Today on Newshub Nation ` COVID, cops, and coups ` National leader Judith Collins live from Parliament. The race to reopen New Zealand is on, but we can't do it without vaccinating our children. Will parents do it? And digital editor Finn Hogan, who's up, who's down and who's back online. Tena tatou katoa. I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation Ko nga pitopito korero i te whare paremata, in political news this week ` Former Labour Minister Taito Phillip Fields has died at 68. His portfolios included Minister of State and Associate Minister of Pacific Affairs, Social Development and Justice. He was sentenced to 6 years in prison in 2009 on corruption charges. New modelling released by the government predicts a vaccination rate of 80% could result in 7000 deaths per year without restrictions, with some restrictions and 90% vaccination, the prediction drops to 50 deaths. And the government has announced an extra $45 million for police, including tactical teams and weapons training. National claims the scheme is the return of armed response teams by stealth, but they will not routinely carry firearms. Well, it's the interview we thought we might not be able to bring you. After an emphatic after-midnight text from her press secretary telling Newshub Nation, 'No,' Judith Collins has changed her mind and is joining us this morning, and we're very grateful. Plenty to talk about. Let's cross now to Tova, who's in the Legislative Council Chamber in Parliament, for an extended interview with national leader Judith Collins. - Kia ora, Simon, and tena koe, Judith Collins. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. I want to start on some very sad news this morning that a man in Afghanistan who was waiting on a visa to come to New Zealand ` a relative of his had worked with our Defence Force ` has been killed, possibly by the Taliban. Do you think that the government's done enough to get those who helped us out of Afghanistan, or at least get them visas? - Well, good morning, Tova. I find it heartbreaking. The fact that New Zealand has left behind hundreds of people who worked with our New Zealand troops and also our New Zealand police when they're in Afghanistan, absolutely heartbreaking. And really, the time to have taken them out would have been in May, or even before that when New Zealand troops were coming out. Finally, we simply are not in a position, obviously, to race into Afghanistan and extract people. For a start, you don't know where they are. But there are steps that could be taken, and I just wish that the government had moved a bit faster. - And I can see that this is affecting you. I hope you don't mind me pointing out that it looks like you're almost welling up now. - No, I'm not welling up, but I am feeling very, very sorry that people who put their lives at risk to help us, help our New Zealanders over 20 years, are now being in such danger, and it could have been prevented. So the government announced in February that they were moving the troops out. That was the time to start bringing people out. - Would the National Party extend visas to other relatives? Not just the partners and children of people that worked with us, but broader family? - I think it's very clear is that the Taliban take an attitude that it's not just the one person, the male or female in their household that's been working with the New Zealand troops, but it's pretty much the extended family that are then in danger. I think everyone, we always have to look at things on their merits, and you know, you can't just have a blanket, everybody in. But it is something that the troops know exactly who it is they've been working with. They know the families, they know who they wanted to get out and that they feel extremely let down. Our New Zealand troops, they feel absolutely let down as well. - And mental health is also something that I know you care passionately about. The stocktake that was released this weekend into the $1.9 billion mental health package damning of the Ministry of Health, which got the lion's share, $1.1 billion. Do you think that's such a big wad of cash should have been allocated to the ministry, given it didn't have the systems in place for delivery or oversight? - When Labour announced $1.9 billion in May 2019, the budget, I am on record of saying I wish we had done that, because I thought that that's something that we could have done more in, but we were dealing with everything else too, and it's always about priorities. But how can we say that that's a great result if the government has given themselves an A-plus, and no one else thinks that. We've got 700 suicides a year, and we've got countless more, tens of thousands of people who attempt suicide or who are stopped at the last moment. These are things that are really, really serious, and just saying five extra beds produced for $1.9 billion, everything's on track. No, it's not. People can't get help for their families. - Yeah, those capital projects, I mean, the review, or the stocktake was really damning of those as well. They're taking much longer than they should, the health capital projects, Is mental health the Government's latest Kiwibuild? - I don't want to sort of say the same because KiwiBuild became, unfortunately, a joke, and mental health should never be a joke, but even then, the fact that people can't buy a house, they're in their 30s, they're trying to settle down, have kids, they want to do all these things, and they feel left out, and the government made big promises and didn't deliver. I think what we've seen as almost everything has been covered by COVID, so it's all been 'Well, that's because of COVID.' 'Well, that's because of COVID.' No, it's simply not good enough when we've got people who are now worse off than they were, they've been promised so much more and it hasn't been delivered. And mental health is, I believe the number one health issue that New Zealanders are grappling with every day. - And workforce was another major issue, the government couldn't even say how many mental health workers we've bought for that $1.9 billion. - Would National set aside specific MIQs to bring in healthcare workers from overseas? - Yes, we have to. And we've already got now about 2300 nurses in the country and 600 doctors who have come in as migrant doctors and nurses. Absolutely right to be here, needed here and the government has put them on the slow tracks that have stopped all of the immigration processes. So they're sitting around thinking, they can't join KiwiSaver, they can't buy a house, they can't settle down, and a lot of them can't even bring their families and from overseas, and they haven't seen their families for 18 months. So how about the mental health of those people? So why would they do this? I don't understand it. - Would you be comfortable, though, setting aside those specific MIQs for healthcare workers at the expense of New Zealanders who want to come home, who haven't seen dying loved ones, who haven't seen families for two years? Would you be happy? - I'm happy to say that our health care workers coming into New Zealand have to get preference over something like The Wiggles. I think that is important. So I think there needs to be a point system and it needs to be based on what is needed in the