- And I'm Simon Shepherd. Nau mai and welcome to Newshub Nation. On the programme today ` face to face in Parliament with new COVID Minister Ayesha Verrall. - We take you live to the annual National Party Conference in Otautahi, Christchurch. National Party Conference - And protesters say they're forming an umbrella political party to contest the next election. Finn Hogan is at the Auckland Domain with developments. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - Tuatahi ake ra ` first up ` - Tuatahi ake ra ` first up ` is the new minister soft on COVID, or is hers a considered response? - I sat down with Dr Ayesha Verrall in Parliament yesterday and began by asking her why we're still averaging 22 deaths a day ` more per million than many other countries. - Because we're just at or just coming off our peak. And if you take us at any particular moment in time where we're at a peak and other countries are at a different stage at our outbreak` uh, at their outbreak, that comparison will be` you know, look quite unfavourable. But of course, if you look across the` the pandemic as a whole, we've had very good outcomes compared to other countries. - But the death toll is running about 1600 now. What's your modelling saying about how high that could go? - Look, the modelling we` that we did in advance of going into this most recent wave of Omicron did say that we could have twice as high case numbers, so I'd have to imagine we could have had far more deaths than we than we had. However, we've peaked at a lower level than was predicted by` by the modelling, so that's` - That's` The case numbers have peaked, but have the deaths peaked? - The deaths` And` In the model, the deaths are roughly in proportion to the cases. However, yes, they do` they do tend to go down a little after the cases, so we'd be` - So you're expecting them to go down? - Indeed, yes. - Indeed, yes. - Soon? - Mm-hm. - OK. But COVID now accounts for about But COVID now accounts for about 15% of all deaths in New Zealand, if you take right now, and that's not too far away from like stroke and heart disease. Do you fear it becoming entrenched? - I think COVID will be part of our life in New Zealand for the coming years, because it is spread around the because it is spread around the world and there isn't an option to eliminate it anymore. However, we can do a lot in New Zealand ` and that's what the Government's focused on ` to making sure we reduce deaths. So first among that ` having access to a life-saving vaccine, and we have access to one of the` to the best vaccine for COVID-19. We continue to put a lot of resource into making sure people have access to it. Also, going into this outbreak, we had access to antivirals, but I really wanted to make sure that the Government had pushed their use along. And you saw that we had looked at novel ways... - Mm. - ...of delivering them, for example, through pharmacies, and that's what we did. With the last announcement we did about three weeks ago, We got a 66% increase in the antiviral dispensing rate, and that's` you know, that's and that's` you know, that's something that stops people from going to hospital almost 90% of the time, so that's a very important thing that we can do to prevent deaths. - Are these deaths preventable? - Yes. And that` - They are preventable? OK. - Well` - So has your public messaging, then, been strong enough to prevent them? - I think everyone knows that there is a vaccine, and we stand very strongly behind the recommendation that people have it. We've done a big push to make sure that there is awareness of antivirals. There's been a lot of emphasis on` on masks and making sure that mask mandates are strong. So, yes, I think, across the board, there is a public health response there that is preventing much higher death rates than we've seen overseas. - Putting a mask on has been likened to like putting a seatbelt on most recently. So should you be engaging in that kind of messaging ` those shocking road toll ads ` to cut through any kind of COVID fatigue? - It's an interesting question, and, look, my understanding is that fatigue actually means that those sorts of shocking messages don't work. And I think it's a really important thing in public health that we acknowledge when the public's risk perception has changed. And, you know, we went into 2020 seeing mass deaths in other countries, and I think the public understood therefore that the measures that we used in New Zealand were justified on that basis. The rate of deaths in this time of the year is not above, um, pandemic years previously The rate of deaths in this time of for more than just one or two weeks at a time` Pre-pandemic years` are the same as pre-pandemic years for this time of year? - Uh, the` so, the excess deaths ` Mm. - so the rise in mortality that we get ` is not above other` other years prior to the pandemic at this time. - Just` But just on the messaging ` I mean, you know, you say that there has been strong public messaging out there, but we haven't seen anything shocking in the two and a half years of public messaging of someone, like, on a ventilator ` trying to get that cut through. You really don't`? - Yeah, I-I don't` I don't believe that those shock tactics are effective. If we said to the public, 'Oh, COVID as a scary today as it is in 2020,' the vast majority of the public wouldn't trust that message, because that's` that's not the case. So I think a really important part of our job as government is, yes, to be putting out forcefully the information that can protect people ` around masks, vaccination, antivirals, staying home when you're sick ` but we can't overdo it, because the fact is the risk has changed, and people know that. - So, you are reviewing self-isolation periods at the moment. Are you going to prioritise betting people back to work? - There's currently a review of that underway. - So you're looking at the moment whether the seven-day isolation period could be reduced? - So you're looking - Uh, we do look at that every time. - Right. - I think the, um` If you go back to the beginning of the year, the area where we've been more flexible previously has been in the contact isolation area as well, the area where we've been and that's another area which we're looking at closely. - How do you mean 'the contact isolation'? - The close` - You mean the household contacts? - Correct. Correct. That's right. - So could there be some changes there? - Uh, that is what I've asked officials to have a look at. - And is there a chance that - And is there a chance that seven days of isolation could go down to five? - And is there a chance that - Look, I-I think` We always look at the evidence there. There is a risk that if we shorten isolation and drive up case numbers, we actually don't` don't help businesses at all. - Let's talk about vaccination rates ` in particular, the paediatric vaccination rates. Less than 30% of 5- to 11-year-olds are double-jabbed. Isn't that terrible? I mean, why is that so low? - We know that COVID increases` The risk of COVID, and severe COVID in particular, goes up as you grow older, and that's why you've seen age as a priority factor. At the time where the vaccine for children got approved, the risks and benefits for children were not as strong as