- Ko Mauimua, Mauiroto, Mauitaha, Mauipae, Ko Maui Tikitiki o te Rangi. I herea ai te ra e tu iho ki runga ra e. Ko Whakatau anahe te toa i tamaua. Whiti roua, haramai te tokia, Haumi e, hui e, taiki e. This week on the Hui ` Our political panel discusses the best performers from our Maori electorate debates... - Poverty is a political choice. - ...and predicts who will take that momentum into the voting booths on Saturday. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2023 Te hunga kua riro ki tua, tokihi wairua ki te tihi o mauri aitua, haramai, haere. Tatou e nonoho nei ki te hahatanga o te whenua, tihewa mauri ora, and welcome back to The Hui. There are just five days to go until election day, and who the heck knows what will happen at the end? Who will win in the Maori electorates? Who will be the government? Who will lead the country? Or could we go back to the polls again? We have our political experts with us to discuss all that and more. So joining us now is Professor of International Business Strategy and Entrepreneurship ` I just love that title ` Ahorangi Ella Henry is here. Tena koe e te Ahorangi. Hoki mai ano. Associate Professor at the School of History, Philosophy, Political Science and International Relations ` love that title too ` Associate Professor Lara Greaves is here as well. Tena koe, e hoa, hoki mai. And professor of hard knocks and clean living` (LAUGHTER) LAUGHS: professional raconteur and political commentator Matua Shane Te Pou is here as well. - Tena koe. - E te hoa, tena koe. Welcome, e oku rangatira, thank you all for joining us. We've got a whole panel looking forward to the election` are we looking forward to the elections? It feels long. - Absolutely, no. I mean, this is` this is better than Game of Thrones. (LAUGHTER) - One never knows who's going to take the Iron Throne, and that's the most exciting part of it. - Yeah. it feels like` it feels a long campaign for lots of us political scientists; geeks, if I can use that phrase. Does it feel that way for you? - Yeah, I'm tired, and I'm not into it. And I've got to decide who to vote for as well. Like, last election, I had to ring up my mum the last night, being like, 'Who are we voting for?' Cos I'm, like, busy analysing all of it and thinking about all of it, and thinking about all the data, and not thinking about myself and my voter preference. - Yeah. Shane? - No, I'm a junkie. I love it. - (LAUGHS) - It's what I` it's what I live for. Once this election is over, I'll start focusing on the American election... (LAUGHTER) - Then I'll start on the` (STAMMERS) on the British election. - Gee. - No, but I do get that people are people are hoha, people are tired. You know, a lot of this campaign has been about attacking certain sectors of our society. Maori have been the brunt of that. Our trans whanau have been to the brunt of that. And at that level, it's been quite a different election, and not a lot of korero about policy. - Yeah, we will get into policy. We will get into who our political panel thinks will win on the night; but let's start off, first of all, with the Maori electorates, and the performance of those candidates who have appeared on our Hui Maori electorate debates, Te Potitanga 2023. - My aspiration is that we've got affordable housing, that we've got people in employment and people off the benefit. - Look, this government has built more houses than any government since the 1950s ` in particular, state houses. - So it's not a matter of supply ` the houses are there. How do you release those houses? By putting a ghost house tax on those homes. - Maori home ownership for our people will lift our people out of many of the challenges that they currently face today. - We absolutely need to be stronger and bolder in the way that we address poverty. Poverty is a political choice. - Manurewa Marae was never ever meant to be a food distribution hub. It's now servicing 70,000 kai packs per year. - There's 100,000 people in poverty in this country, and 60% of them are Maori. - We are dying younger in our own country, We're homeless, we're incarcerated and we're also in state care. That's not good enough. - We are the biggest Maori` seven ministers in a government, but we have to work hard against all the other interests of Aotearoa as well. - I will be your kanohi kitea. I will come, I will listen and I will go to Parliament and I will agitate on our behalf. - We are all here for the betterment of our people, no matter which kokonga that we are standing in. - Parliament has to be a place that people see themselves in to be able to take aspiration, hope and opportunity further and farther, because our country needs it. - The Kohanga Reo generation are here, and we have a huge movement and a huge wave of us coming through. - Candidate vote Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. Push for Cush, cos I'll push for you. (LAUGHTER) - There's some pretty strong candidates in those Maori electorate