylee's pointed out, the collection of the data has been fraught and totally incomplete, and I think it undermines a lot of what they've done this for. Just picking up on, you mentioned Andy Coster, the new Police Commissioner. What's your sense of how he differs` What's the contrast between him and the former Police Commissioner Mike Bush, maybe for you, Tim. Yeah, I think Andrew Coster is a different breed. He's a different generation. I think he will look at things differently than previous commissioners. He will look at all the evidence, and I think he's quite attuned to Maori and Pasifika issues. And I think we'll see a different approach from him. The Prime Minister's said it's an operational matter, the ARTs, isn't arming police a, kind of, big enough issue, and maybe we saw it from Kelvin Davis today, but isn't a big enough issue that a Government should take a stance on it? You would think so, particularly given that you spoke to Minister Davis about one of his portfolios being Crown Maori Relations. And obviously the kaupapa of that newly-established portfolio is to look at improving the Crown's responsibility as a treaty partner. Now, potentially fatal violence by the police and the perpetuation of systemic racism, surely that's clearly within the bag of that political remit of Te Arawhiti, the Crown-Maori relationship. 100%. And it's all very well, isn't it, to talk about that bridge, but actually, we've seen a complete lack of consultation with Maori on the ARTs. Yeah, I think by their own admission, there was no consultation in the way that this, you know, not only I think with Maori and Pasifika communities surprised by this, but I think were politicians were too in government. I don't think necessarily think they saw this coming. Why do you think` So over the weekend we saw thousands of New Zealanders going out in just immense solidarity with the Black Lives Matters movement in the United States. Why do you think we saw that here in New Zealand? So, my whanau and I were amongst the 4000 in Queen street. Partly, I think` And I have three teenagers, so they were very highly attuned via social media as to what was going on. So it was an opportunity to show aroha and manaaki in terms of solidarity with that particular movement, but also to have conversations about how that resonates with the experience that we've just been talking about, about the long-term negative relationship that Maori have with police. The police tactical response data that shows, consistently, that the use of force, whether you're talking about taser, open hand, firearms, the deployment of dogs, shows huge gaps between the experience of Maori and Pakeha in this country. So there is resonance, I have no doubt whatsoever. And, Tim, do you think that there's a warning for New Zealand with what's happening with police in the United States at the moment? I think so. I see the Police Association president push back against a letter that the Greens wrote, but I` You can't see what's happening in the United States and the way that the militarized police over there are acting and not think that it is relevant here. I think with the ARTs and military look of them, I think we need to be very, very careful how we tread. Is it a turning point in the United States, and could it also potentially be a turning point for us here in New Zealand. I think it's a great way for us to really engage with the issue, and not just sort of drift into militarized policing, which I think other countries have done. We've got an opportunity here to look at it with our eyes wide open. And do you think that this movement, born of tragic circumstances, could actually effect change here in New Zealand. Potentially, yes. Because it gives us an opportunity to talk about race relations in New Zealand, talk about police practices in New Zealand, to talk about the big 'C', colonization, you know, so that's a great learning opportunity, as you say, one born out of circumstances that we wish hadn't happened, but, you know, it's not just an incident, it is a pattern of behaviour, and we have similar patterns of behaviour in Aotearoa. So, yes. And just a final question for both of you, do you think that it will be the end of Donald Trump, or do you think there is a risk as well that it could end up galvanising, perhaps, some of his supporters? Well, I hope it's the end of him. But I've been surprised over and over again over the last three or four years how resilient he has been to these sort of flare-ups. Khylee? I certainly hope it will be the end of him. But they have such a complicated electoral college system that anything can happen. You're not necessarily there by the mandate of the people. Tena korua. Thank you so much for joining us. Up next, Nikki Kaye on new-look National. Plus, will level 1 be safe? New modelling from Professor Shaun Hendy. Welcome back. Following a coup, a victory, a blunder and the shortest leadership honeymoon in memory, National's new Deputy, Nikki Kaye joins me now. Thank you very much for joining us, Nikki. Good morning. Kia ora. Have you unified the caucus yet? Yes, I think we have. I think it's always going to be challenging when you have a leadership change. But I think everybody is very focused on dealing with the economic crisis that we have ahead of us. I'm going to call BS on that, because caucus is supposed to be this hermetically sealed fortress, yet after both of your caucus meetings since the coup, National MPs have been leaking prolifically to us, including this about Todd Muller, his final spiel to MPs last Tuesday, that, 'If you leak, there will be consequences.' That's what Todd Muller told the caucus. Tova, as I