I'm Oriini Kaipara. - And I'm Simon Shepherd. Nau mai, and welcome to Newshub Nation. On the programme today ` with tensions running high between superpowers the US and China, we cross live to Beijing. - Has New Zealand dropped the ball in the Pacific? Winston Peters delivers his critique. - David Seymour stops in on his way to launch ACT's by-election campaign in Tauranga. - And National's Mark Mitchell gets five minutes to convince you he'd make a better police minister than Labour's Poto Williams. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - Kia ora, everyone. First up ` the US, where Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is on the fourth day of her tour. - She's pivoted from exports to gun control to big tech to asking for help on climate change. - Early this morning signing a Memorandum of Cooperation on climate with California Governor Gavin Newsom, including hints California could supply EVs to Aotearoa New Zealand. Kia tahau ri ake tatou. Let's take a look. - We want to make sure that it's not just government; it's business, it's private sector, and we are driving the same direction together. But we need help. As a nation of five million, we won't have all of the solutions ourselves. We're trying to be leaders in the space of agriculture, food production, because that is our biggest part of our emissions profile. Making food for the world is costing our environment, but we believe we can be and will be and are the most sustainable food producers in the world and we're destined to prove it. But we need help on transport. We have set ourselves some very clear goals. Last week, we released our Emissions Reduction Plan. We're putting $2.9 billion ` and for a country of five million, that's not to be sniffed at, Governor. - (LAUGHTER) - $2.9 billion from our emissions trading scheme is being recycled into mitigations and adaptation work. And part of that, though, is our goal to make sure that we have, by 2035, 30% of our vehicles being EVs. But we need to source them. So we had a long conversation today about the kind of partnerships that we could form to try and overcome some of those supply issues that we have in New Zealand. And we also anticipate sharing notes on, for instance, the Cash for Clunkers policy that is already in operation here in this area, which we have just announced as part of our budget. So... it goes, Governor, without saying we have for many years had much in common. We have shared values; we have shared challenges but have shared optimism on what we can achieve together. And given that already, uh, as a whole, of all the visitors we have from the United States, 25% come from here... Uh, this is an area where people make good life choices. - (LAUGHTER) - CHUCKLES: Um... We have a natural connection, and I'm so pleased we've put pen to paper today to confirm that and continue our cooperation on one of the great challenges of our generation. - The Prime Minister there. And she's en route to Seattle now to meet with big technology companies, with, of course, a meeting with the US president at the White House to follow on Tuesday. - If you've got a news tip, get in touch with us ` we're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram; or email us at nation@tv3.co.nz. E haere tonu nei ` still to come ` we cross live to ITV's Asia Correspondent Debi Edward in Beijing. Then former Foreign Minister Winston Peters on whether or not we've dropped the ball on China in the Pacific. Tensions are running high in the Pacific, with China making a power play. Well, someone who's worked closely with China over many years is former Foreign Minister Winston Peters, and he joins us now. Morena, and thanks for joining us this morning, Mr Peters. So with tensions rising so fast, do you believe that this could have been avoided? - I most certainly do, and that's just not a statement now; it was what we believed a long time ago ` in fact, 15 years ago and then again in 2017, when we prepared the Pacific Reset policy, beefed up our aid hugely and beefed up our diplomacy. But we had to keep the impetus going with our allies as well. I'm afraid we seem to have dropped the ball. - So in 2018, as you mentioned, as foreign minister, you committed about 700 million to our relationship with the Pacific. Why didn't it work? - Well, the reality was it didn't keep going with that pace. And the other thing is that you had Australia, as it turns out, a foreign minister trying to get extra money for their aid programme, and sadly, Marise Payne, with all her great endeavours, didn't get that. Now, Penny Wong, the new foreign minister, is in Fiji, announcing, as we speak, 500 million more Australian money for aid into the Pacific over the next four years. But that was a drive we had to all keep going ` the United States, ourselves, Australia, Japan ` dare I say it? ` the UK and others. - So Australia is in there, on the ground, right now. What should we be doing? - Well, again, as Kurt Campbell is saying, and again, he's admitting it, that they slipped up. They were warned by us, 'Look, you need to pay far more attention.' We need to put greater effort into it, because we've reached a particular inflexion where the Pacific people believe they've got options. The sad thing about some of these options is they don't include the freedom, democracy and rule of law and respect for the Pacific that we do and Australians do in our approach to the Pacific people, and that's what the great problem is. And as Peter Kenilorea, the Solomons Foreign Minister` sorry, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the chair, said the other day, there are serious concerns arising here, and not just here, but elsewhere in the Pacific as we look forward. - Mr Peters, you really believe that Pacific nations would be wooed by China into a security and trade agreement, or would they be put off by the idea of another economic coloniser? - Well, the problem is they're being offered cheap money, and the difficulty with cheap money is that there's always a time when you have to pay the bill. And when that comes, what's the price of not being able to pay it? And we are out there ` Australia is the biggest donor by miles; the rest of us are putting a lot of money in there. But along comes another party who offer them cheap loans with no criteria of the type which we'd seek to apply, and the consequence is very, very ` dare I say it? ` alluring to the Pacific people. - Are you saying that the plan, the Pacific Reset that you implemented in that $700 million ` I mean, you just said before it needed to carry on ` do you think, could you guarantee, that this would not have come to pass if you had been in office? - No one can guarantee that. But what I could guarantee to you that we would have never left off telling our allies they need to get here right now, step up right here, right now. And I think it was avoidable. - But these are sovereign nations. They have the right to decide their own path. And we also have the Pacific Islands Forum where these things are raised and debated and negotiated. Should we just be leaving it to them? - But that's the real point. 