TENA TATOU KATOA, I'M REBECCA WRIGHT. AND I'M SIMON SHEPHERD. ATAMARIE E HOA MA, NAU MAI KI NEWSHUB NATION. FIRST UP ` COMPETENT, OR JUST CONFIDENT? IT'S A QUESTION SWIRLING AROUND THE NATS' TAX PLAN. WE SIT DOWN WITH CHRISTOPHER LUXON. TWO DOCTORS AND A CONTEST OF IDEAS ` LABOUR'S AYESHA VERRALL AND NATIONAL'S SHANE RETI HEAD-TO-HEAD. AND THE NUMBERS ARE IN ` WE'VE POLLED ONE OF THIS ELECTION'S MOST FASCINATING BATTLEGROUND ELECTORATES. FOR 15 DAYS, QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN SWIRLING AROUND NATIONAL'S CENTREPIECE TAX POLICY ` AND IN PARTICULAR, ITS PLAN TO RAISE REVENUE TO PAY FOR TAX CUTS BY INTRODUCING A FOREIGN BUYERS' TAX. THE PARTY AND ITS LEADERSHIP COMING UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE TO SHOW VOTERS THEIR NUMBERS, BUT THEY'RE DIGGING IN. HERE IS CHRISTOPHER LUXON. OK. WE'RE GOING TO TALK A LOT NOW ABOUT TAX. OH, GREAT. YOU TALKED A LOT ABOUT TAX THIS WEEK. IT'S BEEN AN UP AND DOWN WEEK FOR YOU. YOUR POLL NUMBERS HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD. BUT YOU'VE ALSO STRUGGLED TO STACK UP YOUR TAX PLAN. THERE'S BEEN BIG QUESTIONS FROM A LOT OF PLACES ABOUT YOUR FOREIGN BUYER TAX. ARE THERE ANY CONDITIONS THAT WOULD MAKE YOU RE-THINK YOUR TAX CUT POLICY? NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT. BY VIRTUE OF THE WAY WE SAID WE WOULD DESIGN IT, A LONG TIME AGO. WE ALWAYS SAID THAT WE WOULD MAKE SURE THAT IT WAS FULLY A SELF-FUNDED TAX PLAN. I'LL PUT IT INTO A LITTLE BIT OF PERSPEC` WELL, WE CAN PUT IT INTO CONTEXT IN A SECOND, BUT, IT FEELS LIKE YOU'RE ENTRENCHED HERE, IN THIS POSITION. YOU ARE OUT THERE, DYING, EVERY DAY, IN A DITCH, OVER THIS TAX PLAN, WHEN THERE ARE QUESTIONS OVER THE LEGITIMACY OF THE FOREIGN BUYER TAX, WHY WON'T YOU JUST RELEASE THE NUMBERS AND SHOW KIWIS THE MONEY? WELL, WE'VE RELEASED 32 PAGES OF OUR APPROACH AND COSTINGS. WE'VE RELEASE A LEGAL REPORT, SUMMARISING THE LEGAL VIEW. AND WE'VE ALSO RELEASED CASTALIA'S INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC REVIEW OF OUR NUMBERS. SO, WHAT I'D JUST SAY TO YOU IS, YEAH, THE FOREIGN BUYER TAX IS A PIECE OF, ACTUALLY, HOW WE FUND OUR TAX RELIEF. WE'VE DONE THIS ON A VERY CONSERVATIVE, VERY PRUDENT BASIS ON ALL ASPECTS OF IT. AND IMPORTANTLY, WE'RE DELIVERING TAX RELIEF TO WORKING NEW ZEALANDERS. THAT'S WHAT THEY CARE ABOUT. THIS IS THE 32-PAGE DOCUMENT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, ISN'T IT? CHRISTOPHER, THIS IS A BROCHURE. IT'S FULL OF PICTURES OF YOU` I THINK THAT'S UNFAIR. IT'S GOT QUITE A LOT OF TABLES IN THE BACK THERE. WELL, THERE'S ALSO SOME PICTURES OF YOU HAVING A CUP OF TEA. THESE ARE PICTURES OF YOU CUDDLING A BABY. THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL DOCUMENT, A BIG FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. THIS IS A BROCHURE. NO, THAT'S A POLICY DOCUMENT THAT LAYS OUT IN DETAIL AND APPENDICES ACTUALLY SOME OF OUR COSTINGS AND HOW WE'RE APPROACHING IT. WE'VE BEEN VERY TRANSPARENT ABOUT IT, AND WE ACTUALLY` I THINK I'M VERY PROUD OF THAT BECAUSE` IT'S MARKETING, IT'S NOT MODELLING, THIS IS MARKETING, CHRISTOPHER. NO, IT'S NOT. IT'S CALLED A POLICY DOCUMENT. THAT'S WHAT WE DO IN POLITICS. WE PREPARE POLICY SO THAT ACTUALLY NEW ZEALANDERS CAN JUMP ONLINE TO SEE IT AND SEE HOW WELL THEY'RE GOING TO DO. BUT YOU'RE SAYING THAT THIS IS` YOU'VE PUT A 32 PAGE REPORT WHICH GOES THROUGH ALL OF THE FINANCIAL DETAILS. YOU COULD NOT PRESENT THIS IN ANY OTHER ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT FOR POLITICS AND HAVE PEOPLE TAKE YOU SERIOUSLY. YOU COULDN'T LIST ON THE NZX WITH THIS. THEY WOULDN'T ALLOW YOU. I JUST PUT IT TO YOU. I THINK IT'S A VERY COMPREHENSIVE POLICY DOCUMENT` BUT IT'S NOT A FINANCIAL DOCUMENT. NO, BUT I WOULD CHALLENGE YOU TO ACTUALLY SAY THE SAME THING IF YOU WANT TO INVESTIGATE HOW THE GOVERNMENT'S PROPOSING TO TAKE GST OFF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES. BUT THESE ARE YOUR NUMBERS... OR IT'S PROPOSING TO INCREASE FUEL TAX AND EXCISE TAX. LET'S TAKE A LOOK HERE AT YOUR OWN EXAMPLE WITH THE FOREIGN BUYER TAX. THIS IS RACHEL. SHE IS A TECH ENTREPRENEUR. SHE IS FROM SAN FRANCISCO. SHE'S SUCCESSFULLY APPLIED FOR AN ENTREPRENEUR WORK VISA SO SHE CAN START A BUSINESS IN NEW ZEALAND. SHE WANTS TO BUY A $3M APARTMENT IN AUCKLAND TO LIVE IN, BUT SHE'S NOT A RESIDENT, SO SHE CAN'T BUY A HOME. UNDER YOUR PLAN, YOU SAY THAT SHE WILL PAY 15% OF FOREIGN BUYER TAX AND SHE'LL BE ABLE TO BUY AN APARTMENT. HOW MANY RACHELS DO YOU NEED TO MAKE YOUR FOREIGN BUYER TAX WORK? WELL, LET'S GO THROUGH IT. WELL, HOW MANY RACHELS? LET ME STEP YOU THROUGH IT. SO, BEFORE THE FOREIGN BUYER BAN WAS IN PLACE, THERE WAS 4000 HOUSES THAT WERE SOLD TO FOREIGNERS IN NEW ZEALAND. WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS WE THINK IT WILL BE LESS THAN HALF, ABOUT 1600-1700 HOUSES IS WHAT OUR PLAN IS ABOUT. WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS, LOOK, WE ACTUALLY WANT SOMEONE LIKE HER TO ACTUALLY COME TO NEW ZEALAND AND ACTUALLY INVEST IN NEW ZEALAND, PARTNER WITH NEW ZEALAND FIRMS, HELP THEM GET BETTER, HELP THEM TO EXPAND AND GROW. SO HOW MANY HOW MANY RACHELS DO YOU NEED? WELL, AS WE SAID, WE PLANNED ON SELLING 1600 TO 1700 HOUSES IN OUR ASSUMPTIONS. SO YOU NEED 1600 TO 1700 RACHELS? YEAH. SO HOW MANY RACHELS ENTERED THE COUNTRY UNDER THAT VISA THIS YEAR? I CAN TELL YOU ` IT'S 12. WELL, WHAT I'D SAY TO YOU IS, THERE'S OTHER VISAS AND OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEOPLE, FOREIGNERS TO COME TO NEW ZEALAND. BUT THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE PUTTING IN YOUR DOCUMENT THAT YOU'RE SELLING TO NEW ZEALANDERS. YES, BUT WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS` I'M HEARING TWO MESSAGES FROM EVERYBODY OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. ON THE ONE HAND, WE ACTUALLY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE COMING TO BUY THESE HOUSES, THEREFORE OUR PLAN ISN'T FULLY FUNDED. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE'RE INCREDIBLY WORRIED THAT ACTUALLY ALL THESE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SHOW UP AND ACTUALLY DRIVE PROPERTY PRICES UP. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE. WELL, I THINK WE'VE BEEN VERY SENSIBLE ABOUT IT. BUT ALL WE'RE SAYING IS, LOOK, IF YOU WANT TO COME TO NEW ZEALAND AS A FOREIGNER, A WEALTHY FOREIGNER, WE'RE GOING TO MAKE SURE YOU BUY A LUXURY HOME AND YOU'RE GOING TO PAY 15% TAX. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, THAT'S GOING TO GO TO LOWER MIDDLE INCOME NEW ZEALANDERS. SO LET'S TALK ABOUT YOUR NUMBERS JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE HERE. YOU'VE BASED THEM ON NUMBERS BACK IN 2018, OF 4000 HOMES, BUT YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY OF THOSE WERE OVER $2 MILLION` HOW MANY OF THOSE SALES WERE OVER $2 MILLION, DO YOU? WELL, CLEARLY THE MARKET HAS MOVED SINCE 2018. YOU DON'T KNOW. UNFORTUNATELY, IN THIS GOVERNMENT, THEY'VE FAILED SO BADLY ON HOUSING, HOUSE PRICES` YOU DON'T KNOW THAT. YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY WERE OVER $2M. NO. BUT WHAT I CAN SAY TO YOU IS, THERE'S 4000 HOUSES SOLD TO FOREIGNERS. YES. WE'VE BEEN VERY CONSERVATIVE, TAKING LESS THAN HALF OF THEM INTO OUR ASSUMPTION, INTO OUR MODEL. WE'RE ALSO ACKNOWLEDGING THERE'S A HUGE AMOUNT OF PENT UP DEMAND BY VIRTUE OF THE BRIGHTLINE TEST HAVING BEEN THERE AND ALSO THE BANDING` AT THAT PRICE, CHRISTOPHER, YOU NEED 40% OF THOSE 4000 BUYERS, EXCLUDING AUSTRALIANS AND SINGAPOREANS TO BUY HOUSES OVER $2 MILLION. AND THERE'S 100,000 HOMES, HERE IN NEW ZEALAND` NO, THERE WAS 4000 SOLD. NO, NO, BUT THAT'S TO ALL FOREIGNERS BEFORE THE BAN. YES. AND JUST REMEMBER, TODAY` WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY` HOUSE PRICES HAVE MOVED ON. SEPARATELY, WE ALSO NOW HAVE 100,000 HOMES WORTH OVER $2 MILLION IN NEW ZEALAND, AND WE'VE HAD A BAN IN PLACE. WE'VE ACTUALLY HAD A BRIGHT LINE TEST IN PLACE. THOSE THINGS HAVE BEEN IMPEDIMENTS TO DEMAND. AND SO I'M VERY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO RAISE $740M FROM THE FOREIGN BUYERS. CHRISTOPHER... AND WE'RE GOING TO GIVE IT TO LOWER AND MIDDLE INCOME NEW ZEALANDERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT COMPETENCE, CHRISTOPHER. AND THAT IS WHAT LOOKS TO BE LACKING HERE. I DISAGREE. I DISAGREE. SO YOU THINK CONFIDENCE IS COMPETENCE? NO, I'M CONFIDENT AND COMPETENT. I UNDERSTAND THE ECONOMY. I UNDERSTAND NUMBERS, AND I UNDERSTAND HOW IT WORKS. WELL, ACTUALLY` THE REALITY IS THERE WILL BE A RANGE OF ECONOMISTS THAT HAVE A DIFFERENT RANGE OF OPINIONS. WELL, THEY ACTUALLY THINK` WE'VE HAD A RANGE OF ECONOMISTS IN NEW ZEALAND, JUST FOR EXAMPLE, THAT DIDN'T ACTUALLY FORECAST THAT WE'D BE IN RECESSION. CHRISTOPHER, THERE ARE NOT A RANGE OF OPINIONS ON THIS. THERE ARE TAX EXPERTS, ECONOMISTS, PROPERTY EXPERTS, WHO ALL SAY THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE BOGUS. AND THERE'S YOU AND CASTALIA WHO SAY THEY'RE NOT. AND SO WITHIN THE` THAT IS NOT A RANGE OF OPINIONS. THAT IS EVERYONE ELSE AND YOU. WELL, WHAT I'D SAY TO YOU IS WE HAVE HAD THE DECENCY OF GOING OFF AND ACTUALLY CHECKING OUR NUMBERS WITH AN INDEPENDENT GROUP OF ECONOMISTS, AND THEY HAVE COME BACK AND VALIDATED THOSE NUMBERS. NO, ANOTHER GROUP HAVE SAID` GST OFF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES ` THERE'S NOT A SINGLE ECONOMIST THAT WOULD SUPPORT THAT. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT YOUR POLICY HERE. AND THE ECONOMISTS SAY THAT YOU'RE DREAMING. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT NATIONAL'S FOREIGN BUYER TAX WOULD RAISE $210M PER YEAR, COMPARED TO YOUR ESTIMATE OF $740M. THIS IS THE MODELLING THAT'S BEEN DONE BY INDEPENDENTLY BY ECONOMISTS IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST, BECAUSE YOU WON'T RELEASE YOUR NUMBERS. WELL, I THINK WE'VE BEEN INCREDIBLY CLEAR. WHAT WE'VE DONE` BUT YOU HAVEN'T BEEN TRANSPARENT. `THE 32 PAGE DOCUMENT THAT'S GOT THE APPROACH AND COSTINGS IN IT. THIS` THIS IS NOT` GO THROUGH THE DETAIL IN THE APPENDICES` I HAVE BEEN THROUGH THE DETAIL OF THE APPENDICES. THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL DOCUMENT. IT'S MARKETING. YEAH. WE'VE ALSO RELEASED INDEPENDENT ECONOMISTS VIEW OF OUR NUMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN AUDITED. THEY FIND THEM PLAUSIBLE. WE'VE BEEN CONSERVATIVE. WE'VE ACTUALLY WORKED THAT THROUGH REALLY CLOSELY AND CAREFULLY. AND WE'VE ALSO RELEASED LEGAL ADVICE, BECAUSE INITIALLY, THE FIRST ISSUES WERE, OH, THIS WON'T WORK WITH FOREIGN TREATY FTAS, THIS WON'T WORK WITH TAX TREATIES. IT'S NOT POSSIBLE TO REINSTATE IT. THEY HAVE RELEASED THEIR MODEL. WHY WON'T YOU JUST SHOW NEW ZEALANDERS THE MONEY? I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY VALUE IN RELEASING SPREADSHEETS. WHY NOT BE CLEAR WITH PEOPLE AND RELEASE YOUR SPREADSHEETS? BECAUSE I'M VERY CONFIDENT WE'VE HAD INDEPENDENT VALIDATION AND EQUALLY WE'VE RELEASED THAT INFORMATION. BUT THIS IS IMPORTANT. THIS IS ABOUT INTEGRITY. THIS IS ABOUT COMPETENCE, THIS IS ABOUT HUMILITY. THIS IS ABOUT ASKING NEW ZEALANDERS TO GIVE YOU BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO SPEND ON YOUR TAX CUT PACKAGE AND TO TRUST YOUR NUMBERS. WHY DON'T YOU JUST FRONT UP AND SHOW THEM THE MONEY? AND NEW ZEALANDERS KNOW THAT THEY CAN TRUST A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT TO MANAGE THE ECONOMY WELL. WHY DO THEY KNOW THAT? `GOOD ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, AND THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO GET FROM US. BUT WHY DO THEY KNOW THAT? BECAUSE YOU'VE GIVEN THEM 32 PAGES OF MARKETING AND FLIMSY EXAMPLES. NO, WE'RE GIVING THEM` WE HAVE HAD A FULLY COSTED TAX PLAN. REMEMBER, THERE IS SAVINGS THAT WE'RE GENERATING OUT OF THE PUBLIC SERVICE. THERE IS NEW REVENUE THAT WE'RE RAISING AND THE SUM OF ALL OF THAT IS GOING TO LOWER MIDDLE INCOME NEW ZEALAND. YOU'RE JUST NOT GOING TO SHOW NEW ZEALANDERS YOUR NUMBERS, YOU'RE GOING TO BLUSTER AND YOU'RE GOING TO BULLY YOUR WAY THROUGH THIS. THAT IS YOUR STRATEGY. I JUST WANT TO GIVE YOU SOME PROPORTIONALITY. THIS IS A GOVERNMENT THAT SPENDS $137 BILLION` WE ARE TALKING ABOUT YOU HERE, CHRISTOPHER, AND YOUR POLICIES, BECAUSE YOU WANT TO BE PRIME MINISTER. WE HAVE GIVEN YOU VERY GOOD CLARITY AROUND THE APPROACH, AROUND THE COSTINGS, WE'VE GIVEN YOU INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC REVIEW OF OUR NUMBERS` BUT NOT THE NUMBERS. AND INDEPENDENT LEGAL TAX ADVICE, LEGAL ADVICE AS WELL. OK. LET'S SET ASIDE THE THE MANY QUESTIONS OVER YOUR FOREIGN BUYER TAX, AND SAY YOU'RE RIGHT, FOR A MOMENT. WHAT IMPACT WILL REDUCING THE BRIGHT LINE TEST, INTEREST DEDUCTIBILITY AND POURING 6800 FOREIGN BUYERS INTO THE HOUSING MARKET HAVE ON RESIDENTIAL PRICES? WELL, WHAT I'D SAY TO YOU, THE REAL ISSUE THAT DRIVES RESIDENTIAL PRICES IS A LACK OF SUPPLY. I'M ASKING YOU WHAT EFFECT YOUR POLICIES WILL HAVE. I DON'T THINK THAT'LL HAVE ANY PARTICULAR EFFECT ON` DO YOU KNOW? LET ME EXPLAIN. BECAUSE YOUR FINANCE MINISTER DOESN'T KNOW. BUT LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY, BECAUSE ESSENTIALLY, YOU'VE GOT TO UNDERSTAND THE HOUSING MARKET IN NEW ZEALAND, RIGHT? PEOPLE DO UNDERSTAND THE HOUSING MARKET, BUT I'M ASKING WHAT IMPACT YOUR POLICIES WILL HAVE ON IT. SO LET ME EXPLAIN THAT TO YOU. WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS, WE HAVE MAJOR PROBLEMS IN THE HOME OWNERSHIP PART OF OUR MARKET, RIGHT? WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH SUPPLY OF HOUSES. WE'VE GOT GOOD POLICIES ABOUT HOUSING FOR GROWTH, ABOUT HOW WE UNLOCK THAT. WE HAVE A MAJOR LACK OF SUPPLY IN OUR RENTAL PROPERTY MARKET AS WELL, AND WE HAVE A MAJOR LACK OF SUPPLY IN SOCIAL HOUSING AND STATE HOUSING. SO LACK OF SUPPLY IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST DETERMINANT THAT WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH HOUSE PRICES GOING FORWARD IN NEW ZEALAND. YOU DID SAY SOMETHING YESTERDAY THAT WAS INTERESTING. YOU SAID 'WHEN GUCCI TAKES THEIR PRICES UP, I DON'T SEE A LOT OF 'PRICES GOING UP AT THE WAREHOUSE.' CAN YOU EXPLAIN THAT? WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS THAT WE HAVE DESIGNED A FOREIGN BUYER TAX POLICY THAT ACTUALLY PUTS A THRESHOLD IN PLACE, WHICH IS A $2M-PLUS PURCHASE` IS THAT A GUCCI HOUSE? WELL, IT'S A MORE EXPENSIVE HOUSE, RIGHT? IS IT? THERE ARE THREE-BEDROOM HOMES WORTH $2M. THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE ACROSS NEW ZEALAND IS $894,000 AT THE MOMENT. WHAT'S THE AVERAGE HERE IN AUCKLAND? IT'LL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT. BUT THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE ACROSS NEW ZEALAND IS $894,000. WE'VE DESIGNED IT SUCH THAT THERE IS A THRESHOLD IN PLACE SO THAT ACTUALLY FOREIGN BUYERS ARE NOT COMPETING WITH NEW ZEALANDERS. SO YOU'RE SAYING THAT $2M IS GUCCI? WHAT I'M SAYING TO