CAPTIONS BY JAMES BROWN AND FAITH HAMBLYN. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ COPYRIGHT ABLE 2024 TENA KOUTOU, NAU MAI HAERE MAI. WELCOME TO Q+A. I'M JACK TAME. THIS MORNING ` THE CONFOUNDING STATE OF OUR ECONOMY. IS THERE A RUDE SHOCK FOR MORTGAGE HOLDERS JUST AROUND THE CORNER? THEN ` THE NEW SPACE MINISTER, WITH HER VISION TO PUT A SECOND STAGE BOOSTER UP THE INDUSTRY. WHEN WE LAUNCH A ROCKET, IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG, NOBODY'S GOING TO THINK WE'RE TRYING TO DECLARE WAR ON THEM. BUT WE BEGIN THIS MORNING WITH THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION. CHRIS HIPKINS IS ADJUSTING TO LIFE IN HIS NEW OFFICE AFTER LABOUR WAS TURFED OUT OF GOVERNMENT AT LAST YEAR'S ELECTION. THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF 2024 HAVE SEEN THE NEW GOVERNMENT KILL SEVERAL OF THE BIG WORK PROGRAMMES INTRODUCED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO TERMS. GOOD MORNING. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE SPOKEN SINCE THE ELECTION. IN THE THREE MONTHS SINCE THE ELECTION DEFEAT, REFLECTING ON THE CAMPAIGN, WHAT SHOULD YOU AS LEADER HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY? THERE WILL ALWAYS BE THINGS YOU CAN LOOK BACK ON WITH HINDSIGHT AND SAY WHAT WE HAVE DONE THINGS DIRECTLY? IT WAS A CHALLENGING YEAR FOR US. SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WENT AGAINST US DURING THE CAMPAIGN WITH THINGS THAT WERE BEYOND MY CONTROL. I BECAME PRIME MINISTER, WE THEN HAD FLOODING AT A CYCLONE. WE HAD INTERNAL ISSUES THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDABLE, BUT WHEN THINGS I COULD AVOID, THAT LARGELY PREDATED MY TIME AS MY MINISTER. YOU WILL ALWAYS LOOK BACK AND THINK, TO THINK SEVERALLY, BUT THERE IS NO VALUE IN THAT. YOU DON'T GET TO DO IT OVER. YOU HAVE TO KEEP MOVING FORWARD. THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION GETS TO DO THAT IN THREE YEARS TIME. WHAT WOULD YOU PERSONALLY HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY? THERE ARE EXTERNAL FACTORS OUTSIDE OF YOUR CONTROL. LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NEXT THREE YEARS, WHEN WE ARE CAMPAIGNING AGAIN IN THREE YEARS, THE ISSUES WILL BE DIFFERENT, THE PERSONALITIES WILL BE DIFFERENT. WHEN I REFLECT ON OUR CAMPAIGN, I SAT DOWN AT THE START AND SAID A CAMPAIGN LED BY ME WILL LOOK DIFFERENT THAN JACINDA. WE SHOULD HAVE DONE THINGS APPLIED TO MY STRENGTHS, RATHER THAN TRYING TO RERUN THE SAME CAMPAIGN. WHAT WOULD THOSE EVENTS HAVE LOOKED LIKE? THE SORTS OF THINGS WE WERE DOING. I HAVE DIFFERENT AREAS OF INTEREST TO JACINDA. EVERYBODY WILL KNOW THAT. WE SHOULD HAVE BUILT THAT INTO THE CAMPAIGN. WE ARE GOING TO DO THINGS IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS THAT WERE PLAYING TO MY STRENGTHS, LIKE ROOFTOP INSULATION, WHICH WE COULD DO BECAUSE I ENDED UP ISOLATING. I THINK THINGS THAT WOULD HAVE REFLECTED MORE WHO I AM. FAIR PAY AGREEMENTS, MAORI HEALTH AUTHORITY, LIGHT RAIL, RMA REFORM, DEAD. WHAT LESSONS ABOUT AFFECTING LASTING CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT? ONE OF THE CHALLENGES FROM THIS GOVERNMENT, WE KNOW WHAT THEY WANT TO STOP, GO BACKWARDS ON. THEY HAVEN'T YET ARTICULATED A PLAN TO TAKE THE COUNTRY FORWARD. YOU CAN SPEND YOUR TIME IN GOVERNMENT AND DOING ALL THE THINGS THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT DID. IT DOESN'T TAKE THE COUNTRY FORWARD. WHAT ABOUT YOUR GOVERNMENT? WHAT ARE THE LESSONS FROM SEEING THOSE PROJECTS CANCELLED? THAT IS A DIFFICULT THING TO UNPICK. WE ARE FACED WITH EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES. A GREAT LESSON WOULD BE NOT TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL PANDEMIC. THAT SUCKS UP YOUR ENERGY. GIVES YOU AN UNPRECEDENTED MAJORITY. ALSO TAKES AWAY FROM YOUR REFORM PROGRAM. I WAS MINISTER FOR EDUCATION. WE COULDN'T DO HUGE AMOUNTS OF EDUCATION REFORM WHEN SCHOOLS WERE STRUGGLING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS JUST TO GET ENOUGH TEACHERS TO TEACH KIDS. YOU PUSHED AHEAD WITH THE CURRICULUM REFRESH. THEN THE KIDS GO BACK TO THE OLD NCEA. IT WAS A DECISION OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. I HAVEN'T FOLLOWED IT EXACTLY. PUSHING THROUGH MAJOR REFORM WHEN THE SYSTEM IS TURNED UPSIDE DOWN IN A PANDEMIC WASN'T REALISTIC. HOW MANY PRESS RELEASES HAVE YOU PUT OUT THIS YEAR? I DON'T MEASURE SUCCESS BY THE NUMBER OF PRESS RELEASES. AS LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION, I WON'T FALL INTO THE TRAP OF BARKING AT EVERY PASSING CAR. HOW MANY PASSING CARS THIS YEAR? HOW MANY RELEASES? I HAVE PUT OUT SEVERAL PRESS STATEMENTS. I WILL PUT OUT RELEASES WHEN I HAVE SOMEONE TO SAY ABOUT US. WHEN I JUST RESPOND TO WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING, I WON'T JUST PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE. ZERO PRESS RELEASES THIS YEAR. DOESN'T MEAN I HAVEN'T BEEN DOING WORK. YOU SAID THIS YEAR, THE RACE CARD KILLED THREE WATERS. IT IS AN UNNECESSARY DIVISIVE DEBATE. WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT HOW WE MOVE FORWARD AS A COUNTRY. IN 2017, THE TREATY SETTLEMENTS PROCESS, WHICH WILL HAPPEN, WE WILL SETTLE THOSE HISTORIC GRIEVANCES. AS WE COME OUT THE OTHER SIDE, THE RELATIONSHIP MAORI WANT TO HAVE WITH THE CROWN IS DIFFERENT THAN THE RELATIONSHIP THEY MIGHT HAVE HAD PREVIOUSLY, WHICH WAS BASED ON WANTING REDRESS FOR PAST WRONGS. THAT'S WHY WE ESTABLISHED THE PORTFOLIO. WE NEED TO HAVE THAT CONVERSATION. THE WAY THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT ARE APPROACHING IT IS WRONG. IT IS ONE SIDE SAYING WE WILL OVERRIDE THE OTHER. I WANT TO BE CLEAR ON LABOUR'S POSITION. THIS TIME LAST YEAR YOU TOLD ME CO-GOVERNANCE WAS EFFECTIVELY SOMETHING WE SIGNED UP TO WHEN WE SIGNED THE TREATY. WHAT OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES SHOULD BE DELIVERED WITH A 50-50 CO-GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE LIKE THREE WATERS? CO-GOVERNANCE LOOKS DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THE CONTEXT. WHICH ONE SHOULD HAVE THAT 50-50 MODEL? JUST WATER? IT WILL DEPEND. I WON'T SET RULES. IF YOU LOOK AT WATER AND HEALTH, WE HAVE DIFFERENT APPROACHES THERE. YOU HAVE A DEMOLITION APPROACH IN SOME AREAS. IF YOU THINK CO-GOVERNANCE WAS AN APPROPRIATE WAY OF GIVING EFFECT TO THE TREATY, WHAT OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES SHOULD BE DELIVERED WITH A 50-50 CO-GOVERNANCE MODEL. IT WOULD DEPEND ON THE CONTEXT. TAKE EDUCATION. IN THE MAORI MEDIUM SPACE, IT DOESN'T NEED TO BE CO-GOVERNANCE, BECAUSE IT IS MORE OF A DEVOLUTION MODEL. MAORI CAN TAKE CONTROL OF MAORI MEDIUM EDUCATION. IN OTHER SETTINGS, IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO INVOLVE MURRAY IN THE GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS, BUT NOT A FULL DEVOLUTION MODEL. WHAT PUBLIC SERVICES WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR A 50-50 CO-GOVERNANCE MODEL? A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS. GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE. I DON'T THINK A GOVERNMENT SHOULD UNILATERALLY DETERMINE THAT. THESE ARE THINGS THAT THE CROWN AND MAORI SHOULD DETERMINE TOGETHER, RATHER THAN THE GOVERNMENT SAYING THIS IS WHAT WE WILL DO. YOU RESOLVE THOSE ISSUES BY TALKING. YOU DON'T HAVE A POSITION ON THIS? I'VE JUST SAID OUR POSITION, WHICH IS THAT YOU RESOLVE THE ISSUES BY TALKING. THE TREATY HAS BEEN THERE A LONG TIME. IF CO-GOVERNANCE IS THE WAY TO GIVE EFFECT TO THE TREATY, YOU HAVEN'T CONSIDERED WHAT OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR MODEL? IT IS ONE OF THE WAYS YOU CAN GIVE EFFECT TO THE TREATY. WE HAVE DONE THAT USING CO-GOVERNANCE MODELS. YOUR PARTY ACKNOWLEDGES 50-50 CO-GOVERNANCE UNDER THE THREE WATERS MODEL GIVES MAORI AND NON-MAORI DIFFERENT REPRESENTATION. ACT'S POSITION IS THAT THEIR VERSION OF TREATY PRINCIPLES WOULD GIVE EQUALITY TO ALL NEW ZEALAND CITIZENS. DO NEW ZEALANDERS NEED TO ACCEPT THAT UPHOLDING THE TREATY IS NOT STRICTLY UNIVERSALLY CONSISTENT WITH A ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE MODEL? MAORI HAVE A LEGALLY ESTABLISHED INTEREST IN WATER. THE 50-50 CO-GOVERNANCE MODEL FOR WATER ENTITIES WAS ONE WAY OF RECOGNISING THAT. THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE TO GRAPPLE WITH THAT. HOW WILL THEY RECOGNISE THE LEGAL INTEREST IN WATER? THAT DOESN'T ADDRESS MY QUESTION. DO NEW ZEALANDERS NEED TO ACCEPT THAT UPHOLDING THE TREATY IS NOT STRICTLY UNIVERSALLY CONSISTENT WITH A ONE-PERSON ONE-VOTE PRINCIPLE? I DON'T AGREE WITH THAT. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT VOTING FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF WATER ENTITIES. YOUR OWN MINISTERS ACCEPTED THAT UNDER THREE WATERS IT WAS NOT STRICTLY A ONE-PERSON, ONE-VOTE MODEL. I DISAGREE THAT THAT IS A FAIR ANALOGY. IF WE WERE TO SET UP A WATER ADVISORY BOARD THAT INCLUDED REPRESENTATIVES OF FARMERS, IWI, OTHER LANDHOLDERS, INDUSTRY, THAT IS NOT ONE-PERSON ONE-VOTE. THAT IS WHAT THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT SET UP WITH VARIOUS ISSUES AROUND WATER. IT IS NOT ALWAYS GOING TO BE FAIR THAT ONE-PERSON ONE-VOTE IS THE WAY WE MAKE EVERY DECISION. IT ISN'T UNIVERSALLY STRICTLY CONSISTENT IN EVERY SETTING WITH ONE-PERSON ONE-VOTE. DOES IT MAKE STRATEGIC SENSE FOR LABOUR TO CONTEST MAORI SEATS? ABSOLUTELY. MAORI ELECTRICS VOTED STRATEGICALLY LAST TIME. WE WON THE PARTY VOTE, AND SIX OF SEVEN VOTED FOR THE MAORI PARTY. BUT THE ELECTORATES HAVE MOVED AROUND A LOT. NOT LONG AGO THEY VOTED NEW ZEALAND FIRST. NOW THEY CERTAINLY WOULDN'T DO THAT. MAORI VOTERS DESERVE A CHOICE. THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSULTING ON EXPANDING THE COVID ENQUIRY,. WHY WERE THOSE NOT INCLUDED IN THE SCOPE AT FIRST? THE INTENTION OF THE ENQUIRY WAS BASIC. WE WANTED SOMETHING FORWARD-LOOKING, TO LOOK AT LESSONS FOR NEXT TIME AROUND. WITH HINDSIGHT, WHICH WE DIDN'T HAVE WHEN MAKING THOSE DECISIONS, YOU CAN PICK APART ALMOST ANY DECISION. LET'S LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. RESULTS WERE CLEAR. WE HAD ONE OF THE LOWEST DEATH RATES IN THE WORLD. WE HAD THE GREATEST NUMBERS OF DAYS OF FREEDOM IN THE WORLD. WE DIDN'T HAVE AS MANY LOCKDOWNS AS OTHER COUNTRIES BECAUSE OF THOSE DECISIONS. IF YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT IN THE RESPONSE, WHY NOT BROADEN THE SCOPE OF THE ORIGINAL REQUIRING. IT IS LOADED, THE WORDING OF WHAT THEY WANT TO LOOK AT. VACCINE PROCUREMENT... NO PROBLEM IN LOOKING AT THAT. LOCKDOWNS WHICH YOU YOURSELF HAVE SAID YOU WOULD RECONSIDER. YOU DON'T GET THE BENEFIT OF RECONSIDERING. THE REALITY IS, WE DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS HAPPENING. WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD HAVE THE VIRUS. WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT, YOU CAN SAY WE KNOW EXACTLY WHO HAD IT. THAT IS NOT INFORMATION YOU HAVE AT THE TIME. IN THE COMMUNITIES THAT FEEL THEY WERE OSTRACISED OR ISOLATED THROUGH THE RESPONSE THAT AN ENQUIRY WITH A BROADER SCOPE WILL HELP TO GENERATE A GREATER SENSE OF TRUST? AND ENQUIRY WITH A BROADER SCOPE WILL GET MORE PEOPLE MAKING CONTRIBUTIONS. BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A BALANCED RESPONSE. YOU WILL SEE PEOPLE MAKING A RESPONSE WHO HAVE A GRIEVANCE. WHAT THE ENQUIRY FINDS. YOU WILL NOT GET PUBLIC SUBMISSIONS FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL ALIVE WHO WOULD BE, HAD IT NOT BEEN FOR THE RESPONSE. VACCINE EFFICACY AND PROCUREMENTS, BY MAKING THAT INFORMATION AS TRANSPARENT AS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORM OF AN ENQUIRY, WOULDN'T LET GO