- Tena tatou katoa. I am Rebecca Wright. Nau mai, welcome to Newshub Nation. on the programme today ` it's been a bruising year in a bruising political term. Can she keep going? Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern joins us live. We catch James Shaw on his way to the biggest climate conference in the world ` but is it an exercise in greenwashing? And will the Democrats hold the Senate ahead of the US midterms? Mitch McCann joins us from the so-called 'disinformation battleground' of Pennsylvania. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 First up in the programme today ` it is the Labour Party Conference this weekend. It's the last one before we head into election year, and the Finance Minister has just delivered his speech, with the Prime Minister watching on. And Simon Shepherd is with her now. - Yes. Thank you, Rebecca. This is a crucial conference for the Labour Party. And as you said, the Prime Minister was just watching Grant Robertson there, and the Prime Minister now joins us. Thank you very much for your time this morning. - Good morning. - So, we just heard the Finance Minister ` he was quite fiery, but he is expecting a tough year in 2023. So can we expect any further financial help from you? - We've always said, uh, that as we come through this period, where cost of living is top of the public's mind ` and top of ours too ` that we will keep looking at what we can do to provide support to New Zealanders. Keep in mind a number of the initiatives we've had ` - Yeah. - half-price public transport, reduction of fuel at the pump ` they keep running through summer; and of course, you've still got the benefit of that increase in the family tax credit, which the majority of families also receive. - But you can afford it, because the tax take is up 10% ` up by some 6 billion. You can afford another initiative. - And again, keep in mind here we also want to maintain that level of service people expect in health care; we need to keep growing our workforce; education; plus, of course, continue to do what we can to support New Zealanders. - You have an announcement tomorrow. - We do. - What is it? - CHUCKLES: I'm not going to share it today. - Why not? - But I do hope that people tune in tomorrow. - Is it along those lines? You said cost of living ` that seems to be the foremost issue. - It is the foremost issue, and we've said that it is top of our agenda. I anticipate that the cost of living and the economy ` which we are prepared to campaign hard on because of our record ` will likely be on everyone's agenda for the next 12 months. - In your opening speech last night, you referenced your political hero Norman Kirk, and you mention that he gave a Christmas bonus to beneficiaries. Would you do that? - Well, of course, you know, one of the reasons I reflected on that is because we've also learned that lesson. You'll see that all the way through COVID, we've had multiple increases to benefit rates, because we know that those on the lowest incomes are the hardest hit through these times and we've seen the impact of that. - Sure. But Christmas bonus? - If I` If I` Well, my point that I'm making is we have done that all the way through ` not necessarily the end of the year, but multiple times... - OK. - ...we have increased the benefit. - I appreciate that. But I'm guessing that, I mean, there's no initiative before Christmas? - But the point that I'm making is that I'd like you to tune in tomorrow, when we talk a little bit more about our next steps. - OK. - If I may, though ` you can see the impact of the decision we made to increase benefits in these times; to also increase the family tax credit, which goes to both working and non-working low- and middle-income earners. When you look at child hardship relative to the last economic crisis we had ` the GFC ` 145,000 fewer children in hardship because of the decisions that we made. - It is hard at the moment, and wage inflation is pushing people into higher tax brackets. I want to understand what your opposition is to increasing tax thresholds to make it easier for them. - Point that we've made is that these issues are all about timing. Now, you've seen the proposals made by the National Party ` of course, they go beyond just tax threshold changes... - Yeah` We're just talking about tax thresholds. - ...but here, again, it is a matter of timing. You know, issues of tax cuts during a high inflationary period ` very clear that that makes the situation worse. The advice we've had is time-limited, targeted ` - OK. - that is the way to provide support to New Zealanders without necessarily fuelling the inflation issues that globally we've seen everyone experience. We have to make sure that in supporting people, we don't exacerbate the cost of living crisis that everyone is in. - OK. But I just want to read you this quote, if you don't mind ` 'This year, we have seen households around the world come under considerable pressure 'as all nations cope with rising food and petrol prices, 'higher mortgage repayments, driven up by the credit crunch.' Does that sound like now? - Oh, look, no doubt that regardless of what is causing it ` supply chain constraints; of course, the food security issues we have... - Yeah. So that's like now. - ...the energy crisis ` there's a range of different factors going on now. - OK. Because that is actually Labour Finance Minister Michael Cullen in 2008, when he announced changes to the tax threshold to cope with the Global Financial Crisis. You just referenced the Global Financial Crisis. It was good enough for Labour then; why not now? - Key difference ` inflation. We have to be mindful around everything that we do to make sure that New Zealanders who are experiencing an increase in the cost of living right now because of what we're seeing around those inflationary pressures aren't worsened. You know, we only have to look at the example of what has happened in the UK, where they're experiencing inflation around the 10% mark... - And they (SPEAKS INDISTINCTLY) tax cuts. - ...to be sure that we don't` Indeed, and National's proposal is the same ` that we don't fall into that economic trap. - OK, so it sounds to me like you are ruling out tax cuts for the next election? - No. The point that you'll hear me making here ` and I'm speaking to our policy in the hearing now ` we have not formulated our policy around tax for the election. But what we have said is that we will be timely and targeted and cautious in all we do, support particularly our low- and middle-income earners but not make it worse. - But you could do it now. You don't have to wait for the next budget. You don't have to wait for an election bribe next year. You have the resources now. - No one will thank us if inflation goes up because of poor policy-making. - OK, let's` let's talk something else now. I want to talk Rotorua and emergency housing. So... your policies really are creating what I'd call a motel generation in Rotorua. Are you concerned about that? - Well, I think we have to look back at, you know, the issue that everyone has been trying to solve from the beginning ` when we came into office, the issue was a generation of kids learning and doing homework in cars. Now, no one wanted that. So, yes, you did see the