YOU IS I'M TRYING TO` I WAS TRYING TO ILLUSTRATE VERY CLEARLY THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN $895,000 HOUSE, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN NEW ZEALAND, VERSUS PUTTING A THRESHOLD IN PLACE OF $2M OR MORE. AND YOU'VE JUST SEEN IT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. FOR EXAMPLE, WE'VE THERE'S BEEN A NEW RECORD HOUSE PRICE SET IN QUEENSTOWN OF $40 MILLION. HOW MANY OF THOSE DO YOU HAVE TO SELL? WELL, I MEAN, THE REALITY IS THERE'S A LOT OF` THERE'S` YOU'LL FIND A LOT OF THESE BUYERS WILL WANT TO BUY 10, 15, $20M HOMES HERE IN NZ. HOW MANY OF THOSE DO YOU HAVE TO SELL? WELL, THERE WILL BE MORE OF THEM BECAUSE WE'VE ACTUALLY GOT THE BRIGHTLINE TEST COMING BACK. WE'VE ALSO GOT A FOREIGN BUYER BAN BEING RELEASED AND NOT IN PLACE. AND THAT WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE SOME MORE DEMAND. $2M HOMES ARE ASPIRATIONAL HOMES FOR MANY KIWIS. IN AUCKLAND, IT CAN BE A THREE BEDROOM HOUSE IN MOUNT ALBERT. SO YOU ARE POURING NEW BUYERS INTO A SLICE OF THE MARKET THAT COULD BE` I'M NOW POURING BUYERS INTO THE MARKET, WHEN BEFORE I WASN'T RAISING ENOUGH FROM THEM. I SAID, LET'S TAKE` LET'S SAY THAT YOU'RE RIGHT, AND THE KIWIS CAN DECIDE WHETHER THEY THINK YOU'RE RIGHT OR NOT. BUT A $2M HOUSE HERE IN AUCKLAND, THAT'S A THREE BEDROOM HOUSE IN MOUNT ALBERT. AND FAMILIES, THESE ARE ASPIRATIONAL HOMES FOR KIWIS AND YOU WANT TO POUR FOREIGN BUYERS INTO THAT PART OF THE MARKET. AND WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO TELL ME IS THAT IT'S NOT GOING TO PUSH UP PRICES OR PRICE OUT KIWIS. WE HAVE 100,000 HOMES IN NEW ZEALAND WORTH MORE THAN $2 MILLION. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT. THIS EXAMPLE, IN MOUNT ALBERT` 1600 HOMES IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TO MAKE OUR PLAN WORK. BUT YOU'RE POURING IT INTO A PART OF THE MARKET THAT IS ASPIRATIONAL AND IMPORTANT TO KIWI FAMILIES. AND WHAT'S IMPORTANT TO KIWI FAMILIES, THEY ALSO GET TAX RELIEF BECAUSE THEY'RE DOING AN INCREDIBLY TOUGH WITH RISING MORTGAGE RATES, HIGH LEVELS` BUT YOU COULD BE ROBBING FROM PETER TO PAY PAUL HERE BECAUSE` YOU'RE GOING TO GIVE THEM $25 BUCKS A WEEK IN TAX RELIEF AND PRICE THEM OUT OF THE HOUSING MARKET. NO, I'M ACTUALLY TAKING IT FROM PEDRO TO PAY PAUL BECAUSE I'M TAKING IT FROM FOREIGN BUYERS. AND I'M SAYING IF YOU WANT TO PURCHASE A HOUSE HERE IN NEW ZEALAND, YOU WILL PAY A 15% TAX. THIS MONEY IS GOING STRAIGHT TO HARDWORKING KIWIS WHO DESERVE A TAX BREAK. I'M SAYING THAT YOU MIGHT BE GIVING KIWI FAMILIES $25 A WEEK, BUT YOU'RE TAKING AWAY THEIR ABILITY TO MOVE INTO THOSE HOMES AT THE $2 MILLION MARK, WHICH, HERE IN AUCKLAND, IS A FAMILY HOME. YEAH, AND I THINK WHEN YOU'VE GOT A 100,000 HOUSES ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THIS COUNTRY WORTH MORE THAN $2 MILLION AND WE'RE TALKING ABOUT SELLING 1600 OF THEM POTENTIALLY, THAT'S DIGESTABLE. EVERY YEAR, FOR FOUR YEARS, SO THAT IS MANY MORE THAN 1600. AND THE TREASURY SAYS THAT IT DOES EXACTLY THAT, THAT IT PUSHES UP RESIDENTIAL PRICES, ALLOWING FOREIGNERS INTO THE LUXURY PART OF THE MARKET, DRAGS PRICES UP, AND IT PRICES KIWIS OUT. STRONG ACTIVITY AT THE TOP END OF THE MARKET DISPLACES NEW ZEALANDERS FROM BEING ABLE TO PURCHASE THESE HOMES. I DON'T THINK THE TREASURY ADVICE FACTORED IN THAT WE WOULD PUT IN A THRESHOLD AROUND A FOREIGN BUYER BAN. PREVIOUSLY, THERE WAS NO THRESHOLD, REMEMBER? NO, IT DID ACTUALLY, BECAUSE IT WAS SAYING WHY NOT JUST OPEN UP THAT LUXURY PART OF THE MARKET? SO IT DID FACTOR THAT IN. YEAH. AND SO FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW, AS I SAID TO YOU, I DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN IT ANY MORE TO YOU, WHICH IS` I DON'T FEEL LIKE I'M ANY FURTHER AHEAD. NO, NO, NO. WELL I'M JUST TRYING TO EXPLAIN TO YOU, THERE'S 100,000 HOMES ABOVE $2 MILLION. OUR PLANS ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE. WE EXPECT TO SELL 16 TO 1700 A YEAR TO FOREIGNERS. FOR THE GREAT PRIVILEGE OF DOING THAT, WHETHER THEY BUY A TEN, 15, $20 MILLION HOUSE, WHATEVER IT MAY BE` $2 MILLION HOUSE. THEY WILL END UP` ACTUALLY, THE AVERAGE PRICE WAS 2.9 MILLION, WAS WHAT WE BUILT THE NUMBERS ON. THEY WILL ACTUALLY PAY A 15% TAX AND THAT'S GOING TO LOWER MIDDLE INCOME WORKERS. I THINK THAT'S A FANTASTIC PLAN. AND I APPRECIATE, YOU KNOW, IF YOU'RE IN THE LABOUR PARTY, YOU'RE REALLY DISAPPOINTED BECAUSE` WE'RE NOT IN THE LABOUR PARTY. YOU'RE TALKING TO VOTERS RIGHT NOW. VOTERS LOVE IT. AND DO THEY? BECAUSE THEY APPRECIATE IT. BECAUSE WE'RE GOING TO GIVE THEM TAX RELIEF BECAUSE WE'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO FIND A WAY TO BE ABLE TO FUND IT COMPLETELY IN A STANDALONE TAX PLAN? I THINK THAT'S GREAT. REMAINS TO BE SEEN ACTUALLY, WHETHER YOU WILL BE ABLE TO FUND IT COMPLETELY. AND IF YOU CAN'T FUND IT COMPLETELY, WHERE DOES THAT MONEY COME FROM? YOU'RE GOING TO BORROW OR YOU'RE GOING TO CUT? WELL, WE'RE NOT GOING TO DO WHAT THIS GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN DOING. ARE YOU GOING TO BORROW OR CUT? LABOUR IS TAKING IT OUT OF FUTURE OPERATING SPENDING. WE'RE GOING TO MAKE IT SELF-FUNDING. IF IT'S NOT, IF IT'S FALLS SHORT BY THE 2 BILLION THAT THE ECONOMISTS THINK IT WILL, IF YOUR NUMBERS ARE A BIT FUNKY, WHERE DOES THE MONEY COME FROM? WELL, WHAT I'VE SAID TO YOU IS EVERY ASPECT OF OUR TAX PLAN HAS BEEN CHECKED AND THERE ARE REVENUE RAISERS IN OTHER AREAS. THERE ARE ALSO PRIORITIES SAVINGS AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND EVERY SINGLE ASPECT OF THAT HAS BEEN DONE CONSERVATIVELY, PRUDENTLY. BUT THESE ARE JUST WORDS. THOSE ARE JUST WORDS. WITHOUT ACTUAL EVIDENCE, FACTS TO BACK IT UP, THESE ARE JUST WORDS. THIS IS MARKETING. THIS IS HUBRIS. UNTIL YOU GET ELECTED... I DISAGREE. WE'VE ACTUALLY` I'VE EXPLAINED TO YOU THAT WE'VE ACTUALLY GONE OFF AND ENGAGE SOMEBODY TO ACTUALLY INTERROGATE OUR NUMBERS, CHALLENGE OUR NUMBERS. SO WHY AREN'T YOU WORRIED THEN THAT EVERYBODY ELSE SAYS THIS IS NOT GOING TO WORK? THEY LOOKED AT TORONTO, IN TORONTO, WHICH HAS THE SAME 15% TAX AND A GREATER POPULATION THAN NEW ZEALAND, THEY CAME UP WITH $250 MILLION IN THIS FOREIGN BUYER REVENUE. YES. WELL, WE SEE THESE SCHEMES WORKING ALL AROUND THE WORLD. BUT THAT'S NOT 750 MILLION. IT'S HAPPENING ACROSS AUSTRALIA. DID YOU LOOK AT TORONTO? WE'VE LOOKED AT A NUMBER OF MARKETS ACROSS THE WORLD AND THAT'S` AND WE SEE THESE THINGS WORKING INCREDIBLY WELL. IT'S ONE PART OF OUR PLAN. I APPRECIATE THERE'S DIFFERENT VIEWS. I DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN TO YOU ANY CLEARER ABOUT OUR ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW WE'VE ACTUALLY` YOU COULD RELEASE THE NUMBERS, THAT WOULD MAKE IT CLEAR. HAVE TOLD YOU HOW WE'RE DOING IT. I'M NOT GOING TO RELEASE THIS EXCEL SPREADSHEET. WHY NOT? WELL, THERE'S NO POINT, BECAUSE WHAT I'M SAYING TO YOU IS I'VE GIVEN YOU AN APPROACH, I'VE GIVEN YOU COSTINGS, I'VE GIVEN YOU AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW FROM A BUNCH OF ECONOMISTS. I'VE GIVEN YOU INDEPENDENT TAX ADVICE. MM-HM. INITIALLY, THIS PROGRAM CAME UNDER ATTACK, AS IT'S INCONSISTENT WITH OUR FTA AGREEMENTS. NO, IT'S NOT COME UNDER ATTACK BECAUSE IT WAS INCONSISTENT. WELL, YOU DON'T KNOW THAT YET. NO, IT'S NOT, BECAUSE WE'VE HAD EXPERTS COME OUT AND COMMENT ABOUT THAT. AND NOW WE CAN REINSTATE OR TAKE THE BAN AWAY. AND WE'RE DOING IT IN A RESPONSIBLE WAY, PUTTING THE THRESHOLD IN PLACE, CHARGING