- E haere ake nei, today on Newshub Nation ` banished from the bubble, we cross to Emma Cropper in Sydney. Embattled Police Minister Poto Williams defends her record, and Digital Editor Finn Hogan on who's up, who's down, and who's spending in politics online. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2021 Tena tatou katoa, I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation. Ko nga pitopito korero i te Whare Paremata, in political news this week ` New Zealand join our allies in a stinging rebuke of China, accusing our largest trading partner of malicious cyber activity. The Chinese embassy called it a smear and urged New Zealand to abandon the Cold War mentality. The travel bubble with Australia has been paused for at least eight weeks following the outbreak in New South Wales. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also apologised for the country's slow vaccine rollout. New Zealand is right down with Australia on most vaccination measures. And Samoa's Court of Appeal ruled on Friday that Fiame Naomi Mata'afa is legally Samoa's first female Prime Minister. The decision ended a three month political stalemate and brought the 22 year leadership of former prime minister to Labour Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi to a close. Well, the Prime Minister has stopped the travel bubble with Australia for the next two months. Ashley Bloomfield says the New South Wales COVID outbreak is clearly not under control, and the state itself is calling the Delta outbreak a national emergency. Joining me now from Sydney is our Australia correspondent Emma Cropper. Good morning, Emma. Did everybody just see this coming? They were expecting it? - Good morning, Simon. Well, it certainly didn't come as a surprise. I think once we heard the entire bubble with all of Australia was closing, it did make sense. In the past few weeks, we've seen it shutting and opening with all these different states as the threat of COVID-19 emerged in all these different places. And at the heart of all those closures are Kiwis who have been stuck here in Australia and they've had to fork out thousands and thousands of dollars. Their plans have been changed. Some people haven't been able to get home for weeks. Some of them are now going through the MIQ system. So it was becoming very difficult for anyone to cross the Tasman. No trip was safe. So I think to put that blanket ban in place on travel, it'll make it a lot easier. The message will be clear. It is too unsafe to leave New Zealand at the moment. - Sure, but those Kiwis now have certainty ` They're trapped. So how are they receiving that news? - Yeah, I think, uh, stressed is probably the word I'm hearing the most from all the Kiwis here, they've now got seven days basically to flee Australia. They need to be out of here by midnight Friday. The airlines are putting on extra flights to help them get home. But it is difficult, is going to be very stressful. They need to get pre-departure tests. It's going to be expensive. I think they receive they get quite nervous about the messaging that comes from people in New Zealand. That was flyer beware. But bear in mind, a lot of people at this stage of the Trans Tasman bubble are crossing the ditch because not so much to go on holiday, but because they need to attend funerals, they need to reunite with family for personal reasons. They're trying to set up a life here and reconnect with family and start jobs. So they're already in these quite stressful situations over here, which are now, I guess, made worse by the fact that they now need to get back to New Zealand and they can't cross the ditch freely like they could. - I just wonder, what role has the low vaccine rates have played in Australia, and played in the New South Wales outbreak? - It has been interesting to watch, because this highly contagious Delta strain, Simon, has really changed the game here, and you've seen in the U.K. all those stadiums full of people going to Wimbledon and to the football matches while those case numbers are so high there. But they have quite a high vaccination rate, where here in New South Wales, just around 12% of the population is vaccinated. So what we're seeing is sort of an experiment of what happens when this highly contagious variant collides with a low vaccination rate, and the outbreak, it is unstoppable, it is outpacing hat contact tracing efforts, which usually you would rely so quickly on, but it is so highly contagious, people are catching it, just walking past each other in malls. At the MCG in Victoria, people weren't even sitting by each other. They didn't know each other. And the airborne transmission of this virus has been passed from one person to another. If that was to happen in New Zealand, you'd be looking at a very strict lockdown because of just how contagious this is. And going hard and going early really is what you need to do when it gets to this virus. So that would be why New Zealand has put up its borders. You do not want the Delta variant in your community, because once it's there, like we're seeing in Australia, it is so hard to get out. - Emma Cropper, some lessons there for us, thank you very much for your time. Australia correspondent Emma Cropper there. Well, has our government gone too far or not far enough in shutting the border for eight weeks? And do we just keep doing this every time there's an outbreak? Professor Des Gorman from Auckland University School of Medicine joins me now. Kia ora, thank you for your time this morning. - Kia ora, Simon, how are you? - I'm really well. How are you? Good? - Good. - Good, yeah, well, so, let's ask the question, is an 8 week shutdown with Australia warranted? - Look, it's understandable because we're not vaccinated. And so as a result, we are particularly vulnerable. We've struggled throughout to get contact tracing to the level that we needed to be. We tend to have surges of interest in being tested and then they die away. So confronted with our lack of vaccination, then an eight week lockdown is probably the only response that was available to the government. - But there is some concern or maybe some surprise here that for the next week, Kiwis that are in Australia can come home from six states and territories, not New South Wales, but other states and territories without even sort of isolating. Is that a risk? - Yeah, and it's inconsistent. And one of the problems we've had throughout the management of pandemic has been behaviour in terms of responses which have been up and down in terms of acceptable risk. And I can understand the next week allowing people who have been vaccinated to come home if they've had a negative pre departure test. But this next week, come home now is really taking a punt. - It's taking a punt. But is they saying that and not allowing` and saying you don't have to self-isolate just purely because we just don't have the MIQ facilities. - In part. But also I think it's trying to manage the optics. One of the problems with a politicisation of any health response is that it's not` It's hard enough managing the health risk and economic risk, but when you have electoral risk as well, it's very, very difficult. And we've seen politicians all around the world struggle to get that balance right. So it's a matter of what's the right thing to do versus what's the thing the public would like to see me doing, OR which they they're most comfortable with me doing. Well, that seems to be playing out in Australia at the moment because we've had Scott Morrison apologising this week for Australia's slow vaccine rollout. New Zealand's measurements are basically the same, aren't they? - Or even slightly worse. - Even slightly worse. So should Jacinda Ardern be doing the same thing? - I'm not interested in hearing the Prime Minister