said before, it's always going to be challenging when you have a leadership change. But I think there are a few very positive signs for us. One is that we've had two announcements in the last fortnight. They've been received very positively. I think the other thing that I'd say is everybody is out on the ground ensuring that we're doing everything we can to fight for those small businesses out there. It's not going to be perfect, but I'm very confident that we are working hard to win the next election. Well come back to the COVID recovery plan shortly. Sure. But some of your MPs have even told us there could be another leadership challenge before the election, quote, 'Don't discount anything,' said one. Quote, 'It's possible,' said another. That doesn't feel like you're the great saviours, perhaps, that you thought you were. Look, I think that's ridiculous. I think we are very, very focused on fighting hard for small businesses out there, ensuring that we do everything possible in areas like health and education, and we will be fighting` Is it ridiculous, though? Because a couple of months ago you would have been saying exactly the same thing to me about the prospects of a coup before the election. So is it ridiculous? I think it is ridiculous. I think we're very, very focused on good policy. We've got the largest economic crisis of a generation, and National MPs are very focused on that. Nikki, whats your number? What do you need to get the polls back to to prove that you and Todd Muller are better than Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett? Well, we're going to be Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister on September the 19th, so that's the number. What is the number between now and September the 19th, because there will be more polls. You're polling feverishly now with your own internal polls. Whats your number? What do you need to get it back up to? The 42% that Simon Bridges` Well, again, Tova, my view is that New Zealanders need a National Government, otherwise we're going to have debt for generations, we're going to have people working harder and longer than ever before, we're going to have higher taxes. So New Zealanders need us at the helm. Bridges had the party at 43.3% in our February pre-COVID polls. Sure. So if you can't get it back to the low 40s, would you and Muller stand down? Look, we're not going to be standing down. We're going to be Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister` Can you commit to getting it back to at least what Simon Bridges had the party at, pre-COVID? We're going to be planning on winning the election, so we're certainly going to be lifting the polls. And obviously, as you know, it depends on what` You sound uncertain, like you might not be able to` I'm not uncertain at all. So you'll get it into the low 40s before the election? In order to win the election, you have to. I want to quote you something else from your team. This is what a National MP said about you. 'If she'd just shut her mouth and been a good deputy they wouldn't have had that appalling bungle.' What do you think they're referring to? Well, look, again, I don't know who you're talking to, but I do think obviously the comment that I made in terms of Maori representation in our caucus, I very much acknowledge that I made a mistake. And I think part of leadership is owning that. How did you make that mistake? Basically, I was advised by someone in the building. We had had a query in terms of Maori representation. But I was wrong. Yeah, so did you misconstrue that text that you got from Jo Hayes which said` What did that text message say? Look, I'm not going to go into that, Tova. But in terms of` Did Jo tell you that Paul Goldsmith was Ngati Porou? I don't think it's helpful, Tova, to go into` It's good to clear up whether you're throwing her under the bus or whether` Nope. So did you misconstrue it, or did she tell you categorically he was Ngati Porou? I don't think it's helpful at all to say who advised me. The thing that I would say, though, Tova, is I am very prepared, if I'm deputy leader, to stand up and own my mistakes, and I made a mistake. And you apologised to him? Yes, I did. It speaks volumes, though, about the lack of diversity on your front bench, though, doesn't it? On that top 12, not a single Maori MP in your top 12. So was that by design or was that ignorance? Look, I think there's a couple of things. Firstly, the most important thing from our perspective is that we have the most competent team as possible. But what I do acknowledge is that it is very important to have Maori voice within the caucus. We have some extraordinary Maori MPs in National, whether that is Jo, Harete, Shane Reti, Simon, Paula. So I think from our perspective` Two of those were in the leadership duo a couple of weeks ago. But the reality is, Tova, as you know, we are fighting hard to win an election, and we have to have the best team to be put forward on that. Yeah, so... It reeks of ill-informed, misguided judgement, doesn't it, when you're trying to make a Pakeha MP Maori to up the quota of Maori MPs on your front bench. So was it by design or was it ignorance? No, it doesn't. I was advised by someone reasonably reliable in the building. I'm not going to go into who that was, but I made a mistake. And I think the reality is we do need to do more as a country in terms of diversity and representation, but we have been very clear that we need to have the most competent group of people, and we have made decisions on that. How representative is the National Party? Because you have been a strong supporter of the LGBT+ community. Yes. How many LGBT+ members of your