- And I'm Rebecca Wright. Nau mai. Welcome to Newshub Nation. On the show this week ` tension and unity at the Pacific Islands Forum. Minister Aupito William Sio joins us from Fiji. - Life and death on the front line ` an emergency doctor and epidemiologist on the new COVID wave. - And David Seymour announces ACT's new policy on gangs, but does it have a fatal flaw? www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - But first today ` grief and shock in Japan as Shinzo Abe, former prime minister, was shot dead while giving a campaign speech in the city of Nara on Friday. - Abe remained a towering political figure in Japan and its longest-serving prime minister until his resignation for health reasons in 2020. - DEBI EDWARD: Shinzo Abe was mid speech when, suddenly, there was a loud blast,... (GUNSHOT) ...followed by a second,... (GUNSHOT) ...and the former prime minister fell to the ground. His assassin was quickly captured by police, dropping what appeared to be this crude homemade shotgun. CPR was attempted at the scene before Mr Abe was airlifted to hospital. The high-speed train was the fastest way for Mrs Abe to reach her husband. She walked with purpose and remarkable composure as she was escorted from the station. Half an hour later, Mr Abe was pronounced dead, five hours after the shooting. - (SPEAKS JAPANESE) - This footage shows the shooter approaching him from behind and firing his weapon. The 41-year-old in custody is a former member of the Japanese Self-Defense Force. He told officers he was unhappy with the former prime minister and wanted him dead. 67-year-old Abe was perhaps Japan's best-known politician, both at home and abroad. He was the country's longest-serving prime minister, standing down in 2020 due to ill health. World leaders have paid tribute to a great democrat and respected statesman. Shootings are almost unheard of in Japan. Gun ownership is strictly controlled. The murder of Shinzo Abe has caused great shock and grief. He lived and died in politics and will be remembered for making a defining commitment to his country and the world. - Yeah, a deeply shocking day. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has sent New Zealand's condolences following the death of Shinzo Abe. She described him as a generous statesman who was also kind. - Well, next week, Jacinda Ardern will join Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and other Pacific leaders at the annual Pacific Island Forum in Fiji. - Given the tensions in the region, there is a sense that the forum can't come soon enough, and top of the agenda will be strengthening relationships among Pacific partners as fears mount over China's growing influence here. - A few minutes ago, I spoke to Associate Foreign Affairs Minister Aupito William Sio, who is at the Foreign Ministers Meeting in Suva. I began by asking him whether the lack of face-to-face time between Pacific leaders over the last three years has been detrimental to our foreign affairs. - I think so. I mean, there was quite a bit of excitement yesterday to see many colleagues for the first time after two years. But you also have to understand the context of this in the last three years. A lot has happened. The Pacific region has received significant profiling of late ` you know, the Solomon Islands, the unprecedented support that was given with the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic reaction. A lot of interest around the Pacific region more recently, in the last 12 months, from China, from Australia, from Japan, from the US, all profiling the Pacific region. There are big issues with our ocean ` pollution, misinformation, issues around IUUs. So all of that context, you know, brought to the fore how important the Pacific Island Forum coming together face-to-face. - Right. So, going there, you said the unity in the region is a key concern. Why did you say that? - Oh, look, I mean, in the last` I think, 2021, the Micronesian states were unhappy with the election of the General Secretary. That's no secret. And so it was important in light of the complexities of a number of inter-related issues. Unity is our strength. And when we talk about families, it was important to recognise that we needed to use our natural talents and our natural strength of coming together as one. You either come together as a collective or you have to navigate the big, powerful nations of the region on your own. Past experiences have shown that it's difficult for small governments to navigate that. The strength of the region is within the Pacific Island Forum, and that institutional structure is how we must engage with external partners. - So what is the top issue that's been presented since you've been there? - Oh, look, climate change, no doubt. The Boe Declarations indicated that it was the single greatest threat for the region. And those are not theory; those are not on reports ` the Pacific are experiencing that right now. And the leadership in the Pacific region has been stellar in the past and is needed now for global immediate action. The 1-degree goal ` we've seen IPCC reports and how the global community is failing if we don't act quickly on that, and so that is still the single most` security threat to the region. - With a new prime minister in Australia, is there more hope that there's going to be more action from Australia on climate change? Because this was a tension point last time around with Scott Morrison there. - We had the` one of the ministers with us yesterday who conveyed to the forum a renewed approach by Australia to climate change in the region. But there's still the legacy there of the past government that they're going to have to try and win over trust and build good relationships, and I think, so far, that they're on the right track. - So, Australia is doing a lot. Penny Wong has been into the Pacific a lot. Next week, the leaders from the Pacific are coming over, including Australia and New Zealand. Top of the agenda, though, for them might be China's influence in the region. I mean, is the Pacific Islands Forum united about China or not? - Look, I think, what you have to understand` The Prime Minister will come next week with Minister Nanaia Mahuta. I'm here on her behalf. What you have to understand is the relationship with China is not new. You've got some countries who are celebrating 40, even 50 years of those relationships. So navigating that course with China is not new to the Pacific. But there are some significant issues here ` the unity of the region; the viability of its infrastructure, whether it's fit for purpose for what's happening in the region; a new vision for the future ` that's going to be important; and, of course, economic recovery from pandemic. - Nanaia Mahuta was going to be there. She can't, so you're there on her behalf. What was her personal instruction to you? - Oh, there was some issues that she had engaged with leaders and other ministers while she was in Rwanda for the CHOGM meeting, and she wanted me to follow up on that, which I have done, with Solomon Island and with Nauru and with the Cook Islands around undersea water mining. - She placed a lot of importance on this forum, said