SOME WAY TO BRING BACK THOSE AMENITIES? THE ROYAL COMMISSION WOULD COVER THOSE ISSUES, WHATEVER THE ORIGINAL SCOPE. VACCINES REMAIN A STICKING POINT FOR MANY PEOPLE. WHEN IT COMES TO EFFICACY, HAVE VACCINES LIVED UP TO ALL THAT WAS PROMISED? IF YOU LOOK AT OUR OVERALL VACCINATION RATE WHEN COVID 19 ARRIVED AND THE MORTALITY RATE, IT WAS A FRACTION OF ELSEWHERE. VACCINATION WAS THE KEY REASON FOR THAT. RAWIRI WAITITI'S MEMBERS BILL WHICH WOULD TAKE GST OFF FOOD. COMES AT A HUGE COST. WHAT FILL THAT HOLE? IF YOU REDUCE MONEY COMING IN, YOU HAVE TO FIND MONEY ELSEWHERE OR REDUCE FUNDING FOR HEALTH, EDUCATION, HOUSING, OTHER THINGS GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO. IN PRINCIPLE, IT IS A GOOD IDEA, THOUGH? IT IS CHALLENGING TO FIND THAT KIND OF MONEY THE OPPOSITION IS FROM A FISCAL PERSPECTIVE? BILLS GO THROUGH A CAUCUS PROCESS. YOU ARE INTRODUCING A PETITION TODAY ASKING THE GOVERNMENT TO RECONSIDER ITS POSITION ON SEX EDUCATION IN SCHOOLS. IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT THAT SCHOOLS ARE A PLACE WHERE ALL YOUNG PEOPLE FEEL INCLUDED, WELCOMED AND SAFE. MOVING AWAY FROM THAT INCLUSIVE MODEL WHICH THE GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT PROPOSE TO DO LOTS VULNERABLE YOUNG PEOPLE IN RISK. THAT IS NOT WHAT RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO. WILL YOU BE PRIME MINISTER AGAIN? I CERTAINLY HOPE SO. WHEN. AFTER THE NEXT ELECTION. WHAT IS YOUR PATH TO VICTORY? JUST WATCH. WE WILL SET THAT OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. IT WILL BE DIFFERENT WHEN WE GO INTO THE NEXT ELECTION CAMPAIGN. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. AFTER THE BREAK, IT'S OFFICIAL ` 2023 HAD OUR HIGHEST EVER NET MIGRATION. BUT WHAT ARE ALL THOSE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DOING FOR OUR ECONOMY? STATISTICS NZ THIS WEEK PUBLISHED ITS PROVISIONAL MIGRATION DATA FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER, SHOWING A RECORD NUMBER OF MIGRANTS ARRIVING IN NEW ZEALAND FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR, AT THE SAME TIME AS WE LOST A RECORD NUMBER OF NEW ZEALAND CITIZENS OVERSEAS. WHEN ALL THE DEPARTURES AND ARRIVALS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR, THE NET MIGRATION NUMBERS ARE EXTRAORDINARY. NEW ZEALAND ADDED 126,000 PEOPLE IN 2023 ` THAT'S ROUGHLY DUNEDIN. ERICA STANFORD IS THE NEW IMMIGRATION MINISTER. KIA ORA. CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR APPOINTMENT. WE ARE GOING TO TALK EDUCATION IN A FUTURE EPISODE. NET MIGRATION FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR, 126,000 PEOPLE. IS THAT SUSTAINABLE? THAT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. YOU NEED TO LOOK AT IT IN A BROADER CONTEXT. WE HAVE HAD AN UNPRECEDENTED TIME WITH COVID, WHEN THE COUNTRY EMPTIED. IN 2021 WE HAD NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION OF 15,000. YOU NEED TO LOOK AT IT IN THAT CONTEXT AND NOT CATASTROPHISE. WE CANNOT HAVE 126 EVERY YEAR. WE NEED TO SAY IT IS RECUPERATION MIGRATION. EVERY COUNTRY IS IN THE SAME BOAT. THERE AS PART OF THAT GOING ON. THE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS WE DON'T HAVE PEOPLE TO LEAVE. ALL OF THESE PEOPLE BRINGING IN, THEIR VISAS ARE FOR TWO OR THREE YEARS. THEY HAVEN'T STARTED TO EXPIRE YET. NORMALLY YOU HAVE PEOPLE LEAVING AND COMING IN. PART OF THIS IS PEOPLE AREN'T LEAVING YET. I NOTED IN DECEMBER WE STARTED TO SEE MORE PEOPLE LEAVE. MIGRATION IS STARTING TO SHIFT. PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO LEAVE AND WE WILL GET EQUILIBRIUM BACK. IN THE LONG-TERM, IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. WHAT ARE THE MIGRATION NUMBERS GOING TO BE FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS? I KNOW YOU WANT TO PUT A NUMBER ON IT FOR 6 O'CLOCK. THIS IS WHAT YOU SAID 18 MONTHS AGO. 'COME BACK AND ASKED ME AGAIN IN A YEAR.' 'LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW MANY KIWIS ARE LEAVING.' LET'S HAVE THAT CONVERSATION. BUT I WILL NOT PUT A NUMBER ON IT. MIGRATION IS A TOOL. IT IS NOT THE END OUTCOME. THERE ARE SO MANY OUTPUTS TO CONSIDER. I AM NOT GOING TO PUT A NUMBER ON IT. MOSTLY BECAUSE ALL OF THOSE INPUTS. THE FIRST THING WE HAVE TO DO IS TURN THIS PLACE AROUND SO THAT KIWIS STOP LEAVING. WE NEED TO LOOK AT STRUCTURAL MAKE UP OF WHO WE ARE BRINGING IN AND NOT BRINGING IN AN SHIP THAT. AND NOT BRINGING IN AN SHIFT THAT. 126,000. WHAT IMPACT IS HAVING ON INFLATION? YOU HAVE SHARON ZOLLNER. 2022, THE RBNZ WITH SAYING WE DESPERATELY NEED WORKERS. THEY PUT THE PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT, WHO OPENED THE DOORS. NOW THE RBNZ ARE SAYING BECAUSE OF HIGH MIGRATION WE MAY HAVE A DEMAND PROBLEM. WE NEED TO TAKE A CAREFUL LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING. WHAT I DO NOT WANT TO DO IS WHAT LABOUR DID LAST YEAR, KNEE-JERK REACTION, WITHOUT THINKING ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES. DO YOU ACCEPT THAT RECORD HIGH MIGRATION IS DRIVING HOUSE PRICES UP? IT IS QUESTIONABLE IMPACT. THERE IS SOME IMPACT. THE HOUSING TECHNICAL GROUPS REPORT SAID THE BIGGEST DRIVER IS LAND SUPPLY. THAT OF THE POPULATION THE SIZE OF DUNEDIN. WE FOUND A 1% INCREASE IN POPULATION MEANT A 2% INCREASE IN HOUSE PRICES. THAT WOULD MAKE PRICES ROUGHLY 5% HIGHER. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS THAT DRIVE THOSE NUMBERS. A BIG PART OF THAT IS LAND SUPPLY, WHICH IS WHY CHRIS BISHOP IS DOING WORK. WE HAVE TO THINK LONG-TERM. ONE THING WE HAVEN'T DONE WELL IS PLAN. CHRISTOPHER LUXON HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR WITH ME AND SO HAVE THE PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION AND TREASURY. WE CAN MESS WITH THE SHORT-TERM SETTINGS. BUT WE NEED A GOVERNMENT POLICY STATEMENT SO WE CAN HAVE TRANSPARENCY AND PLANNING. WHAT IS OUR ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY? WE NEED TO PLAN BETTER. TALK TO US ABOUT THAT. THIS IS THE SORT OF THING WE HAVE IN PLACE FOR TRANSPORT CURRENTLY. WE HAVE LITERALLY ONLY STARTED TO LOOK AT IT. I AM CAUGHT UP IN THE SHORT-TERM SETTINGS, WHICH WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT. BUT WE ARE STARTING TO HAVE A CONVERSATION, AND IT IS EARLY DAYS. I HAVE SENT MY OFFICIALS TO WORK ON THAT. WHAT IT MIGHT LOOK LIKE, IT COULD LOOK LIKE WHATEVER WE WANT. WHAT I WANT IT TO DO IS MAKE SURE OUR HOSPITALS AND SCHOOLS ARE WORKING WITH IMMIGRATION FOR BETTER LONG-TERM PLANNING. ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY IS HOW MANY MIGRANTS WE CAN TAKE IN. THOSE STRUCTURAL SETTINGS, TALK ME THROUGH THEM. ONE THING THE GOVERNMENT SET IN THEIR IMMIGRATION RESTRUCTURE, WHATEVER THEY CALL IT, THE REBALANCE, WAS WE NEED TO BRING IN HIGHLY SKILLED MIGRANTS AND REDUCE RELIANCE ON LOW SKILLED MIGRANTS. HALF OF THE MIGRANTS WE WERE BRINGING IN WERE SKILL LEVEL 1 AND 2. THE GOAL OF IMMIGRATION IS TO DRIVE THE ECONOMY. COVID CHANGED A LOT. BEFORE WE EVEN GOT TO COVID, WE HAD A SWITCH. IT WASN'T COVID. STRUCTURAL CHANGES, I WAS GETTING TO THIS. WHEN WE LEFT OFFICE, HALF THE PEOPLE WE BROUGHT IN WERE ONE AND TWO. ABOUT 1/4 WERE LOW SKILLED. THAT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED. 52% OF PEOPLE LAST YEAR WERE FOUR AND FIVE. CLEANERS, CHEFS, LABOURERS. THIS IS NOT A RECIPE FOR PRODUCTIVITY, WAGE GROWTH, PROSPERITY, AND GETTING KIWIS INTO JOBS. LAST YEAR WE BROUGHT IN 52,000 PRETTY UNSKILLED PEOPLE, WHILE 20,000 PEOPLE WERE ADDED TO THE JOBSEEKER BENEFIT. THAT IS NOT A RECIPE FOR PRODUCTIVITY. WHOSE FAULT WAS THAT? THE WAY THE VISA WAS SET UP, EMPLOYERS HAD TO ADVERTISE IN NEW ZEALAND, PAY A MEDIAN WAGE. WHOSE FAULT IS THAT THOSE PEOPLE CAME IN, INSTEAD OF GIVING THOSE JOBS TO PEOPLE WHO ENDED UP ON A BENEFIT? THIS IS ON THE IMMIGRATION MINISTER. THEY SAID WAGE AS A PROXY FOR SKILL. THEY SET A HIGH MINIMUM WAGE REQUIREMENT, NOT A LABOUR MARKET TEST. THAT IS ALL THEY PUT IN. WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY WANTED. WE GOT FLOODED WITH LOW SKILLED MIGRANTS, RATHER THAN PEOPLE WHO WILL DRIVE PRODUCTIVITY. WHAT I AM NOW FACED WITH IS HOW DO WE CHANGE OUR SETTINGS TO HAVE A STRINGENT LABOUR MARKET TEST, SO THE JOBS ARE GENUINE, WE PUT KIWIS FIRST AND SHIFT THOSE PEOPLE OFF BENEFITS. WHAT SETTINGS ARE YOU CHANGING? I CAN'T GO INTO DETAIL. IF YOU LOOK BACK INTO WHAT WE USED TO, I AM CONSIDERING THOSE THINGS. SOME MAY NOT BE FIT FOR PURPOSE NOW. THAT HAS TAKEN TIME, WITH OFFICIALS THINKING CAREFULLY ABOUT HOW WE SHIFT THIS. SHOULD BE CLEAR THAT THE SETTINGS UNDER THE ACCREDITED EMPLOYMENT VISA AS THEY STAND ARE LIKELY TO BE TIGHTENED? THEY ALREADY HAVE BEEN. IMMIGRATION HAVE CRACKED DOWN ON THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR. YOU HAVE SEEN A SLOWDOWN. IN OPPOSITION YOU ARE OUTSPOKEN ON PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT TO OPEN UP BORDERS. YOU SAID IMMIGRATION WAS TAKING TOO LONG. EMPLOYERS ARE UNABLE TO HIRE MIGRANTS. WHAT I DIDN'T SAY WAS LET'S NOT ASSESS RISK AND NOT VERIFY DOCUMENTATION. YOU COULDN'T DO THOSE TWO THINGS AT THE SAME TIME. YOU CAN BRING IN ALL OF THE WORKERS WE NEEDED IN A HEARTBEAT WHILE MAINTAINING SUPER HIGH LEVELS. THIS COMES BACK TO CHANGING THE IMMIGRATION SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC. I WOULDN'T HAVE DONE THAT EITHER. WE WENT FROM ESSENTIAL SKILLS VISA FRAMEWORK TO THE HIGHLY PERMISSIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC THAT WE WEREN'T READY TO IMPLEMENT. YES, WE DESPERATELY NEEDED WORKERS, AND THEY SHOULD HAVE BOLSTERED THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ACCESSING VISAS. WHAT THEY HAD TO DO WAS CLOSE THEIR EYES AND OPEN THE DOOR, AND THAT'S WHERE WE HAVE GONE WRONG. ARE YOU GOING TO CUT STAFF? NO. FRONT-LINE PROCESSING STAFF ARE ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL TO A SYSTEM THAT WORKS WELL. YOU SAID THAT HAVING THE MEDIAN WAGE REQUIREMENT ACROSS THE ACCREDITED EMPLOYMENT VISA WAS A PROXY FOR A SKILLS TEST. BUT YOU ARE SCRAPPING THAT REQUIREMENT. WHAT EFFECT WILL THAT HAVE? IT'S PART OF OUR COALITION AGREEMENT. PUTTING THE MEDIAN WAGE IN PLACE HAS HAD THE OPPOSITE EFFECT. WE HAD AN EXPLOSION OF LOW SKILLED MIGRANTS. HOW WILL LOSING THAT REQUIREMENT MEAN THAT PEOPLE WE BRING IN HAVE HIGHER SKILLS? THERE ARE OTHER THINGS YOU CAN PUT IN PLACE. UNDER ESSENTIAL SKILLS WE USED TO HAVE A STRINGENT LABOUR MARKET TEST TO MAKE SURE PEOPLE WERE GENUINELY REQUIRED. WE USED TO SAY, HAVE YOU BEEN TO WINZ? WHO HAVE YOU INTERVIEWED FOR THIS JOB? WHAT OTHER STEPS HAVE YOU TAKEN? THERE WAS A LOT OF GATEWAY STEPS THAT YOU COULD SAY, ACTUALLY, YOU HAVEN'T DONE ENOUGH. THAT HAS ALL GONE, AND WE ARE OPERATING ON A PINKY PROMISE. SO THAT IS WHY STRIPPING ALL THAT AWAY AND PUTTING THE MEDIAN WAGE IN, WHEN THERE WAS NO BACKSTOP TO SAY WE DON'T THINK THIS JOBS GENUINE. WE HAVE TO TAKE CAREFUL STEPS NOW TO MANAGE THAT. WHAT TIMEFRAME SHOULD WE EXPECT FROM THE CHANGES? THERE WILL BE SOME IMMEDIATE, AND SOME LONGER TERM. THERE WILL BE SOME THINGS UNDER ACTIVE CONSIDERATION THAT YOU WILL SEE US SPEAK ABOUT IN THE NEXT MONTH. AND SOME FURTHER CHANGES. LIKE I SAID EARLIER, WE DON'T WANT A KNEE-JERK. WE WANT TO SEE WHAT CHANGES THE OUTCOME OF THE CHANGES WE MAKE, AND THEN IF WE NEED TO GO FURTHER, WE WILL. WE HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUS, BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS SHIFTING, AND MIGRATION FOLLOWS THE ECONOMY. WE COULD FIND OURSELVES THAT THEY WILL EMPTY OUT. WILL YOU INTRODUCE THESE CHANGES BEFORE THE REVIEW INTO THE ACCREDITED EMPLOYMENT VISA? MOST LIKELY AFTER. THIS REVIEW WAS ANNOUNCED AFTER NUMEROUS REPORTS OF MIGRANT EXPLOITATION. I