debates. - I've been so enervated by the calibre of candidates right across the spectrum, even those that I don't necessarily agree with politically. I think that we have shone a light into so many dark corners, our candidates, and I'm actually proud to be a Maori when I see that calibre of candidates. - Is` Who stood out for you in particular? - Well, I mean, I'm not going to talk about individuals, because I think there are other people doing that. What I can see clearly is, though, that those who have been in parliament for whom debating is their daily job, are obviously going to do better in this kind of public arena where they're up against people for whom debating is not their day-to-day gristle. And so they do have advantages. But having said that, the calibre has been extraordinary, from the very young, to the much more mature from, you know, right across the spectrum. We have great representation. - Yeah, I love the kind of unpolished nature of the ones that haven't been in the house, though, as well, because people go through media training; they go through, 'Oh, you've got to do this and act this way,' and, you know, rehearse by rote. But I do like the unpolished nature of candidates that are coming through for the first time as well, because you do get a bit more spirit and you do get just, like, a little bit rough around the edges. It's great to see as well, because we want diverse people to look at politics and to look at parliament and go, 'I could give that a go.' - Who has stood out for you? - Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke stood out for me a lot, because I just am just shocked that she's so young` but I know that's patronising to say, but it's just been really cool to see her represent in around a range of different debates, including the young voters debate the other day, and just thrive and kind of be true to herself in a range of environments. And I think that's really cool for rangatahi to see that representation` - And going up against a veteran. - Yeah, I loved that debate. - The Maori` the whaea of the house. - I really loved that debate, and I loved the respectful tone as well, in that, as well. That was beautiful. - Shane. - I know. I think Hana` Hana has been exceptional. She's spoken to her generation, which is important. And you know, this new political movement called the Kohanga Kids. I also` I think our wahine Maori have actually been outstanding, and I'm particularly` Huhana Lyndon, who is articulate, who is very generous in terms of her mannerism, and is` and I think also empowers people that she talks to. And look, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, who only was selected six weeks ago, is making a real run for it in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. And Toni Boynton. That debate where she one-on-one with` with Rawiri; you know, she wasn't intimidated; you could see that she wasn't as mature in her debating approach, but she gave him a run for money. We have got some outstanding candidates, and I've enjoyed getting to know Tama Potaka, who will play an important role in the next government should the likely thing occur, and National` National lead, you know? - OK, so the other thing I wanted to ask ` and I hate to do this, because it's five days away, and it could be seen like you're trying to sway opinion ` but I am interested to know who we think will win in the electorates, because I think there's gonna be some really close races. I mean, do we all agree Te Tai Tonga` and to be honest, I really like Doc Ferris. Takuta Ferris is a very good candidate ` he should be in Parliament, to be honest. But I think it's pretty clear, won't` Rino will win Te Tai Tonga? - my view is that if we look at past voting and Maori patterns, that we tend to vote for people rather than parties and policies, and that has meant a stability across a number of electorates. And my feeling is that that will probably carry through this time. Who is there will stay there. - What about a closely-contested electorate like Te Tai Hauauru and Ikaroa-Rawhiti? - See, I'm not confident about polls. I mean, if you look at the polls last time around for the Maori electorates, you know, they're like a few-hundred people. You've got to, like, somehow get a hold of people and then figure out what roll they're on, and whether they're going to vote and all that kind of thing. So, like, what were they` 12% off in Waiariki last time? - Yeah. - And some of the other ones like Tamaki Makaurau, they're just a bit off. So I'm not` I'm not confident. I think, actually, the Maori electorates are the ones that are most likely to throw up surprises this election. Yeah. - Shane? - I think we're looking at the possibility of a five-two split, Labour holding five, Te Pati Maori holding Waiariki and Te Tai Hauauru; I think Ikaroa-Rawhiti's going to give us all a surprise, and yeah` and I think that Labour could hold there. - Do you think that's because Labour strategically` those