- And I'm Simon Shepherd. Nau mai and welcome to Newshub Nation. On the programme today ` We're on the ground in Tauranga as our exclusive poll reveals who's up and who's down ahead of the by-election. - If the budget was good for Maori, why do we need a roadshow? Three Maori ministers front on funding and co-governance. - And is National overreacting on China in the Pacific? Gerry Brownlee joins us live. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 Well, the Tauranga by-election is just two weeks away. A safe National seat. Yet, last election, Labour's Jan Tinetti slashed Simon Bridges majority. So can she do the same to the new National candidate Sam Uffindell? Well, Newshub Nation and Reid Research have conducted a poll in Tauranga, and here's the answer. When asked which candidate they will vote for on the 18th of June, 56.9% said National's new candidate, Sam Uffindell. That's 14% higher than Simon Bridges' win last election. It's at Labour's expense. 21.9% would vote for Jan Tinetti, down a whopping 16.6%. ACT's Cameron Luxton is third, up 3.5% on 2020. Rounding out the top five is Andrew Hollis from the New Nation Party and Sue Grey from the Outdoors and Freedom Party, both below our margin of error. But here is a key figure. Almost a third of those polled still haven't decided who they will vote for. But if a general election was held tomorrow, here's how those polled in Tauranga would vote. National soars to 51.5%, up 19% on 2020, and labour drops to 27.9, down 14 points. ACT is down 1.8% to 7.1. The Green Party halving its support to 2.8%, and New Zealand First down as well. But look at Te Pati Maori, almost at 5%, despite not standing this by-election, a rise of more than four points on Election 2020. So Te Pati Maori increasingly popular in the electorate that it called racist. So we asked how long a voters whether they think the city really is racist. 31.9% said yes, 52.2 said no, and 16% couldn't make up their minds or didn't know. Back to you, Oriini. - Kia ora, Si. So those were the numbers. But what is it like on the ground on the campaign trail in Tauranga? Senior reporter Connor Whitten has been in Te Moana a Toi ` The Bay of Plenty this week with voters and the leading candidates. - For 87 years, the blue National ribbon has been a golden ticket in the Tauranga seat. Labour hasn't won here since the 1930s. Only Winston Peters has beaten National since. But Simon Bridges' resignation means the seat's wide open, with a by-election two weeks away. And Sam Uffindell, the new National candidate... - Have you met Sam? - Oh, no, I haven't met Sam. - ...is to make an impression fast. - I'm not taking anything for granted. So I'll be working as hard as I can right up through until the by-election. - Labour nearly won here in 2020. List MP and Cabinet Minister Jan Tinetti falling just a few percentage points short. - Gidday, sir. Cameron's my name. How are you? - And ACT's Cameron Luxton likes his prospects too. - I think my chances are high and increasing. We're getting so much momentum behind us. I think we are going to win this. - When Luxton launched his campaign in April, he pointed to Act's internal polling, showing Tauranga voters saw them, not National, as the most effective party in opposition. Have you done any more polling since? How are you going? - No, I` done any more polling. I'm sure Newshub would love to pay for some and get some done for us. - As a matter of fact, we did. Our exclusive Newshub Nation Reid Research poll is the only public survey of Tauranga voters, and it shows National surging back. Uffindell the overwhelming favourite predicted to win 57% of the vote. - I'm not looking at the polls, you know. I do not have it in the bag at all, and I would encourage everyone in Tauranga at home to please get out and vote. - Labour and Tinetti were just 2000 votes from stealing the seat at the last election, but 2020's red wave has crashed in Tauranga. Tinetti down 16 points since then, at 22% in our poll. - We're really realistic about our chances in this by-election. - Worse for Labour, the party vote sinking down 14 points as well. - We are seeing people's reaction to the fact that things have been tough for them. Their journey through COVID` times has been tough. - ACT and Luxton have gained ground since the last election from 4 to 7.4%, but it's nowhere near his predictions of winning. He trails Uffindell by 50%. - My polling has doubled since the 2020 election, which is a great result. - Former Tauranga councillor Andrew Hollis and his New Nation party are on 3.9%, while Outdoors and Freedom Party leader Sue Grey, a prominent face of the anti-mandate protests at Parliament, is on 3.4%, both less than this poll's margin of error. But there's still so much to play for. Nearly a third of voters are undecided, with two weeks to go till polling day. - I haven't really sorted who I'm gonna vote for. - Um, really, I don't actually trust any of them. - Tauranga is New Zealand's fifth largest city. What was once a quiet destination for retirement is now our fastest growing place. And with that comes big city problems. - Number one, housing. - You just drive around here in the morning and see what a small city has to put up with. - Traffic is pretty bad. - There's also concern here over the Council... - We want our city back. - ...and the Bay of Plenty's growing problem with gangs. - Now we've probably all had our own experiences with gangs. - It drew a packed house at Tauranga Yacht Club for a National public meeting on gangs and crime. Gang numbers have swollen in the Bay of Plenty. So much so, Uffindell claims there are twice as many gang members as cops. - That is a real concern for them, and it's a real concern for us here in the National Party. - So the new candidate has a novel solution ` to ban bikies tearing through town. A new member's bill to punish gang members for riding in convoys through the city, issuing fines or impounding bikes. - Frankly, it's just plain ridiculous that they should own the roads instead of normal people of New Zealand. So what this will do is give police the powers to stop them doing that. - The idea receives a rousing reception. But some in the audience have their doubts. - The solution is not with the police. The solution isn't even in Parliament. It's not other people The solution is in the home. - And it's not at all clear how the bill would work. How do you define a gang member for this? - Well, they'd be a member of an organised crime unit, and we know how to identify those. And there is already a register of gang members in New Zealand. - So it's people on the national gang list. - They make it easy for us by riding around with patches on their back, displaying themselves. - Right, so if you're wearing a patch, then you'll be targeted by this law? - Not necessarily. I mean, people can wear patches at the moment, and, generally, they do, cos they like to show off who they are. - How specifically are you going to be able to say, 'This is a gang member, and their vehicle should be impounded'? - Well, it's likely to fall back on that bit you pointed out before, around that gang registry, that gang membership registry. - It also doesn't capture every gang member. So if you're not on the list, then you're OK? - Well, we'll do a bit of work around that. I mean, we haven't got across all the finer details yet. - Crime and punishment may be part of the picture, but Tinetti says the root causes of crime are important too. - To be a response and a consequence when people muck up and break the law, that is incredibly important. But alongside that, we