WEALTHY FOREIGNERS 15% TAX FOR THE PRIVILEGE OF BUYING A HOUSE IN NEW ZEALAND. THIS IS JUST YOUR MARKETING BROCHURE. AGAIN, LET'S TALK` NO, I RESENT THAT BECAUSE I THINK YOU'VE GOT TO BE REALLY CLEAR. WE HAVE ACTUALLY GONE THROUGH AND LAID UP OUR APPROACH AND BEEN VERY OPEN ABOUT HOW WE HOW ARE WE GOING TO FUND IT. NO, CHRISTOPHER, YOU HAVEN'T BEEN OPEN. YOU HAVEN'T BEEN OPEN AND TRANSPARENT ABOUT THIS. I WANT TO CIRCLE BACK TO THIS INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLE AGAIN BECAUSE I COME BACK TO TORONTO, AS I SAID, A CITY 20% LARGER ` YOU LIVED THERE, YOU WOULD KNOW ` THAN NEW ZEALAND IN POPULATION, IT HAS A 15% TAX ON FOREIGN BUYERS ON ALL PROPERTIES AND IT ONLY RAISED $250 MILLION LAST YEAR. THAT IS WELL SHORT OF WHAT YOU ARE ANTICIPATING. AND I CAN LOOK AT EXAMPLES IN VANCOUVER, I CAN LOOK AT EXAMPLES IN AUSTRALIA, IN OTHER PLACES. AND THAT'S WHY I'M SAYING TO YOU` WILL YOU RELEASE THOSE NUMBERS? WELL, WE'RE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH OUR NUMBERS. I DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN IT TO YOU ANY MORE. THEY DON'T ADD UP FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE, THEY DON'T ADD UP. THAT'S WHY WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IT, 15 DAYS LATER. I THINK WHAT'S EXCITING ABOUT IT IS THAT ACTUALLY WE'RE THE ONLY PARTY GIVING WORKING PEOPLE A TAX BREAK IN NEW ZEALAND. SO $2-25 A WEEK ON AVERAGE FOR NEW ZEALAND WORKERS ` THIS IS A BIG SCHEME AND THESE ARE BIG NUMBERS AND THERE SEEM TO BE BIG HOLES IN THEM, FOR $2-25 A WEEK FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN NEW ZEALAND. AN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME FAMILY IN NEW ZEALAND WOULD GET $250 A FORTNIGHT, IF THEY HAD YOUNG KIDS, IN OUR PLAN. THERE ARE 130,000 OF THOSE. SO THE REST OF NEW ZEALANDERS, WHO ARE WORKERS WITHOUT KIDS 3 OR 4 YEARS OLD, THAT IS THE GREAT MAJORITY OF NEW ZEALANDERS. AND SO AN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME WOULD GET $100 A FORTNIGHT, A MEDIAN` $25 EACH A WEEK. YOU'RE JUST BUMPING UP THESE NUMBERS. MEDIAN INCOME WORKER EVERY FORTNIGHT WOULD GET $50 A FORTNIGHT. $25 A WEEK? YEP. AND ISN'T THAT GREAT? IT ACTUALLY IS SOMETHING THAT'S HELPING IS HELPING THEM, BECAUSE WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE? THE ALTERNATIVE` GIVE IT TO THE GOVERNMENT, WHO'VE INCREASED GOVERNMENT SPENDING BY 80%, WASTED IT AND I TRUST NEW ZEALANDERS TO SPEND IT AND SAVE IT BETTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT. IT'S A FAMILY SIZE BLOCK OF CHEESE AND SOME CHANGE. I WOULD SAY TO YOU, FOR SOMEONE OUT THERE ON THE MEDIAN INCOME IN NEW ZEALAND GETTING 50` A SINGLE MEDIAN INCOME EARNER GETTING $50 EXTRA EVERY FORTNIGHT IN THEIR PAY POCKET TO SPEND AND SAVE AS THEY SEE FIT IS A REALLY GOOD THING. I WOULDN'T BELITTLE THAT. I'M NOT BELITTLING. I'M SAYING IT'S AT THE MARGINS IN THIS COST OF LIVING ENVIRONMENT, IN THIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. IT'S A WAY IN WHICH WE CAN GET RELIEF TO NEW ZEALANDERS IN THE CLEANEST, BEST WAY THAT GOES STRAIGHT TO THEIR BACK POCKET. YOU WILL WORK WITH ACT, BUT YOU HAVEN'T SAID, HAVEN'T TOLD NEW ZEALANDERS WHETHER OR NOT YOU WILL WORK WITH WINSTON PETERS. HE'S IN IF YOU NEED HIM, ISN'T HE? NO, I HAVEN'T THOUGHT ABOUT WINSTON PETERS AND NEW ZEALAND FIRST. THEY HAVEN'T BEEN IN PARLIAMENT AND THEY HAVEN'T BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD. THEY'RE ABOVE THE THRESHOLD NOW. WHAT I'M FOCUSSED ON IS MAKING SURE THAT NEW ZEALANDERS UNDERSTAND THERE'S AN AWFUL LOT TO STAKE AT THIS ELECTION. I DON'T WANT ANY NEW ZEALANDER WATCHING THIS SHOW TO THINK THAT THEY ARE HELPING OR VOTING FOR ANY OTHER PARTY OTHER THAN THE NATIONAL PARTY. SO WILL YOU WORK WITH HIM? I HAVEN'T GIVEN ANY THOUGHT. YOU MUST'VE. HE'S NOT ABOVE CONSISTENTLY ABOVE THRESHOLDS. WHAT I'M FOCUSSED ON IS MAXIMISING THE NATIONAL PARTY VOTE. THE OTHER SIDE, WE'LL MAKE IT WORK. SO YOU WILL WORK WITH HIM, IF YOU NEED TO, ON THE OTHER SIDE? I'LL MAKE A COALITION WORK. I JUST HEARD THAT YOU WILL WORK WITH WINSTON PETERS ON THE OTHER SIDE IF YOU NEED TO. THAT'S NOT WHAT I SAID. WHAT I'VE SAID TO YOU IS THAT I WOULD WORK WITH A COALITION PARTNER AND IT'S MOST LIKELY TO BE NATIONAL ACT. THAT'S WHAT THE POLLS ARE SAYING. BUT YOU ALSO WOULD WORK WITH HIM. AND I AM GOING TO MAKE SURE I DO EVERYTHING IN MY POWER ON THIS SIDE OF THE ELECTION AS THE LEADER OF THE NATIONAL PARTY TO GET PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND I DO NOT WANT YOU GIVING YOUR VOTE TO ANY OTHER PARTY OTHER THAN THE NATIONAL PARTY. WHY DON'T YOU JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ELECTION ` THE NEW ZEALAND PEOPLE ARE NEVER WRONG ` WHATEVER THEY DECIDE WITH RESPECT TO THEIR VOTES AND WHO THEY DISH UP ON ELECTION NIGHT IS UP TO THEM. AND THEN I HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY IN THAT SYSTEM TO GO FORM A GOVERNMENT. I AM CONFIDENT I CAN FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT WILL BE VERY STABLE, VERY ALIGNED AND GET THINGS DONE FOR THE NEW ZEALAND. WITH WINSTON PETERS. DISAGREE. CHRISTOPHER LUXON, THERE. I DON'T THINK I EVER WANT TO TALK ABOUT TAX AGAIN. NO, I THINK THAT'S QUITE FAIR. GOING TO PUT MY CALCULATOR AWAY FOR A WHILE. RETIRE THE CALCULATOR FOR THE MOMENT. AFTER THE BREAK ` TWO DOCTORS WITH COMPETING VISIONS FOR OUR HEALTH SYSTEM. AYESHA VERRALL AND SHANE RETI, HEAD-TO-HEAD ` UP NEXT. HOKI MAI ANO, WELCOME BACK. TO ONE OF OUR HEAVYWEIGHT DEBATES THIS ELECTION ` IT'S HEALTH. OUR EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS ARE SWAMPED, DOCTORS ARE STRIKING, WAITLISTS ARE LONG, THERE IS A MENTAL HEALTH CRISIS. YOU'D THINK NOTHING COULD BE MORE INTIMIDATING RIGHT NOW THAN TAKING ON THE ROLE OF HEALTH MINISTER. YET, TWO PEOPLE ARE VYING FOR THE JOB. LABOUR'S DR AYESHA VERRALL AND NATIONAL'S DR SHANE RETI. TENA KORUA. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, THANK YOU FOR COMING. I JUST WANT TO SET THE SCENE FIRST ` WE'LL GO TO THE SCREEN OVER THERE. LABOUR HAS BEEN ARGUING THAT IT IS ADDRESSING YEARS OF UNDERSPEND AND NEGLECT IN THE HEALTH SECTOR. SO, WE COMPARED THE LAST SIX YEARS OF NATIONAL'S BUDGET, AND THEY WERE UP BY 18% OVER THAT SIX YEARS, COMPARED TO THE LAST SIX YEARS OF LABOUR, AND THAT WAS A 45% INCREASE OVER THAT SIX YEARS. THAT SOUNDS MASSIVE, DR VERRALL, BUT DOES IT INCLUDE COVID? SOME OF IT WILL, YES. THAT WAS OUR COVID FUNDING, BUT THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES ELSEWHERE ` FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE HEALTH CAPITAL ENVELOPE, AND IN PHARMAC FUNDING, WHICH HAS INCREASED BY 41%. SO, REMOVING COVID, WOULD THAT CANCEL OUT THE INCREASES? NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES. DO YOU THINK IT'S BEEN VALUE FOR MONEY, THAT 45% INCREASE? YES, I DO. IT'S MEANT WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO GROW OUR STAFF. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF DOCTORS IN OUR SYSTEM BY 2000. WE'VE INCREASED THE NUMBER OF NURSES IN OUR SYSTEM BY 5000, IN THE TIME WE'VE BEEN IN GOVERNMENT. