- Whiria te tuatini he kotuku whenua e, ki taku whenua e. E whakatau ana i Te Hui e tau nei e. Haumi e, hui e, taiki e! This week on the Hui ` the blue wave swept the country on election night. - New Zealanders have chosen change, and our new government will deliver it. - We discuss the collapse of Labour, the swing to the right and the rise of Te Pati Maori in the Maori electorates with our political panel. Nga mate ka takahi atu i te ara namunamu ki Taiao. Haere mai, haere. Tatou e pupuri ana i te akaaka o te whenua. Tihe-wa mauri ora and welcome back to The Hui. Wow! It has been an interesting election campaign, to say the least. And it was an interesting election night. So, what the heck actually happened? Joining us now are commentators who were a part of the main broadcasts on the night on either TV Three Newshub or on TVNZ or on RNZ. She is Ahorangi Professor of International Business Strategy and Entrepreneurship at AUT University. She was on the RNZ commentary broadcast team on Saturday night. Ahorangi Ella Henry, tena koe. Welcome back. - Kia ora. - He is the senior lecturer at the Faculty of Law at Victoria University, Te Herenga Waka, and was a part of the TVNZ coverage on Saturday night. Morgan Godfery, tena koe e hoa. Hoki mai. - Tena koe. - And she is a broadcaster and communications expert extraordinaire and was a part of the Newshub commentary team on Saturday night. Mani Dunlop, tena koe. Nau mai ra. Thank you all very much for being a part of the programme with us here now. What a night. (CHUCKLES) Keen to just get your overall thoughts. As it was going down on the night, what were you thinking, Ahorangi? - Well, I mean, obviously we were all chained to the results as they were coming through, and the slips and slides of them. I mean, I'm a Maori; I was heartened ` as a Maori woman, more heartened by how well Maori women did across the board. So congratulations to all of them. Kia kaha mana wahine. Obviously, we know that the left in this country is going to have to do some work to re-win the hearts and souls of the working New Zealander, let alone the Maori community. So that's something that we're gonna have to watch. - A couple of points that I will pick up on later on as well. Morgan Godfery, what stood out for you? - When I saw the results in Te Tai Tonga and Tamaki coming through, I was thinking, 'Holy heck. I was in The Hui studio saying that Rino Tirikatene was gonna smoke it 'and Peni Henare was safe as houses.' And now look ` he's only about 500 votes ahead and Rino Tirikatene has lost his seat to Takuta Ferris, which I think no one saw coming. So I think there's probably a dose of humility on my part, but also on the part of some of the polls, too, which were predicting results which we absolutely did not see on the night. So that surprises in the Maori electorates. - I do wanna say one of our panellists made it very clear to us she thought the Maori Party was on the rise. So we'll come to that and we'll talk about Maori electorates as well. Mani Dunlop, we were here. - We were. We were here with a laser kiwi, which was what everyone was talking about. No. I totally agree with my mate's korero here, and I think it was a bit of a emotional rollercoaster for Maori that night. When we saw those numbers coming in for those Maori electorates, I was quite shocked as well. And I have to eat my words too. I was the same with Nanaia, and I said that was her job until she retired. And so, yeah, I'm being humbled as well. But I think that emotional rollercoaster that Maori would have gone through was the rise of the Maori Party, that generational change and shift, which I'm sure we'll talk about soon, but then kind of the realisation of what the coalition government will look like. So, you know, a positive movement, but then coming back down of like, what is the reality of those seats, sitting in opposition? - Let's keep going, then, on the Maori electorates for now, because we've all started there. And as I said, there was one of the panel who made it very clear she thought the Maori Party was on the rise ` and that was you, Ahorangi Ella Henry. You saw it. Were you surprised that it came out that way on the night, though? - I mean, pleasantly surprised, I have to say. But what I'd been looking at and what I'd been hearing ` and I'm fortunate to be in a rangatahi community in my work and my research ` is the groundswell, the ways that both the Greens and the Maori Party used their social media strategy so effectively, that I thought, this has got to end in some kind of positive outcome for them. And I think it has, genuinely. - How... and I think people are still trying to process the loss of Nanaia Mahuta, actually, after so many years in Parliament. Why did that happen, do you think? - Oh, ka nui te aroha ki a ia, because she has served not just New Zealand politics but