need to ensure that we are working multi-agency with community. - Tinetti's seen the impact of inequality. A former principal of Merivale School in Tauranga, where the roll was 98% Maori, and it's rated decile one. - I worked on the front line with families who were related to gangs in the area, and I'd have to say that not one of my parents wanted the same future for their kids. - Tinetti wants to focus on changing that future and claims the government has the job underway. - We have to create a pathway that's a more positive pathway for our young people than what we currently are. And I think that, that work is definitely being done. - It's an uphill battle in this by-election for the Minister for Women and Internal Affairs. A 22% share of the vote would be better than many previous Labour candidates have attracted in this National stronghold. A tough task made even tougher by testing positive for COVID-19 a week ago. - It's a whole week being out of campaigning, and to be fair, for the first half of that week, I couldn't even concentrate on campaigning, cos I was really sick. - No such setbacks for the ACT candidate Luxton, pushing full steam ahead, winning supporters at his campaign launch. - I think he's lovely. But he's got a long way to go to be as good as his leader, though. - Brand David Seymour is a popular drawcard, but it's no guarantee of votes. - So are you guys voting in this by-election? - Luxton is a builder seeking the beehive. When I called you earlier this week, you were busy pouring concrete. That's not your typical path to politics. I mean, do you think you're qualified for this job? - Oh, yeah. I mean, what do we want for the representation of New Zealand? And we need to decide what that is, and I think it's real people. - And building up Tauranga is top of his list. - Tauranga has suffered because we've been put in the bottom drawer by the blue party and written off by the red party. So we never got the infrastructure we need. - Infrastructure at the heart of the contest in Tauranga. - The top priority is around roading and infrastructure. - The investment is happening, and we're going to see some major changes in this city. - And failure to deliver what the city needed saw the city council removed. For the past two years it's been run by commissioners appointed by the government, not the people. Some say democracy here has died. - Remove the commissioners and get us back to a democracy would be the number one priority in Tauranga. - And several candidates want the commissioners gone. - When I knock on doors, there's a lot of ratepayers out there that say they want local democracy back. - If they really believe that they have a plan that will provide Tauranga what it needs, then they should resign their commission and run in a democratic election. - Commission Chair Anne Tolley has heard the criticism. - I perfectly understand that, and I don't think any of us commissioners want to be here permanently. We see that this is just a moment in time. - She says she'll work with whoever wins Tauranga on fulfilling the city's needs. - Mainly transport infrastructure, mainly focussed around what is important, not just to Tauranga, but important to the whole of New Zealand. And that's access to and from the port and then the quality of life of our residents here. - Tolley's met with all the by-election candidates, all of them, except for one. The National candidate didn't take you up on that offer. Are you concerned by that? - Well, I do know that he had his deputy leader in town with him that day. And a good candidate always does what the leadership tells him to do. - ACT's candidate did meet with Tolley, despite a controversial comment comparing her to Marie Antoinette. 'The power has gone to her head,' said Luxton, 'and we say off with it.' Do you stand by using that choice of words? - Yes, of course I do. Clearly, I'm not advocating violence for people. This is` you know, it's concerning that some people have played up on that. - I understand that. And I understand it's a metaphor. But we have just had a protest outside Parliament where people were calling for politicians to be beheaded. So was that an appropriate choice of words? - Yes. Yeah. Well, like I say, she's the Marie Antoinette of Tauranga. And I stand by my statement that we need to remove that power. - Regardless of what's going on at Council, the by-election is a chance for voters to have a say. And though Tauranga has an early favourite, nearly a third of voters are undecided as early voting opens today. - Connor Whitten there reporting from Tauranga. If you've got a news tip, get in touch with us. - We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, or you can email us at nation@tv3.co.nz. - E haere tonu nei ` still to come ` Analysis of our poll numbers this morning with panellists Scott Campbell, Hayden Munro and Matthew Tukaki. - Plus, why have Maori ministers been on a hard-sell Budget roadshow? Three of them join us live. I'm joined now by our panel, PR consultant based in Tauranga, Scott Campbell, former Labour Party campaign manager Hayden Munro and chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki. Tena koutou. Thanks for joining me, gentlemen. Let's go. National support in Tauranga rebounded to normal Tauranga levels, really. Is that hardly surprising, Scott? - Yeah, not surprising at all. And I think, in fact, probably National could almost sit quiet and do nothing for the rest of the race, and they'll win that seat. I think from a Labour point of view, that number is actually not a bad number. I would've probably expected it to be lower than what it currently is. - Really? OK. I do think, though, that what it shows is probably a bit of a feeling about the Labour Party as opposed to Jan Tinetti. Because you know, she's obviously, you know, at home isolating at the moment. But what I saw during the campaign trail, before the last election, was this real buzz around the Prime Minister, and you don't have a lot of that around Tauranga at the moment, so I think it's more poll of that. - OK. All right. Well, let's just look at the Labour context for the last few elections. And so you can see there. 2014, 14.4%. Bumping in 2017, really bumping last time the year you're talking about there` Jacinda Ardern's star power, and then dropping away. Hayden, I mean, you were part of the 2020 campaign. What do you read into those results there? - Yeah, I think what we're seeing is really kind of a bit of a return to normality. I mean, you know, a resurrected Sir Edmund Hillary couldn't Tauranga for Labour, right? Let's be honest about that. That was just never gonna happen. But what I think you see in these numbers is just what you've seen in other polls, which is that 2020 was a bit of a blip. MMP elections are always close. They always have been. They always will be. The government` next year, Labour's gonna have to go out and fight for every vote. And I think this by-election's a reminder of that. - Should Jan Tinetti be concerned that, you know, she can't win the seat? Cos she's a government minister; she gets a whole lot of profile. Was that just how Tauranga rolls, Matthew? - I don't think we should blame Jan Tinetti for the result. I think what we're seeing is an electorate where you can guarantee a month of Sundays National are gonna win. You're right, the candidate doesn't need to show up, doesn't even need to meet with Anne Tolley, a former whanaunga of his from the National Party. I think the other story is I was surprised not to see a bump from ACT. They've been pouring a lot of resources into the