HAVEN'T SEEN THE REPORT. IT SAYS IS THE VISA FIT FOR PURPOSE? I HAVEN'T SEEN IT, BUT I WANT TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS ARE USEFUL. THE TERMS OF REFERENCE ARE NARROW. YOU ARE THE GOVERNMENT NOW. IT'S ABOUT TO BE RELEASED. WE CAN'T HAVE THIS DRAGGING ON. WE ARE A COUPLE OF WEEKS AWAY FROM IT BEING RELEASED. THE POINT IS THE GOVERNMENT ARE TRYING TO PUT THE BLAME ON IMMIGRATION NEW ZEALAND, NOT WANT THE GOVERNMENT POLICY SETTINGS WERE. I WILL NO DOUBT HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY. ARE YOU CONSIDERING HUMANITARIAN VISAS FOR PEOPLE IN GAZA WHO ARE RELATIVES OF NEW ZEALANDERS? IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONSIDER. I HAVE ALWAYS SAID IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL DEFINITELY CONSIDER. EVERY WEEK I ASKED FOR ALL OF THE NUMBERS OF PALESTINIANS IN GAZA WHO ARE APPLYING FOR VISAS. I HAVE MADE SURE WE HAVE A DEDICATED TEAM AND AN INBOX IN IMMIGRATION TO EXPEDITE THOSE VISAS. WHY HAVEN'T WE INTRODUCED IT? THERE ARE A NUMBER OF THINGS GOING ON. OTHER THAN CANADA, NOBODY HAS SHIFTED. AUSTRALIA HAS. NO, THEY HAVEN'T. THEY HAVEN'T INTRODUCED A SPECIFIC PALESTINE VISA. THEY HAVE A CATCHALL HUMANITARIAN VISA THAT THEY IMPLEMENT SOMETIMES. THEY HAVEN'T CREATED ANYTHING. BUT THAT VISA DOES APPLY TO RELATIVES OF AUSTRALIANS IN GAZA. IT CAN DO. WE ALSO HAVE A VISITOR VISA. IF YOU HAVE A RELATIVE IN GAZA YOU CAN APPLY FOR A VISITOR VISA, AND WE WILL EXPEDITE IT. WE WILL LOOK TO CONSIDER FURTHER VISAS IF NECESSARY. IMMIGRATION CAN TURN ON A DIME. IN OPPOSITION, YOU WERE FASTER CALL FOR VISAS FOR PEOPLE IN UKRAINE. WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE? VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION IN UKRAINE. IF YOU THINK ABOUT POLICY SETTINGS, IN UKRAINE THERE IS NO WAY WE COULD TAKE REFUGEES. THE UNHCR WOULD NEVER HAVE TAKEN REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE. IN GAZA, I IMAGINE THE UNHCR WILL CALL ON US FOR A RESPONSE FOR REFUGEE VISAS. I'M TALKING ABOUT IMMEDIATE RELATIVES OF NEW ZEALAND CITIZENS. DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY RELATIVES IN GAZA? WE HAVE HAD ABOUT 40 APPLICATIONS SO FAR. THEY CAN'T GET OUT. OUR FOCUS IS ON HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT. MFAT ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH PEOPLE ON THE GROUND. THEY CAN'T GET OUT. IF I PUT A VISA IN PLACE TOMORROW, IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS. WE HAVE GOT NEW ZEALANDERS OUT OF GAZA. IF WE COULD GET THEM OUT, HAVING A GAZA VISA FOR THEIR RELATIVES, THAT WOULDN'T BE OF ASSISTANCE? MY UNDERSTANDING IS... FOREIGN NATIONALS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO EXIT, BUT PALESTINIANS HAVE NOT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY HAVE A VISA, THEY CANNOT EXIT. ONE FINAL QUESTION, ABOUT VALUES. DO DISABLED MIGRANTS HAVE THE SAME OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE TO NEW ZEALAND? IT DEPENDS ON THE SETTINGS. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE A HEALTH CHECK. IT TAKES A LOOK AT THE LEVEL OF HEALTHCARE YOU WILL NEED OVER YOUR LIFETIME, AND IT SETS A BAR. IF IT IS ABOUT THIS, RESIDENCY IS NOT AVAILABLE. IT CAN BE SHIFTED. WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT OUR VALUES AS A COUNTRY, THAT SOMEONE'S VALUE IS ONLY MEASURED ECONOMICALLY? WHAT IT SAYS IS, WE HAVE AN OVERBURDENED HEALTH SYSTEM, AND AGEING POPULATION, AND WE ARE STRETCHED. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH DOCTORS AND NURSES. WE KNOW THE SITUATION WITH OUR HEALTH SYSTEM. I KNOW IT SEEMS HEARTLESS, BUT WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF IMMIGRATION NEW ZEALAND? THE ACT IS TO PUT NEW ZEALAND FIRST. YES, IT MIGHT SOUND HEARTLESS, BUT THERE HAS TO BE A POINT WHERE WE SAY, ACTUALLY, WITH A BURDEN ON THE HEALTH SYSTEM, AND THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT, IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE TO LET EVERYONE... NOT EVERYONE. WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE CAN ENRICH OUR COUNTRY AND OTHERWISE. WHEN YOU MEASURE THE VALUE ONLY ECONOMICALLY, AND THERE IS A BAR THAT IS IMMOVABLE, THAT SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT OUR VALUES. IT IS A BALANCING ACT. WE COULD SHIFT AND SAY OUR VALUES SAY THIS, SO LET'S SHIFT THE BAR RIGHT UP, AND IMMEDIATELY WE HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE HEALTH SYSTEM, AND NEW ZEALANDERS CAN'T GET INTO THE SERVICES. IT IS A BALANCING ACT. IN A PERFECT WORLD, WITH A HEALTH SYSTEM THAT CAN COPE WITH ALL OF THAT, ABSOLUTELY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. IF YOU WANT TO CONTACT Q+A TEAM, PLEASE KORERO MAI. THESE ARE OUR MAIN PLATFORMS ` HIT US UP ON EMAIL, X OR FACEBOOK. COMING UP ` A SPECIAL VISITOR FOR THE NEW SPACE MINISTER, AS JUDITH COLLINS LOOKS TO RAMP UP NEW ZEALAND'S SPACE INDUSTRY. AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND HAS BECOME ONE OF THE STARS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE INDUSTRY. THE LOCAL SECTOR IS THOUGHT TO BE WORTH $1.9 BILLION, SO PERHAPS IT'S FITTING WE NOW HAVE A MINISTER FOR SPACE. REPORTER WHENA OWEN TALKED TO THAT MINISTER, JUDITH COLLINS, ABOUT WHAT A SPACE MINISTER DOES AND WHETHER EVERYONE IS CHEERING ON THE NEW RACE INTO SPACE. WE'RE GO FOR LAUNCH. COPY THAT, BILL. THANK YOU. 2006, CAPE CANAVERAL, AND A SPACE SHUTTLE IS ABOUT TO CARRY A CREW OF SIX TO THE SPACE STATION. AND HEIDE PIPER IS PREPARING TO GO ON BOARD ATLANTIS AS WELL. THIS WAS ONE OF TWO SHUTTLE MISSIONS FOR ASTRONAUT HEIDE PIPER. TWO, ONE, AND LIFT-OFF OF SPACE SHUTTLE ATLANTIS. (MAJESTIC ORCHESTRAL MUSIC) FEBRUARY 2024, AND HEIDE PIPER, A BRAVE VETERAN OF FIVE SPACEWALKS, IS ABOUT TO MEET JUDITH COLLINS, NEW ZEALAND'S VERY FIRST MINISTER FOR