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REVERSE THE TREND OF STAGNATING INVESTMENT IN OUR BUILDINGS. WE'VE APPROVED OVER 175 NEW MEDICINES. AND IMPORTANTLY, WE HAVE DEVELOPED A NEW PRIMARY MENTAL HEALTH SYSTEM, AS WELL. SO, WE'VE ALSO GROWN WHAT WE'RE DOING. SO, YOU THINK IT IS VALUE FOR MONEY. DR RETI, NATIONAL'S TRACK RECORD ` THEY SAY THEY'VE BEEN WAY OUTSPENDING YOU, AND NATIONAL HAS UNDERSPENT FOR YEARS ` HOW DO YOU RESPOND TO THAT? WHETHER THERE'S NEW COVID MONEY IN THAT OR NOT, I THINK, WHEN THERE IS NEW MONEY IN HEALTH, THAT HAS GOT TO BE A GOOD THING. I THINK, ACTUALLY, THE LABOUR GOVERNEMNT HAS PUT MORE MONEY INTO HEALTH. GREAT. THE QUESTION I'VE GOT, THOUGH, IS MORE MONEY, MORE BUREAUCRACY, BUT WORSE OUTCOMES. IT'S JOINING THOSE TOGETHER. NONE OF US MIND SPENDING MORE MONEY IN HEALTH ` QUITE THE OPPOSITE ` BUT WE NEED THE OUTCOMES TO GO WITH IT, AS WELL. ALL RIGHT. LET'S TALK OUTCOMES, OK. HEALTH TARGETS ` YOUR POLICY THIS WEEK HAS SET HEALTH TARGETS ` ONE OF THEM IS, YOU WANT 95% OF PATIENTS TO SPEND LESS THAN SIX HOURS IN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS. I SPOKE TO EMERGENCY DOCTORS THIS WEEK, AND THEY SAY THAT 80% IS THE REALISTIC TERM. SURELY, THEY WOULD KNOW? THE TARGET WAS DERIVED WITH THE AUSTRALASIAN COLLEGE OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE. THEY HELPED US FORM IT. WHEN WE FORMED IT` ARE YOU SURE? THEY PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE THIS WEEK SAYING THAT YOU DID NOT CONSULT THEM. THEY PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE SAYING THAT TARGETS SAVE LIVES` AND THAT YOU DIDN'T CONSULT THEM. THE ORIGINAL TARGET WAS CONSULTED WITH THE AUSTRALASIAN COLLEGE OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE, AND IT WAS THE ORIGINAL TARGET. IT'S THE ONE WE HAD FOR DECADES, ACTUALLY. RIGHT. SO, YOU DIDN'T UPDATE IT? YOU DIDN'T GO BACK TO THEM AND ASK, IS THIS STILL REALISTIC? I AM IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH EMERGENCY DOCTORS, AND WILL STAND BY THAT FIGURE, AND WILL REPORT IT REGULARLY, AS WELL. WHY WOULD THEIR TARGET NOW BE 80%, AND YOURS IS 95%? THEY ARE THE PEOPLE ON THE FRONT LINE WHO WOULD KNOW ABOUT IT. THEY ACTUALLY RAISED THAT A FEW MONTHS AGO, SO IT'S NOT NEW THAT THEY WOULD WANT TO RAISE THE TARGET, BUT WE CONSULTED WITH THEM AND THEY HELPED FORM THE ORIGINAL TARGET, WE DECIDED TO CARRY THAT FORWARD, AMONGST OTHER THINGS` IS THAT REALISTIC, THOUGH? THEY DON'T HAVE THE STAFF. AMONGST OTHER THINGS, WE WANT TO SEE CONTINUITY OVER TIME. IF YOU CHANGE THE GOALPOSTS, YOU CAN'T COMPARE HOW YOU WERE DOING BEFORE AND AFTER, ACTUALLY. WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT? I DON'T HAVE AN IDEOLOGICAL PROBLEM WITH TARGETS. THEY HAVE A ROLE. I HAVE SET A SMOKEFREE TARGET. WE'RE MAKING EXCELLENT PROGRESS TOWARDS THAT. I'VE SET A TARGET THAT, FOR NON-ORTHOPAEDIC SURGERY, NOONE SHOULD BE WAITING MORE THAN A YEAR, BY THE END OF THE YEAR. WE'RE GONNA HIT THAT GOAL, AND THAT'S EXCELLENT. BUT THE PROBLEM WITH TARGETS ` AND I KNOW, BECAUSE I WORKED IN HOSPITALS UNDER THE LAST NATIONAL GOVERNMENT ` IS THAT, UNLESS YOU BACK THAT UP WITH RESOURCES, ALL YOU ARE DOING IS BLAMING THE CLINICIANS WHEN THEY CAN'T HIT THE GOAL. IF YOU DON'T PROVIDE THEM WITH STAFF, WITH SPACE AND WITH RESOURCES. THAT'S WHY IT ALL COMES BACK TO FUNDING. SO, I TALKED TO THE ASSOCIATION OF SALARIED MEDICAL SPECIALISTS THIS WEEK, AND THEY FEEL LIKE THE TARGETS, DR RETI, ARE ` IN THEIR WORDS ` 'A STICK TO BEAT SPECIALISTS WITH.' NO, NOT AT ALL. IT'S A DIRECTION OF TRAVEL THAT BRINGS ATTENTION, THAT BRINGS RESOURCES. SO, HERE'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US ` AS I UNDERSTAND IT, THE MINISTER HAS SAID THAT TARGETS WILL NOT BE AT THE FOREFRONT OF HER HEALTH POLICY. I WILL HAVE TARGETS AT THE FOREFRONT OF MY HEALTH POLICY. THEY BRING ATTENTION, THEY BRING RESOURCES, AND THEY BRING A DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, AND I AGREE WITH THOSE DOCTORS WHO SAY` YOU DO NOT HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF BRINGING THE RESOURCES, AND YOU HAVE A $2.1B HOLE IN YOUR TAX POLICY. I AGREE WITH CLINICIANS WHO SAY TARGETS SAVE LIVES. SO, I BACK CLINICIANS, ACTUALLY. HOW WILL YOU FUND THE STAFFING, AND HAVE THE RESOURCES TO GET TO THOSE TARGETS? SO, OUR FISCAL PLAN, WHICH WE'LL ANNOUNCE SHORTLY, WILL DETAIL EXACTLY WHAT THE HEALTH MANIFESTO IS GOING TO COST. I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO BRINGING THAT FORWARD. WE ARE ALL LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT. LASTLY, ON TARGETS, DR VERRALL ` THE LATEST STATS FROM TE WHATU ORA SHOW, IF WE TAKE THE 95% OF PATIENTS WHO SPENT LESS THAN SIX HOURS IN THE NATIONAL TARGET, BUT AT THE MOMENT WE ARE ONLY GETTING 72%. AND THAT'S IS GETTING WORSE. AND THAT IS ON YOUR WATCH. YES, WE HAVE HAD PROBLEMS POST-COVID WITH PEOPLE WAITING TOO LONG FOR CARE. BUT, THERE ARE OTHER OUTCOMES THAT WE ARE DOING VERY WELL ON. SURGICAL WAITLISTS ARE COMING DOWN, WE HAVE A SMOKING RATE REDUCING. PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT ` OUR SUICIDE RATE IS DOWN BY 21%. IF YOU ARE TO SAY, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE IN THE HEALTH SYSTEM? OVER THE LAST THREE YEARS, WE HAVE HAD SOME OF THE LOWEST EXCESS MORTALITY IN THE WORLD. I AGREE THAT, POST-COVID, PEOPLE ARE WAITING TOO LONG FOR CARE, AND IT IS IMPORTANT WE DRIVE THAT DOWN. LET'S GO TO THE PUSH BY YOU TO GET MORE PEOPLE TO GO TO THEIR GP FIRST, TO TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF OF EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS. BUT SOME CLINICS ARE CLOSING, IT'S TAKING WEEKS TO GET AN APPOINTMENT, I DO NOT SEE A POLICY FROM YOU AROUND THAT. WE DO WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT, IN THE NEXT TERM OF GOVERNMENT, WE WANT TO SEE A LOT OF INVESTMENT INTO GENERAL PRACTICES, AND MAKE SURE WE ARE BRINGING CARE CLOSER TO PEOPLE'S HOMES, AND WE ARE INVESTING IN THOSE PLACES IN THE COMMUNITY. BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING IN TERMS OF INCREASING SUBSTANTIAL FUNDING FOR GENERAL PRACTICES. I AGREE. THAT WILL BE A PRIORITY FOR THE NEXT TERM. BUT IT IS A FAILURE OF LABOUR'S TENURE SO FAR. DURING THE COVID RESPONSE, WE USED OTHER INSTRUMENTS TO FUND GENERAL PRACTICE, AND NOW WE NEED TO TO TRANSITION TO INCREASING THE BASELINE ` AS WE HAVE DONE. HIGHEST EVER INCREASE TO GENERAL PRACTICE FUNDING THIS YEAR, IN A LONG TIME. MAY I JUST ADD, WE HAVE DONE A LOT OF WORK WITH THE GENERAL PRACTICE WORKFORCE TO STRENGTHEN THAT. GP TRAINEES ARE PAID THE SAME AS HOSPITAL SPECIALIST TRAINEES, NOW. WE'RE MAKING SURE THAT GENERAL PRACTICES ARE PAID TO FILL LONG VACANCIES, PARTICULARLY IF THEY'RE RURAL. AND YOU WANT TO ADDRESS THAT, SHOULD YOU GET RE-ELECTED? YES. OK. WHAT'S YOUR POLICY, REGARDING BOLSTERING THE GPS? BECAUSE THIS IS THE FRONTLINE. SO, I AM A GP, AND I UNDERSTAND. THEY SPEAK WITH ME FREQUENTLY. FUNDAMENTALLY, WE NEED MORE GPS. AND WE NEED TO RETAIN THE ONES THAT WE HAVE. THERE'S SIGNIFICANT RENUMERATION ISSURES FOR GPs AT THE MOMENT. WE NEED TO LOOK AT RETENTION. WE NEED TO LOOK AT SCOPE EXTENSION, AND HOW THERE ARE OTHERS THAT CAN PROVIDE PRIMARY CARE, AND WE NEED TO COME TO THE PRIMARY-CARE INTERFACE AND DO MORE. I DO AGREE WITH THE MINISTER ` SHE SAID THAT SHE EQUIVILATED THE TRAINING FUNDING FOR GENERAL PRACTICE TRAINEES WITH THE REGISTRARS, AND THAT WAS A GOOD IDEA. THIS SOUNDS GREAT, BUT IF I WANT TO SEE A DOCTOR IN AUCKLAND RIGHT NOW, IT MIGHT TAKE ME WEEKS, I MIGHT HAVE TO GO TO A 24/7 CENTRE. THAT IS A PROBLEM. SO WHAT FUNDING WILL YOU PUT IN THERE TO GET GPS FOR ME TO GO SEE STRAIGHT AWAY? UNDER MY MANIFESTO, YOU'LL SEE, OTHER THINGS ARE` I THINK YOU'LL BE VERY PLEASED. SO WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FUNDING, WAIT FOR YOUR PROMISES. YOU'LL WAIT FOR THE REST OF OUR MANIFESTO TO BE RELEASED. WE HAVE ONE MONTH TO GO AND WE NEED CLARITY ON THE FUNDING. YOU'RE PROMISING THAT? YEAH, I AM. OUR FISCAL PLANNING WILL EXPLAIN HOW WE ARE GOING TO FUND WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DELIVER. OK, YOU HAVE BOTH ANNOUNCED DOCTORR TRAINING PROGRAMS, BUT TRAINING THOSE DOCTORS IS NOT GOING TO ALLEVIATE THE URGENT SHORTAGE OF SPECIALISTS. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE SPECIALISTS STRIKING, AND 40% ARE LOOKING TO REDUCE THEIR HOURS IN THE PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM. IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL SOON BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A SPECIALIST IN THE PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM? ABSOLUTELY NOT. I WAS A HOSPITAL SPECIALIST AND I KNOW HOW MUCH VALUE THEY PROVIDE. THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE UNION AND TE WHATU ORA CONTINUE. I HOPE BOTH PARTIES ARE VERY CLOSE TO AN AGREEMENT THERE. LABOUR'S COMMITTED TO MAKE SURE THAT WE RAPIDLY FILL 300 SPECIALIST PLACES IN THE HEALTH SYSTEM. BECAUSE I THINK A BIG THING IS, WHEN STAFFING ROSTERS WITHOUT ENOUGH PEOPLE, IT IS REALLY CHALLENGING. THAT'S WHY THEY'RE STRIKING, YEAH. THE MAIN WAY WE HAVE TO ADDRESS THAT IS IMMIGRATION IN THE SHORT TERM, TRAINING WILL TAKE TOO LONG` SO, THE ANSWER IS IMMIGRATION. WE HAVE HAD OVER 110,000 INTERNATIONAL DOCTORS COME TO NEW ZEALAND IN THE LAST YEAR, WHICH IS THE HIGHEST` HERE IS A STATISTIC THAT IS DAMNING. THE NUMBER OF PATIENTS WAITING FOR ALMOST 4 MONTHS BEFORE THEIR FIRST APPOINTMENT HAS NEARLY DOUBLED IN THE MAJOR CENTRES IN THE PAST YEAR. MM. YEAH, SO WE HAVE TO BRING THOSE WAITLISTS DOWN. WE HAVE A PLAN FOR DOING THAT, BUT IT INVOLVES STEPPING THROUGH IT. THE FIRST LIST WE PRIORITISE WAS NON-ORTHOPAEDIC SURGERY. WE ARE ON TRACK TO CLEAR THAT. THEN, WE HAVE TO DO THE ORTHOPAEDICS, AND START DOING THIS FOR SPECIALISTS. OK, SO YOU HAVE THOSE GOALS. YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT IS NOT A GREAT SITUATION? NO, IT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. POST-COVID, PEOPLE HAVE WAITED TOO LONG FOR CARE. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TO STEP THROUGH THE SOLUTION IN AN ORDERLY WAY, AND WE ARE. SO, THE MINISTER ACKNOWLEDGES THIS, BUT FOR YOU, DR RETI, DO WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FISCAL PLAN AGAIN? OF COURSE THE PANDEMIC HAS BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR, BUT ALSO, IF WE WANT TO TAKE ABOUT WAIT TIMES, LOOK AT THE TWO YEARS PRIOR TO THAT. EVEN BEFORE IT, WAITLISTS WERE GETTING WORSE. COVID IS A CONTRIBUTOR, BUT EVEN BEFORE COVID, THEY WEREN'T DOING WELL. I AGREE, THE SHORT TERM SOLUTION IS IMMIGRATION. BUT ALSO, RETENTION. RETENTION IS A FEATURE OF WAGES AND SALARY, AND TERMS AND CONDITIONS. SO, WORKFORCE, WORKFORCE, WORKFORCE, TARGETS, ALSO FOCUS ATTENTION, AND THEN FUNDING, REDISTRIBUTING THAT FUNDING BACK TO THE FRONT LINE ACROSS THAT SPECTRUM, IS WHERE THE SOLUTIONS FOR WAITLISTS LIE. SO IT IS MONEY. WE NEED MONEY TO PAY THESE PEOPLE, JUST TO DO THEIR JOBS, AND GET MORE PEOPLE IN. AGAIN, IT IS ABOUT MONEY. YOU STILL CAN'T TELL US? IT IS ABOUT WORKFORCE. WORKFORCE, WORKFORCE, WORKFORCE. SO, THE PROBLEM DR RETI HAS, IS THAT NATIONAL ARE NOT ABLE TO GIVE A CLEAR COMMITMENT TO INCREASING HEALTH FUNDING IN LINE WITH INFLATION, WHICH IS WHERE WE GET THE MONEY TO PAY FOR THE ANNUAL SALARY ROUNDS OF OUR STAFF. LET'S GET THAT ONE SORTED. WILL YOU INCREASE HEALTH FUNDING IN LINE WITH INFLATION? YOUR LEADER SEEMS TO BE FLIP-FLOPPING ON THIS. I WILL INCREASE FUNDING TO THE FRONT LINE IN LINE WITH INFLATION. TO THE FRONT LINE? AT LEAST, IN LINE WITH INFLATION. DOES THE FRONT LINE INCLUDE RADIOLOGY? BECAUSE IT IS ESSENTIAL SERVICES. `GETTING CLOSE TO THE PATIENT, AND HAVING A PATIENT INTERFACE. SOMEONE WHO READS AN X-RAY, IS THAT THE FRONT LINE? BECAUSE IT'S CRITICAL. DO YOU HAVE A PROBLEM THERE, DR RETI, IDENTIFYING WHAT IS FRONT-LINE AND WHAT IS BACK ROOM? NOT NECESSARILY. NOT NECESSARILY? WHAT YOU HAVE SEEN THE GOVERNMENT SAY IS THAT THEY WILL REDUCE BACKLINE STAFF, AS WELL, AS PART OF REPRIORITISATION. SO WE WILL HAVE THAT SAME DISCUSSION AROUND, WHAT IS BACKLINE? BACK LINE, IN MY VIEW, IS THE PR CONSULTANTS THAT WE HAVE, OR COMMUNICATIONS PEOPLE, AND I THINK THERE ARE TOO MANY. TE WHATU ORA SAYS THEY HAVE 154 COMMUNICATIONS CONSULTANTS. TE WHATU ORA HAS` WHAT'S THE SIZE OF THE TE WHATU ORA WORKFORCE? MORE THAN 62,000. OK, SO, IS THAT NOT JUSTIFIED? NO` THEY'RE DOING PUBLIC SERVICE CAMPAIGNS, LIKE IMMUNISATION. I THINK THERE ARE FAR TOO MANY. ADD THOSE FROM THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH, AS WELL. I THINK IT IS FAR TOO MANY. I NEED REAL DOCS, NOT SPIN DOCS. IF WE TAKE DR RETI'S POSITION, TOO MUCH BACKROOM STAFF. WE HAVE SAVED OVER $190M ON SENSIBLE BACK ROOM SAVINGS. THINGS LIKE, THERE WERE 20 DIFFERENT INSURANCE POLICIES, UNDER THE DHB PROGRAM. YOU CANNOT` WHAT'S GOING ON HERE IS THAT THE NATIONAL PARTY ARE TRYING TO GIVE THEMSELVES WIGGLE ROOM ABOUT DECIDING WHIC SERVICES THEY WILL FUND, AND WHICH THEY WON'T. THEY HAVE A $2.1B HOLE IN THEIR COSTINGS` IN THEIR TAX COSTINGS, BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T SEEN THEIR COSTINGS, YET. THAT MEANS THEY WILL HAVE TO FIND THE SAVINGS IN THE HEALTH SYSTEM, AND THAT MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE FRONT-LINE SERVICE CUTS. SO YOU ARE SAYING THAT THERE WILL BE FRONT-LINE SERVICE CUTS? UNDER NATIONAL, THERE WILL BE. HE'S SAYING THERE'S NOT. IT'S INTERESTING THAT YOU BLAME THE DHBS, BECAUSE YOU WERE IN CHARGE OF THEM. THEY'RE NOT A SEPARATE ENTITY AT ARM'S LENGTH ` YOU HAD ANNUAL PLANS THAT YOU HELD THEM TO ACCOUNT FOR ` OR, YOU DID NOT. THERE IS ALWAYS THAT DISCUSSIONS OF, 'OH, UNDER DHBS', BUT YOU WERE IN CHARGE OF THEM FOR FIVE YEARS. THAT'S HISTORICAL. WILL THERE BE CUTS TO FRONT LINE SERVICES UNDER NATIONAL? NO, WE WILL INCREASE FRONT LINE SERVICES. OK, LET'S MOVE ON. SO, ELECTIVE SURGERY WAIT TIMES. I HAVE TWO EXAMPLES THAT HAVE BEEN GIVEN TO ME, THIS WEEK. ONE ` A 9-12 MONTH WAIT IN A MAJOR CENTRE FOR A SIMPLE CHILDREN'S GROMMET OPERATION. SECONDLY, A PATIENT WHO HAS ELECTED TO PAY $30,000 OUT OF THEIR OWN POCKET TO GET A HIP REPLACEMENT BECAUSE THEY COULD NOT WAIT FOR THE PUBLIC SYSTEM. WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT OUR HOSPITALS? THERE HAS BEEN A BACKLOG, IT HAS BLOWN OUT OVER COVID, AND IT ABSOLUTELY NEEDS TO COME DOWN. WHEN I CAME IN, I IDENTIFIED EVERYONE WE NEEDED TO OPERATE ON, TO MEET THAT GOAL OF NOONE WAITING FOR NON-ORTHOPADEIC SURGERY BY THE END OF THE YEAR. THERE WERE 50,000 PEOPLE THAT NEEDED OPERATING ON. WE ARE NOW DOWN TO 9300. WE'RE GOING TO HIT THE TARGET BY THE END OF THE YEAR. WE'RE GOING TO CLEAR IT. SO, THE WORK IS UNDERWAY. DO YOU ACCEPT THAT? I SEE SOME CHANGES. I SEE SOME PLATEAUING AT THE MOMENT, WHICH IS VERY SATISFYING. IT IS UNFORTUNATE FOR THE PEOPLE YOU ARE DESCRIBING. THEY WILL BE IN PAIN ` CHILDREN WITH GROMMETS, IMAGINE WHAT IT DOES TO THEIR EDUCATION. IT'S NOT TRIVIAL. IT IS NOT TRIVIAL. THERE'S ONE MORE STAT I WANT TO GET OUT THERE ` TWO THIRDS OF OUR ELECTIVE OPERATIONS IN NEW ZEALAND ARE NOW DONE IN PRIVATE HOSPITALS. THAT IS PUBLIC-FUNDED OPERATIONS BEING DONE IN PRIVATE HOSPITALS. WE DO NOT HAVE THE INFRASTRUCTURE OR THE STAFF. WE NEED TO GROW OUR PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM. WE