electorate, and I think what we're seeing is the voter ACT more generally` and this will probably happen across the country` falling back as those votes return to National. And the other surprising thing for me is` Well, actually, it's probably not a surprise. No wonder Winston read the tea leaves and decided not to tip his hat. I mean, because I think the electorate has solidly returned to being blue. I don't think that's a reflection on Jan or her mahi in the electorate. - Right. So, Hayden, can we extrapolate anything about the general election from this particular result? - Yeah, I think what this shows is that, as I said, all MMP elections are close. Next year will be close, and there's precedent for that, right? If you think about` Labour had that huge win in 2002, then 2005 was right down to the wire on the night. It could've gone each way. And I think that Labour next year will have a real fight on their hands. And as I say, they'll have to go out and fight and win every vote. - Right. I just want to talk Te Pati Maori. But before we do that, let's` We polled Tauranga residents about whether their city is racist, and we showed that earlier. Here it is again. So, I mean, this is 432 people, but 32% agreed, and 52% disagree. I mean, Scott, you live there. How do you view that result? - Oh, disappointingly, to be honest. - Disappointingly? - Well, it just` I guess it reinforces a bit of a feel on the ground. Is Tauranga racist? I love our city of Tauranga, and most of the people in that city are great people and hardworking and lovely people. But is there an element of extremism? Absolutely there is. We live in Matua. And we got delivered to our letterbox, at one point, a pamphlet, which was ` 'It's OK to be white.' And all of this written by, what we now know, was an extremist group. It's not a nice feeling. But what I do think, is the demographics are changing and Tauranga is changing with it. And I hope that, through investment into the city, that we'll be able to show that the city actually has got opportunity. It's not just racist. We have NIMBYism. It's been a massive problem. As you saw through Connor's story, the lack of investment over the last 15 to 20 years has been because people just don't want to pay for them. - Tauranga is shifting from being a rest home for the elderly. Let's be brutally honest about it. I come from Tauranga as well. I love my city. Not everybody in Tauranga is racist. But I tell you what they are ` they're deeply conservative, and they like to lock themselves in this little bubble and pretend that the world isn't catching up with anybody. The reality is, in Tauranga, you have a museum dedicated to Rhodesian soldiers. You have young people out there putting posts up on Facebook with swastikas behind them, doing Nazi salutes. Let's be real about Tauranga. Not everybody is racist in Tauranga, but if we don't address the issues in Tauranga, then we can start seeing that behaviour metamorphose` - So Te Pati Maori didn't stand, because I didn't feel it was safe. Hayden, is that why their support is up so much? I mean, because they've gone from 0.35% in 2020, to almost 5%. - I think that's probably more about the fact that, you know, the Maori Party is now represented in Parliament. They're getting a lot more airtime. The 2017 to 2020 term was really their time in the wilderness. Now, you know, Rawiri in particular is a real mastermind at getting good media coverage. And I think that's probably` You would expect to see a lift in their vote off that. - I've just got one last question on that particular poll ` the Greens. So they're halved. Scott, I mean, are they just` they just don't exist down in Tauranga? - No. Uh... (ALL LAUGH) Realistically this is this is an election between National and whether or not people turn up. I think Jan will do a great job in making sure that the Labour brand is there across the electorate. You see her face, but really, the National Party candidate could almost say nothing, and probably better if he does say nothing... - (CHUCKLES) - ...for the rest of the campaign and not get himself in trouble. - Can I just say though, his biggest competition would've been the ACT Party candidate. And I come back to the point I made earlier. I'm interested to see what the return of those traditional National Party voters that shifted over to ACT, to get them across the line in such big numbers at the last election, will look like in 2023. I don't think ACT as the be-all and end-all for the National Party that they think it is. - All right, we're gonna wrap it up there. Thank you so much for your time, Scott, Hayden and Matthew. E whai ake nei ` coming up ` the Chinese foreign minister has gone home without all the Pacific deals he wanted. So what's the problem? Former Foreign Minister Gerry Brownlee joins us live. But first, Labour's Maori ministers on co-governance, roadshows, and Budget spend ups. Labour's Maori ministers have been on a Budget roadshow around the motu, selling their spend up in this year's Budget, justifying the amount set aside for Maori health, trades and training, education, culture and even climate change. All this against the backdrop of a sensitive National korero about co-governance. Joining us now live in studio are Ministers Willie Jackson, Kelvin Davis and Meka Whaitiri. Tena koutou katoa. (ALL MURMUR GREETINGS) Three ministers at the table ` aren't I lucky? Hoi ano, Willie, tuatahi. Condolences to you and your whanau. Mo te matenga o to mama me to papa. Our hearts go out to the whanau. Meka, let's start with you. Why did we need` Why did you need a roadshow, a national roadshow, to sell the Budget for Maori? - So, obviously, it's important that we engage with our people, and that's what we did. A very successful tour, I must say. Over 1200 of our people that we engaged with, over the six-stop tour. But it gave us an opportunity to do both ` drill down into the specific parts of the Budget` - How much did it cost? - Look, that's something that Willie probably could cover, because it was TPK that was hosting it, but` - Willie? There's the question. - Not a lot. Not` not a lot. - Not a lot. - No, no, no. Not a lot. But` - You don't know right now? - No, but it was important. It's part of our tikanga, in terms of Te Puni Kokiri. Kanohi ki te kanohi. Our people should know about the Budget. And that's what we're` It's not just about the putea, it's about information. - What did it cost, though? - Um, well, you should put that question to us beforehand and we would have come back to you with the numbers, because it's not` it's not a big deal at all. - What I will ask is why six cities, why six places? And some of them are way off. No Tairawhiti. Was Tairawhiti in there? No Waikato, Otautahi, one place in Te Wai Pounamu. - Absolutely. - Why those six places? - So, last year when we went around, we were in Christchurch, this year, we're in Dunedin. We were in Napier last year, this year, in Gisborne. So we're trying to go to the places that we hadn't been last year. But there's always a` There's a saying in politics ` when you're repeating your message for the thousandth time, someone's hearing it for the first time. And there are a lot of people who hadn't heard the details about the Maori Health Authority. They didn't know about the putea that Meka got for Maori data. You know, they wanted to know about the Education, the Corrections` - But you didn't really go to Maori communities, like Ruatahuna, the places out in Waikato, people who can't travel to these six places that you went to. - Actually, we did. We went to Ngati Haua, in Morrinsville. We