that all these negotiations and discussions had to be done there. But how do we, as a country, not be patronising when we're trying to sort out the Pacific relations with China? - I think our rhetoric has changed over time, and, certainly, when you have Nanaia Mahuta, who is herself indigenous, and she brings to the job those indigenous values which the Pacific recognise and understand ` values of whanaungatanga, values of manaakitanga, values of arohatanga. We do all of this work. You put aside all our roles as ministers or whatever our roles are. At the end of the day, many of these leaders are my elders, many of these leaders are my brothers and sisters, and so what underpins our relationship now is that` of these strong ties as members of the Pacific region, and you're seeing Australia using the same rhetoric now. - OK. Are those ties strong enough to counter what could be cheap loans and guaranteed infrastructure from other players, like China and like the US? - They` They are. They do underpin our engagement. But, nonetheless, you know, the COVID pandemic has really highlighted significant challenges for small government nations. I'll give you an example. You have, in some governments, you have one or two people who are dealing with work that, in New Zealand, we've got 10 or 20 people dealing with. And so our role here is significant because the Pacific do see us in a different light from other nations. We had, probably, a far better understanding with people like myself, who has the cultural intelligentsia and long-standing relationship ` working relationship, as well as family relationship ` so they can trust that our approach is about the welfare of everyone in the region. - The Prime Minister laid particular importance on the Pacific in a speech in Australia this week. In that speech, she said that investments in the Pacific should be high-quality. To me, that sounds like a dig at China. - No, it isn't. It's not just China. There are a lot of other players that have come into the region. I try to convey to some of our most powerful friends, to say to them, when you see somebody who is drowning, you don't ask them what they need, you don't ask them what design boat they want, you help, and when you help, then you can talk about other matters. And so it's that kind of approach of better understanding the region. But at the heart of our decision-making in the region is the Pacific Island Forum. That is the pre-eminent institutional infrastructure where our interests as a region must be discussed, and it also enhances our strength as a region, because the world looks to us as small island states; our rhetoric in the region is that we are a blue Pacific continent. We're the only oceanic continent in the world ` one of the biggest. - Right. Minister Aupito William Sio, thank you very much for your time this morning. - Thank you very much. - Well, if you've got a news tip, get in touch. We are on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, or you can email us at nation@tv3.co.nz. - E whai ake nei ` life and death on the front line; an emergency doctor shares the realities of the new COVID wave. - Plus ` David Seymour joins us live to announce ACT's new plan for gangs. For weeks, doctors and nurses have been warning that our health care system is in crisis. - With workers battling winter illnesses on top of health reforms, a growing backlog and now a new wave in the pandemic. - The next omicron wave has arrived. - We're seeing the beginning of another big wave. - ..which would likely mean a return to the red traffic light setting. - Last time we were in red, we had over 10,000 cases. - It's the calm caused by the COVID storm. - And GP's are also under the pump. - We need nurses, we need anaesthetic technicians, we need the whole kit and caboodle. - But going into red doesn't sit well with kiwis. - No, I don't think so. - I'm so over it. - Reported cases have increased nearly 30%. - Today, almost 11,000 new cases were reported. - Would gathering limits right now make a marked difference to the case rates that we have? - The new BA.5 variant is taking over. - I spoke to Auckland ED doctor Mark Fredrickson earlier, and he was right off his feet, couldn't leave the hospital, but I asked him to describe what it's like in the emergency department right now. - Our numbers are up slightly, but it is complicated this winter by a number of factors, including significant staff shortages. Our first winter in two years where influenza and COVID have been within our community and it has made things very challenging for our staff and for our and for our patients. But we certainly are here and available to help you if you need our help. - 95% of patients turning up to E.D. to be seen within 6 hours is the target. Are you managing to meet that? - I don't have the actual numbers in front of me at the moment. It is it is a challenge and it's a challenge across New Zealand meeting` meeting those challenges at the moment. And there are a lot of factors that are contributing to that, including, yeah, the complexity of the patients that we are seeing, with real complex medical conditions. COVID earlier a large amount of acute respiratory illness that is presenting to our groups, and certainly our staff sickness and unplanned leave is playing a big role in the difficulties we had in meeting at meeting our targets. - COVID cases are climbing rapidly. Are you going to be able to cope? - We always cope. It's going to be really challenging. I'm extremely proud of all the hard mahi that are staff, medical, nursing, clerical, cleaners are doing to keep to keep our patients safe. We will cope. It's going to be tough. And I think that the key messaging that that we want to get out to the public, one, is we're here for you. If you need us, we will be here for you. - Has COVID complacency become a problem? I mean, what do you want the public to do? - I don't think COVID complacency is a big issue. I think the message that we need, we need to get to get out to everyone is that please get your vaccines, your COVID vaccines, especially of flu vaccines. We haven't we haven't seen flu in New Zealand for two years now, and people are getting sick from it. So those are the real simple measures that we can do. Wear your masks in public spaces, look after each other, and stay safe. - Should there be more public messaging urging people to take responsibility? - I believe there should be more public messaging urging the public to maintain all the the safety measures that we've done over the last two years to keep the community, the patients, whanau, and staff safe. - How is staff morale? I am extremely proud of all the hard mahi and dedication that our staff are showing to looking after looking after our patients, their whanau, and each other. You know, where we're a very close knit team and during these hard times, we all have to stick together to be able to deliver safe and great care for our patients and for each other. - How urgently do you need more staff? The need is always there at the moment for extra staff. So please, if you are a nurse or a doctor or care team who are looking to get a job, we have vacancies at