a tense wait for the country for the government's COVID alert decisions on Monday. Epidemiologist Rod Jackson with his pick of the scenarios. New terror laws have passed ` but not unanimously. MP Teanau Tuiono had his home raided in 2007 under terrorism laws, and he sounds a warning. And the Oranga Tamariki report is in, and there will be no independent agency by Maori for Maori. Why not? The man who delivered the plan joins us live. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2021 Tena katou katoa, I'm Simon Shepherd, and welcome to Newshub Nation. Ko nga pitopito korero i te whare paremata, in political news this week ` There are 260 active cases of COVID in the community, including 19 announced on Friday. Of those, 21 are in hospital. Cabinet will decide on Monday whether Auckland can drop to Alert Level 2. Australia will reopen its borders to vaccinated travellers in November, a month ahead of the planned reopening. Rules will vary state by state, but they must hit an 80% vaccination target before allowing travel. And following months of pressure on the government, 165,000 skilled migrants already working in New Zealand will be fast-tracked to residency, provided they meet certain criteria. The policy was accidentally posted to the Immigration New Zealand website, ahead of a formal announcement. To wrap up a frenetic week in Parliament, our senior reporter Conor Whitten is standing by to give his behind-the-scenes analysis of the political week. Tena koe, Conor. It's been very busy. The government's cranked through a lot this week ` immigration, rent relief, terror laws. Why so much? - Yeah, in some ways, Simon, it's been business as usual here, and of course, in other ways it is anything but. The hallways here are still eerily empty throughout the week ` all of those Auckland MPs aren't here ` but the government has pressed on with an awful lot in the House. We've seen counter-terror laws passed, of course, as you mentioned, under urgency, and there are some concerns over how quickly that's happened. We'll get to that just a little bit later this morning. But we've also seen a number of surprises here this week. After months of nothing to say on the so-called immigration reset, there's been a pathway to residency for 165,000 migrants announced out of the blue this week. The government's hand might have been forced a little bit on that one because a public official accidentally put it up early on the website. Also, big surprises for commercial landlords with changes around commercial rents, and the other big surprise has been the Trade Minister's trip. He is off to` Damien O'Connor off to Washington and to Europe. Normally we'd know about this stuff well in advance, but this one came out of the blue again, not from the government, but from a US official. O'Connor is off to five countries in Europe, and the most important thing there is the one that's missing. There is no trip scheduled to the UK; that's the one that we've been wanting a free trade deal with ever since Brexit. And you have to wonder if the reason this wasn't announced sooner is they've been waiting for a date with the UK that's never arrived. - All right, Conor. Well, what about the opposition? It seems that everybody down there has a COVID plan. - Yeah, I mean, if you're looking, Simon, for a roadmap out of COVID because the government's plan is a little bit sparse on the details, you can pretty much take your pick now; you are spoiled for choice. We've seen plans from ACT, from National, and separately, from Sir John Key, all released in the past week. And the interesting thing about that is there's been broad consensus amongst political parties over the last year and a half around New Zealand's elimination strategy. We are finally now starting to see the cracks ` ACT's party, ACT's policy would tolerate a lot more cases. They call it one of mitigation. Essentially, it would see us opening up New Zealand by November. They say by that time, everyone in the country has had an opportunity to be vaccinated. That's when they say the vaccine rollout is done. National's plan calls for 70% to 75% vaccination before we see an end to national lockdowns, and then opening the borders comes a little bit after that. Now, the government's response to all this was to accuse National of wanting to give Kiwis COVID for Christmas. The problem with that, of course, is we have COVID now. And until the government can get that outbreak under control and give a little bit more clarity for what's next, we're going to see more of these alternative plans. - Yeah, I just wonder what's going to be going through the ministers' minds, if you can give us an indication, when they meet on Monday to consider the alert level decisions. - Yeah, well, I can tell you they have made no decisions yet, and regardless of what today's case numbers are, that will continue to be the case. They would really like to see more testing in Auckland, and I understand those numbers have been improving. But officials believe there is more work to do. Look, that number of 45 cases on Wednesday was alarming, but I'm told that number isn't what matters. What's important is the number of unlinked cases. We're still expecting about 35 more cases to be announced in the next few days. We know about those already; they are existing contacts. We have seen improvement, though, in the unlinked cases. There was only one unlinked case on Friday, and if that trend continues, that is good news. What isn't is where these cases are spreading. We've seen a number of cases in transitional and emergency housing. These are vulnerable communities with a lot of close contacts, and it means that the housing crisis and the COVID crisis are all now wrapped up into one. So Simon, if they're happy that that's controlled, we could see some kind of Alert Level 2 on Monday. It's likely to have more restrictions ` think smaller group sizes. Certainly, the border around Auckland will remain. It's going to be a tense couple of days for Auckland. We'll learn its fate on Monday afternoon. - Tena koe, Conor. Conor Whitten there in Parliament. Well, as he said, suspense around the country this week, and as we await the government's COVID alert decisions on Monday, Auckland University Professor of Epidemiology Rod Jackson is with me now to talk some of the most likely scenarios. Morena, Rod. Thanks for your time. Look, 19 cases Friday, just one unlinked. That did sound positive. What is your reckons on that? - Yeah, it was great. - Yeah, great. - It was great. It's all about the unlinked cases. The good news is if there's no unlinked cases, we can change the alert level. If there are any unlinked cases, we can't. - But there are nine over the past fortnight, isn't it? If it's that simple, there's nine from the past fortnight, so therefore we can't. Is that the logic? - Until we get them linked. Until we get them linked, yeah. Because if there's one unlinked case out there, there's infection in the community. And with Delta, one person will infect six other people, and they'll infect six other people. It's all about the unlinked cases. - OK, that's an epidemiologist viewpoint. But are you expecting the government to think the same way? - Yep. Well, whether it's an epidemiologist or a government's viewpoint, I mean, you know, my job is to count sick and dead people. The government