caucus are there? Look, Tova, there is no one who has, uh, identified themselves at this point as LGBTI community. Is the National Party a representative party? My view is yes, and this is the frustrating thing. We have Kanwal, we have` An all-white front bench and no LGBT+ members. That is not fair. That is not fair in terms of the representation of our caucus. We have Melissa Lee, the first Korean-born MP; we have` It's fair of who you've promoted, though, isn't it? Well, hang on a second here. We have a number of MPs representing different ethnic communities, whether it's the Indian community, whether it's the Korean community. The reality is there's only a certain number of spots that you have. And we accept as a leadership team that we have to own that representation issue, but from my perspective, if you look at the broader caucus` So you acknowledge there is a representation issue? No, what I acknowledge is that we have both New Zealand's first Korean MP. We have a number of members of parliament who represent the Indian community. We have a number of Maori MPs who are doing a fantastic job within our caucus, and I think it is important, Tova, to acknowledge our representation versus Labour's. And I think we have a number of things to be proud of, whether it's Melissa, whether it's Kanwal, whether it's Parmjeet, whether it is our Maori MPs, but there's only a certain number of spots. Why did you roll Simon Bridges? Because, from my perspective, we're in the greatest crisis of a generation, and I didn't believe that he could win. And why was that? Why did you think he couldn't pull it off? Well, I think there were a number of things. I mean, part of it was` And, you know, we saw the public polls in terms of his approval. But we saw the polls pre-COVID as well, and 43.3% is pretty bloody good. Well, I mean, from my perspective, again, you take into account various information. Part of it was his negative approvals. Part of it was the feedback from the public. Part of it was our party vote. These are all reasonable things. I mean, ultimately here this isn't tiddlywinks. We're fighting for our future, and we had to make a decision, which was, are we going to be able to get a National government which National` which the country need? We need to be able to fight and help those small businesses out there, we need to be able to have people in work, and we made that decision. And it's very, very hard for all involved, but ultimately, New Zealand need a National government. How long were you plotting that? Because about half a dozen MPs ` National Party MPs ` have told me this week, that if it wasn't for a year, it was at least months that you were plotting on Simon Bridges. Well, that is not correct at all, Tova. What I can say to you is that, as I've said before, we were looking at the polls and that was not a year. It was not even months. We literally were waiting to see what the polling information showed because we have a moral obligation to do something, because New Zealand need a National government. I mean, we've got a government right now for which we're in Level 1 we haven't had any explanation by the Prime Minister exactly why we're in Level 1. We're shedding jobs, we've got a really difficult economic situation. As you know, the Deputy Prime Minister is out there making comments about the fact that we should be in Level 1. We don't have any clarity about the trans-Tasman border. We are in a massive economic crisis` OK, so give us some clarity, then. Because if you politically slaughter someone, if you go full Brutus and roll someone four months out from an election, you better be coming out of the traps with a bloody good plan, and here's what another one of your colleagues told me` Sure. Quote, 'National, it's losing this election. It feels like a fait accompli. We're sitting ducks. He, Todd Muller, has no plan, no delivery. And when is he going to land a blow?' Where's the` Well, that is totally incorrect. These are from all different MPs. Within one week, Todd announced our JobStart policy. That was within one week of being leader. We recently announced our Tourism Accelerator policy. So we will have a very comprehensive plan, but right off the blocks we've announced two major policies. And is that enough to save the country from a global pandemic and what could be tantamount to the Great Depression? Well, we've been in the role for two weeks. And what I think people will see is that National have` If you roll someone four months out from an election` National have a comprehensive plan, the best team possible. We have a Labour government that has failed to deliver on major areas like housing and transport, whether it's Kiwibuild or light rail. They're very good at press releases, Tova, but they are not good at delivery. We have a very competent team that will be able to ensure that we rebuild the country. And so I don't` You know, I accept that you're interested in the internal politics of the National Party, but what I'm interested is ensuring` No, I'm interested in your plan as well. And I've seen two policies to date. Yes. I haven't seen a full-blown COVID recovery plan. You said Simon couldn't do it. There were policies that were in place. Where are they? Well, I think we have` We obviously support some of the policies which have previously been announced. So whether it's a GST refund policy, or whether it's the new policies we've announced in terms of JobStart or the Tourism Accelerator. We've been in the role two weeks, but I am very confident that what people will see at this election is a country that is on its knees, a government that has no plan and an opposition with a very