country. But the other thing is, if we can get the vaccination rates up high here, if people are coming from a highly vaccinated area and they have tested negative, there are other things that we can do, and this is all part of our COVID recovery plan that will be announced in the next few days. - Waiting with bated breath. Do you, on those vaccination rates, do you still think that we should scrap nationwide Level 4 lockdowns at 70-75% vaccination coverage? - I think we have an opportunity to do that, but only if we have everything else in place. - Because Shaun Hendy's modelling says we'll be looking at upwards of 14,000 deaths at 70%. Would you be willing to take that gamble? - I think he was really referring to if we opened up the immigration gates at the same time. So that's certainly not what we said. We've said we should be, when you get to 70-75%, you start getting options around lockdowns. - So when open the borders, then? What's the rate? - Well, wait for our plan that's coming out soon. - Chris Bishop said this week, it wouldn't be 80%, it would probably be higher. So what is the number? - So it will be in the plan, and we are getting our plan peer reviewed so that we don't do what the government that yesterday, or the day before yesterday, and end up with fighting modellers. - Do you not trust Professor Shaun Hendy's numbers? - No, I'm not an expert on modelling, but I do have one in the office, I could say in Dr Shane Reti who has published over 12, perhaps 14 internationally recognised academic papers on modelling using artificial intelligence when he was working in Harvard and MIT. - He's a very bright chap. - Yeah. - I'm really interested in whether political parties will set a deadline, regardless for opening up. So say we get to March next year, which would be the two year anniversary of our first lockdown. Would you just bite the bullet? Open the borders regardless of how many New Zealanders have been vaccinated? - No, we have a plan on that. - So it would be a vaccine target? - It's very important that it's not just vaccination because, as we know, even vaccinated people can get COVID and can transmit it. It's got to be about everything else in place. So, for instance, ICU beds and, you know, our intensive care units. We have more 327 ICU beds, that is actually down 31 from last year. So what should we have? Well, at least double that, and we would that put us with the rest of the world where we measure ourselves? Australia has double the number of ICU beds per capita and the UK, which has opened up at is at 60% vaccination. They've got three times the number of ICU beds. And a lot of that is around workforce. So why would we not bring in the specialist nurses and doctors who are well sought out from the world? Why would you have a pay freeze on nurses at a time like this when we're losing them to Australia because they're happy to pick them up? So these are, you know` - Given that you're pointing to those failures of the government, do you think that the Prime Minister, Ashley Bloomfield, Cabinet, do you trust them to set the right target to start opening up New Zealand? - I don't want to say I don't trust them to do their best, but I look at the evidence. The evidence is very clear. We've had COVID for 18 months. We have now fewer ICU beds than we did when it started. We still don't have a saliva test to arrive in the community. We still don't have any of the rapid antigen testing, which would mean you and I could test ourselves this morning if we thought we were going to some situation with people we didn't know. - My mum's doing them every morning in London. - Yes, exactly. And that's what happens. So people taking care of themselves. - One thing that's not happening in London is the vaccine pass to get into venues, but the Prime Minister has told the Weekend Herald that actually she is likely to introduce vaccine passes, which would allow people to go to crowded venues like nightclubs or sports arenas. Would you support that idea? -Well, I think we'd have to think very carefully about that, and why I say that is that every business should have the right to decide who goes into those businesses, so if you're an organiser of a big event, you might want to have it as part of the health and safety measures you take. That's up to those people to make those decisions. But when you're looking at people who are going to work, those sorts of things, it's always has to be a balance, and a balance should not be` - It saves us from those potential super-spreader events. - Well, yes those super-spreader events. And I'm sure most those organisers will want to do that. But we've just got to be careful` - Not having it mandated? - Well, I think we've got to be very careful we don't end up with two classes of citizens. And we also need to understand, too, is that, you know, we are the people who've been talking vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate. We absolutely believe that there are some people who are a bit hesitant, who have been influenced by conspiracy theorists, and all these sorts of things. We need to use our opportunity to educate people on this and particularly use our general practitioners to help them to come through that fear that has been built up. - And what about those who just outright refuse? And I want to talk specifically about beneficiaries because Chris Bishop on our show last weekend said the National Party would be open to sanctions on beneficiaries if they refuse to get vaccinated. What would that look like? - Well, I think we also have to think exactly how that would actually look like because what you don't want to do is to end up putting the most vulnerable people even more vulnerable. - So did Chris Bishop speak out of school? No, no, Chris is saying if people simply don't want to get vaccinated, therefore they don't get to go to their work and they get on a benefit, that's an entirely different situation. Chris is right. We should be looking at this, but it's just how it would look, too. But I'm happy to say we have a plan coming out next week, and it's peer-reviewed, and you'll find that it's pretty comprehensive. - Like I say, on tenterhooks, feel free to tell us anything during the course of this interview. I do wanna move away from COVID death and talk about cops. This week, the government announced more technical tactical and units for police. You in the past have supported the controversial armed response teams, which were being scrapped. Do you think this new package goes far enough? - Well, I think it's armed response teams, but instead of saying that they'll be armed with a gun on the hip, they decide whether or not they've got a gun on the hip. Um, look honestly, just it's an acknowledgement, isn't it, that the government and the commissioner of police got it wrong by stopping the armed response teams. Armed response teams are used in the UK. The UK and New Zealand are two of the few countries in the world where police are not routinely armed. But we have to be very sensible. The police are at risk. They are at risk a lot these days and what we're seeing is that we need to move to make sure that these armed response teams or whatever they've renamed them, that they do, you know, we support them happening. - So in the past, you haven't supported the general arming of police, but if gun crime continued to increase. Would you reconsider? - Well, I think it's hypothetical at this stage, and I've always believed that the New Zealand public utterly does not support a general arming of police. But they do support` - You say the public doesn't, but one of your criticisms of the police commissioner is that he's lost the trust of the frontline. 