Emergency Housing Special Needs Grant, a grant which supports people to find shelter and accommodation; you have seen an increase in demand... - Yeah. - ...because we haven't had enough housing. - So` - Is that a long-term solution? Absolutely not. - No. Because the people in Rotorua now are staying up to 35 weeks in this emergency housing... - So` - ...and they're being pulled in from around the country. - Well, first and foremost, I want kids out of cars; I want them out of garages. Do I want them long-term in hotels? No. No one does. We've actually seen a decrease on the use of hotels in that area. And we've learned a lot too. Is it`? - But at the same time, the Government's asking to have another five years of resource consent granted for those hotels, so that problem doesn't seem to be going away. - Of course building houses isn't something we're going to be able to do overnight. And if I might dwell on Rotorua ` they've had an increase in population of roughly 8000 people and, in that time, 1500 consents to build houses. We are now coming in supporting that community to get the houses that need to be built. - Yeah. - And we've been` the Government is overseeing now` 13% of the public housing and community housing stock has been built under us. - But in Rotorua` - But can we solve it overnight? No. So` But` - No. And that's why you have those problems ` - Very` - like $92 million tourism hit in Rotorua. You know, you're creating an entrenched problem there. - Again, as I've said ` get people out of cars, then get them out of hotels. We've reduced the motel use in Rotorua. We've gone from 50 to 30. I want it down to zero. - Mm. - But along the way, let's learn the lessons. You know, community have made a fair point. We've seen a concentration of where they've been used. That's obviously not worked well. - So` It` - So we've got to learn from that. but will I relegate`? - So what's the solution for it? - Housing. Housing, housing, housing. - But you've got 35,000 people on the Housing Register. - Oh, and, again, we're also increasing the number of houses that have been built. You've not seen rates that have been built like this since, uh, as has been said, Norm Kirk's government. - Yeah. - We are proud of the number of houses that have been built under this government ` record numbers, record consents` - And at the same time, the Housing Register is also at record levels. - One point I would make there ` people previously would not register because they would not be placed. That has changed under this government. - OK. - But have we solved the problem entirely? No. But you are starting to see a decline in use in some areas, and Hawke's Bay is another one. - One of the issues about Rotorua is a safety concern, but that is` also seems to be a broader concern throughout the country. Are you 'soft on crime'? Why is that sticking? I mean, we've got 10 ram raids a week. A recent poll says that 70% don't believe you're dealing with gangs. Why is that label sticking? - The question I would raise ` name one law that we have weakened that we believe has contributed to what we have seen in recent times. - Right. So why is that label sticking, then? - Oh, pure politics. Look, I absolutely acknowledge we have had a spike in ram raids. There is no denying it. We've seen the devastating impact that's having on, often, small-business owners. Police have reported that they're starting to see now a decline, and that is because they are targeting and focusing on what is a very small group of, particularly, young people... - Yeah. - ...who are repeatedly targeting. - Has that happened fast enough? I mean, you announced, sort of, the help for the retailers a long time ago, but it's taken a long time to get that action into place. - And, look, we have said, with that funding that we've put aside to try and prevent and respond ` yes, we did want to speed that up. I'm told now we've had over a hundred assessments that have taken place. We want that to happen as quickly as possible. But we also need to make sure we have interventions, because these` these` and they are, frankly, kids ` it is a small number. - Yeah. - We have to get them off the street. We have to end the offending, and often they're in environments where that is the only practice and engagement they've seen from others. We have to break those cycles. - So you believe you're focusing on it, but I don't know whether the voters believe you're focusing on the right areas. I mean, especially` if they're feeling unsafe and you've got a big legislative load, like, you know, unpopular reforms like hate speech, Three Waters, co-governance... I mean, are you actually in touch with the electorate? - You asked me a question on justice, though, and the answer I'll give is, 'We hear that.' That is why we are the government who has put more police on the front line than ever before, why we have a retail unit specifically focused on targeting this form of crime, why we've had massive operations to crackdown on gang activity, why we have cracked down on guns, reformed gun law and, of course, started the register. We are absolutely focused on these issues of criminal justice, and do you know why? Because actually, it is often our low-income communities who suffer the most from these forms of activity. - Well, let's talk about the other policies which seem to be somewhat divisive, I mean, including Three Waters. You're not gonna scrap Three Waters, but will you change it? - Yeah. And, look, we've said` - You will? - Yeah, we are open to changes, but what we are standing really firm on is that this is a cost-of-living issue. You know, no New Zealander would thank me, I think, if they saw us` just because it would make it politically easier to walk away from it, no one would thank us then when there was an increase in their rates for thousands of dollars. - Nobody wants that. - No. - But also, people don't seem to want the co-governance aspect of it. Why are you so wedded to the co-governance aspect of Three Waters, but you're doing resource management reform ` and there's no co-governance in that? - Actually, interestingly` I mean, I know that this is raised with me often by media, but what we see from local government... We've just had Kieran MacAnulty travel around speaking to our rural councils. I think that issue was raised on one occasion in the Select Committee. The thing that actually comes through more strongly is ensuring local service delivery. - Yeah. - How do we make sure, in the four entities ` which are all designed around making sure that we get efficiencies and reduce down costs ` how do we still ensure that, no matter where you are in the country, if you have an issue, you can be guaranteed that you'll be served? That has come through as a much stronger issue than what you claim co-governance is. - I mean, a couple of mayors have offered you, like Bernard Hickey said, an off-ramp. Are you open to changing the Three Waters model? - And as I've said, we're open to changes, which is why we're currently going through a select committee process. I mean, if you wouldn't mind just allowing us to let that run its course, because that's where the public have been engaging on this. - So would you shift on the co-governance model? - Oh, again, that