- TENA TATOU KATOA. I'M REBECCA WRIGHT. - AND I'M SIMON SHEPHERD. NAU MAI KI TE MOTU ` WELCOME TO NEWSHUB NATION. ON THE PROGRAMME TODAY ` GRANT ROBERTSON ON ONE OF HIS TOUGHEST WEEKS AS FINANCE MINISTER. - CONOR WHITTEN REPORTS FROM HAMILTON WEST ON WHAT THE BY-ELECTION COULD REVEAL ABOUT NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION RESULT. - AND DIGITAL EDITOR FINN HOGAN ON WHO'S UP AND WHO'S DOWN IN POLITICS ONLINE. CAPTIONS BY MAEVE KELLY AND JESSIE PURU. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ COPYRIGHT ABLE 2022 WELL, A BLEAK MESSAGE WAS DELIVERED THIS WEEK BY THE RESERVE BANK AS IT HIKED THE OFFICIAL CASH RATE BY A RECORD 75 BASIS POINTS. ADRIAN ORR TELLING THE COUNTRY A RECESSION IS ON ITS WAY. - AND IT'S PREDICTED TO HIT THE SAME TIME AS NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION. - THE RESERVE BANK IS WARNING NEW ZEALANDERS TO BRACE FOR A LIKELY RECESSION IN 2023. - JUST COOL THE JETS. INFLATION IS NO ONE'S FRIEND. - THE COST OF PETROL IS SOON EXPECTED TO REACH RECORD LEVELS. - I'D BE EXPECTING SOME OF THE HARDEST AND HIGHEST PRICE RISES COMING FORWARD. - YES ` THINK HARDER ABOUT YOUR SPENDING. THINK ABOUT SAVING RATHER THAN CONSUMING. I KNOW THAT'S A STRANGE CONCEPT. - LIFE IS STILL REALLY HARD FOR SO MANY THOUSANDS OF KIWI KIDS. - IT'S A PRETTY WORRYING FORECAST. - YOU ARE DELIBERATELY ENGINEERING A RECESSION? UH, I THINK THAT IS... CORRECT. - I REPEAT MY CALL THAT THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO AN INDEPENDENT INQUIRY INTO HOW WE GOT HERE. - SO I ASKED FINANCE MINISTER GRANT ROBERTSON THIS WEEK WHETHER HE THINKS A RECESSION IS UNAVOIDABLE. - THE HEAD OF THE IMF SAID JUST A WEEK AGO THAT COUNTRIES IN 2023 WILL EITHER FEEL LIKE THEY'RE IN A RECESSION OR THEY'LL ACTUALLY BE IN ONE. AND THAT IS THE NATURE OF WHERE WE ARE WITH THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. I NEVER WANT TO SEE NEW ZEALAND GO INTO A RECESSION. IT'S NOT AN ABSOLUTE GUARANTEE. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A FORECAST HERE. - SO IT'S` - BUT THE CONDITIONS GLOBALLY ARE GOING TO MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR ANY COUNTRY. AND OBVIOUSLY, WE'VE ALSO GOT THE ISSUE OF THE FACT THAT INFLATION APPEARS TO BE STICKING AROUND A BIT MORE. THAT MEANS THE RESERVE BANK'S RESPONDING WITH OCR INCREASES. - THAT'S RIGHT. - AND ALL OF THAT LEADS TO WHAT WILL BE A DIFFICULT YEAR. FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, I DON'T WANT A RECESSION, BUT WE HAVE TO WORK TOWARDS HOW WE'RE GOING TO SUPPORT NEW ZEALANDERS THROUGH A PRETTY TOUGH TIME. - THE RESERVE BANK SEEMS TO ADMIT THAT IT HAS ENGINEERED A RECESSION FOR NEW ZEALAND. IS THAT NECESSARY? - EVERYONE IN THE SYSTEM'S GOT DIFFERENT ROLES, AND THE ROLE OF THE RESERVE BANK IS TO GET INFLATION BACK DOWN TO THAT 1% TO 3% BAND. AND PART OF WHAT THEY DO IN THAT IS LOOK AT THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE ECONOMY AND TRY TO REDUCE DEMAND. MY VIEW, AS I'VE SAID, IS THAT WE DON'T HAVE TO GO INTO RECESSION. IT'S WHAT'S CALLED A SOFT LANDING, WHERE, YES, DEMAND AND SUPPLY CAN GET THEMSELVES BACK INTO SYNC, BUT THAT WILL REQUIRE SOME SLOWING DOWN IN THE ECONOMY. MY JOB IS A DIFFERENT ONE IN THE SYSTEM. MY JOB IS TO` I'LL JUST FINISH THIS. MY JOB IS TO SUPPORT NEW ZEALANDERS, TO HELP THEM STAY IN WORK, TO BE ABLE TO GET THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THE RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR HAS HIS JOB; I HAVE MINE. WE TRY TO WORK TOGETHER. - BUT GIVEN THAT ADRIAN ORR IS SAYING THAT, BASICALLY, HE IS TRYING TO ENGINEER A SHALLOW RECESSION, DO YOU STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN HIM? - I'VE GOT CONFIDENCE IN ADRIAN'S ROLE. I MEAN, OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS` - ADRIAN'S ROLE OR ADRIAN ORR? - IN ADRIAN. I WOULDN'T HAVE REAPPOINTED HIM, SIMON, IF I DIDN'T. - BUT TO BEAT INFLATION, THE RESERVE BANK IS SAYING THAT UNEMPLOYMENT HAS TO RISE. HOW MANY KIWIS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO LOSE THEIR JOBS TO BEAT INFLATION? - IT'S THE SAME` IT'S THE SAME POSITION FOR ME, SIMON. I'M ALL ABOUT NEW ZEALANDERS BEING IN WORK. WE'VE GOT A RECORD NUMBER OF NEW ZEALANDERS IN WORK. WE HAVE RECORD LOW UNEMPLOYMENT. IT IS A FACT OF LIFE OF THE FORECASTS THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IS FORECAST TO RISE. AGAIN, I DO NOT WANT UNEMPLOYMENT TO RISE BEYOND WHAT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. - WHAT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY? IF IT'S FULL EMPLOYMENT NOW, WHAT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY? - AND WE WANT AS MANY NEW ZEALANDERS TO SUSTAIN WORK AS POSSIBLE. BUT THERE IS A GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT WE'RE FACING. - SO YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PEOPLE WILL BE LOSING JOBS. - THE FORECASTS TELL US THAT THAT'S THE CASE, BUT I DON'T WANT THAT... - I UNDERSTAND THAT. - ...TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN IT NEEDS TO BE. AND SO, AGAIN, THESE ARE ABOUT THE DIFFERENT ROLES IN THE SYSTEM. WHAT WE'RE ALL TRYING TO ACHIEVE HERE IS A BALANCE. INFLATION IS BAD FOR EVERYBODY. WE ALL KNOW IT NEEDS TO COME DOWN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, PEOPLE BEING IN WORK IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT. AND SO YOU'LL NEVER GET ME TO ARGUE THAT PEOPLE SHOULD BE UNEMPLOYED. I'M IN THE LABOUR PARTY. - (CHUCKLES) - IT'S WHAT WE'RE FOUNDED ON. - I UNDERSTAND THAT. BUT THE FORECASTS, AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, ARE FOR ALMOST 5% UNEMPLOYMENT. AROUND ABOUT ELECTION TIME, THAT'S AN EXTRA 50,000 PEOPLE OUT OF WORK IN A YEAR'S TIME. NOT A GOOD PROGNOSIS, AND IT GETS WORSE. COULD THIS BE AS BAD AS THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS? - WELL, THE DEPTH OF IMPACT OF COVID ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. WHAT WE'VE HAD IN NEW ZEALAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS IS THE FACT THAT OUR ECONOMY HAS BEEN REALLY RESILIENT, PARTLY BECAUSE OF WHAT WE DID IN TERMS OF SUPPORTING PEOPLE THROUGH, BUT PARTLY BECAUSE OUR EXPORT SECTOR HAS DONE WELL, BECAUSE NEW ZEALANDERS ARE GENUINELY WORKING REALLY HARD TO CREATE PRODUCTIVITY IN OUR ECONOMY. SO WE'VE BEEN QUITE INSULATED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS FROM THIS. THERE WERE NEVER, EVER GOING TO BE ANY COSTLESS DECISIONS IN COVID. THERE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE A TIME WHEN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAD TO RESET ITSELF. THE THING IS` - SO WE'RE PAYING FOR IT NOW. - JUST LET ME FINISH THAT. NEW ZEALAND COMES INTO THAT IN ONE OF THE STRONGEST POSITIONS IN THE WORLD. SO WE COME INTO THAT WITH UNEMPLOYMENT AT 3.3%. THAT MEANS THAT WE CAN ABSORB THIS ECONOMIC SHOCK BETTER. BUT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS SOMETHING ABOUT THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CYCLE WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND AND ACCEPT AND SUPPORT NEW ZEALANDERS THROUGH IT. - IS IT THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CYCLE, OR IS IT THE DECISIONS NOT ONLY THAT YOU'VE MADE BUT ALSO THE RESERVE BANK HAS MADE? I MEAN, THE OCR ` BIGGEST JUMP EVER, MORE TO COME; AND SOME ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING THAT IT'S GONE TOO HARD AND WILL CAUSE UNNECESSARY ECONOMIC PAIN. - YEAH, LOOK, I DON'T TEND TO COMMENT ON THOSE SPECIFIC DECISIONS, BUT CLEARLY, WHEN THE RESERVE BANK IS MAKING ITS DECISIONS, IT'S GOT A BALANCE TO STRIKE AS WELL. THEY ARE FACING A SITUATION WHERE INFLATION IS WELL OUTSIDE OF THEIR TARGET BAND. WE ALL KNOW THE DAMAGE HIGH INFLATION CAN CAUSE, PARTICULARLY TO LOW-INCOME PEOPLE. SO THEY HAVE TAKEN THEIR DECISIONS ABOUT HOW TO DO THAT. - HOMEOWNERS ` THE AVERAGE FIXED MORTGAGE RATE IS 3.8% AT THE MOMENT. IF THAT DOES JUMP TO 7% NEXT YEAR ON A 500 K MORTGAGE, THAT'S $1000 EXTRA A MONTH. WHERE ARE THOSE KIWIS GOING TO FIND THAT