te ao Maori so well for so long, and as part of that tradition. But we have to remember that that electorate starts in South Auckland, in Manukau ` and Papakura, Manurewa, they have some of the highest populations of Maori in the country, therefore in the world, and often that's where the youngest are. So to motivate that community, I think, was the foundation. We won't know till we start looking at the polling booth votes. But I think that's where we'll see the real shift, is in our urban communities. - And Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke seemed to capture and garner the attention not only in media but on the ground as well, of kohanga reo movement, kura kaupapa movement, hence potentially leading to her win in that electorate. - I think we're on the verge of seeing a new wave, just as we did ` remember, the Maori world, te ao Maori was devastated by the impacts of the Second World War, and yet a new generation of Maori leaders emerged out of that catastrophe. I see a similar kind of thing happening now. - Tena koe. You talked about Takuta Ferris. I mean, potentially that's one of the bigger` the biggest upset on the night in the Maori electorates. Why do you think he ended up winning that electorate? What led to the loss of Rino Tirikatene, and Takuta Ferris MP? - I think there was an element of ` a small element of strategic voting. Because Rino is back in Parliament. He's still there because he was 21st on the list. So whether he won the seat or not, he was guaranteed to be back, or almost guaranteed to be back anyway. And I do think a number of people made that strategic judgement, maybe if we vote Takuta, well, we still get two MPs in Parliament. So I think there was a little bit of that. But also there's a demographic shift occurring in the biggest part of Te Tai Tonga, and that's Wellington. So although Ngai Tahu will come home for Rino every day of the week ` of course, he's a Tirikatene. But in Wellington, that is where the votes are. And that is where ` and Mani will see this, because she lives in Wellington ` that there is a different generation of Maori coming through in that part of Te Tai Tonga, and I think that's probably where the decisive impact would have been. - And know we're gonna talk about general elections later on with Tamatha Paul, who also won in Wellington Central, and the move from the Greens as well ` in Rongotai, of all seats. But the other one I want to pick up on, Mani, is Ikaroa-Rawhiti ` when the trend is going to the Maori Party, and all of a sudden Cushla Tangaere, very little time to get a campaign going, smokes home by 3000 votes. - Yeah, I think a few things at play there. Potentially people disheartened by Meka jumping without a valid reason that she may have communicated ` not communicated to her constituents. And Cushla did do a good campaign on the ground. She focused on the areas that didn't know her, like Ngati Kahungunu, which you'd think that's Meka, that's Meka's spot, and that's where she would have pulled a lot of the votes, to make an assumption. But then on the coast, Cushla didn't have to fight for those votes, because she was well known on the coast. I had never called it for Cushla, to be honest. I thought Meka had a good chance. I thought she had a good chance. But yeah, no, I think this is potentially an aspect of a little bit of disheartedness by those constituents, of that jump that she made. - Yeah. Do we think ` and maybe this is too early, because, as we said, we're still waiting for some special votes that could have an impact in Tai Tokerau and Tamaki Makaurau. But have we got to a point where Labour needs to seriously reconsider its relationship with the Maori Party and that coalition on the left ` do they need to start talking to each other and being a lot more strategic in the way they play the political game going forward? - I absolutely agree with that. And let's be clear, Labour has not had to have that relationship in the last three years. They won an absolute majority. Now, my view is if they had used that power with more humility in their dealings with the Maori Party, I think it would have been a different outcome in many ways. So maybe they go back to the planning point. Because some good things were achieved for Maori out of the last three-year term. And I don't think they were promoted well enough. And I think we need to see a rejigging of the left. - Yeah, I do wanna pick up on that, because there's been quite different commentary about was this a vote against the Labour Maori caucus and people not being happy with what they did or didn't do in the last three years? You have to remember, the biggest Maori caucus in our history. Did they do enough? Did they just not sell it enough? Or is this the generational shift? And I think there's an element of both of those things that contributed to