did to Tairawhiti, and like Kelvin said, we're trying to spread it around to regions that we haven't done previous year. And look, overwhelmingly, people were very, very supportive of what was achieved in the Budget. - We even went into a shearing shed and had a hui with Maori farmers. - Willie, you seem happy about that. - Oh, absolutely. Because I think it was` We didn't just go to a breakfast. We went out and met with our people everywhere, and our people came and they appreciate it and they deserve it, and so` This is only our second year doing it, and it was such a success, we'll probably do it again next year, because, you know, it's about time our people, you know` Look, we've been we've been underfunded and under-resourced for years and years and years. So asking how much it costs is ridiculous because we've been so underfunded, and we've so contributed to this nation, that our people deserve for us to go out there, meet with them, and all around the motu. - What did you ask for, but missed out on, for Maori in this Budget? I know $1.2 billion is a lot of money. But what did you miss out on? - Yeah, so, back-to-back billion-dollar budgets. And in fact, over the last three years, it's been 3 billion. - What did we miss out on, though? - Well, we don't go into those conversations because we want to put the, you know, effort into trying to get things that we missed out on next year. But, look, $3 billion over three budgets is a fantastic result for our people. When you consider that the national Maori Party in 2017 got $120 million, we thought that was great targeted funding, but we've got a billion dollars. - Based on the total Maori population ` the estimate right now is 875, which makes us, what, 17% of the total` - 18%. - 18%. So shouldn't we be getting 18%? - Well, this sounds like John Tamihere and Rawiri Waititi have been talking to you. - Closer to you, Willie Jackson. - They've tricked you and Simon over there, because` - No, no, no, but` - Because you` I've got to say this nicely ` you're talking rubbish. - No` - OK? You're talking` No, you are, because Maori providers are only 5%. So you're` What you're thinking was you're thinking, - I'm talking about Maori people. - Because Maori people get it through the main spend, so what we're talking about is 1.2 billion, in terms of targeted funding, which goes out to about the 5% of Maori who are out there. 88% of our people use mainstream. We get them all with the other spend. So we have two types of strategies. So you've got to stop believing the Maori Party hype and nonsense, where they start saying, oh, you know, there's 800,000 Maori` - That's another point, because shouldn't we be getting` What's an equitable stake? - What we're getting is 10 to 15 times more than we ever got. And so that's why Kelvin said ` 120 million? We're getting 10 to 15 times more. 3 billion in the last three years. So much more. Is it equitable? Is it enough? No. But we don't want to break the country. We're on` We're on a bit of a journey here, just like Mahuta and O'Regan. They took 170 million. They could have taken 15 billion. But we are aroha people. And we'll work with the people and we'll run two strategies. Not everyone goes to kohanga reo, kura kaupapa. So we have to get all those Maori who are not involved in Maori strategies. And so 1.2 billion gets the 5-7% of Maori providers. We get the rest with the main spend. So, please stop that. I never want to hear that question again. - Well, I'm going to ask you next time, OK? Meka Whaitiri, Meka Whaitiri` I'm going to bring Meka into the conversation. Let's see. This week, you announced some good funding around Maori Climate Action, the Maori Climate Action Platform, as well as funding for that. Why do we need a Maori Climate Action Plan, for Maori? Aren't Maori already leaders in that area? - So, here's the deal. Adverse weather events, Oriini, particularly coastal communities, of which I come from, in the Tairawhiti, means that a lot of our communities are exposed. They've come to the government, the government's listened, and we've putea in this year's Budget to work alongside our communities. Our Maori hapu communities, Northland, in his` in Kelvin's area, Tairawhiti, my area, and south` and South Island. So this putea of 35 million, plus 30 million, is a commitment to working with our Maori communities around preparing ourselves for resilience in our communities. - And to enhance what Maori are already doing. - OK, so why is Te Taumata, the Maori trade group, calling for a hui with you and James Shaw about this? They're upset about the removal of the exotic trades from the trade` Emissions Trading Scheme, which they say will impact heavily and be a missed opportunity of billions of dollars. How do you answer that? - Well, can I say that, you know, $1.2 billion, there's still going to be people out there that said, oh, it's not enough here, we` our group should have got this, our group should have got that` - This isn't about that. This isn't about that, though. Go back to Meka, the question really is, these people ` Maori trade group, Te Taumata ` are saying that this is actually going to impact quite heavily on what is potential on Maori land. It strips away Maori landowner rights. - And this government has been actively engaging with forest owners ` Northland, Tairawhiti, Te Aroha` - Was there enough consultation with Maori? - Well, we've got a real urgent climate change challenge on us and we want to make sure` and this Government has been actively engaging. Like you said, we'll meet with these groups as we meet with all our iwi groups, around ensuring that iwi's rights and interests around preparedness and access for funding through this government has actually been met. - And it's not` It's not over yet. We were with the Minister and with James the other day. It's not over. We're meeting with Maori groups this week and it's an argument about exotics and natives. We get it and we'll talk with them about it. It's far from over. We understand the arguments. There's some fair arguments there. - Yeah. - Just give us some time. We can't do everything. Just remember, we're called racist and separatist by Simon's mates in the ACT party, and` - All right, all right` - And we're called racist and we're called too slow and dragging the chain by the Maori Party. So, we're somewhere in the middle. - You are stuck in the middle. Speaking of being stuck in the middle, Willie, where's the UNDRIP ` for those who don't understand ` but where's the plan for the UNDRIP? - Well, it's a good question. I just got the draft yesterday from our team working on it. - What can you tell us about it? What's in it? - Well, nothing. - You haven't read it. You haven't read it yet. - I've gotta have a read, and, The Nation, you know, we'll see what sort of invites we get coming forward. - Well, it is a serious and sensitive korero, really, about co-governance. - Absolutely. - There's a lot of misunderstanding and misconception about what co-governance is. Some assume that it's co-government. How would you explain it? Like, simply. How do you simplify that? - It's about opportunity. It's about partnering up. It's about two groups working together in terms of accountability and going forward together. It's about a partnership. And Kevin might want to... - I think we've got to demystify it for people, because there's the belief out there in mainstream New Zealand that they're going to lose something if Maori` if something changes for Maori for the benefit, you know, in the positive. It's not about anybody` You know, it's not a zero-sum