apologise for it. What I want to hear is a plan about how we go from isolation to integration. I'm not really interested in saying I'm so sorry for how slowly it's going, we all know that. But tell us how it's going to be accelerated. Tell us how we go from this hermit colony to being part of the world again. Let's hear what the integration sounds like. Okay, well, we've got an experiment happening right now in two places right now around the world. First of all, Britain is has gone from the hermit colony now to just Freedom Day. - How do you think that's going? I mean, they've got high levels of vaccination. - Yeah, well, two thirds. - Two thirds. - And two thirds of` Most of that's AstraZeneca, AstraZeneca. So, look, I think what's happened there as you get because you have a growing expectation amongst the public being allowed out one day you get to a certain level of vaccination, and suddenly the desire to be let loose just becomes overwhelming. And you go from nothing to everything. I think it's early. I think it's precipitous. I think it's probably dangerous. But I understand why it became a political necessity. And the question, the issue for us is how do we step change ourselves so we don't end up at that same point where later this year, when two thirds of us are vaccinated, the government does not come under huge pressure to open the gates in the same way you mentioned about allowing people in for the next seven days. That's a pragmatic political response, not a health related response. - Are you concerned that, you know, at the end of this year, we'll all want to head off into the world and let the world in? - Absolutely. I think there's gonna come a point where that desire to go back to life as normal becomes so overwhelming that it'll be almost unmanageable. And we're seeing that in Sydney now, Simon, if you look at, you know, the premier gets up and says 100 new cases a week, 40 to 50 were wandering around the community. - Yeah. - So clearly when she said, go home, stay home, a lot of Australians said 'No, thank you.' - Yeah. OK. So you say, how do we nuance this, how do you manage it? - Well, I think there are a number of things we need to do. The first thing is we need to understand what liberty vaccination brings, and what we allow vaccinated people to do because of the fact they're vaccinated. - So you're saying people who are vaccinated have more freedom? - Absolutely. Because if you think people are vaccinated, are less likely to get the disease. If they get it, they're less likely to be sick, they're less likely to transmit it, and they're less likely to mutate it. But I think we also have got to the point is, this is true for most countries around the world, where we need to start shifting the way we govern and manage the pandemic. If you think about the way in which we govern ACC, the super fund, it's at arm's length from politics. It's an expert governance group. The government makes it clear to that group what its expectations are, but then gets out of the way of people who actually are expert at governance` - You want to take the politics out of public health management. - Basically. - Okay. But in insisting on that, people who are vaccinated have more freedoms, are you creating two classes of citizen here? - Yeah, we are. There are two classes of citizens. - And there's no apologies for that? - No, you're vaccinated and you're unvaccinated. I mean, it's just a simple biological reality. One's risk is he re, one's risk is here. That's just simple` That's simple biology. - And the politicians are gonna have to wear the political pushback on that, aren't they? - Well they are, cos they're gonna have to at some stage. At some stage, they're going to have to deal with an expectant community saying give us back our freedoms. We've done our bit. Two thirds of us aren't vaccinated. We're heading off into the wild blue yonder. - So until you get an acceptance that, you know, you have freedom if you're vaccinated and not if you aren't, we've got not only Britain doing an experiment at the moment, but you've got the Olympics going on at the moment. And that's all of the world coming together with different COVID policies. Is that going to work? - Well, you'd have to guess that there's going to be outbreaks. There's going to be a little mini crises. There'll be some events which, particularly team sports, which will default. I think it's going to be` It's fascinating natural experiment, but I think it's got risks written all over it. - OK, Professor Des Gorman, thank you very much for your time this morning. - You're welcome. - Well, if you've got news, or a news tip, get in touch, we're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, or you can email us at nation@tv3.co.nz Joining us online in our Twitter panel this morning is comedian Ed Amon and political commentator Bevan Chuang. E whai ake nei ` we dissect the week's political news with our panel, but first, Police Minister Poto Williams joins us live. - Hoki mai ano. Gangs, guns, government funds and pay freezes ` it's been a week of turf war in the police portfolio. - ARCHIVE: A South Auckland community is shaken after a shooting took place on a usually peaceful street overnight. - ARCHIVE: And one person died on the front lawn. - Government come on board, please. We need to talk. - ARCHIVE: A police officer is recovering in hospital after being shot during a routine vehicle stop in Hamilton. - ARCHIVE: A single shot hit the officer in the arm and shoulder. - Obviously, the situation could have been significantly more serious. - The reality is a risky environment we police in. - 1500 officers assaulted last year, 350 injured ` that's nearly one a day injured. - ARCHIVE: A wanted man was shot and seriously injured. - ARCHIVE: Shocking events of this morning are still unravelling for those involved. - MAN: To find yourself sitting in your car, next thing you know, you've got a firearm being held to your head. - ARCHIVE: Two firearm incidents in a month. - ARCHIVE: Armed police cordoning off Don Buck Road in West Auckland. - ARCHIVE: Two shots were allegedly fired in the area late last night. - I feel like it's normal. - The renewed police presence today not making locals feel any safer. - So increasing violence, a pay freeze and they seem to be almost at the back of the queue for vaccinations ` one frontline officer even told Newshub Nation he thinks the Police Minister is anti-police. Surely not. Minister for Police Poto Williams joins us live in the studio. Tena koe. Thanks for your time this morning. - Good morning, Simon. - I mean, that's a flippant remark, but surely you're not anti police. - Definitely not. It's an absolute privilege to be the Minister of Police. - OK, yeah. But the situation is tense at the moment, isn't it? Like, pay negotiations, as of Friday, have just broken down. Police are talking openly about protest action. What hope can you offer them for some kind of resolution? - Well, I'm not involved directly in the pay negotiations, and it's probably best that I don't do that. But I do want to say that I absolutely value the work that the police do. It's my job to make sure that they get the resources that they need to do the work that they need to do. And let's be really clear about this ` they go out there, put themselves on the front line to keep us safe, so it's my job to make sure that they get home to their families. - That is your job. OK, great. But the union's saying that the gap between the size is tens of millions and is implying that the government is unbending. - Look, I can't comment on that. The negotiations are live and active at the moment. - Sure, OK. But this could be quite big because they're talking about protest. I mean, when was the last time the police actually protested? I mean, are you aware