73% of frontline cops want general arming of police. So of trust of the frontline is so important to you, wouldn't you listen to them and advocate` - Well it is very important, and that's what I've said. That's why when I was the minister of police, I made sure they got the funding so that they could carry their firearms with them when they're in frontline situations, when they believe that they should. So that was actually a step for them to take that initiative. Then, of course, change of government, and it all becomes all so difficult. Now they've got another look at that. So I believe that, you know, we don't necessarily need to have every police officer wandering around with a gun as they're going into a court situation or if they're doing, I don't know, a police in schools, cops in schools programme. But when you're talking about frontline police, they need to have access to firearms very quickly. - And I know you don't want to talk about this, but your caucus does. I spoke to a lot of your employees yesterday, and they're not happy. They're not happy with the polls. They're not happy with your leadership. They think that Simon Bridges would have the numbers and he could be asked to step up early next year. Will you fight to keep your job? - I'm going to make this very clear. I've never seen the caucus so happy. The caucus is actually really happy working hard on the things that matter to New Zealanders. That's why I can say to you that today we are launching a petition on the three waters reform and that next week we'll be launching an entire programme on COVID response right after that. But actually, Tova, what I'm seeing is a caucus that is dedicated to doing the work and they're not talking about anything else. - But they are. The consensus is around the polls, they're not happy with the polling numbers. If you stay in the 20s, would you go graciously? - I've got to. Look, everybody understands that we are in a COVID lockdown situation. And we're always aware of what happens with that. Look, it happened to Simon Bridges when we was 40% and then we dropped down to about 20. - Could you ever work under him again, or would you quit and force a by-election? - I want to make this really clear. I am staying. I'm not going. I am staying. I have a job to do. I'm doing that job and I've had to make some changes to make sure that we can do that job better. And if I look at our team, I know that their focus on the job. That's what I'm here to talk about. Things that matter. - Why is it that you haven't done any of your own internal polling since the election? Is it because you're scared of the numbers or you don't have the cash? - I'm not here to talk about polling what I am here to talk about` - But why aren't you doing it, because isn't it a gauge from the public? - What is very important for us is to think for the future. So for instance, the work we're doing, the work we're paying for is around things that matter, like a COVID response, the work that we're doing is around things like three waters reforms. That's what we're putting our focus into. We're not looking historically. - Have you also put money into hiring an external PR company to help improve your image? - Not on my image. Not at all. We do, however we do, however, and I'm very clear with the caucus, I let the caucus know just about everything that's going on. - They let me know some of it too. - I'm happy to share with you that we are looking at how we can up our game around social media, how we can up our game around messaging, and it's very important to` - And you're bringing in external consultants to do that? - Well, that's what most parties do. - OK. I mean, it's the scourge of the opposition, it's not unique to the National Party. Andrew Little was in a similar situation when he was Labour leader. He handed over, passed over the leadership to Jacinda Ardern, and he told me this week you've got to do what's right for your party. Would you put the National Party ahead of your own personal ambition? - I've always put the National Party ahead of any ambition I have, and that's why I'm staying. - But does it niggle at you at all that you could be leading the party into the brink of oblivion, like two Chief National Party Press Secs have said recently? - No, not at all, in fact, I would be very clear about this is that is no two chief press secs that I've certainly heard of. One person was there for a very short period of time, who I took over quite kindly. But obviously, this party has to work and focus on the things that matter. That's why I'm here to talk about COVID, Afghanistan, Taxes even if you want to. Very happy to talk about that and Mental Health. - And we've done all that` - And I'm not, and I'm not going to get distracted by it. And the thing is, Tova, is that I am not the one distracted by these things. Actually, the media has an obligation as well to be focussed on the things that matter. - And we have canvassed all of those things. It's your caucus who are the ones talking about this. I just wanna, because I am really grateful that you joined us this morning because you were pulled from this interview in a 1:33 AM text message, which also banned all of your employees from coming on Newshub. - No, it didn't. - I've got the text here. - I've got the text, too, and it wasn't` Our chief press secretary has given me exactly those` - 'Certainly not with Tova. 'That's likely to be the position across the board going forward. 'I'll be taking the same approach with all National MPs. - It's very clear, Tova, you can't pull someone from an interview when it's never been agreed to. - Did you overrule the decision? - I never agreed to the interview until yesterday when your producer reached out to my chief press secretary and said that you would want to talk about the things that matter, and that's what I'm here to talk about. - We always wanna talk about the things that matter. - Thank you very much for your time this morning and, talking about the things that matter with us this morning. Kia ora, Judith Collins. - Thank you. Back to you, Simon. - Thanks, Tova. Judith Collins with Tova O'Brien, there. And if you've got a news tip, please get in touch for on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Or you can email us at Nation@TV3.co.nz E whai ake nei, we dissect the week's political news with our panel. But first, in these dark days for small businesses, where's the minister been? Stuart Nash joins us after the break. - Hoki mai ano. Welcome back. Mixed feelings for people running businesses this week ` relief about the country leaving Level 4 behind, but a lot of damage has already been done. Treasury figures released to Newshub Nation reveal this current lockdown has cost $5.92B and counting, and that doesn't take into account the human toll. - I lost who I was. I felt very suicidal because I felt guilty that I couldn't give my