MONEY? AND THAT'S A PROBLEM THAT ADRIAN ORR HAS GIVEN YOU. - I MEAN, THAT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR SOME HOUSEHOLDS. IT'S IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHEN BANKS LEND, THEY STRESS-TEST, AND THAT'S PART OF THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT WE HAVE. SO THEY'VE STRESS-TESTED THE BORROWERS AT A HIGHER RATE THAN WHAT THEY'RE CURRENTLY PAYING. SO FOR THE VAST BULK OF PEOPLE, THEY WILL GET THROUGH THIS. YES, IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THEM, BUT THERE WON'T BE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES. - THERE IS A BIG SHOT COMING, THOUGH. - YEP. - 46% OF MORTGAGES ARE GOING TO BE RE-FIXED IN THE NEXT YEAR. - THAT'S RIGHT. YOU KNOW, AND PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO MANAGE THEIR WAY THROUGH THAT. ONE OF THE GOOD PIECES OF NEWS IS THAT THEY MANAGE THEIR WAY THROUGH THAT IN WORK AND WITH WAGES HAVING RISEN JUST A LITTLE BIT AHEAD OF INFLATION OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. SO THERE IS A BUFFER BUILT IN. IT DOESN'T STOP IT BEING HARD FOR HOUSEHOLDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MANY HOUSEHOLDS. BUT WE COME INTO THIS WITH HOUSEHOLDS WITH A BETTER STARTING POINT THAN MOST OTHERS IN THE WORLD. - WHAT ABOUT THE BANKS? ARE THEY GOING TO BE THE BIGGER WINNERS FROM THIS AS THE INTEREST RATES RISE? - I THINK WHAT THE BANKS, YOU KNOW, NEED TO DO HERE IS TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THEIR CUSTOMER BASE AND HOW THEY SUPPORT THEIR CUSTOMER BASE. YOU KNOW, BANKS HAVE DONE WELL IN NEW ZEALAND OVER A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME, NOT JUST RECENTLY- - BUT PARTICULARLY RECENTLY ` RECORD PROFITS. - INDEED. AND SO BANKS ` WE'RE ASKING THEM, AND THEY HAVE SAID THIS THEMSELVES, THAT THEY RECOGNISE THAT FOR THOSE CUSTOMERS, PARTICULARLY THOSE WHO'VE BORROWED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, THAT THEY WILL BE UNDER STRAIN IN THIS NEXT PERIOD. AND I DO REINFORCE WHAT I'VE SAID BEFORE. BANKS HAVE A SOCIAL LICENCE TO OPERATE IN NEW ZEALAND, AND OUR STRONG EXPECTATION IS THEY WILL LOOK AFTER CUSTOMERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. - SO YOUR MESSAGE TO THEM IS, 'DON'T KICK PEOPLE OUT OF THEIR HOMES, 'DON'T TAKE THEM TO MORTGAGEE SALES'? - ABSOLUTELY. AND, YOU KNOW, LET'S BE CAREFUL HERE. THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE HITTING IN THAT DIRECTION IS A RELATIVELY LOW PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE. BUT ABSOLUTELY, MY MESSAGE TO THE BANKS IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'VE WORKED TOGETHER THROUGH COVID; THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME WHERE WE WANT THEM TO BE WORKING WITH THEIR CUSTOMERS. AND ACTUALLY, IN FAIRNESS TO THEM, THEY'VE SIGNALLED TO US THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO. - DO YOU ACCEPT THAT GOVERNMENT SPENDING HAS PLAYED A PART IN THIS COST OF LIVING CRISIS? - I ACCEPT THAT GOVERNMENT SPENDING NEEDED TO INCREASE DURING COVID, AND I THINK SO DID MY OPPONENTS' AT THE TIME. THEY MIGHT BE TELLING A DIFFERENT STORY NOW. THAT LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING WAS NECESSARY, BUT WHAT HAPPENS NOW ` AND IS HAPPENING NOW ` IS THAT COMES OFF. SO WE GOT GOVERNMENT SPENDING UP TO AROUND 35% OF GDP ` SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS IN AND AROUND THE GFC AND THE CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKES. IT'S NOW COMING DOWN BY THE END OF THIS YEAR TO 31%, AND IT WILL TRACK DOWN FURTHER FROM THERE. SO THERE WERE NO COSTLESS DECISIONS. WE HAD TO INVEST IN SUPPORTING PEOPLE THROUGH COVID. NOW WE NEED OUR FISCAL POSITION TO CONSOLIDATE, AND THAT IS WHAT WE'RE DOING. - SO PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE PAYING FOR THOSE DECISIONS, AREN'T THEY? AND, YOU AT THE TIME, DID URGE EVERYBODY TO GET OUT THERE AND SPEND, ONCE LOCKDOWNS WERE OVER, TO SUPPORT LOCAL BUSINESSES. THEY HAVE DONE THAT. NOW WE'VE GOT INFLATION. - YEAH, BUT AS I SAY, THERE ARE NO COSTLESS DECISIONS, SIMON. AND I STAND BY THE FACT THAT WE SAVED LIVES AND WE SAVED LIVELIHOODS. WHEN WE DID INITIATIVES LIKE THE WAGE SUBSIDY SCHEME, WHICH IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, THAT'S THE THING THAT KEPT PEOPLE IN WORK. WE ALSO INVESTED HEAVILY IN THE HEALTH SYSTEM TO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE STAYED HEALTHY AND ALIVE. I WILL ALWAYS STAND BY THOSE DECISIONS. - ADRIAN ORR WANTS EVERYBODY ` TO QUOTE HIM ` 'COOL THEIR JETS', INCLUDING YOU. YOU'RE SAYING THERE ARE NO COSTLESS DECISIONS. WHAT GOVERNMENT SPENDING ARE YOU GOING TO CUT BACK ON? - BUT AS I SAY, WE'RE NOW LOOKING TO THAT PERIOD. THAT'S THE PERIOD WE'RE COMING IN NOW. - SO YOU'RE SAYING YOU'VE ALREADY FACTORED ALL IN? - THIS IS THE THING ` I KNOW I HEARD THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION SAY EVERYTHING HAD CHANGED WHEN THE RESERVE BANK MADE THEIR STATEMENT. WELL, I DON'T THINK HE'S BEEN PAYING ATTENTION, BECAUSE WE'VE BEEN FACTORING THIS IN SINCE THE BUDGET IN MAY. WE KNOW WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL WITH OUR SPENDING NOW. THERE ARE SOME CORE THINGS WE'VE GOT TO KEEP SPENDING` - SURE. BUT CAN YOU GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE OF WHERE YOU HAVE TAKEN THAT ADVICE? WHAT SPENDING HAVE YOU CUT OR PUSHED BACK? - BUT IT'S NOT A MATTER OF MAKING A KNEEJERK REACTION LIKE THAT. IT'S AN ABSOLUTE PLAN TO SAY WE NEED TO KEEP INVESTING IN HEALTH; WE NEED TO KEEP INVESTING IN EDUCATION ` THE SERVICES THAT PEOPLE RELY ON. BUT PEOPLE WILL SEE, WHEN WE DO A BUDGET POLICY STATEMENT IN A WEEK OR TWO AND WHEN THEY SEE THE BUDGET NEXT YEAR, THAT WE WILL HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN WHAT WE INVEST IN FROM HERE ON OUT IN ORDER TO BRING OURSELVES BACK TO THAT FISCAL POSITION. - SO YOU HAVE NOT IDENTIFIED ANYTHING, OR PUT OUT PUBLICLY, ANYTHING THAT YOU HAVE ACTUALLY DECIDED TO CUT OR PUSH BACK IN TERMS OF SPENDING. CAN'T NAME ONE THING? - WE WORK EVERY DAY WITH OUR MINISTERS TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY'RE SPENDING WISELY. AND WHEN WE DO DO THE HALF-YEARLY UPDATE IN DECEMBER, PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE, ONCE AGAIN, AS WE DID AT THE BUDGET` SO IN THE BUDGET IN MAY, WE HAD $1b OF SAVINGS THAT WE FOUND. WE WILL` WHEN YOU SEE THE HALF YEARLY UPDATE, YOU'LL SEE HOW WE'VE DONE THAT AGAIN. - SO YOU'RE GOING RIGHT THROUGH IT LINE BY LINE? - AND WE DO THAT EVERY SINGLE DAY, SIMON. WE GO THROUGH AND WE SAY, 'IS THIS SPENDING STILL NECESSARY? 'DO YOU STILL NEED THIS MONEY?' - SO ALL THE MINISTERS ON NOTICE ARE, THEY? - WE TOOK $1b OUT AT BUDGET 2022. AND YOU'LL SEE WHEN WE DO THE HALF-YEARLY UPDATE IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS WHAT WE'VE BEEN CONTINUING TO DO. - THAT SEEMS TO SAY BIG SPENDING TICKETS ARE OFF THE TABLE NEXT YEAR. - I SAID THAT IN THE BUDGET IN MAY. - SO TAX CUTS ` OFF THE TABLE? - WE HAVEN'T SET OUR TAX POLICY. AND SO I CAN'T ANSWER THAT QUESTION. - BUT I CAN'T SEE HOW THEY COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. - WELL, CERTAINLY, WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING OUT TAX POLICY THAT UNNECESSARILY EXACERBATES INFLATION, BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE. - WHAT ABOUT MORE TARGETED POLICIES ` THAT YOU LIKE ` TO HELP PEOPLE OUT? - YEAH, AND AS I SAY, WE WILL ALWAYS LOOK TO DO THAT. WE'RE IN AN INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE ECONOMY, AREN'T WE? BECAUSE THE TWO-QUARTERS OF GROWTH THAT WE HAVEN'T HAD REPORTS ON YET ` QUARTER THREE OF 2022 AND QUARTER FOUR ` ARE BOTH GOING TO BE REALLY STRONG. THEY'RE PREDICTED IN THE RESERVE BANK NUMBERS THIS WEEK TO AMOUNT TO 1.8% GROWTH. ACTUALLY, THAT'S THE LAST TWO QUARTERS OF THIS YEAR AND THE FIRST OF NEXT. THEN WE HAVE THE SHALLOW RECESSION. THAT ACTUALLY IS 1% OF GROWTH. SO IT'S STILL NOT EVEN WHAT WE'VE HAD IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR. SO