has to count sick and dead people as well, so if you let this rip, just look across the Tasman, look at... Yeah, look at Sydney, look at Melbourne, look at the cases. The cases are going up, the deaths are going up, the hospitals are getting overcrowded. You know, sick and dead people is the same to an epidemiologist as to a government. - Can we take anything from these cases that are just turning up to, like, Waitakere Hospital and Middlemore Hospital? What do you make of those? - Yeah. Well... You know, there's a small proportion of people who get COVID who don't get any symptoms. But I think what is particularly important is most people who have COVID are actually surprised when they're told they've got it. They just, you know, assume it's not going to happen to them. That's what my colleagues in the contact tracing group tell me is that, you know, someone goes and gets a test because they're concerned they've got COVID, and then when you tell them they've got COVID, they're actually still surprised so it must be something that we block. - OK. - So, you know, the message that's coming out is if you feel unwell at all or whatever, even if you don't think you've got COVID, go get a test. - I just wonder if the government says, 'OK, let's go to 2.5,' Level 2.5 or some form, how do you think that should differ from Level 3? I mean, the PM's already said we're going to have the iron ring, the border around Auckland. Is there anything else we should be doing? - Well, what we need to do is go get vaccinated because there is only one solution to all of our problems, and that's vaccination. There is nothing else in our toolkit that's going to last for long. Look, masks are great, distancing is great, but they're all short-term stopgap measures until we get vaccinated. Every New Zealander needs to get vaccinated by Labour Day. - By Labour... Yeah, OK. But you know, so the government's saying 90% for Auckland to get Level 2 is sort of... - Not good enough. - Not 90%? - Not good enough. - 90% single jab, not good enough? - Not good enough. Not good enough. 95% minimum. - But yeah, that's just not realistic, is it? If you look at the surveys... - Of course it's realistic. - Is it? How? - It is. - Is it realistic when the surveys done by the Ministry of Health say there's, like, a good chunk there of people who are unlikely or solidly not going to be vaxxed? - OK, so in terms of realistic, is it realistic? 96% of Cook Islanders, OK? 98% of Fijian adults have already had one jab. 100% of All Blacks. I mean, I can reel off places where there are well over 95% of people who are vaccinated. OK, but how did they get there? That's the key point. Now, in most countries where they've got to those levels, the biggest, you know, the biggest pressure or the biggest factor has been they're just terrified because people are dropping dead, people are getting sick. Now, we don't have that in New Zealand, so what we need is something else. - So... OK. - So what I believe we should do... - Yep. - Yeah? - No, go now. What should we do? - OK. We need to get the g... OK, I'll tell you what we need to do. We need the government, we need National, we need ACT, we need the Maori Party to come together on one thing about how we get our vaccination rates high, and we need to introduce vaccine... Well, the vaccine passports are coming, but we need to go hard. - Yeah. - OK, no flight if you're not vaccinated. No restaurant if you're not vaccinated. We actually need to give employers the licence to say, 'You're not vaccinated, you can't come in.' - All right. So, what brought about this for an idea, and for a rationale, if you go to Level 2, will that frighten people and cause them to go get vaccinated? Will they say, 'On Level 2, more cases, more deaths, I'd better get vaccinated.'? - Well, then you'll end up like Sydney and Melbourne. No, that's ridiculous. If you go down to Level 2 with cases out in the community, we're going to end up like Sydney and Melbourne, and who wants Sydney and Melbourne? I'm just going to be counting more sick and dead people. - But, you know, Sydney is going to reopen next month. - Well, that's what they're say... Well, you know, it's brutal. I mean, how brutal do you want to go? I mean, look, we've had a dream run so far. 27 deaths, no one else has done as well as us. But there is a way to actually finish this off and have, you know, a dream finale, and that is that if we all get vaccinated, so you know, we did the best in the world with elimination, why can't we do the best in the world with vaccination? - Right, so, you want 95% of the total population or the eligible population vaccinated... - Well... - ...before we... - Well, 95... - ...before we open up? - I want 95% I want 95% of eligibles. - Right, and then only then can we do what Australia is going to do? - Well, unless you want what you see in Australia. OK? Are you happy with thousands of people in hospital, hundreds of people dead? One in three people with long COVID? I mean, just how brutal do you want to get with this? - OK. - And when there's a very simple answer ` vaccination. - Yes. - It's a complete no-brainer. - OK. And obviously, that is what is on your T-shirt right now. Now, you tell me... - Yeah, vaccination. - Vaccination, yeah, very clever. I understand there's a message on the back as well. Can we see it? - That's right. My front message is the professorial message. This is my non-professorial. - (LAUGHS) OK. All right. Well, Professor Rod Jackson, we know where you stand. Thank you very much for your time this morning. - You're very welcome. - And if you've got a news tip, please get in touch. We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Or you can email us at ` E whai ake nei, we dissect the week's political news with our panel. But first, no mana motuhake in New Zealand child protection. Why not? We asked the man who delivered the plan, Matthew Tukaki. should be split up and a separate Maori agency be established for tamariki, but instead this week the government accepted the recommendation of its ministerial advisory board that Oranga Tamariki be transformed. Chair of that advisory board, Matthew Tukaki joins me now. Tena koe, Thanks for your time, Matthew. Why not? - Morena, good to be with you. - Why not an independent by Maori for Maori agency? Why not? - Well, well, actually, I think we've gone substantially further, and in fact, what we have done is we've gone even further by addressing the root cause of what brings tamariki of all ethnicities into the care and protection system. And so I think while people are focussing on what the governance arrangements might be, and there is a huge amount of detail in the report about what we're going to be doing on that front, actually, the big story, to be frank, Simon, is we are recalibrating the system to focus on where we should have been, and that is in the world of prevention. OK. ` More than 77000 notifications come into the system every single year, and yet we deal with the pointy end when children arrive in care. When they arrive and care, largely, we begin to lose the fight, so we need to recalibrate into the world of prevention and stop children coming into the system from year to year. - Can I just ask a couple of things which your critics, or the critics of the report have pointed out. Like Lady Tureiti Moxon says that