Today on Newshub Nation ` the woman standing between us and COVID-19 at the border, Megan Woods, joins us live. New Zealand First's Tracey Martin on scrapping for survival as the bottom drops out of the party's polling. And head-to-head with Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central ` Chloe Swarbrick on why the seat should be hers. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 Kia ora, good morning. I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation. In the headlines this week ` plans for light rail from Auckland's CBD to the airport have been halted after New Zealand First pulled the handbrake. Transport Minister Phil Twyford said he hopes to revive the delayed project after the election. The government has revealed it's unlikely to charge Kiwis returning to New Zealand before October. Isolating them for free will cost taxpayers almost $400 million if it continues until the end of the year. And the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating worldwide, with the United States reporting a record 39,000 new cases in 24 hours. The global total now approaches 10 million infections and half a million deaths. Closer to home, we have 14 cases ` all at the border ` and no detected community transmission. But we've learned that some of that was good luck, not good management. Political editor Tova O'Brien has spent her week covering the bungles at our border, and so I asked her how she would describe the relationship between Health Minister David Clark and Ashley Bloomfield. Yeah, Ashley Bloomfield is a consummate professional, so he's never going to undermine his health minister publicly ` or even privately, for that matter. But the fact that he's basically had to step up and be the de facto health minister during the COVID response speaks volumes about what that relationship has turned into, and it's very hard to imagine that there aren't tensions within it. Perhaps if Ashley Bloomfield had actually been given space and time to do his actual job, which is running operational things, perhaps some of those things that the government got wrong during the COVID response ` like the lack of PPE, like the low levels of testing in the early stages and now these border issues ` perhaps Ashley Bloomfield would've been able to better manage those mismanagements of the government. And then I think as well the response, the public response to that video of David Clark throwing Ashley Bloomfield under the bus while he was standing right next to him ` that visceral response from the public, that speaks to which side of that debate they're on. Yeah, it was such an unpopular move by David Clark to throw Ashley Bloomfield under the bus. Do you think he can survive as Minister of Health? It's impossible to see, I think, the Prime Minister sacking her health minister so close to the election and while we're still in the midst of a global pandemic, but if David Clark keeps screwing up, if he keeps mismanaging his portfolio, that starts to make a mockery of the Prime Minister and her managing of her cabinet, and that's arguably just as damaging as sacking a minister during an election campaign. If the Prime Minister's able to form a government again after September the 19th, it's hard to see David Clark having any more than a snowflake's chance in hell of holding on to that health portfolio. So, Megan Woods has been brought in to clean up the mess. How's this gonna change things? Yeah, Megan Woods is one of the Prime Minister's very strong, competent ministers. She's a micromanager, so you won't see those same problems that you saw under David Clark's management of that part of the health portfolio, of that management of the borders and quarantines. But that also speaks to the fact that David Clark does need to take responsibility for those issues. The fact that Megan Woods and the military were brought in to fix those things up ` that suggests that David Clark wasn't handling them correctly in the first place. Tova, thank you. All right, so, political editor Tova O'Brien saying that Megan Woods is the right person to manage a crisis like this. Dr Woods joins us now from Christchurch. Good morning, Minister. Thank you for your time today. Good morning. Yeah, good morning. You've had a week now in your new role. When you stepped in, by any measure, the border was a bit of a shambles. You've received an audit of what's been going on. What does that say? So, we'll be releasing that tomorrow, but, look, I do want to go back and say the description that you offered of how it was I don't think is a fair representation. I think there were some issues that were there in terms of the operation of the policy intent to be doing those tests ` certainly something that we've got under good control. Air Commodore Webb and I have now visited six of the facilities and seen what's happening on the ground, and actually, I think, by and large, most people in the facilities realise that when they're coming home, they've got a part to play, that they need to isolate and keep themselves safe to keep New Zealanders safe. Let's push back on that, Minister. I mean, you've been brought in. Air Commodore Webb has been brought in. You've not only had the couple of ladies that were released early and then diagnosed with COVID, but you've also had all these other reports of mixing of quarantine and isolation in different flights. All those kinds of things add up to a bad picture. So, I think one of the things that were diagnosed right at the beginning in terms of what some of the issues that needed to be addressed pretty swiftly were, certainly of what we've seen when we've gone over the six facilities. First of all ` and the Prime Minister made this very clear when she asked Air Commodore Webb to take operational lead across the facilities ` is that as we moved from that immediate response emergency phase, as you do in any disaster, to a more long-term solution, that you needed to have clear lines of accountability and responsibility. I think that's been made very clear. That's both Air Commodore Webb and myself at an operation and a political level. I think making sure that we had those tests taking place ` that's absolutely critical. And just the third element, Simon, that I think we needed to make sure of is that the rules and procedures that were in place around the physical distancing at the facilities are well understood. They're well operationalised, and they're well put into place in each of those facilities. You've mentioned the tests ` let's just quickly go through a couple of things. Can you assure the public that people in isolation and quarantine are being tested on days three and 12? So, the first assurance that I want to give every member of the public is no one is leaving a facility without a test that is checked off by the operational lead at a hotel saying, 'This person does not have COVID.' The policy says day three and 12, though. I'm coming to that, so, yes, yes. And the day-three tests are also being carried out. I've asked from next week to get daily reporting on how many tests have been carried out and how many tests should have been carried out. And that's something that when Air Commodore Webb and I have our weekly morning meeting` sorry, our morning meeting, not