of that? Never. - Well, I'm not aware of it. But as I say, those negotiations continue. It's not in the best interests of those negotiations that I say step in and make any comment about that. - OK, well, let's move on, then. Let's deal with what the Police Association says about the $2.75 million grant to Kahukura, the meth addiction programme which is partly run by Mongrel Mob life member Harry Tam. Did you lobby for or against that? Did it come across your desk and did you lobby for or against it? - I want to be clear about that too, Simon. That programme is one that works in terms of dealing with meth addiction. - How do you know it works? - I'm not` Because the evaluation that was done shows that it does, and there was 100% compliance with drug use post that. - OK, let's just pick up on that ` 100% compliance post the programme. - Sure. - So, it's a 10-week programme. There were 10 people going through it. - Yes. So, the Ministry of Health did testing on those folk that went through it, and they were clean. - When? When did they do it? I mean, are we talking, like, a week after the programme or are we talking months after the programme? How do we know that they were` - An evaluation is an evaluation. And if that the evaluators are telling us that, post that programme, that they had people who are clear of meth, then that signals that the programme was successful, doesn't it? - Well, it depends when the evaluation was done. I know we're nitpicking at the moment, but if it was done a week after, I mean, so what? I mean, if it's done several months after that points to success. - The programme itself is funded because it worked, and that's the point that I want to get across. - Right, OK. So you say that the programme is successful, so you are for it? - Well, if it works. Meth is a huge problem in our community, and it's a huge problem for police because meth is peddled by gangs. And meth harms our community, so` - And we agree on all of those things, but, I mean, you're not aware of the detail to prove that it works, except that you've been told by evaluators that it's been` - The Ministry of Health is the lead agency. I think the Ministry of Health knows about testing for meth. - OK, all right. Let's talk about this footage that National released this week. It is edited, and this is a political game, but it shows Harry Tam at a Mongrel Mob hui last year. Let's just have a look. - And I guess most of youse will realise that Harry Tam is a serious (BLEEP)ing mongrel. For me, it's been 47 years that I've been in the Mob. We know that come September this year, there's going to be this thing called the general election and we all know the leader of the National Party is ganging up on us. We're the mighty (BLEEP)ing Mongrel Mob. We don't take any (BLEEP) from any (BLEEP). Why should we take it from them? That's the way I see it, right? Sieg heil to the Mongrel Mob. - All right, so, 'Sieg heil to the Mongrel Mob.' The Police Association says the optics of that are terrible. Do you agree? You've got Harry Tam, who is embedded with the Mongrel Mob, a lifelong member, and he's been given` he's partly responsible for this taxpayers' money. Are the optics good enough? - Right. Firstly, we are not funding the gangs. - No, I'm not saying that. - Secondly, the Harry Tam interviews that have played over the last week or so don't do a couple of things, and I think the media has bought into that. Harry Tam hasn't talked about the harm that's caused to women and children who try to escape the gangs. Harry Tam hasn't talked about the harm that meth causes to communities. I mean, I don't buy, necessarily, all the stuff that Harry Tam and the like tell you. In my experience, in terms of my work in family violence, the gang life as hard. The gangs` Gangs proactively recruit young people into them, and I don't, for a second, buy that. - OK, given all that, the optics of giving Harry Tam money, if you don't buy in all that, the optics of giving Harry Tam money are terrible. - I've been saying this all week that we are funding a programme that has been shown to work. We are not funding the gangs. I don't know how much clearer I can be. - And I'm not saying that you're funding the gangs, but Harry Tam is obviously affiliated with it, and so the Police Association, this is where organised crime officers are saying, 'Hang on a sec, I took $2 million off the Mongrel Mob in the Notorious chapter,' and then 2.75 million gets sort of circled back, somehow, to some of the Mongrel Mob in this meth addiction programme. - The lead agency on this is the Ministry of Health. - So it's their problem, is it? - The Ministry of Health is the lead agency on this, dealing with` doing a programme that has actually been proven to work. We're not funding the gangs ` we're funding the programme. - All right, let's move on to the routine arming of police. I mean, you've said you won't ever support that, and that's on the principle that police operate by consent in the community. - Absolutely. - Is that` OK. The surveys sort of seem to show that the community is in favour of it. I mean, and again, it's the Police Association who have done the survey, so we take that into account, but it shows 61% of the public in favour of arming police, so the community may give their consent. - I don't support general arming of the police. The Prime Minister doesn't. Stuart Nash didn't. The Commissioner doesn't, neither did the previous Commissioner. What it does is it fundamentally changes the relationship we have with the police. We have a trust relationship with police ` they're approachable, and we don't fear them. And I believe that we will have irreversibly changed that relationship. Now, I'm talking with frontline police all the time. This recess` - And what are they saying to you? Because they are the Police Association's surveys. - And I'm also ringing officers who were harmed, you know, who are out there, and I call them and I talk to them about the issues. And they say a couple of things to me. They say, 'If I was armed, would the outcome be different? 'It may or may not have been.' But what they're saying very clearly to me is that they want to be confident when they go into a situation. Now, being confident when they go into a situation means that they need to be trained properly. They need to have the resources to do the work. And I'm really clear that I want to support that as much as I can. Now, I was recently at the memorial for Constable Matt Hunt, and I want to mihi to Diane and Ellie and to all of the wider police whanau who have been impacted by that, and I give my absolute commitment that I will support whatever needs to happen to make them as safe as possible. - I've got a question for you, then. I mean, should you be giving your opinion, given that it's really an operational matter? I mean, the decision to generally arm police really rests with the Commissioner, doesn't it? - It absolutely does. - OK, so are you trying to influence the Commissioner? - The Commissioner doesn't support general arming of police, and let's face it, as a police service that is unarmed, we have access to firearms when we need it. We've got access to specialist training, we've got access to the AOS as well. - And the lockbox is in their car. - But there's more that can be done, and that's what I'm talking to the Commissioner about now ` what more we can do to support our frontline to be confident when they go` - But it won't go as far as general arming? - One of the things that the Commissioner put in place after Matthew Hunt's tragic loss was the Frontline Improvement Safety Programme. Now, feedback that's coming to me from people who are going through that programme are saying` they're saying what it has done is given them far more confidence. It's a scenario-based