the moment. - So can you assure me if I get sick, I will get help? - I am definitely saying if you are sick, we are here to help you. We will definitely help you. - Dr. Mark Fredrickson there from Auckland Hospital. Well, despite those challenges, the government says a return to red is not being considered. Joining us now to talk about that is epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker Great to have you here in the studio, Michael. Where are we now in the pandemic? - Kia ora Rebecca. Yeah, well, look, we know we've had five months with Omicron. It's very infectious. We're gonna keep getting waves of new variants which are thriving because they're more infectious. And that actually makes them quite dangerous because they infect a lot more people. So we're seeing a doubling now every two weeks, roughly, of cases, hospitalisations ` deaths are up now to an average of 16 a day. So a huge impact on health. - We have tried to protect our health system for the past two years. You know, we went into lockdown. That was our singular sort of focus. But for the past few weeks, we have had the aged care sector, we have had surgeons, we have had EDs were saying they are in crisis, that they are getting overwhelmed. So what` But, that is, we don't seem to be doing anything about it. It's a very hands off approach from the government, isn't it? - Yeah, I think obviously a lot of people are over the pandemic. We all want it to have stopped some time ago, but we can't wish it away. It is a reality. It's` As people say, it's an inconvenient truth like climate change. We have to change the way we live to manage this threat until we get perhaps some very effective vaccines or antivirals in the future. So for the foreseeable future, it is about doing a small number of things very well. And I think the two basics are if you're sick, don't go out. And that applies, that stops all viruses, all infections. And the other one is we have to turn into a mask-using society. Societies that have embraced mask-use are doing very well, like Japan, South Korea. I think the driving metaphor is a good one. You know, you put on your safety belt to protect you. It's a bit like, you know, getting your boosters and vaccines, and you don't drink and drive, and that's to protect everyone else on the roads. And remember, now, you know, roughly a one in a thousand people get this virus are dying from it. So if you go out when you had this infection, you infect your friends and family and other people, you are going to be killing some people just like drinking and driving. So we need to have a massive shift in thinking about this. - You know, just going to say to you, you know, what I'm hearing is that it is up to us now. It is down to our personal responsibility. But how are we doing at that, do you think? Well, I think we need both. Just like to make the roads safe, you have rules. And it's also, I think New Zealanders want to do the right thing, but they also have a strong sense of fairness. They don't want to be the only person in the room wearing a mask. I think we need to know and we need to be supported in that. So if my when my 12 year old goes to school, we give her a very good mask and say, 'Please wear it.' And she comes home and she says, 'I'm the only one wearing the mask in my classroom.' And, you know, obviously she's not wearing it after a while because` - It makes it difficult, doesn't it? - Yeah. - Yeah. You don't want to stand out. And how are we doing at masking? When I go to malls right now, I see a lot of people who have given up. - Yeah, look, I think we need a social norm that you wear a mask if you're indoors with other people who are not part of your family, and that you have to have the mask on the whole time. Now, obviously, that means shifting a lot more social things outdoors, covered areas with good ventilation. You can take your mask off, obviously to have a drink and socialise. Otherwise, we need to be a mask wearing society until we're through the worst of this. And it may be if we get through winter, that will be good. We might have to wear masks for the foreseeable future in indoor environments, but basically it means you can get on with life. You can do everything pretty much, but you need to be wearing a mask now because we have very few alternatives. I mean, boosters are good, particularly if you're vulnerable, and we will get the next generation of vaccines in the future, they will be more effective as well. - Do we need to speed up our next booster round because it's hitting now, isn't it? We know that boosters can be` are available for over-50s, but do we just need to open that right up? - Oh, very much so. Unfortunately, we've seen this hesitancy because a third of adults who are eligible for their third dose haven't had it. So that's what we're hitting. Of course, many of the older people, the more vulnerable, or people with underlying illness are getting the boosters, which is absolutely the right thing to do. - Well, are we covid fatigued, Michael? It feels like we are, and how do we break through that? Given that we're back in a serious position. Well, I think we do need a mixture of regulation, and obviously, personal responsibility. But we need to, I think` Say, a mask mandate for schools, I think is critical, because there's a lot of transmission in that environment. And also, children are great educators. They're wearing the mask during the day. They're very good at picking up new behaviours, and that behaviour also translates into the home-setting. - But the Government does seem to be taking quite a hands off approach, now that the Prime Minister has said we will not go into red again. Has it become` Are they sort of following the sentiment of the nation? Do you think that we're over it, we're fatigued. We don't want to go back to those places? - Yeah, I think so. But in the end, I think in a way, it's not really so much about red or green or amber. It's actually about adopting and actually mandating some specific behaviours. I think that's going to be quite understandable for people. People have got the idea that on a summer's day you put on sunblock and a sun hat when you get in the car, you put on your safety belt. When you go to any indoor event, you put on your mask and you have a mandate to back that up so that you don't feel lonely being the only person in the room with a mask. You say, actually, this is mandated for some settings. - Mask mandates were highly controversial last time. But I want to ask you, what are we looking at here? We are at 10,000 nearly 11,000 cases a day, 500 hospitalisations, are we creeping back up to that 25,000 a day mark that we saw in May? - We could easily get there. Now, it's much harder to predict now, because it's not a blank slate any more. There's a lot of immunity around. It's very hard to model that. And also, we can't learn so much from overseas because a whole lot of countries are seeing this wave, but they've seen several waves now. So it's much harder. In the past, we could see what was happening overseas. We are now so well connected with the rest of the world. We're getting hundreds of infected people arriving here a day from