weekly meeting, our meeting each morning, we'll go through how many of those tests took place, how many tests should have taken place. So we'll be monitoring that very closely. Yeah, I understand. But surely that reporting should have been in place since day one. Bear in mind that the requirement for day three and day 12 testing only came in on the 9th of June. Yeah. So day one's not actually that long ago. Look, the important thing is that this is something we'll be tracking daily and that we will be keeping a very close eye on. But I think I want to go back to that point that no one is being released from a facility without there being the notification to the operational lead at the facility, and that operational lead at the moment is a member of the New Zealand Defence Force, says, 'Yep, this person's got a test. They're negative. They're good to go.' That's now, but 632 people who left quarantine between June 9 and 16 and 17 have not been found. You're still chasing them. So is that acceptable? That's the work the Ministry of Health is doing around the going back over those people, the contact tracing. But look, I think one of the things that we also have to look at on the other side of the ledger is the record numbers of surveillance testing that we've been having over the last few days. We've been talking 9000, 10,000 tests a day. This is unimaginable even three days ago. So in terms of that surveillance testing` That's because people are anxious out in the community because of the border bungles, and so you're getting that flow-on effect into the community testing centres. But Simon, the important thing is none of those tests, to this stage, have come back positive. Please remember, and everyone needs to remember, that the most important public health measure that we can take to stop COVID within our managed isolation facilities, and to stop community transmission, is isolating people for 14 days. And that was happening. The testing is an extra line of defence. It's one we will have in place, and people can have that surety around that. But the most important public health measure is keeping people isolated for 14 days so that we can protect the gains that we all made here in New Zealand. So, a couple of things there ` 71 people are refusing tests. Now, you're going to tell me that that's the health department's responsibility, but can you guarantee that you are forcing people to have tests... now? I mean, because 71 people are refusing to have them. So, the 71 people you're talking about have already left the facilities. But, so` So, that's` Yeah. But in terms of what happens now... But now you have the power to force them. Yeah, well, absolutely. The order requires people to make themselves available for a test at day three and a test at day 12. A child under 6 months ` you certainly wouldn't be swabbing them in the way in which we need to swab for COVID. It wouldn't be safe, and nowhere in the world does that. So, can you reassure us about the physical distancing and the intermingling between different kinds of people and levels of quarantine and isolation? Reports on Newshub last night, again, that there was still a problem at the Novotel in Auckland. Epidemiologist Sir David Skegg said any kind of mixing of different stages of quarantine or isolation is absolutely hopeless. Can you reassure us? Yeah, and I think` Yeah, and I can reassure you from what I've seen at the six facilities that I've visited. In fact, I've seen very few of the returnees. What I've seen is an incredibly dedicated workforce, and I would like to thank those people that are working very hard to keep us all safe. So, what happens when a new cohort arrives from a plane? They're bussed in from the airport, and they arrive at the facility. What Air Commodore Webb has asked is that there be no one else in that area as a new cohort arrives except the people that are required to check them in. They are then checked off against the manifest ` who should be arriving who should've been on the flight. They are given a health check; they're not given their test, cos that doesn't happen till day three, for very good health reasons. They're then assigned to their rooms. The expectation is that people are in their rooms except for when they want to go out and walk around a defined area... at the hotel or taken, from some facilities, to an area where they can get some fresh air and some sunlight and some exercise. And so what I have seen is not having mixing and mingling, and I think we just need to go back and realise that some of the problems that are being reported, that we're seeing, I certainly am not seeing when I'm on the ground at the motels. And I would like to point out ` we're not always giving a whole lot of time before we turn up. OK, good. That's good that you're doing audits like that. What about the numbers returning? How many more hotels are you going to need? Because it seems like there's more than expected. Oh, it's not more than expected. I think something that people have to realise, Simon, is this is entirely demand-driven. The people that we're talking about returning now are New Zealanders coming home. There is a legal requirement for New Zealand to allow these people to enter. This is New Zealand citizens and New Zealand permanent residents. And so where are you going to put them all? So, where we're going to put them ` it is into managed isolation and quarantine facilities, if required. So, one of the things that we're tracking daily is the incoming and the outcoming flows. We're working with the airlines. But one of the things that makes this probably one of the most complicated operations I've ever seen in my life is that we don't have any certainty and cannot have any certainty around how many people are going to be on each plane until the plane shuts its door. New Zealanders are notoriously bad about giving forewarning of their intent; think about the last time you asked for an RSVP. Sure. So until people actually board that plane` But what we do know is that during Level 4, we were seeing 10% loading on planes. We're up to about 30% loading on the incoming commercial flights now. So will you need to expand the number of facilities? Are you going to put them in other cities? Are you going to go to Hamilton? Are you going to go to other cities? Look, we're tracking that there's more facilities being brought on in Christchurch, for example, this weekend. We visited yesterday, in Christchurch, one of the hotels that will be coming on. There's very clear criteria around the hotels that can be brought on, but they are being brought on in a managed way to meet the demand as it occurs. One of the things that we're very conscious of and very prudent in terms of the cost to New Zealanders on this is we're not going to bring on hotels until we have people to put into them, so we know for a fortnight out` It's going to cost a lot, right? It is. So are you going to force Kiwis to pay for some of this? So, I'm doing the policy work at the moment. There is a position that` We cannot have impediments to New Zealanders coming home. We all have a right to always come back to New Zealand. So legally, you can't make that? You can't force them to pay for it? That's the policy work that we're working