game. It's about all of New Zealand actually working together to improve Aotearoa for all of us. - Willie, is it delayed because, you know, it's become too politically risky for the government, ahead of the election` - You're talking about the declaration. No, it's not delayed. No, they're working well, and I have to have a read of over the next few days, then submit it to cabinet. And, you know, we've gone further with that than any other party. The National Party and Maori Party put it on hold for about five years. So I think it can be good for the nation, and there's nothing to be scared of. Co-governance is only a small part of the declaration plan. - How similar is it to the He Puapua report? - There are points from He Puapua in it, but there's a lot of new things in it. He Puapua was just a policy document that the other side keep using all the time. - But we've all also got to remember that co-governance is not a new thing. It came in under the National government ` the Waikato River Authority. - Te Urewera. Whanganui. - I was talking to Tuku Morgan yesterday. He said, in the 10 years that they've been going, not once has that group that he's been working with had to go to a vote on anything. They've always worked by consensus, and they've always got results. So it's not about sides combating each other. It's about working together for the benefit of everyone. - There's nothing to be scared of, Oriini. It's just not about the lightning in the sky, in the mountains and the sea. It can be about everyday things. You know, when we have such` - You don't have to convince me, Willie Jackson. - You know, people try to get all romantic about it, but, actually, you can apply a co-governance model in a kura. You know, the ACT Party put it in the Auckland statutory board. You know, because we have such huge disparities, why wouldn't you have run it in an everyday process, in employment, on the local boards ` you know, in terms of an economic board ` and try and bring everyone together? It's not about a takeover. It's about working together. - All right. Kelvin Davis, I want to talk to you about the announcement you made for extra funding ` a $23 million package for Oranga Tamariki; for Oranga Tamariki to become the enabler, to enable iwi, hapu, whanau to lead and deliver better outcomes for rangatahi and whanau ` that's what it said. Why are you throwing more money at Oranga Tamariki when it's failing,... - No. - ...with all the failings that have been happening? - No. Well, this is the thing. That money is not going to Oranga Tamariki. It's going to communities, because we want communities` we want them to have the mana, the decision-making and the resources. Now, this $23 million is going to the communities to start the process of how they're actually going to, you know, look after the needs of the children and the whanau in their communities. I was in Hamilton yesterday, having this very conversation with about 80 different providers and saying, 'I want you guys to get together and think about ` 'how are you going to look after the needs of the whanau and children in your area?' And this putea is there to help support them. - So those are your expectations of them for them of this putea, right? - Uh, my` - What happens if they don't deliver on those expectations? - Those providers? - Those providers receiving public funds ` what if they don't deliver what you're hoping they will? - This is what Maori have been asking for. Communities, whanau, hapu and iwi know how to look after their children, know how to look after the whanau. We're just` Oranga Tamariki are becoming the enablers of that to happen, and that's why we're having these conversations with communities. And they're up for the challenge. So, there's going to be a hui ` in fact, that's why I was having the conversation yesterday with Tuku. Tuku put up his hand. Waikato Tainui are going to coordinate the hui with all those providers and say, 'How are we going to do it? 'The Minister's giving us a once-in-a-lifetime chance to do things for ourselves. 'How are we going to do it working together?' - All right. We're running out of time here, but I do want to get through a couple more kaupapa. Meka Whaitiri, Pati Maori are calling for an iwi bank. What do you reckon about that? - Oh look, they've been calling` that's not new. There's been calls years ago, if you remember back in the Mana days, and it didn't get off the ground. Look, what we're focusing here, in this government, is recognising the economic potential around Maori-owned assets, and we're investing in them. This is what's in Budget 2022. - So you don't think it's a good idea? - No, I'm just thinking that there's a lot of issues that I know our people are focusing on, and Budget 2022 recognises. In the data space, in the Maori agribusiness space and also in the employment and procurement space, we are helping Maori small businesses really thrive, you know, coming out of COVID and really addressing our economic recovery through the Maori lens, and I'm really proud of what we're doing in that space. - Willie, you saw our poll on Tauranga. You know, there's quite a bit of korero there. But the thing is ` they're not voting for Labour. What's going wrong there? - Well, they never have. So we're not at all surprised by that poll. What we do know is we've got an outstanding candidate down there. Jan Tinetti serves us proudly. I worked with her, actually, on the Mana Wahine claim. And so it's terrific working with her. No surprises. They probably got a few more percentages because Jan had COVID this week, so... - What, that's gonna boost her ratings, you reckon? (LAUGHTER) Willie Jackson! - So we dropped behind a little bit. But no surprise, and we've got, as I said, we've got a fabulous candidate down there. - Ka pai. Kelvin Davis, as the Minister of Te Arawhiti, Maori Crown Relations, you guys are handling Matariki this year. Thank you very much for making that official, for pushing that through. But the question is ` 60 applications got approved, have you been invited to any of the kaupapa being held` - All of them. - So which one are you gonna pick? - Well, look, OK, so, the main event on the 24th, and then I'm coming up to Te Atatu, because Te Atatu marae always have a Matariki event. That's the Saturday morning. Then I'm gonna try and get up north to the rest of the electorate and see what's going on up there. But Te Arawhiti have been able to put out putea to support all the events that are going on, so that all the regions can celebrate Matariki in their own way across the nation. This is about Aotearoa. It's not about just Maori; it's about us as a nation. - Yeah. Willie, what are you doing for Matariki? - Well, I'm like him. We've got invitations everywhere. But I think it's wonderful. And, again, you should thank the Maori caucus and the Maori ministers for driving` - I will thank Rangi Matamua for the idea. - We love him too, absolutely. He's our leader on this, no doubt about it. But it takes a brave and courageous government to take these sort of things up, so thank us for driving it and thank our Prime Minister and our pakeha colleagues who've embraced it too. And National have gone along with it, cos they could see, 'Oh, the public quite like this.' - Well, thank you for your time this morning, ministers. - Kia ora. Thank you, Oriini. - To all of you, thank you very much for taking up our offer. It's been a while, Willie. - And you're going well. You're going well. - Thank you very much. - Well done. We're proud of you. (CHUCKLES) - Taro ake, e te iwi ` up next ` what did our panel