they were for older people. That's one factor. The other factor is we never used mandates with children as we did with adults, because we think parents have the right to make that decision for their` for their child. - Mm. - And so as` as a, um, result of that, those rates are going to be` are going to be lower. - Are you happy with less than 30% of 5- to 11-year-olds vaxxed? - Overall, no, but I think it is not the same as the need we had for a target, for example, in the` in the adult population. And we continue to work on vaccination for COVID for children and also for, um` for other, non-COVID infectious diseases. And that work is not... That is about reversing some of the tail-off that we've had in childhood immunisations in the years prior to the pandemic as well. - So you're saying a drop in overall immunisation rates... - Yes. - ...has contributed to this? - I think there has been a, um` - I think there has been a, um` a trend prior to COVID of lower childhood vaccination rates. We know that there was much more misinformation by the time that the childhood vaccine came on. Children ` we do want to increase their vaccination rates, but we won't be using tools like mandates, and we will be trying to rebuild trust at a community level for the families where that's been a barrier to vaccination. - Is that lack of trust, or that concern about the lack of trust, one of the reasons that we don't have an under-5s vaccine yet? - Because the risk of severe disease is so much lower in children, um, the scientific advice is going to be much more conservative about a vaccine for this group. - Immunity from booster shots is waning, and we don't have the second booster being rolled out for adults over 30 like Australia has. Why is that? - And` Again, it's just because these items are under current consideration... - Mm. - ...and I think, you know, that we'll hear very soon about that. - You've said that there are rare side effects that become more frequent for younger people - You've said that there with the booster... - Yes. - ...or with Pfizer. - Yeah, that's right. - What are those, and how much riskier is it? - Uh, (SIGHS) so, there is a risk of myocarditis, which is heart inflammation. It's incredibly rare. Um, last time I looked at it, it was in the hundreds of thousands level ` um, one case per hundreds of thousands of people vaccinated. And always, in every age group where we approve the vaccine, it is far less risky than getting a complication of COVID. So that's` that's how those decisions are made. That rate is higher in young men. - In young men? - Mm-hm. - And is that a reason for not, - And is that a reason for not, perhaps, rolling out the fourth shot for young men? - So, there's been no decision not to roll it out; it's just that this is the evidence that is evaluated at each stage that we, um` we, uh... extend eligibility to the vaccine or to a booster. - And so` What about the evaluation of the potential Omicron-specific booster? - So, this is the challenge ` is can vaccine manufacture, production and distribution keep up with, uh, with the evolution of the virus? - So is Omicron just evolving too much, or too quickly? - (SIGHS) It certainly is that the vaccine remains a really strong protection against severe disease, and even though the vaccine was developed on that original variant from over two years ago, it remains effective at keeping you out of ICU, keeping you out of hospital. - And that's the best vaccine tool we've got at the moment? - Indeed, yeah. - And that's the best vaccine - Previous COVID-19 Minister Chris Hipkins was very visible at the time, during that response. I would` I'd say that, along with your government's response now, you are less visible. Are you happy with that? - Yeah, I think it's` What we've done is we've had to change from an emergency communications front into one where the prominence of COVID in day-to-day life is` is just different. - Minister, thank you very much for your time. - Thank you. - If you've got a news tip, whakapa mai ` get in touch with us. We're on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, or you can email us nation@tv3.co.nz. and Instagram, - E whai ake nei ` analysis of the week's news from our panel, Fran O'Sullivan, Mark Daalder and Sarah Sparks. - Plus ` we cross live to Finn Hogan reporting from political protests at Pukekawa, the Auckland Domain. Weeks after a protest organised by the Freedoms and Rights Coalition brought traffic to a standstill in Auckland CBD, another event is about to get underway at Pukekawa ` The Auckland Domain ` promising the unveiling of a political movement. Reporter Finn Hogan is there now and he joins us live. Finn, tell us what's happening on the ground there. - Well, good morning. The fog is clearing and the protesters are beginning to gather. It's not a large crowd, as of yet, but it is a lively one. Remember, the last time a protest gathered here, we saw up to a thousand people spill onto Auckland motorway. Now, that picture is complicated a Now, that picture is complicated a little bit today by the presence of counter protesters, who are setting up just behind us there. If there is a flashpoint today, it may be between those two groups. But the counter protesters have stressed to Newshub they are here not confrontationally and are just celebrating diversity. As for what's motivating the protesters behind me, well, according to organisers, it's a bit of a hodgepodge. It's everything from mandates to Three Waters to an overarching sense of government overreach. Now, this is a movement that began as something explicitly anti-mandate and has morphed into something much broader, unified only by its disdain for government and its disdain for the status quo. - All right, Finn, what can you tell us about the umbrella political party announcement? - Yeah, along with, you know, food and entertainment and many other activities promised today, there is something a bit more explicitly political. In a vague post on social media, the Freedom and Rights Coalition have pledged to unveil an umbrella political movement. Now, we don't know exactly what that means, but we can assume, based on previous comments, that it may be some form of union between the existing anti-government and anti mandate groups. that it may be some form of union Now, I actually spoke to some of those groups. I spoke to the One party and to the New Conservatives. They both said, yes, they have had talks with the Freedom and Rights Coalition, but they are not part of any formal announcement today. Sue Grey, from the Outdoors Party, she has not responded to my request for comment, so that's one to watch out for. However, Matt King, former National told me explicitly he will not be allying with the Freedom and Rights Coalition. I asked him why and he said, quote, 'It's a matter of trust.' So, without the support of existing parties, perhaps the announcement today will be more a statement of intent or even wishful thinking. But all will be revealed later today. - Finn, what's their chance of electoral success? Because our own poll showed a fifth of voters would consider supporting an anti mandate party in Tauranga. - Well, look, yes, see that poll - Well, look, yes, see that poll was revealing, but I think it's important to remember - Well, look, yes, see that poll that poll questions actually really change poll results. When you say, 'Would you consider,' that's a very different thing than 'Will you show up on Election Day?' People consider things all the time that they may not vote for. And if we take a step back and look historically, that 5% threshold, that's a really steep hill to climb, particularly for more these more fringe political parties. If we look at Election 2020 ` Hannah Tamaki's party, Vision NZ ` 0.1% of the vote. If we look at Election 2020 ` Advance NZ with Billy TK Junior and Jami-lee Ross ` 1% of the vote. New Conservatives ` 1.5% of the vote. And yes, basic math tells us that And yes, basic math tells us that if we combine those together and all their voters voted in a bloc, And yes, basic math tells us that potentially, they could begin approaching that 5% threshold. But again, I think history really works against them here, because fringe political parties make for bad political bedfellows. They're very prone to infighting. Just remember what happened to Advance NZ in Election 2020. They immediately imploded following the election. One party member` One party leader involved in this space said to me, 'Everyone wants to work together, but no one wants to work underneath anyone else.' And I think that sums up the struggle that these people will face, trying to turn popular anger into political power. - Hm. Finn, is this the last we'll see of these protests? - Well, like it or not, absolutely not. It will not be the last we see of them. There are further events planned for Wellington and for Christchurch. And look, the march in Wellington may very well be as close as anyone here gets to actually entering Parliament. But I think it's really important that we don't just write off these protests completely, just based on the long electoral odds, because politics is about a lot more just based on the long electoral than just the people in the Beehive. In my role as Digital Editor, I've seen the anger and anti-government sentiment that motivates these protests surge over the last year, and as the pandemic recedes, it's not fading ` it's growing even stronger. I think the anger motivating these people is real, and it will play some role, come Election 2023, whether that's within Parliament or outside banging at the door. - Speaking of outside, it's lovely to see you out there. Thank you very much for joining us. That's our kairipoata Finn Hogan. I didn't actually think you'd get out into the sun, get outdoors. - This is the most Sun I think I've absorbed all year. But I'll only do it when it's foggy. - All right. Take care. Finn Hogan there, live from Pukekawa ` Auckland Domain. - A man who lives his life online, Finn Hogan, there. Plenty to reflect on there, with our political panel ` PR consultant Sarah Sparks, NZME's Head of Business, Fran O'Sullivan, and Newsroom's Marc Daalder, who's our first time on the show. Thanks for coming on, Marc. You get the first question. So, if Finn's talking about the online anger that still is there ` anti-government ` could you see that morphing into a, sort of, credible political force? - I think Finn was right on the money, in terms of, there isn't an electoral chance for this sort of faction. You know, you could hear there already, there are a number of different groups that have set up their own parties and, although the Freedom and Rights Coalition is planning to announce some sort of union today, clearly some of the big players have clearly some of the big players have already said that they're not going to be participating in that. I think the factionalism here is too strong. And even if you did add everyone together, 5% is really hard, you know? - Yeah. - Colin Craig's Conservative Party didn't hit it. I don't see there being 5%. - Fran, can you see them playing any part in the lead up to Election 2023? - No, I'm horrified by it. (LAUGHS) It really disturbs my sense of well-being, I have to say. Look, it` You know, the thing about the protests, about Brian Tamaki Look, it` You know, the thing about the protests, about Brian Tamaki and all of that, no respect for law and order. You know, going out on the motorway with all his followers. I mean, some day, some mad person is going to just ride straight into them, I mean, people get frustrated by their frustration, as well. And I think, you know, you kind of want to see a bit more of a sense of order. It's not comforting to us all It's not comforting to us all to be discomforted all the time` - No. - by protest, and while the mandate protest was legitimate, in my view, there comes a time when you really do have to move forward. And I think, as a nation, we do need to be pulling together. - But, Sarah, do you think that we should really be, you know, ignoring something which does` is bubbling away like that? We can't just ignore it. We can't deny their right to protest. It does exist. - Absolutely, and we live in a democracy. And, unfortunately, you know, we are facing a time where there is a lack of social cohesion and everyone has an opportunity for free speech, in terms of the misinformation and disinformation that we're bombarded with, I really believe it's a time for critical thinking, and it's a time for us to actually stand on our values and be discerning and actually look at what's happening and make a call for ourselves and what feels true and` - But this does feel true to those people. - Absolutely, and it shows that there are actually diverse views in the world, and we need to grapple with it as a nation and there needs to be space. - We're going to be grappling with them as they carry on with their protests around the country. Let's move on to a new COVID-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall. Mark, what do you think of her messaging? - I think the messaging is probably lacking in a bit of urgency and seriousness around COVID. You know, we heard, when Omicron first arrived in New Zealand, that it was a mild disease. And we can tell that that's not fully reflective of the` - Well, no, 22 deaths a day. You know, that's the average right now. We are` A lot more people are dying per million at the moment than other countries, than other countries, aren't they? So` - Yeah. - Are they being serious enough? - I think the answer is no. And you know, Minister Verrall talked about risk perception changing since 2020. But I think if you looked at it from a blank slate and said, you know, we're on track to have more than 3000 COVID deaths this year, you ask someone, a member of the public, should we be doing more? I think they'd say yes. - Yeah. How does that` Fran, how does that dovetail in with trying to get people back to work? Trying to get, you know, skeleton staff reassured that there's somebody else to take their place, should they get sick. should they get sick. Should we be reducing that seven-day isolation period? - No, I don't think so at all. I think we've got to be careful about that. Doesn't make much sense to me to bring people back into the workforce who may still be infected. I mean, when I had COVID, I was testing positive for far more than seven days. And` So, you know, I just stayed at home, you know, just read the signs, didn't really want to pass it on to anyone else. And, you