candidates didn't put themselves on the list? So people had to vote them to get them. - STAMMERS: I think it is` that is part of it, and I do still think that there's a little bit of a hangover in terms of Meka; the way in which she left Labour. And the other thing is that the Labour Party has a really strong machine in Hastings and Napier and Wainuiomata, and those big polling booths is where it counts. - We will continue the discussion on electorates, but also talk about the parties and who potentially will form the next government after the election. Stay with us, we will have more. Who will be the Government for Aotearoa New Zealand, and much more on The Hui, kia ita tonu mai ra. - Kia ora mai ano. This is The Hui, in our panel discussion leading up to the election. Ella Henry` Professor Ella Henry is with us, Associate Professor Lara Greaves and Mr Shane Te Pou are our panel here. Who will win the election? That is, of course, the big question. And one of the big issues in the campaign for Maori has been race and Te Tiriti o Waitangi. On Thursday last week, we asked representatives of the leading parties in this year's election about this key issue. The ACT Party wants a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi; on Te Tiriti. Why should the majority get to vote on the right of the minority? - I just think we need to have these conversations, because the division around New Zealand is really high right now, because this government has implemented things that people do not understand, and they're actually worried about it. So we're actually only having the conversations... - MARAMA DAVIDSON: Wow... - ...that people out in the community are asking us to have. Asking questions is not racist. - OK. Shane Jones, your party has said that it wants to review, or actually, expunge, principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. - The Treaty created a new reality. It blended` it blended our tangata whenua interests and the Crown. You can't rewrite the treaty either through a referendum` - MARAMA DAVIDSON: Holy hika, matua. or laden it with all the guilt-tripping ideology and victimhood of the other side. - His people support` his support` There's no doubt that race has been playing a part in this election, but I don't think it's from the people. In every focus group we put up, housing, education, health are the priorities. No one really talks about what the ACT Party is waffling on about, but they want the people to be talking about division and the Treaty. It's the ACT Party who wants this. - Our tupuna never, ever ceded sovereignty. They made it really clear the moemoea was always to uphold our mana motuhake and our tino rangatiratanga. Are we worried about co-governance? Holy heck, that's got nothing on tino rangatiratanga. Co-governance is just working together. That's all that is. - Here's the thing ` racism is a symptom of ignorance, and for far too long around Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the country has been left ignorant; devoid of the facts. There've been nearly 45 years of court rulings upholding Te Tiriti o Waitangi. Nobody knows about it. This is the problem. In Aotearoa, there's no prerequisite for a politician ` an MP ` to have any understanding of Te Tiriti o Waitangi or the history of this country. - MARAMA DAVIDSON: That's right. - So let's talk about it. Has race been a big issue in this campaign? - I'm a Maori, so I felt it, and I think it was. I've talked to non-Maori who've said, 'No`' (IMITATES BABBLING) So I do think, though, one of the things that I've found in talking in the communities I've been in, is that the race-baiting ` and I'm gonna call it that ` has actually galvanised a sector of non-Maori communities to say, 'That's not who we are.' And I think that that's reflected in the dropping of ACT's polling. - Yeah. Willie said that that's not something they picked up on, yet, the fact that we've been talking about it ` Te Tiriti, the referendum, potentially, on Te Tiriti; Treaty principles and all those kind of things have come up. You know, people respond ` particularly Maori, respond ` to those kind of issues, right? - Yeah. Well, if you look at the data and you look at different groups and what they think the biggest issue of the election is, everyone says cost of living. But when you look in those top few for Maori, for the Maori electorates, Te Tiriti and Maori issues seem to always be in that top few. Like, that` which does indicate that Maori actually are picking up on the fact that, you know, our rights are under potential jeopardy, in the case of potential government formations that are coming up. And I think that's quite concerning. Because I've been following the Voice to Parliament referendum quite closely in Australia, and like, really` it's on the same day as our election, and I really feel for them, because the same sort of rhetoric, the same sort of discursive strategies, and the things that people are saying