training. And that's what I'm hearing when I'm speaking with officers who have been hurt. What they're saying is that they would like the confidence to deal with situations. - OK, let's move on to a couple more issues to cover quickly ` gang numbers; our national gang list has hit 8000, April. Do you know what it is now? - I think we released the numbers recently in an OIA. I think it's gone up a bit. But, you know, for me` - Tell me, first of all, tell me what those numbers are. - I think it's gone up about 60. - Up about 60, so we're probably 8060? - It's an intel tool. It's not` It's not a... It's not something that's useful in terms of really establishing the gang picture. But what I do want to say is that any number is too high. And the work that the police are doing is` - And it's going higher on your watch and Labour's watch. - It's also ` and this is something the Commissioner will tell you too ` it's also very hard to get off the list. If you may not be active, you may have` - It's the best we've got at the moment. - It's the only intel tool we have, and it's used by the police for that. - And it's going up. - But` But I want to say it's not useful to quote a number when there is so much activity that's happening. The police are doing a great job at disrupting that. I mean, Operation Tauwhiro, for example, is taking guns out of circulation. It's taking drugs out of circulation. - So when are we going to see Operation Tauwhiro and other such operations bring it down? - When I say that it's very difficult to have a list that's` where you have` you can get on the list very easily, but it's very difficult to get out. - All right, let's move on to another area of concern for police, that's vaccinations. So, at the beginning of the vaccination process, police weren't prioritised. Like, ambulance officers and firefighters and health workers, they were first responders in Group 2, but police were not, unless it was particularly on the border. Do you know why not? - What I can tell you about the vaccinations is that, our conversations with Health, is that vaccines will be going to Medpro to roll-out for general police. The ones at MIQ and the ones that are at the frontline had been vaccinated. - Yeah, and that's the border workers. But the general police force who were first` They worked all the way through COVID, OK? They're first responders, and they didn't get vaccinated early like the other first responders. - They're going to be vaccinated now. - They're getting it now. But is that acceptable? I mean, I didn't realise that. - Well, we made sure that those who are working on our border, those most at risk of getting COVID, were vaccinated. - I guess, if you take that into account and the pay freeze, the violence that's going on, is this impacting your ability to deliver on your promise of 1800 extra police? - No, it is not. And in fact, we are on target to deliver that. - Are you? - Can I say, Simon, that we get criticised for this; we have the biggest police service ever ` 14,000 people work in police, and we are on target to meet our 1800 growth by 2023. Now, the criticism has come to us about being delayed and that when I want to say to you, Simon, it's the biggest police service ever. - Sure, and I understand that, but it looks like the numbers have stagnated around 1200 extra officers. I mean, I just wonder whether` - There's no stagnation. - There's no stagnation? OK. - We've got two wings going through training at the moment. - All right. I just` Generally, the frontline officers that we've been talking to ` there's a couple of quotes here. One of them is, it was in the intro, 'We feel she's anti police, 'anti response teams, armed response teams,' and you need to get on the TV and social media to show you back the police. Others who say, 'I hate to say it, but we need the right to strike. 'It's clear the government and Commissioner aren't reading the room.' OK, how do you respond to those kinds of messages that we get from frontline workers? - I'm with police a lot, in fact. I've been, during this recess, I go out on regional visits, and I talk to frontline police. I talk to them one on one, I talk to them in groups, and they are telling me a whole lot of things that, you know, I really value. They're talking about their concerns for their safety and wanting to feel confident. And there are things that we can do about that. - So, you've got a national platform right now. Maybe you could give a message to the police right now... - Yeah. - ...and tell them, what would your message be? - My message would be that, recently, when I was at the memorial for Matt Hunt, the kaumatua challenged me, and he said, 'You are now their whaea. You must look after them.' And that's my absolute commitment, that I will look after the police, because that is my job to do so. Kia ora, Poto Williams, Minister for Police. Thank you very much for your time this morning. - Thank you. Thanks, Simon. - All right, up next ` analysis from our political panel, Anna Fifield, Brigitte Morten and Dr Lara Greaves. And Digital Editor Finn Hogan on the power of a political struggle for our hearts and minds online. - Hoki mai ano. With the political debate, of course, increasingly digital, I checked in this week with Digital Editor Finn Hogan to see who's up, who's down, who's splashing the cash across social media, starting with the question ` who is on top online? - Well, both major opposition parties are doing quite a push into social media in the last couple of weeks ` ACT with their slew of policy proposals and a regional tour, National with their 'Demand the Debate' campaign, and between the two, it's actually National who are pulling ahead in pretty much every metric we can measure on Facebook, whether it be follower growth or video views. - But last time we talked, Act was well ahead. So what's changed? - Well, I think it kind of comes down to a simple communications truism, which is keep it simple where you can, particularly on social media, because ACT is pushing people towards quite dense issues of policy. But that's inherently quite a hard sell on social media. When you compare that to National, they've got a very inherently emotive, catchy slogan, 'demand the debate.' And I think that's what's driving the success. - But how much of that growth is organic and how much are they actually paying for? - Yeah, well, this is quite interesting. If we actually break down the numbers here, ACT are spending an amount of money that you'd expect to see in an election year. They're spending tens of thousands of dollars pushing this campaign on Facebook. Now, if we contrast that to National, they're spending a comparatively piddly couple of grand, but they're getting more cut-through. They're getting more bang for that lesser money. And what does that tell us? Well, that tells us that their more pointed style, at least in this campaign, is showing dividends. - I reckon you mean National's Ute ad, which was a bit crass, wasn't it? - Well, yes. You picked up on my subtle messaging there, Simon. Yes. The Ute tax is showing the Ute tax euphemistically biting Kiwis in the bum. Look, it was very crass, as you say, but for those people that that ad is targeted at, it's going to work perfectly. They'll find it funny, they'll find it irreverent. And the people who hate it will probably comment on it, they'll probably share it. And that will just increase Nationals reach for free. As I always say, Simon, a hate-click is still a click. Facebook should just have that as their slogan. - (LAUGHS) You mention targeting. Is there any way to see who's actually watching these? Yeah, that's interesting. So I can't see` It's not publicly available who exactly National are targeting, but I can basically infer it from looking at where the ad is playing, and