all over the world. So it's hard to know, but it's doubling more slowly. It could get to the same size as the first wave. We could we could have up to 20,000 a day. We could have a thousand people in hospital. We could be back up to 20 people a day dying. But actually, it's bad enough now. I mean, we've got 16 people day dying. If you add that up over a year, it could be 5000 people dead. Yeah, that's more than ten times the road toll. - And if we do get to that 25,000 a day, would you expect to see the government stepping in again? - Well, I think we need to step in now because you can't wait till you reach the peak. You've got to start working on this now because there's a lag from when you slow down transmission to when it does peak. So I'd say we need a mask mandate in schools immediately and we need to think about the other environments where we need to have mask use. And I think focusing on that rather than what colour traffic light we're at, I think people would understand that. there's a narrative that COVID will mutate, that it's already sort of doing this it to become less severe. Is there scientific evidence to back that up? - No. Many of our worse infectious diseases have not got more benign over time. In general they stay fairly consistent. Sometimes they even get worse. But we've seen that with this virus, its virulence, that severity has gone up and down along the way. But in general, it's just getting more infectious or better at evading immunity. And the only reason it's here is because these new sub-variants are better at escaping immunity. And so this is what this virus is doing. It's showing this ability to keep producing new, more infectious variants. And so we need to plan for that and say, actually, vaccines will get re-engineered, just like the flu vaccines to help us get ahead of that, but we have to do more. That's not enough on its own. And when you look at the countries that are succeeding, they are mask-using societies. - Well, Dr. Michael Baker, thank you so much for joining us in the studio here on The Nation this morning. - Thanks for having me. - Well, up next, from Boris Johnson to the crashing COVID wave, we dissect the week in politics with our panel. Brigitte Morten, Shane Te Pou, and Dileepa Fonseka Plus, should IRD be given special power over gangs? David Seymour is here with ACTS brand new policy. former Labour candidate Shane Te Pou, former ministerial adviser to National Brigitte Morten, and Stuff Business journalist Dileepa Fonseka. Tena koutou. Thanks for your time. Sorry, Shane, I know that was a long time ago ` 35 years. - Not quite 35, but, yeah. - Tarred for life. (CHUCKLES) All right, let's talk about something serious. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shockingly assassinated overnight, speaking at a political rally. Is it all the more shocking because Japan's considered so safe and has the tightest gun laws, Shane? - Yeah, they do have the tightest gun laws, and it seems that this might have been a 3D gun or some homemade gun. But assassination, if you look over the historical context in Japan, is not unknown ` normally, knife or similar. But, yeah, this is absolutely shocking. A very popular former prime minister, the longest-reigning prime minister in Japan's history and part of a family dynasty. So all of that is really shocking. - Jacinda Ardern described him as a generous statesman. He seemed to be able to foster relations with every world leader. - Yeah, absolutely. I think he has that world reputation. What I take from these events is, I think, similar to here in New Zealand, we have a high level of access to our politicians. You know, they feel generally safe in our community and not at risk. And I think that's what's concerning. Whenever this happens, and we've had incidences in the UK as well, this puts, always, I think, all our politicians on a little bit of heightened concern that ` is this something that could be happened when they're at a campaign event or out in the community? - Yeah. Good point. Does it show, Dileepa, how volatile politics has become a bit at the moment? - Yeah, well, you do sometimes wonder ` are we entering a new, more-volatile age of politics right across the world? Is it coming as a result of COVID, where people are just a little bit frustrated? You're seeing movements` Even back home, you know, even over here, we're seeing` typically we had these big, long political cycles, and in the last one, we've had a big swing to Labour and then maybe a big swing back ` are we going to go into a period of just one-term governments, similar to what Australia had? We sort of don't know what the political impact will be of COVID and some of these tensions that have built up over a long period of time. - Right. Speaking of tensions, let's talk the Pacific Islands. So, the Pacific Island Forum is underway. The foreign ministers are over there. We had Aupito William Sio on the program this morning. Can you remember, Shane, a time when the Pacific Island Forum has been so hotly anticipated? - Yes, of course. - You can? - Yeah, well, the Fijian coups. - Right. OK. - You know, then you've had destabilisation over in the Solomon Islands over a number of years. Look, I actually think that things are starting to settle down. I think we've got better cohesion between the bigger Pacific powers and New Zealand Aotearoa and Australia with Wong and Mahuta. And I think that the approach that William Sio was taking, one based on manaakitanga, whanaungatanga and arohatanga is the right one in terms of a Pacific context and our whanaungatanga. Also, New Zealand needs to tread a reasonably careful path because, in many respects, we are their colonisers, and our history, New Zealand history, to the Pacific hasn't always been a good one. - No. No, OK. But there is a lot of attention on China. You've just written about this, Dileepa. But it seems that, not necessarily for the Pacific Islands, that they're worried about China, but they're more worried about climate. Are we misreading it? - Yeah, well, I mean, that is the big issue that they put forward. I think that it was the Samoan Prime Minister had mentioned that that was top of their agenda, you know, rather than China. But I think, from New Zealand, when it comes to China, we haven't done a very good opportunity` a very good job of framing exactly what we're concerned about here and what this means from the Pacific point of view. Like, why should you, as Pacific Island countries, be worried about China? Rather than we're worried and you should be worried because we're worried. And I think there's a lot of big discussion to be had about there. You can look across the Asia-Pacific to Sri Lanka and the debt situation there and say, 'Is that going to be repeated in a Pacific island? Is that a potential future?' But, you know, China is here to stay in the Pacific. You know, they've had a long involvement, and they're not going away as well. - Yeah. Jacinda Ardern paid specific attention to China in her speech this week, and she talked about having high-quality investment in the Pacific. Now, I wonder whether that is actually a sort of under-the-rug dig at foreign powers