staff what they deserved. - Almost half a million people went back to work in the city today. - But it's not enough. - If it wasn't because of the help of the landlord, technically, we should be shut down by now. - There will more than likely be more closures. - If we're not in Level 1 or financially supported in Level 2, we'll be closed by January. - This colourful protest seeking to change the rules so growers can sell their flowers via contactless deliveries. - Each week, we're throwing about 50 to 55,000 stems out. (CROWD SINGS ALONG TO MUSIC) - It's just a waiting game, really, to see some clarity around mass events at the end of the year. - It's the lack of communication that's difficult for us. - Some dark days for many people running businesses in New Zealand. Fair to say, we haven't seen a lot of the Minister for Small Business, Stuart Nash, lately, but he does join me now from Napier. Tena koe Minister, thanks for coming to the show. Just quickly before we talk` - Kia ora Simon. Good to be here. - Great. Just before we talk business, there is some developing news this morning. A COVID positive case has presented at Auckland's Waitakere Hospital. Can you give us any insight into that case or whether we have anything else that's come to light since yesterday's 1pm presser? - Look, my understanding from that case is all the protocols were followed, that the DHB put out a press statement and as per usual, wait until the 1 o'clock announcements. But as mentioned, my understanding was all protocols were followed. - All right. I will look forward to 1 o'clock. Let's talk business. One of the business owners that we just featured had to sell their house to pay last lockdown's debts. Now they're hit with this lockdown. Have you done enough for people like them to stop them from going under? - Well, you know, we always acknowledge that this is a really tough time. But one thing we've done as a government is ensured that it's a risk-based approach, it's a health-based approach. And I think what we've shown over, well, since COVID hit our shores is that the health-based approach does turn out to be the best economic approach. - Do you think that's going to be the best? We're going to get this bounce back that, you know, Grant Robertson has been talking about again, because this time around, business seems to feel like they've done it a bit harder. - Well, it's not only to Grant Robertson that's talking about this, if you have a look at all the figures from all the major banks, what they are forecasting is about a 6% hit. And about a 7.5, an 8% increase. So, you know, that's what we're forecasting. That's what we saw in the last lockdown, and so, you know, that's what we're expecting. - All right. So there's been the wage subsidy again, and you have given more than one COVID resurgence payment to businesses. But the criticism there is that it just doesn't cover the rent and the insurance. It's not enough. Is there anything else in the pot for those small businesses? - Well, let me give you some figures on that, Simon. In the last lockdown, a company with about 10 employees would have received about $23,000. This time, they would have received about $35,000, so there has been more money going out in the resurgence support payment. But you know, this is tough. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that this is easy for any businesses, and I understand it's not only the financial hit or wellbeing, there's mental health and wellbeing that goes with this, but I absolutely believe that the health response is by far the best economic response. You know, we talk about a number of other countries around the world and you were talking about these earlier, and, you know, we have performed better, I think, than any other country in the world. And we've been very, very clear about this, Simon. The way forward is through vaccination. You know, we hear this everywhere, but it is the truth. If people get vaccinated, it is a lot easier for cabinet to make important decisions about where we go from here. - But in the meantime, until we get those targets, which we will talk about soon, are you sitting back and saying, look, this is as much as support that I can give as a small business minister? Is that it? - No, I mean, minister Robertson himself has said that, you know, we continue to assess the situation, and if we feel it's appropriate or necessary, then, you know, we will look at other measures. You know, you'll be well aware that the COVID Response and Recovery Fund has got an extra $7B. There's another $3B that that hasn't been spent in the first fund that is available. So, you know, we will continue to look and understand the state of the economy as the facts come through, but at this point in time, there's no other announcements to make. - All right. Well, let's talk about certain sectors which have been hit hard, and one is the hospitality industry, and they've been lobbying you, and the Restaurant Association is saying, thousand businesses gone last lockdown, 13,000 jobs so far, expecting it to be just as bad in the coming months. They're asking for targeted relief or a targeted kind of policy for them. What's your response? - Well, Minister Robertson, Minister Clark and myself met with the representatives from the hospitality industry. One thing we asked for them is to give us a proposal to see what they would like. We will take a look at that, but this is an interesting sector, Simon. I am under no illusion that under alert` any alert level, it is really difficult for these guys to do business. Also, keep in mind, about four or five months ago, they were coming to us and saying that they just did not have enough workers, as you know, as their companies or businesses surged. So, you know, it is a really difficult sector. - So they did come to you with certain things. One proposal was like a reopening payment. Is that is that a yes or no for that one? - What we did do is we implemented something like that across the five regions in the South Island that had been severely hit by the lack of international tourists. So` - That's in the tourism, but that's not across the board in hospitality though. - Yes, it is. If businesses meet a certain criteria in those regions, whether they're hospitality or whatever, then they are eligible for that payment. - Your biggest region is Auckland, and that's not getting any particular treatment in this regard, is it? - Yeah, but I would be` I want to reiterate, Simon, that we've paid over $2.5B in the wage subsidy, over $850M in the resurgence payment. So there has been a lot of money that's gone out the door, a lot of support available to businesses. But you know, please don't get me wrong. I understand that times are really tough for business. I do that. I do understand that. But we're giving a, you know, significant level of support. I talk regularly to Michael Barnett, who's head of the chamber down there to get a feel of what's happening and Auckland. So I am aware of the situation in Auckland. I'll go back to the original point. - He would definitely tell you` Yeah, what's that? - Let me get back to the original point that the health response is by far the best response. You know, between the first lockdown and this major lockdown, we've pretty much had about 521 