this continues master-servant relationship and doesn't give rangatiratanga back to Maori when it comes to child protection. - Yeah, my first observation on that ` no, I've spoken in detail with Lady Moxon, and I'm a big fan of Lady Moxon, all right? But we are an all-Maori board. That's the first thing, and we have spent an inordinate amount of time over the last few months, including going through report upon report upon report about Maori aspirations, and what we're doing, when you have a look at the prevention side, and I'll come back to that, when you have a look at the prevention side, we have been attempting to fit Maori, hapu, iwi organisations, in particular as squares peg into round around holes. They're in the world of prevention, and yet we're trying to bring them to this pointy end down here. So in effect, what we are doing is devolving resources, services, building capacity and capability and setting them free to be able to do what they need to do and replacing organisations based in Wellington, for example, to have whanau sit at the centre. Now, if that is not mana motuhake if that is not us going a lot further than every other report in town has ever done, then` You know, I get the criticism, but actually we are going substantially for it. - I guess the point is trust Matthew. - Yeah. - I mean, this organisation's been around in some form or another for 33 years. Back in 1988, it was recommended that, you know, social welfare` In the social welfare system, children stay with whanau. How can you rebuild trust in an organisation by transforming with within? Is it not time to do something radical and just say, let's start again? - Well, actually, I think we are doing something radical, and by the way, if you just shut something down and close it, then the question becomes, well, what do we do with the 5,400-plus children already in state care? You can't make those decisions without impacting the lives of those young people. So a couple of things. First of all, we've had report upon report going back actually more than 100 years. This is how long this has been going on in this country. We already know from the royal commission more than a quarter of a million New Zealanders abused in the last 50 years alone in state care and faith based organisations. So we arrive at this point, when a report drops to government, normally what happens is it goes to the agency, the agency responds. In this case, and I can assure everybody out there this ministerial advisory board will be remaining in place, and that's another big difference. - But do you have any teeth? - And we're not gonna be here for the long term? Yeah, absolutely we have teeth. I mean, absolutely, we have teeth and we have power. I mean, have a look at Dame Naida Glavish, for example, and Sir Mark Solomon, Shannon Pakura from the world of social work. We are talking about individuals of significant. - Yeah, that's mana, but do you have any powers to make sure` They've got mana, but do they have the power? Well, see, Simon, mana is power, and what we need to do is focus on what we can do right now, not waiting another 2 to 3, 6, 7, 8 years down the track. And this is why I'm really emboldened. I mean, we will be establishing permanent governance arrangements, so that will be akin to Maori being representative in that framework as well. - All right. - But keep in mind, we are we are not going anywhere. We will be monitoring the implementation of those recommendations. And by the way, I've never seen a minister so blunt and so bold as Kelvin Davis to say, 'You know, you know what, everybody? I'm going to be a bulldozer on this. Well, if Minister Davis is a bulldozer, I can assure you, Dame Naida Glavish is a warship and I'm coming up behind him with the submarine. - We have a firm commitment, a firm commitment to our whanau right across the system, and every New Zealander, I think, Simon, would agree, we need to do as much as we can to prevent children coming into the system. - Resources. Now look, I know you've talked about this before, but, you know, so some Maori organisations are implementing now, have plans for the future, but don't have the resources. 60 to 70% of children in care are Maori, right? So should 60 to 70% of Oranga Tamariki resources go to those organisations? - Well, I mean, you do the maths yourself, I mean, absolutely. 67% from the day we handed the report down. Absolutely, we should be investing in those organisations and supporting them to do what they need to do. You know, and it's not just Maori organisations, Simon, it's organisations who work every day in the community. But, you know, we ankle tap them and we hamstring them because we don't provide them with that financial investment and support, instead, what we do as we build centres out of Wellington to say you need to` as these square pegs to fit into these round holes. And so what we'll be doing is getting out there to talk with specifically Maori organisations and others about what it is they need, and if you have a look around the country for where some of the greatest demand is, so for example, in Auckland, our largest city, the amplification of social issues in relation to COVID-19, if you have a look in Tai Tokerau or Tairawhiti, but it's not just Oranga Tamariki that needs to carry this burden. Every other government agency ` education, health ` needs to be in the frame as well. - Well, that's right. Yeah, so you're talking about prevention. That's beyond the scope of Oranga Tamariki, as you say, poverty, structural inequalities, justice, education, housing, health. Oranga Tamariki cannot deal with those particular issues. - You know, you make a really good point. We cannot do this alone. Aotearoa, New Zealand, we cannot do this alone as an agency. We're at the pointy end of what happens when children come into the system because every other avenue apparently has been exhausted, or they've been through education, they've been through health they've been through tu mea, tu mea, tu mea. What we have to do is, as responsible adults in the system, is make sure that we join up and stop the silos that have emerged in this country over many years. And so mental health, working together with the primary health system, working with GPs and paediatricians, working with school teachers and school principals and sitting whanau firmly at the centre. And the other thing too, is we need to unleash the power of whanau You know, Simon, we've got armies of nannies and aunties and uncles and koro right across this country who do the heavy lifting every single day. Let's maximise what we have, in the spirit of volunteerism and manakitanga in this country to also` So let's throw everything we've got at this in terms of prevention if we can. - You talk about refocusing and reorienting towards prevention, but you still have to look after vulnerable children. OK? The pointy end, as you pointed out. Some babies are still going to be taken. So, you know, you didn't really address that in your plan. The government says that uplift numbers should fall. But is this risky? Are we worried that in this transition to prevention that we are going to see, say, more harm against vulnerable kids, more child murders, more deaths? - Well, the first thing is we don't want to see any harm against any children. That should be a message to every New Zealander