WE'RE IN A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE ECONOMY IS GROWING, BUT WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE HARD TIMES TO COME. THAT'S WHY YOU PREPARE` - YOU'RE SAVING FOR A RAINY DAY. - EXACTLY. IT'S WHY WE HAVE BEEN CAREFUL TO GET THE BALANCE RIGHT BETWEEN INVESTING AND BEING FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE. - SO IF THE ECONOMY IS DOING SO WELL NOW, WHAT ABOUT A COUPLE OF THINGS ` HALF-PRICE PUBLIC TRANSPORT IS DUE TO FINISH AT THE END OF JANUARY. WILL YOU EXTEND THAT? - SO, CABINET HASN'T MADE A DECISION TO DO THAT. WHAT WE HAVE SAID IS WE WILL ALWAYS LOOK AT THE SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WE'RE IN. NOW, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAPPENED WITH THE FUEL EXCISE DUTY IS THAT'S ACTUALLY BECAUSE OF THE WAY WE COUNT INFLATION IN NEW ZEALAND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED DOWN ON INFLATION BECAUSE IT'S KEPT THE COST OF FUEL DOWN INSIDE NEW ZEALAND. SO WE HAVE TO MAKE THAT JUDGEMENT ALONGSIDE WHETHER, IN THE LONG TERM, WE CAN AFFORD THAT. BECAUSE THAT MONEY... - WELL, THAT'S` YEAH. - ...IS THE MONEY THAT BUILDS THE ROADS. - YEAH, OK. - THAT'S THE MONEY THAT GOES TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT. SO WE HAVE TO STRIKE A BALANCE FOR HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP SUPPORTING NEW ZEALANDERS IN THAT WAY WITHOUT COMPROMISING WHAT WE HAVE TO DO IN THE LONG RUN. - SO THAT'S THE 25c A LITRE FUEL TAX, OR EXCISE, AND THAT'S SUPPOSED TO COME BACK ON IN JANUARY, WHEN INFLATION IS PROBABLY PEAKING AT ABOUT 7.5%. WILL IT PUSH UP INFLATION EVEN MORE? - ACTUALLY, IN THE RESERVE BANK'S FORECAST ` IT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY INFLATION STAYS WHERE IT IS IN THEIR FORECAST, IS BECAUSE THEY'RE FACTORING THAT COMING BACK ON. AS A GOVERNMENT, WE'VE SAID ALL ALONG ` WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES AND WHERE WE ARE. - SO IT'S POSSIBLE? - I'M NOT AVOIDING QUESTION, SIMON, COS CABINET HASN'T TAKEN THAT DECISION. - BUT IT IS POSSIBLE YOU COULD EITHER`? - WELL, CABINET HASN'T TAKEN THE DECISION. - OK. ALL RIGHT. WE ARE USED TO BIG SPENDING PROMISES IN ELECTION YEAR. IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU'VE GOT A FISCAL STRAITJACKET NEXT YEAR. HOW BIG A PROBLEM IS THAT FOR YOU POLITICALLY? - WELL, I THINK WHAT NEW ZEALANDERS WILL WANT IS THE GOVERNMENT TO BE RESPONSIBLE AND CAREFUL, AND THAT'S WHAT WE'VE DONE ALL THE WAY THROUGH. WE'VE STRUCK THIS BALANCE THROUGH COVID OF SUPPORTING AND LOOKING AFTER PEOPLE WHILE ALSO BEING FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE. AND WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO DO THAT. - BUT WHEN ADRIAN ORR ANNOUNCED A SHALLOW RECESSION, POLITICALLY, WHAT WENT THROUGH YOUR MIND? BECAUSE IT'S HAPPENING RIGHT AT THE ELECTION. - WHAT WENT THROUGH MY MIND WAS THAT THIS IS SOMETHING I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR SOME TIME. 2023 IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH YEAR FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. NEW ZEALAND IS AN OPEN TRADING NATION. WE'LL ALWAYS BE IMPACTED BY THAT. SO WE'VE BEEN PREPARING FOR THIS, SIMON. WE'VE BEEN CAREFULLY WORKING OUR WAY TO THE POINT THAT WE'VE FACE THIS ECONOMIC CRISIS WITH MORE PEOPLE IN WORK THAN WE'VE EVER HAD, WITH INCREDIBLY LOW PUBLIC DEBT, WITH WAGES THAT HAVE RISEN FASTER THAN INFLATION. WE'RE AS WELL POSITIONED AS ANY OTHER COUNTRY TO DEAL WITH WHAT IS A CHALLENGING PERIOD. - BUT POLITICALLY, YOU'RE PROBABLY WENT, 'OH, BUGGER.' - (LAUGHS) LOOK, I'VE LEARNED OVER THE TIME I'VE BEEN THE MINISTER OF FINANCE THAT IF YOU REACT THAT WAY TO EVERYTHING THAT YOU SEE, YOU'RE GOING TO BE A PRETTY DEPRESSED PERSON. - SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING NATIONAL'S BEEN HANDED THE ELECTION. - LOOK, THE ELECTION'S A YEAR AWAY. WHAT I` AND BEAR IN MIND THESE FORECASTS OF A RECESSION ARE FORECASTS. I'M GOING TO BE WORKING DAY AND NIGHT TO MAKE SURE THAT NEW ZEALANDERS GET THROUGH WHAT'S GOING TO BE A REALLY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PERIOD IN THE BEST POSSIBLE SHAPE. NEW ZEALANDERS WILL THEN MAKE THEIR JUDGEMENT ON THAT. THEY'VE SEEN WHAT WE DID DURING COVID, AND THEY'LL SEE HOW WE COPE HERE. - SO, JUST FINALLY ` WHAT IS YOUR CHRISTMAS ECONOMIC MESSAGE TO KIWIS? - MY ECONOMIC MESSAGE IS WE'VE WORKED REALLY HARD THROUGH COVID TO GET OURSELVES TO A POINT ` WE'RE AS WELL POSITIONED AS ANYBODY TO DEAL WITH THIS. TIMES ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH IN 2023, BUT THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY IS WELL POSITIONED TO SUPPORT PEOPLE THROUGH THAT. - ARE KIWIS GOING TO BELIEVE YOU, OR ARE KIWIS EVEN GOING TO CARE, GIVEN THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE TO TIGHTEN THEIR BELTS DURING CHRISTMAS? THEY MIGHT VIEW YOU AS THE CHRISTMAS GRINCH AND ADRIAN ORR AS THE CHRISTMAS GRINCH. - LOOK, NEW ZEALAND'S IN A REALLY, REALLY STRONG POSITION TO DEAL WITH THIS, AND I THINK NEW ZEALANDERS WILL MAKE THEIR JUDGEMENTS AS THEY DO IN THE FACE OF THE FACTS WHEN THEY COME TO THE ELECTION NEXT YEAR. I KNOW THAT THIS HAS BEEN A REALLY HARD COUPLE OF YEARS FOR PEOPLE, BUT WE'VE STILL GOT THEIR BACK. - FINANCE MINISTER GRANT ROBERTSON, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME. - THANKS, SIMON. - THAT WAS FINANCE MINISTER GRANT ROBERTSON ` UNDER SOME PRESSURE AS WE END THE YEAR. E WHAI AKE NEI ` STILL TO COME` WE DISSECT THE WEEK'S POLITICAL NEWS WITH OUR PANEL, BRIGITTE MORTON AND JENNA LYNCH. - PLUS ` SENIOR REPORTER CONOR WHITTEN OUT ON THE BY-ELECTION CAMPAIGN TRAIL IN HAMILTON WEST. - HOKI MAI ANO ` WELCOME BACK. NEXT MONTH'S BY-ELECTION IN HAMILTON WEST COULD PROVIDE AN EARLY GLIMPSE OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN ELECTION YEAR. THE BELLWETHER SEAT IS NORMALLY WON BY THE PARTY THAT GOES ON TO RUN THE COUNTRY, AND THIS YEAR, ALL BETS ARE OFF. - SENIOR REPORTER CONOR WHITTEN SPENT THE WEEK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL WITH THE TOP CANDIDATES FOR THE JOB. - CONOR WHITTEN: IT PAYS TO STAY ALERT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. - CANDIDATE FOR THE HAMILTON WEST BY-ELECTION` - I'VE GOT ONE IN MY BACK POCKET ALREADY. - OH, I'VE ALREADY GIVEN` (LAUGHS) - YOU HAVE TO BE UPBEAT... - U2? - YEAH. - MATE. U2 ARE LEGENDARY. THEY ARE TIMELESS. - ...AND READY FOR ANYTHING. - IT'S HOT. VERY HOT. - WE'RE GOING TO BYPASS A NATIONAL MP. - BECAUSE NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO GET. - AND EVEN AS THINGS FALL AROUND` FALL DOWN AROUND US, HERE WE ARE CAMPAIGNING TO REPRESENT THE PEOPLE OF HAMILTON WEST. - IT'S THE SAME UNPREDICTABLE STORY FOR THE BY-ELECTION IN HAMILTON WEST, WITH TWO WEEKS TO GO TILL POLLING DAY. BUT WHOEVER WINS HERE WILL SEND A MESSAGE. THIS IS A SWING SEAT A YEAR OUT FROM AN ELECTION, AND IN EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 CONTESTS, THE PARTY THAT ENDS UP RUNNING THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN THE ONE THAT WINS HAMILTON WEST. - LOOK, HAMILTON IS A UNIQUE PLACE, AND I WOULDN'T WANT IT TO BE SEEN AS AN INDICATOR OF THE GENERAL ELECTION, BECAUSE EVERY ELECTORATE IS DIFFERENT. - IT MAY BE UNIQUE, BUT THE ISSUES IN HAMILTON MIRROR THOSE IN THE REST OF NEW ZEALAND. - OBVIOUSLY, CRIME IS A HUGE ISSUE. - WE'RE TALKING ABOUT CRIME AS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE. - THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE, OBVIOUSLY, IS CRIME. - MIDAS JEWELLERY HAS BEEN HIT BY RAM-RAIDS TWICE IN THE PAST TWO YEARS. - WE HAD A REALLY BAD ONE WHERE A FORD UTE CAME FLYING IN THE SHOP. - MOST OF THE SHOP AND STOCK WAS DAMAGED. - LIKE AN EXPLOSION, REALLY. I WOULD ESTIMATE PROBABLY ABOUT $150,000 WORTH OF DAMAGE. - A THIRD TIME, TEENAGERS WALKED IN WITH HAMMERS. PAUL GRIGGS CHASED THEM OFF WITH AN IRON BAR. - I THINK IF WE HAD ANOTHER BAD RAM-RAID, OR ANOTHER SEVERE ONE, AFTER THOSE LAST COUPLE, YOU'VE GOT TO QUESTION WHETHER IT'S WORTH