why that support ` for the rise of the Maori Party. But I'm not too sure. I think the next three years we are gonna see the left really mobilise. How they do that and how strategic they are going to be about that, that will be the most interesting. - Lots of nodding, Morgan. - Yeah, I think the next three years, in a way, are quite scary, because Chris Luxon came out on Sunday and he said that a referendum on the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi is on the table. And if David Seymour or Winston Peters push for that, we will have, to borrow Sir John Key's words, 'hikois from hell', and a lot worse, probably, because that is our stake in the ground, really. That is the reason for the Crown being, is Te Tiriti o Waitangi. And if they try to get rid of it, almost they're trying to get rid of their own legitimacy, but also, of course, they're trying to strike at the legitimacy of Maori. - Do you think they'll do it? Do you? - They might have a go. Certainly ACT are saying they'll have a go. However, we have a number of international instruments, jurisprudence, that we can go to ` UNDRIP, World Court of Justice. And a very staunch and strong rangatahi presence now, and staunch and strong advocates for tikanga Maori, kaupapa Maori, matauranga Maori in those new candidates and those new MPs coming into Parliament. We've got a lot more to talk about after this. We're gonna about coverning` governing coalitions ` I'll get there eventually. governing coalitions and a new government and a new prime minister after this. Ko te Potitanga 2023. E whaitake ana a haere ake nei. Looking for home loan expertise? Get one of our dedicated experts from search to signing and BNZ's 24-hour home loan decision promise when you apply with a BNZ Home Loan Partner. Auraki mai nei koutou ki ta tatou hui me ona pukorero. We have Ahorangi Ella Henry, Morgan Godfery and Mani Dunlop with us now. Let's talk about new government, a new prime minister ` a coalition on the right, it appears, that will be leading the country going forward. What does that mean for Maori, Ahorangi Ella Henry? - I think there's a lot of work that's going to need to be done. Some strong lobbying and advocacy is required. Because in the lead-up to this election, some very negative statements were made from some of those now ruling parties about the relationship they want to have with us. And they must know we've survived a lot worse than this over the last 183 years and nine months ` but who's counting? So, you know, we will have our loins girded for a fight if needed. But we will also be open to what kind of relationship we need to have with them moving forward. - Do you think that's one of the reasons why they got the vote they did ` that it played to the voting public who have had enough of it. - It's tenuous, but they will lead, and I can hear in the back of my head the theme tune of Game of Thrones playing as I see David and Winston in the frame together. # Da-da-dum-dum, da-da-dum-dum... # - (LAUGHS) Morgan Godfery, what went wrong with Labour? Bad campaign? Wrong leader? Both? COVID? - All of them. Everything. Everything was terrible. Chris Hipkins, at the start of the year, his first big act as prime minister was to tell New Zealand what he would not do, rather than tell people what he would do. So he came to office, he ruled out a series of policies, most belonging to Willie Jackson ` so a signal there that he was going soft on Maori issues. And then throughout the year, or throughout the eight or so months that he was prime minister, it didn't go anywhere else. That was it. We knew what Chris Hipkins did not stand for but never really knew what Chris Hipkins did stand for. So I think that is where they went wrong, because for all Chris Luxon's faults, for the terrible policies he's proposed on welfare, on tax, on interest rates, on house prices, you name it, you did know what he actually stood for, because he was very clear about what he wanted to do, whereas on the other side, people didn't know what Labour stood for. - Mani, if we have a look at the other parties on the left, Maori Party did their job and more; Green Party did their job and more. So it wasn't an indictment on the left, it was an absolute indictment on the Labour Government. - Mm. I agree, and I think, that just to echo what Morgan has said, there was nothing that Labour supporters, I think, could really pin on with any transformational policy or something that really kind of they could go out there and really fight for. It just felt ` and also, again, there were so many things that happened in the lead-up that we've` David Parker resigning from his revenue portfolio because of what happened around his proposal for the wealth tax ` and that was a great proposal. And as soon as we saw the Green Party announced their tax policy, a lot of that vote went to