ARE. THERE ARE 100 BEDS AND EIGHT THEATRES OPENING ON THE NORTH SHORE SHORTLY; A LARGE SUPERCLINIC OPENING IN MANUKAU, AS WELL, THAT WE ARE REDEVELOPING. HOWEVER, I AM NOT PREPARED TO WAIT, AND LEAVE THOSE PEOPLE WITH THOSE CONDITIONS ON THE WAITLIST. WE NEED TO OUTSOURCE TO BRING IT DOWN, AND GET TO OUR BASELINE, AND THEN MORE SUSTAINABLY OPERATE. SO, YOUR COMMITMENT IS TO BRING IT BACK IN-HOUSE. YES, BUT WE NEED TO CATCH UP. WE CANNOT LEAVE THOSE PEOPLE WAITING. AND WE'LL USE THE PRIVATE SECTOR FOR THE CATCH UP. IS NATIONAL PREPARED TO USE THE PRIVATE SECTOR LIKE THAT? YES, IT IS. THAT'S THE RIGHT DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. WE NEED TO BUILD PUBLIC CAPACITY, BUT IN THE SHORT TERM, WE NEED TO DEAL WITH WAITLISTS, AND THAT INVOLVES COLLABORATING WITH PRIVATE HOSPITALS. AND ONCE IT'S DEALT WITH, YOU'LL BRING IT BACK IN-HOUSE? OR YOU'RE HAPPY TO BE MORE IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR? THE ATTENTION HAS TO BE FOR THE CAPACITY TO BE IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR. SO, YOU BOTH AGREE ON THAT. LET'S TALK IN HEALTH EQUITY. WE KNOW THE LIFE EXPECTANCY STATS ` MAORI, THEY DIE EARLIER. DR RETI, YOU WANT TO ABOLISH TE AKA WHAI ORA, THE MAORI HEALTH AUTHORITY. HOW WOULD THAT INCREASE THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF MAORI? WHAT THAT WILL DO IS, IT WILL ALOW US TO BRING MORE FOCUS AND MORE ATTENTION AND IMPORTANTLY, MORE DECISION-MAKING, CLOSER TO HOME, CLOSER TO THE HAPU. UNFORTUNATELY, WHAT THE REFORMS HAVE DONE, IS THEY'VE CENTRALISED DECISION-MAKING, THEY'VE CENTRALISED FUNDING ` AND THAT INCLUDES FOR THE MAORI HEALTH AUTHORITY, AS WELL. ALL THE MAORI HEALTH PROVIDER CONTRACTS, ALL HALF A BILLION OF THEM, ARE NOW HELD IN WELLINGTON BY THE MAORI HEALTH AUTHORITY. WE THINK THAT, ALONG WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE HEALTH REFORMS, THAT DECISION-MAKING, THAT FUNDING SHOULD MOVE AS CLOSE TO HOME, AS CLOSE TO THE HAPU, AS POSSIBLE. OK, SO YOU THINK THAT WOULD INCREASE MAORI LIFE EXPECTANCY. WHEN YOU WERE ASKED RECENTLY ABOUT ONE OF THE MAJOR BARRIERS TO HEALTH, YOU TALKED ABOUT THE LACK OF EMBODIMENT OF TE TIRITI O WAITANGI. SO, WE'VE JUST TALKED ABOUT THE LACK OF WORKFORCE AND FACILITIES ` HOW IS THAT THE MAJOR BARRIER TO HEALTH IN NEW ZEALAND? IT IS A MAJOR BARRIER TO ADDRESSING THE ISSURE OF HEALTH EQUITY, BECAUSE MAORI ARE DYING SEVEN YEARS EARLIER, I THINK THAT IS AN EXISTENTIAL CHALLENGE FOR OUR HEALTH SYSTEM. SO, WHAT TE AKA WHAI ORA IS IS, IT IS GIVING AN INDEPENDENT VOICE FOR MAORI. THAT'S THE MAIN DIFFERRENCE ` IT IS INDEPENDENT OF THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH. HOW WOULD THE MAORI HEALTH AUTHORITY INCREASE THAT LIFE EXPECTANCY? BECAUSE IT HOLDS EVEYONE ELSE IN THE SYSTEM TO ACCOUNT FOR OUTCOMES FOR MAORI. IT ASKS TE WHATU ORA, WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT CANCER OUTCOMES FOR MAORI. ALSO, I JUST REJECT DR RETI'S IDEA THAT IT IS CENTRALISATION. PART OF THAT IS HAVING IWI MAORI PARTNERSHIP BOARDS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL, MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT PRIMARY AND COMMUNITY CARE. WE HAVE RUN OUT OF TIME. HEALTH HAS SO MANY FACETS TO DISCUSS. THANK YOU BOTH FOR YOUR TIME TODAY, DR RETI, DR VERRALL. THAT IS OUR HEALTH DEBATE FOR THE ELECTION. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. A MURI AKE NEI ` IT'S YOUR LUCKY DAY, BECAUSE WE HAVE POLLED ONE OF THE MOST INTRIGUING BATTLEGROUND ELECTORATES OF 2023. PLUS ` THE GOOD, THE BAD... AND THE CRINGE. FINN HOGAN'S WRAP OF THE WEEK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. HOKI MAI ANO, WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT AN INTRIGUING RACE UNFOLDING IN WELLINGTON CENTRAL. FOR 15 YEARS, GRANT ROBERTSON HAS HELD THE SAFE RED SEAT, BUT THIS ELECTION, HE'S NOT RUNNING ` LEAVING IT WIDE OPEN. HERE'S SENIOR REPORTER LAURA WALTERS ON THE TIGHT FIGHT FOR THE CAPITAL. (APPLAUSE) IBRAHIM OMER IS FIGHTING FOR HIS POLITICAL LIFE. THIS COULD GO EITHER WAY. FOR 15 YEARS, WELLINGTON CENTRAL HAS BEEN HELD BY THIS GUY. NOW, OMER HOPES TO REPLACE HIM. LABOUR'S PREDOMINANTLY HELD THIS SEAT SINCE 1905. DO YOU THINK THAT IT'S A GIVEN THAT YOU WILL WIN IT AGAIN THIS ELECTION? WE ARE NOT TAKING ANYTHING FOR GRANTED. SO OMER IS HITTING THE STREETS... I'M RUNNING FOR WELLINGTON CENTRAL. ...AND THE STEPS. THAT'S A GOOD ONE. WELLINGTON CENTRAL HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN A BATTLE OF THE BIG DOGS, BUT IN JANUARY, GRANT ROBERTSON PULLED OUT. JAMES SHAW FOLLOWED SUIT A MONTH LATER. I DON'T THINK THAT I WOULD BE ABLE TO SERVE THE PEOPLE OF WELLINGTON CENTRAL 100%. AND WAITING IN THE WINGS WAS YOUNG CITY COUNCILLOR... TAMATHA PAUL! (CHEERING, APPLAUSE) AND THERE'S A THIRD CONTENDER. NO, NOT ED SHEERAN, SCOTT SHEERAN. SINCE LANDING BACK IN AOTEAROA FROM DUBAI, THE NATIONAL PARTY CANDIDATE HAS BEEN GETTING HIS FACE OUT THERE. I MEAN, I'M NEW, BUT ACTUALLY PEOPLE ARE RESPONDING REALLY POSITIVELY. THE THREE CONTENDERS BROADLY AGREE ON THE ISSUES FACING THE CAPITAL. IT'S TRANSPORT, YOU KNOW. IT'S HOUSING. IT'S A LACK OF INVESTMENT. HOUSING AND TRANSPORT. MORE HOUSING. MORE PUBLIC TRANSPORT. THEN THERE'S CLIMATE CHANGE AND, OF COURSE, COST OF LIVING. THE WORKERS THAT CARRY OUR CITY ON THEIR SHOULDERS CANNOT AFFORD TO LIVE HERE. THE CANDIDATES SAY THEIR BACKGROUNDS SET THEM APART. OMER IS STANDING ON BEHALF OF THE UNDERDOG. I GREW UP IN A HOUSEHOLD THAT STRONGLY BELIEVED IN SOCIAL JUSTICE. A FORMER REFUGEE AND TRADE UNIONIST, OMER RODE THE RED WAVE TO PARLIAMENT IN 2020. BUT AT 37TH ON THE PARTY LIST, WINNING WELLINGTON'S CENTRAL IS HIS ONLY WAY BACK. I HAVE NO PLAN B. THIS IS THE LABOUR SEAT. FOR MANY YEARS IT'S BEEN LABOUR, AND I HAVE EVERY INTENTION TO KEEP IT THAT WAY. NOT IF PAUL HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT. AT THE START OF THIS CAMPAIGN I HEARD A LOT ABOUT THIS BEING A SAFE LABOUR SEAT, AND I THINK THAT COULDN'T BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. SHE SAYS SHE UNDERSTANDS WELLINGTONIANS. THE AVERAGE AGE OF WELLINGTON CENTRAL IS 26. I AM 26; I'M A RENTER; I'M A RECENT GRADUATE. I THINK I FIT PERFECTLY INTO THE DEMOGRAPHIC THAT POLITICIANS LOVE TO TALK ABOUT. IN 2020, CHLOE SWARBRICK WON AUCKLAND CENTRAL, MAKING HER THE ONLY GREEN ELECTORATE MP. LAST YEAR, GREEN-ENDORSED CANDIDATE TORY WHANAU BECAME WELLINGTON'S FIRST WAHINE MAORI MAYOR. IN THIS ELECTION, PAUL HAS A REAL SHOT OF RIDING A MINI GREEN WAVE. I'VE GOT A TRACK RECORD. OF ALL THE CANDIDATES, MINE SPEAKS THE LOUDEST TOWARDS PROGRESS FOR OUR CITY. THE CITY COUNCILLOR HAS A PROFILE AND A PACKED SCHEDULE. AND I IMAGINE THAT WRITING NOTES ON YOUR HAND HELPS KEEP IT ALL IN YOUR HEAD WHEN YOU'RE JUGGLING A LOT OF THINGS. YEAH, SO MUCH THAT I WANT TO SAY AND SO LITTLE TIME. SO I'VE GOT TO WRITE IT ON MY HAND. NATIONAL'S WON THE PARTY VOTE IN WELLINGTON BEFORE. YEAH, COOL, EH? AND THIS YEAR, SHEERAN WILL BE HOPING FOR A SPLIT IN THE LEFT VOTE, MAKING WAY FOR HIM TO RIDE NATIONAL'S MOMENTUM ALL THE WAY TO PARLIAMENT. THIS IS ALL ABOUT MY CHILDREN, THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE THAT THEY'LL HAVE AND THE VALUES THAT WE HAVE AS NEW ZEALANDERS. THE FATHER OF THREE STARTED OUT AT THE FREEZING WORKS AND ENDED UP WORKING AT THE U.N. AND YOU CAN TELL. I WILL LISTEN TO EVERY SINGLE VOICE. LISTEN TO ALL VOICES IN THE CITY. LISTEN TO EVERYBODY. I WANT TO LISTEN TO EVERYONE. BUT