through. We're seeing that Queensland is starting to pay, so I'm very interested in the system they have there; it's co-payment. But what we have to make sure is that we're getting that fine balance of fairness between the inalienable right of New Zealanders to come home ` and I think we all want to know that we'll always have that right ` against the fairness to the taxpayer. But we all need to remember that this money we're spending is a lot of money, but this is our very strong line of defence that is protecting the position that we got to through our sacrifice. We do not have community transmission of COVID in our country at the moment. The Prime Minister clearly considers that you're up to the job. It's the second time you've been brought in to clean up a mess. What do you personally get out of having to parachute in to clean up another minister's problems? Look, I think this is an important job for New Zealand. It is important that we get this right. I like detail. I like looking at the daily ins and outflows of people and making sure that we've got a robust system in place that is tracking against that. When the Prime Minister asked me to do it, I was only too pleased to do it. All right. Minister Woods, thank you so much for your time this morning. Thank you. If you've got something to say about what you see on the show, please let us know. We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram ` NewshubNationNZ. Or you can email us at nation@mediaworks.co.nz. Still to come ` we dissect the week's political news with our expert panel. Plus ` the polls are bad, and the leader's going a bit rogue. New Zealand First's Tracey Martin joins me live. Welcome back. The polls are low, and the policy handbrake is on. This week, New Zealand First sank light rail. And it's not the first time the party's broken ranks with its coalition partners. TOVA O'BRIEN: The Justice Minister forced to pull a keystone policy at the last minute. I will not be taking a proposal to repeal the three-strikes law to Cabinet today. Andrew Little's plans were hobbled by this guy. The coalition government has ruled out implementing a capital gains tax. Prime Minister, did New Zealand First bully Labour? No. Is this a New Zealand First-led coalition? No. What does this say about the state of the coalition that you can't agree on a capital gains tax? It says that this is MMP. I get letters all the time saying people are in the market for a more efficient car, and price is a factor. The reality is there is no possibility we can go forward with the cars that we've got now. But now his party's blocking the policy. And we genuinely` in order to progress our goals, genuinely work together. The government's flagship transport project, light rail from Auckland's CBD to the airport, has reached the end of the line ` a casualty of the coalition. But ultimately, we weren't able to convince New Zealand First to support it. Are you getting sick of New Zealand First railroading progress? Look, ultimately, this is an MMP government. This is not dysfunction junction, like the previous administration. (LAUGHS) We know what we're doing, OK? The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll has New Zealand First on 2. Well, she's ranked third in New Zealand First, and she was on the committee that negotiated the coalition agreement. Does she think that her leader is honouring that agreement? Tracey Martin, Children's Minister, joins me now. Thanks for your time. Kia ora. Kia ora. 2% in the polls ` that's below the ACT Party. Did you ever think that you'd get that low? I always find polls fascinating and pointless. Pointless? Pointless, really. What, we've had nine MMP elections, and every single one of them, people have said New Zealand First won't get back, and only in one did we not get back. OK. And we were so close then. Right. OK. In July 2017, in the lead-up to that election, you were polling 11%. Your actual election result was 9%. Yeah. Way off where you are now. Oh, well, that is true. And it was a different election then, and everybody knows it was a different election from the perspective of where was Labour tracking at that moment, and then what happened? So, yeah, it's true ` I'd love to be at 11% now. We're not, but does that mean that I'm quitting tomorrow? No, it certainly doesn't. No? You're not worried? No, I'm not worried, because at the end of the day, one of the other interesting things about your little snippet there was we are in a coalition at the moment. We are keeping our word in that coalition, which is that we are creating stable government all the way up to the day that electioneering starts. So we haven't even started electioneering yet. And once we start putting out our policies, then let's have a look at what the polls do. OK , but what do you put it down to that you're doing 2%, 2.7%, 3% in most recent polls? I put it down` Is it the fact that you're being a handbrake on the coalition? Well, every single thing that this coalition government has achieved has needed New Zealand First to agree to it. Hmm. So, what we've seen is, as the Prime Minister keeps pointing out and Winston keeps pointing out and James Shaw keeps pointing out, we are in an MMP environment. Sometimes we don't agree. My coalition partners and their supply-and-confidence partner have disagreed with some of the things that I would have liked to have got through as the Minister of Internal Affairs. But that's just how life is. I would just say that in terms of New Zealand First's flagship policies, I don't think you've really got stymied on any of them by the coalition. Well, we negotiated them at the time of creating the government. Light rail wasn't negotiated with us. Three-strikes wasn't negotiated with us. So those things weren't negotiated. A lesson for Labour ` come in and negotiate stuff at the beginning, not halfway through. So you're saying Labour's not a skilled negotiator when it comes to coalition partners? I'm saying there were lessons learned, and there were lessons that need to be learned out of the negotiations. So they should learn from you? I'm happy to give them some lessons. (LAUGHS) OK. I'd just push back on that, though, because you are in Cabinet, and you are agreeing to things, and you did agree to the government's policy statement on transport, and that specifically said light rail, and that's ticked off by Cabinet. Yeah. So, we agreed to investigate. And then as that investigation has gone forward... You can't just write a blank cheque for some stuff, right? And COVID happened in the middle as well. So there are some things that came out of the procurement and the conversations that Phil had been having with possible people who could build that that gave New Zealand First enough concerns that we felt we couldn't support it and that they needed to take it back to the polls. Are you putting the kibosh on a project which will create jobs at a time when we really do need jobs? Well, we have said that we cannot support this project at this moment. We are, through the PGF and through other things, creating massive amounts of jobs. In this particular project, you don't just get a blank cheque to go off and run away with it. Labour needs to take it to the polls. What about the allegation from James Shaw