SPACE. HELLO. HOW ARE YOU? I'M FINE. HOW EXCITING, ISN'T IT, TO HAVE AN ASTRONAUT VISIT? IN THE SPACE SPACE, JUDITH COLLINS CONSIDERS SHE'S PICKING UP FROM WHERE THE LAST NATIONAL GOVERNMENT LEFT OFF. WE SET UP THE SPACE AGENCY WHEN WE WERE LAST IN GOVERNMENT, IN 2017. WE DID THAT BEFORE AUSTRALIA, DIDN'T WE? YES, WE DID. WE WERE BEFORE AUSTRALIA, AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW AUSTRALIAN COMMENTS THAT THEY THINK THAT WE'RE A BIT AHEAD OF THEM. YES, WE ARE! WE ARE. LOOK, THE INDUSTRY IS JUST GROWING SO FAST, AND IT'S SO MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR US. ROCKET LAB IS CREDITED WITH LAUNCHING OUR GLOBAL REPUTATION IN SPACE. WE ARE JUST ONE OF 11 COUNTRIES WITH LAUNCH CAPABILITIES. BUT BEYOND THAT, OVER 12,000 PEOPLE ARE EMPLOYED IN THE SPACE INDUSTRY HERE, FROM MANUFACTURING PARTS, EARTH OBSERVATION, TESTING VEHICLES, TO R&D AND THE MONITORING OF SPACE DEBRIS. (GENTLE ATMOSPHERIC MUSIC) WHAT ADVANTAGES DO WE HAVE AS SPACE REAL ESTATE? WELL, WE HAVE PRETTY CLEAR SKIES, FOR A START. SO YOU KNOW, WE ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WORLD, ESSENTIALLY. WE HAVE THE BIG BLUE PACIFIC OCEAN SURROUNDING, ON PARTICULARLY THAT EASTERN SIDE. AND SO WHEN WE LAUNCH A ROCKET, IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG, NOBODY'S GOING TO THINK WE'RE TRYING TO DECLARE WAR ON THEM, FOR INSTANCE. AND BUT ALSO IF IT GOES DOWN, IT GOES DOWN IN THE SEA. SO THERE'S A LOT OF ADVANTAGES THERE. THE NEW ZEALAND SPACE AGENCY IS PUTTING TOGETHER A WORK PROGRAMME FOR THE PORTFOLIO. MEANWHILE, THE MINISTER'S KEEN TO ATTRACT MORE INVESTMENT IN THE INDUSTRY AND BUILD MORE AERONAUTICAL TESTING FACILITIES LIKE THE RECENTLY COMPLETED TAWHAKI RUNWAY. SHE ALSO WANTS TO STREAMLINE THE APPROVAL PROCESS FOR AEROSPACE VEHICLE TESTING AND SIGNING OFF ROCKET LAUNCH PAYLOADS. I'VE ACTUALLY JUST MET RECENTLY WITH PETER BECK FROM ROCKET LAB, WHO CAME TO VISIT, AND THAT WAS ONE OF THE ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT HAD BEEN RAISED IN THE PAST. THAT WAS TAKING TOO LONG? IT WAS TAKING A LITTLE TOO LONG. BUT WHAT I'VE SEEN IS THAT THEY WERE VERY HAPPY WITH THE EFFORT THAT THE SPACE AGENCY IS PUTTING IN TO MAKING SURE THAT WE HAVE A PROCESS THAT CAN EITHER BE APPROVED OR NOT APPROVED. SO WITH STREAMLINED PAPERWORK AND TWO LAUNCHPADS, ROCKET LAB SHOULD BE ABLE TO LAUNCH MORE FREQUENTLY. WHAT WILL THAT MEAN FOR RESIDENTS ON MAHIA PENINSULA? WHAT CAN'T WE FILM, PETER? WELL, YOU CAN FILM THE MAJORITY... SEVERAL YEARS AGO Q+A VISITED ROCKET LAB AND THEN WENT TO MAHIA, WHERE A CRAYFISHERMAN TOLD US HIS LIVELIHOOD WAS BEING THREATENED BY THE LAUNCH SCHEDULE. OTHER LOCALS COULDN'T ACCESS THEIR LAND. THEY'VE PUT RESTRICTION ` OH, WE'RE LOCKED OFF. THEY'VE GOT TIMETABLES FOR US ON OUR OWN WHENUA. WHAT'S THE ANSWER TO THAT? I THINK EVERYTHING HAS TO BE REASONABLE. I MEAN, IF WE'D LIKE TO NOT HAVE A SPACE INDUSTRY, WE COULD... I MEAN, ROCKET LAB COULD LAUNCH EVERYTHING FROM VIRGINIA, IN THE STATES, IN WHICH CASE I WOULD BE SAYING TO THOSE CRAYFISHERMEN, HOW ABOUT YOU LOOK AT THE JOBS AND THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUR CHILDREN IN BECOMING INVOLVED IN THE SPACE SECTOR. MUCH HIGHER WAGES, MUCH BETTER LIFESTYLE. BUT ALSO, THESE ARE JOBS FOR KIWIS. WITH THE NEWLY CREATED PORTFOLIO, THE GREEN PARTY'S TEANAU TUIONO HAS VOWED TO KEEP THE PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT TO BE TRANSPARENT ABOUT WHAT WE'RE PUTTING UP INTO SPACE. AT THE MOMENT, YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE MINISTER CAN PROHIBIT OR STOP THE LAUNCHING OF A PAYLOAD INTO OUTER SPACE IF IT IS CONTRARY TO THE NATIONAL INTEREST. BUT THERE IS NO QUALIFICATION WHAT THE NATIONAL INTEREST IS. SO I THINK WE NEED TO GO BACK AND THINK ABOUT THOSE ORIGINAL INTENTIONS, WHICH IS ABOUT THE PEACEFUL USES OF SPACE. I THINK WE NEED TO BE REALISTIC ABOUT THIS. ONE OF THE REASONS THAT UKRAINE IS STILL ABLE TO FIGHT FOR ITS LIFE IS BECAUSE OF SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY. AND WE SHOULD BE VERY AWARE THAT THERE IS OBVIOUSLY AN OPPORTUNITY AROUND DEFENCE. RIGHT NOW THE NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCES PAY FOR SATELLITE INFORMATION ` ON ILLEGAL FISHING, FOR INSTANCE. THE AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH ITS OWN LOW-ORBIT ASSETS, OR SATELLITES. WHAT ABOUT US? IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF DEFENCE HAVING ITS OWN SYSTEM? WELL, THAT IS ABSOLUTELY ON THE CARDS. WE JUST HAVE TO ONE, HAVE THE MONEY ` MAKE IT WORTHWHILE, AND ALSO BE AWARE THAT IT'S ONE OF THE WAYS WE CAN KEEP A TRACK ON WHAT'S GOING ON IN OUR BACKYARD. LOW ORBIT IS NOW CROWDED WITH SPACE JUNK AND SATELLITES. WITH MEGA CONSTELLATIONS PROMISED, SPACE ACTIVITY IN OUR OWN SKIES WILL INCREASE. THAT IMPEDES THE ESSENTIAL WORK OF OUR ASTRONOMY COMMUNITY AND THE BOOMING DARK`SKY TOURISM SECTOR. THEY'RE HOPING A MINISTER FOR SPACE WILL LISTEN TO THEM. WE HAVE TO INFLUENCE THE GLOBAL THINKING TO PROTECT OUR NIGHT SKIES. AND THE WAY TO START IS TO TAKE A LEADERSHIP POSITION. THAT'S A GREAT OPPORTUNITY NEW ZEALAND HAS GOT. OBVIOUSLY THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME ISSUES FOR THEM. AND THAT'S SOMETHING WE'RE HAPPY TO TALK TO THEM ABOUT. THE MINISTER IS WELL INTO HER PORTFOLIO WORK, HAVING SIGNED OFF ROCKET LAB'S NEXT PAYLOAD, A JAPANESE PROJECT TO REMOVE SPACE JUNK. THE LAUNCH WINDOW FOR THAT OPENS TOMORROW. SO, WHAT'S THE MINISTER'S PERSONAL INTEREST IN SPACE? IS SHE A SCI-FI FAN? DOES SHE BELIEVE IN ALIENS? THERE'S BEEN A FEW PEOPLE I'VE MET OVER THE YEARS WHO'VE MADE ME WONDER WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE SOME HERE. SO YOU'RE SORT OF INTO SPACE, AREN'T YOU? YEAH. IT'S REALLY EXCITING. I LOVE TECHNOLOGY, SPACE, ANYTHING MOVING FORWARD. ONE GIANT LEAP