22 years ago, in Clause` Article Six of the Biketawa Declaration is an agreement of 18 forum countries to do just that. So what on earth is a security arrangement that China says the Solomon Islands people need? And you don't talk about one square mile when you're talking about downtown Honiara. You see what I mean? There's something untoward going on here, and we needed to be far more aware of it and far more on to it. - OK, so how would you rate Nanaia Mahuta performance so far as Foreign Minister? - Well, look, you cannot have circumstances where no one's been there since 2019. No one has been anywhere in the Pacific from the point of view of political leadership in New Zealand. We have simply been preoccupied with anything but our` not backyard; that's an insult to these people. It's our home. The Pacific is our home and our security and our social way of life. The whole economy is dependent upon the home in which we live. So all I've seen, it's sad to say` - There has been a lot going on, hasn't there? There has been a lot going on. There has been a pandemic. - Well, look, that's an excuse, if you'd like to say that, but others have not stopped. They've kept on doing the distance and going the yards. And so to put it down to a pandemic, because we're living in a self-described hermit kingdom, is not a good enough answer, not when the Pacific and our security is on the line here. - Why do you think that this government and Nanaia Mahuta has not been on the ground in the Pacific? What's your take? - Because they haven't. - I know they haven't. Why not? - Because they haven't. The impetus and the drive and the speed` Well, you have to ask them. Which begs the question ` why aren't they on this programme, describing what's gone wrong here? - The other` The other` So, your prediction then ` I mean, if these countries do sign some sort of agreement with China, what does that mean? What are the stakes here? - Well, if you look at the full canvas of this proposed agreement, it's about their resources, about the mining and all sorts of other things and fishing. These are critical things for the long-term wealth of the Pacific and their proper development. And if you look at how comprehensive or how expansive this is, we have to all be alarmed, particularly the Pacific people themselves. - Are you saying that China would just be quite predatory in terms of resources and those kinds of things, like fishing and mining and seabed resources? Is that what you're indicating? - Look, it's time for us to be realists. We live in a resource-hungry world, and there's a massive battle for resources, even if some people in New Zealand don't want them. And that's what this is about. - OK, look, before you go, I have to ask you, Winston Peters, you may like the` don't want to answer it, but why did you choose not to stand in Tauranga? Is it because Te Pati Maori said it's a racist city? - Well, that's humbug, because for 35 of the last 38 years, they've had two Maori` two people with Maori background as representatives, so that debunks the kind of codswallop that Te Pati Maori ` or Te 'Pity' Maori, I might say ` have been guilty of. And the second thing is, I didn't stand because, when Mr Bridges stood at the 2020 election, he promised the people of Tauranga a contract of three years, and he's walked out on it. And how many commentators and politicians have said this is a waste of $1 million? And we can't afford, in our present economic circumstances, to be wasting money willy-nilly like the government is, and now the opposition apparently agrees with. - Yeah, but you didn't stand because Simon Bridges reneged on that so-called contract? I don't see the logic there. - Well, there was no need for a by-election. Somebody needed to say so. If there's somebody that has to be moved because of a crime or some offence or something like that or needs a mandate because of other circumstances, then a by-election is justified. But there was no democratic reason for this by-election. - OK. So` - And I think, if you're going to talk about the public money, and $1 million matters now, then he needs to explain that, and so does National. - OK. Well, that's up to them. Winston Peters, thank you very much for your time on the show this morning. Tena koe. - Thank you. - Staying on China, tension not just in the Pacific but also between the world's two superpowers after President Joe Biden abandoned decades of US policy by confirming he'll intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan. Joining us now to talk about that is ITV's Asia Correspondent Debi Edward, live from Beijing. Debi, tena koe. Thank you for joining us. When President Biden said the US would come to Taiwan's defence, how did China react to that? - Well, I think this is the third time that President Biden has made what has been described previously as a gaffe, but when you have said it three times, it does start to look a bit consistent and look like the US does have a new foreign policy. Of course, his comments were immediately walked back by his White House advisers, but they were already out there and, of course, now been taken as read by China, who have described the US as a bully with a Cold War mentality. Relations between the US and China are already at their lowest ebb in 40 years ` the Biden administration very much picking up from Trump, with their more hawkish approach to China, and, in fact, President Biden describing China as his biggest strategic challenge, his biggest foreign policy challenge. So all of that language between the two nations, a relationship that's described as the most consequential of the 21st century, does really have an impact on global relations. And China has already started to talk about US intentions in the region, in the Asia region. Of course, we saw President Biden here in Asia, and he didn't come here to Beijing, come here to China. The first time that a US president in 20 years hasn't come to China as part of their Asia tour. President Trump came here first, put China at the centrepiece of his Asia tour. But President Biden chose not to come, and that is only just fermenting poor relations between the two nations. And China now talking about the fact that the US is trying to ferment these allies in the region and talking about an Asia NATO. And, of course, we know that it was the expansion of NATO that prompted Russia to invade Ukraine. We don't know what China's tipping point is on Taiwan, but President Biden is treading a very fine line between deterrence and provocation. - Mm. Debi, let's talk about the Chinese economic forecast, which is very grim at the moment and the first time in decades. Can China afford a confrontation with the West? - It can't. I think we are at this inflexion point where China is weighing up its relations with the West and how much it can afford to cut those off. For the first time, we're talking about a potential contraction in the Chinese economy. The forecasts are very grim. At Davos this week, at the World Economic Forum, there were warnings that the supply-chain difficulties that we're seeing prompted by this zero-COVID policy, about all these lockdowns in Shanghai that we're seeing at the moment, could cause global inflation to skyrocket and could prompt a global depression. Of course, China is intrinsically linked. It's closely connected to the whole global economy. But, of course, from China, it would say that the US wouldn't go as far as decoupling. The West wouldn't go as far as decoupling from the Chinese economy, because they'd only be shooting themselves in the foot. - Mm. Let's talk about the zero-COVID strategy that China has adopted and has implemented at an enormous cost, and now cases are picking up in Beijing. Could the capital lockdown, Debi? - We hope not. Every day, it seems like the walls are closing in, but it is doing everything it can to avoid those scenes we have seen in Shanghai, where they're entering almost their third month of lockdown. - Tell us about that. Why are they avoiding that lockdown? - Because it is the capital. It is the seat of government. And this has been the most protected city since the beginning