that New Zealand First is not living up to the good faith agreement in the coalition agreement? Well, sometimes, James actually goes and talks to the papers before` when I haven't finished talking to James. So, you know, that's a little bit about the shift around electric vehicles. We thought we were still having a conversation, but then James put something in the paper. So, are you frustrated with your coalition partners? Look, everybody, when you are working in a really heightened environment like this ` because we're talking about a country's future ` and an MMP government is hard work. So, I constantly have conversations with members of the Green Party, but we don't always agree. And nor do they agree with some of the work that I am trying to get through. OK, let's just look at the election before we move on to other topics. You are standing in Ohariu. I am. And also, Shane Jones is standing in Northland. With polling around the way it is at now, New Zealand First needs an electorate seat. Yes. OK. So would you push for a deal with Labour? Would you say, 'Hey, Labour, give me a free ride in Ohariu so we can get back in and be a coalition partner'? No. No? No. I mean, I don't believe in free rides. I believe that` I picked Ohariu because, one, I live there most of the time during the week. And secondly, because it's a thinking electorate. And I really like putting forward, rather than shouting matches in politics, I'll put forward my ideas. Let the other guys put forward theirs. And let the people vote. And Ohariu is a thinking electorate. Would you be happy to sit on... Post-election, would you be happy to sit on a coalition negotiation with National? Oh, we will do exactly` I mentioned it before. Given half a chance, I will go in and negotiate on behalf of New Zealand First with both major parties, again, to see what is the maximum of policies that New Zealand First can get across the line. Is it a deliberate tactic by your leader, Winston Peters, to go out there and be seen to be a handbrake or stymie some policy to give him more oxygen leading up into the election? Well, if it is, it's not a policy that he's articulated to me. We sit inside our caucus, and our caucus makes these decisions. So the Right Honourable doesn't tell us what to do and we're just all nodding heads. There are things that we have not been able to support. There's lots, isn't there? There are things that Labour have not been able to support. Three-strikes law, electric vehicle 'feebate' scheme, capital gains tax, light rail, commercial rent relief, cameras on fishing boats. There's a few others as well. Well, actually, cameras on fishing boats is really interesting. We haven't blocked cameras on fishing boats. There have been some quite strong reasons that Stuart Nash has talked about inside of Cabinet about why that isn't feasible in the time frame that was given. So, you know, sometimes people write stuff that isn't necessarily true. Oh, if we can see what was happening in Cabinet, that would be handy. Well, get Stuart Nash on and get him to explain that for you. But there's quite a list of other ones as well, you know? Yeah, well, again, there are several pieces of work that in my portfolios and from a New Zealand First perspective I would like to advance. I just don't happen to go into the newspapers when I can't advance them. Right. All right. Let's talk about one of the` in terms of what you are trying to advance at the moment. You're the Minister of Internal Affairs, which oversees gambling. And there are problems with online gambling. You're planning to reform that. Why are you planning to do that? Well, first of all, when I first came in this seat, it became obvious that the offshore online gambling environment is completely unregulated. They can't advertise here, but there is no laws that stop New Zealanders going off into the offshore online environment. And yet we have an onshore environment that is quite regulated. So, we've only got the TAB and Lotto. There's about $200 million a year. Kiwis are spending $200 million? Offshore, yeah. So, there's no trusted provider, no harm minimisation, no community benefit. So, I began that piece of work, but over COVID, it got worse. We had, like, a 20% increase of New Zealanders that were actually going offshore to do online gambling. So people, during lockdown, are spending more money offshore even though their future's uncertain due to COVID as well? Absolutely. And some started. So, in a survey that was done, there was 20% of those that were gambling offshore online, they had either increased their gambling or they were first-time gamblers. What can you do about offshore gambling? I mean, it's not in your jurisdiction. You've got no power over it. Well, you kind of can. So, the first thing you have to do ` and I went and spoke, in Canada, with their gambling organisations and so on ` so, one of the things you can do is you can create an online environment in your own nation that draws your people to it. And you promote the fact that it's trusted providers, harm minimisation at the lead of everything and community benefit. And then you can start to block your borders. Electronically? Mm. OK. What about the charity money over the same period? I mean, pubs and clubs have not been able to operate. That's right. And so there's been no pokie money. Yeah. And that's over $300 million a year that goes back into the community from Class 4 or pokie machines through, like, the Lion Foundation and so on. So, are you saying that a lot of charities are not going to be getting any money? Well, we're worried. We are worried. But it's a little bit early, actually, because we did quite so well for that period of time, and we've put in some supports just through changing some regulation and some part of the statute for those businesses, where it's too early to say how badly that will be hit. But at the same time, I happen to be the Minister of Lotteries, so the Lotteries Board, I'm the chair of that, we've come together, and the Lotteries Board has agreed to create a COVID fund. And so we are looking to support those communities that normally get Class 4 money in a different way, if we can. Via lottery? Via lottery if we can, yeah. OK, all right. Tracey Martin, thank you very much for your time this morning. Kia ora. Yup. Up next, we dissect the news and politics of the week with our panel. Plus, Chloe Swarbrick on why she'd make a better Auckland Central MP than Nikki Kaye. Welcome back to The Pitch, where we give an MP just five minutes to sell you on their ideas. This week ` Green Party MP Chloe Swarbrick on why she should win the hotly-contested seat of Auckland Central. My past two and a half years in politics, if it's taught me anything, it's that there is a really good local MP, but then there is somebody who also takes and recognises those issues that people are facing in their communities and advocates for systemic change in the halls of power to stymie the flow of those issues in local communities. What are those issues in Auckland Central? So, they are public transport, walking and cycling. They are cost of living. They are rising homelessness and inequality. They are massive amounts of pollution, particularly in Waitemata Harbour. All of those green issues