BEING IN BUSINESS, YOU KNOW? YOU KNOW, COS IT` - THAT'S A PRETTY BIG CALL. - IT IS A BIG CALL. YES. - JUST AROUND THE CORNER, ELLIE ROGERS HAD HER SHOP RAM-RAIDED IN AUGUST. DID IT COST YOU A LOT AS A BUSINESS? - OH, ABSOLUTELY. - $50,000 OF DAMAGE. AND DESPITE VIDEO FOOTAGE, NO ONE'S BEEN CAUGHT. HOW WORRIED ARE HAMILTON BUSINESSES? - THEY'RE PRETTY WORRIED. YEAH, BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT HAPPENING. AND I DON'T THINK YOU HEAR ABOUT HALF OF THEM ON THE NEWS ANYMORE. - NATIONAL CLAIMS TO HAVE THE SOLUTION ` MILITARY BOOT CAMPS FOR REPEAT OFFENDERS. - WE THINK THAT THE YOUTH MILITARY ACADEMY IS A REALLY GOOD PATHWAY TO SUPPORT THEM, SO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES FROM ACTIONS. - BUT THE LAST TIME THE IDEA WAS TRIED, 85% RE-OFFENDED WITHIN JUST A YEAR. - I'LL GIVE YOU A NUMBER ` 500% INCREASE IN RAM-RAIDS SINCE LABOUR CAME TO POWER, AND ONE IN FIVE RAM-RAIDS IN THIS COUNTRY IN WAIKATO. - SO WHAT LEVEL OF REDUCTION IN RAM-RAIDS WOULD BE A SUCCESS? - WELL... UH` LOOK, THE POLICY DOESN'T ANNOUNCE THAT. - NATIONAL'S CANDIDATES ` OUT SELLING THE MESSAGE. - ACTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR US IS REALLY IMPORTANT. - AND WHILE RETAILERS ARE RECEPTIVE, EVEN THEY HAVE RESERVATIONS. - I MEAN, THEY HAVE BEEN TRIED BEFORE, AS WE WELL KNOW. - WELL, THEY'D HAVE TO CATCH THEM FIRST. AND I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE. IT'S A GREAT IDEA IN THEORY, BUT I DON'T KNOW IF IT WOULD WORK IN REALITY. - AND OTHER EXPERTS AREN'T CONVINCED. DO YOU THINK THAT WORKS? - I DON'T THINK THAT WORKS. YOUTH WORKER TOM HUNT DEALS WITH 20 YOUNG PEOPLE WHO'VE CARRIED OUT RAM-RAIDS IN HAMILTON. - I DON'T THINK PUNISHMENT... STRAIGHT AWAY, AS` LIKE DRILLING THEM IS GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING. - HE SAYS THE CITY NEEDS MORE YOUTH WORKERS. - THAT'S WHERE THE CHANGE WILL COME, WHETHER THE OUTCOMES ARE TO JUST CHANGE THE WORLD OF THAT YOUNG PERSON. - HALF AN HOUR SOUTH IN TE AWAMUTU... WELCOME TO MY GYM. IT'S LOVELY TO HAVE YOU HERE. I LOVE MY GYM SO MUCH. - ...LABOUR CANDIDATE GEORGIE DANSEY IS CHECKING IN ON HER BUSINESS. - SINCE THE CAMPAIGN STARTED, I HAVE TO SAY MY GYM ATTENDANCE HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY LOW. - THE ECONOMY AND COST OF LIVING ARE ALSO FRONT OF VOTERS' MINDS. - FOR ME, THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE COST OF LIVING FOR PEOPLE. - THAT'S A REFLECTION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S MANAGEMENT, ISN'T IT? - UM, I THINK THIS IS HAPPENING ACROSS THE WORLD. - THIS WEEK, THE PRIME MINISTER JOINED THE CAMPAIGN IN HAMILTON, SHOWING OFF INVESTMENTS IN HOUSING AND INFRASTRUCTURE. BUT THERE WERE SIGNS THE CITY IS STRUGGLING. - THE PRIME MINISTER SPENT THE DAY THERE CELEBRATING THE GOVERNMENT'S HOUSING ACHIEVEMENTS. BUT NEWSHUB CAN REVEAL THERE ARE NEARLY 700 CHILDREN LIVING IN HAMILTON MOTELS. - DANSEY SAYS SHE WOULD PUSH HER PARTY FOR MORE. - AND MAKE SURE THAT AS A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT FOR HAMILTON WEST, I'M BANGING ON MINISTERS' DOORS AND MAKING SURE THEY'RE HEARING ABOUT ALL THESE ISSUES. - AND YOU HAVE THEM RIGHT HERE. SO WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO ASK THEM? - (LAUGHS) - SHE'S ALREADY SHOWING US. - LOOK, I` LOOK, I'VE HAD` I'VE HAD THEM BOTH HERE BEFORE, AND THEY'RE HERE AGAIN, AND THEY'RE COMING BEFORE THE ELECTION, AND WE'RE HAVING THESE CONVERSATIONS AS WE GO. - THE BY-ELECTION WAS BROUGHT ON BY GAURAV SHARMA, THE FORMER LABOUR MP WHO TURNED ON HIS PARTY... - YOU'VE GOT TO STAND UP AND TAKE A STAND. - ...THEN RESIGNED BEFORE HE WAS PUSHED. - YOU'RE NOT BACK IN THERE YET? - WELL, NO. I'M WAITING FOR YOU TO VOTE FOR ME. - OHH. - WILL YOU? - (CHUCKLES) - REMINDERS ARE NEVER FAR AWAY ON THE GROUND. - WHO'S RESIGNED? OH, THE... - THE PREVIOUS... - ...INDIAN FELLOW. - GAURAV SHARMA, YEAH. - 44% OF VOTERS BELIEVE LABOUR HANDLED THE SAGA BADLY. - LOOK, I THINK LABOUR DID THE BEST THEY COULD. - DO YOU THINK VOTERS WILL PUNISH YOU FOR HOW THAT PLAYED OUT IN PARLIAMENT? - NO, I DON'T THINK SO. - BUT SHARMA STILL BELIEVES HE CAN WORK WITH LABOUR. HE'S STARTING A NEW CENTRIST PARTY AND CLAIMS IT COULD GO WITH EITHER SIDE. DO YOU THINK THEY'D WANT TO WORK WITH YOU? - WELL, YOU KNOW, THAT'S A QUESTION FOR THEM. - THE PARTY'S FIRST POLICY AIMED AT COST OF LIVING ` REMOVING GST ON FOOD. - BECAUSE IT AFFECTS EVERYONE, WHETHER YOU'RE RICH OR POOR. YOU KNOW, YOU COULD BE A DOCTOR; YOU COULD BE A PATIENT; YOU KNOW, YOU COULD BE A TRADIE. EVERYBODY'S GOTTA EAT. - ACT IS TARGETING IMMIGRATION... - IMMIGRATION IS ANOTHER ISSUE THAT FITS INTO THE COST OF LIVING. A LOT OF IT'S TO DO WITH JUST WAGE PRICE INFLATION AND THE PRODUCTIVITY ISSUES THERE, YOU KNOW. IT PUSHES PRICES UP. - ...LAUNCHING THEIR NEW IMMIGRATION POLICY AT HAMILTON'S MODERN TRANSPORT ENGINEERS. BUSINESS IS BOOMING FOR THESE TRAILER MANUFACTURERS, BUT THEY'RE STRUGGLING TO BRING IN MIGRANT STAFF. - A PLACE LIKE THIS WOULD GET FASTER PROCESSING TIMES. IT WOULDN'T HAVE TO ARGUE ABOUT WHETHER THE SKILLS ARE NEEDED. - ACT WOULD REPLACE TEMPORARY WORK VISAS, BUT THEIR POLICY COMES AT A COST ` EMPLOYERS WOULD HAVE TO PAY A FEE TO GET WORKERS, ONE THAT GOES UP AND DOWN WITH DEMAND. - IT'LL GO AS HIGH AS PEOPLE ARE PREPARED TO PAY. IT'S ABOUT SETTING A PRICE TO BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND. AND THAT'S A FAR SMARTER IDEA. - ACT'S JAMES MCDOWALL IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE WHO'S A CURRENT SITTING MP. HE'S COMPETING WITH NATIONAL'S TAMA POTAKA FOR THE SAME POOL OF VOTERS ON THE CENTRE-RIGHT. ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT RIGHT-WING VOTERS SPLITTING THE VOTE IN HAMILTON WEST? - THEY CAN VOTE FOR WHOEVER THEY LIKE. - ONE THING THE CANDIDATES ALL SHARE IN COMMON ` ALL SEE THEMSELVES AS THE UNDERDOG. - I'VE BEEN DESCRIBED AS THE UNDERDOG BEFORE. AND AS YOU KNOW, I'VE BEEN DESCRIBED AS THE DARK HORSE AS WELL. - IF YOU LOOK AT THE STATS, THE LAST SIX ELECTIONS, FIVE OF THEM HAVE GONE TO NATIONAL. - SO IT'S A VERY MUCH GRASSROOTS-LED CAMPAIGN. - SOMEONE HAS TO WIN IN THE GARDEN CITY, WHERE IT WON'T JUST BE ABOUT ONE BY-ELECTION... - CAN WE TRY IT? - ...BUT READING THE TEA LEAVES FOR ELECTION YEAR. - ABSOLUTELY. SENIOR REPORTER CONOR WHITTEN WITH THAT REPORT. AND IT'LL BE FASCINATING TO SEE THOSE RESULTS, COMING IN IN JUST TWO WEEKS' TIME. - BUT COMING UP ` OUR POLITICAL PANEL, JENNA LYNCH AND BRIGITTE MORTEN, ON THE BY-ELECTION AND THE RECESSION AND THE WEEK IN POLITICS. BUT FIRST ` WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN ONLINE? FINN HOGAN BRINGS US HIS DIGITAL POWER RANKINGS. HOKI MAI ANO ` WELCOME BACK. WELL, ADRIAN ORR MIGHT BE ASKING US TO 'COOL OUR JETS', BUT THAT ISN'T STOPPING LABOUR FROM SPLASHING THE CASH ACROSS SOCIAL MEDIA, DROPPING ALMOST 200K ON FACEBOOK ADVERTISING IN THE PAST 90 DAYS. - HERE IS DIGITAL EDITOR FINN HOGAN ON WHETHER IT'S WORKING AND WHO'S UP AND WHO'S DOWN ONLINE. - WELL, GOOD MORNING, REBECCA. IF WE CHECK IN ON OUR TOP 10, IT'S A TWO-HORSE RACE AT THE TOP BETWEEN LUXON AND ARDERN, WITH ARDERN JUST IN THE LEAD FOR OVERALL BEST ENGAGEMENT ON FACEBOOK. BUT THE RACE HAS TIGHTENED A LOT SINCE LAST TIME WE CHECKED IN, AND THIS IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LUXON, SINCE HE STARTED WITH FAR FEWER FOLLOWERS THAN ARDERN DID. ARDERN IS ALSO THE ONLY MP IN THIS PERIOD WE'VE LOOKED AT TO LOSE FOLLOWERS ` BUT YOU CAN'T READ TOO MUCH INTO THAT, BECAUSE SHE'S GOT TWO MILLION FOLLOWERS OVERALL, AND A LOT OF THOSE ARE MADE UP OF OVERSEAS FANS WHO AREN'T FOLLOWING OUR POLITICS CLOSELY. BUT STILL, OVERALL, NOT A GREAT SIGN. JACINDA MANIA HAS DEFINITELY FADED. - OK, MAYBE LUXON'S GOT SOME WORK TO DO INTERNATIONALLY. SO THOSE ARE THE LEADERS, FINN, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE PARTIES? - WELL, AGAIN, NATIONAL'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE PRETTY HAPPY HERE. THEY'RE COMFORTABLY IN THE LEAD IN OVERALL