of this outbreak, and they're doing everything they can do to save face and not have this major lockdown in the city. But that's not to say that we're not almost in lockdown here ` we're working from home; the restaurants are closed; even to go along a walk on the river behind me, you have to scan a health code and show a COVID test result within 48 hours. But, at the moment, the numbers do seem to be coming down here. But this government is insisting on sticking to this method, which has been successful for the past two years, since that initial outbreak in Wuhan. They've dealt with every flare up with these lockdowns, with mass testing. But as these more transmissible variants, the Omicron variant, has appeared, it just doesn't seem to be working any more. They are losing control of these outbreaks quite quickly. And now, as we just talked about, it's having a hugely detrimental impact on the economy. But the problem that they have is that they have stuck to it for these past two years. They've tied it, almost, to their political agenda. The President himself has doubled down on it as a success story of an authoritarian political system. So there's no going back on the system. And, in fact, in recent days, here in Beijing, we've started to see the mobile popping up` the mobile test sites at the entrances to subway stations. So it looks like this policy is very much here to stay. - Debi, further information leaked this week from Xinjiang about treatment of the Uyghurs in detention camps. It's been a big story internationally. But what` what about inside China? What's it like there? - Well, of course, it is very difficult to talk about this as a subject. They have been increasingly holding these press conferences for us to try and tell us the truth, as they call it, about Xinjiang, which they say is a happy and harmonious province in China. They say we are open to travel there and see for ourselves. But when we have gone there, we have found it very difficult to get people to talk to us. We have been trailed by local officials, by local police, who have told us that we are not allowed to go into certain places, and they make it extremely difficult. At the moment, we do have the UN High Commissioner in the country. Finally, the UN has been allowed into the country to see for themselves what is going on, but that is a hugely chaperoned visit. She also will not be allowed to independently talk to anyone that she sees fit, and anyone that does talk to her will have been briefed beforehand and will be debriefed afterwards to make sure that they didn't divert from a script. But those files that you talking about did come out on the eve of her arrival here in China, and, of course, she will have been able to present those to the Chinese authorities and question them directly. So although this visit is going to be very stage-managed ` it is going to be a bit of theatre ` she will be able to be here on the ground and look in the eyes of the Chinese officials and ask them the questions that need to be asked about Xinjiang, about the persecution of the Uyghur people. - Appreciate that insight and your time, Debi. Debi Edward, live there from Beijing. So what does our panel make of all that? Georgina Stylianou, Finn Hogan and Dr Stephen Noakes coming right up after the break. But first, we catch up with one of Australia's six Independent women candidates who ran against sitting Liberal male MPs and won. - And the country's vote has also sent another message, with the surprise success of six blue-green independent candidates. - The teals are eating them alive. - What we have achieved here is extraordinary. - Our climate has changed. (CHEERING) - The teal tidal wave. - We really need to hear from professional women. - Australia's new prime minister, Anthony Albanese. - I'm ready. Thank you for this extraordinary honour. - I, as leader, take responsibility for the wins and the losses. - I'm personally pretty happy about it. - The country needed a change. - It's about time for women not to be irrelevant. - You can't forget about 50% of the population. - We are socially progressive. We are environmentally focused. - Because you're ready for change, just like I am. - Yes, they were called the 'teal wave', named after the colour of their campaigns. Six independent women candidates running against sitting Liberal male MPs and winning. - One of them is Kylea Tink, who won a conservative stronghold in North Sydney. I asked whether she thought she could ever win that seat. - (LAUGHS) Oh, um... The obvious answer to that question is yes, because I don't think we would've run if we didn't believe that we could win. The reality is that I was approached by a community group that already done some very long-term and hard thinking about whether an independent could get up here in the seat of North Sydney. The seat of North Sydney has been a blue ribbon, Liberal seat for almost its entire existence, 120-odd years. Six years it was held by a male independent, so it was just a really exciting time. We campaigned for 36 weeks, day in, day out, hour to hour, really. Just really working hard to actively reengage the people of North Sydney. - What was the one thing that won you the seat, given it's such a Liberal stronghold? - Yeah, it was the simple fact that people across my electorate felt they weren't being heard any more. - You've one of six new teal independents. Is what you've identified the success behind the movement? - I believe it is, Simon. I believe it is very much a case that the people here in Australia have said they want politics done differently. You know, we have ended up with a two-party system that has been gridlocked around each other for the last decade. And so I think the single biggest thing for anyone looking from the outside in to take out of this, is this was about a community rising peacefully to say, 'Government should be about the people, not the parties, and therefore let's do it differently.' - There were claims during the campaign that you were 'fake' independents, because you received backing from a climate change organisation, and your platforms were all very similar. Are you truly independent? - Yeah, 100% truly independent. And I think that those claims were very much an attack line that was run by the two major parties. - But there was a common backer of the six independents ` Climate 200, a climate change organisation, and you acknowledged you got backing from Climate 200. Did they put this programme together? - No. No, no. And, in fact, I had to introduce myself to Climate 200 after I was identified as the community independent here to understand what is was that they` the role they thought they might play or what sort of service they might think they would play. I think what's really important around this is that, again here in Australia, this phrase 'Climate 200' has been picked up as if it's some sort of nefarious external organisation that's been a bit of a puppeteer across people like myself. The reality is Climate 200 is nothing more than a crowdfunding platform. So I believe there are about 12,500 Australians that donated to Climate 200, because Climate 200 said it would support independents who are prepared to advocate for faster action on climate. I was able to go to them when I needed funding, which enabled me, in part, to at least put up a fair fight against the major parties here in Australia. - So apart from climate change, you're also pushing for an Integrity Commission. Why is that necessary? - Here in Australia, we've had a rapid deterioration in the quality of the way politics is done, and you've seeing that in a rapid deterioration