days, I understand, where there's been no stay at home order. So, you know, we have seen a V-shaped recovery off the last` - And you have made that point. - All the economists have predicted that's what were going to see when we come out of this. - And you've made that point, too. Let's just move on a little bit, though. There's an uneven playing field coming up, isn't there? Level 2 businesses in the South Island and elsewhere, even where you are in sunny Hawke's Bay, can get the wage subsidy if their income's affected by Auckland's lockdown. But when Auckland businesses come into Level 2, there won't be that cash cushion for them. And three weeks ago, Grant Robertson said, 'Yeah, OK, we'll look at that'. Is there anything further on that that you can offer? - Look, when Auckland visitors come to town, they've got to bring their alert level with them, we're well aware of that. And you've seen the different mandating around the wearing of masks and other health responses that keeps our community safe. And that is the bottom line. You know, one thing I want to say, Simon, is when you come into government, in the playbook of how to run a government, there is no chapter or no section on how to manage a global pandemic. And if you have a look at what's happening around the world, what's happening in New Zealand, very, very hard to argue that we haven't got this right compared to many of the nations that we compare ourselves to. - But it is a moveable feast and everything is changed, and Auckland in particular, the engine room of the economy, where those businesses will not get a cash cushion like the rest of the country when they come to Level 2, will they? Unless you're going to announce something? - Well, I'm not going to announce anything, obviously. But what we would say, it's about keeping people safe. At the moment, we have COVID cases in Auckland, as you're well aware, we don't have COVID cases anywhere else. The Director General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield, believes that we have got this under control. That's the reason why we dropped from Level 4 to Level 3. - All right. - Cabinet is always assessing this. And you know, every day you get an update around what is happening in the country in terms of how we're managing, and I think as mentioned, I think you'll find that the best economic response` - Is the health response. I understand that. OK, let's move on to your other portfolio, tourism, which obviously, you know, small business as well. After last lockdown, the big campaign was, hey, New Zealand, get out and support in the domestic industry, the domestic tourists to support the industry because we don't have the borders open. But is it going to be enough money this time around to support that industry, or was the industry just going to, you know, just lose more jobs? - Well, I don't think they'll lose more jobs. I mean, we saw a massive increase in Kiwis travelling around the country. I mean, even pre-lockdown, domestic tourism accounted for about 60% of total tourism. And what we did see is Kiwis travel. Tourism New Zealand, whose mandate pre-COVID was to be marketing eyes and ears offshore. We changed their mandate, obviously, because there were no tourists coming in from offshore to concentrate on New Zealand. They worked very closely with the regional tourism organisations. So you had Tourism New Zealand running that national 'Do Something New, New Zealand' campaign in your regional organisations. - So are we going to rely on that again until we get the borders open after this lockdown? - Well, it's a very important part of the tourism sector. So of course, we do rely on it when there are no international tourists. But, you know, let me just say that, you know, domestic spending was up by 19% on pre-COVID figures. So, you know, Kiwis are getting out and about and supporting. Obviously, Kiwis can't travel overseas, but they are getting out and about and going to wonderful places and exploring the country. - A couple of quick questions before we go, Minister. Will you require international tourists to be vaccinated? - We're still working on that, but I would suspect so, yes. But you know, there's no hard and fast rule on that. - All right. What about tourism operators themselves? If you're a tourism operator, do you have to be vaccinated? And would you require them to ask anybody coming to their shop to be vaccinated? - Well, it's a very compelling value proposition. I would argue, if you're vaccinated and you end up with COVID, the very high odds, you won't end up in hospital. If you're not vaccinated and you get COVID, there's odds you'll end up in hospital. I would say that's a very, very strong value proposition. - And finally, just a message` - Look, I have... So what I would say is I've heard one Auckland restaurant owner say that he will not allow anyone into any of his premises unless they can prove they vaccinated. That is a decision that he will make. But again, you know, you've heard we will never mandate vaccines or make it compulsory, but I think the value proposition is extremely strong around getting vaccinated. - All right. Can you just reassure small business and tourism operators that until we get to those levels of vaccination where we can all be free and move freely around, you have their back. Just briefly. - Well, we're certainly talking to them. We're looking at how we can continue to ensure that they survive. But again, I'll just reiterate my point ` this is really tough for small businesses, I absolutely understand that. But we do have their back. - You do? They're not on their own? - The resurgence support payment is evidence of that. They're not on their own. We're listening. - Small Business Minister Stuart Nash, thank you very much for your time this morning. All right, coming up ` are we really aiming to reopen the country with all our children unvaccinated? But first, digital editor Finn Hogan joins us with a surprise addition to this week's political top 10 online. I am joined now by our panel, Muslim leader Aliya Danzeisen and High Court barrister Brigitte Morten for their reckons. Morena and tena korua to you both. Thanks for your time. - Judith Collins ` 'I am staying'. Is that what she needs to say, Brigitte? - Yeah, absolutely. This is not the time for change, you know, we don't want to be talking about opposition leadership changes, we want to be talking about how we get out of COVID. So I think absolutely that's what she's got to be saying, because she has got to make the message about stability. - Yeah. So she's saying that she's never seen the caucus so happy, but they are going to up their game around messaging. Are they getting their message across, Aliya? - No. And the message that's coming across is quite harsh. And we need the Judith Collins that we saw during the debates in the election that is putting forward good ideas and inspiring people rather than really bringing vitriol and negativity. We need positive energy coming from her, and she needs to inspire both her base, and she needs to start working on inspiring the nation, which hasn't bought into the message she's been doing of late. - OK, let's talk about that. So Judith Collins today was saying that it's a distraction to be talking about this, and that's what you just