know, I may not have been at the infectious stage, but` - Yeah. - You know, you want to be careful. And this` And workplaces, I think, bosses have to be careful about putting too much pressure on staff as well. I mean, we've come through a phase where we've learnt to be cautious. We've heard all those messages for two years out of the Beehive about that. It's very hard to spin that round and say, well, yes, it's now going to be endemic, and you just sort of make your own judgement call. - Live with it, that's right. - Particularly when, you know, the death rates that we do have. - But there is political pressure on, Sarah, at the moment, isn't there? Because, you know, National's saying, oh, well, come on, you need to reduce these isolation periods to seven or even maybe three days. UK doesn't have anything legally binding, so there is that, sort of, pressure to get people back to work and just live with it. - Absolutely, and I think that the minister` you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't. I believe that what she's doing I believe that what she's doing is very measured and she is taking extremely good advice. I believe that what she's doing She is a person who comes from an epidemiology background. Right? So I believe that you can't force measures on people either, and the balance is right. It is very nuanced. And what she is doing is bang on. And it's up to personal responsibility. You know, we actually have to be You know, we actually have to be responsible for ourselves, in making the call. If we're sick, we stay at home. If we're not sick, we go to work. But` OK, let's just` part of her other messaging is around vaccination, OK? And so we, you know, we were told mandated 90%, all those kinds of things. And yet our children under 12, Marc, 30% are only double vaxxed. Has the Government let them down? - I think to some extent there's limits to what the Government can do here. I think everyone agrees that there's limits to what the Government can do here. I think everyone agrees that there's no role for a mandate for childhood vaccinations. And, you know, this is part of an overall trend that we've seen across a range of vaccinations. And so, you know, our measles vaccination rates are pretty poor now and they've been hit hard by two years of the pandemic. And so that that raises concerns about a range of diseases. And COVID is not the only one there. - OK, I just want to move on because we've only got a short period of time. National Party Conference, Fran, Christopher Luxon, he's had a couple of missteps recently, and he's had to sing, as well, this week. - Yeah, that was terrible. (ALL CHUCKLE) He should say stay in your lane. - He should've stayed in his lane on that one. What about what about the broader aspect? Has he had missteps with Te Puke, confusion over tax? - Yeah, look, I mean, there's been a range of things, and I just think the discipline needs to be there. I do not know who advises Chris Luxon and who he actually listens to, but, you know, it's kind of` kind of reminds me a bit when Geoffrey Palmer, many moons ago, became deputy leader and then Prime Minister. You know, his press secretary was taped, you know, basically, pulling him into line. - Right. - And, you know, Christopher needs to listen, a bit. He is quite impulsive in what he says. He's` He jumps from, you know, new, kind of, thing to another. - OK. - And you saw that, with all the bad timing around the messaging on, you know, Omicron, earlier in the year, and the orange traffic alert system. You know` - So you` - Sometimes, you just draw breath and make a considered judgement. The tax kerfuffle all week, I mean, that's just nonsensical. Marc, just on the tax kerfuffle, I mean, you know, you've got them hammering Labour over inflation, and yet, you know, a slight misstep and yet, you know, a slight misstep like that, and that` They should be like, excuse me, having a great week at Labour's expense, and yet that comes along and derails them slightly, doesn't it? - Yeah. I mean, I think it's` It feels a little bit like the Judith Collins National Party, of never missing a chance to, sort of, shoot yourself in the foot. But obviously, this is an exception, I think, from what we've seen over the past few months with Christopher Luxon at the helm, he has been` he's had a few gaffes, but he's managed to avoid sort of, I guess, a train wreck, like we saw last year. - Right, OK. Just on this week, though, with the Labour's Cost of Living payment, Sarah, I mean, revelations that it's going to dead people, to French backpackers ` has this blown up in their face? has this blown up in their face? - The spirit of the intention was pure. So I believe that it had merit. In terms of operationalising it, I mean, who would have thought that this would have happened? And then you've also got to weigh up the cost, administratively, of actually trying to correct something like this. of actually trying to correct So I like to keep the high ground. - So, good intentions, but, you know, it's a little bit lacking in delivery? - Yes. - Does that sum up Labour - (CHUCKLES) In some ways, but they have also delivered in some big areas as well. And I have to say, Prime Minister is back on her saddle again, at least internationally, and I think that's good, because, and I think that's good, because, you know, it doesn't suit a nation to have your leaders looking pathetic, frankly. You do need to perceive them as being strong, at least in some areas. - But, just on the Cost of Living` - Delivery. - On the cost of delivery, a cost of payment delivery is, you know, 1.2 million, rather than 2.1 million, dead people, backpackers... - (CHUCKLES) Not me. - And not you. Does it` Have they shot themselves in the foot? - It's been poorly put together. And it shows all the hallmarks of, you know, a policy on the fly and not getting the operational side sorted out first. - OK. Just, just quickly, Marc, National's come off the ball slightly in the latest Roy Morgan poll, down four points. Is this weekend's conference a chance for them to turn that around a little bit? - Yeah, I think it's a chance for National to pull itself together and also for Chris Luxon to demonstrate to the membership, you know, who he is and why he should be Leader. The caucus clearly backs him, but he hasn't had that chance to talk with the membership. - Right. We'll leave it there for the moment, thank you, Mark Daalder, Fran O'Sullivan and Sarah Sparks. Up next, we will cross live to the annual National Party Conference in Christchurch. Plus, we meet the trumpet player turned teacher turned cop turned MP. We'll be back with his back story. Well, the National Party conference has just begun in Otautahi, Christchurch, Well, the National Party conference their final annual conference ahead of election year. - After a minor drop in the polls this week, Christopher Luxon will be wanting to make a good impression with his opening speech introduced by his wife, Amanda Luxon. Kia tahuri ake tatou. Let's take a look. - Those of you who have spent time - Those of you who have spent time with Christopher will know he's an attentive listener. He's genuinely interested in people and their views. He seeks high standards for himself and for the team he works with. He is the