ENGAGEMENT, AND, RELATIVELY SHOCKINGLY, LABOUR'S ACTUALLY DROPPED DOWN TO THIRD PLACE OVERALL IN OVERALL ENGAGEMENT ` THE FIRST TIME THAT'S HAPPENED IN MY MEMORY. THAT LEAVES THE OUTDOOR AND FREEDOMS PARTY TO SLIP INTO THAT SECOND SPOT. NOW, THAT REALLY DOES GO TO SHOW THAT THAT ANGER THAT MOTIVATED THE ANTI-MANDATE MOVEMENT HASN'T ACTUALLY DISAPPEARED. BUT` HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME BIG PATCHES OF SALT WITH THIS AS WELL. FIRSTLY, THEY'RE POSTING THREE TIMES AS MUCH AS NATIONAL IS EACH DAY, SO OF COURSE YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A BUMP IN NUMBERS THERE. AND THEN ` THE USUAL CAVEAT HERE ` CLICKS DO NOT MEAN VOTES. - WELL, OK, THAT'S ORGANIC REACH; BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS IS PAID FOR, FINN? - YEAH, THERE'S A COLOSSAL AMOUNT OF MONEY BEING SPENT ON FACEBOOK. THE OLD ADRIAN ORR BELT-TIGHTENING APPROACH HASN'T REACHED THE SOCIAL TEAMS, APPARENTLY. LABOUR HAS DROPPED NEARLY $200,000 ON FACEBOOK ADS IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS ALONE; ACT NOT THAT FAR BEHIND, AT JUST OVER 130,000; BUT INTERESTINGLY, IF YOU LOOK AT NATIONAL, THEY'VE SPENT UNDER 20,000, AND IT JUST GOES TO SHOW THAT SPENDING MONEY ON FACEBOOK ISN'T ALWAYS A WISE INVESTMENT. YOU CAN GET THE SAME RESULTS FOR FREE PROVIDED YOU CAN SEE WHICH WAY THE WINDS ARE BLOWING POLITICALLY AND CAPITALISING. - VERY GOOD. AND WHO DOES YOUR FINAL HONOURABLE MENTION OF THE YEAR GO TO, FINN? - WELL, LOOK, THERE COULD BE ONLY ONE, COULDN'T THERE, REBECCA? IT GOES TO ELON MUSK. I THINK THAT GUY REALLY TOOK THE SILICON VALLEY MANTRA OF 'MOVE FAST AND BREAK THINGS' A LITTLE BIT TOO LITERALLY. BUT I THINK THE CHAOS AT TWITTER IS ACTUALLY INSTRUCTIVE OF A DEEPER PROBLEM FOR SOCIAL MEDIA AND TECH. IF YOU LOOK AT PLACES LIKE META ` 70% OF THEIR STOCK VALUE GONE IN THE PAST YEAR. SNAPCHAT ` DOWN 80%. EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK ` AMAZON, GOOGLE, EVEN DISNEY ` THEY'RE HAEMORRHAGING MONEY AND THEY'RE HAEMORRHAGING STAFF. AND PARTICULARLY FOR THE OLDER FORMS OF SOCIAL MEDIA, LIKE FACEBOOK, I JUST THINK THE GOLDEN AGE IS WELL AND TRULY OVER. THE YOUNGER USERS ARE FLEEING TO APPS LIKE TIKTOK AND TO BEREAL. GOVERNMENTS AND USERS ARE BOTH INHERENTLY SUSPICIOUS NOW OF THE TOXIC EFFECTS ON OUR CULTURE AND OUR POLITICS. I DON'T KNOW WHAT COMES NEXT, BUT THE AGE OF ENDLESS MONEY AND ENDLESS GROWTH IS GONE. - WELL, FINN, I CAN'T LET YOU GO WITHOUT MENTIONING BEAU PETERS, THAT WONDERFUL CHOCOLATE LAB, WONDERFUL COMPANION TO WINSTON PETERS. - YES. REST IN PEACE, BEAU PETERS. WINSTON'S LONG-TIME COMPANION HAS PASSED AWAY THIS WEEK. AND I JUST THINK IT'S AN INTERESTING SIDE EFFECT OF OUR POLITICS ONLINE THAT WE ALMOST SEEM TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THE PETS OF POLITICIANS THAN THE POLITICIANS THEMSELVES ` LIKE, WHETHER IT'S PADDLES THE CAT; LARRY THE CAT IN DOWNING STREET; BEAU; BIDEN'S DOG, MAJOR ` IT JUST SEEMS THIS UNIVERSAL LOVE OF PETS SORT OF CUTS THROUGH THE PARTISAN MUCK IN QUITE A NICE WAY, AND SO I REALLY HOPE THAT WHATEVER ENDS UP REPLACING FACEBOOK AT LEAST HOLDS ON TO THAT ELEMENT. - (CHUCKLES) FINN HOGAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR DIGI POWER RANKINGS. - ALWAYS A PLEASURE, REBECCA. - WELL, FASCINATING STUFF FROM FINN THERE. AND TO DISCUSS THAT AND ALL THE POLITICS OF THE WEEK, I'M JOINED BY OUR PANEL ` SMALL BUT WELL FORMED. OUR THIRD PANELLIST HAD TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF A FAMILY EMERGENCY, BUT LUCKILY, WE HAVE HERE NEWSHUB'S POLITICAL EDITOR, JENNA LYNCH ` WELCOME ` - MORENA. - ...AND DIRECTOR AT FRANKS OGILVIE LAW, BRIGITTE MORTEN. WELCOME TO YOU. - MORENA. - I WANT TO DIVE INTO SOMETHING THAT FINN WAS TALKING ABOUT. 200K SPEND BY LABOUR IN THE PAST 90 DAYS ON SOCIAL. IT SEEMS LIKE A LOT. DO YOU THINKS THAT'S A LOT? - IT IS A HECK OF A LOT OF MONEY FOR LABOUR TO BE SPENDING. INTERESTING AS WELL, BECAUSE THE NATIONAL PARTY HAS PICKED UP ITS SOCIAL MEDIA GAME. THERE IS A LOT MORE CONTENT GOING OUT FROM NATIONAL ACROSS INSTAGRAM. THEY'VE EVEN STARTED A TIKTOK ACCOUNT, I THINK. SO` MAYBE IN RESPONSE TO SEEING MORE OF THAT FROM NATIONAL, BUT ALSO THOSE DISASTROUS POLL RESULTS THEY'VE BEEN SEEING SURELY HAVE SPURRED ON A BIT OF THE SPENDING. - YEAH, WELL, WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE TIGHTENING OUR BELTS, BUT NOT THEM. - NOT THEM. I THINK ALSO IT'S INTERESTING TO CONTRAST THAT TO THE LEAD-UP TO THE LAST ELECTION, WHERE PROPORTIONALLY LABOUR SPENT MUCH LESS BECAUSE THEY GOT THAT ORGANIC REACH, MOSTLY THROUGH THE PRIME MINISTER'S POPULARITY. CLEARLY, THAT IS NOT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. THEY'RE HAVING TO TIP MONEY IN RATHER THAN JUST RELYING ON PEOPLE SHARING IT OUT OF PURE LOVE FOR THE PM. - AH. SO AN INTERESTING TURNING POINT, PERHAPS. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT GRANT ROBERTSON NOW AND HIS INTERVIEW WITH SIMON SHEPHERD JUST NOW. HE KEEPS SAYING THAT THE RECESSION IS JUST A FORECAST; IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY. BUT THE RESERVE BANK SAYS IT IS ENGINEERING A RECESSION. SO WE SEEM TO HAVE TWO SORT OF COUNTERFORCES. WHO IS RIGHT, DO YOU THINK, BRIGITTE? - I DON'T THINK ANYONE IS GOING TO BE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. WHAT I PICKED UP FROM THE INTERVIEW IS THAT THE MINISTER OF FINANCE IS QUITE TONE DEAF AS TO WHAT IS HAPPENING THERE ON THE GROUND. I THINK TRYING TO PUSH DOWN EXPECTATIONS AND SAYING IT'S NOT MUCH OF A WORRY THAT A RECESSION COULD HAPPEN IS NOT REFLECTING WHAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING. THIS WEEK, EVERYONE I SPOKE TO WAS CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING NEXT YEAR. EVEN IF THEY HAVE A MORTGAGE OR NOT, IT'S JUST ` WHAT IS GOING TO BE HAPPENING ACROSS OUR ECONOMY? TO HAVE THOSE SORT OF JOVIAL MOMENTS FROM THE MINISTER OF FINANCE THERE ` HIM NOT TAKING ANY RESPONSIBILITY WHATSOEVER FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S SPENDING OR ROLE IN THIS ` INDICATES TO ME THAT HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND WHAT THE PAIN IS THAT PEOPLE ARE ALREADY FEELING. - IT'S INTERESTING, ISN'T IT? I HEARD 'SHALLOW RECESSION' FROM GRANT ROBERTSON THERE, AND THAT DOESN'T COME AS MUCH COMFORT TO PEOPLE ` A 'SHALLOW RECESSION'. DOES IT? THAT'S A NARRATIVE-BUILDING KIND OF EXERCISE, ISN'T IT? - IT'S AN INTERESTING FRAMING THAT HE'S GOING FOR. IT'S AN INTERESTING STRATEGY THAT HE'S GOING FOR. I THINK TRYING TO TELL PEOPLE THAT THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A RECESSION WHEN THE RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR SAYS THERE IS ` WHY NOT MANAGE EXPECTATIONS? HEY, IF YOU MANAGE TO STOP A RECESSION ` WELL DONE, FINANCE MINISTER, YOU KNOW? IF HE'S TELLING PEOPLE HE CAN HEAD IT OFF, AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT BEFORE, AND HE DOESN'T MANAGE TO DO THAT, THAT'S A FAILURE. - YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. FOR MOST OF THE YEAR, WE HAVE HEARD FROM GRANT ROBERTSON, ACTUALLY, THAT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS HAPPENING OVERSEAS; IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT HE CAN CONTROL AND IT'S LARGELY DUE TO OVERSEAS FACTORS. BUT NOW WE ARE` IT SEEMS THAT WE'RE GETTING SOME EMPATHY FROM HIM AND MAYBE MORE OF A RECKONING FOR HIM AT THE END OF THE YEAR. WHAT DO YOU THINK? - YEAH, I DON'T THINK SO AT ALL. I DON'T THINK HE IS AT ALL TAKING THAT RECKONING. HE'S REALLY DEFENDING ALL OF THE SPENDING. AND HE IS GOING BACK TO SOME OF THE KEY THINGS ` THERE WAS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR, SAY, THE WAGE SUBSIDY, AND TRYING TO GLOSS OVER` YOU KNOW, THEM USING THE COVID FUND FOR THINGS LIKE CAMERAS ON FISHING BOATS AND A LOT OF WASTED SPENDING. WE HAD THE PIECE THIS WEEK ABOUT HOW MUCH IS BEING SPENT IN MENTAL HEALTH, BUT NOT A SINGLE NEW ACUTE BED. THAT KINDA SPENDING IS ACTUALLY THE WASTEFUL SPENDING THAT IS IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SITUATION