out there. That's the first thing. The second thing is section 78s weren't in our terms of reference. However, the government and the minister has certainly addressed that, and he made it very clear, and I make it very clear as well, everything possible needs to be exhausted before a Section 78 would even be entertained or undertaken. And by the way, that means that we work with whanau, we work with communities, we work on addressing the root cause of what has happened in those whanau situations, whether it be housing issues, whether it be kai in cupboards or shoes on feet for schools nits in hair, meth addiction, mental health challenges, relationship breakdowns and all of those sorts of things. If we address the root cause of those issues, we are not going to see the need for section 78's. However, that doesn't mean to say there aren't still some significantly vulnerable children out there in the community today from a vast array of ethnic backgrounds, not just Maori. And we need to accept as a country that we need to do more in those cases to both support that child be all that they can be, as well as the whanau. So I think Kelvin Davis made it very clear. OK, just looking forward. I mean, you have oversight for the next` You've got a two year term. We've also heard that there's a restructure proposal coming out of Oranga Tamariki next week. Are you across that? Can you tell us anything about that? - Well, of course, I'll leave it to the acting chief executive to talk about the organisational restructure. But what I can say is that any organisational restructure shouldn't just be done without a purpose. The purpose is to finally let the rubber hit the road on what we need to do in order to protect our children, but also prevent the harm that's visited on them. You know, and I say this time and time again, Simon, time and time again that no matter what happens and Wellington, actually, it's what happens in our homes, our whanau right across the country and our communities. We need to start moving our vision away from being centred on Wellington and into our communities. And that's where we're going to fix some problems. So, yes, there will be an organisational restructure to support the change necessary to invest in those regions. - OK, all right. Well, thank you very much for your time, tena koe. Matthew Tukaki, who's the chair of the Ministerial Advisory Board from Oranga Tamariki. Coming up, political analysis from Tracy Watkins and Shamubel Eaqub, plus an MP shares his firsthand experience of having his home raided under anti-terrorism laws. a response to the New Lynn terror attack. But opponents of the law say minorities will be targeted, like Tuhoe was in 2007, during a series of supposed terror raids. And Green Party MP Teanau Tuiono was one of those raided. He sat down with Conor Whitten, who began by asking what happened that day. - I was there with my two young children, and I was... I was`I was afraid, to be honest. I was afraid of what they might do to me in front of my children. What they might do to me, whatever, you know. I was less afraid of that, but I was more afraid of the impact on my family, cos they're little. I think, kid number three, he was 3 weeks old. He was less than a month old. And you know, I'm sort of passing these kids along, and these guys are coming through the house, tipping over, looking through things and all this kind of stuff. And I'm just like, 'OK, I'll just relax.' Cos if I start to, sort of, demand my rights, you know, demand my rights and all this kind of stuff, they might just start going crazy. That's what I thought. - Those raids were carried out under the Terrorism Suppression Act. You're no terrorist. Why do you think you were targeted? - Uh, I think it's because of the connections that I make ` well, this is what I think. I've always tried to find a middle ground with people who have a... kind of see the world in similar ways to me. So, I'm really passionate about the environment, so I spent a lot of time with environmentalists. I've done a lot of work with indigenous communities all around the world. - So you were an activist, not a terrorist? - I'm an... Yeah, I'm I come from an activist background. - Do you think authorities know the difference now? - I-I... I want to... think that they are improving. But the evidence of my own eyes and my own ears tells me that they have not learnt the lessons that they should have learnt in 2007. To me, they didn't look like they learned them in 2019. - So fast forward to today, where this week you and the Greens voted against the new terror laws. Why? - I picked bill this up last week. So, Golriz Ghahraman usually fronts this thing. So I picked this up last week, and we were going through it. Our caucus had decided to vote against for three reasons. There had been changes made, but we feel that there was not enough change made and that it could still captured... still capture direct action and activism and that kind of thing as well. The other component is around planning. So there's a new kind of... There's a new piece in there and for me, that sounds a lot like thoughtcrime. I mean, you know, you look at some people and you think, ' Oh well. 'Some people might think that they're having a picnic, mate.' But then another person, because they might have racial prejudices against that group of people, might see them as terrorists. So what does that actually mean? I think that part definitely needs to be scrutinised a lot more. And then the third piece was, actually, this was about foreign fighters and being able to deal with them. And now all of a sudden, it's about people in New Zealand. - So, the government says that there are protections against those things you're concerned about. So can you paint us a picture? What are you worried about happening here? Who are you worried might be targeted and how? - Probably the... What I would say to that is we have heard these stories before. You know, we heard these stories before in 2002 when the Terrorism Suppression got passed. You know, the Twin Towers went down. Next thing you know, the US War on Terror was our war on terror, and we were told that these things would not be used on us; turns out they were wrong. What changed between then and now? You know, you can say whatever you like, but the... - Some things have changed, though. The world is a different place. New Zealand has a different place... - Yeah. - ... from 2002 or even 2007. Christchurch and New Lynn have sadly proved that, so... - Yeah, that's true. - ...why vote against strengthening terror laws? - The vote was to actually... Look, we need to actually look at these things a lot more carefully. You could have dealt with these things in a lot more different ways, and I did not... We do not have the confidence that this process was scrutinised enough ` it wasn't. - If there's any possibility, though, that this could prevent an attack, don't politicians have to act now? - I think politicians do have to act now, but why, particularly with piece of legislation, and as I was saying earlier, they're rushing this thing through. If there is something that they know, you know, that there's an attack that is imminent in the next couple of weeks, how about signalling that to us so that we know, 'Actually, well, this is what you're doing. Why are you rushing it through?' - Do