in trust around Australian politics. We've had multiple examples of wasteful spending in Australia. We've had rorts where money that was previously identified to go to a specific purpose was then redirected through ministerial discretion with no process of review. We've had parliamentarians involved in blind trusts, you know, being set up behind them to support legal proceedings. And, generally speaking, a lot of the behaviour we've seen in Canberra, particularly in the last six to nine years, simply wouldn't be tolerated in a normal work environment. - There's always been misogyny in Australian politics. So why is it that six women, independent women, have been voted in at the same time? - I think, you know, it's interesting. People have made a lot about the fact that the majority of the independent candidates that have been successful are female. And I often offer the observation back to people that it's not so hard to stand out when you're so rarely seen. (CHUCKLES) So, you know, they reality is ` Australian politics is not in a situation where we have equal male and female participation. So I do think that this was a moment in time where communities turned back to themselves and went, 'OK, we need somebody who's prepared to stand and fight for us.' And there were a number of people like me who had, you know, until that point in time, seriously never really considered entering politics, but it made sense to do so on the basis that I could fight for something I believed in. And that something that I believe in is my community. - You are in the thick of it now. Will the independents form a voting block when you're in parliament? Have you been talking to the other ones? - No. No, and I don't believe that that is the way we will work. I mean, we are, as we have said before, fundamentally we are all independent community representatives. That's what we've committed to doing. I think what we are, although, is also infinitely sensible people who bring with us vast experience in terms of business background and, in my case, community building, you know. So it will be natural for me to seek to build consensus across the parliament, so that will include people on the cross bench, but, equally, it will include people in Government and in opposition. - You, in theory, could be the power brokers, because Labour has yet to get to that 76-seat majority. I mean, that's a possibility. - It is a possibility, but what I think is really important on that basis is to recognise that people like myself, and the other independents that I've met to date` none of us have been drawn to politics for power. That's not why we've doing this. - If Labour came to you and said, 'Would you be the person that put us into power?' what would your bottom line be? - Well, unfortunately, I would be the person who would say no. (LAUGHS) I won't be the person who puts you into power. I'm happy to support a government once it's formed, and I will absolutely guarantee supply, because it's important that Australians have confidence in their government. I will not be doing any secret deals to enable, you know, somebody to step into power. For me, this is about transparency and accountability, and so I intend to enter politics in the same way I intend to hold myself for the whole three years. - New Australian independent Kylea Tink, thank you for your time. - Thank you. It's been a pleasure. - Kylea Tink there. I'm joined now by our panel. Our digital editor, Finn Hogan, former National staffer turned government relations consultant Georgina Stylianou. Thanks for coming along. And Dr Stephen Noakes, who's a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Auckland University. Lots to talk about. I'm just gonna deal with the teal wave first, guys. Georgie, I mean, why do you think they had so much of an impact this election? - I mean, incredible to watch, right? And I think it just shows Liberal government becoming too conservative over time, too out of touch. And this is a real no to pale, male, stale, and fantastic to see these affluent, educated women. And I'm all for it. - Because Aussie politics is known for being a bit of a bear pit. I mean, could it make it a bit more bearable? - I hope so. I hope so. I mean, Australia is backwards on climate change. They have been backwards in treatment of Indigenous people and women. I really hope to see this rattle the cage. - Yeah, Scott Morrison gone, Finn, face of Australian politics changing. - I mean, if you could say the passing of power between one middle-aged white guy to another middle-aged white guy is a change, yeah, sure. But no, I think the surging of the independents is the real story here. And it just shows there is this growing dissatisfaction with centrist parties that are entrenched and lobbed power back and forth between each other and never address acute crises like climate change. And I think this is gonna be reflected around the world, and we're going to see this with independent parties. - Why don't we have independents here? I mean, has anybody got an opinion on that one? - I mean, this is definitely to your point, Finn. This is a bit of a` people are disenfranchised with the two-party system. We do have important roles for minor parties. We're seeing that already over here, the Greens and ACT, particularly. New Zealand First has obviously been in that position. So I think I'm not sure if we could carry independents. We're a small country, but it'd be interesting to see, right? - Yeah, yeah. OK. Well, that's gonna be fascinating. It could happen. Let's move on to the big picture of China. So China's making its power play into the Pacific at the moment. The PM's touring the , US and China is touring the Pacific, Stephen. What's at stake here? - I think what you're really seeing is growing geostrategic competition in the region between China as the new player and some of the more established players in the region, including the United States. And in principle, what I think you could see is that kind of competition putting pressure on smaller and middle players across the region to bandwagon with one side or the other. - Right. And do you think there's a temptation for these small players that China's targeting right now, the ten nations, for them to bandwagon with China? - Certainly, yeah. China's a different kind of player in a lot of ways and, regarding its aid programme, will fund certain things that traditional donors across the Pacific will not and in ways they will not. So certainly there's a carrot there. - There is a carrot. Is it the beginning of a change of order in our backyard, to use another word? - Potentially, yes. - But what kind` what can China offer these nations that would tempt them to do it? - Partly, it's about the nature of the aid programme and the sorts of things which the PRC has proven willing to fund ` large infrastructure projects which traditional aid donors will not. It's quite rare, for example, that Canberra or Wellington would fund the construction of an airport or something like that. - Yeah, it's direct funding, isn't it? - I just` I mean, we also need to remind ourselves that these are sovereign nations. And I don't think that vesting interest in fisheries is going to go down with proud Pacific people. I mean, that is an incredibly important topic for them. And there's a guardianship there. And I would like to see that you have Pacific Island residents themselves pushing back on this. I don't think it's just a fait accompli because China's come along and said, 'Hey, here's some cheap cash and some infrastructure.' - It is certainly true that there's quite a lot of variation in attitudes