like China. - Yeah, I think, without a doubt, that there is, really, push against China in the Pacific, and I think you're absolutely right ` one of the risks that we have is, this is the Pacific Island Forum, and we are one country within the Pacific, and for us to say, 'OK, the most important thing that you play is, basically, 'your numbers game and this geopolitical chess game.' Actually, what's really important to them is their economic sustainability, the climate change question. So for us to go and say, 'You can't take investments or aid from other foreign powers, 'but we're also not going to step into that space or provide you with any sort of infrastructure' is really unfair. - (CHUCKLES) OK. Let's move on to what's affecting us all right now. It's the next wave of Omicron. Epidemiologists, like Michael Baker, are saying we could get to the 20,000 peak again. Government's saying, 'Nah, we're gonna go to Red.' Shane, is that the right idea? - Yeah, it's politically` (CLEARS THROAT) - Impossible. - Politically impossible. We do have COVID fatigue, so we have to really push the other measures. I need to get my next fourth boost today. We need to start being more vigilant around masking and isolation. - Yeah, but on masking, I mean, Michael Baker saying, Brigitte, mandate the masking, but how are Kiwis going to go with that? - Well, I think we've already got some spaces where people are meant to be wearing masks, and they're not. And so absolutely, in terms of, yes, we can have these rules that come from government, but people are ignoring them. And so what's the point in putting rules in place? And I think that's where you can see the government` they're in this difficult space where they did have a really top-down, very heavy-handed approach to cases when we had much smaller numbers, one or two cases in the country, and now they can clearly see that no matter what they say, generally, people are not going to be listening. - Can I say` Simon` Can I just say, though, where there are mandates in place, for instance, at my boy's school, absenteeism is low. Where they're a little bit laissez-faire, at my girl's school, the absentee numbers are higher. So it does work. - Right. So you're saying masking does work. You know, are Kiwi businesses or anybody else really going to want to have any more restrictions after two years, Dileepa? - What I say about COVID politics is that they can change quite rapidly, like we're discovering, and, yes, at the moment, people are completely over COVID, but how are they going to feel a few months from now if there's workforces where there's just people are getting reinfected? It kind of depends on the path of the virus. - Right, so reinfection. - How often is reinfection happening? How critical` How much of a problem does this pose to businesses and their workforces? How much of a problem does this pose in terms of health and how much do people feel it? And if people do start to feel it, I think that you could potentially see a swing the other way, and maybe that would be the time where you start seeing even popular` - Some support. - Yeah, yeah. - OK. Well, well, speaking of support, Jacinda Ardern was in Australia, talking up New Zealand, and she was asked there by Australian media, Brigitte, 'What's it like being more popular abroad than domestically?' Was there an awkward pause there, an awkward response? - I think without a doubt, because, I mean,, everyone knows that she is applauded on the international stage and that that popularity is not translated, currently, domestically. But I think, for us, we have to applaud the fact that she is out there in the world, she is doing all this work, and I think that we are getting results from her international reputation, and that is something that we should be proud of. - Was she in Australia at the right time, though, Shane? Because` Should she have been at all those events or should it just have been a one-on-one with Albanese and then come home and deal with COVID? - No, look, I think there's been a strained relationship between Australia and New Zealand, even preceding Jacinda Ardern. I think, building up those relationships` And what you remember is when she's over there, she's taking trade delegations, several ministers, lots of business` - Lots of ministers. - Yeah, and lots of business in three of four days on the ground. And what did she do? What did she get? She got a home run in terms of New Zealand folks having a pathway to citizenship. Two weeks ago, lots of people, including yourself, Brigitte, were saying this wasn't going to be done, and it was done. - Yeah, no, absolutely. I was absolutely pessimistic about getting any change in that space. - It's a great win. - Is it? - It is a great win, as in I think it's an historic win, and we'll see how it pans out over the next few months and years. - Do you believe the Aussies? I mean, I am one, right? So do I believe myself? Do we believe the Aussies when they say, you know, it's promises and it's common sense, not only about the citizenship but also common sense about the 501s. - Well, we're catching him at the beginning of his term, so I guess we've got a long time to hold him to account. It's not like he's going to come up` be potentially a change of leadership in a year's time or something, so that's a positive. But I think that it does highlight an interesting issue, which is Australia's the number-one place where New Zealanders go to to work or to move or to immigrate, and this makes that option a lot more appealing, and here we` - Does this have ramifications, though, for our workforce, Shane? - It could have ramifications. And, you know, there are reasons why Australia appeals ` they pay better wages; they have more centralised wage systems; they don't stuff around with their superannuation programme like we have over the last 30 years. So, yeah, it does make it more attractive, but let's also take a minute to celebrate for my whanau that have been living there 30 years. You know, I've got relations that can work in the local state prison system, but can't work in the federal system because they don't have citizenship. There's a lot of inequities there, and we've fixed them. - And there are some horrifying stories, but those have also been preventing people from making that leap. Some of those people, you know, those high wages` - Yeah. Right. Right, so, Brigitte, we're going to lose more of our workforce ` is that the bottom line? - I think we are. We already know ` we are losing them daily as we go, so there's no doubt that we're going to lose more as they get more security over there. So the government has to do more here to make sure that we're actually making it attractive. - I'm going to leave it there. Thank you so much to our panel, Shane Te Pou, Brigitte Morten, and Dileepa Fonseka. Thanks for your time. Before we go to the break, we'd like to make a correction for the record from our last week's panel. Our National Correspondent Paddy Gower said National Party Leader Christopher Luxon voted against abortion, but he didn't. He wasn't in parliament at the time. E whai ake nei ` it's ACT Party conference weekend, and David Seymour joins us