just hasn't come through as the most significant issue. Local representation, local eservice delivery, understandably, has. So let's think about how we can guarantee that for local communities. And the final thing that I'll say ` cost-of-living is top of mind; this is a cost-of-living issue. You know, as I say, no one is out there campaigning for the alternative, other than the National Party, which is do nothing and let rates rise ` because that is inevitably what will absolutely happen if we do not change the structure of our water infrastructure. - Policies like Three Waters, the co-governance aspect of it; maybe the alcohol reforms, the income insurance policies ` those kinds of things weren't in your manifesto; they weren't campaigned on. Can the public trust that you're gonna deliver on what you said you'd deliver and not bring on other aspects? - I just wanna` Alcohol reforms? All that we've proposed here at this stage is to implement a policy that the National Party brought in 10 years ago which hasn't then taken effect because it's got stalled in court. I don't consider that large-scale alcohol reforms. I consider it being responsible. - Three Waters, co-governance wasn't mentioned until June last year. - And if Three W` Well, actually, (CHUCKLES) again, that's been running for two terms now. But Three Waters ` did anyone want to have to be in this position of dealing with it? No. The only person in our caucus who I think has long seen this issue as being one that central government needed to resolve was actually Willow-Jean Prime, who sat on a council and saw what happens when you don't invest. It would be politically easy to walk away, but it would not be right. - But it's about the trust of the electorate and doing what you said you would do, rather than bringing in other things, OK? - Well, social insurance, as you raised. - Yeah, that's a new one. - Actually one that we've been talking about as part of our work with business and with the Council of Unions. - You didn't campaign on it. - It's been open and on the agenda for some time. - OK. - If I may... - OK. - Income insurance we're not proposing to do tomorrow, we're not even proposing next year. We're talking 2025. Lots of time for voters... - So you'd have to win the next election to do that. Let's talk about that, then. - ...to consider it. - That's right. So you are struggling in the polls, to actually form a coalition in the current polls. Does all of this spell the end of Labour at the next election? - No. - How can you be so sure? The numbers don't lie. - Well, first of all, because actually, what most polls are showing is a neck-and-neck race, which is MMP government. Also, there is a year before the election. And do you know why I feel confident? It's because we're not asking New Zealanders to vote based on what just we say but on what they've seen, and the most important issues that I think New Zealand will be looking to next election ` who is going to make sure I can still access decent healthcare, decent education? Who's going to ensure that we have low unemployment and dignity of work for all? Who will make sure that we focused on low- and middle-income earners and the cost of living? And it will be us, because that is what we have done for five years now. - And you've had the first-ever historic MMP majority. How have you managed to go from that to actually having a neck-and-neck race in the polls? - No one would argue that 2020, or indeed the last three years, have been normal. That was not your usual election. I imagine that next year will be a classic MMP election. Labour has won those neck-and-neck and tight races before, and in fact, we've often come back from disadvantage ` but because we have campaigned on what New Zealanders care about. - Do you think the fact that you've had an absolute majority has led to a sort of sense of invulnerability by Labour? Sort of a sense of political privilege? - Absolutely not. - It's been a divisive year. There's been attack on your office. There's a lot of hate. - (LAUGHS) - Well, there's been a lot of hate in the parliamentary process. I mean, are you picking up that there's a shift in the political atmosphere as we're heading into this election? - I wouldn't describe it as the political atmosphere singularly. Look, I've been in politics, you know, going on 15 years. I don't think anyone should ever accept that this is the case, but politicians do from time to time, from a small minority of individuals, often experience what most New Zealanders would consider pretty distasteful stuff. My concern is that actually is what we're seeing more broadly, not just experienced by politicians but by public servants ` by people who may speak up and share an opinion that is that others don't like. - So we have been more divisive? - Well... - As a society at the moment? - Look, I don't want to concede that because we have a small majority who are behaving in that way, that that constitutes division across society as a whole. I don't. - What about you? - But I do consider that a key concern for New Zealanders ` and we know this because they've told us this ` is what mis- and disinformation is doing to our communities, and that affects all of us. - If you win next election, what is the next ambitious area of reform? - Do you want me to name one? (LAUGHS) - Just name one, then. - Look, for me, the next 12 months... No reform can be a single focus without focusing on the everyday. The cost of living every day for New Zealanders is` will be the biggest focus. But what we have shown is whatever comes our way ` an economic crisis, a health crisis ` we will still make progress on the issues New Zealanders care about. So, yes, cost of living, but also housing, child poverty, mental health and healthcare and climate change. - And to deliver that, finally, Prime Minister, do you commit to staying for the full third term if you win the next election? - I have continually said I'm not going anywhere. - Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, thank you very much for your time. - Thank you. - And that was the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, with Simon Shepherd there. So what does our political panel make of all of that? Josie Pagani, Jane Lynch and Agnes Loheni are here after the break. Hoki mai ano. Welcome back. I am joined now by our panel ` former Labour candidate Josie Pagani, Newshub Political Editor Jenna Lynch and former National MP Agnes Loheni. Welcome to you all. OK, we've all just watched the Prime Minister and Simon Shepherd there. I'm gonna open it up, get all of your thoughts. Josie, what did you think, first of all, of the interview? - Uh, I thought she was a bit edgy ` a little bit defensive, maybe. But a few key signals there. So one is we're not gonna get a tax cut. We're not gonna get any systemic change. We're gonna have something ` the quote was ` 'time-limited and targeted'. So it's going to be something like, you know, the cost of benefit payment or an increase in benefit levels or something like that ` which I think is a missed opportunity, cos we're seeing from polling right across the world ` let alone in New Zealand ` that voters want you to` they want governments to check the kitchen sink at inflation and cost of