towards China across the region. Our reasons that we talk about the Pacific in the way we talk about the Pacific, but it's not all one place. - It's not homogenous, right? It's not homogenous. - And I just wanted to say as well, you touched on mining in that interview with Winston Peters, and I think that's a really interesting area because China's played a very clever game over the last 10 years. They predicted the electrification of everything a long time ago and have been buying up cobalt mines, copper mines, lithium mines, and they now control a large amount of the supply chain there. There's a lot of copper in the Pacific, and a lot of it is in the sea floor. But seafloor mining is now starting to ramp up. So I think this is part of the strategy. While they can't get to it yet over the next decade, it's a massive resource strategy. - OK. So Winston Peters, you mentioned, just said he is very critical, Georgie, of the current foreign minister and our government, at the moment, dropping the ball, basically. Have they dropped the ball? - Yeah, I agree with Winston on this one. I think that` I mean, Penny Wong, third day in the job. She's` - The Australian Foreign Minister. - Yes, and I do wonder` 'course we've had COVID, of course, over the last two years, travel has been difficult, and diplomacy has had to operate over email. But she should be there, and I think we need to be focussing a lot more on Pacific Travel. I did hear from a Beehive source this week that ministers have been told to prioritise Pacific travel. So I would hope that in coming days we start seeing some media releases. - This is` OK, this is, but` Stephen, I would say that the contrast between Nanaia Mahuta and Penny Wong, who's over there splashing the cash right now, is quite a contrast, isn't it, in terms of their approach? - Yeah, I mean, one of the things that I think you've heard from the minister here that you may not have heard in years past, is that there's going to be an emphasis, or New Zealand needs to place more emphasis on not having all our eggs in a single basket. - Yeah. - I'm actually quite comfortable with that perspective. For a small country remotely placed in a geographic sense, diversification is good in my mind. - Sure. And I mean, you're talking about, you know, our free trade policy with China and being so dependent on that. - That's right. - And so they have got a trade, sort of a diversification agenda on the go with, like, free trade agreements in the EU underway. with the UK. So that is underway. But in terms of the Pacific particularly, have we really dropped the ball? - (SIGHS) I think that there's been,... or needs to be, greater recognition, as was said. Sovereignty has to mean sovereignty everywhere. There's a tendency, I think, sometimes for us to talk about the Pacific as if it's our backyard. - Yeah. - Which maybe isn't quite the right message to send. These are sovereign nations full of proud people with their own perspectives on things, and that deserves greater airtime. - So it's not a foregone conclusion that China's just going to sweep through the Pacific and sign everybody. - Certainly not. - OK. - But we need to be a good friend, not just one who choppers in and then choppers back. - (LAUGHS) OK. All right. Let's just move on to Jacinda Ardern in the US on her` on a tour. She was at Harvard this week, Finn, calling out the social media giants over misinformation. Can we expect change from that kind of speech? - Look, I think everyone agrees with Ardern in the general sense that misinformation is a problem. But as soon as you start talking specifics, it gets really problematic really quickly. Policing speech is really hard. Look` look at here, we can't even get hate speech legislation out the door cos no one agrees what it is. Look at the Christchurch call. Defining extremist content is very difficult. Enabling any institution or any government to say what is and isn't true is an absolute nightmare. I think you've gotta go the other way and look at the practical applications you can do within social media giants to stop content going viral in a dangerous way. You can just add a little bit of friction to the system by making it harder to retweet things. Just literally just adding an extra box to check. Get rid of the endless scroll algorithm. Demonetise things between 12am and 6am. Remove the business incentive to have people on all day, every day. - This is your plan, right? OK. - Just call me any time. - Yeah, OK. I'll get Elon to give you a call. But she's going for the top level. She's going off to Seattle to talk to the tech execs and just go to the top level and say, 'You need to do something about that.' I mean, we've seen that with Christchurch Call, Georgie. Is it gonna make any difference? - No. - OK. - And I also` as much as I thought his speech at Harvard was cracking. I mean, what a momentous occasion. I mean, pretty light on substance in terms of algorithms and development. And it was` I kind of was left thinking, what does that mean? And I think to Finn's point, we're having a hard time with it. And I also know that the tech companies themselves, for the most part, have been quite comfortable with regulation of content. And their kind of line has been, 'You tell us what your local laws are and we'll follow them.' - Yeah. - So is it the tech companies? Existentially, is it their role to play judge, jury, executioner over content? - And at the end of the day, Facebook has 3 billion users. They've got a market cap four times our entire GDP. There's a power differential. We're never gonna get over, so we're not exactly gonna crack the whip. - Just one last thing before we wrap this up? Speaking of power differentials, so Jacinda Ardern is going to meet somebody called Joe Biden at the place called the White House. - Never heard of him. - Never heard of him. Stephen, she'll probably talk trade, but she'll probably talk China and Pacific. I mean, is he going to be interested in her talking about China and the Pacific? - I would think that there would be at least some receptivity to talk of that source. I mean, there's just been the announcement of the Indo-Pacific economic framework. Certainly there would be some common ground for the two of them. - And on the same day, I should point out, that she meets Joe Biden. K-Pop supergroup BTS is gonna be there as well. Who's gonna be the most popular? - Not exactly my area, unfortunately, Simon. - Who's BTS? - I literally have never heard of that until this second. - OK, there you go. - We're so boring, oh my God. - Oh, my gosh. You guys are really disappointing me on that one. And with that disappointment, I'm going to end the panel. Stephen, Georgie and Finn, thank you so much. (LAUGHS) Still to come ` from Beijing and San Francisco to Canberra and Epsom, David Seymour stops in on his way to launch ACT's by-election campaign in Tauranga. The polls have been going in the wrong direction, but David Seymour still believes ACT is a more effective opposition party than National, has a real shot in the Tauranga by-election. ACT is launching its Tauranga campaign tonight. Are they dreaming? ACT leader David Seymour joins me now. Tena koe. - Hey, good morning. And I gotta take you up ` 'The polls are going in the wrong direction'? Hang on a second. - Yeah, well, they are. For you. Like` - The last two polls have had ACT a couple of points ahead of where we were on election night. Uh, now shows that it would be a quarter of a change of government. - I know, but you've had a` you have had a terrible year. - Yeah, yeah. We had a` - So let's` - Compared with record polling last year. But let's` let's