these ads are playing primarily in the regions. Auckland barely even registers. And that kind of goes to show the Nationals responding to a criticism that's been levied of them in recent weeks that they're kind of leaning away from their grassroots rural base with some of their rhetoric So this kind of shows that they're trying to correct for that. - Right. But compared to Labour, is it effective? - Well, I mean, that is the big question, isn't it? And I would say, again, there's only so much we can infer from Facebook numbers, but for the first time in my memory, Labour's actually been losing followers from their main page since about the start of May. And that's quite unusual for a page that's historically been so popular on social media and a page that's got that many followers. So I think what you could say from this is that National is gaining traction, at least online, and support for Labour is waning. Alright, so let's talk about individual MPs who are our current top performers. Last time we spoke, it was Erica Stanford. Now it's Simeon Brown is streets ahead of everyone else except Jacinda Ardern, and doing very well. All right. And what Simeon Brown's secret? - Yes, OK, well, it's gangs and guns. Simon, as we have already discussed on the programme today, just like Erica did with immigration Simeon's chosen one specific, one divisive, one very emotive issue, and he's pumping out a huge amount of content about it. He's posting about four times as much on average as the Prime Minister, who is already very online. And as we know, this is the exact kind of approach that the algorithm rewards. And crucially, it rewards you without you having to spend a cent. - And before we go, any honourable mentions? - I'm so glad you asked, Simon, can I just give a quick shout out to Chris Bishop, who is always in the top five in terms of Facebook engagement. He's very good at social media. But this post he made about KFC just went hilariously viral, like it got so much more engagement than other major world events that you would expect to completely wipe the floor with it, like the Capital riots, like the Prime Minister getting vaccinated, KFC clambered over all them. And KFC is not paying me to say this. I just think it's almost comforting that in a time where we can't agree on anything politically, at least as a country, we came together about chicken. It was just one little ray of light and the dark forest of Facebook. - A KFC-free Digital Editor Finn Hogan, thank you very much. - Thank you, Simon. - All right. Time now for our political panel, joining me, Dr Lara Greaves from Auckland University politics, political commentator and lawyer Brigitte Morten, and Anna Fifield who is editor of the Dominion Post via the Washington post. Thank you for your time this morning. Let's talk shutting the bubble. Lara, 8 weeks with Australia, is that the right response? - I think the certainty there is really good, like shutting for eight weeks, so people know to plan and know how to figure out what they're doing in the next couple of months. I think that ultimately what all of the modelling is showing is that the Delta variant, if it gets in here, we're screwed. Right? That's pretty universal. And so I can see weighing the pros and cons, and I definitely agree with Professor Gorman that it is a political decision. We know that actually pandemics are all about the social science behaviour and all those sorts of things and people's attitudes. But if the Delta variant gets in, we are screwed. And so that is definitely the right decision. He's also talking about taking the politics out of public health, Brigitte, but I don't see how you can do that, really, can you? - No, I don't think you can. I think Lara's absolutely right, that there's a social licence that has to come into this. And so people have to be on board with what you're announcing. Otherwise, they're just not going to follow it. And you've seen across the world of people just, you know, disengaging with what the politicians are telling them and just doing what they think is necessary. I think the eight weeks is also, you know, conveniently quite linked to this next round of Pfizer vaccines that are coming to the country. The government knows that there's a big weakness at the moment, that we're really vulnerable. They're going to hope to get really as many people through as possible in eight weeks, that if we do reopen the borders, that we're much less vulnerable. - So if they're that strategic about it, Anna, there's no way that Jacinda Ardern's going to be apologising for the vaccine rollout like Scott Morrison did then? - I can't remember the last time Jacinda Ardern apologised for anything. I think she's not known for admitting weakness. - She talked it up instead, didn't she? - Yeah, exactly. I think the fact that Scott Morrison did apologise is a signal of how badly they have screwed things up in Australia, and not reacted quickly enough for this. So there's a lot of shambolic things happening in New Zealand as well in terms of MIQ spots and vaccine rollout, so I think there should be some recognition of that. - So, now, further down the track when we do get vaccinated. What is what are your thoughts about the idea that if you are vaccinated, you have more freedom and if you aren't vaccinated, you can't travel? What do you think, Lara? - I have a few issues with that. I think that one of the real successful things about our COVID response has been more sort of that carrot and the stick thing. We've more had carrots. We've more had that social cohesion, the team of five million. I think that when you create division, that creates an issue where you do need that higher policing and people are less likely to just listen out of the goodness of their hearts. And so I would really worry about that division there. - OK, Bridget, can you see that ever happening? - I do see it for an extent that there is a certain group of people that feel at the moment that they don't need to get the vaccine, and therefore it's not risky enough. But if there is a carrot, as is there is an incentive, that if I can't travel, that is a restriction, I think we're going to see more people vaccinated. - All right. Can we move on to Police Minister Porter Williams? She was on the programme this morning. She has got a really tricky road at the moment, hasn't she, Anna? Between we don't like the gangs who don't like the meth addiction. We don't like the domestic abuse and all those kinds of things. But the optics of Harry Tam are working against them. - Yeah. And that video you just played is really astonishing, isn't it? That shows that. So I'm kind of surprised that the government didn't get out ahead of this at the start and announce this or explain it on their own terms. They've been really on the back foot throughout this. But the messaging that is coming through now is that these kind of programmes do seem to work. This is a big issue in the community and that we have to` Like it's called, 'Hard to reach,' to be able to reach those hard to reach communities. - It's also a really hard sell. - It is a hard sell. And I think they have not done a great job on that. - What do you think, Brigitte? - Well, I think the issue you're always going to have is that you have got a group of people that have literally profited from meth addiction. They are the ones that are peddling it and now we're paying them to solve it. You've got to say, common-sense-wise, that there's something wrong with that circle of money? I think, you know, if they were running a programme in their own communities off the money that they have made of the meth addiction to solve this, supporting it, taxpayer's money, absolutely not. - But is it that simple, really, Lara? I mean, don't we just have to say, 'OK, we have to find anything