is happening here as well as there. - Shane, we saw some pretty strident and very strong contenders in the Maori electorates. Do you think we could see some election strategies, some election splitting by` oh, sorry, some voting strategy by voters to try and get two candidates in one electorate through, like Ikaroa-Rawhiti? - Absolutely. And I think that the party votes in Maori` Te Pati Maori votes in some of those electorates may well be stronger than- than Labour. And I think that that's quite a smart behaviour tactic from our people. I think that, you know, you've seen Te Pati Maori poll at 4%. Not only does that mean they've got a fair chunk of Maori support, they've got a fair chunk of non-Maori support. So I think that there could well be strategic voting, and Te Pati Maori might do well in terms of the` in terms of the party vote. - Ella` Professor Ella Henry, you said that ` I think about five weeks ago ` and I laughed. How wrong I could be, (CHUCKLES) because you said 5%. That actually could happen if Maori go out and pick a Labour Party electorate candidate and then party vote Maori. - And we've proven in the past that we are capable ` very capable ` of strategic voting. You know, if you look at the Maori electorates over the last 30 years, there's been a lot of that since MMP was introduced, and we're getting better at it. Thinking about, 'What is the long-term strategy that I get both of these two 'if I split my vote in this particular way?' Is it enough to change what the polls are saying about the national over-arching outcome? I don't know. - What do you think, Lara? Who's gonna` who's gonna be the government after the` (LAUGHS) the election? - Yeah, I mean, look, it's one of those things we've got to look at the polls. I mean, the polls did underestimate Labour by a few percent, right before, like` so our polls now, this next couple of weeks, are going to be a bit confused, because they kind of include people that have already voted, and` a little bit harder, muddier picture, but they underestimated Labour by a few percent last time around, and Te Pati Maori by half a percent, actually. So there's arguments there to suggest that they might both come up a bit, but probably not enough to really do it. And I think maybe MMP is the winner on the day, (LAUGHS) and, yes, I don't know, it's a bit of a cop out. - (LAUGHS) - But, it's, like, chances are National will be the kind of leading party in government. Chances are. Statistically, probably. - With ACT and New Zealand First? - Yeah. (LAUGHS) the configuration is what's yet to be decided. That's why MMP is the winner on the day. - Look, Winston is in a prime position in terms of being (STAMMERS) the` the kingmaker, and you have to give it to him, eh. You know, this guy was at 2% and he single-handedly, because he is` he is New Zealand First. - Oh, that's a bit harsh on Shane Jones and his Tiktok video, Shane (!) - Yeah, exactly. - (LAUGHS) - But by and large, he's the one that` he's the one that has filled the halls in Dargaville, and in Whakatane and Opotiki, So you have to give it to them. But let's just remember, folks, there's only about 3.5% between the left bloc and the right bloc. And I think that there's a little bit of momentum` a little bit of momentum behind Labour. I don't think they're going to be able to form the government. But I tell you what I think it's gonna be` it's gonna be very difficult to form a coalition and hold that coalition together. - Has that strategy by Nation worked at all? Trying to rule out Winston` you know, John Key ` or Sir John Key, sorry ` the chair of ANZ Bank, who had a $1.1 billion profit for the six months up until 2023, you know, as the guy to try and convince voters not to go with Winston Peters` has that strategy worked at all, Ella? - It does not look it. I mean, we all now know as a nation that Winston's middle name is Phoenix. (LAUGHTER) - Or Lazarus. (LAUGHS) - Or Lazarus. Winston Phoenix Lazarus Peters, because his capacity to come out of nowhere is extraordinary, if you go back a year. And I think that in a way, he fills a need in the political spectrum. You know, little old ladies in Gordonton need somebody to vote for. - And they're gonna turn out and vote. - And they look like they may turn out and vote after they've been to bowls. - But when it looked unlikely that Winston would come through, people turned` that sort of disaffected vote turned to ACT. - Yeah, agree. - But as soon as` and I think that` I think that Luxon made a huge mistake, because he gave those people a reason to go back` a reason to go back to New Zealand First. And here's the reason that they want to go back to` that Luxon needs New Zealand First, because he will not be able to manage long-term the radical, neoliberal economic policy of ACT. - I'm gonna make an executive call, and have a break and then come back, and we're gonna continue this conversation, because I also` how he manages, Luxon, if he is to be, in the