FOR MANKIND. I REMEMBER THE FIRST MOON LANDING. AND OBVIOUSLY I WAS A VERY SMALL CHILD, BUT I WROTE IT DOWN IN MY LITTLE NOTEBOOK AT THE TIME, AND I'VE KEPT IT ALL THESE YEARS. AND SO, REALLY, YOU'RE MINISTER FOR SPACE ` IT WAS WRITTEN IN THE STARS. IT WAS. (LAUGHS) AFTER THE BREAK ` AS ONE OF OUR BIGGEST COMPANIES RECORDS A MASSIVE LOSS, WE ASK WHAT FLETCHER BUILDINGS' WOES WILL MEAN FOR THE BROADER ECONOMY. DESPITE GOVERNMENT REVENUE TRACKING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECASTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR, FINANCE MINISTER NICOLA WILLIS SAYS THE GOVERNMENT'S FISCAL POSITION FOR THE MAY BUDGET IS UNLIKELY TO BE IMPROVED. BUT WITH LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, ANZ CHIEF ECONOMIST SHARON ZOLLNER IS NOW FORECASTING TWO INCREASES TO THE OFFICIAL CASH RATE THIS YEAR. GOOD MORNING. I AM GOING TO GET TO THAT BIG CALL IN A COUPLE OF MINUTES. I WANT TO START OFF WITH FLETCHER BUILDING NEWS THIS WEEK. THEY ARE POSTING A SIGNIFICANT LOSS. IS THERE A STORY THERE FOR OUR BROADER ECONOMY? CERTAINLY THE CONSTRUCTION CENTRE IS THE POINTY END OF THE ECONOMY. ATTENDS TO WRITE THE WHOLE BOOM IN THE WHOLE BUST. WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THIS CYCLE. WE HAVE HAD ONE OF THE BIGGEST BUILDING BOOMS EVER IN TERMS OF HOUSING, CONSTRUCTION. POPULATION WAS SHRINKING, AND WE ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE, WITH INTEREST RATES HIGHER. IT IS NOT NECESSARILY ALL DOOM AND GLOOM FOR THE SECTOR. THE SURVEY, THERE HAS BEEN A UPSWING IN WHAT BUILDERS ARE SAYING ABOUT THE OUTLOOK AHEAD. THAT IS SMALL BUILDERS; NOT BIG INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES. NONETHELESS, IT SUGGESTS THERE IS PERHAPS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. A COUPLE OF KEY DATA POINTS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MIGRATION NUMBERS. 126,000 NET GAIN IN 2023. WHAT IMPACT IS THAT LIKELY TO BE HAVING AN OPERATION? IT IS A TWO SIDED COIN. IT IS MORE WORKERS, AND IF THE SUPPLY OF ANYTHING GOES UP, THE PRICE GOES DOWN DOESN'T GO UP AS QUICKLY. THAT IS HELPFUL FOR THE RESERVE BANK, IN TERMS OF TAKING THE HEAT OUT OF THE LABOUR MARKET. WE HAVE THE MOST OVERHEATED LABOUR MARKET OVER MANY MEASURES. THOSE WORKERS ALL NEED SOMEWHERE TO LIVE. NOT MANY OF THEM WILL BE IN A POSITION TO BUY A HOUSE OR LEGALLY COULDN'T ANYWAY, BUT RENTS ARE AT PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE RESERVE BANK. THEY ESTIMATE THAT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, MIGRATION IS A SMALL NET POSITIVE FOR INFLATION. IN THAT REGARD, ANY UPWARD MIGRATION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. NOT A BIG SURPRISE, BUT SURPRISES. UNEMPLOYMENT DATA LAST WEEK WAS A SHOCK RELATED TO MIGRATION NUMBERS. 4%, WHICH WAS LOWER THAN MANY EXPECTED. ESSENTIALLY, WE HAVE SEEN JOBS FILLED. UNEMPLOYMENT IS STILL REALLY STRONG. WE HAVE HAD A HUGE SURGE IN THE LABOUR FORCE GROWTH WITH SO MANY MIGRANTS COMING IN. THE RESERVE BANK EXPECTATION WOULD HAPPEN THAT THAT WOULD OPEN UP CAPACITY IN THE LABOUR MARKET BY NOW. WE HAVE HAD INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT, BUT SOME GO THE OTHER WAY, SO A REAL MIXED BAG. LET'S TALK ABOUT OCR GOING UP 50 POINTS THIS YEAR. IS THERE ANY OTHER ECONOMIST AGREEING WITH YOU YET? NOT YET. WE THINK THAT IN NOVEMBER THE RESERVE BANK SOUNDED TRIGGER-HAPPY. THEY SAID THEY TALKED ABOUT HIKING. THEY PUBLISHED A FORECAST FOR THE OFFICIAL CASH RATE THAT SHOWED 19 POINTS OF HIKING. THEY ARE CLOSE TO THE LINE, AND THEY NEED A NUDGE, RATHER THAN A SHELF. WE HAVE HAD A NUDGE IN THE DATA. WE HAVE HAD UNDERS AND OVERS, AND YOU CAN PICK AND CHOOSE, BUT ON BALANCE, WE THINK CAPACITY IS NOT OPENING UP IN THE ECONOMY AS FAST AS THEY WOULD HAVE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE DIRECT INFLATION INDICATORS ARE LOOKING STICKY. THIS COULD BE A POLICY MISTAKE. CAN'T BE SURE THEY HAVE DONE ENOUGH TO MEET THEIR MANDATED TARGET. IS A NUDGE RETURNING TO THE SINGLE MANDATE? AT THE MARGIN THAT SIMPLIFIES THE COMMS, CERTAINLY. IT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN HOW THEY OPERATE. IT WAS ALWAYS CLEAR THE INFLATION TARGET WAS THE PRIMARY GOAL. IT DOES SIMPLIFY THE COMMUNICATIONS AROUND DOING WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. IF THEY ARE GOING TO HIKE, ; THEY DON'T WANT TO HEIGHT 25 THEY HAVE TO GO 50 TO MAKE SURE IT IS WORTH IT. IF YOU THINK YOU ARE ONLY 25 BASIS POINTS AWAY FROM WHERE YOU WANT TO GO, IT IS VIABLE TO HOLD FOR LONGER. WE BELIEVE THEY PASSED THAT POINT MONTHS AGO. SINCE MY LAST YEAR, WHEN THEY CALLED A HALT TO HIKES, THERE HAS BEEN CHIPPING AWAY AT CONFIDENCE. YOU CAN'T POINT TO ONE PIECE OF DATA. WE ARE TRYING TO GUESS WHEN THEY ARE CROSSING AN INVISIBLE LINE. THERE IS DIFFERENT VIEWS ON THE. WHAT IMPACT WILL THE NEW FISCAL POLICIES OF THE GOVERNMENT HAVE? WE DON'T TAKE A PUNT. VERY LITTLE. THAT FALLS INTO CROSS THE BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT. WE HAVE A GOVERNMENT THAT WANTS TO CUT SPENDING, CUT TAXES. HOW THAT BALANCES OUT ON THE ECONOMY IS UNCERTAIN. THE RESERVE BANK WOULD BE ASSUMING THE GOVERNMENT WILL SOLVE THIS PROBLEM FOR THEM, SO THEY WILL CHILL OUT. PRESUMING MIGRANT NUMBERS DON'T FALL OFF A CLIFF, THE NET MIGRATION INCREASE IS 126,000 FOR THE 2023 CALENDAR YEAR, SO THE AMOUNT OF DUNEDIN. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD WE HAVE INCREASES TO THE OCR AND THE HOUSING MARKET? SOME CENTRAL BANKS HAVE SEEN MORE LIFE IN THE HOUSING MARKETS THAN THEY WOULD HAVE EXPECTED. MIGRATION IS TRADITIONALLY BEEN A STRONG TAILWIND FOR OUR MARKET. THEY HAVE POLICY CHANGES, LIKE THE FOREIGN BUYERS BAN, BUT WE HAVE TAX CHANGES AROUND THE DEDUCTIBILITY AND THE BRIGHT LINE TEST. THE RESERVE BANK WILL BE WARY OF WHAT THE HOUSING MARKET WILL DO. SO FAR, IT IS CHUGGING ALONG. IN JANUARY, HOUSE PRICES JUMPED. HOUSE SALES WERE DIRE. THE SECOND WEAKEST SINCE JANUARY 1992. YOU WEIGH THAT UP. HOW CONFIDENT AS IT, ? PICKING THE DIRECTION OF OUR ECONOMY IT IS NEVER EASY. AT THE MOMENT, IT IS COMPLICATED. AND THE GOOD OLD DAYS, YOU ASSUME THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ECONOMY WOULD CATCH UP. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE STUFF HAPPENING ON THE SUPPLY SIDE. MIGRATION IS A BIGGIE. ALSO THE HANGOVER FROM COVID 19 IN THE PRODUCTIVITY HIT. SHIPPING COSTS WERE AN ISSUE, THEY WENT AWAY AND CAME BACK. THE RESERVE BANK IS OBSERVING THE NET, WITH PROVISIONS. IT IS NOT EASY. WHO WOULD WANT TO BE A BANK ECONOMIST? . BUT YOU FOR YOUR TIME. SO YOU KNOW, AS WELL AS WATCHING OUR SHOW ON TVNZ+, YOU CAN ALSO FIND ALL OF OUR INTERVIEWS ON YOUTUBE. JUST SEARCH 'NZQANDA', AND WE'LL POP RIGHT UP. IN A FEW MINUTES, CHRISTOPHER LUXON WILL MAKE HIS FIRST STATE OF THE NATION SPEECH AS PRIME MINISTER. WE'RE LIVE TO AUCKLAND AS HE PREPARES TO TAKE THE STAGE. CHRISTOPHER LUXON IS ABOUT TO DELIVER HIS FIRST STATE OF THE NATION SPEECH AS NZ'S PRIME MINISTER. 1 NEWS DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR MAIKI SHERMAN IS STANDING BY AT THE WAIPUNA CONFERENCE CENTRE. KIA ORA, MAIKI. WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING THE MAJOR THEMES IN THE PREMISES SPEECH TO BE? TENA KOE. GOOD MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING TWO THINGS WITH THE STATE OF NATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS THAT IT IS A SCENE SETTER. THE SECOND IS IT OUTLINES EXACTLY WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WISHES TO ACHIEVE OVER THE NEXT TERM. IN TERMS OF BEING A SCENE SETTER, THIS IS BASICALLY HIS OPPORTUNITY TO TELL THE PUBLIC WHAT THE LAST GOVERNMENT HAS LEFT THIS GOVERNMENT, WHAT LABOUR HAS GIVEN OVER TO THE NEW LOT. WE EXPECT CHRISTOPHER TO GO IN HARD ON LABOUR. HE WOULD BE DRIVING THE CHALLENGES THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT FACES IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY, HOPING TO SWITCH THE NARRATIVE. THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF THIS YEAR HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY THE COALITION PARTNERS POLICIES, NEW ZEALAND FIRST AND THE SMOKE-FREE LEGISLATION THAT THEY ARE LOOKING TO REPEAL, AT TREATY PRINCIPLES BILL. THOSE TWO ISSUES HAVE SUCKED UP THE OXYGEN FOR THIS GOVERNMENT. THIS IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR CHRIS RELUCTANT TO PUT ON THE AGENDA HIS GOVERNMENT'S PRIORITIES. TALK TO US ABOUT THE SECOND POINT. A LOT OF THE GOVERNMENTS RUNNING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN MADE BY THE COALITION PARTNERS ACT IN NEW ZEALAND FIRST. RUNNING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN MADE BY THE COALITION PARTNERS ACT IN NEW ZEALAND 1ST TO GET THE SENSE THAT CHRISTOPHER LUXTON IS SEEKING TO REST THE STEERING WHEEL AND REMIND EVERYONE HE IS IN CHARGE? I THINK THAT HE WILL BE HOPING TO GIVE OFF THAT IMPRESSION TODAY. THAT WILL BE HIM TRYING TO WRESTLE BACK THAT NARRATIVE THAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER. IT HAS BEEN DOMINATED IN THE FIRST FEW MONTHS WITH NEW ZEALAND FIRST AND ACTS POLICIES. WE NEED TO REMEMBER THAT WHEN YOU ARE DEALING WITH TWO BIG, STRONG WILLED COALITION PARTNERS LIKE NEW ZEALAND FIRST AND ACT, THAT WILL ALWAYS BE THE CHALLENGE, THAT PERCEPTION OF WHO WAS HOLDING THE STEERING WHEEL. THAT WON'T GO AWAY. TO CHRISTOPHER LUXTON'S BENEFIT AND SUCCESS, HE HAS MANAGED TO KEEP A COOL HEAD, DESPITE ALL THESE TUMULTUOUS DEBATES THAT HIS COALITION PARTNERS HAVE BEEN WHIPPING UP FOR THIS NEW GOVERNMENT. HE HAS MANAGED TO KEEP A COOL HEAD. HE HASN'T BEEN LURED INTO THE PRESSURE TO CRITICISE HIS COALITION PARTNERS. HE UNDERSTANDS THEY ARE INDEPENDENT POLITICAL PARTIES. THEY WON'T ALWAYS AGREE AND SEE EYE TO EYE ON CERTAIN THINGS. IF HE ALLOWS HIMSELF TO DRAW INTO THAT, DEFENDING HIS COALITION PARTNERS, THAT WILL BE A SLIPPERY SLOPE. THESE FEATURES ARE OFTEN VIEWED AS A MILESTONE FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AT THE START OF THE POLITICAL YEAR. WITH THE GOVERNMENT NOW THREE MONTHS INTO THEIR TENURE, HOW WOULD YOU ASSESS THEIR PROGRESS AGAINST THE GOALS THEY SET THEMSELVES? YOU COULD SAY THEY HAVE ACHIEVED A LOT, DESPITE BEING THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY THROUGH THE 100 DAY PROGRAM. IN TERMS OF THE FIRST THING YOU CAN GET OFF THE LIST FOR A NEW GOVERNMENT IS SCRAPPING LAWS AND LEGISLATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT. THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS DONE THAT. THEY HAVE A SCRAP PILE HEAP, IN TERMS OF GETTING RID OF THE RMA, THREE WATERS, SCRAPPING THE AUCKLAND REGIONAL FUEL TAX. LEGISLATION, CULTURAL REPORTS. THERE ARE HEAP OF THINGS THIS CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE GOTTEN RID OF. AND DONE AWAY WITH THAT CAN BE SEEN AS A SUCCESS, BECAUSE THEY CAMPAIGNED ON THOSE POLICIES, SO THEY CAN TAKE THOSE OFF AS A WHEN. THE BIG FOCUS OF THIS GOVERNMENT WILL BE ON THE NEXT 100 DAYS, THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO, INTO THE GOVERNMENT. THEY WILL BE WANTING TO IMPLEMENT THEIR OWN POLICIES. THAT WILL TAKE TIME. THOSE THINGS WON'T COME TO PASS OVERNIGHT. THOSE THINGS WILL HAVE TO DO FLESH OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. WE WILL SEE HOW THEY GO. THANK YOU. THE PRIME MINISTER IS DUE TO SPEAK AT ABOUT 1030 THIS MORNING. KUA MUTU. THAT'S Q+A FOR THIS WEEK. FROM THE Q+A TEAM, THANKS FOR WATCHING AND NGA MIHI KI A KOUTOU I NGA KARERE. HEI TERA WIKI. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY AT 9AM. CAPTIONS BY JAMES BROWN AND FAITH HAMBLYN. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. WWW.ABLE.CO.NZ COPYRIGHT ABLE 2024.