have green solutions. So, even Jacinda Ardern couldn't win that seat off National. What makes you think that you can? I think that 2020, as an election year, is quite a different beast to those that we have faced in the past, particularly because people have seen, under COVID-19, that all of these things that we were once told were politically impossible are actually just a matter of political willpower. Who is willing to stand up and do things when it isn't necessarily politically convenient? I think it's abundantly clear that the Greens have always done things when they are the right thing to do, not just when they are politically convenient. Green Party vote, though, has declined there consecutively in the last three elections. How are you gonna turn that around? We turn that around by running the largest campaign ` the biggest, most energetic and exciting campaign that that electorate has seen in a very long time. Labour and the Greens, if you put their votes together last election, National wouldn't have won that seat. Aren't you just gonna split the vote again? No MP... is ever entitled to people's votes. Ever. So Labour shouldn't stand aside? I am saying that no politician is ever entitled to expect that votes are just going to flow to them. My job, as a member of Parliament, as a representative, as a politician, as an activist, as an advocate, is to get out there and tell people why it is so important that we have a strong core Green heart in the next government and why I think that green solutions are critical to solving the problems that Auckland Central faces. It could be very important for you to win that seat, though. The Greens are polling around 5%. There is a chance that vote isn't high enough to get back into Parliament. My focus remains growing the Green Party vote, because we all know that we need a strong Green contingent to continue progressing the massive gains that we have got in this term of government. But on top of that, Auckland Central is my home, and it is the intersection of all of these Green issues. So, let's talk about some of those local issues. Transport has always been a big one in Auckland. We've just seen the plan for light rail scrapped due to New Zealand First. That was a key part of your agreement with Labour, and three years later, it hasn't got done. Why not? Importantly, Connor, it hasn't been scrapped. So, the process there ` and it's really important for people to notice` But it's back to square one three years later. It is back to the 2018 proposal signed off by Cabinet. Yes, sure, there was another investigation of an alternative option. We humoured the Labour Party in undertaking that. We have always advocated for that original proposal, and, actually, it is far more brilliant in that we are going to be enabling Aucklanders and Auckland Council to have greater participation in the outcome. Isn't there a bigger issue there, though? Because New Zealand First also blocked the incentives for electric vehicles. We haven't seen a Green transport card. Some of these key policies just haven't got done. Have you guys accomplished enough this term? We have done a massive amount, punched massively above our weight, with eight out of 120 MPs in Parliament. We have passed the greatest changes to ensure climate action in this term of Parliament ` more than the last 30 years of Parliament combined. We have increased the DOC estate. We have doubled, just this week, the Maui and Hector's Dolphin protected area off the coast of Aotearoa New Zealand. Could you do a lot more without New Zealand First? Would you support them in government next time around? I think that it's up to voters to decide where we end up with regard to creating the next form of government. But would you work with them? Uh, look, Connor, this is ultimately all down to what our membership` the Green Party is one of the most democratic parties in our Parliament, and I think everybody will recall that 150 members call that we had to ratify the confidence and supply agreement. We'll finish with a few rapid-fire questions about your electorate. What's the average household income in Auckland Central? The average household income in Auckland Central would be around 60. It's around 84,000. What percentage of people in the electorate rent? Uh, a majority. It's just over half. What was the Green Party vote there last election? The Green Party vote there last election would have been around 20%. Around 14%. When's the last time the seat wasn't held by National? Uh, it would have been five terms ago. 2008 Labour lost it there. So how confident are you that, this time round, it'll be yours? Everything is new in 2020, Connor. Auckland Central also happens to be one of the youngest electorates in the country. Absolutely, I'm not going to deny that there is not massive task in turning out those voters, but they need to be excited. And I absolutely disdain any kind of commentary that these people are apathetic. These people want something to believe in, and I guarantee you that they will fight for it when they see it. Chloe Swarbrick there. Now it's time for the panel. With me today are political commentators Shane Te Pou and Trish Sherson. Thanks for your time. Trish, how damaging have the border bungles been for Labour? Well, I think they've been at least nine points damaging, as we've seen this week from the polls. The problem is they really strike at the heart of what Labour's` what their winning card has been, which has been the Prime Minister, right? And this has eroded trust and confidence. It's also called into question her ability to manage through the hard times with her people. So if we take David Clark as the example, how on earth he is still in a job, I don't know. So not only has she let him roll through lockdown being an absentee minister and doing absolutely nothing during that; she's let him come back and now pick up and take on what was the most important thing, which was border security being an abject failure, and he is still in a job. And the thing with Clark is this week he didn't even realise` not only did he not have the political capital to publicly have a crack at Ashley Bloomfield, who also isn't blameless in this debacle, but he didn't have the nous to think, look, potentially there is a path for me to at least claw back some political capital by taking a bit of responsibility. It's been a shocker. (LAUGHS) OK. Would you agree with that, Shane? Oh, absolutely, absolutely, yeah. Actually, there was an 18-point shift when you think about it, eh? Nine up and nine down. But here is the thing, that this is now really starting to affect the Prime Minister's personal brand. Look, Prime Minister, if you can't sack someone, hire someone that can. No one can understand why him and Twyford are not only still around, but in Twyford's case, he got promoted up on the list. No one can understand that. Tova O'Brien says there's no way she's going to sack her health minister with a pandemic on in the lead-up to the election. You don't buy into that? It's going to be tough to sack him this week. She should have sacked him last week, of course. But I think King will deliver a... deliver another bungle. Think about this, right. If your health minister is not up to it during a pandemic, that