you believe this law would have prevented what happened in New Lynn last month? - I think it would... I think it could have prevented what happened in New Lynn. But it came out in the context of what happened in Christchurch, so maybe it would. But then, actually, the stuff that happened in Christchurch, I don't think... I'm not sure, and I needed to be able to scrutinise everybody, including the GCSB and the SIS to make sure that it will pick up that guy as well. - So the scrutiny, should that have happened sooner? - That... - Should we have been through this process already? We were rushing it through now... - Yep, yep. - ...in the wake of an attack. - Yep. - Should it have happened before that? - Look, the whole scrutinising of the entire thing has come out of the Royal Commission report. It should have been, it's better to be done sooner than later. So we did pass a law earlier on saying that the GCSB and the SIS are going to front up, and we're going to deal with them quicker. But then, on the other hand, this thing has rushed through. So as I was saying, if there is imminent things and they're super urgent, well then, let us know, and then let's talk about it. But then there's the other piece as well, because we know that this guy was... You know, he was quite damaged. There's the other piece around, well, what other supports can be put in place to actually wrap around those communities to help to de-radicalise a lot of these men, a lot of these young men, the same with the guy down in Christchurch. It's the same with this guy as well. A lot of people start to go down these rabbit holes. We've got to figure a way to pull them out, and that requires a whole lot of other things as well. - So, this is law now. It's passed despite opposition from the Maori Party, from ACT and from yourselves. What happens now. Will you fight to amend it? - Um... What I think we should do is, actually, when the SIS and the GCSB get here, let's have a good... let's scrutinise actually what happened and what didn't happen and what should have happened, and look at it in the context of that. And if it needs an amendment, then we should put the amendment forward because, I mean, I don't know. My assumption, and I could be wrong, is that they were just allocating their resources wrong. All right, so they... Instead of trying to find white supremacists, they were spending all their time and their resources chasing poor brown people. - The Minister said this week they've had a wake-up call since then. Do you believe it? - I... I believe that he believes that, you know, and when these people come to the select committees, and they say all these nice things, including the police commissioner, he comes in, and it's all hunky-dory, and it's good and, you know, that's great. But actually, I have to believe the evidence of my own eyes and my own ears, and the voices that I'm hearing because what they say is not my experience. - Finally, Teanau, your children are a little bit older now. - Yeah. - Terror laws have changed. How much do you worry about them going through what you went through? - Yeah, I do worry about it a lot. I do worry about particularly some of... Just in general, not just sort of the terrorism thing, but the impacts on our rangatahi, on our youth as well. I've got some nephews. They're quite big, you know, Polynesian guys. And so everybody thinks, 'Oh, he's like a man.' Well, he's not a man. I know he's a kid as well. And so you have all these embedded prejudices against our people as well, so like, the real work here is that systemic change. What I mean by that is regardless of how good the people are, because the system was developed in the way that it is, it will always have a racist outcome. And so you need to unpack that to make sure that that doesn't happen. And I think the smart policy is about actually anticipating that that is going to happen. You know that if you are going to do this particular thing that it might target a vulnerable community, so you organise yourselves appropriately, so you can get things done, but also that it doesn't marginalise already vulnerable communities. - Green MP Teanau Tuiono, kia ora. Thanks very much for your time. - Kia ora. Thank you. - All right, now it's time for reckons of the week, otherwise known as pithy intelligent analysis. I'm sure that's what they'd like it described as. I'm joined by our panel Stuff Sunday's editor Tracy Watkins and economist at Sense Partners Shamubeel Eaqub. Tena korua to you both. Let's start with you, Tracy. We've had three different plans for re-opening the country this week, National, Sir John Key and ACT. Is this creating a sense of urgency or pressure on the government? - Look, I think we can see by the way the government was reacting that it certainly is feeling that pressure. The one that landed with the most impact, I guess, was John Key, and I suppose if he ever wanted to deliver a message to National that it's not meant National that's the problem, it's the leadership. It's that. He got huge traction with his suggestions for how to open up the country, how to lift the vaccination rate, and the government's response really was, sort of, like a bit of a scramble. Just sort of, you know, 'We're doing everything you said, but everything you said is an insult.' So yeah, it's interesting. Yeah. - So, just pick you up on that, so you're saying that the National base is there, but the support for Judith is not, judged on that kind of reaction to a John Key's suggestions. - Well... I think it's the same thing we saw when Jacinda Ardern took over Labour. Clearly, brand National is still strong, and we saw that with the reaction to John Key's... to his sort of, like, Sunday op-ed, if you like. The same thing happened ` brand Labour was there as soon as Jacinda got the leadership, so it's the same issue. I think what it shows is there is definitely traction out there, people are listening. The phone is on the hook for alternatives, but they're not listening to the National leadership, Judith Collins, at the moment, and I think that, that really highlighted. - All right. Shamubeel Eaqub, I mean, you know, if we haven't had a crystal-clear plan for the next stages from the government beyond 'Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate,' we're hearing that there could be a COVID response revamp next week, what would you like to see coming up? - Yeah, look, I mean, we had a bit of that outline of a plan in August. But really, you know, despite all this talk of certainty and a plan, what we've seen around the world is there is no fixed plan because you have to respond to what's going on. The priority must be vaccination because without vaccination, our health system will be completely overwhelmed. The second thing is we really need to have an alternative plan to sending people to the hospital. In Singapore, for example, they have things like community care and those kinds of things; you need an alternative, so that we don't overwhelm our ICUs and our hospital system. And the main thing that people aren't talking about is the reality that if we have Delta in the community, and if we want to have opening up, it will mean more restrictions in the domestic economy than we've had in Level 1. There is no going back to 2019. There is no going back to Level 1. t is going to be a world that will be