not start off on a negative note. We're very pleased with where we're going... - OK. I'm glad you're pleased. Uh` - ...and the support we're getting from people. - All right. What about support in Tauranga? What really makes you think that Cameron Luxton has a chance down there? - Well, look, (SIGHS) this is a by-election, where Tauranga people have a chance to send a message to Wellington. Cameron Luxton is that message. He's a builder. He's a dad. - Mm-hm. - He runs a small business, employs a bunch of people. He's been a farmer. And people in Tauranga are absolutely fed up. They're fed up ` first of all, with the crime ` - Yeah. - that bus stop in the middle of town there; they're fed up with the cost of living, as are people right across the country, and they're also fed up with having co-governance being the one thing that this government does continue to focus on. So` - So, Cameron` - (CLEARS THROAT) - Cameron Luxton last election got 1700 votes ` 4%. - Mm. - It's a long way off. - Yeah, but as you know, by-elections are a very different game from any other kind of elec` - That much of a different game? - Yeah, they can be. - But` But` (CHUCKLES) But National has been in there, what, since 2005. And that's after Winston. - Yeah. Yeah, and, look, ultimately, it's actually up to the people of Tauranga. So the message is ` if you think that the political system offers very little choice, if you're fed up with crime, with co-governance, with constant cost- of-living increases... - OK. - ...if you're sick of democracy being taken away from Tauranga and you want to send a message to Wellington, then` You know, if you keep doing what you've always done, you'll get what you've always got. - Is` Is Cameron Luxton the right person, though? I mean, you talk about democracy being taken away from Tauranga ` you're talking about Anne Tolley there, the commissioner down there. He said off, 'Off with Anne Tolley's head.' - (CHUCKLES) - Didn't he? - No, he didn't. He actually said... - 'Off with her head'? - ...she's the` she's the` No, no. He said she's the Marie Antoinette of Tauranga, forced on the people by Wellington, a former National Party minister. And this is what I mean by there not being enough choice in poli` - 'Off with her head.' - No. No, he said` he said, 'The power's gone to her head, and we say off with it.' And the` And the` - Right. Off with the power or off with`? But` Yeah. - I tell you` And` Yeah, and that's right. And the other thing he said is Tauranga needs a revolution. You know, it's sick of going Labour, National, Labour, National; bit of Winston in there once upon a time, the government before them. - So is`? (CHUCKLES) Yeah. Is he the right person? - Actually` Yes, absolutely. - Is that candidate the right person to be representing Tauranga in Parliament? - That's the option` - Would that`? - That's the option that Tauranga people have. - Mm. - And I tell you the other thing he did ` - (LAUGHS) - he went and met with Anne Tolley a few days later and he took her a beautiful cake. So not only` - So he acknowledged he was wrong. - (CHUCKLES) No, no` - He acknowledged he was wrong. - No, no, no. I think` You know, the historical reference ` she said, 'Let them eat cake.' - OK. - So not only does he know his history; he's got a sense of humour, he's making waves and standing up for Tauranga. He's exactly the sort of person Tauranga needs. - All right. So, there's been an increase in gang tensions ` not only in the Bay of Plenty, but also the drive-by shootings in Tamaki Makaurau. - Mm. - What's your solution to get those guns off the gangs? - Well, look, first of all, where we are is a conse` I will answer that, but it's a consequence of two things ` first of all, Labour coming in with the attitude that gangs are our friends. We've had too much of that. - Yup. - We've nurtured them for too long. That's the first problem. The second problem is COVID has been everything, and we've turned our back on real problems, including the Pacific. - All right. And` - When it comes to our solution... - Yep? - ...our policy is, first of all, gang injunction orders, successful in the UK ` a good-behaviour contract for someone looking at getting into the gang lifestyle; second of all, civil asset forfeitures are far too tame. The reason that people are joining gangs, the reason a lot of kids' best prospect is becoming a mob prospect, is because they've got so much money, and we say civil asset forfeitures needed far more teeth. If you're a gang member` - So take their assets, right? - Yep. If you're a gang member with illegal guns ` and they should be, because gang members shouldn't have gun licences ` and you're also dealing illegal drugs, it's open season on your assets. None of the usual restraints on civil assets forfeitures. - So` But how is seizing assets going to stop the flow of illegal guns to people? - Well, first of all, you're only eligible to have your assets seized if you're caught with illegal guns. So one thing that gangs might do is start dealing drugs without guns ` which would still be bad, but a big improvement... - OK. - ...on the constant LA-style shootouts we're seeing now. Second of all, if you don't defund them... - Mm. - ...then they're actually not going to stop, because as long as it's profitable to keep doing what they're doing... - You said` OK. - ...as sure as water runs downhill, they'll keep doing it. - You said this week on Newshub that you need to tax gangs as a way of disrupting them. How can you tax something that doesn't declare their income? - Well, that was an analogy, and I'm glad you asked that, because a few people` - Well, yeah. I think` - A few people misunderstood what I was saying, and I'm sorry I didn't make it clearer. What we're saying is ` look, right now, civil asset forfeitures, last year about $50 million, estimated half a billion dollars worth of P. That's a 10% tax rate. I was saying analogously we need to increase their tax rate; we need to take more through civil asset forfeitures. - So your form of` Right. So it's by seizing their assets... - So` Yeah, so it's a` - ...that you say, you know... - It's not actually IRD tax... - Yeah. - ...but you know what I mean. We need to take more of what they make ` just like the government's constantly taking off people who work, save and sacrifice legally. We shouldn't be letting these guys get off scot-free. - If you're getting, uh, like, tougher on gangs, I mean, would you go as far as Christopher Luxon, who wants warrantless search orders to target gang pads? - Well, I think we should be cer` targeting gang pads. I think the fact is the police need to actually start getting tougher on them. But when it comes to, 'Are we going to start taking away the rule of law 'and the basic legal protections that people have?' there's always going to be a tension. So people say, 'Ban the gangs; ban their patches, 'take away all their rights.' Actually, you're still going to have the rule of law, so I'm not sure what Chris was saying there. But I think` - So you're saying that, you know, your proposal for going in has to be warranted? - Well, I think` I think, first of all, you know, we're not` we're a lawful country. Just remember why we're opposed to gangs ` cos they don't follow the law. We're not going to get rid of our own respect for the law in the process. That's always been a difficult balance for people that want to get tough on gangs. But I'd be very wary of supporting a government that wanted to get rid of warrants. - OK. All right. And just finally ` curveball ` have you been watching Dancing with the Stars? Have you`? - (LAUGHS) You know what? I actually