is absolutely the time to get rid of him, because right now is when we need to trust in him and the whole system, and nobody does. It's actually become a joke. This guy went missing in action during lockdown. But is the problem that there's nobody to replace him? But that is a bigger problem for the government, and that is not the public's problem, right? That is Jacinda Ardern's problem, because she has had a lot of weak links in that Cabinet, and look at what's happening now. You shuffle poor performers sideways, and you lump everything on to someone like Megan Woods. And, again, that is only putting more stress on an already creaking apparatus. All she needs to do is fill a gap for 12 weeks. You've got people that can do it. You put someone like Parker in there, or you give the de facto minister Megan Woods the job proper. OK, but are we just being too kind to Ashley Bloomfield here? Is the public being too kind to Ashley Bloomfield? Because it was his responsibility at the time. I think he does need to take some responsibility, but this is about, you know, this guy did lead us through the tough times. He did front up day in and day out. I think the average Kiwi thinks he's got more credibility. So he does have credibility and capital with the public? And he's got capital with the public. Absolutely. I think that's absolutely the thing. He fronted up to work every single day. He was there through that. And as someone said to me this week, it's a case of nobody puts Bloomie in a corner. (LAUGHTER) You know, the outpouring of outrage, because I think we, as Kiwis, we are inherently fair, and we felt that this was absolutely` it was a dick move. And we don't like that, as Kiwis. OK. Let's talk about a possible` some of the issues around the border, though. I mean, we've got people coming in, sometimes more than expected. Megan Woods, in that interview, was saying it's really hard to work out, because Kiwis don't RSVP. They're thinking about prioritising. Some Kiwis have been away for a long time, expats, go down the list. Would that be acceptable? I don't see how you can put that in. Well, you know what, they're gonna give us at least three hours' notice, because they've gonna fly from, say, Sydney or from Europe or wherever. These flights are scheduled, actually scheduled, days and weeks in advance. So just to say they turn up... I don't actually buy. No. And let's be clear about this. The bigger issue is this ` that this morning, thankfully, Megan Woods said, 'I am getting daily numbers,' and the kind of numbers we should have expected months ago, right? So the minute we came out of lockdown and flights were allowed to come back, these should have been the numbers that Ashley Bloomfield and the Prime Minister or whoever wanted to turn up to those daily press conferences, those were the numbers that we should have immediately rolled into. And I think what I've been hearing this week and the reason why Kiwis are pretty grumpy is that this seems to be the easy part. You know there's a plane coming. You know absolutely how many people are on that plane. You're gonna lock them in a room. You're gonna test them twice. You're going to get those numbers, and then you're going to let them out. Yeah, if you've got a captive audience` Absolutely, and you know, a grad from a local university can figure out an algorithm. The statistics are reasonably, reasonably constant, and people can sort these things out. There's another thorny issue for the government to contend with this week and that is ` are we going to charge Kiwis the cost of isolation when they come back? Should we be doing that, Trish? I don't think I have a problem with that at all, and again, as Shane has just talked about, yes, we have an inalienable right to come back, but also that is now a decision you are making to come back and you know what the context of that is. So you think the emergency has gone, the emergency rationale or reason for coming back, and these are just people who like the look of New Zealand now? Well, I'm not going to name him, but I saw a reasonably wealthy chap staying at one of the isolation hotels, because my work is connected to one. We've gotta be careful about that. And he could have afforded` him and his family could afford to pay. I think it could be means-tested, but also I think we've gotta get our mechanisms in place for the next tranche, and you know, we've got a huge skills shortage in New Zealand, and we've got people who have got very important jobs, already got work permits, already working in New Zealand. We gotta get them back here. And can I just say this? This is the problem we have now. We have now this allergic reaction and these big headlines with these hotels, someone in lockdown. Why have we not now got a plan that says, OK, here is our plan. If we're at 5000 people coming in, here are the hotels we're using. If we're at 10,000... We should have that transparency at Kiwis to try and take that fear factor down. And we did ask Megan Woods that today ` where are you going to be putting them? How many more hotels do you want? And I didn't actually get an answer out of her about that. I think it made perfect sense, you know. I couldn't understand why 16 or 17 of the hotels are in high-density areas. I think it makes sense to go to Rotorua. But, hey, we must have known at least days in advance that they were going to Rotorua, and the people of Rotorua deserve to know. Here's another quick, quick question for you. What happens if we get community transmission? (LAUGHS) Well, who knows? But the problem now` and this is the trust and confidence question, right? Because we all did our bit, and we stepped back and we did our bit, because we needed to allow the government and the public health system to do its bit. And it hasn't done that now. And so I think if we now got community transmission because of issues at the border, every New Zealander would feel deeply disturbed about what happens to them in that scenario. So, that, uh, you know, long rope that we've given the government to do what they've wanted to do ` are they losing that? They're losing it, and the polls show that. I would have thought` If you had asked me that question last week, I would have said, 'Nah, the Prime Minister has a lot of credit in the bank. The public trust her.' But it looks like they're losing that trust quite quickly, and they've gotta fill that gap. We haven't got community transmission, it seems to me, sadly, rather by good luck than good management. And all the international commentary also suggests, all the analysis, that a blunt instrument like what we used last time, a total lockdown, would not fly again for all of the` particularly around the health of the economy. So you would have to have a much more precise mechanism, maybe region by region, or in suburbs or whatever. Well, we're not there yet, thankfully. The panel ` thank you very much for your time. Cheers. Up next ` a look at some of the sparks that flew in the House this week. Plus, there's more riding on this animal welfare case than any in New Zealand's legal history. Welcome back. It's been called the most important animal welfare case in New Zealand's history. The Animal Law Association, represented by a Queen's Counsel, is taking