very different for the next 12 months. - But just on that, I mean, in the past, we've been told that the health response is the best economic response, Shamubeel. But is that... Surely, that's got to start changing now? Is that right? So we have to put aside the health response for the economic response? - No, I don't think so. I mean, if you look at what's happening in places like Singapore, for example, which has kind of had the 10 weeks of experimenting with opening up, their initial opening-up just led to this massive spike in cases, so they've restricted again. And the reason for that is when there is virus running rampant through the economy, people are afraid. They're afraid of catching the virus, they're afraid of dying, they're afraid of infecting other people. And that has a really big impact on the economy itself. So, you know, when we've had these plans in the last week or so, I think the least transparent part was the quantification of what impact it will have on the economy, but more importantly, how many people will die and how many people will get long COVID. - So, we're just talking about fear there, Tracy. So, we've had the government use the modelling from Shaun Hendy and those scary numbers. Now we're talking about whether we should be moving to Level 2 in some form in Auckland. Will that give... Are they banking on that to sort of give an impetus to get people vaccinated? Is fear a driving force there? - Well, it has to be. I think, you know, there's been a lot of controversy around those Shaun Hendy numbers, and if you haven't seen it, there's a great explainer on Stuff this morning by Keith Lynch talking to some overseas experts. It seems like, like everything else with COVID, nothing is sure about these numbers. Fear is the motivating factor, but I wonder if it's working with that final 20%, if you like, that we just can't seem to nudge into getting vaccinated, and I suspect these are people who are not really plugged into the new system, not plugged into the, you know, the support networks and the general infrastructure around that vaccination programme, who are just sort of not getting those messages. And I think it's going to have to be more than fear; it is actually going to have to be a really focussed, concentrated programme to try and get into those areas, like, for instance, the boarding house. That's where, you know, you see one today saying, 'We haven't seen anyone come to us. 'I've got 45 people here. We haven't seen anyone come to us and talk to us about vaccination.' So it's really going to have to be reaching down to those levels now. - There has been a bit of a collision this week with, you know, you're talking about there, Tracy, the boarding houses, we're talking about transitional housing. But Shamubeel, so we've got the housing crisis, and the overcrowding as a result of that, mixing with the COVID crisis. So we've got a bit of a perfect storm going on. - Yeah, this was always the biggest fear, right? We've known for many decades that the biggest health problems are hidden within our inequalities and inequities in housing, too. So amongst those overcrowded homes, those damp homes, those horrible homes, that is where we have the highest rates of measles, that's where we have the highest rates of rheumatic fever. And these are the people that were most at risk when COVID comes. But it's not just that, right? If we think about projecting forward, what will happen if we open up? Is... Our health system will become overwhelmed because many people will still be unvaccinated, and many people will still get sick, and the unvaccinated will also not get access to care. So when people are out there saying, 'Oh, we should just open up, 'and the health system will just cope.' I don't think they're telling an honest story, that what it means is that all those majority of vaccinated people are also going to be out of luck. But the housing thing is just extraordinarily frightening because we know that there is a major, major, I guess, indicator and issue that we're going to find, the overcrowding, and many of those people working in the kinds of jobs that are exposed more to public interactions, to the border, where they're more likely to be experiencing, I guess, infection. - And just finally, we're talking about, you know, Auckland coming potentially back to Level 2 or Level 2.5 on Monday. What are you expecting, Tracy? You're in Martinborough. Would the rest of the country like to see Auckland stay ring-fenced, or would you like to see Auckland opened up? - Yeah, I feel like I'm a very long way from Auckland. I think, um, the difficulty is just those case... I think that 45, that number 45, just scared everyone, probably Aucklanders does as well earlier last week. So... Yeah, I think there will certainly be a feeling in the South Island that they would've welcomed Jacinda Ardern's comment about keeping a hard border around Auckland. But realistically, I mean, the issue will be compliance as well. Once you've got 80% of the population, sort of, either single- or double-dose vaccinated, it's going to be very difficult to get people to continue to sort of carry on a full lockdown. They'll feel like... Yeah. - Well, we're going to leave it there Thank you very much for Tracy Watkins and Shamubeel Eaqub for your time. E whai ake nei ` Should stealthing ` that's secretly removing a condom ` be explicit in the law as a form of rape? Plus ` the booming industry that could head offshore if the government doesn't step up. but the law is just catching up. we had our first and only conviction this year. Now there are calls to have 'stealthing' thing which is secretly removing or breaking a condom explicitly recognised as a form of rape. Anna Bracewell-Worrall reports. It's a simple fact that you cannot deceive someone into consensual sex. That's rape, but that is what's happening to a number of people. - We think it's going on fairly widely, and it has for a very long time. - The New Zealand Prostitutes Collective is fielding increased reports of a practise known as stealthing, when someone secretly removes or breaks a condom during sex without their partner's consent. - It's non-consensual and it's deliberate, and it's really disempowering. People feel violated. They feel assaulted. - It's not just happening to sex workers. Sexual support network Help is hearing reports of condom sabotage during casual encounters and inside relationships. - You're in effect saying to somebody that what they want doesn't matter, that their body doesn't matter, that their will doesn't matter, so you are making them into nothing. - The highest profile accusation of stealth was levelled against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. - He's also accused of sexually molesting her by having sex with her without a condom, despite her express wish, one should be used. - It's one of the sexual assault allegations eventually dropped by Sweden while he was holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. A US study found 12% of women had experienced stealthing and 10% of men admitted to doing it. An Australian survey of people who used a sexual health service was even more alarming. One in three women and one in five men who have sex with men said they had been stealthed. Just 1% reported it. - Rates are low for reporting and you know, they're very