to deal with a meth addiction, meth crisis?' Is that is that a reasonable response? - It's a huge issue. And I think the problem was with, and I can see the point of having a cannabis referendum, but that shifted that drug policy, talk to cannabis in our national psyche. And we need to be thinking more about P. We need to figure out how to solve this problem. And actually, like, OK, so I see sort of Simeon Brown now kind of owning the issue of gangs and owning, on the right, kind of that classic populist crime and punishment rhetoric. - And the Minister just revealed that there's another, what, 80 in the latest two` - Yeah, he's owning that issue and he's being actually quite, I'd say, effective opposition in that space. And that's in keeping with his brand. But ultimately, who has a plan to solve P? Because that's the thing that's hurting more communities, hurting more regional communities, more Maori communities, who has a plan? - Should, from the government's point of view, should they be tying themselves up with proven mobsters, when their maybe other programmes. - But communities need to be able to solve their own problems, right? So it's like for us, like, you know, to rock into one of those communities and be like, OK, I'm going to interact with Mongrel Mob members and solve their problems, like that's not` Me and us and policy people doing that is not the right approach. - So it's all about trust. - Yep. - OK, I'm gonna move on to trust in the police force in their Police Minister. Brigitte, do you think she has the trust of police? - It it's difficult to see that at the moment. And I think, you know, there's just the multiple layers of, you know, the pay negotiations, the increase in violence, the training. I think the numbers coming on you while she says it's on track, it is delayed and it is not what they promised it would be. So you can see why police are feeling really vulnerable in the community. And they're not saying that strong rhetoric coming from the minister that they're fully backed. - Would you agree with that, Anna? Do you agree that, you know, there seems to be a sort of a` You got the pay freeze, you got pay negotiations broken down, you've got the issue of arming, you've got the surveys, all those kinds of things. Is there a disconnect between the Minister and who she represents? - Well, I mean, according to some of those people, yes. But I mean, looking at this, as someone who's relatively recently returned to New Zealand, I think it's really healthy that we're able to talk about this and to have the debate about this and to take the minister on in this way and to raise these issues, that this is hopefully how these kinds of things get solved. - OK. All right. So you mentioned that you recently returned. Let's talk overseas issues. Big this week, China accused of being a cyber hacking by all the big allies around the world. Anna, you were The Washington Post Beijing bureau chief for how long? - A couple of years. - A couple of years. What are your thoughts on this? It seems extraordinary. - Yeah, this week has really shown the fact that it's not` The Chinese threat is not just to Uighur Muslims living in Northwestern China and things that they are, and that we are not immune to this here in New Zealand, that they have been actively trying to hack into our computer systems and to do damage here in New Zealand. So we should absolutely be standing up to China and standing up for our values you know, defending ourselves in this situation. - Is that easy to say, though, when they're our largest trading partner? - Yeah, no, of course, there is that factor there. But the fact that we joined together not just with the five eyes, which is an extremely kind of politicised alliance now, but with the EU and with Japan and part of being part of this broader coalition, I think, is exactly the right way we should be doing this, to show that this is a concerted international response. - Brigitte, do you think we should be concerned about trade repercussions for Australia` Ugh, for Australia. For New Zealand ` and Australia and all the rest, but just for New Zealand? - Yeah, no, no. I think absolutely you can see what's happened in Australia, that there is absolutely trade repercussions for this. But, you know, what Anna is saying is, you know, we have moved from, you know, standing up for our values, for a group of people on the other side of the world is quite different to us actually being, you know, attacked on our shores here and actually having issues here. So I think that changes the balance between trade and foreign relationship a bit more. - Yeah, but you can't just say if I'm a trader and I'm exporting to China, Lara, I can't just go, ' Oh, well, I need to go export somewhere else.' You've got to develop those markets, so you can't just pivot, can you? - Yeah, I think that long term policy approach is needed. And again, hopefully, hopefully that Labour will move in that direction. I think what really, in terms of the voters and political risk, what represents a political risk and people don't` The average voter does not get into the nitty gritty of foreign policy hard enough to get postgraduate students to get into that. But ultimately, if something does hit the voters pockets in various sanctions and repercussions of our sort of China policy, I think that's where you'll see the real issue come through in the voters. - OK. All right. Well, we're going to wrap it up there. Thank you very much for your time, Lara, Bridget and Anna. E whai ake nei ` New Lynn MP Deborah Russell will share her backstory with us, plus, five hot minutes with ACT's firearms queen, Nicole McKee. - Hoki mai ano ` to Backstory, where we head into the private lives of our MPs to find out what shaped and motivates them. Labour's Deborah Russell is a tax policy specialist with three degrees, including a PhD in philosophy. But there's another side to her. She's also a native of the Republic of Whangamomona and the daughter of a shepherd. - I've always baked. People come to my house, I like to feed them. CHUCKLES: It's really straightforward. It's creative, you know. These muffins I'm making, I made them for my girls all through school. The girls said that they used to trade them around the playground, that quarter of a muffin was worth a small packet of chips. (CHUCKLES) They all started school in Wellington, spent some time in Palmerston North, spent some time in Adelaide. Mostly we were moving because my husband, Malcolm, was shifting to get academic positions, so, you know, we moved to Adelaide cos that was where he got his chair. But Auckland great, isn't it? (CHUCKLES) There's just so much on. And I love living out here in Titirangi, you know ` bush, trees, sea. Yeah, I'm loving it. You know, the traffic is like the weather, you've just got to work with it, and I mostly just stay out in West Auckland. I try very hard not to come to town if at all possible. So I'm a native of the Republic of Whangamomona. Dad was a shepherd and mum had been teaching in the local school just as an uncertified teacher. Actually it's fun going into the pub. All the rugby club photos are on the walls, and my cousins and my uncles and my dad are all through those photos, yeah. So this is my Plunket book ` Deborah Russell's baby record book. READS: 'Eats well.' (LAUGHS) That's kinda cool still having that. This is my school report from St Joseph's in New Plymouth. Apparently, I speak clearly and competently. This is me aged... 10 ` age 10, I can tell from the date ` as Pippi Longstocking in the local speech and drama competitions. Actually, it's one of the problems in our household ` I've got three degrees, but my husband's got four. (LAUGHS) That's just outrageous. I think, looking at what I'm wearing, that was around about the time