embodiment of commitment when he goes from grappling with a big problem to seeing the solution delivered. All of this, I believe, would make him a fantastic Prime Minister. I believe everything in my background will serve me well should I have the privilege of serving as Prime Minister and taking New Zealand forward, building on my regular Kiwi upbringing with a strong work ethic and a good education, I've been able to seize the opportunities that have presented themselves to me, and I've had and been able to fill them out with thousands of conversations and never let go of that aspiration to help all New Zealanders achieve more than they thought possible. Thank you all, and let's go have a great conference. - Amanda Luxon and Christopher Luxon there. Now, joining us live from the conference is National MP Chris Bishop. Chris, Tena Koe, all the way from Otautahi. Let's start with National's tax policy. Now you've been slammed for dropping one of the one of your few policies and that's income tax relief. Is it rue? - We haven't dropped out plans to index the tax thresholds to inflation, and we haven't dropped our plans to reduce the tax burden on New Zealanders. It's just a Labour Party smear because they want to talk about everything other than the appalling cost of living payment debacle that they've unveiled in the last week that's going to dead people, it's going to French backpackers, to people who were here ten years ago on working holiday visas who've gone offshore, It's going to wealthy lawyers in London. I mean, I had someone contact me this week who left New Zealand in 2004. He lives in Perth. He got the cost of living payment. So it's a scam campaign that the Labour Party is running. - All right, Chris, we've heard that. - And I will talk about everything other than that. - So thank you for clarifying. - You're not dropping the index tax thresholds that you promised earlier in the year. - Absolutely not, we never- we never have. I wanna be really clear on this, we never have dropped it. - All right. Are you still proposing to abolish the top 39% tax rate on wages over $180,000? - Yes, we're going to repeal Labour's taxes. We're going to repeal the ute tax. We're going to repeal the regional fuel tax. We're going to repeal the capital gains tax, which is the bright line extension. We're going to repeal the tenant tax, which is the removal of interest deductibility. And if they get around to introducing this new jobs tax, the so-called social insurance scheme will repeal that as well. National stands for tax reductions at a time of a cost of living crisis. - All right. - All right. - Not wasteful, inefficient fiscal ill-discipline. - All right, initially when the plan was rolled out at the start of the year, it was costed at $1.2 billion. Is that still the case right now? - No, it won't be that cost Next time around. Is that still the case right now? - OK, how much is that gonna cost?- - Clearly it was announced in` Well, you'll have to wait and see next year because the fiscal conditions will have changed by the time we get to election year next year. We announced that plan in January. At that point, we were 18 months out from an election. As you know, there will be many As you know, there will be many different budget updates between now and then` - Do you expect that figure to climb, and how significantly will it climb too? - Well, it stands to reason, just the simple math and simple economics, that the cost will be greater that the cost will be greater because of the inflation that's taken place over that time, the forcing of people into higher tax brackets Since the policy was announced in the start of this year. - And now we have to wait for next year. - That was a proposal for budge` Well, of course, because the election is next year. You know, we're still some way away from the election. And unfortunately, over the next year or so, we're gonna see more and more inefficient wasteful spending from the Labour government. - The thing is, tax cuts was the leader, was Christopher Luxon's, Was National's only big promise this year since he took over leadership, and it's been the biggest promise from National all year long. Is the party losing faith in its leader, in Christopher Luxon? - No, we've got a whole series of commitments across a whole suite of different areas. We announced a massive law and order package just six weeks or so ago to crack down on gangs. I announced that we'll have a royal commission into the COVID response. We'll get that started within 100 days. So we've got plenty of policies that we're talking about all the time, and you'll see many more to come. In fact, we're announcing a brand new policy on welfare tomorrow, which is fantastic and I think will go down extremely well. A new approach to tackling welfare dependency. So, look, Christopher's doing a fantastic job. We will campaign on tax reduction next year and we'll campaign on getting this useless, incompetent government spending under control and actually focus on delivery` - Well, given what's been going on in the last couple of weeks, I'm sorry to cut you off, but given what's been happening in the last couple of weeks to do with your leader, do you still to do with your leader, do you still have faith in him? Some say he's been impulsive and disciplined. - Absolutely. He's` Like the Labour Party is desperate right there. A flailing, useless, tired, arrogant, incompetent government that has delivered nothing in 5 years. ` Chris Bishop, we are here to talk about your party, your leader and the leadership at the moment as it stands amongst the National Party. - Absolutely, and the Labour Party is throwing everything they can at him because they know they have got no track record to defend and they're incompetent and wasteful. - All right, well, according` - And Christopher is doing a wonderful job of explaining that to people. of explaining that to people. - The latest Roy Morgan poll results show that National dropped 4%. Can you tell us why that is? - Well, look, polls go up and down a bit. I mean, 4 points is a blip. But I mean, we're still ahead of Labour. We're tracking in the right direction. I am firmly confident we will win the next election under Christopher Luxon leadership, and we've got a year or so to go and we've got many more policies to explain. And I've got to tell you, this government has got many more stupid things to do, like the cost of living payment debacle, many more dumb policies to unveil them and we'll repeal them when we get the chance. - I do have one last question for you. Do you wish you had backed Nicola Willis to be the leader of National Party? - Christopher Luxon is doing a fantastic job and I can't wait to serve in his cabinet. - All right. Thank you very much. We appreciate your time and thank you for joining us this morning on Newshub Nation. That is Christopher` Chris Bishop, That is Christopher` Chris Bishop, sorry, National MP live there from Christchurch. - Right, well, to meet climate change goals, the world is going to need a massive amount of minerals like copper, cobalt and nickel. Some mining companies say the answer is deep sea mining. Te Paati Maori co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, disagrees. Tena koe, Debbie, thank you for coming on the