low for sexual assault in general. But I think there can be added confusion or lack of a sense that this would be taken seriously, because we don't talk about it widely. - Police say they do take reports of condom sabotage seriously. - Police will investigate it. If the complaints received, you could be charged and you could be convicted of sexual violation, and sexual violation covers a penalty of 20 years imprisonment. - But despite its apparent prevalence, New Zealand has only just had its first successful prosecution for stealthing. A man was convicted of rape this year for removing a condom while having sex with a sex worker. It was a landmark case for New Zealand. - Well, this is a really powerful message, and a powerful signal to sex workers everywhere that they will be treated fairly and without stigma and discrimination by the justice system. - Because the woman was a sex worker, there was a clear and legal obligation for the client to wear a condom It was easy to prove to the jury that consent was contingent on condom use. Without a change to the law the same guilty verdict might not be applied where victims aren't sex workers. - It is going to be more difficult, and I do think that other people are less likely to have their cases taken to trial. - California is leading the way. It's about to legislate against stealthing as a form of sexual battery, making it illegal to remove a condom during sex without verbal consent. All the advocates Newshub Nation spoke to want to see law reform here too. - It would be really useful to specify explicitly that you can't` you don't consent to sexual activity when it's been misrepresented whether prophylactic or a condom is being used. - We might consider making changes to the law to make it clearer to juries that they can convict in these kinds of cases. - The legislation, as it stands, isn't enough for any of us and for any sexual assault, to be honest. To be honest, the law really needs attention. It needs significant attention as soon as possible. - And they say education is key. I think we have opportunities here for teaching young people in particular about` that condom sabotage is not a joke. It's, you know, it's really serious for health and for criminal reasons. - Justice Minister Kris Faafoi said it's too early to say whether the law will be reformed. Any change will require both public pressure and political will. That will only happen as awareness of this emotionally and physically damaging practise increases. Anna Bracewell-Worrall reporting there. Stay with us. We're back after the break. a global industry worth a massive $250 billion. Our home-grown sector is on track to hit a billion dollars by 2025, and our games are winning top international prizes. But could a lack of government support and a tantalising tax rebate across the Tasman stop that growth in its tracks? Finn Hogan has more. As the economy reels from delta disruption, one industry rises. - Last year, games accounted for more than a third of New Zealand software exports. We could be a billion dollar industry by 2025. - The video game sector is a global juggernaut. One of the few not challenged, but supercharged by the ongoing pandemic. - There are about 50 game studios in New Zealand, and around 750 people are full time employed. The industry grows about 40% every year, and so far this year we've added about 100 new jobs. I mean, the sky's really the limit. - If we look overseas, we can see our potential future, with a similar population and GDP to New Zealand. Finland's gaming sector is worth $4 billion. - Finland has made significant investments in their game industry for decades, and so because of that, they have grown significantly. - Investments, which Rapp says, are nowhere to be seen in New Zealand. - A good place to start for our industry is to, you know, have some kind of incentive programmes similar to what Australia has just announced. From next year, Australia will give game companies up to a 40% tax rebate. It could be a big challenge for New Zealand to compete with that because if you're a foreign investor, if you're a game studio, you know being able to get 40 cents back on every dollar you spend, you'd be silly to not take advantage of that. - A tempting offer which could result in an all too familiar trans-Tasman story. - What we're going to see is a brain drain of all our talent heading offshore, because why wouldn't you? The other thing they've done is they've created a task force and that's really focussed on the sector to make sure that they can get the visas through. They can look at relocation of key employees and retention. That's a fantastic initiative. So you look, they've ticked all the boxes. Their studios are buoyant and growing. And for us here in little old New Zealand, sadly, we have none of that. - Some of the talent we hope to keep is here at Rocket Werkz's Auckland Studio, where New Zealand's biggest video game is in development. - I think we're a fraction of what we could be. The video game industry has largely pottered along with, you know, little successes here and there, and I think that can become evidence of, well, the video game industry doesn't need help. - One industry getting plenty of help is film, which receives over $100 million in government subsidies a year. - And it's not really about giving the video game industry stuff. It's about levelling the playing field between Hollywood and the situation in Australia. And I think if we don't have that level playing field, it's incredibly hard for us to compete. - And while Amazon's Lord of the Rings is now departing New Zealand after one season, Hall argues the next Middle Earth could be virtual and the next J.R.R. Tolkien, a New Zealander. - This is our chance to write what that is. And studios that are really good creatively are able to own that ID and own net in the country, and that means that it's ours and that we tax it and that it belongs to us. - But the benefits are not only material. - Games are precisely the type of industry that the government wants to support. You know, our products don't have to be dug out of the ground, you know, they are wholly sustainable. - However, despite its successes, the games industry still battle stereotypes. - A lot of people typically think of this very antiquated view of somebody who's playing games you know, is the guy in his basement, in the dark. But that's just so antiquated. You know, the average game player these days is around 35-years-old, almost half of them are women. - And Kiwi games are now generating not just money, but mana. - Umurangi Generation, the tikanga infused game, set in a futuristic Tauranga recently took top prize at the Independent Games Festival, one of gaming's most prestigious artistic awards. And other countries are taking notice. In the past half decade, international companies have spent over half a billion dollars buying up Kiwi game businesses. Grinding Gear Games in Henderson sold to China for over $100 million. Kiwi games sold to Sweden for $200 million. And just this week, Wellington Studio A44 was part of another $120 million deal with Kepler Interactive. In 2018, Newshub Nation asked then`Digital Economy Minister Clare Curran if more support would be incoming. - Gaming has fallen between the cracks. - Now in 2021, her successor, David Clarke, says he's still working