said, Brigitte. But it's been an interesting week. You know, it's sort of been on again, off again with Judith Collins, and our programme, and Bridge-runs and things like that. I mean, is there any idea what's really going on behind the scenes? I know she says the caucus is so happy. - Yeah, there's no doubt that the low polling numbers have caused some disruption. And the fact, you know, when you've got half your caucus, you know, in lockdown, like any other team, like any business, you know, it is going to cause issues in terms of communication and going back and forth. So I think, you know, this has been a bumpy week. I think that interview that she just did with Tova really demonstrates that, you know, on the key things that she thinks that we should be focussing on, she's got some really clear messages and they have been doing the hard work on it. But the key is here not to get distracted by some of that vitriol you know, as Aliya was saying, you know, you've got to be careful you don't fall into that attack trap that Simon Bridges did last year during COVID. - So that was, as you mentioned, the interview with Tova, Judith wanted to talk about the things that matter, so does Tova. And some of those things are, like in terms of the government on mental health, Aliya, Judith Collins is saying that the government's given themselves an A-plus but nobody else has. Does she have a point there? - Mental health comes from causes, and I would say that the government needs to look at the core causes a bit more rather than the back end. They're funding the back end when people are really at the far end, but, you know, and really in deep strife. But what about the front end so that we don't get a lot of people into that strife and into that mental health area? And I think the government has been quite weak in that area. So in a way, she is right, but it's how what's funded and what's defined as mental health. Mental health, when someone seeing a counsellor is extraordinarily important, but we would like to get a lot of people so that they don't need to be going there regularly or even accessing those services and needing them. - Yeah. Brigitte, mental health is a bit of an Achilles heel for the government, I guess, because, you know, $1.9B big announcement, even Judith Collins admitted that she wishes that she'd done that when she was in government. But the delivery? Not good. - No, absolutely. And this is the government of non-delivery, isn't it? And mental health is something that they really platformed on, and that's because it is so important and it's affecting every level of society. So there's no excuse for them not to have done anything on this. They've got the money there, they've got the resources there. It seems completely and utterly just that they can't deliver and can't project manage through it. - Another issue this week is the vaccination levels. So we've got the dire, dire predictions of 80% would lead to thousands of deaths and countless hospitalisations. And then National makes the point that you know that they have been slow on delivery in terms of various things like saliva testing, antigen testing, ordering vaccinations early enough. Is the government vulnerable here, Aliya, in terms of the speed of delivery? - I think that we would like it as quick as possible, no question. However, I don't see us lagging behind. You can see the uptake in the vaccination that's been going on. And I think that we were a bit on the back heel because we were trying to let the world that wasn't in front, you know. We've been very fortunate in New Zealand. So I think we're OK as long as we keep working really, really diligently to get everyone vaccinated. And that's the first priority. And we've got to, you know, get people believing in information and science again and education on that. And it's a big task, and I think they're putting their all into it. - Yes, I mean, trying to get people to, as you say, Aliya, to believe in the science. And, you know, the science or the modelling of the prediction, Brigitte, was, you know, those quite alarming figures this week. And yet you're having another modeller like Rodney Jones questioning that. Is the government bringing people along with them in that rush to get to 90%? - Well, I think the most concerning thing was really platforming that, you know, form of fearmongering, and I could understand why they did. They wanted to show how important it was to get vaccinated, which I think were all on the same page about. But you've got to be really careful that you're not putting these figures out there that are so extreme and so questionable that people are not then going, 'Well, I don't really believe that I think this is still part of the rhetoric'. We are at a point now where we're not actually, you know, needing to talk at this really high level about vaccination. Those people heard those messages, we've got vaccinated. Really that targeted one-on-one, you know, it is the vaccination buses. It is, you know, making sure that, you know, the maraes have all the resources possible. That's where the focus has really got to be. I think, you know, they've got to be really careful that they're not using that 1pm platform to kind of fearmonger us into why we still need to be in lockdowns. - Aliya, do wonder whether that kind of messaging could backfire, as Brigitte says, and push people away, saying, well, we're never going to reach that. Why bother? - Well, I do think going back to, even what I said about Judith Collins, we need inspiration. I think the nation needs to be motivated rather than pushed into fear. And especially given what we've been going through for the last two years, you know, emotionally, it really` we respond as a nation to positivity, hope. And you've seen it happen, so why are we going back to that fear? I do think that we have to do the one-on-ones. I've been vaccinated, my family's been vaccinated, everybody's all right, and I'm having those conversations with my community, and that's what we need. Everybody who is to let people know what they've gone through, how their experience is so that people feel comfortable with it. And that's the hope that it's going to get better, and it is a positive step to do. - OK, I think we're going to leave it there for the moment. Thank you so much to Aliya Danzeisen and Brigitte Morten for their reckons this morning on our panel. E whai ake nei ` digital editor Finn Hogan brings us his digital power rankings, and with no vaccine in sight for our kids, experts warn a large Delta outbreak among children is inevitable. We'll look into those risks. - Hoki mai ano and welcome back. The last fortnight has seen some redistribution of political power ` online. That's according to our digital editor Finn Hogan, so I checked in with him to find out who's up, who's down and why. - Well, good morning, Simon, and look who is clambering back into the top 10. It's the once and potentially future Queenmaker, Winston Peters. He's back in the digital saddle, baby. And I'm not saying that Winston is back on Facebook purely because I said he should be last time, but, you know, I'm not not saying that. I like to think that he watches the show and this is his favourite segment. - Who could argue with that? So what's his Facebook angle? - Well, look, so far it's pretty standard Winston, anti-woke sort of stuff. And this works to a certain point. You know, it always gets numbers on social. But I think there's diminishing returns overall with this, because it's a crowded lane politically to be in right now. David Seymour dominates the conservative discourse overall, we've also got Simon Bridges, you know, hitting out at anti-woke sort of cops. So I think he's going to have to find a bit of a different lane to sort of stand out from the crowd. I don't think he's going to get back to parliament purely on an anti-woke platform. - Well, what about the MP are actually in parliament? - Judith Collins, she's still in the top 10, but she's kind of only just clinging on, and she's posting the least out of any of them. And that means she's actually starting to get less traction than even Winston Peters. And you might say, well, why does that matter? But Facebook is the front page of the internet for many Kiwis. 