the Greens. So I think just... (SIGHS) yeah, just weak, just weak on Chippy's part. And I think that is an aspect of where it went wrong, because there was just no... there was nothing to kind of get... Maori Party having bloody flag ` you know, that was their thing, flying their flags on the road. There was nothing that Labour supporters, I don't think, really felt that they could literally, metaphorically and physically fly their flag for. - OK, so whilst we're talking about those parties on the left that did well ` and the Greens did well, not only in their party vote but also won seats, as we talked about ` Rongotai, Wellington Central ` good candidates, but also, it seems another indictment against the Labour Party and their policies and also the party in those seats. But Rongotai is not a Green seat. Wellington Central is not a Green seat. - Well again, the party vote in Wellington is very high, in terms of the Green Party party vote, usually. I think for Rongotai specifically, Paul Eagle wasn't doing a very good job in the electorate. He also went to run for mayor and he came back, and then I think, you know, that lost a lot of the support for the Labour Party. Fleur Fitzsimons, I don't think he had the same kind of landing within that electorate, and Julie Anne has been quite visible. Go to Wellington Central, and I will probably get Morgan to talk about Ngati Awa princess, Tamatha. (ALL LAUGH) E whiua te rakau ki a koe. Off you go, my bro. You can talk about Welly. - I just wanna say, a month ago I picked her and I was laughed out of the room. But because of her profile in the city as well. - Yeah, I think she was always gonna win. She was gonna win cos she's a Paul from Ngati Awa. But she was also going to win because she had the secret recipe for winning an election. And that was to turn out people who looked and spoke like she did. So she turned out young people, she turned out women. And she turned them out in huge numbers when she ran for council. And then she did it again. She scaled it and turned them out in huge numbers in an electorate race as well. And that's actually the lesson for all parties. - Which talks to the mana wahine point that Ella Henry mentioned earlier. The counter to that is, and the counterfactual, is New Zealand First. - And there they are again, like some phoenix rising from the ashes. And, you know, I've said this frequently. We all have. You can never count Winston out. We will only really know ` and they haven't said what they stood for, really, truth be told, apart from some very odd TikToks from Shane. Um... Phew! So the next month is going to really be about them putting their pou in the ground. And let's be very clear, you know, we did well under the Provisional Growth Fund that they brought in, a lot of Maori communities. So it will be interesting to see what their position does with their own political aspirations and for us. - There is still a lot of vote, I wanna use the word 'conspiratorial'. I mean, look at Loyal New Zealand. I mean, there were 1.3% or whatever it was. You had some other parties who didn't quite make 1%, but you collate that vote together with New Zealand First, you end up with 10% or 11%, Ella Henry. - It was a good 5% that were in that sort of also-ran category. The TOPs, I think, did extremely well. But I do think the reality is, it's all about messaging, and we are having to be very clear now that how political parties package themselves and market themselves in the lead-up to elections is critical. - What kind of prime minister will Christopher Luxon be, Morgan? Because I watched him on Saturday night, and he basically followed every footstep and every hand movement and every word that John Key did in 2008 ` 'I wanna be a prime minister for all New Zealand.' What kind of prime minister will he be, do you think? - That's a good point, actually ` he probably does take his instructions from Sir John Key, who we saw on the night too. He had arrived at the National Party party. He was there to support Chris Luxon. He was there to endorse Chris Luxon during the campaign. And Chris Luxon very much sees John Key's prime ministership as his model. The only trouble for Chris Luxon is he's no John Key. So we're not going to see the same kind of popularity. We're not going to see the same kind of cohesion, as well. Because although that National Government was difficult for nine years for many people, at the same time, John Key had an instinct to reach out. His instinct was not to shut down. So Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples could attest to this ` and have publicly many times ` that he was easy to work with; he would pick up the phone. Would Chris Luxon pick up the phone if Shane Jones or Winston Peters called? I'm not sure he would, unless he needed them. - Shouldn't he pick up the phone to the Maori Party? Or