WE ARE IN NOW, WITHOUT GETTING THE OUTCOMES WE NEED. - WE HEARD FROM THE RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR, ADRIAN ORR, AT THAT SELECT COMMITTEE THIS WEEK THAT, JENNA, THAT... THAT THE RESERVE BANK` HE ADMITTED THAT THE RESERVE BANK HAD PRINTED TOO MUCH MONEY ` HE SAID YES. DO WE NEED AN INQUIRY? - THE GOVERNMENT WOULD PROBABLY ARGUE THAT` WHILE THERE ARE CALLS FOR AN INQUIRY FROM THE OPPOSITION, THE GOVERNMENT WILL PROBABLY ARGUE THAT THERE DOESN'T NEED TO BE INQUIRY WHILE THEY'RE STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS CRISIS. SO PROBABLY, THEY WILL ARGUE THAT IT CAN BE COVERED BY THE COVID INQUIRY THAT THEY ARE PLANNING TO DO. THEY ARE PLANNING TO DO, POSSIBLY, A ROYAL COMMISSION INTO THE WHOLE COVID CRISIS, SO I THINK THEY ARE PLANNING TO SHELVE IT INTO THAT ONE RATHER THAN DO A SPECIFIC INQUIRY INTO THE RESERVE BANK. - AND WHAT DID YOU THINK ABOUT THE COMMENTS FROM ORR THIS WEEK? BECAUSE HE WAS USING FEAR, WASN'T HE, REALLY, WITH KIWIS, THAT WE SHOULD STOP PUSHING FOR PAY RISES AND TIGHTEN OUR BELTS AND CURB OUR SPENDING BEFORE CHRISTMAS. - I THINK THE WAGE INCREASE IS A DANGEROUS SPACE FOR ROBERTSON, BECAUSE AT THE MOMENT HE IS FACING A LOT OF CALLS FROM PARTICULARLY THE UNIONS TO GET SOME OF THOSE PAY SECTOR INCREASES. SO TEACHERS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE; THE TERTIARY SECTOR; YOU'VE GOT NURSES CALLING OUT FOR FURTHER SUPPORT. BUT HE CAN'T REALLY ACTUALLY PROVIDE. HE HAS TO SHOW RESTRAINT, I THINK, IN THOSE WAGE NEGOTIATIONS, BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT THAT DANGER OF THAT WAGE PRICE SPIRAL THAT IS GOING TO INCREASE INFLATION AND EMBED IT EVEN FURTHER. - I WANT TO SWITCH SIDES NOW, I SUPPOSE. NATIONAL WAS ALSO TAKING NOTICE OF THE FINANCIAL INFORMATION DELIVERED BY ADRIAN ORR THIS WEEK, AND HE` NATIONAL IS GOING TO REVIEW ITS TAX POLICY. HE'S HAD TO SWALLOW A DEAD RAT HERE, HASN'T HE, LUXON? BUT BETTER TO DO IT NOW THAN AT THE START OF ELECTION YEAR. - YEAH. IT WAS PROBABLY A CONVENIENT EXCUSE TO DO IT RIGHT NOW. NATIONAL HAS BEEN SOFTENING ITS LANGUAGE ON DROPPING THAT 39% TAX RATE FOR SOME TIME, AND THEY WERE WAITING FOR THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY. SO WHAT WAS A PRETTY ROTTEN CHRISTMAS PRESENT FOR EVERYBODY ELSE WAS QUITE GLEEFUL FOR THE NATIONAL PARTY. THEY GOT TO GET SOMETHING OFF THE BOOKS THAT WAS POLITICALLY UNPOPULAR ` CUTTING TAX FROM THE TOP 2% OF EARNERS IN A COST OF LIVING CRISIS WHILE THE PEOPLE AT THE BOTTOM ARE DOING IT TOUGH WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A VOTE WINNER. LABOUR WAS SMASHING THEM ABOUT WITH THIS STICK ` YOU KNOW, TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY ` AND THEY'VE JUST TAKEN THAT STICK RIGHT OFF THEIR HANDS. SO QUITE CONVENIENT FOR THEM, I THINK. - SOME FLIP-FLOPPING AGAIN, THOUGH, FROM CHRIS LUXON, OR U-TURNING, OR A POLICY DOUGHNUT ` THESE ARE TERMS WHICH ARE QUICKLY BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH HIS LEADERSHIP. HE NEEDS TO DITCH THEM QUICKLY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT YEAR, DOESN'T HE? - I THINK ABSOLUTELY THEY HAVE TO GO IN WITH CERTAIN POLICIES, BUT I WOULDN'T SAY THAT THIS WAS A FLIP-FLOP. BUILDING ON WHAT JENNA SAID, YOU'VE SEEN THE SOFTENING AROUND IT. THEY HAVE BEEN READING NOT JUST THE ACCOUNTS BUT ALSO THE ROOM ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE WANT. A KEY PART OF NATIONAL'S PLATFORM FOR NEXT YEAR IS ABOUT RESPONSIBLE FISCAL MANAGERS. THEY HAVE PUT IT ON TO THE TABLE THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO MAKE THE HARD DECISIONS, WHICH THEY HAD TO DO THIS WEEK. IT IS A HARD DECISION TO MAKE. BUT YOU ARE NOT SEEN THAT REFLECTED FROM THE GOVERNMENT IN TERMS OF THEM SAYING, 'ACTUALLY, WE'RE PREPARED TO SAY 'THAT WE'RE NOT GONNA DELIVER ON SOME OF THE THINGS WE PROMISED 'BECAUSE WE DON'T THINK IT'S SUSTAINABLE ANYMORE TO DO SO.' - UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH, FOR NATIONAL AND FOR CHRISTOPHER LUXON, IT WAS COMING OFF THE BACK OF A WEEK WHERE HE WAS FLIPPING AROUND THE CLEAN CAR STANDARD OR CLEAN CAR DISCOUNT, OR` COULDN'T QUITE FIGURE OUT HIS POLICY ON THAT. SO THE NARRATIVE WAS ABLE TO BE BUILT BY THE GOVERNMENT THAT HE WAS IN THIS CONSTANT STATE OF U-TURN. HE NEEDS TO BE QUITE CAREFUL, IF HE IS GOING TO MAKE PROMISES, TO STICK TO THEM. BECAUSE THEN IT BECOMES A TRUST ISSUE FOR VOTERS. IF HE IS GOING TO DO A BIT OF THIS FLIP-FLOPPING, IT'S LIKE, 'WHAT CAN WE BELIEVE THAT YOU ARE PUTTING ON THE TABLE?' - YEAH, AND VOTERS ARE STILL GETTING TO KNOW CHRISTOPHER LUXON, AREN'T THEY? SO THAT TRUST IS STILL BUILDING. IT'S REALLY CRUCIAL FOR HIM, ISN'T IT? - YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. AND I THINK THE WAY THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS FRAMED IT AGAINST HIM THIS WEEK IS THAT INSTEAD OF RECOGNISING THAT THERE WERE ALWAYS GOING TO DROP THIS POLICY, THAT` THEY'RE SAYING THEY'VE JUST SEEN THESE ACCOUNTS AND THEY'RE PANICKING AND DROPPING POLICY LIKE FLIES, SO IT OPENS THEM UP TO THAT ATTACK LINE AS WELL. - I SUPPOSE IT SHUTS DOWN THE LIZ LUXON ATTACK LINE. YOU WIN SOME; YOU LOSE SOME. - VERY CONVENIENT. - ABSOLUTELY. I WANT TO TALK BRIEFLY ABOUT SANDRINGHAM, BECAUSE WE KNOW THE PRIME MINISTER IS HEADING THERE THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A FATAL STABBING OF A DAIRY WORKER IN HER ELECTORATE THIS WEEK, AND SHE FACED SOME CRITICISM FOR NOT GOING IMMEDIATELY HEADING OFF TO THE CHATHAM ISLANDS, JENNA. - YEAH, I THINK THE ACT PARTY JUMPED IN AND CRITICISED HER FOR DOING THAT. I THINK TRYING TO RESCHEDULE A TRIP TO THE CHATHAMS IS A BIT DIFFICULT, TO BE FAIR TO HER, BUT SHE IS HEADING THERE TODAY TO SEE THE COMMUNITY. THIS IS NOT ONLY AS PRIME MINISTER, BUT OBVIOUSLY, IT IS HER LOCAL ELECTORATE, IN HER LOCAL NEIGHBOURHOOD AS WELL. JUST AN INDICATOR OF THE CURRENT CRIME ISSUE THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS FACING. - SHE NEEDS TO GET THERE, DOESN'T SHE? SHE NEEDS TO GET OUT THERE TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE ON HER OWN ELECTORATE ON THIS ISSUE. - YEAH. BUT I THINK ALSO THIS IS A FLIP-FLOP FROM HER, BECAUSE IT WASN'T THAT SHE JUST SAID EARLIER IN THE WEEK, 'I'VE GOT THIS CHATHAM ISLANDS VERY IMPORTANT VISIT TO DO BEFORE I CAN ACTUALLY GET THERE.' WHAT SHE SAID WAS THAT IT WOULD BE INAPPROPRIATE TO BE THERE, THAT WOULD IT WOULD BE INTERVENING IN A POLICE INVESTIGATION. SHE SEEMS TO HAVE FORGOTTEN, OF COURSE, HER APPEARANCES FOLLOWING THE MOSQUE ATTACKS OR WHITE ISLAND, WHEN SHE HAD THAT IN MIND. SO I THINK THE PRESSURE HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN THAT SHE COULD NO LONGER HIDE FROM THE CRIME STATS. WE SAW FROM THAT HAMILTON WEST STORY JUST HOW BAD PEOPLE ARE FEELING ON THE GROUND ABOUT CRIME AT THE MOMENT. - YEAH, IT IS GOING TO BE A TOP ISSUE HEADING INTO ELECTION YEAR. I WANT TO TOUCH BRIEFLY ON THE 'MAKE IT 16' CAMPAIGN. A SMART GROUP OF 16-YEAR-OLDS GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE SUPREME COURT ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE. - YEAH. I THINK IT'S BEEN A BIT MISREPORTED, MOSTLY BY THE GREENS ` THEY ARE PUSHING THIS NARRATIVE THAT THE SUPREME COURT HAS FOUND THAT THIS IS UNJUSTIFIED DISCRIMINATION. BUT WHAT THEY ACTUALLY FOUND WAS THE CROWN DIDN'T MAKE THE CASE ENOUGH FOR THAT JUSTIFICATION. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE DISCRIMINATORY TO NOT ALLOW 16- AND 17-YEAR-OLDS TO VOTE. I THINK THE PROBLEM THEY HAVE IS THAT JUST AT THIS TIME, GIVEN ALL THESE ISSUES WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, IT IS ONE OF THEM LOWEST PRIORITIES FOR MOST PEOPLE. AND FRANKLY, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RESOURCES GO INTO GETTING THAT NEXT LEVEL OF PEOPLE UP TO VOTE ` 18- 24-YEAR-OLDS, WHO HAVE A LOW TURNOUT NOW, LOWEST ENGAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM; GET THEM INVOLVED, SPEND RESOURCES THERE BEFORE WE GO ON THIS FLIGHT OF FANCY. - JENNA, I WANT TO ASK YOU ` THE RIGHT SAY THAT THIS WILL FAVOUR THE LEFT. AND THAT IS` NATIONAL AND ACT ARE NOT FOR THIS POLICY. LABOUR SAYS IT'S SUPPORTIVE, OR JACINDA ARDERN DOES, ANYWAY. BUT IT MAY HAVE` WILL IT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PARTY VOTE? - YEAH, I THINK SO. THE RIGHT'S ARGUMENT IS THAT IT WOULD` YOUNGER VOTERS TEND TO VOTE LEFT. - 120,000 OF THEM, THOUGH? - I'M NOT SURE IT WILL HAVE IMPACT THAT THE RIGHT-LEANING PARTIES ARE, UM, PLAYING IT UP TO HAVE. BUT EITHER WAY, THIS THING IS DOOMED TO FAIL, RIGHT? YOU NEED 75% MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT TO PASS IT. ACT AND NATIONAL AREN'T SUPPORTING IT, SO IT'S DONE FOR. BUT WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WHETHER THEY TAKE IT TO THE LOCAL BODY ELECTIONS. THE GOVERNMENT WOULD ONLY NEED ITS WHOPPING MAJORITY TO GET THAT THROUGH, SO THEY MAY LOOK AT CHANGING THE LAW IN THAT SPACE AND USE IT AS A TRAINING-WHEELS SCENARIO. - KICK IT TO TOUCH FOR A LITTLE WHILE. SEE WHAT IMPACT IT HAS ON LOCAL POLITICS. - YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. - WONDERFUL. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US ON OUR PANEL THIS MORNING, JENNA LYNCH AND BRIGITTE MORTON. WELL, E HAERE AKE NEI ` MILITARY STRATEGIST MICK RYAN ON PUTIN'S AMBITIONS AFTER NINE MONTHS OF WAR; PLUS, RISING STAR OF THE NATIONAL PARTY ERICA STANFORD SHARES HER BACKSTORY. HOKI MAI ANO ` WELCOME BACK. WELL, WINTER IS CLOSING IN, AND RUSSIAN STRIKES HAVE KNOCKED OUT THE POWER KEEPING MILLIONS OF UKRAINIANS WARM. - IT'S BEEN NINE MONTHS SINCE RUSSIA INVADED, AND NOW THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT IS ASKING ITS CITIZENS TO HOLD ON UNTIL SPRING. (BOOM!) - REPORTER: THIS ROCKET IS THE FIRST OF THIS WAR TO HIT A NATO COUNTRY. - WE'VE BEEN CRYSTAL CLEAR THAT WE WILL DEFEND EVERY INCH OF NATO TERRITORY. - IT IS TIME TO RECOGNISE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR WHAT IT IS ` A MENACE, A ROGUE STATE AND A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM. - REPORTER: PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKIY SAID HE BELIEVES THE KREMLIN IS LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A POSSIBLE NUCLEAR ATTACK. - THEY BEGIN TO PREPARE THEIR SOCIETY. THAT IS VERY DANGEROUS. - IT IS BRUTALLY COLD, BUT THE BITTER REALITY OF THIS WAR HAS NEVER ESCAPED UKRAINIANS ` EVEN IF THE GLOBAL FATIGUE HAS STARTED TO SET IN. - WELL, MICK RYAN IS A RETIRED AUSTRALIAN MAJOR-GENERAL AND FORMER COMMANDER OF THE AUSTRALIA DEFENCE COLLEGE. - HE HAS LED TOURS IN AFGHANISTAN AND THIS YEAR MET PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY INSIDE UKRAINE. I BEGAN BY ASKING HIM WHETHER HE THINKS VLADIMIR PUTIN IS BOGGED DOWN IN A WAR THAT HE THOUGHT WOULD BE A QUICK TACTICAL WIN. - NO, IT HASN'T, BUT HE'S MANAGED TO DRAW IT OUT FOR THIS LONG, AND I THINK HE WILL DRAW IT OUT WELL INTO 2023. HE'S CONDUCTING A VERY VICIOUS, QUITE REPULSIVE CAMPAIGN OF BOMBING AGAINST THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE, DENYING THEM POWER, WATER AND HEATING; BUT AT THE SAME TIME, HE'S MOBILISED A LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNG RUSSIAN MEN TO THROW THEM AT THIS CONFLICT JUST REALLY TO HOLD THE LINE ` HE'S NOT GONNA MAKE ANY MORE GAINS IN THE COMING COUPLE OF MONTHS, BUT HE JUST WANTS TO HOLD THE LINE UNTIL THE SPRING OF NEXT YEAR. - AND WHAT DOES THAT MASSIVE MOBILISATION TELL US ABOUT THE STATE OF THIS CONFLICT AND THE STATE OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY AT THE MOMENT? - WELL, BOTH SIDES HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN MOBILISING. I MEAN, THE UKRAINIANS MOBILISED VERY EARLY. THEY DENIED PERMISSION FOR YOUNG MEN TO ACTUALLY LEAVE THE COUNTRY, AND THEY'VE MOBILISED PROBABLY 700,000 YOUNG UKRAINIAN MEN AND WOMEN ` AND SOME NOT SO YOUNG ` TO BE PART OF THEIR MILITARY AND CIVIL DEFENCE ORGANISATION. THEY'VE DONE THAT PRETTY EFFECTIVELY SO FAR. THE RUSSIANS HAVE GONE THROUGH A FIRST ROUND OF MOBILISATION OF ABOUT 300,000; THAT HAS HAD VARYING RESULTS. THEY'RE ABOUT TO START, PROBABLY, A SECOND ROUND, AND FOR THEM, THIS IS ABOUT REPLACING THE HUGE NUMBER OF COMBAT AND NON-COMBAT LOSSES OVER THE LAST NINE MONTHS AND THEN HOPEFULLY ` FROM THE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE ` BUILDING THE FORCES THAT WILL ALLOW THEM TO GO ON THE OFFENSIVE IN 2023 TO SECURE THESE PROVINCES THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN ANNEXED IN SEPTEMBER. - I WANT TO TALK TO YOU JUST VERY QUICKLY ABOUT THESE MOBILISATIONS THAT WE'RE SEEING. IS THAT`? IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THAT IS A POLITICAL RISK DOMESTICALLY FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN, BUT IT'S ONE THAT HE'S WILLING TO TAKE? - WELL, HE'S CERTAINLY WILLING TO TAKE NOW, BECAUSE IF HE DOESN'T SUCCEED HERE, HIS VERY REGIME WILL BE THREATENED ` - MM. - OR WORSE. SO, YOU KNOW, HE SEES NO OTHER OPTION. HE PROCRASTINATED ON THIS DECISION FOR A VERY LONG TIME. IF HE HAD MOBILISED IN APRIL, WE MIGHT BE FIGHTING A DIFFERENT WAR NOW. BUT HE WAITED A VERY LONG TIME TO MAKE THIS DECISION BECAUSE OF THE DOMESTIC RISKS, AND HE ONLY MADE IT BECAUSE HE HAD NO OTHER OPTION. - AND, MICK, ON THE UKRAINIAN SIDE, WE HAVE SEEN THIS EXTRAORDINARY RESISTANCE. WHAT DID YOU SEE AND FEEL WHEN YOU VISITED UKRAINE RECENTLY? - OH, YOU CAN SENSE THAT THERE'S A WHOLE, UH, FEELING NOT JUST OF NATIONAL UNITY BUT ABSOLUTE DETERMINATION TO SEE THIS THROUGH TO THE END. I MEAN, THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE HAVE BEEN PERSECUTED BY THE RUSSIANS. THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS AND AWFUL FAMINE EARLIER IN THEIR HISTORY. SO THERE'S A LONG HISTORY OF THE UKRAINIANS STANDING UP TO THE RUSSIANS. THEY'RE GOING TO SEE THIS THROUGH. THE PRESIDENT IN PARTICULAR IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE, COURAGEOUS AND INSPIRATIONAL LEADER, AND HE'S LEADING HIS PEOPLE TO WHAT WE HOPE WILL BE A VICTORY AT SOME POINT IN THE COMING YEAR OR TWO. - WELL, THEY HAVE BEEN MAKING SWEEPING GAINS RECENTLY, BUT WINTER IS APPROACHING; WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT THAT IS GOING TO MEAN FOR THE CONFLICT? - WELL, IT'LL SLOW IT DOWN. IT WON'T STOP IT ` NO WAR STOPS FOR WINTER ` BUT IT WILL CHANGE THE PACE AT WHICH THE RUSSIANS AND THE UKRAINIANS CAN FIGHT, THE PACE AT WHICH THEY CAN SUPPLY THEIR FORCES, THE AMOUNT OF SORTIES THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE FROM THEIR AIR FORCES AND FROM THEIR DRONES. I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO SLOW DOWN THE RUSSIAN STRATEGIC STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, AND WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE THE UKRAINIANS ATTEMPT AT LEAST SOME SMALL-SCALE OFFENSIVES TO KEEP CHIPPING AWAY AT RUSSIAN-HELD TERRITORY WITHIN UKRAINE. - YEAH, WELL, WE'VE BEEN REMINDED RECENTLY OF THE DEVASTATION THAT RUSSIA CAN INFLICT ON UKRAINE WITH THOSE DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS. HOW CLOSE DO YOU THINK THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN IS TO USING A NUCLEAR WEAPON? - I THINK WE'RE VERY LONG WAY FROM THAT. EVEN PUTIN ` AS DISGRACEFUL AS HIS ACTIONS HAVE BEEN ` UNDERSTANDS THAT IT WOULD FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE THE NATURE NOT JUST OF THIS WAR BUT OF NATO'S PARTICIPATION. IT WOULD BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR NATO TO STAND BY IF RUSSIA WAS TO USE A NUCLEAR WEAPON HERE. AND PUTIN CAN'T OVERCOME UKRAINE; NATO IS A FAR LARGER AND MORE FORMIDABLE THREAT TO HIM. SO I THINK IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THAT HE'LL BE USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE SHORT TERM. THAT DOESN'T ENTIRELY TAKE THEM OFF THE TABLE, BUT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS A VERY LOW-PROBABILITY EVENT. - YEAH, ABSOLUTELY, MICK. AND IT WOULDN'T ACTUALLY CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT SIGNIFICANTLY; IT WOULDN'T END THE WAR, WOULD IT? IT