comprehensive set of policies and a team that can deliver to get New Zealand out of it. In your kitchen cabinet, Nikki, you've got yourself, Amy Adams and Judith Collins. You've all got more ministerial experience than Todd Muller's big, fat zero ministerial experience. You've also personally beat Jacinda Ardern twice. So, why is it that all of these women do the mahi, and then this dude gets the treat? Why isn't it that one of you three is the leaders? Well, I think there's a couple of things. The first thing is that Todd is extraordinary. He's got a huge amount of business experience, but he's also got a lot of political experience. I mean he started off in Bolger's office. So this idea that he doesn't have political experience is just wrong. I think Judith and Amy are incredible. They have huge ministerial experience. And I think this issue of both competence of the team really comes to the fore when you look at those, well, I'd say three strong women in the top four. And this is the issue as well, Tova; I mean, we've been criticised in terms of diversity, but you name another political line-up where you've got three out of four strong women who would be leading the country. We're running out of time. Just quickly, yes or no, should National work with New Zealand First after the election if given the chance? Well, look, our current policy is no. Yes or no. Our current policy is no. But it could be yes? Our current policy is no. All right, thank you so much for your time, I greatly appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thank you. Stay with us, we're back after the break. Welcome back. With just one known case of COVID-19 remaining, New Zealand could be declared virus-free any day now. Shaun Hendy's data analysis has informed government decisions on COVID-19 every step of the way, and his latest work suggests there's still a risk we'll have a very large outbreak at level 1. Shaun joins me now. Kia ora, Shaun, thank you very much for your time. Kia ora. Your new modelling suggests it's 95% likely we have eliminated coronavirus. Should we be moving to Level 1 ASAP? Yeah, even though we think we have eliminated the virus, well, very likely to have eliminated the virus in New Zealand, the risks haven't completely gone away. We're still having people coming across the border. The numbers have dropped considerably, but, back of the envelope, we might expect to have a new case maybe once a week coming through. And so that means the risks aren't zero to us. And the thing about Level 1, it's got to be something that we stay at for a long time. I mean, it's got to be sustainable and it's got to manage the risks of the potential of reintroduction. One of the things that makes me nervous about Level 1 is the relaxing the size limits on gatherings. Early on we saw the clusters ` the wedding, the St Paddy's Day party, and those are things that still make me a bit nervous about Level 1. So there's a bit of a judgement call around that risk management. The modelling also says that going to Level 1 increases the risk of a very large outbreak from 3 to 8%. More than double. Is that an acceptable risk? Is it worth it? Look, we've got to find a sustainable way to manage these risks, and so, sure, we have to relax some things. People are going to have to stay cautious. The risks are not zero, and so we have to keep up our handwashing. Don't take risks. If you can avoid a large gathering, then don't go to the large gathering. There will be some things that people will be very anxious ` I know there are some people who have been putting off their weddings, for example, those sorts of things. And we don't want to completely stop those. But people still have to be cautious and be aware that those risks haven't gone to zero. And you talked about your concerns about the loosening restrictions around mass gatherings. What are some of the other things, what are the other maybe tougher measures that we should have around Level 1 to mitigate those risks? Well, I think we've got to keep in place strong border controls. And I think that's going to be one of the most difficult things we navigate over the next little while is how we're going to relax the border. Again, there'll be people who have family members in Australia or other parts of the world that they're cut off from at the moment. And of course we know the tourism industry is suffering a lot. So that's going to be a big judgement call by the government as to how they manage that relaxation, whether or not we open the bubble with Australia or to the Pacific Islands. Those are key things that I think are tough decisions. And do you think that that two-week self-isolation period is enough? It can be enough if we manage it really well. We've still got situations where perhaps people are mixing in quarantine in hotels, and that's still a risk. You might come in COVID-free, and then there's someone at the hotel who hasn't tested positive but maybe is symptomatic. And so you could catch that and come out of quarantine and be infectious. So that's still a risk. But of course, that quarantine period, it's quite a disincentive to people travelling and coming here, particularly if you want to go visit a family member in Australia, the idea of doing two weeks' quarantine there and then two weeks coming back means it's quite a significant impact on you. And let's rewind what feels like a lifetime ago, your very early modelling, the initial modelling that the government used as a rationale to move into Level 4 lockdown. You were predicting there could have been tens of thousands of deaths. Did you overstate the risks? Um, you know, that was kind of the worst-case scenario. And