next to drop a new policy. Plus ` who's up, who's down online with Digital Editor Finn Hogan? Well, with gangs dominating headlines this year, ACT says it has the answer. It wants to set the IRD on to them. ACT Party leader David Seymour joins us now. Tena koe. Welcome to the programme. - Morena. Good to see you. - Just a month ago, you were on this programme saying that you aren't gonna tax the gangs, that you didn't wanna do that, and now you do wanna tax the gangs. Is this policy on the fly, David? - (CHUCKLES) Um, I think you've taken a bit of licence with what I said. What I` What I pointed out was that the gangs are not paying their share of tax. In fact, specifically what I said is that going back a couple of years, the latest data, a half a billion dollars' worth of P and only $50 million of asset forfeitures by police. Now, that is like... a 10% tax ` 50 million plays 5 million. - Yes. But back then, you weren't talking about taxing the gangs; you were talking about asset forfeiture, that we should increase that. Now you wanna tax them. - I think you're confused about the fact I used tax as a metaphor back then. - A metaphor? OK. - Yeah. So I'll try and make it simpler for you. - That's OK. - Here's the thing. - Mm-hm. - I was talking to someone yesterday who operates an emergency housing motel, a small one. Three of the rooms were filled with grandparents, specifically grandmothers, who are looking after their grandchildren. Why? Because their parents are whacked on P. This drug and these gangs are destroying lives in New Zealand. - They are. - No solution that does not go to the heart of the problem is going to solve it. And the heart of the problem is that it is profitable to sell illegal drugs. So long as that is true, it's going to keep happening. That's why we've gotta get stuck in on tax. - Let's talk about your solution, because you are` Right, so you wanna get stuck in on tax. You want to set the IRD on to investigate these high-rolling gangsters. That's the principle? - That's right. Look, the Inland Revenue Department are the scariest department. They certainly have some power. - Are they? - Well, you could tell most people` - Corrections, Police ` there's plenty of scary departments, I think, to the gangsters. - Well, it's not a competition, but they do have very extensive powers that other departments don't to investigate taxation. And they do have an information sharing arrangement with police and other agencies on gangs. We don't believe they're using it. If you google gangs and IRD, the first result you get is an investigation into a sheep-shearing gang that didn't pay their tax. - OK. - I think we've gotta get the focus on to gangs dealing illegal drugs, ruining lives, and the IRD has powers that we think should be redirected on to them. - What are those powers? - Right now, the IRD, thanks to David Parker at the end of 2020, gave the IRD the power to request information about all sources of wealth that a person has. David Parker, as is his want, has set those powers on what he believes are New Zealand's wealthiest people. Interestingly, they actually went through the NBR Rich List, and we got them to admit this` - Let's talk about the gangs. Let's stick to the gangs, not the high rollers, David. What do you want the IRD to do? - But this is what they did` - No, I wanna talk about what you want the IRD to do. That's what we're here to talk about today ` gangs. - What we want them to do is exactly what they're doing right now to people on the Rich List. The IRD went through the Rich List ` we got them to admit this ` and said, 'We're going to send these people a questionnaire and a survey. 'It's a criminal offence not to fill it out. Tell us where you got all your money from 'so we can design tax law to take it off you.' - So you wanna send a questionnaire and a survey to gang members in the same manner? - We should use exactly the powers that are being used to interrogate New Zealand's most successful business people to the people who do have ill-gotten gains, who are ruining people's lives, and that is New Zealand's gangs. - OK, OK. But we're talking about a questionnaire and a letter from the IRD here ` your own policy. Because the truth is is that you don't actually know how to tax the gangs, so you're gonna get the IRD to do a research project, aren't you? - Well, and if you'd let me explain the purpose of this policy, because when I started saying that this policy is being used on New Zealand's most successful business people` - It's not a policy, David; it's a research project. The IRD is doing research on the high rollers. You are saying you want to do research on the gangs. - We're saying that we want to take this project, which is being directed at legal, successful business people` - Yes, it's a research project. It's not a policy, David. - It is a policy, actually. - Well, no, it's a research project. - So you're saying that what New Zealand is doing or what the New Zealand government is doing to New Zealand's most successful business people... - ...is a research project. - Well, I can tell you it's putting them through enormous burden to be able to fill out huge amounts of information. And I just think if we're going to start getting serious about drugs and about gangs, then actually we should be directing that power of the IRD to request that information that is not available for any other purpose. We should be using that power on the people that are truly gaining wealth unfairly and illegally, and we should use it on them. - David, this is a gang policy. You have accused the government for months now of being soft on gangs, and your big new gang policy is to request information using a questionnaire from the IRD. That is not being tough on crime. - Well, let me put it this way. You are never going to stop the scourge of drugs and the damage that it does while it remains profitable. I can guarantee` - I don't think you're gonna stop it with a questionnaire and a research project by the IRD. - Well, I think, actually, if you don't make it unprofitable, you won't stop it. So let me ask you this question. - Well, I ask the questions here, David. Your policy says the information collected by Inland Revenue can't be used to lock up gang members directly, but the information can be used to improve future policies on taxing gangs. So this will not take one gang member off the street, and it's actually not a policy. It's a sort of direction of a policy. - No, it's not that at all. It is going to the gang members. It is identifying them. It is finding out how much money they've got, where they got it from. And it also says` - You think they're going to tell you that? - Yes, they will. - When they reply to the letter and the questionnaire (?) - Yeah, because if they don't, they get fined. And if they don't pay their fines, eventually, they go to jail. But here's the next issue` - What are you promising voters, David? What is your line in the sand here? That you'll crush these gangs using this questionnaire and a research project from the IRD? - What we're saying is we're going to make sure that they pay their share of tax right now. They are bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars of drugs that are ruining people's lives, and they're getting off scot-free. Now, I put it to you that you're not going to solve that problem until you get to the heart of where they're getting the money, and the IRD has the power to find that out that nobody else does. And I think if we knew that and if we started to target the fact that bringing in illegal drugs and ruining people's lives is profitable, then we could actually solve the problem. Now, you can belittle it. - I'm not belittling it; I am challenging it, because this doesn't appear to me to be a policy; it appears to be a press release. Don't voters deserve better than this on this issue, David? Because this is a serious public safety and law and order issue. Don't they deserve better than a sort of headline policy which is about a questionnaire and a future research project by the IRD? Especially when you're calling the government soft on crime. - It's about using the powers of the IRD, which are the greatest powers that any government agency has to get to the core driver of gangs and drugs, which is that it is profitable. Until we attack that basic issue, we're not going to solve this problem. Now, you might` You can call it` - The core driver from all of the research is not` - Sorry. Excuse me. You can call it as many names as you like. You can belittle it. You can say that it's a research project. What we're doing is we are analysing why there's a problem ` because it's profitable. We're getting stuck into that problem by getting the information that allows us to properly crack down on gangs. If you don't do that, you don't have a solution. So we have got to the heart of the issue and proposed a solution. - Through the tax department. - And the best you can do is ridicule it. - Is it going to stop 60 gang members on bikes beating up and harassing a man, giving him a serious head injury on the Waikato Expressway? Because that is what voters are worried about, aren't they? - It absolutely will, cos you've gotta ask yourself ` why were there 60, and why did they have flash Harley-Davidsons? Because they're doing something that's profitable, and you don't know, and the current government doesn't know how they got that money, where they got it from and how to stop it. We do. We are actually solving the problem. - Well, you don't know. You're asking the IRD to find out, David. - Well, of course politicians use government departments to solve problems. - Thank you for joining us on The Nation this morning. - Thank you. - Stay with us. We're back after the break. What happens on social media doesn't always stay on social media. But are we at risk of importing US culture wars into our politics? - I caught up with digital editor Finn Hogan earlier and started by asking him who's up and who's down online. - Well, good morning, Simon. It's actually Mr. Chris Bishop and Simon O'Connor tied for third place just after the usual suspects at the top. But look, it's not a huge surprise to see Chris Bishop in that position. He's one of the Nats few social media natives. - Yeah, but Simon O'Connor not keeping a low profile, even though Christopher Luxon, his leader, said, take down your Roe v Wade post. - Not keeping a low profile at all, Simon. Simon is actually posting more than pretty much any MP we track on average, but I think he may have learned the obvious lesson here, which is there's no such thing as a personal post when you're a politician. Anything you put on your Facebook page can be front page news the next day. - All right. Moving along, how the various party pages performing? - Well, interestingly, the Green Party, who have been languishing quite far down the rankings lately, have shot up to third place, largely because they've been doing some more pointed posts towards National around the abortion debate, but also some more pointed posts towards Labour. National has given them an opening and the Greens have capitalised. - Yeah, look, if they're making political hay out of O'Connor's abortion post, does that mean we're going to see more American style culture war issues infect our politics? - Look, to a certain extent, America is so culturally dominant that their strife will always wash over to our shores through our screens and social media. It's really important to remember we've got a completely different political environment here and completely different incentives for our MPs. The American two party system really encourages polarisation in a way that our MMP system actually protects us from. Our parties aren't as vulnerable to take over by fringe elements because those fringe elements tend to just break off and form their own parties. Essentially, cultural issues are not as politically potent here because our parties are incentivised to moderate, to compromise, and to meet in the middle, if they're ever going to govern long term. - Let's talk about the social media companies themselves. New Broadcasting Minister Willie Jackson has hinted at moves to force them to pay for content. That's going to be good for us. - Yeah. Well, he hinted at that, we don't really know if it's actually going to happen. But if he does, it could be quite major. It could reverse a very long term and very dire trend in New Zealand because at the end of the day there are half as many journalists working in New Zealand now as there were in 2008. And that is largely, not exclusively, but largely because companies like Facebook and companies like Google have hoovered up all the advertising money that this industry used to depend on. And a move like this, it's not a silver bullet. It's not going to fix all of the issues in the industry, and it could certainly make a difference. - Yeah, but let's face it, we don't have the clout of Australia, and so will Zuckerberg actually listen to Willie Jackson? - He has to. I mean, I think it's important to remember, no matter how much money he has, social media companies are still bound by the laws of the countries in which they operate. If the government chooses to move on this, someone like Zuckerberg has a choice between pulling news content from people's feeds, or actually forking up the cash as he is now doing in Australia. It's also important to remember this is a much different conversation than it was even a year ago. Facebook has haemorrhaged half of the value of the company in the last six months alone. They're also desperate to get some PR wins on the board, so I wouldn't be surprised if the government moves on this. We could see some real change. - All right. Just before we go, as always, the honourable mention goes to... - It is Mr. Chris Bishop, because his post commemorating KiwiBuild birthday, it was very funny and a very timely reminder of some aspirational targets that Labour would probably like us to forget. But he also bumped up the rankings because of another birthday. He's now a new dad. And let's be honest, when you're posting these kind of pics of cute dogs and cute babies, that's basically cheating when it comes to Facebook metrics. So of course, he's getting all the clicks. But congratulations to the new family. But Chris, please keep posting salty takes