living. Everything. Tax switch. You know, you pay for a tax cut with a tax switch ` you know, take tax off income earners and put it on to wealth. Might be a CGT ` might be a capital gains tax ` wealth tax, whatever. Missed opportunity, I think. - Jenna, what were your thoughts? - Yeah, I think the Prime Minister was really defensive in that interview ` interestingly, as well, trying to kind of paint herself as this battler. She's... - (LAUGHS) Yeah. - ...you know, saying, you know, 'You want me to take the politically easy route;' she doesn't want to go there, and I think she's trying to paint Labour as the underdog for next year's election. She's, uh, looking at the political landscape at the moment and trying to` she's come off that massive high from 2020 and can read the room and is trying to paint herself as the underdog rather than the shoo-in. - Agnes? - Look, I think, clearly, you know, she's trying to paint inflation as this nebulous thing out there that's got nothing to do with this government... - Mm. - ...you know, when, in fact, people know that there are levers that this government pulls that have a direct impact on the cost-of-living pressures that we're facing now. - It is so difficult, though, isn't it? Because inflation is so toxic politically, and we're seeing governments right around the world struggling and failing to do so on many fronts with this issue. - Mm. - But it is going to be the defining one of the election. How do they turn that around, Jenna? - Yeah, I think Josie's right. I think what she was pointing to there was maybe another one of those cost-of-living payments, and perhaps that might be something that she announces tomorrow at her conference. I think they'll probably want to turn things around before summer as well ` try and get` The electorate feels quite grumpy with the government at the moment; they don't want to head into the summer season like that. - And I think they want` It's an interesting sort of dynamic, isn't it, that, I think, the voters want not to hear so much inspiration ` a bit more perspiration. - (LAUGHTER) - They actually want to see the government do some stuff that's gonna impact on them. And I think what you are seeing there, though, is the attacks on National, and I think that National has left themselves open to that, I would say, by proposing a tax cut. I mean, even Rishi Sunak in the UK is putting taxes up. - Mm. - You know, he's also cutting spending, but he's putting taxes up. So I think` I think National is vulnerable there and Labour have smelt the blood and they'll go after Luxon ` they'll go after National about, you know, 'You can't do a tax cut and deal to debt and keep public services going. 'You can't do all three of those at the same time. Pick one.' - Yeah. I noticed something else today too, which is` um, the Prime Minister doing a little bit; Grant Robertson did in his speech ` which is harking back to we` the way that we dealt with COVID. 'We led the country through COVID; 'we can lead the country through this cost-of-living crisis.' But Kiwis are over COVID now, aren't they? They're concerned about their pocketbooks. That is a distant memory. It's not gonna necessarily get the government through. - Well, I think also, increasingly, Kiwis are actually feeling that they were duped. You know, they put a lot of trust into the government ` they put a lot of trust in Jacinda Ardern ` and now more and more, I hear that people are thinking, 'Actually, what was done for us, 'I don't think that was actually fair and right,' and we're seeing the fallout from it. So that` it comes to, again, trust in her and her personal brand. - Um, Jenna, this` she said something else that caught my eye, which was that this is gonna be a classic MMP election. And that's what the polling is telling us right now, isn't it? - Yeah, absolutely. Um, the scenario where we're going to get another majority government just seems completely and utterly out of the water. This is going to be a drag race between the left and the right blocs, and they're going to have to make some concessions where they haven't been in this term of government. Labour has had` has been unbridled by everyone. They've been allowed to do whatever they want to do this time around. And National will probably start looking at some of those ACT policies as well and go, 'Oh, what are we gonna have to give up to them 'in negotiations?' - Yeah. It'll be which one looks the most worrying to the voters. - Mm. - Is it the right bloc or the left block? You know, are they gonna be worried about a Labour/Green, NZ First/Maori Party` well, NZ First who knows where; or will they be worried about National/ACT? But one thing we saw in that in that interview just then ` they're rethinking Three Waters, aren't they? They're gonna reframe it. They might even rename it. - Mm. - So that's interesting ` they're realising that they can't go into next year with a bunch of unpopular policies. I mean, good luck finding three people who understand Three Waters. - (LAUGHTER) Everybody hates it. - And they do have a lot of controversial or unpopular reforms to go. We touched on some of those in that interview. They're going to head into election year with quite a lot to fix up from this year, aren't they? - Yes. - Um, exactly. - Or finish off, I suppose. - I mean, they're really indicating, you know, hate speech laws and` whole other reforms which don't actually address cost of living. So, one, they're saying, 'Cost of living's really important ` it's a priority; 'oh, but we're gonna put these through. These are really important too.' So they don't connect. - Well, next year as well, when you get to January ` that fuel tax. At this stage, that fuel tax is going back on. They're gonna have to start election year by putting a tax on Kiwis at the petrol pump. That is not how you wanna start. - Yeah. You'll go to the bach and your petrol will cost this much; you'll come back from the bach and it's gonna cost you more. - It is not great timing for the Government, and there's a lot of economic clouds on the horizon next year too it may have to deal with. But thank you so much for your analysis on the PM's interview, and we will have you back a little later in the show too. Up next ` if last year was a code red for humanity, what is this year? Climate Minister James Shaw on COP27 and accusations of greenwashing. Hoki mai ano. Welcome back. Well, Climate Change Minister James Shaw is heading to COP27 this week ` it's the UN Climate Conference. Meanwhile, Greta Thunberg, who was the voice of a generation on climate change, isn't going because she's calling it an opportunity for leaders and people in power just to get attention using greenwashing, lying and cheating. I spoke to the Minister earlier and asked him what he thought of that. - I agree with her. I mean, I think that that is always a feature of these conferences, and it's one of the things that I find incredibly frustrating, is that in the one opportunity that we have to try and make progress as a planet on reducing emissions, there are loads of countries and companies who, kind of, use it as an opportunity to showcase inaction, you know, and, kind of, clothe themselves in this, kind of, veneer of concern while actually not really doing anything about