think of that korero? Plus ` is National overreacting over China in the Pacific? Gerry Brownlee joins us live. We're back with our panel now. Scott Campbell, Hayden Munro and Matthew Tukaki. Kia ora, guys. Matthew, let's start with you. What did you make of the minister's korero? A lot going on there, but what did you think? - Well, I think overall, I mean, you've got to go out and sell to your people, right? You've got to go and sell to your constituents. So, ka pai them. I mean` And they are right. I mean, they've been able to secure billions of dollars in additional spending for Maori over the last couple of years. The real rubber hits the road, though, when you start seeing it converting into programs. So I think you're right. What are our Maori whanau, in those regional, provincial communities, what` what are they looking for? What do they want? I actually think, when you have a look at those visits that they've been going around town on, it's also how they're displayed on where we now gather our information. And I've seen the videos and the interactions on social media, so there might have only been 1200 people in the room, but bet your bottom dollar they got to Auntie Di over there in Hauraki as well, through the magic of social media. So I think there's been that real push to not only sell the Budget, but to get a message out there much more broadly than we've seen. - Absolutely, engage, you know, in meaningful conversations with the people on the ground, in Maori communities especially. Hayden, what did you make of the fact that, you know, they can't come up with the costs? Obviously, they wanted the question before the show but, you know, justifying that the amount of spend on a roadshow, is it necessary? Did they need to? Or is it a waste of money and time? - Yeah, nah, I think voters and people in New Zealand have a real expectation that, in a small country, you'll get to see your leaders up close. I think it's` And that's what's great about living in a small country like New Zealand. So I'm a big fan, actually, of politicians getting out of the Beehive, going to` going around the country, meeting people face to face. And I think that it's good that they go out and sell this message. They` they rightly, I think, are proud. They got a lot of money in the Budget, a lot of programs, and I think it's good that they go out and sell that message and let people know. - A hot potato right now, Scott, is the korero around co-governance. Sam, Willie ` of course, you heard this morning ` says he's received the plan. He hasn't read it yet, not thoroughly, but it will be, I suppose, coming out at some point this month. But in terms of the korero going around, how should the government be communicating this concept, this kaupapa? Because it's already flared up. There's a lot of tension and fear around co-governance and what it means. - Yeah, I think doing what they're doing at the moment ` out on the road and talking to the people ` I think it's dispelling that myth that it` that this should be feared. The Waikato River and co-governance around that ` that's been there for almost 10 years, I think, if not longer, and it's delivering good outcomes. It's not something to be feared. They'll have to do a good job on taking everybody on that journey with them. - Yeah. - I think also, though, showing that, you know, what's good for Maori is actually good for everybody. And I think, as Minister Davis said, he talked about the fact that providers are going to be the ones actually delivering the services. You know, Maori have been calling for that for a long time and if you look at the other side of the parliament they'll say, 'Well, you know, 'taxpayers know how to spend their money best.' Well, this is essentially what the government's doing. They're saying, well, providers, you go and deliver the services, rather than us at the centre do it. And there can only be a good thing for Maori. - Can I say, there's a mythology about this, and we need to` we need to really focus our attention on it. Co-governance is not co-government and I think what you're doing` You see the opposition parties, in particular the ACT party, who are putting this narrative out there that somehow, run for the fields, run for the trees, everyone be scared, the Maori are coming. Well, actually, no, that's not true. If you have a look at the Maori Health Authority, for example, if we are able to lower cardiovascular disease rates, kidney disease rates, renal failure, liver disease, cancer and all the rest of it, because quite frankly, not anything` nothing has really worked to date with the current system, then surely, that's got to be good for the country. More Maori, living longer, are productive people and citizens and taxpayers of the country. But they don't want you to hear that story. They just want to scrape that bottom of the barrel. And I want to mihi to my friend Simon here. I know he's not in bed with David Seymour every 5 minutes. - Of course. That picture in my head... A horrible picture to paint, Willie. - It's too early on a Saturday morning. - That's an important point. - I want to ask you, Hayden, how would you facilitate such a robust discussion on a national level? Because at the end of the day, everyone is agreeing that it should be a national discussion ` like, across the board, not National Party, but for everyone to have a robust discussion. What would you suggest? - I think there's two things the government has to do. The first is they do need to demystify co-governance. It isn't co-government. And I think the second point is, they do need to more aggressively call out what is, frankly, race-baiting politics from the opposition, because we're all standing here and saying, oh, there's all this concern about co-governance. The fact is, the National Party, the fifth National government, the John Key government, brought in a lot of the current co-governance arrangements. They didn't have a problem with it then. It wasn't until they were in the doldrums of Opposition, it wasn't until Judith Collins was politically desperate, that they discovered their fear about co-governance and they have been deliberately rarking it up. And ACT has been doing it deliberately to frighten Pakeha voters and to turn them against Maori. And that` I think the government needs to be much more aggressive at calling that out for what it is, which is really shoddy, disappointing politics. - All right. We're going to have to leave it there. Thank you very much for your time and your patience and energy. Pena koutou, tane ma. Have we been overreacting on China in the Pacific? We're back after the break with former Foreign Minister Gerry Brownlee. from the 10 nations that tried to sign up. - So why is the Opposition still calling for our Foreign Minister to do more? National's Foreign Affairs spokesperson Gerry Brownlee joins me now. Gerry Brownlee, thank you very much for your time this morning. So you have called out Nanaia Mahuta for not spending enough time in the Pacific. She's been talking to China's ambassador here. Isn't that more important? - I think you've got to look at it in the context of the contest that appears to be developing in the Pacific and has largely emerged since the Solomon Islands announced their bilateral` sorry, yeah, bilateral arrangement with China that included some aspects of security. So you have the United States with their Indo-Pacific Economic Framework document before Pacific governments at the moment, and then the whistle stop tour right on the heels of that by Minister Wang Yi with his Common Development Vision, modified