programme. - Morena, tena koe. - This has been a passion project for you, one of your reasons for getting into politics. How important is this bill? - It's extremely important. It's a part and parcel of the overall picture of advocating, of activism, of going to courts, of now being able to make an impact in legislation. We've tried every logical human way to be able to slow or stop this this type of desecration going on. - Yeah. How likely that you're going to get any support of Labour behind his bill, or is it just dead in the water? - I'm going to remain really optimistic. We've I mean, first of all, I think globally, we've seen a real change in leadership about this particular type of activity. You know, even five years ago, eyes would glaze over, not everyone even understood the full impact. So I think there's a lot more education on the negative impacts. But the other side of it is that we've got a government that needs to have its nuclear free moment. It needs to step up and do more. I've been highly critical of the Climate Change Minister, of the approaches that they are doing, I've been highly critical of the so this is an opportunity to grab that and show some real leadership. - Yeah, they haven't sorted out the position on deep sea mining. And in fact you've said that you're ashamed of their hypocrisy on seabed mining. Why do you say that? - I say that for a couple of reasons. I mean, first of all, this is a government that prided this is a government that prided itself on being progressive, and that has had opportunity. It's a government that didn't have It's a government that didn't have to, but decided to go in with an environmental focussed party. And, you know, what we've seen is the smaller nations that are Pacifica and France that are stating that, look, this is that are stating that, look, this is what we need to do because what happens in our oceans is gonna impact on our neighbouring nations. So what I guess needs to sort of say, is that we cannot be a country that prides ourselves in being green and being natural and being authentic and then at the same time not stop, you know, stop this type of activity. There are a lot of negotiations going on, I know, in the I.S.A., but domestically, we've, you know, we've got one of the smallest iwi in Aotearoa having` Two iwi, sorry, having to fight against this. So the government needs to step up. It needs to show leadership in the protection of the ocean that's it. But on a broader perspective, I mean, some mining companies say deep sea mining would reduce climate change impacts. Is there an argument for allowing some deep sea mining? No, not on the` I think` First of all, I think the question is, is there an argument to allow any degree of risk? All our legislation says we should be taking a cautionary approach to environmental protection. There is nothing that scientifically has proven, there is nothing legally that has been proven the cause to state that that approach can be given. So my answer is a really easy no. The other part of it, what should be happening, is the opportunity for a blue economy? Absolutely. But there needs to be a distraction from extraction and more of a focus on what would a sustainable blue economy look like and how do we then change the conversation to invest capital that way? We're not having those conversations because he wants to hung on the extractive industry? - All right, so how would a blue economy meet Paris climate change goals, - All right, so how would a blue especially when the International Energy Agency says we are going to need 42 times the amount of cobalt, 19 times the amount of nickel to meet those goals. Where are those minerals going to come from? - Oh, look, I wish that I was the expert on that type of answer. I think what really needs to be discussed is where is the plan B planet gonna come from. And there is none. There is` Our ancestors have lots of learnings on how we could protect our planet. There is absolutely nothing to say what we would do as a plan B, what the conversations and the focus need to be on is what is the sustainable way to protect the planet and how else and what else do we need to do alternatively? and I think it's all almost like a, 'Oh no, we can't change because this is the only option we know.' and I think it's all almost like a, We have had a lot of time to invest and think about alternative options. A part of being in the UN forum in Portugal introduced a lot of those entrepreneurs, and I think there needs to be more investment and discussion that way, and not a mono focus on, you know, what it is that we're doing at wallet. - For someone for someone who doesn't - For someone for someone who doesn't know, what is the blue economy? How can the blue economy save the planet? - Oh, look, I think it's first of all, it's about doing something that protects the marine and the fisheries. I mean, we've got billions of people that live off this sector. It is about enjoying and looking at the way that tourism can be. It's looking at sustainable energy. We've seen and look, I'm not the expert on this, I need to mitigate this, but we do have other wind options and other options that are available on the ocean that aren't as destructive. So I think those are some of the things that we need to investigate. And these you know, I think there was a Norwegian entrepreneur that was available in Portugal, don't quote me there. But anyway, what happened was this whole expo of exciting options that I think we'd all be really proud to be a part of. But we just we can't get to that conversation because the whole sector has had a real stronghold of our way of thinking, so that it is a new norm, it is a different way, and we need to be bolder in our thinking. It seems to be the issue that politicised you, and that actually got you into Parliament. It seems to be the issue that But what's going to happen if you don't get any other party support? How are you going to progress it? Oh, look, I think, first of all, I like I said, I've got to remain extremely optimistic. This is` You're talking to a co-leader of a party that was told it was never going to get back into parliament and now we're here. So I will carry on with those types of relationships. I will carry on with the Pacific and global relationships. And a little bit like we've done as the iwi within the court system, we just we keep coming at it because it's just too important. The protection of our ocean is just too important. The protection of our ocean The largest supply of oxygen. So we just will carry on. We have huge tenacity. - OK. The way the polls are sitting at the moment, Te Paati Maori could be the Queen, Kingmaker, if you want to use those kinds of terms. - Thank you. Would this be a bottom line for Te Paati Maori? - We've always identified and been clear on our treaty-centric approaches. This is definitely a part of what makes this up. I think most would expect that, I think most would expect that, I don't know if you want to call them bottom lines, but anything that determines how we go forward would be about protecting our people, protecting our planet. - So if Labour came down and said, yes, we will support your bill, would you support them come election time? - We're not going to enter into any of those types