it. - But you still think it's` You think it's important to go, though? - I do. I think it's... Look, let's put it this way. It's a deeply imperfect system, but it's the only one we've got and we really need it because without it, we would be absolutely nowhere. - What is striking to me, you know, with Greta Thunberg saying that she's not going is that division that seems to be happening between activists in this space and, sort of, consensus-builders like yourself. What do you think about that? - Well, it's` I can completely understand the tension. Right? So, you know, my friends at Greenpeace say that winning slowly on climate change is the same thing as losing because we are up against the clock. And we had just had that report saying that it's highly unlikely that we'll actually make the 1.5 degree threshold now. So we do need to move at the scale and the speed of the crisis. At the same time, the issue that, you know, one of the reasons why, in fact, one of the primary reasons why we've made virtually no progress in 30 years, is because we haven't been able to get agreement that sticks. So you've seen that here in New Zealand. You know, one government comes along, tries some stuff; another government comes along, trashes it, and you don't make any progress. So I think the really important thing is that actually, if we're gonna make any progress at all, it has to be enduring. It has to have a level of consensus to it. - Yeah, well, I think, you know, Greta Thunberg is obviously frustrated at that lack of progress. You seem to be frustrated by it too. The UN Environment Programme, as you've mentioned, the report this week, the most recent one, shows COP nations are woefully far behind hitting their targets to reduce global warming. Is last year's goal of 'keep 1.5 alive' ` is that dead? - It's on life support. And the thing I wanna be really cautious about here when I say that is that it is also really important that we don't take that as a signal to give up, because if we just gave up and said, 'Look, let's stop trying to cut pollution, 'let's just focus on adapting to the effects,' that would be catastrophic. - There also does need to be accountability` - Yes, there does. - ...if you're gonna set a 1.5 goal. If we don't reach that, do we just wave it off and now it's 2.8 instead? - Well, again, what it means to me is we have to redouble our efforts. Right? We've absolutely got to stop putting this pollution into the atmosphere that causes climate change in the first place. The fact that, you know, we said by 2050, we want the whole planet to be, on average, carbon neutral ` it's clearly too late for that. You know, things are moving far more quickly than I think we anticipated, even a few short years ago when we signed the Paris Agreement. And so to me, that's just, you know, you've got to kind of crack on with it and redouble your efforts. - So the Paris Climate Agreement set out clear plans as to how countries could achieve the 1.5 goal. Let's say that is shifting slightly now. But many haven't put them into action. How are we doing? - Well... - Not good, by the looks of things. - Well, look, everything that we have done since we got into government at the end of 2017 has been about taking the Paris Agreement and transferring it into our domestic environment. - Yeah, and I wanna know about how we're doing. - Can I give you examples? - Sure. - Look, the Clean Car Discount that we introduced this last year has meant that last month, 30% of all new cars sold in New Zealand were electric vehicles. Now when we got into government, it was 1%; a year ago it was 5%. Now it's 30%, so we've really turned the dial on that and we know that the emissions profile from transport will change as a result. Right? So that's huge progress as a result of one policy intervention. You know, and if we can start to replicate that in other areas ` and it is really important, by the way, in transport because that was the area of our emissions that was growing the fastest ` so we're turning it around. - Yes, but it's a small part of the puzzle, isn't it? So how are we doing overall? How would you rate it? Poor? - Well, yes, frankly. You know, it's taken us 30 years to get to the start line and there is a lag time. You know, you put these policies in place, they start to have an effect, but it's actually a few years before you see how you're really doing. Our emissions are down now about 5% on where they were when we got into government. However, a lot of that was due to Covid, and so the data from the last few years is really messy because we've had this other thing that's completely changed what's going on in the economy. So it's gonna be a few years before we can actually see what the trend line is. - And I want to talk to you about an important part of that, which is He Waka Eke Noa. Will you be talking about that at COP, given that Fed Farmers might pull out? - We'll be talking about it in the sense that we'll be talking to other countries and sharing our experience. You know, there are a couple of countries in the OECD ` Ireland, the Netherlands ` that are also working quite hard on agricultural emissions. But it's a very small group, and no one yet, including ourselves, has made any kind of significant breakthrough. - Well, I wanna talk to you because you've always said that you need consensus on climate change policy for it to be long-lasting. But that consensus is really lacking right now, isn't it, from farmers. - It is. - Is the breakdown bad political management? Because they were outraged and they seemed shocked when you made the announcement, and it seems to me that it's very late in the piece for one of your main partners to be shocked and outraged and coming out in opposition to what you've been working on supposedly together. - Well, Federated Farmers, I have to say, were only ever really half in the tent. - So why couldn't you get them fully in the tent? It's consensus building. - Well, I think because this has always been contentious. You've got to remember, Fed Farmers is also a quite a democratic organisation and they've got Groundswell on the other side who are pulling them in a direction. And so that's made it very difficult for them to feel like they could participate fully alongside some of the other agriculture sector partners that are in the He Waka Eke Noa partnership. - Where do you think you're gonna get to on that? - On He Waka Eke Noa? Look, you know, we're currently out for submissions. We're gonna have to see how it goes. I'd say that there is a broad political understanding that agricultural emissions have to come down because they're a very significant part of our overall emissions profile, that pricing is one of the, you know, tools that we need in order to get there. The question is ` what does that system look like? - Mm. I wanna switch now ` cos we're just about at the end, but the political landscape could shift next year. The Greens have never worked with a National government. A change in government ` would that significantly compromise the work that you're doing? - My sense... I mean, the National Party have been at pains to repeat that they support the overall direction, they support the Zero Carbon Act, they support the targets, they support the institution