the worst-case scenario is still like that. We've kept it out here for now. And if we relax too much, if we switched off the controls, then that's still on the cards for us. You still think we could have up to 80,000 deaths if we don't play our cards right? It's probably not that high. The international clinical data is a little bit better now, and it's brought those numbers down slightly. What we do know now` Did you get it wrong initially? We were using the data that was available at the time. And we've got better data now. One of the things we do know is that the impacts on Maori and Pacific populations would be worse. So we'd slightly bring down those estimates, but then the impact on particular communities in New Zealand, we'd actually revise them up. So did we go into lockdown ill-informed, then, given that that was on data that was perhaps not as comprehensive as we have now? No, I think the error bars` There was some uncertainty when we went into lockdown. But the error bars were clear, right, we were still facing tens of thousands of deaths. How concerned were you when you saw last weekend's protest breaking social distancing rules? Yeah, no, it did concern me. I understand why people want to get out there. Protesting, going to weddings, these are still important things for our society, for our democracy. But people do have to be cautious. And if you did go to the protest, you should have been thinking about masking; potentially isolating afterwards. We have to get used to the constant risk that this disease poses to us over the next couple of years. You've talked a bit about the trans-Tasman bubble, the potential for that, but do you think the Pacific should come first, because there have been virtually no cases? Yes, look, I think the Pacific relies on us, they rely on tourists from New Zealand; their economies are dependent on New Zealand and Australia. And so I think we should be looking quite hard at reopening to the Pacific. Of course, we know from the measles outbreak last year that we pose a risk to them. So we've got to be really clear and really careful that we've got the disease under control here before we put them at risk. And very quickly to end, should we celebrate when that last active case recovers? Or, as you said before, are there just inevitably going to be more cases down the line so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves? Look, we should celebrate. It's a fantastic achievement. There's very few other countries in the world that have got the type of choices that we have, and that's fantastic. So it will be a cause for celebration. But let's not get overconfident. This risk is ongoing and it's something we're going to have to manage over the next couple of years. Thank you so much for your time, Shaun Hendy, I appreciate it. Shaun Hendy there. We're back with our panel, Khylee Quince and Tim McKinnel, thank you guys, again, for joining me. Having heard Shaun Hendy, do you think we're ready for a move to level 1? Either of you can kick that off. Yeah, I'd like to think so. I think my sense from the communities that I work and live in is that people are well and truly ready to move to the next level. Is there any apprehension, do you think still, about that shift from level 2 to 1? Or do you think the country's ready to go? I think the country's largely ready to go. But I think Shaun` Obviously he's the expert, he hit the nail on the head, it's about apprehension around large gatherings. But I think internally, I think we've got a really strong, high levels of social-cohesion. And, you know, ability to abide by the rules, so it's really about the border control, it's about what it means in relation to New Zealand in position to other countries. Would you feel comfortable going to a mass gathering with 500 people, going to a music festival or something like that? I'd think about it very carefully. I mean, one of the luxuries I think with the lockdown and the way things have gone for the country is that we are` We've bought ourselves time to be set up for an outbreak, and so that gives you a little bit of comfort. But I'm not sure if I'd find myself at an event with hundreds of people. I think one of the things that's been interesting is that I think we understand that you can't- You can't live your life just doing what you're told. You know? You have to self-manage, and, you know, Shaun talked about how we're going to live with this. And that can't just be about the stick approach of, you know, this is the rule you've got to stick by. I think people are going to change their behaviour generally. So I know for example in schools, with my children, that, you know, schools are changing the way do sports, the way they do the big events such as graduation, the provision of a school ball. So, irrespective of the rules, people's behaviour is going to change. It is for the older generation` Again, my parents and in-laws, they're older, they're going to self-regulate and manage their behaviour irrespective of what level we're at. So I think that's going to play a big role in how we manage this. It's interesting how we are evolving as a country going into that next phase as well, isn't it? How much does that heightened risk that Shaun Hendy's modelling shows, even though it's a small percent, but it's kind of a doubling under level 1, how much does that concern you? It does concern me. I mean, one of the things that worries me is it was very easy for there to be a substantial outbreak again. It would happen very, very quickly. And we'd lose control of it. So I think we need to proceed with real caution and get on with our lives, but as Khylee said, we need to