70% of the country is on there, so political leaders need to be there to steer the public conversation, and right now, Judith isn't. - All right, and what about the parties themselves? - Yeah. Well, to continue a trend, now the Act Party page is actually getting more engagement than the National Party page overall. And that's quite impressive considering that they've actually got fewer than a quarter of the followers of the National Party page overall. Now that's partially explainable, because they're posting twice as much as National currently, and that just sort of goes to show that they're still continually, hungrily stepping into any space that the Nats vacate, and that is particularly true online. - So what's driving the numbers? Just posting more? - Well, partially. But Simon, it really comes down to memes and money. These are the two pillars of the Facebook economy. Now, Seymour has been the butt of many a meme himself over time, but it seems like he's learnt from that experience to weaponize memes in his favour. And you can laugh at it, but memes are actually an extremely effective way of attacking your political enemies. If a picture's worth a thousand words, a meme is probably worth at least a million. And when memes aren't enough, money goes very far on Facebook. Act have actually spent about 5 grand on this ad campaign slamming the government over housing, and it's starting to show dividends. So overall, Act and David Seymour are going to be very happy this week. - Are they the only ones splashing the cash? - Not just them. The Green Party as well have actually spent about 2 grand on their ad campaign pushing people towards the Greens' housing policy page, but they're not really getting much of a bump out of it. And this kind of goes to show that just spending money is enough. You need a strong message, and the Greens are not very active on Facebook right now, and it goes to show if you're the least active party like they are, you're not going to get much cut-through. - I see the Outdoors Party back, beating both them and Te Pati Maori in overall engagement. How is that happening? - Yeah, look, as we touched on previously, they've embraced anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and it is driving engagement for them. It's proven to not just be a blip. And I do think the government's really going to have their work cut out for them to craft some really effective pro-vaccine messaging on social media if we're going to reach that 90% target that they've set. - All right, and just before we go, and honourable mention. - Yes, Labour MP Kieran McAnulty is selling his iconic red ute, and he's promoting it through Facebook. You may remember, Simon, this is the red ute that he literally fought to defend when someone tried to steal it, and he's donating all of the proceeds from selling the car to mental health charity. So overall, it's a great cause. It's an average ute, but good on him. - Digital editor Finn Hogan. Thanks very much. - Thank you very much, Simon. - OK. Stay with us. We're back after the break. Well, the race to reopen New Zealand is well and truly on, but are we really going to do it with all our children under 12 years old unvaccinated? New modelling predicts an outbreak of 100,000 children if they aren't. Pfizer is reporting good immune results from its vaccine trial in children, but if it is approved here, will parents get their children vaccinated? - A piece of chalk, Hazel! - Playing without a care in the world, 6-year-old Hazel and her sister Frankie don't realise how they could be the key to a less restricted life with Delta. - Can I have some? - I do think it is a little bit concerning how much we depend on those over-5s being vaccinated to reach that 90% community protection. - If 90% of 5-plus were vaccinated, that would massively reduce the number of hospitalisations and deaths across the whole population, as well as providing protection, you know, for children in that 5 to 12-year-old age group. - There are 461,860 children aged between 5 and 11, and currently they have no protection from COVID. - Children can't be vaccinated. It will reach them, and we've seen it reach them in this outbreak. - In this current outbreak. 40% of cases are 19 or younger. 17.5% are 9-years-old or younger. - I think with the more infectious variant and with changing the vaccinated population, we're going to see the younger people are going to have the virus and have the infection. But it is still important that we know that children don't get seriously unwell with this infection, but yes, they are likely to experience if we and when we have COVID in the community. - Very small risk doesn't mean no risk. Children who catch COVID can develop a condition called post-inflammatory multisystem syndrome. - Fever that's unrelenting two to three weeks after the COVID infection in a young child, and they can get inflammation in many of their organs. It is rare and uncommon, but they are seeing in waves following the COVID infection. Most have recovered. But yes, it is a very serious illness and needs intensive care. - So that takes us back to the vaccine. Pfizer this week reported a good immune response and trial of 2200 5 to 11-year olds. It's planning to apply for United States approval by the end of this month. - It is early days. I mean, this is data that is, at the moment, a press release. I think it's going to be` We need to see where it's going to fit into New Zealand's COVID strategy. - It's also a case of convincing parents. - I would give it to my children, as long as it, obviously, had been ticked off. And I feel like in New Zealand, our health department do take a very considered and safe approach when it comes to considering all that information. - The Ministry of Health has not yet surveyed parent attitudes to vaccinating under-12s, but it has previously asked parents of 12 to 15-year-olds whether they would allow them to get jabbed. In May, 55% said definitely or likely. Then when Delta hit in August, that jumped to 73%. Those highly unlikely or definitely wouldn't drop from 26% to 14%. The main concern of that 14% was that the vaccine could have long-term effects, and such is the sensitivity around vaccinating children that parents I spoke to of children who had been infected with COVID told me that they would still choose