Malcolm and I got married. You know, I'm married, I've got three kids, our Wellington place has got a white picket fence, so lots of things that look really traditional, but I'm a feminist. These are our twins, Sophia and Bridgid. (ALL CHATTER) Sophia and Bridgid turn 20 today, so I'm out of teenagers. (LAUGHS) Feels very odd. They're great kids, they really are. They're all pretty independent minded. They've been lobbying me on all sorts of issues, saying, 'Mum, why don't you fix?' I was like, 'OK, dear.' They're politician's kids, so they're are a lot more aware of the formal power structures in this country than many young people are. I always interested in politics. We'd been living in Australia, and I'd sort of been thinking I'd quite like to get involved, but, man, have you seen Australian politics? (CHUCKLES) But then we moved back home to New Zealand at the start of 2011, and I joined the Labour Party after the 2011 election. It's a weird place, it really is. It's such a... it's like a boarding school or something like that. It's so institutionalised, but it's exciting as well, you know. There are good days at work when you get something done. I like being part of a team too. We really do operate as a team in the Labour Party, and we get things done together. Gosh, in terms of feminism around Parliament, obviously there's policy we push through which just comes through with a feminist lens on it. Some of the times, it's just being out there so that people know that there are women in there who agree with them and who support them. Sometimes it's within parliament. I sort of think, 'Crikey, that's just some bloke talking for the sake of talking instead of actually making a point.' And I'm sure there are women who do that too, but I do notice it more from some of the men, and I'm not gonna name names. (CHUCKLES) (CHUCKLES) You're so sweet. We met at Otago University Debating Society, and we started going out after we left university. We go walking a bit. There's some great walks around here, so that's really good too. But sometimes, you know, we get to the end of the week, and I sort of get back here and go, 'Oh, you're the chap I'm married to.' (CHUCKLES) Because it just gets so busy. It was about six months after we were actually married to each other that we both realised that the other liked Star Trek as well, so... (CHUCKLES) It was the big secret I kept from him before we got married. - (BOTH CHUCKLE) - And he from me too, so... - I don't see nearly as much of her as I'd like to, but, you know, that's OK, because we've always thought we're in this together, and this is a period of time where I'm really supporting her career and delighted to do it. You know, we've been lucky to grow together over 31 years, and I think both of us, when we married, knew that there was some pretty deep connection there. - And it turned out to be Star Trek. - (BOTH LAUGH) - I just thought that this was a woman that I could spend my life with. - The way I show people I love them is by looking after them. Through my doctoral work in political philosophy, I became interested in how we make the world a better place, how we do that through institutions, and for me, that was what drove me into actually getting formally into politics instead of just commentating from the outside. In terms of how long I do it for, uh, we'll see. But I'm 55 now, so I don't want to hang on in there until I'm 70. (CHUCKLES) I'd rather do, hopefully, a couple more terms and then clear the way for someone else. - Deborah Russell there. Stay with us, we're back with The Pitch after the break. - Welcome to The Pitch, where we give an MP exactly five minutes to sell us all on their ideas. This week it's ACT who have released new policies targeting crime and gangs Nicole McKee is a four-time New Zealand shooting champion and ACT's justice spokesperson. She sat down with Conor Whitten, who began by asking why the focus on gangs. - Well, I think that we actually do have to have a strong focus on gangs, and when we've gone out to the community and asked them questions, they've effectively said they don't like the soft on crime approach and they want to see some harsher penalties and consequences for how the gangs behave. - All right. Let's talk about those penalties. Gang injunction orders ` who would be affected and what would they do? - So, the gang injunction orders would only be eligible for those on the National Gangs List. So, that's 8006 members currently and it would need to be applied by the courts. So, first of all, the police have to put a case together, take it to a judge, a judge then needs to agree that there is a case to answer, and then decides what injunctions to put on those gang members. - So the National Gang List includes people who are gang associates. Many of them haven't ever been convicted of a crime. Is it fair to put injunctions on innocent people? - So, the injunctions will be placed only on those that police make a case for placing those injunctions on. So if they're are on the gang list and they're actually behaving, there should be no need to put an injunction order on them. And when we talk about those penalties, of those 8006 members, they on average hold 36 offences or 36 convictions each. I mean, that's huge. So we're talking about going after the worst of the bad in our society. - So what would you be able to stop them from doing with these? - Well, overseas, they've shown that they've been able to place injunction orders to stop a person from associating with other gang members, from frequenting certain places of business, especially where they think organised crime may be taking place there. And the success rate has been quite high. In the UK, a study in 2017, showed 70% decrease in crime as a result of their gang injunction orders. - Even the British government acknowledges that a lot of gang members just pick up and go somewhere else, so aren't you just going to be shifting the problem around? - Well, the difference with New Zealand is that we are a small country. We're an island nation at the bottom of the earth. So if they want to go to another country, by all means, they can go. But while they're here on our whenua, we're going to make sure our people are kept safe. - You also want electronic income management for people on a benefit. How would that work? - So that would work where we see those members that are on the National Gangs List that are receiving a benefit ` and over 90% cent of them have received a benefit at some stage ` going on electronic management. That way we can make sure that the money that they get from the taxpayers in their benefit is being spent in the right place, not on drugs, tobacco or alcohol. - Does it apply to everybody on the National Gang List? - Yes. - I want to read you a quote from the Police Commissioner. It says, 'It's very easy to get on the list ` we see gang members wearing a patch. 