HE'LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL OCTOBER 14TH TO HEAR WHAT VOTERS HAVE TO SAY. SO ` WHO IS LEADING IN WELLINGTON CENTRAL? WE COMMISSIONED A NEWSHUB NATION REID RESEARCH POLL TAKEN LAST WEEK BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 3RD AND SEPTEMBER 14TH. IT ASKED WHICH PARTY PEOPLE VOTED FOR LAST ELECTION. IN 2020 IT WAS A LABOUR RED WAVE, WITH 43%, FOLLOWED BY THE GREENS ON 30% ` NATIONAL, A DISTANT THIRD, ON 14%. BUT WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YEARS MAKES. LABOUR'S VOTE HAS PLUMMETED BY MORE THAN 15 POINTS. ITS NOW LEVEL-PEGGING WITH NATIONAL, WHICH HAS JUMPED 13 POINTS. JUST BEHIND ARE THE GREENS ON 26.5%. AND THAT SUPER TIGHT RACE FOR THE PARTY VOTE IS MIRRORED WHEN IT COMES TO THE CANDIDATES. LABOUR'S IBRAHIM OMER IS OUT IN FRONT ON 30.6 POINTS, NATIONAL'S SCOTT SHEERAN ON 28, AND THE GREENS' TAMATHA PAUL ON 26.6. JUST 4 POINTS SEPARATE THE TOP THREE CANDIDATES AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS 4.4% ` THIS IS ANYONE'S TO WIN. AND HERE ARE THE FRONTRUNNERS ON THAT VERY TIGHT RESULT. THE VIBE ON THE GROUND IS ACTUALLY QUITE POSITIVE. THERE'S A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR US. WE'VE COME FROM BEHIND IN WELLINGTON CENTRAL, AND I'M VERY PROUD OF THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE'S MINDS THAT WE'VE ALREADY CHANGED. AND I'M WORKING VERY HARD ON NATIONAL'S TRAJECTORY FOR SUCCESS. WE HAVE MADE 30,000 DOOR KNOCKS AND PHONE CALLS, SO FAR. WE'VE STILL GOT A MONTH TO GO, SO... YEAH, WE'RE TAKING NOTHING FOR GRANTED. SO, IT'S GAME-ON IN THE CAPITAL. E WHAI AKE NEI ` OUR POLITICAL PANEL, ELLA HENRY AND BEN THOMAS. PLUS, FINN HOGAN WRAPS UP ANOTHER UP AND DOWN WEEK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. HOKI MAI ANO, WELCOME BACK. I'M JOINED NOW BY OUR PANEL ` PROFESSOR ELLA HENRY FROM AUT'S BUSINESS SCHOOL, AND FORMER NATIONAL PARLIAMENTARY STAFFER BEN THOMAS, NOW WORKING IN PR. TENA KOUTOU, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAMME. FASCINATING POLL NOW. IT'S OPEN DOWN THERE, ELLA. GALVANISING. WE CAN LOOK AT 2020 AS AN ANOMALY. THERE IS A SHIFT OF PEOPLE'S THINKING ON THE GROUND. IT SHOWS THE SORT OF WEAKENING OF LABOUR THAT THEY ARE VULNERABLE IN WHAT IS USUALLY A SAFE SEAT FOR THEM. AT THE SAME TIME, TAMATHA HAS LONG LOCAL HISTORY AS A COUNSELLOR. SHE HAS A VERY HIGH LOCAL PROFILE. THE GREENS OBVIOUSLY RESURGENT IN THE LEFT-WING ELECTORATE. A REAL CHANCE THERE, BUT ALSO SCOTT SHEERAN HAS A SNIFF IF THE LEFT GETS ITS ALLOCATION A BIT WRONG. HE COULD COME RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE. HE HAS SLID INTO TO HOME BASE. THE IRONY COMING FROM HIS BACKGROUND, ONE ASKS HAS BEEN A DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT IN WELLINGTON? IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE. MAYBE THE ELECTORATE IT CHANGING. I WANT TO SWITCH NOW TO THE CAMPAIGN. IT HAS BEEN A WEEK OF TAX. DOES IT FEEL LIKE IT'S TIME TO DRAW A LINE UNDER THIS? I THINK YOU SHOULD PUT THAT QUESTION TO CHRISTOPHER LUXON. I THINK NATIONAL PROBABLY DIDN'T EXPECT THAT THE QUESTIONS WOULD KEEP COMING FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UNDERSTATED ASSUMPTION HERE IS THAT ESSENTIALLY THERE IS A MARKET FOR NEW LUXURY APARTMENTS THAT MAYBE IS NOT APPARENT YET, BUT COULD BE KIND OF STIRRED UP IN THE EVENT THAT THERE ARE A FEW BIG DEVELOPMENTS. ESSENTIALLY I THINK NATIONAL WILL BE LOOKING TO MOVE ON FROM THIS AS SOON AS THEY CAN. IT OCCURRED TO ME THAT, IT WAS WRITTEN IN THE HERALD THAT PERHAPS THIS IS ACTUALLY NOT THAT BAD FOR NATIONAL BECAUSE THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO LIKE THE IDEA OF HOUSES GOING UP. I HAVE THREE DAUGHTERS WHO ARE MILLENNIALS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THEM. TAXES ARE THINGS THAT SPEAK TO THOSE YOUNG ONES LOOKING AND WONDERING IF THEY'LL BE ABLE TO AFFORD A HOUSE. I THINK THAT IS RESONATING FOR THEM IS A BIT OF A VOTE WINNER. WE NEED SOME MORE POLICY. I THINK WILL GET THAT FROM THE MINOR PARTIES THIS WEEK. THAT HAVE DOMINATED THIS ISSUE THIS WEEK ` NATIONAL'S TAX LOOPHOLE. THIS IS A SMALL TARGET ELECTION FOR BOTH MAJOR PARTIES. THEY WANT TO FIGHT ON THE COST OF LIVING ` NATIONAL WITH TAX CUTS AND LABOUR WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLES. IT IS THE MINOR PARTIES CARRYING THE FLAG FOR SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. WE HAVE SEEN IT WITH THE GREENS, REFORM ON BENEFITS AND TAX REFORM. ACT SWINGING A BATTLE AXE WHEN IT COMES TO PUBLIC SERVICE, THEY ARE WANTING SOME MAJOR REFORM OF HOW WE FUND OUR PUBLIC SERVICES. WANT TO TALK TO ABOUT THE HEALTH DEBATE. THERE WAS PLENTY THAT THEY AGREED ON. I WAS KIND OF SURPRISED, GIVEN THAT THE VENAL NATURE OF THE ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR WHICH HAS TURNED A LOT OF PEOPLE OFF. LIKE THE YOUNG FOLK WHO ARE SAYING THEY CAN'T BE BOTHERED WATCHING THE NEWS BECAUSE THEY ALL JUST BEING SO HORRIBLE. I THOUGHT THEY WERE QUITE GRACIOUS AND ACCEPTED THAT THERE WERE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN EACH OTHER'S POLICIES. I'D LIKE TO SEE THAT REFLECTED IN OTHER PORTFOLIOS. WE WANT TO SEE WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DELIVER AND HOW THEY ARE GOING TO DO IT. AND IT'S AN INTERESTING CASE STUDY IN HAVING SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. THEY ARE BOTH DOCTORS WHO KNOW THE SYSTEM. WE DON'T SEE THIS IN A LOT OF PORTFOLIO MATCHUPS IN PARLIAMENT. IT WAS FASCINATING. I FOUND IT QUITE ENJOYABLE TO WATCH TOO. IT WAS GOOD TO GET INTO SOME OF THE DETAIL OF THESE THINGS. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE. A SHORT PANEL, BUT THANK YOU BOTH. STAY WITH US, WE'RE BACK AFTER THE BREAK. HOKI MAI ANO, WELCOME BACK. WELL, WE'RE TWO WEEKS INTO CAMPAIGN MODE, WITH FOUR MORE TO GO... ALREADY FEELS LIKE AN ETERNITY. BUT HERE IS FINN HOGAN WITH SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS. WELL, HE'S PUTTING A BRAVE FACE ON, BUT CHIPPY DOESN'T LIKE THE LOOK OF HIS NUMBERS. I'M COPING. MEANWHILE, LUXON FEELING NOT-SO-QUIETLY-CONFIDENT. BIT MORE THAN ALL GOOD, THOUGH, ISN'T IT? WELL... HE'S BEEN SURE TO, AT LEAST, SNACK ON HUMBLE PIE, BECAUSE HE'S STILL UNDER ATTACK ` PARTICULARLY, OVER HIS TAX POLICY. CALM DOWN, CALM DOWN. JUST LET ME STEP YOU THROUGH IT. BUT EVEN HIS LACK OF HAIR ` THOUGH HE'S DOING HIS BEST TO OWN IT, AND MAKING NEW FRIENDS ALONG THE WAY. I GOTTA GET MY BALD BROTHER IN HERE. LOOK AT THIS MAN, HEY. I ALWAYS LIKE TO SEE A SHORT BALD MAN. YOU'RE A GOOD-LOOKING MAN. MEANWHILE, THE PRIME MINISTER SLOGS ON. GET MY HAIR RIGHT. INSISTING ` THERE'S ONLY ONE POLL THAT MATTERS, AND THAT'S THE POLL THAT EVERYONE TAKES PART IN ON ELECTION DAY. IT IS NICE TO SEE THEM OUT AND ABOUT. OUT OF PARLIAMENT IN WELLINGTON. I'M NOT SURE IF I WANT TO BE TOUCHED BY CHRIS LUXON ON THE HEAD. HE KNOWS THAT NOW. THAT'S ALL FROM US FOR NOW. THANKS FOR WATCHING. WE'LL BE BACK ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH OUR LIVE POWERBROKERS' DEBATE. IT WILL BE THE BATTLE OF THE KINGMAKERS ` FOUR MINOR PARTY LEADERS ALL VYING FOR YOUR VOTE. 7.30 THURSDAY ON THREE AND THREENOW. AND, OF COURSE, WE'LL ALSO SEE YOU HERE NEXT WEEKEND. NA SALLY HARPER RAUA KO JESSIE PURU NGA KUPU HAURARO I HANGA. NA TE PUNA WHAKATONGAREWA NGA KUPU HAURARO I TAUTOKO. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ COPYRIGHT ABLE 2023 HE MEA TAUNAKI TE HOTAKA NEI NA TE PUBLIC INTEREST JOURNALISM FUND.