now into respectful and mutual vision. And they're two very, very contrasting documents, in my opinion. One is non-specific, that's the US document, and leans heavily on the past. The Chinese document is extremely explicit and has some very, very attractive options in it for Pacific nations. And I think if you look at what's happening, you look at the way the Chinese economy is developing and its influence around the world, you're potentially seeing the biggest geopolitical shift in the Pacific since the arrival of Captain Cook. - All right, so` - And I don't think sitting back in New Zealand and saying, look, we've got good relationships with the Pacific, we can rely on those and wait for the Pacific Island Forum ` for which a date has not yet been set ` to get a better understanding. - Is she playing it the right way, though? I mean, she says we don't need to act in a way that makes us look desperate. She has been to Fiji already this year. She has had a whole lot of bilaterals this week with Pacific Island nations, and China has gone away without a multilateral deal in the Pacific. - Well, the deal hasn't gone away. And, let's be clear, it wasn't on the table when the Foreign Minister went to Fiji. And I think you contrast it with Australia, where the new Foreign Minister was on the plane within hours of being sworn in. That arrangement wasn't put together post-election. The Australian DFAT, the equivalent of our MFAT, would have had that well-organised beforehand, because they could see the need to get into the Pacific, to have a greater understanding of what Pacific governments were thinking. Can I be just clear? I'm not being critical of China for what they've put on the table. I think that the failing is that because we haven't recognised some of the needs and when you look at, for example, two and a half thousand university scholarships being offered to the Pacific by China over a five-year period, where are we on that? We used to be in that sort of space. I don't think we are at the same space now. - Well, I mean, so you were you were the Foreign Affairs Minister for about five months. I mean, did you travel to the Pacific much to foster those relations when you were the Foreign Minister? - Yes. It was the very first offshore visit that I made. And I think that it is` partly because, as a government we could see the need to have a closer relationship with the Pacific. And it was in conjunction with an aid programme that was changing much more to the development aspect of it than just the simple grants for various bits and pieces projects. - So China has not secured its multilateral deal. It seems that the Pacific Island nations felt rushed. So are we overreacting? Should we just not be more confident in the Pacific Island nations to act as sovereign nations? - Oh, look, to be very clear, I think Pacific Island nations are well lead. And there's good people in leadership roles, both in government and their various oppositions` - Because there is the risk that we can be paternalistic. - The deal has not gone away though. - Yeah, I understand it. But there is the risk that we can be paternalistic. - No, I'm not being paternalistic, and I think... That is` That is a problem, and I think has existed` One thing I think is a contrast between the two documents that are on the table would be that the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework has got a slightly colonialist flavour to it, as opposed to the much more partnership-based, respectful-based, put on the table by China. All I'm saying is that, you know, New Zealand is a Pacific nation as well. And we need to understand exactly what it is that China is attempting to do, what the reactions are from the civic governments ` You learn that much more by being in direct contact as opposed to waiting for forums to come together, or for that matter, through various Zooms or third party's ambassadors. - From what you're saying about the Chinese deal, it sounds very attractive. So are you predicting that China's going to be back on the ground soon and that, you know, the Pacific Island nations are going to be very tempted to do this? - Well, they've already modified the original Common Vision to a document that talks about, you know, cooperation and mutual respect. It's got many, many aspects to it that, you know, most notably, I think, are the people-to-people contacts and large numbers. Two and a half thousand university places, 3000 vocational change places, numerous medical staff going into the Pacific. And of course, the various training opportunities they're arranging also, or want to arrange, for diplomats and for others in government. It's not going to go away. That's my point. - Right. - And that there is going to be a need for us to understand to what extent some of those opportunities are going to be taken up. You know, if you put two and a half thousand Pacific young people into Chinese universities over the next five years, and then successively, that will cause some degree of cultural shift. - So you` OK. - I think that's what we're perhaps not understanding as well as we should. - So you've been a bit more critical of the framework that the US has put together, the IPEF. But the Prime Minister's meeting with Joe Biden this week seem to indicate that we are drawing closer to the US in the Pacific, especially some of the language about military presence in the Pacific. Are you concerned that that is not the right way to go? That we're not being close enough to China to influence their needs in the Pacific? - Oh, look, start with the point that China is our biggest trading partner. Millions of New Zealanders go to work every day with some aspect of their work related to the Chinese economy. So we are we are very much in a close relationship with China in that regard, and I think a respectful one that allows us to raise some of the questions that I have over the last couple of weeks. The US don't have a trade deal with us, but they are nonetheless significant trading partner. And for New Zealand, trade provides us a lifestyle far in advance of anything our domestic economy could do. So we need to make sure that we do have good relationships with all the big players around our region. - So are we doing that correctly at the moment? Because it seems after this week's visit to the US that we are edging more towards the US and have concerns about China. Is that just going to skew us towards the US and cause problems for our trade relations? - Look, I can't predict that. All I can say is that we have a good, open relationship with China that we've had for nearly 50 years, in fact, 50 years this year. And we have, obviously, in the last 15 to 20 years, increased our level of trade. The United States is not open to that same level of trade with us or with any of the Pacific nations. And I think that creates a little bit of a difference, a significant difference, because in the end, just like New Zealand governments, the Australian governments, or US governments, both the Chinese government and the Pacific Island governments want what's best for their people. And you look at the document that's currently on the table, it's compelling. And if there is going to be competition, we need to know exactly what the nature of that competition is. - OK. Gerry Brownlee, the Foreign Affairs spokesperson for National, thank you so much for your time this morning. Gerry Brownlee there. All right. We're back with that panel, Scott Campbell, Hayden Munro and Matthew Tukaki. Let's talk prime minister meeting Joe Biden this week. Hayden, what did New Zealand