'But it's very hard to get off the list, because if you drift away from gangs, we have no way of knowing.' So how would you know who's in a gang? - I find that hard to believe, especially when in the last 12 months, the police have managed to take 430-odd people off that list. - But this is the boss of police saying they find it hard to take people off it. So you're going to end up capturing people who aren't even in a gang. - Then they need to show, and perhaps they can do it by hanging up their patches, that they're no longer in a gang. - Do you want cashless welfare for all beneficiaries? - We believe that those that abuse the system, the beneficiary system, such as those that have intergenerational use of benefits, those mothers on the DPB that continue to have children while on the benefit, that they need to be put under some sort of management in order to ensure that our children, our tamariki that are coming up, will be cared for properly. - 75% of gang members are Maori, and critics of these policies say they're racist. What do you say to that? - I don't believe that. Well, you know, I do believe that there is a large amount of Maori in gangs, but there's also another side to it that we need to acknowledge in that there's a large amount of Maori who are victims of the gangs. - There's a lot of debate this week about arming police officers. Should frontline police be armed? - I don't believe so. I don't think taking a gun to a gunfight is actually going to make the community safer. It would just be a matter of time before we see an innocent person being shot. I don't want that on the hands of a police officer. - The National Party would like to bring back armed response teams. You wouldn't support that? - At this stage, we don't. The routine traffic stops that they did in certain areas was, in some views, discriminatory. So that's definitely a discussion that we'd like to have. But at this stage, we don't believe that they're needed. - The National Party has been struggling lately. Are you guys the default opposition now? - I think that we are an opposition party that is wanting to hold this government to account, and we're doing a really good job of it. We're focused on us and how we can grow and how we can bring good public policy to New Zealand. That's our goal. What the other opposition parties do is up to them. But we need to focus on New Zealand, good public policy, good laws and actually listening to the people. - Nicole McKee there on the pitch. We're back with our panel, Dr Lara Greaves, Brigitte Morten and Anna Fifield, thanks for your time again. Anna, that's the first time you've really seen Nicole McKee, what did you make of that? - Yeah, I thought she was an extremely articulate and powerful speaker in terms of the ACT position there. I think a lot of what she was saying was not that surprising, what we would expect to hear from ACT, but she's obviously able to draw on a number of backgrounds, her background in firearms and as a Maori woman, to be able to make a really strong case for ACT there, and that's the kind of powerful opposition, I think, that we don't often see from National Party equivalent there. So I think she's a very powerful proponent for ACT. - OK, so some of the policies, they're not surprising, Lara, like, you know, sort of restricting beneficiaries, what they can spend, like the cashless thing, an injunction on gangs. Anything there not surprising? - No, it's just sort of the classic ACT rhetoric. And I think a lot of this actually speaks to the abilities of David Seymour. So whether you love him or loath him or whatever, he has been a great politician, you know, through the End of Life Choice Act and for sort of his team selection, I think a lot of us were picking that there'll be some kind of scandal in some backbench ACT MP, but it actually seems like they're all a fairly sort of strong team, perhaps where National is not. And I think that this is part of that cycle of parties, right? We kind of always like to think back to sort of the Andrew Little and various David Cunliffe days of Labour. We're all talking, oh, maybe the Greens are going to be the new opposition party. And now we're in a cycle where we're saying, hey, maybe ACT. - Where are the Greens? So, Brigitte, I mean, you know Nicole McKee through working with the Council of Licenced Firearm Operators, don't you? - Owners, yes. - So you're not surprised by Nicole McKees presence? - No, absolutely. I mean, this is what we saw her as a spokesperson for COLFO. She was articulate. She was reasonable. She was calm. You know, she's not, you know, bringing up a whole lot of, you know, rhetoric and sort of, you know, building into that fear or anything like that. She's speaking very rationally about the policies, and that's consistent with her approach. - One thing I noticed there in the picture was that she was talking about being against general arming of police, Anna, I was a little bit surprised by that. What do you think? - Yeah, I was also surprised by that. I thought that that was not what she was going to say, but the fact that she has also said that she is in line with the government position, with the police commissioners position, I think speaks to the strength of that argument, that this arming police does not make our communities safer and that may create more danger. - In fact, National has the same position as well, don't they? Yeah. So politically, everybody's on the same side. Speaking of National versus ACT, Bridget, who is the most credible opposition party at the moment? - Well, I think what you're really seeing is a little bit of them creating a more of a space for both of them to be there. You look in the space, and you've got Simeon Brown and you've got Nicole McKee, very different people talking to different audiences. - They're talking about the same subjects, though. - Yes, but in some ways it's amplifiying creating more of that discussion to be happening. And I think this week and the focus on police issues and gangs and things is a product of both of them, not necessarily them fighting out against each other. - Lara, you're shaking your head. - Yeah, no, I disagree with that. I think they're competing for that sort of classic right-wing voter base. And I think that it currently kind of competing for sort of the farmers, the populists, the hard on crime in that space. And I think ultimately, if you're National to win an election, you need to be competing for the centre. You need to be putting forward that more like positive vision and potentially more hammering Labour on COVID. - There has been criticism of National, hasn't it, that they haven't been paying attention in their rebuild to their core constituency, and so should they concentrate on that first maybe and then go? - I think there's a lot of different` I think there's a lot of different types of voters that are generally attracted to National, and it's kind of tricky because it does feel like they're pulling more towards those right populist voters. And I think ultimately they do need to figure out how to bring back the South Island from Labour, how to bring back the people who voted for Labour because of their strong COVID recovery. How do you get them back? - Well, let's talk quickly about Labour. - Anna, do you think the gloss` I mean, Anna, you've come back to this crazy country, and do you think the gloss is coming off just in general, or is it just a mid-term blip? I think it's probably a mid-term blip, but a lot of this is warranted right now. Like we have seen through the COVID response, we started out so well, and now with the difficulties with MIQ, with the problems in the vaccination rollout, various other, you know, political events that are happening, it is a tough time for them. And I think that's just a reflection of that. How do you read it, Briggite? - Well, I definitely think that people are concerned about what those next steps are. Last year, they did think that Labour, you know, keep them safe and sort of rewarded them for that. Now we're looking at, well, what's the plan? I think you're seeing more and more people saying, well, what where are we going next? Are we going to be vaccinated? When are we going to have a stable trans-Tasman bubble, etc. All right, and I think that's all the time we've got for our second panel. Thank you so much for your time. Anna Fifield, Brigitte Morten, and Dr Lara Greaves. And that is all from us for now. Thank you so much for watching. Nga mihi nui, and we will see you again next weekend. Captions by John Gibbs and Sophie Pearce. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2021 This programme was made with the assistance of the New Zealand on Air Platinum Fund.