haven't. I've still got the PTSD... - (LAUGHS) - ...from that, so no. (CHUCKLES) - All right. David Seymour, thank you very much for your time. - Thank you. Thank you very much. - OK. Stay with us. We'll be back after the break. where we give MPs just five minutes to sell you on their ideas. Following several shootings in Tamaki Makaurau Auckland this week, National's Police spokesperson, Mark Mitchell, says we need more guns in police hands. Reporter Finn Hogan started by asking him what his first move would be if he was police minister. - Four years ago, we were very clear about the fact that we'd establish a dedicated gang task force, and that would have a national capability` - Strike Force Raptor. - The Australian version was Strike Force Raptor, and we were gonna call ours Task Force Resolute, which, I think, sends a very clear message that it would be a resolute task force that's actually out there, targeting and arresting gangs and making sure that they aren't out on the streets, that they aren't carrying firearms, and they don't feel like they've got the licence to be able to drive past people's homes and shoot at them. Bearing in mind, they're using high-powered, military-style rifles. Those rounds can pass through three or four houses, and it's just been pure luck that we haven't had someone seriously injured or killed with one of these drive-by shootings. And by the way, that luck is gonna run out eventually. - The public roundly rejected a trial of armed response teams. - I don't` I don't think the public rejected that at all, in terms of the police have an armed response capability. I think that was a soft-on-crime government that didn't have the intestinal fortitude to actually stick with it, and they should have. And when you look at what's happening now and, you know` we've had police officers shot and killed, like, during` in broad daylight, on the streets of West Auckland. And, actually, the police needed to have a strong response` - So more cops should be routinely armed in New Zealand. - Front line police officers need to have readily available that tactical option for them. - On the person, not just in the car. - That's for the police to decide. That's an operational decision. But they have to have` - But if you're gonna be police minister, this will be up to you as well. - If I'm police minister, I'll be making sure that we're not put in a situation where` with Constable Matthew Hunt and Constable David Goldfinch that faced a gang member armed with two high-powered rifles, and they didn't actually have the ability to protect themselves or members of the public. That will not happen again. - National will not support a firearms registry, would scrap the 200 million the government has dedicated towards that. Why don't we need a firearm registry? - No, we wouldn't scrap it. What we've said is that they've spent $300 million on gun reform, and we had nine drive-by shootings in the last 48 hours. That is` Fundamentally, it hasn't worked ` it has failed. And we said that it needs to target the people that have got these illegal firearms, and that's organised crime members and gang members, and that's where we would focus the funding. - How many guns do we have in New Zealand? - Well, no one can tell us. - Isn't that a problem? - It's a massive problem. The government` - Wouldn't a registry help with this? - The government's been very clear` Look, a registry may help. If a registry will help stop the straw man sales of firearms to gang members, then we would completely, totally support that. But we wanna be absolutely sure that we are targeting the right part of society, and that's the part of society that doesn't want to follow the rules, that ignores the laws and continues to carry and use illegal firearms. - You've called on the government to review their pursuit policy. Do you believe that's what's driving this spike in ram raids? - If you talk to the front line police officers, this is one of their greatest frustrations is that, under the current pursuit policy, juvenile and youth offenders know that they can steal a car, they know that they can commit crime and they know that they can drive past a police officer, flicking the bird at them, and there's no consequences. And it goes a long way towards the proliferation and the growth that we've seen in this juvenile and youth offending, especially around the ram raids. - But the reason we changed that pursuit policy was that we lost 79 lives as a direct result of police pursuits, many of them children, a lot of them innocent bystanders; 79 lives from 2008 ` in a decade. - So that's why we've said that there needs to be an intelligent review of the policy, to find out what can be done. Is there a halfway? Are there some additional powers or resources or tactical options that can be given to the police? We know that the Eagle can be very effective, but the only city in Auckland that actually` the only city in New Zealand that actually has an Eagle capability is Auckland. They ran a trial in Christchurch; it was very successful, but the trial has gone away. - Is overall youth crime on the rise in New Zealand? - If you look at the government stats, they're saying it's reducing overall. I don't have a high level of confidence in the data that we're currently being given, because, if you just apply a pragmatic, common-sense view to it, I think most Kiwis would say that they've seen a rise in youth offending. - That's anecdotal, though. If we look at the Justice figures over the last decade, it does seem, in the big picture, it's down by 65%. Those are hard numbers. - Well, I hope that trend is actually accurate. - You're contesting their figures. You're saying those figures are wrong. - I'm saying I don't have a high level of confidence in the data that we've been given at the moment. - So, yes, you're saying they're wrong. - The reason for that is because most Kiwis, if they applied the common-sense rule, would say that it doesn't feel like youth offending is reducing. It feels like it's increasing. - Finally, at next election, with recent polling, there's a bit of wind in National's sails, do you wanna be police minister? - It's the portfolio that I asked our leader for. I am very passionate about community safety. I think that we could be the safest country in the world. But I've been extremely disappointed to see that we're heading in the wrong direction over the last three or four years. So, yes, I'm hoping that, next year, I'll be the incoming police minister. - Any aspirations to be leader or have you given up on that? - No, there's no aspirations at all to be leader. We've got a very, very good leader. He's doing extremely well, and he's gonna make a great prime minster. - Mark Mitchell there. We're back with our panel ` Finn Hogan, Dr Stephen Noakes and Georgina Stylianou. I just wanted to touch on the Prime Minister's meeting with Joe Biden again, Stephen. Uh, human rights in China and the Uyghurs ` I mean, is that something that she should be raising with Joe Biden? - I would... really hope so, but I'm not, at the same time, hopeful that it was actually raised. With everything that's been happening around the world in the last week or so, I assume that it, like many other very important things, would have been crowded out. - But the focus is on there. Like` As Debi Edwards said, you know, the UN Commissioner is in China now to look at the Uyghurs, but what can we hope from that? - I really couldn't say specifically. Um, I... - Yeah. - Just to say I would like to have seen it raised, but I obviously wasn't in the room, and I would've expected that there are other things that they