WOULD BE A MASSIVE ESCALATION. - IT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. AND TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL IMPACT ON UKRAINE'S MILITARY, HE WOULD HAVE TO USE MORE THAN ONE. HE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO USE SEVERAL. SO I THINK THIS IS VERY LOW PROBABILITY JUST BECAUSE TACTICALLY, IT WOULDN'T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT; BUT STRATEGICALLY, IT WOULD CHANGE THE GAME FOR RUSSIA AND PROBABLY SEVERAL GENERATIONS OF RUSSIANS INTO THE FUTURE. - MM, ABSOLUTELY. SO WHERE ARE WE HEADING, DO YOU THINK, IN THIS CONFLICT? DO YOU THINK THAT A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IS POSSIBLE? BOTH SIDES SEEM VERY ENTRENCHED AT THE MOMENT. - I DON'T SEE NEGOTIATIONS BEING PRODUCTIVE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. I DON'T REALLY SEE WHAT THE UKRAINIANS WOULD BE WILLING TO NEGOTIATE AT THE MOMENT. WHAT WOULD BE ON THE TABLE FOR THEM? THEY'VE SAID WHAT THEY WANT. ZELENSKIY'S SPEECH TO THE G20 OUTLINED 10 ASPECTS OF WAR TERMINATION ` I THINK THEY'RE WORTH READING BY ANYONE WHO'S PROPOSING NEGOTIATIONS. AND FRANKLY, WHY SHOULDN'T HE WANT ALL THE TERRITORY AND ALL HIS CITIZENS BACK IN UKRAINE? - YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. WELL, WE THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE ON THE NATION THIS MORNING FOR YOUR INSIGHT AND YOUR ANALYSIS ` RETIRED MAJOR GENERAL MICK RYAN. - THANK YOU. - ALL RIGHT. STAY WITH US ` WE WILL BE BACK AFTER THE BREAK. - WELCOME BACK ` TO BACKSTORY. WELL, LONG BEFORE SHE WAS NATIONAL'S IMMIGRATION SPOKESPERSON, ERICA STANFORD WAS A BASSOON-PLAYING DEBATE CAPTAIN AND HOCKEY FIRST XI TRIPLE THREAT. NEWSHUB NATION JOINED HER ON THE SHORE AND AT THE BEACH TO HEAR HER BACKSTORY. - WELL, I WAS BORN ON THE NORTH SHORE, AND I'VE LIVED HERE MY WHOLE LIFE. I'VE NEVER LEFT THE EAST COAST BAYS. THE SHORE WAS AN AMAZING PLACE TO GROW UP. I MEAN, YOU COULDN'T ASK FOR MORE. WE'VE GOT BEAUTIFUL BEACHES; IT'S A REALLY SAFE COMMUNITY; THE PEOPLE ARE AMAZING; THE SCHOOLS ARE GREAT. I MEAN, I WOULDN'T WANT TO LIVE ANYWHERE ELSE IN NEW ZEALAND ` HENCE WHY I'M STILL HERE. MY DAD USED TO TAKE US DOWN TO LONG BAY BEACH AND SWIM WITH US ON THE WEEKENDS. HE TAUGHT ME TO DRIVE OVER IN ALBANY BEFORE IT WAS ALL, YOU KNOW, BUILDINGS ` THAT USED TO BE STRAWBERRY FIELDS AND ORCHARDS, AND WE COULD GO HORSE-RIDING, AND THAT'S WHERE I LEARNT TO DRIVE. DAD AND I REALLY CLOSE. I'M REALLY PROUD OF HIM, AND HE IS WHAT DR` WELL, BOTH MUM AND DAD ARE WHO DRIVE ME, BUT DAD ESPECIALLY ` CAME TO THIS COUNTRY WITH NOTHING. HE CAME FROM HOLLAND WHEN HE WAS 5. HE DIDN'T SPEAK THE LANGUAGE. THEY HAD NO MONEY. HIS DAD DIED WHEN HE WAS QUITE YOUNG, AND SO HIS MUM BROUGHT UP FOUR BOYS ALONE, AND HE PUT HIMSELF THROUGH FLIGHT SCHOOL. HE HAS AN INCREDIBLE WORK ETHIC, AND HE HAS VERY HIGH EXPECTATIONS. AND SO I HAVE THAT SAME WORK ETHIC. I WENT TO WORK AT THE WAREHOUSE WHEN I WAS 16 ` NIGHT SHIFT, FOLDING TOWELS. IT'S WHY MY TOWELS AND MY CLOSET ARE IMMACULATELY FOLDED, STILL, TO THIS DAY. I MEAN, MUM STAYED AT HOME WITH US, WHICH WAS GREAT, BUT SHE WORKED AS WELL, AT HOME ` SO, WE HAD A 10,000-SQUARE-FOOT GLASSHOUSE GROWING ITALIA GRAPES THAT THEY EXPORTED, AND SO SHE WORKED IN THAT GLASSHOUSE YEAR IN, YEAR OUT. SHE WORKED REALLY HARD, AND` YOU KNOW, THEY BOTH DID, TO JUST PROVIDE US WITH THE THINGS THAT THEY NEVER HAD GROWING UP. BUT I WAS A TOTAL NERD ` A TOTAL NERD ` AT SCHOOL. I MEAN, I WAS CAPTAIN OF THE DEBATING TEAM. I PLAYED THE BASSOON. THE ONLY REDEEMING THING THAT I DID WAS I WAS ON THE FIRST XI HOCKEY TEAM FOR A LITTLE WHILE. SO THAT WAS THE ONE REDEEMING FEATURE. - SO, WE MET AT SCHOOL ` RANGITOTO COLLEGE. UH, SHE WAS THE DEBATING STUDENT REP BASSOON PLAYER, SO A TRIPLE THREAT. UH, AND... I LIKED THE CUT OF HER JIB. - YOU LIKED THE CUT OF MY JIB? WHATEVER. - (LAUGHS) - I PURSUED HIM. I CALLED HIM EVERY SINGLE NIGHT FOR FIVE NIGHTS... - MM. - ...BEFORE HE FINALLY GOT THE COURAGE TO ASK ME OUT. - I DON'T QUITE KNOW HOW IT WORKED. - (LAUGHS) - YEAH. - HE WAS KIND AND FUNNY AND SMART ` AND ALL THOSE KIND OF QUALITIES YOU LOOK FOR IN, YOU KNOW, SOMEONE YOU WANT TO SPEND THE REST OF YOUR LIFE WITH. I FELL IN LOVE WITH HIM REALLY QUICKLY. BEING A POLITICIAN IS REALLY TOUGH WITH` ON FAMILIES. I DON'T SEE THEM FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, AND THEN` I MEAN, ON FRIDAY, I'LL BE SOMEWHERE, AND ON MONDAY, I'LL BE SOMEWHERE, AND THERE'LL BE SOME, YOU KNOW, THING ON A WEEKEND LOCALLY THAT I HAVE TO DO, AND SO THE TIME I GET TO SPEND WITH THEM IS, YOU KNOW, GETTING LESS AND LESS, AND HAS AN EFFECT ON THEM. - IT'S FINE. I DON'T REALLY MIND, BECAUSE` WELL, I DO, BUT... BECAUSE IT'S MAKING MONEY, I'M FINE WITH IT. (PARENTS LAUGH) IT MAKES MONEY, AND I'M FINE WITH IT. - (LAUGHS) - OH, I LOVE YOU. I LOVE YOU, DARLING. I'M NOT REALLY A BIG PLANNER; I DON'T HAVE PLANS ` FIVE-YEAR, TEN-YEAR PLANS ` BUT I` WHATEVER IT IS THAT I DO, JUST DO IT THE BEST OF MY ABILITIES AND THEN THINGS JUST HAPPEN. YOU ABSOLUTELY DO CREATE YOUR OWN OPPORTUNITIES, AND THAT'S WHAT I TRY AND TEACH MY KIDS. AND I HAD A SIT DOWN WITH MY DAUGHTER THE OTHER DAY, COS WE HAD A CHAT ABOUT 'QUIET QUITTING', AND IT WAS REALLY INTERESTING TALKING TO HER. SHE SAID TO ME, 'MUM, WHY WOULD PEOPLE DO THAT? 'WHY WOULDN'T YOU JUST WORK REALLY HARD TO THE BEST OF YOUR ABILITY 'AND THEN, YOU KNOW, THINGS WILL COME YOUR WAY?' AND I'M LIKE, (SOFTLY) 'YES. '15 YEARS OF ME IN HER EAR HAS WORKED!' (LAUGHS) 'SHE'S FINALLY PARROTING IT BACK.' I DON'T REMEMBER, ACTUALLY, HOW THAT THAT FIRST MOMENT FELT WHEN THE ELECTION RESULTS CAME IN. AND WHAT I REMEMBER IS THE FIRST DAY GOING TO PARLIAMENT AND SEEING THE BUILDING AND` THE BEEHIVE AND PARLIAMENT BUILDINGS IN FRONT OF ME AND JUST GETTING THAT... 'OH MY GOD.' I MEAN, I HAD MET A LOT OF THE OTHER MPs AND FORMER MINISTERS ` MET THEM FLEETINGLY ` BUT IT WAS ALSO THIS SORT OF SENSE OF, 'OH MY GOD, IT'S JUDITH COLLINS.' (GASPS) 'NIKKI KAYE. OH MY GOSH!' - ERICA STANFORD, ALL RIGHT? - MR SPEAKER. - ERICA STANFORD. - I THINK POLITICS IS A LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT PEOPLE ACTUALLY THINK. I THINK YOU SEE THE THEATRICS ` YOU KNOW, IT'S QUESTION TIME AND IT'S` AND SOME OF THE QUITE INTENSE DEBATES WE HAVE. MOST OF THE TIME, IT'S NOT LIKE THAT. AND I'VE GOT SOME GOOD FRIENDS. I'VE GOT` I MEAN, KIRI ALLAN AND I ARE REALLY CLOSE, AND I'M REALLY CLOSE TO CHLOE SWARBRICK AS WELL. SO, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE FRIENDS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HOUSE. I DON'T AGREE WITH ANYTHING THAT THEY SAY, (LAUGHS) HARDLY, BUT THEY'RE GREAT PEOPLE, AND I REALLY ENJOY THE COMPANY. WELL, QUITE OFTEN WE'LL BE SITTING IN THE HOUSE HAVING A DEBATE AND THERE'S` KIRI ALLAN'S TEXTING ME. (LAUGHS) IT'S LIKE, 'COME ON, STANFORD!' IT'S QUITE` IT'S QUITE FUNNY. THIS IS LONG BAY AND THE MARINE CENTRE DOWN HERE, AND THIS IS A PLACE THAT'S REALLY SPECIAL TO ME. MY DAD USED TO BRING ME DOWN HERE SWIMMING EVERY WEEKEND. - (GROANS) - YOU ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO BE INTENTIONAL WITH YOUR TIME WHEN IT COMES TO KIDS IN THIS JOB. YOU HAVE TO SET ASIDE TIME, AND YOU'VE GOT TO BE BRUTAL ABOUT IT AND SAY TO YOUR STAFF, 'DO NOT BOOK ANYTHING. 'THIS IS`' YOU KNOW, 'I'M GONNA TAKE HOLLY TO THE MALL, 'AND THEN WE'RE GONNA,' YOU KNOW, 'GO TO THE PARK, OR WE'RE GOING TO DO SOMETHING TOGETHER,' AND THAT TIME'S GOT TO BE PROTECTED. - ERICA STANFORD THERE. YEAH, THAT'S` - HOW'S YOUR TOWEL-FOLDING? - MY TOWEL-FOLDING HAS A LOT TO BE DESIRED. - (CHUCKLES) I THINK MINE DOES TOO, ACTUALLY. - AND THEN THERE'S THE CONTROVERSIAL PART OF ROLLING TOWELS. ANYWAY... - (LAUGHS) - ...THAT'S ALL FROM US FOR NOW. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING. - NGA MIHI NUI; SEE YOU AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND FOR OUR FAMOUS LIVE CHRISTMAS PARTY SHOW. CAPTIONS BY MAEVE KELLY AND JESSIE PURU. 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