of discussions, it's such a long way off. And it's really exciting to be part of having these polls, and seeing where they're going. But the reality is, is that we've But the reality is, is that we've always said our people will determine where we go at the moment. It's really great to be able to hold the government to account and hold the opposition to account as well. And we're pretty calm about it. I think, I was listening to Chris talking to you before me, and it's just` We've got to be really calm and focussed on what we're here to do, and that's our primary focus, is our people, and then the planet. - All right, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, co-leader of Te Paati Maori, thank you so much for your time today. - Appreciate your time to, ka kite. - E whai ake nei, highlights, or should I say lowlights from the week in parliament's debating chamber? Plus, meet the trumpet Plus, meet the trumpet teacher turned cop turned MP. We'll be back with Backstory. and welcome to Backstory, where we take you behind the politics and into the personal lives of our MPs. From musician to policeman to publican and now member of Parliament ` From musician to policeman ACT's Chris Baillie sat down with Conor Whitten to share his backstory. - Born in Nelson, 1962, um, and, uh, had a great childhood. Dad was a good provider. He, uh` He was a marine engineer ` worked on the rail ferries for many years. Mum ` Mum was a beautiful person, and she passed away age of 67, just before her 68th birthday, in 2008. Just` Just a wonderful mum. Lots of` Lots of fond memories. My dad, he was musical; he played playing keyboard ` and so did Mum, actually. So it was always` There was always music involved in the house. My Uncle Dave, he bought me my first trumpet, uh, at age 6 or 7, and I remember fondly practising with him and... If I was talented enough, I'd love to have been a professional trumpet player, but, uh, I` it was purely a hobby that I just enjoyed ` a hobby that I sort of (CHUCKLES) carried on into a profession, really, as a music teacher. One of the challenges, I think, I faced was actually trying to please my father, to` trying to... to, uh... have him` have him appreciate what you're doing was... have him` have him appreciate was of value. Yeah, we were just different. I was more like my mum. And, uh, me turning into music and And, uh, me turning into music and teaching, um, probably didn't quite fulfil that need, but, uh, certainly it was` it was the direction I wanted to head. I wanted to be a teacher from when I was 14 years of age. I wanted to be a teacher And` And I did that, and I went over to Oman, which is a Middle East country next to Saudi Arabia, and talked for a year at a native school over in Oman, and it was just a fantastic experience. Really, really cool. Great kids. Really enjoyed it. Learned so much. It was a great place. I joined the police in 1995. This was a great little station ` Stoke Community Police Station it was back then, and it was great. We had youth aid cops out of here, we had community officers, and they really knew what was going on. We could look at a tag on a wall and know who did it. Being involved in informing people of things that have happened to their loved ones ` that's always awful, but it also shows you people are good. Generally, people are really good, and` and, uh, I never lost faith in young people. I don't think young people have changed at all. It's the way we deal with them has changed. I've got four great kids. Um, twin girls ` 19- going on 20-year-old girls ` who are finding their feet in the world now. And I used to wake my kids up` my girls up with a fanfare every morning for school, and I don't think they miss that too much. (CHUCKLES) It's often been said that, uh, only way I could get a place to play at is to buy a pub, It's often been said that, uh, only way I could get a place to play at so` so I did. (LAUGHS) (PLAYS CHEERFUL MELODY) Today` Music ` I love music. Every weekend, I'm here back in Nelson. I've got two bands ` Out On Bail and` and Dixie Swing. Most Saturdays and Sundays, we play here. And it just` it is important, just to... just takes you away from everyday life, or` I don't think about politics when I'm` (CHUCKLES) when I'm playing the trumpet. When I bought The Honest Lawyer, I got a note from the police to say that it was a conflict of interest to be in the hospitality industry and a police officer, which I thought at the time was a bit odd. But, um, I thought, 'I've done 14 years in the police, so I'll, uh... 'I'll resign.' A few months later, um, I was` I got a job back teaching, so I went back to Nayland College as a teacher. It's got a very special place in my heart, this college. I attended here as a fifth- and sixth-former back in the '70s; I taught here in the '80s and some of the '90s; and I came back in 2010 and taught for 10 years. It was a big decision, but there was so much going on in 2019 that, uh... that I decided to put my name in the hat and go up and meet David Seymour and decide that that's the` that's the way I wanted to go. I think I said in my maiden speech that my mum would be very proud, that my dad might have other thoughts. We'd have some good... discussions, I think. Um, he, uh... He... He would be supportive, I would like to think, but he certainly wouldn't agree with... with the ACT Party. Just after I got into Parliament, I thought at the time I should go and have a check-up, and` just cos I thought this job might be a little bit stressful, (CHUCKLES) so... so I went along, and I've got a great doctor, um, and he picked up a little heart murmur. 15 months ago, I had open heart surgery and a mitral valve repair, 15 months ago, I had open heart um, and it's good as new now. I'm really enjoying just the history of it. You know? Just being` feeling that I'm a part of New Zealand history. Um... And` And actually, I think, what we say I really believe in. I get more committed to what we say and our values every day. - ACT MP Chris Baillie there with his backstory. Taihoa, e haere ` stay with us. We're back after the break. But Trevor Mallard hasn't lost his edge just yet, booting one National MP out just moments after the house sat. - Yes. Anei ano, Finn Hogan with the week that was in Te Whanganui-a-Tara, Wellington. - Another week in Parliament and tempers were flaring. - Mr. Speaker, many of them wouldn't know a beneficiary if they fell over one. But the reality is this` - Order, order. - Trevor Mallard, wasting no time laying down the law, booting out one National MP during the very first question. - Supplementary` - Right, Bennett out. Mr Bennett will leave the house. - And it was once again the economy at the top of everyone's agenda, with two very different stories being spun across the aisle. - Isn't it embarrassing that a government that claims to care about workers has delivered an economy where the cost of living has gone up faster than wages for the majority of the time it's been in power? - Mr. Speaker, I utterly reject the premise of that statement. - National clearly feeling confident, they have the better narrative, however, already writing off some Labour MPs as gone by next election. - Goodness gracious me, now I do feel sorry for Anna Lorck, I really like Anna Lorck, the