self-manage and be sensible and smart. And what did you think, Khylee, about what Shaun was saying about that early modelling that helped the Government decide that we should go into lockdown, go hard, go early. It's very interesting that some people have come out and been quite critical of that, but it shows that it worked, you know? It shows that we didn't need to resort to the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, because the fence at the top stopped that. So, as you said, we should be proud of that, and as Tim said, it gave us the ability to buy time in terms of getting our health system able to respond, getting to respond if there is an outbreak. So, yeah, it's concerning, that 3-8% possibility, but I think if it happens, I don't think we need to panic. That's the bottom line. I agree. We've shown we're a sensible, mature country that can manage things like this. So I think we're in a good place. Do you think we needed to be spooked? Because even though we were seeing what was happening overseas, sometimes it does feel a world away, doesn't it? So do you think we needed to be spooked by that 80,000 figure and the Prime Minister coming out and saying tens of thousands will die. We needed to hear that to comply with the lockdown? I think so. I think it was the reality. And if we hadn't been told that sort of information, we might not have got the response from people that we did get. So I` You know, it was a scary number. As we look back with hindsight, that's not realized. It was never close to realized. But I think that the reality is that was a possibility. Nikki Kaye, she got her work cut out for her uniting that caucus? Certainly does, and whether or not the rumours are true that it was a one vote win, it certainly looks that that's a high-probability given that, as you mentioned, there are a number of leaks, there seems to be some discontent, and a non-united caucus. And that's gotta be a concern, only a couple of months out from September. OK. Yeah, and Todd Muller was untested. And we've seen that in the last couple of weeks, that he perhaps hasn't been or wasn't as ready for the role as what he might have liked to have been, and perhaps Simon Bridges forced his hand to some extent. And you don't unite a caucus by threatening them over their loyalty either, do you? So probably quite steep learning curve for these guys. Yeah, that's right. He's` he finds himself in a difficult position. It's a really tough job. People talk about it being the most difficult job in politics, and he's come from almost nowhere into that role. And, just possibly a fool's errand, but just quickly to finish, what are your predictions for the election? What's the result? It's going to be very tough to pull those numbers up for National, so I think it's pretty much going to be a home run or a slam dunk for Labour. It's really about the partners. Can Winston get home? Can Shane perhaps win an electorate? Then they're going to be struggling to get to 5%. I don't think the Maori Party's going to make a comeback, so Labour ` yes; Labour and who? I don't know. Greens looking strong. Yeah. I agree with that. I think there's a real risk for those smaller parties and the Greens and New Zealand First in particular are at risk of disappearing. Thank you both again so much for joining us. It's recess at Parliament next week and MPs appear to need it with tempers flaring and cheap shots firing for four days straight in the Chamber. Here's Finn Hogan with the week that was in Wellington. The COVID ceasefire across the political aisle is well-and-truly over with MPs wasting no time getting at each other's throats this week. Sorry, Dr Smith? NICK SMITH: Stop copying her. Oh, turn it up, ya bloody loser. That's a low-down, dirty, rotten perspective... (MPs CALL) ...on what our wonderful Prime Minister said yesterday. He knows that, and this house knows that. Disgraceful, again, from Mr Reti. Gerry Brownlee tried his best to call out the government's language. I think it's inappropriate for any minister answering a question to refer to a statement made and recorded in Hansard as low-down and dirty. But Trevor Mallard was keen to let a little mud-slinging slide. I'm relatively prim and proper myself, but I think... (MPs LAUGH) (CHAMBER LAUGHS) All right. Maybe I shouldn't do irony in rulings. I think low-down and dirty is not quite as low-down and dirty as many things that have been said here. It wasn't all negativity, however, with NZ First leader Winston Peters full of praise for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. On behalf of the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister, one of the most persuasive people I've met. (CHAMBER CRACKS UP) And while Mr Peters clearly enjoyed taking this dig at David Seymour ` I'll answer the questions, sunshine, when I get to that, all right? It did set off this tense Seymour-Speaker stand-off. Sorry, grandpa. Is she aware of the reasons why` MP: Aw, point of order! Mr Speaker, as you said earlier, it's a term of endearment. MALLARD: I'm not going to have this subject debated again. Fresh point of order, Mr Speaker. On a different issue? Yes. I seek leave to ask an additional supplementary question. Is there any objection to that? There is. Oh (!) All right, member will leave the Chamber. Well, that's it from the House for a couple of weeks. We wish the MPs a restful recess, and hope that when the House next sits, every MP is enjoying their job as much as Winston Peters. That's all from us for now. Thank you for watching. See you again next weekend. Captions by John Gibbs, Joshua Tait and Tracey Dawson. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020