of the Climate Change Commission, they voted for the three emissions budgets that we put into place this year. Where they, you know, kind of, differ is that they would have a different plan to deliver on that. Now, I would say that their plan doesn't meet the reality test or the credibility test. They, of course, say the same thing about my plan, but that's politics. - That's politics. Could you work with National? - Well, the Green Party has worked with National in the past. You know, we've, you know, co-operated with them around things like the Home Insulation Scheme, the National Cycleway Network and so on. I have to say that if I was given the choice, why would I, you know, switch from working with the Labour Party who, whilst I am, you know, occasionally frustrated by the set of decisions that they make cos I don't think they're going fast enough, the National Party have shown no evidence that they would go any faster. In fact, they strongly suggest they would go slower. So just the other day, Christopher Luxon said that they would reopen oil and gas exploration off the coast of Taranaki. Why you would do that at this particular moment in history is completely bonkers to me. - And it would be toxic to a lot of people in your party. I have another question for you on Christopher Luxon. He told a group of farmers this week, leaping into the vacuum or the void that exists at the moment between you guys, saying New Zealand has the ninth largest exclusive economic zone in the world. That is a huge area of ocean that acts as a 'massive carbon sink, 'so we can use that to offset our carbon if we change the way we count it.' What's he talking about? - Yeah, well... I mean, what I infer from what he's saying is that we can meet our obligations to reduce pollution by changing our accounting system. And that is completely unscientific. Now, there is a very significant potential for decarbonisation, you know, and what we call blue carbon, but that's got to be based on rigorous science, not on changing your accounting methodology. So the idea that we can somehow go, 'Oh, actually, it's fine 'because we're just gonna change our accounting methodology' ` that makes no difference to what we put into the atmosphere at all. And that's what we need to focus on. - Sort of a businessman's approach, isn't it? I have one final question for you. It is an election year next year. Will you be co-leader of the Green Party throughout that period? I would hope so, but you'd have to ask the members of the Green Party. My intention is to carry on for sure. - Wonderful. Thank you so much for joining us here on The Nation, James Shaw. - Thank you. - Well, our climate correspondent, Isobel Ewing, was watching that interview with me. What surprised you or stood out to you about that interview, Isobel? - Rebecca, I think you just have to feel for Jimmy Shaw on this. You know, he's fighting this climate fight, and every action is met with opposition. You know, everything requires this consensus to get the longevity, and we all know that in politics, getting consensus is just the hardest thing. You know, look at pricing farming emissions. James Shaw, when I spoke to him yesterday, described the environment out there around that as febrile, which is James' very mild-mannered way of saying it's a total cluster because you asked him there if that, you know, speaks to bad political management. I think absolutely it does. The farmers ` the government told the farmers to go away and come up with their own proposal, which they did, and perhaps it wasn't perfect, but instead of going with that, the government said, 'OK, well, no, actually. We're gonna tweak that and announce this.' And so of course that was like kerosene, match, boom, and the industry ` no one's happy now. You've got farmers angry, you've got environmental activists unhappy, and Shaw's saying that the scheme is going to evolve anyway after 2025. And so why not just get something that everyone's on board with? It's not perfect and then at least you're going forward in unison, whereas now it sort of feels like the government's gonna find it very hard to return to a sensible negotiating position with farmers. - Yeah, well, the battle is back on, isn't it? It is a missed opportunity. What are the key things that you'll be looking for at COP27, Isobel? - Well, I mean, gosh, when you've got the Climate Change Minister saying he agrees with Greta Thunberg that potentially it's a bit pointless, I mean, I would, I would sort of agree with that, but I'm an optimistic person, naturally. And so I think there's still` it's still worthwhile heading over to COP, because you could argue, you know, it's a bit of a talkfest, there's a lot of posturing and not much action, but as Shaw says, it's important for all of the leaders to get in a room and hold each other to account, especially when we're looking like we're probably gonna miss that 1.5 degree limit of warming. And so we need to really move to a point where we're all holding each other to account. And I'm hoping that this COP will be a Pacific COP. You've got some of the big guys not turning up ` China, Russia, Australia, not coming. But hopefully, that'll create a create situation where you'll have New Zealand coming in who can advocate for those smaller island nations and say, 'All right guys, in Copenhagen 12 years ago, we pledged we'd put '$100 billion a year towards smaller nations adapting. 'We're not there yet,' and putting pressure on some of those issues because really no one's under any impression that we're gonna go to the desert and immediately create transformative change around climate change. But I think having everybody there and continuing to have those discussions on a global platform with the world's media watching, it's got to be worthwhile. - Well, our Prime Minister isn't going. Why not? - Yeah, so (CHUCKLES) I talked to` I did a story about this, actually, for Newshub Live at 6 last night and got a bit of flak from her office, who said that we've got APEC coming up, we've got the East Asia Summit coming up. Those are meetings that the Prime Minister has to get to. And so logistically, getting all the way to Egypt, a 40-hour flight one way, is a bit of a mission, when she's got that stuff going on as well. And so I do understand those logistical challenges, but when you've got a prime minister who said that climate change is her generation's nuclear free moment and she's never been to a COP, the thing with climate action that helps push it along is bringing people along. And so, you know, her presence there to talk up this plan that they have to price emissions surely would be worth something. And, you know, having the Prime Minister on the world stage there talking up those plans ` even if she can't go, perhaps Damien O'Connor, our Agricultural Minister, going along ` but then on the flip side, if she does go, she might get attacked for virtue signalling, virtue signalling on the world stage, and so she can't really win on this one. And I have to say that the Nats putting the boot in for her ` the National Party putting the boot in for Jacinda Ardern not going along is a little bit rich, given as the Minister mentioned there, we've got Chris Luxon saying he would reopen gas exploration, which