member who's just resumed her seat, but goodness gracious me, three years, she's fought so long to get into this place, and she'll spend three years here, and then she'll be out the other door. - But it's not all snipes and snark, there's quieter, cordial debate this week, too, with the data and statistics bill reaching third reading and Naisi Chen explaining exactly why it needs an update. - Fun fact that in the last two days more data has been created and captured than any data from the beginning of human history to the to the year 2003. - But don't worry. I'm sure there's plenty more of this carry on ` - I'm pretty surprised` OK, we've got three apologies now, and that's` That's probably enough. - ...when we're back next week. I'll see you then. Finn Hogan there. We're back with our political panel, Sarah Sparks, Fran O'Sullivan and Marc Dalder Thanks for your time. Just want to quickly touch on Chris Bishop there. He seems pretty fired up, Marc. He's been a bit fired up all week, I think. When Chris Hipkins put out this statement about National's tax confusion, he clearly felt that that was incorrect and has been trying to correct the record. So this could be the tone from now on? Bish the attack dog? - Yes, I think it's a` I mean, he's good at it. - Yeah. Okay. All right. Let's move on. Let's talk about the National Adaptation Plan. That's a really big issue, weighty. I dunno. Did you get anything from it, Sarah? - Well, you know, I'm Maori and so - Well, you know, I'm Maori and so protecting our wahi tapu is critical, and having that maturity to look at our planet, and papatuanuku, and preserve it, and take every step and put that energy into it, because as you know, and preserve it, the Maori Party have said there is no Planet B, so we actually have to make some so we actually have to make some choices now, and with choices to come innovation. So it's important. It's very, very important. - But Marc, I mean, you read 198 pages and thank you for doing that. But did this provide a clear path? - I think there's a lot of plans in the National Adaptation Plan. I think that's to some extent justified. A lot of our adaptation to climate impacts will come through planning, through infrastructure, through urban development. And so it does require a thoughtful process. But, you know, I think for people who maybe wanted to see a bit more something more concrete, But, you know, I think for people a big sea wall around New Zealand, might be a bit disappointed, again there's clearly some more issues to work out still. - OK. All right, let's go offshore Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi going there, Big increase in geopolitical tensions over there, Fran... Is Jacinda Ardern, has she softened Is Jacinda Ardern, has she softened her message to China a little bit while this is going on? - She has softened her message a little bit, in my view. It's more trying to row back towards that sort of middle path between the big powers and I think probably quite wise, given the amount of tension at the moment. Clearly, China also overreacted to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and it's put in place a range of coercive measures back, you know, But the worst thing to me, and it's the point she picked up on all week, where she talked about wanting to have dialogue and diplomacy. The worst thing is the conversations have been stalled by China now on things like climate change between the United States and China. And you do need those big powers to talk on that. - Absolutely. - Also, a degree of military consultation. There are a whole range of institutional architecture which kind of enables big powers to rub up against each other, but at the same time preserve avenues for conversation. And China has just gone bang on that. China has done that, but does this fall back really to Nancy Pelosi saying, 'No, Joe, I'm going to go'? - Well, yeah, absolutely and absolutely, also, because the president in a very, you know, not so subtle manner, had made it clear that, in fact, you know, the advice out of the Pentagon was not to go at this time. And you've got a war on one front in the Ukraine and Russia. What the international community had been hoping to do was persuade China to condemn Russia's actions. I think it throws all that up now. - So, Marc, Jacinda Ardern has to - So, Marc, Jacinda Ardern has to like, again, weave an independent political and foreign policy amongst all this. It's a hard road, isn't it? - Yeah. I mean, I think any time that there's an event like this which makes it harder for New Zealand to` Or pushes New Zealand to choose between China and the West, it's not a good place for us to be in - All right, I just wanna come back to local politics. Green Party. James Shaw has got the only nomination to be the co-leader. Sarah, any surprises there? I mean, what do you make of this? - No, no surprises. And it's` We'll see what happens. Yeah. Fran, what do you make of this process? - Oh, I think it's terrible. You know, I mean, yes, it's democracy in action and all the rest, but essentially what you have done is, you know, by the by the process of, one disavowing him, you know, by the party membership, or, significant enough to throw it open. And then you have various caucus members and others thinking they can be leader. What it does is just sort of portray a distinction between, you know, you know, the caucus and one of its co-leaders. I think it's hard. You know, it's going to be scrutinised quite strong next time around because it will potentially be a party in government again, The Greens, you know, because Labour is not going to get back with more than 50. - That's right. This process, though, is it damaging, Marc? I mean, because James could be elected or they could say, oh no, he doesn't get the 75% again. It's not over yet. - If they were to keep him out, I think that would start to get really damaging. But I think the people who` many of the people who voted to reopen the nominations are conscious of that. They wanted someone like Chloe They wanted someone like Chloe Swarbrick to step in and they wanted to make space for her, and clearly no MP has stepped up for that. So for them, it's I think, you're stuck with James. And they're stuck with James. So just quickly, Sarah, did the did they people behind this sort of` not get it right, because they don't have a succession or a successor nailed in. - I don't hate visibility behind the - I don't hate visibility behind the scenes, but I do know that I've seen gracious messages from Marama in term of what's happened. So again, it's too soon to tell. And I and we do live in a democracy, so let's see what unfolds - I think the great thing is that irrespective of all the internal dimensions of the Greens, the Prime Minister said 'he's my Climate Minister, and stays.' And I think that shows you where the power is, and I think it also shows you the respect of how he performs. - Right. And we'll leave it there. Thank you so much for your time, Marc Dalder, Fran O'Sullivan and Sarah Sparks. And that is all from us for now. Thank you so much for watching. Nga mihi nui, And that is all from us for now. and we will see you again next weekend. - This show was brought to you by the New Zealand On Air Public Interest Journalism Fund.