lead-up to the election` how he manages this is gonna be really interesting. So stay with us. We have much more after the break. We will look at that, and also issues that have defined this election, and who has the best policies to be able to deal with those issues. That's The Hui. E haere ake nei, i te iwi, kia u tonu mai ra. - Tena ra koutou katoa. We have our political panel of experts` Professor Ella Henry, Associate Professor Lara Greaves and Mr Shane Te Pou on the show with us talking about elections. If Christopher Luxon is to be the prime minister, and that's still an if, I think. (LAUGHS) This is a guy who, it seems, has struggled to get cut-through. When you look at someone like John Key` massively popular. Jacinda Ardern was a massively popular prime minister. If he's to be prime minister, you know, this is a guy on, what, 20-something percent popularity? - Yeah, exactly. But if you look at the comparative likeability of leaders over time, we saw Ardern was incredibly well-liked, and well-liked among Maori as well. John Key` well liked, (LAUGHS) maybe less so among Maori; but the other leaders were all somewhere in between. But Luxon is gonna be coming in, based on Vote Compass data, as one of the least-liked, actually, prime ministers in recent memory. I don't know if we actually have any data going back long enough to show someone that's that low on likeability. And then he's having to` not only then, he's got` coming up against the kind of, that likeability crisis, but then Winston Peters as well. So he's got a lot of challenges ahead of him, forming a government, and kind of going forth as prime minister. - How do you manage Winston` is he manageable? It seems he was under, you know, Helen Clark, when he was with Helen Clark. He seemed to be in the last Labour government. - Helen Clark and Winston had history. They've been in Parliament 20-plus years. I know that Key hadn't been in government for long, but he had` he had a playmaker in Murray McCully, who's no longer` who's no longer on the scene. And also, in terms of where Lara's coming from, some of the` some of those stats for Luxon are pretty` pretty bad. But some of the demographics within those stats are horrific. For instance, women's` women votes. So does he have the political aptitude to hold a coalition deal together between Winston Peters and David Seymour? Do you know what, Julian ` I'm really not sure that he does. - Luxon isn't popular, but it would appear Chris Hipkins isn't that popular either` on pretty much the same polling. And if you have a look at the parties, right` so Maori Party, 3 or 4%, we've talked about, in the polls; the Green Party going up, you know, 12 to 13%, maybe more, particularly if you're taking into account those who are voting overseas. The Labour Party` they're the ones who haven't held up their end. - My view is that for many, many years, the Labour Party in this country has had an identity crisis. And its traditional home base of looking after the poor, the working classes, has been changing as it's moved to a more moderate line. But in the last, really, five years, I think it's struggled to figure out who it's there for. And as long as a political party does not understand who its constituency really is, then I think it's gonna have trouble resonating with that constituency. - Yes, it seems really interesting that we're talking about Labour in this way. A party who had over 50% of the vote in 2020 is struggling past its worst performance, I think, under Cunliffe in 2014. - Yeah, staggering. I've been trying to explain it to various international media outlets, and it's quite challenging, actually, in trying to explain that that was an anomaly. We're probably never going to see a 2020 ever again. All the political scientists in the '90s, when we got MMP, said there's not going to be a single-party majority government, and there you go. But I just assumed they would return to 2017. Like, that would be their kind of baseline level, and the decline wouldn't be more than that. So I think that that's where their identity questions, and all of those sorts of questions come up. - Also, a couple of strategic mistakes. OK, I get the policy bonfire, but what` once they got rid of all those policies, what did they stand for? I wasn't` I wasn't quite sure. And look, let's` let's cut to the chase` GST off fruit` fresh fruit and veggies was never going to inspire the Labour Party heartland. It didn't do it in 2011. It wasn't going to do it in 2023. I talked to activists, I talked to members of Parliament on a daily basis, and they know they ought to have gone to some form of wealth tax to make` so there's a clear difference between National and Labour, and I don't think Labour has articulated that enough. - Yeah, a wealth tax or a CGT or something similar. - Something. - Something, yeah. - Something that can address the huge inequities that have emerged in the last 10, 15 years. The fact` to the point where, you know, Maori housing is an absolute catastrophe. Under-employment, a lack of achievement in the educational sector` these are` these are meat for a party that is going to say 'We can address inequity. 