is one of the gruntiest policies that the Government's managed to get across the line on climate action. And so I mean I think the thing with climate action is it requires that partisan support and the National Party kind of choosing to, kind of, cater to that Groundswell vote rather than perhaps contributing to the conversation in a more productive way ` it's a bit disappointing to see. - Yeah, they're playing politics with it. Thank you so much for joining us here on The Nation for your analysis. - Thanks, Rebecca. - Well, coming up, is the title Leader of the Opposition obsolete? Well ACT and the Greens think it is. Does our political panel agree? We will be back after the break. Hoki mai ano ` welcome back. Well, next week, America heads to the polls again for its mid-term elections. Joe Biden isn't on the ballot, but neither is Donald Trump, and both are looming large over the final days of congressional races. At stake is the balance of power in the House and the Senate, but it's also a chance to take the temperature of the nation for the first time since the chaotic 2020 election. Well, US correspondent Mitch McCann is on the campaign trail. And you are in Joe Biden's hometown of Scranton, Mitch, often described as the centre of the political universe. What's the vibe there heading into this weekend? - Yes, good morning. Nice to chat with you again, Rebecca. The vibe, I would say, in one word, is one of concern. Concern from the Republicans ` that the Democrats are going to get to take the House and take the Senate, and vice versa from the other side. So a real heightened state of concern here at the moment. As you say, we're in Joe Biden's hometown of Scranton. You'd be hard pressed to find too many Republican flags and signs around this city. But if you go maybe 20 minutes either way to another place in the state, there's a lot of Republican signs. We've been to one place today, Bensalem in Philadelphia, and for them, the idea of voting for Joe Biden would simply make them sick. They wouldn't even talk about the possibility of doing that. So ahead of a really important midterm election next week, I would say the vibe is one of concern. - Well, Joe Biden narrowly took Pennsylvania from Donald Trump back in 2020, and there were false claims back then, Mitch, that the state was stolen ` and the election in general, actually. How is the polarisation, the division and the disinformation ahead of the midterms next week? - Yeah. I think, Rebecca, we're talking about a country and a state now where... where you are running for office, you can simply make things up and people will believe them. We've seen that in this election so much so far. To give you one example, there's a man running for governor called Doug Mastriano. Now, he's accused of saying that a local children's hospital has been kidnapping children to experiment gender transition procedures on them ` which is outrageous and untrue, but people will go along with things like this. Another thing that's happened is that leaflets are being dropped in mailboxes around the state of Pennsylvania telling people their votes haven't counted, or they've been ineligible; they have to vote again. So there's this confusion going around as well on social media. So there's a lot of division and a lot of disinformation at the moment. So it's going to be interesting to see next week if the Republicans especially accept the results if they aren't in their favour. - Yeah, absolutely. And Mitch, the Senate is a toss-up right now. As you mentioned, Pennsylvania could decide whether the Democrats get to hold the Senate. Are there close races in Nevada and Arizona? What are the issues that Americans are voting on at the midterms? - Yeah, there are so many different issues that Americans are voting on at the moment. One of the big ones is abortion ` for Democrats, especially after Roe v Wade was overturned. Joe Biden says he will codify Roe if the House and the Senate both turn back to the Democrats again, so people are voting on that. But from the Republican side, one of the things I've picked up from people today especially is they are really unhappy about inflation at the moment, the cost of gas, and there's also this concern that's kind of creeping into the midterm elections around Joe Biden ` even though he's not running for office in these elections, is that he's simply too old and not up for the job anymore. A lot of people are saying that. So they want the Republicans to control the House and the Senate so that Joe Biden can't do much, because they say he's incapable of doing it. So many different issues. It will be interesting to see which ones come out on top in the results next week. - Yeah, absolutely. - And Mitch, you are seeing Donald Trump stumping tomorrow. The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that he is going to announce his run for the presidency by the end of the month. He's back, isn't he? - Yes, I think he is back. Although did he ever leave, Rebecca? Cos he's done 32 rallies ` by the end of this weekend ` since he lost the presidency to Joe Biden. So he's been pumping out these rallies for the last couple of years. As you say, reports today that he could announce a run for the White House again on the 14th of November ` which is an interesting day, because that is when he's supposed to testify to Congress and the January 6 Committee. So whether he does that or not will be interesting. But Donald Trump making, very likely, another run for the White House. - He might use it as a chance to declare. Thank you so much for joining us. From Scranton, Pennsylvania, that is US correspondent Rich McCann. Stay with us. We are back right after the break. VOICEOVER: The Indian pace attack can bowl in-swingers at 150 k's. (BEEPING) Are you ready for India? (BRIAN WHIMPERS) VOICEOVER: Brian is! (BANG!) (CROWD ROARS) Can you believe it? Hoki mai ano ` welcome back; and also to our political panel, Josie, Jenna and Agnes. Welcome to you all. I'll start on James Shaw, because there is this interesting dichotomy, I suppose, that we spoke about at the start of our interview, between activists and the establishment now on climate change. And we're sort of seeing this here at home and we too, in the Green Party. - And I think what you see from James Shaw there is a politician who's very comfortable with himself, and he came across` He's charming, right? And you compare it to Prime Minister's interview, which was a bit more prickly. So it's interesting to see a different personality there. But I think that` I mean, the problem he's got is that we need to have a realistic conversation about climate change. And you were saying, 'How are we doing in New Zealand?' Not well. Yep. OK. We banned oil and gas; we've increased our coal consumption. So, yeah, when can we have a realistic discussion about what's going to make a difference? And the big thing that will make a difference is bringing emissions down in developing countries, and we could be giving far more funds. We should be; we committed to ` Paris declaration ` to give $100 billion globally to developing countries, Pacific countries and countries across the world to bring their emissions down. We could pay China not to build coal plants or coal plants. So there's a whole