the government to the High Court. If they win, New Zealand's pork industry could be in ruins. Zac Fleming reports. So, this is Hannah. Hannah was hand-reared. She was one of those ones that was a little bit of a runt. And so we just brought her in the house. She lives in the Wairarapa on one of only two commercial free-range pig farms in the entire country. She just had piglets two days ago ` made the old-fashioned way. Dad's in the next paddock over. Hannah was left to choose where to give birth, or farrow, as it's known in the pork industry. We're just not willing to compromise and have sows in crates. It's just not something that we believe is how they should be treated. In Canterbury, this pig doesn't have a name. And none of these pigs chose where to farrow. They were put in these cages five days before giving birth and will stay in them for five weeks. (PIGS SQUEAL) About 60% of New Zealand's pigs give birth in these. And they're so contentious, nobody can even agree what to call them. The government calls them crates. We believe 'pen' is a better descriptor of what the device is for the operation of farrowing pigs. So what would you say to people who call that a cage, then? I think that's a dramatisation of what that actually is. Whatever they're called, even the government agrees they don't let pigs be pigs. It's severe behavioural restriction and physical restriction for the breeding sow. She can't turn around, and she can't build a nest. So they're frustrated in their behaviour, and that causes stress. And so these cages or crates might not be legal for much longer. This is the most significant animal welfare decision and case in a generation. The High Court in Wellington is reviewing the government's approval of cages. It's the first case of its kind in New Zealand's history. What's being reviewed is the pig Code of Welfare, which is created by the National Animal Welfare Advisory Committee, or NAWAC. The argument is that there isn't enough scientific basis or justification for allowing farrowing crates, that alternatives are possible, that NAWAC should have looked at those, and the failure to do so meant that they exceeded their powers. The case was brought by the Animal Law Association and SAFE, which has been campaigning to get rid of cages for years. This was our last resort. To be able to take this case to court was probably the most effective way of getting justice for the mother pigs. The government rejects their argument. It says farrowing crates are legal. Indoor pig farmers say they need to be legal, because they're best practice. Jason Palmer built this farm in 2012. He says he loves pigs. They run in the family. My father had pigs, and my uncle also had pigs and still has pigs today, so, yeah, it's in our family blood. He sends 13,000 pigs to slaughter every year and says he needs cages to protect his piglets. Nothing else has been determined to be better than this system to look after and balance the needs between the sow and the piglet. Piglets die from being crushed by their mother. It's unavoidable on every type of farm. But when their mother is in a cage, fewer piglets die. It's also environmentally better compared to intensively farming pigs on soil. It provides an alternative measure to protect our staff as well. But piglets are normally crushed only in the first week of life. So the government asked the industry to shorten the time sows spend in cages and seek alternatives for the future. What we have found out internationally is that the use of farrowing pens is still the best alternative. So you're not doing anything to seek alternatives at the moment? We don't believe there is a better alternative. Alternatives include farrowing pens or freedom farming, where pigs are moved into big barns after they're born outside. But more piglets die in both. And every dead piglet represents hundreds of dollars lost. Plus, if cages are banned, retrofitting farms would be costly. If change was to come, it would be devastating for our industry. It would wipe out more than probably half of the indoor systems in New Zealand. About 30 farmers like Jason forced out of business ` unable to compete with cheaper imported meat. Kiwis eat about 20kg of pork a year, 60% of that from overseas. A key reason it's cheaper is because it's farmed in ways that would be illegal in New Zealand. I feel like it's a hypocritical standard. I think we're having to comply with certain standards. An imported product is coming in, and it doesn't. So it's not a level playing field. Here, the only confines are fences. There are fewer mother pigs on these 20ha than there are in one shed on an indoor farm. Here is Prince Bindi coming to say hello and have a scratch. Naya was formerly a vet and an MPI animal welfare inspector. Can we see your tusks? Yes, we can. She says she's mitigated piglet-crushing without cages. We have smaller litter sizes with larger piglets, more robust piglets. We also have very maternal mothers. Only 1% of New Zealand's pork is farmed like this ` pigs born and bred entirely outdoors. But it's expensive. And it's not easy being a free-range pig farmer. Aside from the extra labour, many people in the pork industry aren't happy with you. One free-range pig farmer who didn't want to talk on camera told me that an abattoir had threatened to stop taking his pigs if he started to speak out about farming practices. Despite the difficulties, cages were never considered. We're already asking pigs to give us their lives. We're asking a huge amount. How can we possibly ask them to compromise more of their natural behaviours, the natural positive things that happen in their lives? These animals are more intelligent than your pet dog. We wouldn't do that to our companion animals. We wouldn't do that to a dog. If the High Court agrees with that thinking, the ramifications could spread wider than just pig farming. A successful challenge here will show that there are systemic problems within New Zealand's animal welfare legislative regime. But whichever side of the fence you're on, experts say it's good our animal welfare laws are being scrutinised, because ultimately, it's these guys who come out on top. And any sort of examination in that regard is only to be a good thing. For animals? For animals or keeping the government in check, for keeping our system the best that it can possibly be and to ensure that our animal welfare standards are the highest in the world. Zac Fleming reporting there. Stay with us. We're back after the break. Welcome back. And we're back with our panel, Shane Te Pou and Trish Sherson. Let's talk polling. 