'What's a way of doing it?' It's going to be strategic change, not tinkering around the edges when so many of our family can't even afford fruit and vegetables, you know. - Yeah. - Mm. - It's` It's` I want them to be as great as they potentially could be, so that we do have a gladiatorial fight between the left and the right. - And that's what I don't understand, because actually, most of the polling data shows the majority of New Zealanders actually support some changes to tax in some way. That's what's kind of confusing. There's this disjuncture between where the` where Labour's sitting, and its traditional basis in working-class politics, and then where actually the majority of the public are sitting. - Yeah. OK, The other thing I did want to talk about was turnout. So we've seen already an early voting drop. Now I think we expected one, because 2020 was a different year` many people thought they might not be able to get to the poll on election day, and therefore voted early` 1.2 million at this stage, anyway, in the campaign. I think it's about half that now. Are there concerns about turnout? Do we think there's going to be a low turnout as a result of whatever the issue might be, or whatever the reasons might be for that? - Look, 2020 was an outlier because people voted early before the` as a result of Covid. We're looking at 2017 numbers ` I have nothing other than a little bit of experience in my gut. I'm not sure whether` I'm not sure that` I think we're going to have poor turnout amongst the left, because I don't think there are those motivational policies to get people from Manurewa, Mangere and Manukau East` those type of electorates out. - Low turnout has always hurt the left, right? - Absolutely. Look, I mean, look at how the Maori Party was formed after the foreshore and seabed marches of 2004. We haven't really had a galvanising... anything, to say, 'I am going to go and be counted', and I think that's unfortunate. I think the Greens and the Maori` Te Pati Maori have tried very hard to get us` and certainly, those who are working with rangatahi doing that tripling policy of, you know, get three of your mates to the booth` I think that might make a` in some parts of the country, but up north, where there's no public transport and everybody's struggling for petrol to get to town ` hello, the turnout is going to be low. - E oku rangatira, tena koutou. Ia koutou korero ia koutou whakaaro. I look forward to us, you know, reviewing the` (LAUGHS) election results, at some stage after the election. I was going to ask you what the highlight was, but surely it has to be (SINGS) #I took the PGF... - Yeah. - # ...and gave that back to the people. # Sorry. - Nah. The highlight was quality Maori candidates. - That's right. Tena koe. LAUGHS: Tena koutou katoa. That was our panel, Professor Ella Henry, Associate Professor Lara Greaves and Shane Te Pou. Oku mihi ki a koutou katoa. Now don't forget we have The Hui post-election special live on Sunday morning on Three at 9.30am. That's on Three Live and also online, with representatives of the leading parties in this election, dissecting the results of Saturday night. That's The Hui post-election show at 9.30am on Three and online. And we are back next Monday to review the results with our political panel of experts. Kia ahatia, i a tatou e ngahunga atu ana ki Te Potitanga, haere mai nei, ka rere tonu te aroha ki te hunga kua riro. And we look forward to the election, but we also continue to mourn those we have lost, and in particular, one of the greatest athletes in Maori sports history, Jason Wynyard; he uri no Ngati Manu, no Ngapuhi, no Ngati Maniapoto, passed away after a long battle with cancer. Earlier this year, the Hui reporter Ruwani Perera broke the news of Jason's cancer diagnosis and the struggle he and his whanau faced. The Hui closes its show tonight with a special tribute to the late, great Jason Wynyard. Kia mau ki te turanga o Taputapuatea, haumi e, hui e, taiki e. (SOMBRE MUSIC) - Jason Wynyard put timber sports on the map. - He's just been so incredibly successful. He's an unreal athlete. He showed everyone how good he is by winning timber sports nine times, you know? - TAI WYNYARD: I took up wood chopping because of Dad` watching Dad compete when I was young. Just wanted to be like Dad. I kind of wish he had've been able to see the New Year's Honour that I received, cos I was really proud to win that, and he would have been really proud too. - JASON WYNYARD: The journey's been a tough one, and today was really tough. The support just humbles me, and I feel I can confront anything, with love and support of all these people. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2023 - Ko te reo te take. - Na Te Puna Whakatongarewa Te Hui i tautoko.