on a digital transformation plan But for the industry he hopes to transform, change can't come fast enough. - We've got a small window of opportunity here when we can create a tremendous economic base that will last for generations. - They need to act now and they need to act quickly. - Let's break, our reliance on dairy and stuff like that and become a creative factory. - We've got the talent and we have the creative ideas. We know that we can do this. - A sector ready to reach the stars, just waiting for lift off. Finn Hogan reporting there. I'm joined again by our panel, Stuff Sunday's editor Tracy Watkins and economist at Sense Partners Shamubeel Eaqub. Thanks for your time. Tracy, first to you. The news that Australia is opening up a month early, does that increase the pressure on our government when it comes to COVID? - Well, it's interesting. I think what we have seen from our government is they are followers, not leaders. So I think they will be prepared to wait just a little bit to see how it goes with Australia. The big thing about Australia, of course, is they're introducing... they have a whole lot of other complementary policies, if you like, around rapid testing, home isolation and all those things, that we're just not in a position to roll out, or don't seem to be in any hurry to roll out at the moment. So I think, you know, I think they will be happy to wait a little bit, but there is going to be huge building pressure, particularly over that trans-Tasman bubble, I think. - Yeah. In terms of being followers, not leaders, Shamubeel, where are we with rapid antigen testing, cos I think Australia is actually in the process of approving that. - Yeah. And I think we need to do this because what we've seen in many countries, including in Singapore, is that that's a really good public health response. And having that rapid antigen testing out in the community means that you provide an additional layer. We've been quite slow in its uptake, and I think it's really important that we fast-track that, and we get that into the community in front of businesses and in front of our health system. - So just to educate myself, rapid antigen testing means that you can have a result almost straight away, and it's very accurate? - It's pretty accurate. So it tends to be more accurate for those with heavy viral loads, but it's one of those things that you wouldn't use it for clinical purposes, but it's very good for screening purposes, and particularly to protect your community, your family. If you feel sick, you can get a test, you can get a result straight away, and you can isolate if you need to. It just speeds the process up quite significantly. - All right, look, we've also had a very busy week. COVID aside, the government's done all sorts of things this week with immigration and terror laws. One of those was that releasing and adopting the recommendations of the Oranga Tamariki report. Children's Minister Kelvin Davis, Tracy, says he's going to be a bulldozer, but how can he build trust in an organisation that's been so scrutinised and so, sort of, condemned over the last 30 odd years? - It's going to be incredibly difficult because I've seen, I think we've all seen, numerous reports, numerous enquiries, and nothing has ever changed. There's a terrible case that's on Stuff this morning about a wee girl, who was placed with her grandfather, who had previously been charged with child abuse. So, I mean, those are the sort of issues you're dealing with. How do you... I mean, how can you bulldoze through those issues? I guess, that's the problem. It's so complicated and so complex, and at the heart of it is very vulnerable children. I would be surprised if this can be fixed in the next, you know... in bulldozer-like fashion. - Mm, OK. I mean, it has been around... problematic for so long. They are trying to go to a prevention model, Shamubeel. Is that where they should be looking, rather than an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff? - Well, with public policy, it's always both. I mean, we already have this crisis, so we must have Oranga Tamariki that is functional and that is safe. But of course, we need to also talk about inequity and poverty. And more often than not, it is poverty that's the big... (SPEECH DISTORTS) And we've had numerous reports around welfare reforms and all those kinds of things. I think everybody is a bit sick of reform reports; we actually want proper reforms. And poverty is probably the big issue, as we have seen with housing, as we're seeing with child abuse, and all these other bits and pieces. - Yeah, reform upon reform, not only for OT, but there's been a whole lot of reform proposed by this government over two terms now. Right now, Tracy, is the government trying to do too much because we're not because we are in a pandemic? - Yeah. I think they are. I mean, if you look at the areas where they're trying to speed ahead with reforms in tertiary and workplace relations and the health system. I mean... And meanwhile, they're coming under immense pressure over a whole lot of things they haven't rolled out yet in terms of COVID and how we've been caught. You know, our ICU system, we've had 18 months. I think that's well rehearsed now; 18 months to try and get these up to speed for the likelihood that COVID is here with us to stay, and they're no better off than they were 18 months ago when COVID first arrived, and I think at this stage it really is bread-and-butter stuff that they need to focus on. The long-term agenda can just be put on hold for now. People really need some certainty at the moment. - Mm. Businesses want certainty. They also seem to want to have a bit of reassurance that while the borders are closed and other countries are trying to attract talent that the government's going to help them out. Gaming, as we saw just there, Shamubeel, they want the government to max a 40% Aussie tax rebate. Do they hey have a case? - Look, tax incentives don't buy your loyalty. So if you want to do that kind of stuff, like we have done with film, what's really important as a lesson is make sure you put a cap on it. You don't want to just keep giving handouts to people who are not going to stick around. The reality is that tax incentives are only one very small part of a much larger decision that businesses make. I think it's too easy for businesses to be very glib about these kinds of things. - Right, and also, I mean, we want to broaden our economy, divert away from just commodities. Is this a golden opportunity, Tracy, just quickly, for us to be able to do this? - Um, I think the golden opportunity at the moment to try and get through the next 12 months, isn't it? I mean, yeah, I think one of the issues, though is we saw a story recent` this week, about the gaming industry, just the cost of housing in Wellington is driving people overseas. It's just dealing with those issues, I think, as Shamubeel says, rather than just tax incentives alone. - And we'll leave it there for a moment. Thank you so much to Tracy Watkins and Shamubeel Eaqub for your time. And thank you to you for watching. That is all from us for now. Kia pai to ra, have a great weekend, and we will see you again next weekend. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2021 This programme was made with the assistance of the New Zealand on Air Platinum Fund.