not to have their younger children vaccinated. - We have a lot of information about this vaccine already, and there's not any reason to expect that long term effects are going to be any different in a child of 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 versus a child 12, 13, 14, 15 or a pregnant woman or an elderly person. - New Zealand children are routinely vaccinated for other diseases. In June this year, 85% of five year olds were fully immunised. That's promising because the flip side is not pretty. Not vaccinating primary school kids means 20% of them could get COVID. - And so, you know, if we were to open up with that level of vaccine coverage, we could potentially see 100,000 infections in children. - So primary school kids are essential to a free future. With Auckland schools possibly returning in term four, Rachel Forman is already asking the hard questions. - I have actually checked with the school to see if it's possible to know whether all the teachers will be vaccinated, and that's not information that they're able to ask or give out. - Until a vaccine is approved, it's up to the rest of the country to keep the kids safe. Keeping the kids safe, a good question to take back to our panel. Aliya Danzeisen and Brigitte Morten. Thanks for your time again. Is this going to be quite a sticking point, do you think, Aliya, trying to get the 5 to 12-year-olds vaccinated? - There's a fear, for the parents, for the children that will be going to school. We need to get people to understand the consequences. I've been on the calls to the states with friends who have had to put their kids out and have seen neighbouring schools lose children because of, you know, their immunity not being strong enough, and losing children in the sense of dying. And so we don't want children to die. We want them to be safe. I know parents do, and we have to rely on the science and what the science says. In this case, I have good trust myself, personal trust in Dr Bloomfield, and hopefully we can get there. It's going to be hard, though. - Yeah, this is going to be tricky messaging for the government to try and convince parents, because it's their children, their most vulnerable that they're talking about, isn't it, Bridget? - Yeah, absolutely. And I think what we're seeing here is because we are behind in vaccination, behind the rest of the world. What is happening is that we're not yet have the capacity, you know, to vaccinate those under 12. If we don't have that public education campaign out there, I think for most parents, they are concerned because they actually don't know what the right thing is to do. You know, we've got that strong anti-vax message for adults and for teenagers. But actually, you're 12 and under, what is the right thing you mean to do for your children? What do you think we need to take into consideration? And it's not just for those kids, it's also for our teachers and the people in our early childhood educators, those people that are interacting with the kids as well over time. - There's a real balance here because we don't have the vaccination for 5+ at the moment. And yet we're just about to head probably into Level 2for Auckland, hopefully. Soon schools will reopen and we're rushing to either reopen the borders and get 90% vaccinated. We don't have a vaccine for the five-plus. It's a real sort of uncertain period coming up earlier. - Yeah, well, the world doesn't have a full vaccination. People are vaccinating and they're running tests, but they haven't been there yet. You know, even in the States. So the issue is, and the benefit that we have here in New Zealand is that we can wait a little bit to step off that cliff in comparison to the other countries that have really been taking the brunt of the epidemic. So we can delay it a little bit and look at the science and see which way is safer. But that messaging is, as Bridget said, is extraordinarily important. It has to be done right. - All right. Let's talk small business community, and the minister, Stuart Nash, who was on the programme, got a sense from him that there's no more support coming, that the government feels, Brigitte, that it's done enough for business. The health response is the right business response. - Yeah, and I think there's a point of frustration, you know, I'm in the middle of the Wellington CBD at the moment, and you can just see here that retail and hospitality under Level 2 is massively struggling. You know, public servants haven't come back to work. It's the middle of Grant Robertson's electorate. So he must be able to see for himself that even at Level 2 that it's not sustainable for a lot of businesses and that's going to ring out across the country and across Auckland, even when they get to that Level 2 status. I think also, you know, Stuart Nash, you know, saying the most important thing here is vaccination. Well, you know, the severity of the restrictions we're under, we would not necessarily be in this place if we had more people vaccinated by this point. So I don't think it's, you know, in part it is the government's fault that we are under certain restrictions. So I think they've got to take some responsibility and look at beyond what they previously provided and whether or not there's some other tailored solutions that they need to make. - Right. OK, I mean, Ali, I know that, you know, you told me that you're producing or helping do food parcels for people. I mean, you're seeing it on the front line of the effect of this kind of lockdowns. Yeah we're putting out, just in the Waikato, 100 packs for our community, which we didn't have the last lockdown. So it's something really intense out there, because it's just sustained. But I'd like to call on the government to start diversifying their approach related to small businesses and tourism. We need to diversify our economy, The pandemic has shown that, that reliance on just tourism alone to bring in money into the economy is not good enough. So why aren't we looking for businesses that have potential to, OK, maybe We don't give them more money, but talk to them about investing in and supporting them so that both the business and the country can benefit as we strive forward. We need creative ideas like that to get us going, and we're not seeing it. No hope. - Yeah, I mean, so just quickly, Brigitte, diversifying the economy is another whole big topic there, isn't it? - Yeah, absolutely. But it's not going to help, you know, the coffee shop that's struggling this morning, the tourism business or the, you know, Auckland business that doesn't know when they're going to got to open. So I think, yes, it's a conversation we should be having, but they need to think about what the support is they can do right now. - And we'll leave it there for the. - Yeah but they can come in and` - I'm sorry, Aliya, I think we're out of time. It is a big topic, but we're going to have to leave it there. Aliya Danzeisen and Brigitte Ward, thank you so much for your time this morning. And that is all from us for now. Nga mihi nui, thank you for watching. We'll see you again next weekend. Captions by Emma Bartoszewicz Poole and John Gibbs. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2021 This programme was made with the assistance of the New Zealand on Air Platinum Fund.