would have had to talk about it. - Yeah. Well, there are other things going on in the world. - Of course. - Yeah, yeah. - I thought, with the Biden meeting, it is sort of interesting that` Usually when world leaders meet the US president, they're hoping for a photo op so some of that power rubs off on them. But Biden is so unpopular right now, I think it's almost the other way around and that he's hoping to just get some of that magic dust off Jacinda rubbing on to him. - Right. - So there is in some ways that little popularity differential, even if the power differential isn't there. - But also, as happenstance` tragic happenstance is that we had the mass shooting this week in America, and Jacinda Ardern was asked about her gun control measures and was she, sort of, using that over there, I mean, as a sort of, 'Look what we've done'? - I think she actually struck the right balance. I mean, her appearance on Stephen Colbert, for example ` she was pretty quick to point out, 'I'm not saying it's perfect.' I mean, that interview aired the morning after we'd had seven shootings in Auckland overnight. - Mm. - So I think for Kiwis back at home watching it, it was like, 'You be careful. Don't be preachy here, because we ain't perfect.' - CHUCKLES: Yeah. Yeah. - But in comparison to the US, um, I think it was a great thing for her to be talking about, with their situation. - Right. OK. It is a big issue here at the moment. And so` We just saw Mark Mitchell talking about how` Finn, how they would tackle` National would tackle the gangs and the guns. - Mm. - But they weren't talking about scrapping the registry. I thought they` Is that a backdown? - They were talking about not going through with the 200 million that Labour has allocated to it. So he's basically` not a full scrapping, but, 'We're not going to invest nearly as much money in it.' And I did think he was a little bit soft when we were saying, 'Isn't it a problem that we don't know how many guns are in the country, 'and wouldn't a registry help?' And his point was more on the straw-man sale, and a straw-man sale basically just means someone with a licence buying a firearm and giving it to another person. - Right. - So that's what he was focusing on. But on the overall message of, 'We need to get more guns into the right hands to keep them out of the wrong ones,' I think` Look, if more guns was the answer, America would be the safest place on Earth. - OK. All right. But is this a real issue for Labour at the moment? Georgie? - Well, (SIGHS) I mean, I don't think being hard on crime equals guns, so I definitely disagree with Mark Mitchell's approach. I don't want to see us arming rookie cops who have spent 16 weeks at police college. But there is no doubt that Poto Williams, the Police Minister, has been weak ` very, very weak indeed. And I think her announcement this week was a step in the right direction ` but too little, too late. 6 million bucks for some fog cannons and barricades... - This is for the ram-raiding, right? - The ram raids. - So there's a different issue there. - Totally different issue. But what we're seeing from the Police Minister does make it easy for opposition to keep saying, 'She's soft on crime.' - Well, that` It's true. In terms of the timing of her announcements ` I mean, they announced a big package ` I think almost half a billion dollars, 450 ` for extra officers and specialist forces. But` Oh, you know, armed forces... I'm not sure (CHUCKLES) what the right term is. I can't remember. But the ram-riding didn't get` actually get a mention. So are they always late to the party? Are they behind the times? - They totally were. And you heard that from business` from commentary from business advocates and those in the sector. We've been saying this for six, seven, eight, nine months. I mean, basically, the cops have been dealing with COVID the same way as we as a country have, right? They haven't been doing that same level of frontline policing, and now we are seeing the knock-on effects of that. It's pure and simple. - So the issue of gangs, Labour being soft of gangs, is, Finn, just a present for ACT and National? - Well, absolutely. I mean, obviously, this is the classic right-wing talking point of, 'We need to be tougher on gangs.' And I'm glad that you brought up with Seymour the whole, 'Oh, we need to tax the gangs more.' It was a very rhetorical flourish for him. And look, I think it is a gift, but I think` As you were bringing up with him at the start of that interview with Seymour, I think the glory days are behind them. - He is really, uh, quite disputing that. He took me to task about it. - He's disputing that, but` Look, of course he has taken a large sector of, sort of, centre-right voters who are fleeing the dumpster fire of National of the last couple of years. - Yeah. - Now Luxon's in there, they aren't coming back. - (LAUGHS) - I'm sorry, David, but the glory days are gone. You're not gonna be coming in on that boat again. I just don't see it happening. - What do you think of that description ` 'dumpster fire of National 'over the last two years'? - (CHUCKLES) I mean, yeah, there is no mincing of words to be had there, Finn. I love it. They have been. - (LAUGHTER) - They totally have been. Um, so... Yeah, I mean, obviously, David himself, as a politician, has really` has been galvanised by National's recent failures. - Mm. - ...and that's his challenge now, right, for the electorate, is how does ACT succeed while National also succeeds? Um, it's going to be interesting. But I think ACT are in a good place. I think they are resonating with people. You know, whether you agree or disagree, he's resonating. - Mm. - Does` Stephen, I just wonder ` Jacinda Ardern is seen to be like a pioneer in terms of firearms legislation on an international stage, and there she is, you know, talking about it in the States. Is this going to be good for her in terms of a legacy, where she goes on next? - I mean, I'm in no way an expert on New Zealand politics in the way that others here are. I really couldn't say. - Right. OK. - And just finally ` ACT in Tauranga ` Finn, what's the point? - Oh, well, look, they have to be seen to be there. Obviously David Seymour has to come on here and say that he's got a great chance. I think, based on what we're seeing now, National is likely to walk away with it. I was a little bit confused with Winston Peters' response as to why he wasn't staying there. 'Oh, well, no, uh, it's because, uh, 'Simon Bridges walked out on a contract; therefore, I can't be there.' Seems a little bit like a, 'I wasn't invited to the party, 'but I didn't even want to be there anyway, so shame.' You know? - (CHUCKLES) Yeah, I did... You got any views on Winston? - Um, I wasn't surprised that he didn't seek to run in Tauranga. Mm. - Um, I sort of` And I think, from an ideal` well, a theoretical standpoint, Winston does have very deeply entrenched views about our democracy and how it should work. - Yeah. - So I actually believe him when he says, 'I don't agree with why we're having a by-election; 'therefore I choose to take myself out of it.' - Right. - That sounds like something WP would say to me. - LAUGHS: All right. OK. Well, I'm gonna leave it there. Thank you so much for being on the panel today, Stephen Noakes... - Thank you. - ...Georgie Stylianou and Finn Hogan. And that is our show for this week. Thank you so much for watching ` nga mihi nui ` and we'll see you again next weekend. Captions by Jessie Puru, Sophie Pearce and Maeve Kelly. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - This show was brought to you by the NZ On Air Public Interest Journalism Fund.