do you not think that will happen at all, Mani? - I hopefully don't` I don't think it will. He fundamentally ruled out working with the Maori Party. And he did that really bizarre press conference on a random weekday at 9am in the morning to say that he wasn't gonna work with them. And that was the beginning of the campaign, which kinda set the scene for who he was running for. And then on the other side, the Maori Party have said they're not ruling anyone out, but anyone they talk to, they have to have a Treaty-centric vision for Aotearoa. And based on what we're seeing with this potential coalition government, there's nothing very Treaty-centric about it. - OK. We have much more to discuss after the break. Kia ita tonu mai ra e te iwi. We have more from our sterling panel on The Hui. A taihoa ake nei. - Kia ora mai ano. Ko Te Hui tenei. E nga iwi e mihi atu ana anei ki a koutou katoa. Ko Ahorangi Ella Henry, ko Morgan Godfery ratou ko Mani Dunlop nga pukorero i tenei hotaka nei. Let's talk about the issues that the Maori Party raised very early on ` I think even after the booths closed, they talked about the issues that Maori voters in particular were having when they were going to vote or even trying to get a special vote in. You would have thought the Electoral Commission would have dealt with a lot of this stuff by now. How is this still happening? - It's a resourcing thing. I shared the panel with David Letele, and he was getting updates every 15 minutes before voting closed. People were sending him emails panicking. 'They've run out of Manurewa.' 'I'm being asked for my ID or passport and so and so.' So because he had so many helpers out in South Auckland, I was kinda privy to what was going on, and it felt chaotic. And he was saying people are walking away. If that is happening in this country in 2023, that is a tragedy, and it's a scandal, and it better be investigated. - Will it be investigated, though? We've talked about this a lot, right, over past election campaigns? I agree that an investigation should happen, if that is the case. And it feels like it wasn't just out south, either. I mean, there was a lot of it happening in Mt Albert electorate, around Grey Lynn ` places like Grey Lynn! - Yeah, a similar thing happened in, I think it was 2017, where Maori were showing up to vote, but they didn't have a printed copy of the Maori Roll. And without a printed copy, those people then had to cast a special vote, which could take upwards of 10, 20, 30, even sometimes up to an hour. I was in line in Central Auckland for an hour, then had to cast a special vote in a separate line, which took another hour to do so. All the people who were leaving that line were either... well, they were non-white, they were not Pakeha. They were Maori people, Pacific people, and Asian people who were leaving that line. It was only the tragics and the diehards who were sticking around to do it. The Electoral Commission said it was an IT issue. - Of course they will. - It probably was. But why were there not more printed rolls? Why were they not other processes, and so on and so on? - You couple that with the general turnouts, and what we're hearing is about 800,000 people didn't cast a vote, or over that. That's about 20% to 25% of New Zealanders who didn't cast a vote. One assumes ` and I hate saying these things like this ` but one assumes a lot of them will be us. - Ae. Yeah, they will. And I think, also, remember the changes with the electoral law around switching rolls. And so what I've been hearing anecdotally is that those who may have switched from Maori to general or general to Maori right on that cut-off, they weren't necessarily recorded, and so they had to cast special votes. So if we did have a lot of Maori switching to the Maori roll, then yes, that would prove that theory right. But generally, I've been at a lot of booths around the country, in my time as a reporter and covering elections, and when you're at the booths, there's always our pakeke, especially, who are really confused by the process. Getting them there to the booths in the first place is a win. Getting them to stay there and actually go through that process is another win. And they don't have the resources. This is not a whakaiti on the kaimahi who are on the ground, who are trying to deal with the chaotic situation that they were put in. But the resourcing is not there. And there needs to be a lot more done to have our booths in marae, have booths in places that our people feel comfortable to go to. I specifically was like, 'Where can I go to a marae to vote?' I couldn't find any. So, you know, just to make the experience, you know, for us. - Should also be a focus, particularly where they know there's an issue with Maori voter turnout, should there be a focus, then also, on looking at something like doing an early voting