lot of things. We kind of need a reality test, I think, about that. And he sort of grapples with that, doesn't he? - He's becoming a little bit more activist as well following that coup that wasn't a coup in the Green Party, and we've seen him starting to do a little bit more Green stuff. With the He Waka Eke Noa announcement, he made it clear on record that he wanted to go further and faster. So bringing out a little bit more of Activist Shaw. - Um, Agnes, I wanted to ask you about Christopher Luxon's comments this week on climate change. He was talking about using the ocean to offset that carbon if our changed the way we counted. James Shaw isn't sold. Are you? - Well, actually, you know, Luxon's correct, because if you look at what the issues are ` and there's been some polling this week ` climate change is important, but it's down the priority list, and we have to reconcile some of the things that we want to do to lower emissions to the reality for New Zealanders today around cost-of-living pressures. So it's about reconciling those priorities. - Josie, what did you think about Luxon's comments this week? - Yeah, I mean, I think he` The problem he's got is that he doesn't quite understand the policy, I think, that he's talking about. I mean, he's trying to say ` as James Shaw said ` you know, 'Let's measure` Let's account for emissions differently,' which` I think James Shaw was making a fair point that, you know, if you're just going to change the accounting system, you're not actually changing emissions. But I do think Agnes is right. I mean, you do need to have a realistic conversation about what we can do. And, you know, 83% of the globe's energy consumption is still fossil fuels. Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere in a hurry. So we've got to look at how might we, you know, put money into renewables, but also do things like, you know, is gas better than coal? Yes. You know, it's` So I think he grapples with that` being realistic about stuff, and Luxon's trying to get into that. - Right. Jumping into the void there. Jenna, you've got your hands this week on the first polling numbers out of Hamilton West, which say the Nationals are nearly 45% there, Labour 37%. What` Is this going to be, a bellwether, do you think? What are you anticipating happening in the next few weeks up in Hamilton? - Yeah, in the by-electron ` I'm so excited! I think Labour National have both been having this kind of scramble for underdog status. To see those numbers was really interesting. Labour does have a massive uphill battle here, because not only are they in government ` and governments find it really, really difficult to win by-elections ` they also have an ex-MP who is hell-bent on taking them out, and he is not going to be quiet in this by-election. So, yeah, big uphill battle for them. - One of the strangest episodes, I think. Well, definitely the strangest episode in politics this year for me. But the Nats must be feeling good at this opportunity, I suppose, to test the electorate and get some good news before the end of the year, Agnes. - It is a really good opportunity, and I think also what we've seen with the recent local government elections is that there is definitely a shift in the mood, and the shift generally was more towards the centre, centre right. So this is a good` good place to be; it's a good time in the cycle to get that` you know, some of the key messages that National wants out and use this by election to do that. - A little bit of a practice run too, perhaps. I want to talk about something that happened in Parliament this week, which is the ACT Party and the Greens are calling for the Leader of the Opposition title to be scrapped. They don't want to hear it anymore. What do you think about that, Josie? - Do they` Do they want co-leadership of the opposition or something? I don't know. It's such a beltway issue. I` This is very rare for me ` I have absolutely nothing to say about this. It's like, does anyone care? - Who cares? (LAUGHS) Who cares? David Seymour cares, that's who cares. - Why does he care so much? - Because he had a really good run over the last, sort of, four or five years, while National was sort of scrapping itself to death. He had a really good run because he could cut through and kind of become almost the pseudo Leader of the Opposition. Now that National has a leader with credibility, that people are going to for the grab on the news, David Seymour still wants to be that dude, and he's taking on Christopher Luxon. He doesn't like him as Leader of the Opposition. - He sort of is still that dude still, right? So he's the one who's rolling out policy. I mean, you'd have to say ` whatever your politics, ACT and David Seymour have been right there in front of every story. So they are kind of the de facto. - It comes across as petty high school politics. It's all he does. - Nobody cares about it out in the voting public, do they? But David Seymour wants to make it official, I suppose. Something sort of funny and lighter to end the week on ` copyright. Katy Perry. Have the National Party run into trouble on their TikTok or their Instagram? - Insta, I think. - Haven't they learned their lesson, do you think? - Again. - Again! - (LAUGHTER) - Next time they do it, they should rip off Britney Spears, so we can put 'Oops, I Did It Again' in the showreel. - But they are trying some new things out there, aren't they? I've seen` like the distinct, sort of, uptick in their social content. Are we getting the start or a taste of what's gonna happen in the election campaign? - Yeah, some policy would be good, though. I mean, you may well do well on social media, but so far, all we've seen is kind of brand National Party policies like tax cuts. And, you know, frankly, that's not going to win any voters over at the moment ` who, as we've seen in the polling, want governments to throw stuff at the cost of living problem. They do not want to see a tax cut going to` What is it? Half the tax cut would go to the top 10% earners and landlords. There's surely better ways of spending that money. - They are in this awkward sort of spot though, aren't they? Because they will want to save their big policies, and they're positioning to keep that secret under wraps until next year, Jenna, won't they? So they've got to fill the void at the moment with a little something, test some things out. - Yeah, and I think that 39% tax bracket is` They're shifting on that. They're now saying, 'Look, we'll only do it when fiscal conditions allow,' and we might see them` - CHUCKLES: Yeah ` 'When fiscal conditions allow.' - Which isn't any time soon. So we might see that in sort of a third year of a term type thing. And it is their massive Achilles heel at the moment, so I think we'll probably see some shift on that. - It's like they're waiting for Labour to lose. - So interesting. Thank you. So, that's all we've got time for this morning, but thank you so much to Josie, Jenna and Agnes for joining us on the panel on the Nation here this morning. And that is all from us for now. Thank you for watching. Nga mihi nui, and we will see you again next week. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2022 - He mea tona ki te hotaka nei na te Public Interest Journalism Fund.