on social media because I'll very quickly be out of a job if you don't. God knows I'm not useful for anything else around here, Simon. - You've summed it up admirably, Finn Hogan. Thanks very much. - Thank you very much. - Finn Hogan there. We're back with that panel Shane Te Pou, Brigitte Morten and Dileepa Fonseka. Let's just talk about that interview that with David Seymour. What did you think about that, Brigitte Morten. - Well, I think if this policy was announced by the Labour government, that they were going to do a research project looking at a Tax on gangs, the ACT party would have torn to shreds because it's going to do nothing to address the problem that we've got. An almost doubling gang numbers under this government. Tax, you're looking at the tax policy, it's not going to do it. I think, you know, David Seymour really missed the mark and it clearly went about the right political issue, but absolutely not the policy response. - I think, to be honest, it was a little bit cray-cray. Let's just think about it, eh? What he wants to do is he wants to get civil servants who he's rallied against to do the survey. That ain't gonna have the Killer Beez in Otara quaking in their Air Jordans. The other thing is I fundamentally believe that his premise of his argument are wrong. This isn't about productivity. This is about addiction. And we've got to deal with the addiction. And we and we've had 20 years of war on a war on drugs that has not worked. We need to deal with this this issue through a health prism. - Does David Seymour not have a point that if you get rid of the profitability in meth, well, all the profits from meth, therefore, you're going to take away the infrastructure? - Well, how is this going to affect the profitability? You know, requiring an additional administration charge or something, you know, an additional administration from gang lawyers. I'm not quite sure that this is really going to achieve much because, you know, one, they're going to determine how you know, they're going to determine the amount of tax that needs to be paid, and then you have to somehow get it back. And I mean, I think the bigger issue is, and it's something that I think all Western countries have been sort of debating over the last few years, not just with this policy, but with anti-money laundering laws as well, is the best way to crack down on organised crime and other issues like terrorism by looking at it from the financial end? By going to it through the financial system or through the tax system, or is it through enforcing the laws around the actual crimes themselves? And I think whether he meant to or not, I think he's sort of wandered into that debate as well. - Was Rebecca right to challenge him on the issue that, you know ACT runs this hard line about being hard on gangs and yet comes out with this policy, which seems to be not so hard on gangs? - Yeah, exactly. I think, you know, they are really pointing on this really important issue to New Zealanders. we know that New Zealanders are concerned about gang numbers. But you would think that, you know, to counter that, you need something that's quite strong. They have got a range of other policies, choosing to put this particular policy out on conference weekend seemed a little bit strange. - All right. Let's move on to Christopher Luxon. He's been abroad as well as Jacinda Ardern's been abroad. What have you made of the tenor of these speeches abroad, Shane Te Pou? - Well, I think quite interesting. He seemed to have broken protocols. When leaders of oppositions travel abroad, they'd normally talk about their policy, quite aspirational in terms of their policies. He's dumped on New Zealand a little bit. He visited a high-end sort of charter school and then got sort of caught out that he got his own school, Tangaroa College, in the wrong area when it's in Otara and not in Botany, and it just showed that he's a little bit` I think he's a little bit out of touch on the issues. - Out of touch on the issues? - Yeah. - But he is highlighting the fact that we have a 'productivity disease', was his phrase, I believe. Should he be doing that overseas? - Well, I think he was doing it within a context where they were having a discussion. And let's not forget that, prior to 2017, the now Minister of Finance, Grant Robertson, was out there talking about the fact we had a massive issue with productivity. He put papers out. He said this was the number one thing that he was going to look at. He's done absolutely nothing in this space. So I think it's absolutely fine that our leader of the opposition, within a discussion context ` he wasn't giving a statesman speech, anything like that ` it was having a discussion about what we need to do as a country, and it is what we need to do. - So, he did go to Ireland, and he was talking tech and tax over there, where they have very low tax rates for certain corporations. Is that a model that we should be following? Should he be over there saying, 'I'm going to borrow that'? - Yeah, well, this is the interesting thing. You look at the countries` You know, when you choose to go to Ireland, you are basically focusing on one particular policy, right? Likely to, if you're a National leader, you're going there; you're focusing on tax, the low tax rates there. And these ideas, though, are not necessarily new ones in our political debate, you know ` the idea of a lower corporate tax rate or lower taxes. So... in some ways, you know, this is kind of a return to, you know, maybe an indication of what we might expect from their policy. - Right, coming up. - Yeah, coming up. You know, maybe they're planning to fight these elections on similar kind of Ireland-type tax issues, that kind of thing. - Could be a hint to the future. - Yeah. - OK. Before we go, I must touch on the resignation of Boris Johnson ` almost gone. Almost gone? He's still there. (CHUCKLES) - He's gone. He's gone. I don't think he's gonna hold over to October. I don't think that's sustainable, and I think they'll have a caretaker prime minister in pretty quickly. - Does this have any effect on our relations with the UK? - No, I don't think so. Well, possibly, right? You know, a new leader may bring some renewed discussions between the two countries. - What sort of legacy is Boris Johnson going to have? - Well, Brexit, obviously,... (LAUGHTER) ...and if that turns out to be a complete disaster, then that'll be his legacy. And he brought a very tumultuous set of politics to the United Kingdom. Maybe he wasn't entirely responsible for it, but that will be his legacy. I don't think anybody's going to be` I think there are some British prime ministers that you forget about, and I don't think that he's likely to be one of them, regardless of... - Boris is unforgettable, no matter what he's done. Thank you so much for your time, Dileepa, Brigitte and Shane Te Pou. And that is all from us for now. Thank you so much for watching. Nga mihi nui, and we will see you again next weekend. Captions by Sophie Pearce, John Gibbs and Alex Walker. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - This show was brought to you by the NZ On Air Public Interest Journalism Fund.