campaign, particularly for Maori and Pacific Island communities who have traditionally had a lack of access to good places to be able to put their votes...? - There will be no race-based policies here, my dear! - No, no, you're right, though. You're right. - I'm sorry, that's not gonna happen at the next election. However, we can certainly be advocating for more resources to go in at the front end, where every booth should have printed and access to the soft copy, because if there's rain and it's cut out, you know. So there's resourcing ` that needs to be addressed. I also think there should be investigation of the training. Because when I went in to vote, all you need is somebody ` and you know our people can be a bit fragile, when somebody says to you, 'How do you say your name? How do you spell...? What's that name?' And they don't know, and you've got a beautiful, ancient whakapapa name, and you've got somebody there going, 'How do you spell that?' - Yeah. - It's a deterrent. - I just wanna give a mihi to the person who was at my booth, because she made me say my name, Julian Rewi Petera Wilcox, and she went, 'Tena koe!' Young Pakeha girl. So I just wanted to mihi to her. But unfortunately, that is not the experience that we're seeing throughout Aotearoa. I forgot to ask you, actually, when we were talking about the general electorates, and in particular the other parties, does Chris Hipkins hang on as leader of the Labour Party for the next three years? The reason why I'm asking this question ` Green Party, two co-leaders, one male, one female, one Maori, one Pakeha; Maori Party, two co-leaders, one male, one female, and obviously Maori. Does Labour need to change their game up here to appeal and be a much more broader church in the way that it holds its leadership? - You're just trying to employ as a Maori Labour leader, over there, bro! He's strategising! - (LAUGHS) No, no. Male, female... Well, let's talk about. Let's talk about it. - Look, ancient Maori leadership was always relational and collective. That's how we managed to survive, you know, colonising the South Pacific for 3000 years. So I think there's merit in it. But I'm not 100% sure if those in power in labour are ready to let go of power in quite that way, because it does require relinquishing power, collective leadership. But they just got smashed, Professor. - Yeah. And who is on the horizon, if Hipkins...? Who do you think? - I think you kinda have to look at it from the perspective of a Maori MP in the Labour caucus. Because in a way, who would want it? Who would want that leadership? Because you're not necessarily ` or you're not only accountable to your community, wherever that might be, you're also accountable to the Labour Party and to a New Zealand community, a wider New Zealand community. So to be Maori in that kind of environment, it can take away little bits of yourself day by day, little bits of your family day by day, as well. So I think we have to kind of look at it from the other perspective of, do we really wanna send Maori people into that environment, to begin with? - Yeah. - Yeah. And I also wanna pick up on these young wahine Maori as well, if we're talking about people going into Parliament. Is that going...? I'm not... This is not to undermine them, but I'm worried about how that environment will be for them. It isn't a safe environment. It hasn't been, and we've seen that over the last term as well, and the way and the vitriol that they had to endure during the campaign, and for our Maori MPs. So I think a lot needs to change within Parliament. But back to the Labour leadership. I think that safe hands for six months to a year, Chippy needs to kinda just steady the ship a little bit and have Grant to be able to support that, and then look at potentially who could fill that spot. - Tena koe. And thank you all for not answering the question I put. But it was the correct way to also respond. Nga mihi nui ki a koutou katoa. Professor Ella Henry, thank you for being a panellist for us throughout the whole campaign. Morgan Godfery, you weren't here with us at TV3 on the night, but you did well. (ALL LAUGH) - Thank you, Julian. You guys did all right too. - Mani Dunlop, tena koe ` a part of the Ngapuhi takeover of Newshub. Anyway, nga mihi nui ki a koe. E te whanaunga, tena koutou katoa. Our thanks to our panel and to all our panellists, actually, on our Hui election coverage this year. It has been awesome to have so many skilled and talented professionals offering their perspectives. You can find all of our stories for The Hui on Facebook, YouTube and on newshub.co.nz. Kia mau ki te turanga o Taputapuatea. Haumi e, hui e, taiki e! Captions by James Brown. Captions were made with the support of NZ On Air. www.able.co.nz Copyright Able 2023 - Ko te reo te take. - Na Te Puna Whakatongarewa Te Hui i tautoko.