9% rise for National under Todd Muller in the latest poll ` is that his popularity increasing, Shane, or the government's mistakes? Oh, a little bit of both. You know, he had a bad first two weeks. A little bit of both. But, yeah, the government is certainly much more vulnerable than it was two weeks ago, so, yeah, as I say, I think it's a bit of both. It's a honeymoon period for him? Or is he just improving his performance? I think Audrey Young summed it up perfectly today in her analysis, actually, and what she said was it is actually much tighter than that, particularly if you think about ACT, who are sitting at around 4. I had thought this year, David Seymour would be a wild card, and I still think that is the case. But I think the other point about it is that Muller had a shocker to start. He has been getting better. It's 'Muller' as well. (LAUGHS) (LAUGHS) Still haven't got it, still haven't got it! But I also think that these are the voters sloshing around between National and Labour. These are the middle voters that are going to be critical. And I think that Labour has lost them. They lost these nine points. But it also means they have more attention to actually listen to Muller ` Muller ` and think about what he's saying. Yeah, I think what happens is that people generally say, 'Yes, we're gonna vote Labour,' or, 'We're gonna vote National,' but as they get closer to the elections, the leaders of the smaller parties get more profile, then they think about the strategic outcomes. Yeah, but is there actual National policy that's attracting attention? Or is it just... Well, no. There isn't any, is there? You know, they're gonna... More jobs, stronger economy, better team. A terrible photo shot. You haven't got the slogan right! That's not the right one! Whatever it is. Strong team, more jobs, better economy. Yeah, exactly. I got two out of three right. (LAUGHS) But there isn't any policy, because when you talk to Muller... Muller. Muller ` when he's questioned, when he's questioned about what the policy is, there's a void there. Hopefully` Or possibly that they're gonna bring this in closer. The other thing is that I just have this little prediction for the viewers ` he's gonna struggle in those debates, up against Winston, up against Ardern. And Ardern is a great campaigner, as we well know. Yep. Trish, what do you think of the slogan? It certainly doesn't do anything for me. One of my secret pastimes is to drive round analysing billboards. (LAUGHS) A billboard is an art, right, because you're at pace and at a distance. I just didn't think the wording was really strong enough. It didn't connect with me. And the word 'better' ` 'better economy'. 'Better' at the moment is coming off a really low base, so it's not particularly` It's not a hard ask. It's not a hard ask. I didn't feel it was a slogan; I thought it was more just a collection of thoughts with a full stop at the end. OK. For me, it's pale in every way, shape and form. Every way. OK. ACT, you were saying, could be a wild card. 3% of the Colmar Brunton poll; you think 4%. Why is he doing so well, David Seymour? Well, Seymour is one of the few in the House at the moment who can get real cut-through in media. He's great at those quick sound bites. Look at what he did this week over the whole border debacle ` 'They couldn't even run a bath.' That's a great line. And also, coming up to the election, he has got his referendum coming up, so he's going to have a much bigger platform than just trying to get a bit here and there. So he's gonna get some oxygen. Let's talk about New Zealand First ` 2% and Winston Peters putting the handbrake on pretty heavily. Is it acting against their party polling? Oh, I don't think so. And, you know, New Zealand First is always well under-represented in terms of polling. Even this low? Of course, that would be a concern. I just wanna say that I've spoken to one person that was actually polled. The questions were pretty obscure in terms of who you would support. And whether or not, in fact, New Zealand First was an option in some of those polls is another question and whether they were an option in terms of the coalition. But having said that, don't underestimate Winston. He's been buried many times before. He's a great campaigner. He's out there. The other thing is that... I move around the country a bit. There's a much better impression of New Zealand First in the regions than there are in the big cities. Would you agree with that, Trish? I think they've done a lot of work in the regions. I think it makes the Northland seat more critical, because without that, there is no safety net if you don't get over the 5%. But I do think that we've put a lot of focus on New Zealand First, and I think this is where the interesting thing will come ` is actually more around ACT and how they are actually gonna come up through this. OK. One more big thing to come this week ` Ihumatao, maybe an announcement on that. Shane... Yeah, I think the Prime Minister's gonna announce it. I think she's gonna go without New Zealand First. She'll say that the money's available out of the housing fund. It will fracture this coalition. OK. That's a big statement. Well, it might be where we actually see the sparks flying off the tyres from the handbrake coming on, not just smelling the smoke as we are now. We're under three months from the election. The election campaign is well and truly on. OK. Let's see what happens this week. Thank you very much for your time. Our panel ` Shane Te Pou and Trish Sherson. Now, it was a raucous week in the House, with one National MP being booted from the chamber twice in 24 hours, and another storming out in protest. Here's Finn Hogan with the week that was in Wellington. FINN HOGAN: Well, election season is here, and tempers were flaring in the House, with National keen to press its advantage following the border bungles. Mr Speaker, this is a government that has failed at every level to deliver for our country ` whether it is light rail, whether it is Kiwibuild, or keeping New Zealanders safe. But Chris Hipkins wasn't exactly keen to let Nikki Kaye get comfortable in her new chair on the front bench. Mr Speaker, there have been a lot of firsts lately, but I never thought I would find myself sitting here thinking, 'Actually, Paula Bennett was quite good.' (LAUGHTER) But I did, during that contribution, Mr Speaker... And the Speaker was taking no prisoners,... I stand, withdraw and apologise. Point of order, Mr Speaker. No, no, the member will withdraw and apologise properly. I withdraw and apologise. ...booting Nick Smith from the chamber after this exchange. The member will resume his seat. That is a matter for me to deal with, not the member. The member will leave the chamber. Luckily for Smith, his mate Gerry Brownlee was on hand to back him up. If there is a further reflection on me,... the member will be joining Dr Smith. I'll choose to join him without any further comment, Mr Speaker. Not much point in staying in this chamber. But Mr Smith, at least, did not stay gone. Mr Speaker, I just do raise a point of order to bring to your attention. There is a member in the House who was required to not be in the House earlier by the Speaker. The Deputy Speaker was forced to have Smith escorted from the House by the Serjeant-at-Arms, drawing some pretty intense comparisons from Mr Smith. The member will leave the chamber immediately. Well, it seems like a Speaker's work is never done and that both sides of the House might need to heed the words of Mr Mallard. I'm trying to think of the appropriate set of words ` um, just behave themselves. No one would accept those odds. That's all from us for now. Thank you for watching, and we will see you again next weekend. Captions by Joshua Tait, Alex Walker and Tash Keddy. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2020 This programme was made with the assistance of the NZ On Air Platinum Fund.