actually get out of that? - Yes. I think the whole trip has been a huge success, actually. A lot of Kiwi companies that went over with the PM have signed deals. In terms of the one-on-one time with the president, pretty amazing to have that extended by so long. There's clearly a rapport there. And that's good for the country's diplomacy. I think the most important thing, actually, that I think was discussed was the possibility of Fonterra maybe getting to help America with their baby food shortage. - Oh, the crisis, yeah. - Shortage, yeah, shortage at the moment. That'd be huge for New Zealand, if that comes off. - So really good for trade, good for the image, internationally. Matthew, will Jacinda Ardern's popularity there help her here at all? - I'm not too sure if we're going to see a conversion of the polls, but you know, when you send your prime minister overseas, they have one job and that's to sell the country. And there's just no doubt that she did that one job. And I think she executed really well. And not so much the Harvard speech, but probably more so the talk shows and getting on the air, and her timing, sadly, was also right on point, in terms of what unfolded in Texas. - Yeah. - So I think she did that one job, executed it well. Will it convert into the polls back here? No, because, you know ` New Zealanders, stop being little bubble people. You know, stop being so small-minded. (PANEL LAUGHS) - We're part of a bigger world. Get out there. - Yeah, I know, but when you're faced with a cost of living crisis, Scott, I mean, that's what you're going to focus on. You know, can I afford my block of cheese and my litre of petrol. So it's not going to help. - Oh, probably not, as far as a bounce in the polls, but it's a good look to have the Prime Minister sitting next to the president, as far as a photo opportunity goes. And I think that, as both of my colleagues have said, selling the country to the international market is good for her. I think what happens now that she's back and how she converts that into, I guess, the collateral at home with the people at home and expresses some of these deals that might have been done overseas. - Selling it. - Selling it. - Selling us overseas and selling it to the locals. - Well, she does well. She does well on the international stage, right? And I think we've always seen that. What people will look at are some of those comments made at the Harvard speech and go, well, actually, how does that fit, when I'm sitting at home worried about whether or not my card's gonna decline at the dairy tomorrow. You know, how does that actually impact on me? And I think that's her challenge now. - Right. OK. Speaking of challenges, doesn't Nanaia Mahuta have a challenge at the moment, Hayden? I mean, she has been criticised by ACT and by National for not getting up to the Pacific quick enough and enough` enough times, as well. - Yeah, I think those attacks are pretty simplistic, to be honest. I mean, you know, this government has tripled aid to the Pacific over the last three years and I think that's much more important. You know, foreign policy is not a video game. You don't insert a set number of tokens, you don't have a set number of meetings and other countries start doing what you want. I think it's much more nuanced than that. - I think the only part on that, I would say, is we talk about our relationships being really strong and you can't do relationships sitting in Wellington or in Hamilton. I would have expected that the foreign minister got on a plane and went to Fiji. At least even just have some face time. I don't think we need to` - She has been there, but it was nine weeks ago, and has the landscape changed dramatically? - The newly appointed Australian Foreign Minister jumped on a plane, went straight away. I don't think it looks desperate. It just keeps the relationship going. - I think we've got to be careful about drawing comparisons with what Penny Wong did in Australia. Australia were dying in the ditch in the Pacific. Nine years of the Morrison-Abbott-Turnbull government invested very little into the Pacific, in terms of relationships. They had no other option but to jump on that plane and scoot and boot it really quickly. - So is it Australia's fault that there's a vacuum there` - It is. It is. - And China has come in? - It is. Australia has been disappointing in their engagement in the Pacific, and that's left New Zealand carrying a much heavier load and larger burden. But here's the other thing too, Nanaia Mahuta should not get involved in megaphone diplomacy and that's what has gone on in the Pacific that's caused China to seize the opportunity as the Morrison government is being turfed out, as the Albo government is coming in, they've seen that opportunity, and we saw that, because the draft trade documents and bilateral agreements or whatever you want to call them, they were an absolute mess. They've been rushed to the last minute. They were drafts only. China was looking to seize a moment. They didn't quite get across the line. - But they'll be back, right? - They'll be back. But we've got to be ready for that. And that's why the Pacific Island Forum that's coming up, I think, in a couple of weeks, is going to be so critical. So we keep our path right. - OK, but is there a risk here that we're going to be paternalistic and tell the Pacific Island nations what to do, Hayden? - Yeah, and I think that's kind of the point that Mahuta's been making, is that it's not about just showing up one day and telling people what to do. You have to build those relationships over years, and that's what they've been doing. - All right. I just` Quickly, one minute left, I want to talk Christopher Luxon's tribute in te reo to rangatira Joe Hawke. He got trolled for that on social media, didn't he, Hayden? - Yeah, I think it says something pretty disappointing about where the base of the National Party is. You think, five years ago, Bill English gave a speech at Ratana entirely in te reo, and was applauded widely for it. I think that, you know, the race baiting stuff around He Puapua has really` it's been a poison through the body politic and it's rarking people up unnecessarily. - And yet, Christopher Luxon, when asked on the AM programme whether, you know, critical comments about the te reo, are they racist or not, Matthew, he refused to actually say it. - I think Chris needs` I texted Chris about his Facebook post and I said, 'Good on you, son, 'and keep going. It was respectful to a rangatira who had made a significant contribution 'to the nation as a whole. So keep that line.' But also, Chris, stand up and push back. When these comments come from your traditional National Party base, if you really want to change the conversation, if you really want to win back the hearts and minds of middle New Zealand ` what do they call them? The middle squeeze, squeezed middle, something. - (LAUGHS) - I think they've got one liners for Africa. But you know, if you want to win those hearts and minds back, you've got to stand up like the rest of us are, And now push back. - I'm going to cut you off, Scott, because that's all the time we've got. Thank you so much for your time, to the panel, Scott Campbell, Hayden Munro and Matthew Tukaki. And that does conclude our show for the week. Don't forget to send us your feedback and story ideas and please keep safe this long weekend. We will see you again next weekend. Noho ora mai. Captions by Able. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - This show was brought to you by the New Zealand On Air Public Interest Journalism Fund.